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	<title>Toronto &#187; Minnesota Twins</title>
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		<title>The Minnesota Twins and the Path Forward for the Toronto Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/29/the-minnesota-twins-and-the-path-forward-for-the-toronto-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Sep 2017 10:59:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[On Tuesday at FanGraphs, Jeff Sullivan asked his readers &#8220;What if the Twins Won the World Series?&#8221; Although the question was an interesting one, what interested me more is the cause for the article to be written in the fist place. The Twins lost 102 games in 2016, and have now clinched a spot in the postseason [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-if-the-twins-won-the-world-series/" target="_blank">Tuesday at FanGraphs</a>, Jeff Sullivan asked his readers &#8220;What if the Twins Won the World Series?&#8221; Although the question was an interesting one, what interested me more is the cause for the article to be written in the fist place. The Twins lost 102 games in 2016, and have now clinched a spot in the postseason just one year later (the first team to ever do that). That&#8217;s a remarkable turnaround, but one that is a lot less shocking than it would have been had it occurred, say, 10 years ago, before the advent of the second wild card.</p>
<p>Although the Twins will be in the playoffs this year, they aren&#8217;t elite. They&#8217;ll probably finish the season with about 85 wins, or about nine more than the Blue Jays will have come next week. At the start of the season, the Blue Jays were unanimously picked by the major projection systems to be better than the Twins. BP had the Blue Jays&#8217; playoff percentages at 27.3% with the Twins at 20.5%, while FanGraphs had the Blue Jays at 52.1% and the Twins at 5.1%. The Twins just weren&#8217;t supposed to be a good baseball team, while the Blue Jays were supposed to be decidedly mediocre. What happened is that the Blue Jays were bad, and the Twins were mediocre. However, mediocre plays in today&#8217;s MLB.</p>
<p>Specifically, the American League is very top heavy. I define a good team as one that doesn&#8217;t flirt with .500 much. Any team with at least 87 wins would be good by my definition. There are only four teams that meet that standard in the American League. There were five last year, and four the year before that. Six each of the two years before that, and seven in 2012. The great thing about this is that there are five playoff spots available, so if a team is fine &#8211; not good, not bad, just fine &#8211; they can remain in the race until very late in the year. That means not selling at the deadline, and that means increased ticket sales and tv ratings throughout the end of the season.</p>
<p>So where are the Blue Jays in all of this? We all watched the team this year and we all saw a product on the field that seemed to just be bad at winning ballgames. But that isn&#8217;t the truth. The truth is that <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/22/the-blue-jays-were-out-of-their-depth-in-2017/" target="_blank">injuries</a> and complete meltdowns by key players sunk this club. Jose Bautista&#8217;s 10th percentile PECOTA projection entering the year was a TAv of .269 and a VORP of 17.6. That means that the absolute worst scenario that PECOTA foresaw for Jose Bautista was .269 and 17.6. What has actually happened is that Bautista has hit for a TAv of .237 and has actually had a VORP of -4.0. For Kendrys Morales, his .253 TAv is about in line with his 20th percentile projection of .251. Those are two cliff-like drop offs that could not have been expected.</p>
<p>A replacement level team according to FanGraphs&#8217; version of WAR would win 48 times throughout a season. That means that a playoff team in the American League will likely need to be worth about 38 wins above replacement in 2018. From some rough projections, I figure that the Blue Jays can get about 35 WAR from the players they currently employ. That math is <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/09/Screen-Shot-2017-09-26-at-7.16.58-PM.png" target="_blank">pretty rough</a>, but I think it is actually a little pessimistic on certain players. However, what those numbers presume is that the Blue Jays aren&#8217;t getting negative value from any specific position. I made the Blue Jays bench a net zero WAR bench and their last two relievers with zero WAR each. That would be a major improvement over this season where the Blue Jays have lost 5.3 wins from batters performing below replacement level and 3.0 from pitchers. Add an extra eight wins to the Blue Jays right now and things look a lot different with a weekend to go in the regular season.</p>
<p>What that all means is that the Blue Jays have a pretty easy path towards competing for the second wild card spot in 2018. How can they do it? How can they make like the Minnesota Twins and go from bad to mediocre enough to make the playoffs? Well, a bit of good luck would help, but short term free agents would help as well. Creating a bench that isn&#8217;t awful would go a long way. There are opportunities to improve at both outfield corners, as well as the back of the rotation. Adding a few players who aren&#8217;t stars, but aren&#8217;t as awful as Ryan Goins and Kendrys Morales have been, on one year deals, can help this team transition to the fire power that awaits in the minor leagues for 2019.</p>
<p>Trading Josh Donaldson closes the curtain on competing in 2018. Keeping him and the rest of the core around (minus Bautista and Morales) allows this team to be in it next season. Making sure that no roster spots are going to below replacement level players can avoid the problems that befell the team this year and can allow the players who are actually good to not be sunk by their peers. The Twins are making the playoffs this season because they were fine. Nobody has been saying that they want to watch the Twins, because they aren&#8217;t a sexy team. They are mediocre. They get the job done. In today&#8217;s American League, that&#8217;s all that needs to happen. Creating a floor of replacement level will allow the the Blue Jays to do just that, if they so please.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 8, Twins 7; Upton Sinks Twins On Little League Home Run</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/27/recap-blue-jays-8-twins-7-upton-sinks-twins-on-little-league-home-run/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Aug 2016 20:54:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays battled back from an early five-run deficit to take the series and extend Minnesota&#8217;s losing streak to nine games. With Baltimore suffering another blowout loss at the hands of the Yankees, the win gives the Jays a three game lead over the Orioles and puts the ball squarely in Boston&#8217;s court. It was a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays battled back from an early five-run deficit to take the series and extend Minnesota&#8217;s losing streak to nine games. With Baltimore suffering another blowout loss at the hands of the Yankees, the win gives the Jays a three game lead over the Orioles and puts the ball squarely in Boston&#8217;s court.</p>
<p>It was a rocky start for the resurgent Marcus Stroman, but he looked to be settling in after turning a <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/63520384/v1102431683/">nice double play</a> in the 3rd. Then the 4th happened, and it was a perfect illustration of what can go wrong when you live and die by the ground ball. A few weak grounders found holes and the Twins jumped ahead to a 3-0 lead before Stroman got two quick fly outs. That brought Dozier to the plate, and he promptly pulled a sinker that didn&#8217;t sink for a crucial two-run double.</p>
<p>Despite Buck&#8217;s bold prophesies about the offence carrying over from game to game, the Jays looked hapless early against Twins starter Ervin Santana with the red-hot Russell Martin sitting. Santana did not shy away from the heart of the Jays order, bravely pounding his fastball inside. The strategy worked against everyone except for Edwin Encarnacion, who obliterated an inside breaking ball for a two-run jack in the 6th that cut the deficit to 5-3.</p>
<p>The Twins quickly recovered both runs on a Trevor Plouffe fly ball that just barely scraped over the right field wall, but the Jays bats responded with three runs on two walks and back-to-back singles by Donaldson and Encarnacion in the bottom of the 7th to cut the lead to just one run. The damage came off Twins reliever Alex Pressly, who Molitor elected to leave in the game despite a high pitch count and visible signs of fatigue. Pressly has been one of the better arms in the Minnesota bullpen this season, but no doubt he would&#8217;ve been pulled had the Jays bats not erupted for 15 runs the night before.</p>
<p>After a clean inning of relief from Jason Grilli, Kevin Pillar got things going in the 8th with a one-out double. The next batter was Melvin Upton, who quickly fell behind 1-2. With all signs pointing to a strikeout, Upton lifted the ball into shallow right and it landed just under the glove of the diving Max Kepler. Twins centre fielder Eddie Rosario ran over to help cut the ball off, but before he could reach it Kepler accidentally kicked it all the way to the wall, allowing Upton to score the go-ahead run standing up. Roberto Osuna struck out two in a perfect 9th to earn his 29th save of the season.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Melvin Upton&#8217;s go-ahead triple was worth an incredible +0.497 WPA, making it his clutch-est hit as a member of the Blue Jays. The hit raised Toronto&#8217;s winning percentage from 35 percent to 85 percent.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Tulowitzki&#8217;s line out with the tying run on third and two outs in the 7th was worth -0.109 WPA. He squared up the ball but hit it right at Brian Dozier to kill the rally.</p>
<h3>Epic Edwin</h3>
<p>With two outs in the bottom of the 7th, Encarnacion fought a 14-pitch battle against Twins reliever Alex Pressly that after five foul balls ended in a base hit on a scorched grounder that third baseman Trevor Plouffe couldn&#8217;t corral. The at-bat pulled Toronto to within a run, and was reminiscent of Devon Travis&#8217; gritty <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/191983686/devon-travis-battles-through-14-pitch-at-bat/">14-pitch walk</a> that sparked a walk-off win against the Padres back in July.</p>
<h3>Brian Dozier Is Pretty Great</h3>
<p>One takeaway from this game: Brian Dozier is pretty great. The Twins&#8217; second baseman led off the 1st with a single and would come around to score after a stolen base, a sac fly, and a wild pitch. By the end of the 4th, the Twins led 5-1 and Dozier was already 3-for-3 with two RBIs and several outstanding defensive plays under his belt. He may look like a high school gym teacher, but since the start of 2015 he leads all second basemen in home runs (58) and ISO (.235). He&#8217;s no Devon Travis, of course, but with his ludicrously <a href="http://www.spotrac.com/mlb/minnesota-twins/brian-dozier-10669/cash-earnings/">team friendly contract</a> he&#8217;s one of the best assets in baseball.</p>
<h3>Donaldson Builds On His MVP Case</h3>
<p>The MVP continues to come up big in high leverage situations for the Jays. His two-run single with two outs in the 7th was worth +0.118 WPA, which helped vault him ahead of Mike Trout for the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=3&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2016&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=5,d">league lead in +WPA</a>.</p>
<h3>Bullpen Carousel Keeps Spinning</h3>
<p>Gibbons turned to Bo Schultz after pulling Stroman in the 7th and was rewarded with a sloppy two-run inning. The stuff was there for Schultz, but his command continues to be a major issue. Schultz was called up from Buffalo ahead of the game after lefty Aaron Loup was <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/08/blue-jays-designate-aaron-loup-for-assignment.html">optioned to Triple-A</a>, and with newly (re)acquired Dioner Navarro knocking on the door, he may be joining Loup soon.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays will look to knuckleballer R.A. Dickey to complete the sweep over the Twins tomorrow afternoon. Dickey&#8217;s 3.13 ERA for August is his best of any month this season, and he will look to build on his recent success against the weak Twins lineup. They will face righty Kyle Gibson, who has struggled this season to the tune of a 5.09 ERA.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 15, Twins 8; Offense Comes to Life to Destroy the Twins</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/26/recap-blue-jays-15-twins-8-offense-comes-to-life-to-destroy-the-twins/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 27 Aug 2016 02:35:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays offence came roaring back to life on Friday night, scoring 15 times on the way to a 15-8 win against the last place Minnesota Twins. The Jays got the party started early, scoring five times in the second inning off Twins’ starter Pat Dean. Dean, the soft tossing lefty who was able [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays offence came roaring back to life on Friday night, scoring 15 times on the way to a 15-8 win against the last place Minnesota Twins. The Jays got the party started early, scoring five times in the second inning off Twins’ starter Pat Dean. Dean, the soft tossing lefty who was able to limit the Blue Jays to just two runs on three hits in his May 21<sup>st</sup> start, was not able keep the Jays’ bats down for a second time. Francisco Liriano labored through five innings but kept the Jays close – surrendering 4 runs in 5 innings of work, this despite allowing only two hits. After Matt Albers was able to hold the Jays at bay momentarily, Pat Light surrendered a three-run double in the bottom of the sixth inning to Russell Martin that put the Jays up by five runs. Just for good measure, the Blue Jays batted around again in the seventh inning, adding five more runs, two more of which came on a Russell Martin once home run once again. While the bullpen was a bit shaky, it wouldn’t matter tonight as the Jays offence was unstoppable.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Unsurprisingly, Justin Smoak’s second inning home run off Pat Dean was the top play of the game by WPA. The home run staked the Jays to a 3-1 lead that they would not relinquish for the rest of the game. The hit was the first of three for Justin Smoak on the night and increased the Blue Jays chances of winning by 25.2 percentage points.</p>
<h3><strong>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</strong></h3>
<p>With the Blue Jays up two runs heading into the bottom of the 6<sup>th</sup> inning, Joe Biagini ran into a bit of trouble. After surrendering a sacrifice fly to Eddie Rosario, Brian Dozier stepped to the plate with two out and the tying run in scoring position. Biagini’s strikeout of Dozier snuffed out the Twins rally and decreased their chances of winning the game by 7 percentage points.</p>
<h3><strong>Francisco Liriano</strong></h3>
<p>While you wouldn’t want to read too much into a handful of starts, Francisco Liriano hasn’t been terrible in his four Blue Jays appearances this month. While Liriano struggled in Pittsburgh this season, he came into the night with a 3.57 ERA, having struck out 16 batters in 17.1 innings. Liriano struggled with his control tonight against Minnesota, but fought through 5 innings, walking four and surrendering four runs (3 earned) in 5 innings of work. On a night when Aaron Loup once again struggled to get outs, its hard not to think about moving Liriano into the pen. If the Blue Jays other starters remain effective (which is not a given) through September, the possibility of moving the lefty into a relief role still remains intriguing to a Blue Jay bullpen that is lacking a left-handed set up man.</p>
<h3><strong>Smoak Breaks Out</strong></h3>
<p>After going 0 for his last 29 with runners in scoring position and having not started a game since August 19<sup>th</sup>, Justin Smoak broke out of a prolonged slump with a three-run homer in the second inning. Surprisingly, the home run came while Smoak was hitting right-handed, only the third of his 14 homers to come against a left-handed pitcher this season. Smoak then contributed RBI singles in the 4<sup>th</sup> and 7<sup>th</sup> innings finishing the night 3-5 with 5 RBIs. While the often-platooned Smoak typically struggles to make contact, he isn’t as bad as we’ve seen over the past few weeks. Toronto should be able to reasonably expect a few more games like tonight from their backup first baseman/DH.</p>
<h3><strong>Devon Travis Sits Again</strong></h3>
<p>Having not played since last weekend’s series in Cleveland, Devon Travis was held out of the lineup once again on Friday night. Travis, who is nursing an injured finger, was said to be returning to the lineup tomorrow afternoon, according to John Gibbons. As many have already pointed out, the Blue Jay lineup is much more formidable when their starting second baseman is healthy enough to play. Knowing that Travis is close to a return and unlikely to require a stint on the disabled list is positive news for Jays fans.</p>
<h3><strong>Up Next</strong></h3>
<p>The weekend series against the Twins continues tomorrow afternoon at the Rogers Centre. The perpetually almost-acquired Ervin Santana (6-10, 3.33 ERA) takes on Marcus Stroman (9-5, 4.47 ERA) as the Blue Jays look to continue their offensive barrage into the second game of the series.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Battle vs the Bottom: Twins Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/26/twins-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 26 Aug 2016 14:59:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins August 26th &#8211; August 28th Written by Eric Mercer and Gideon Turk The Blue Jays are a good team, which means they are supposed to beat bad teams. That wasn&#8217;t the case earlier in the week when they lost two of three to the lowly Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, but the Blue Jays and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Minnesota Twins</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">August 26th &#8211; August 28th</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/ericmercer/" target="_blank">Eric Mercer</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/gideonturk/" target="_blank">Gideon Turk</a></em></p>
<p>The Blue Jays are a good team, which means they are supposed to beat bad teams. That wasn&#8217;t the case earlier in the week when they lost two of three to the lowly Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim, but the Blue Jays and their fans will be hoping it is this weekend as the Minnesota Twins come to town for a three game set. The Twins, once filled with promise that maybe this season would be different than their recent history, have now faded into the abyss that is cellar in the AL Central, and enter this series with a 49-78 record, or a winning percentage of .386. The Blue Jays should take this series with ease, like they did when they beat Minnesota in three out of their four matches in May, but with the offense scuffling and the pitching suddenly not getting batters out, anything could happen.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Friday, August 26th – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Francisco Liriano (LHP, 6-12, 5.21 ERA)  vs. Pat Dean (LHP, 1-3, 5.48 ERA)</strong></p>
<p>Liriano gets a crack at facing the team that first gave him his MLB shot. Liriano was a member of the Twins from 2005 until 2012 until he was traded within the division to the White Sox. I&#8217;m sure he would love to replicate his most recent performance against his old club. In his last start, Liriano spun his best game in a Jays uniform, going six complete innings and allowing eight hits but only one run. He was able to strike out seven while walking two. The Jays have had some trouble winning the first games of series and Liriano will look to change that on Friday. He is catching a team that is lacking anything special from an offensive standpoint. The 6-man rotation will be questioned throughout the remainder of the season, but Liriano can quell the dissent with back-to-back impressive starts.</p>
<p>Pat Dean is a 27 year old rookie who will be making his seventh start of the season on Friday. He has done nothing to impress thus far in the season, allowing 28 runs in 46.0 innings pitched. This will be Dean&#8217;s first start since June 17 as he is merely making a spot start for Hector Santiago who has a bruised thumb. A major reason why Dean hasn&#8217;t seen success is because he relies heavily on a fastball; 75 percent of his pitches thrown this season have been either a fourseam fastball or a cutter. His repertoire does not match up well against the Jays, who traditionally feast on fastball pitchers. The Blue Jays right-handed dominant lineup also likes left handed pitchers&#8230;so this matchup doesn&#8217;t look good for the rookie. That being said, he did hold the Jays to two runs in six innings back in May, so it&#8217;ll be interesting to see how this one plays out.</p>
<h4>Saturday, August 27th – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Marcus Stroman (RHP, 9-5, 4.47 ERA) vs. Ervin Santana (RHP, 6-10, 3.33 ERA)</strong></p>
<p>Marcus Stroman has had a tumultuous season thus far, but seems to have steadied the ship in the beginning of July. Since that time, he has been one of the Jays best pitchers, accumulating a 3.02 ERA in nine starts. Marco Estrada has been dealing with a sore back for the majority of the season and his last few starts have been shaky, so one of the Jays under-performing pitchers needed to step up. Stroman has done just that. Look for Stroman to keep the offensive-riddled Twins lineup pounding the ball into the dirt. That has been the recipe for success with Stroman throughout his career.</p>
<p><del>Former Blue Jay</del> Ervin Santana will take the mound for the Twins on Saturday. He has been the Twins most reliable starter this season, posting a 3.33 ERA and is near his career-best for walks per nine. Santana has pounded the zone frequently which is rare for a pitcher that throws their slider 37 percent of the time. It is unquestionably his most reliable pitch and shows a tremendous amount of break. The movement on the slider causes opposing batters to whiff 17 percent of the time they swing at the pitch. When hitters aren&#8217;t missing, they tend to bury the ball into the ground, resulting in a grounder 46 percent of the time. The Jays are going to have to be patient and hope Santana leaves some of these pitches up.</p>
<h4>Sunday, August 28th– 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>R.A. Dickey (RHP, 9-13, 4.43 ERA) vs. Kyle Gibson (RHP, 5-8, 5.09 ERA)</strong></p>
<p>The Jays knuckleballer has been fairly consistent in the month of August so far. He has pitched to the tune of 3.31 ERA while striking out 14 in 16.1 innings. The achilles heel for Dickey, as it always has been in a Blue Jays uniform, is the number of free passes he has given up. This season he has given up 58 walks in his 154.1 innings. The game plan for Dickey is pretty straightforward, but much harder to execute; if he can keep the ball in the zone, his knuckler&#8217;s movement will cause batters fits. If he can&#8217;t find the zone and issues some walks, expect the quick hook from manager John Gibbons.</p>
<p>Gibson is in his fourth season in the league, all with Minnesota, and he has seen some backwards regression from his 2015 campaign. Gibson has never been a strikeout pitcher &#8211; his main pitch is the sinker &#8211; so he relies on getting ground balls for outs. That strategy can breed success, but you can hurt yourself as a pitcher by walking too many batters. One of the most valuable attributes of sinkerballers is their ability to get quick outs, thus going deeper into games. Gibson hasn&#8217;t been able to display that effectiveness this season, keeping too many balls up in the zone or out of the zone entirely. If the sinker is flat on Sunday, look for the Jays to put a few of them in the air, which is not where the baseball wants to be when a sinker is thrown.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays welcomed Jose Bautista back into their lineup on Thursday as the designated hitter, a role he will keep for the foreseeable future until he is 100% healed from his injury. However, the team did not start their all-healthy lineup in Thursday&#8217;s game, as Devon Travis continued to sit with an injury in his hand. Toronto has downplayed the injury for the most part, but as the days continue to go by while Travis sits, one wonders if it may be more serious than first imagined. Hopefully it is not and Travis will be back in the lineup throughout the weekend. Ryan Goins was sent out to make room for Bautista, but will be back soon.</p>
<p>The Twins did a bit of a shake up to their pitching staff on Thursday, sending RHP Jose Berrios and RHP Tyler Duffey down to AAA Rochester. They have only announced one corresponding move so far, and coming up will be former Blue Jays pitcher and Canadian southpaw Andrew Albers. He has made one appearance for the Twins in 2016, pitching six innings and giving up three runs on 11 hits and a walk.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Another Entertaining Second Baseman</strong></p>
<p>The Blue Jays saw the league&#8217;s best second baseman a couple of weeks ago when they faced the Houston Astros and ran into Jose Altuve, and they&#8217;ll see another top keystone sacker this weekend when Brian Dozier comes to town. Dozier has lit up the league this season with 30 home runs and a .302 TAv, and will be a tough out for the homer prone R.A. Dickey on Sunday afternoon.</p>
<p><strong>Balls in Play or </strong><b>Strikeouts? </b></p>
<p>Last week, the Blue Jays&#8217; problem was their inability to make contact with the ball as they struck out in virtually every big moment. This week against the Angels, they struck out just 13 times in the entire series. However, their BABIP in their two losses was only .254, a clear indication that even when they were putting the bat on the ball, it just wasn&#8217;t finding holes and leading to runs. Hopefully against the worst team in the American League that will change and the balls that are hit hard start to go around the fielders, instead of right at them.</p>
<p><strong>Pennant Chase Info </strong></p>
<p>The Blue Jays find themselves tied with the Boston Red Sox for the lead of the AL East and only one game up on the third place Baltimore Orioles. The Red Sox are facing the Kansas City Royals this weekend. A couple of weeks ago that would have been an easy assignment for them, but Kansas City has won nine of their last ten to get back into the playoff race. The Orioles, meanwhile, will be facing the New York Yankees, who are riding uber-prospect Gary Sanchez and have been hot of late. If Sanchez and Co. can hit like they have recently, the Orioles won&#8217;t have such an easy weekend as well.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineups</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Minnesota Twins</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Brian Dozier-2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis-2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jorge Polanco-SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista-RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Joe Mauer-1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson-3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Trevor Plouffe-3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion-DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Max Kepler-RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin-C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Miguel Sano-DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki-SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Eddie Rosario-CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michal Saunders-LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kurt Susuki-C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Justin Smoak-1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Robbie Grossman-LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar-CF</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>Things aren&#8217;t as bad as they seem right now in Blue Jays land. Yes, they have lost four of their last six games, two of those to the terrible Angels, but teams go through stretches like this all the time. The Blue Jays just happen to be going through a rough patch in the middle of a pennant race. Against the Twins, the Blue Jays have a great chance to win the series, or even sweep it. If they do, nobody will remember anything about this past week. If they don&#8217;t, let&#8217;s just hope Boston and Baltimore don&#8217;t have such great weekends themselves either.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Know Your Enemy: A Look at Blue Jay Haters Around the League</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/22/know-your-enemy-a-look-at-blue-jay-haters-around-the-league/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jun 2016 14:22:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darren O'Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Farrell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phil Hughes]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yordano Ventura]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to many people outside of Canada, the Blue Jays are not the most loved team in baseball. It’s starting to feel like every other week someone is spouting off, or throwing at, one of the Jays’ best players. I, like most Blue Jays fans, do not understand all of the hate. While I can [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to many people outside of Canada, the Blue Jays are not the most loved team in baseball. It’s starting to feel like every other week someone is spouting off, or throwing at, one of the Jays’ best players. I, like most Blue Jays fans, do not understand all of the hate. While I can understand that opposing players get frustrated with inflated international cell phone bills, Toronto still seems to be receiving a disproportionate amount of Major League Baseball’s vitriol. Most of the time, Blue Jay hate seems to be rooted in talk of disrespect, playing the game the right way and showing up opponents. But I have a hard time believing that Sam Dyson would throw the same shade at Mickey Mantle that he has at Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>In my opinion, all the criticism is just code for the underlying truth that the Blue Jays are good at baseball and appear to be excited and happy about it &#8211; an ethos that doesn’t sit well with some others around the league. It’s always important to know your enemy, so in case you’ve missed some of the more recent dust ups, here is a recap of current Blue Jay detractors, critics and haters throughout Major League Baseball:</p>
<p><b>Minnesota Twins – Joe Vavra/Phil Hughes</b></p>
<p>One of the more bizarre incidents of on-field feuding this season has to be Josh Donaldson’s clash with the Minnesota Twins. While grounding out in the first inning of a Saturday afternoon game, Donaldson ran down the first base line at a speed that was clocked by stadium radar guns at “not playing the game the right way.” This upset Twins’ bench coach Joe Vavra, who said something inflammatory to JD, laying waste to the reputation of the polite and friendly Midwesterner. The next day, when Donaldson took Twins starter Phil Hughes deep, he glared at Vavra as he crossed home plate. This led Phil Hughes to throw two pitches at Donaldson in the 6<sup>th</sup> inning, without being ejected from the game. After the game, Donaldson explained why both this situation and the Trial By Combat policy that Major League baseball adheres to is so maddeningly frustrating. The Twins dislike of the Blue Jays also proves that you don’t need to hit a franchise altering home run for someone to get irrationally offended. In my opinion, Twins pitchers should be more concerned with hitting 90 miles an hour instead of opposing players.</p>
<p><b>Texas Rangers – Rougned Odor</b></p>
<p>Oddly enough, the only person on this list to publicly declare their respect for Jose Bautista is the one who decided to punch him in the face. It seems as though Odor puts about as much thought into his on field actions as he does into his post game statements, deciding that slugging Bautista in the jaw was an adequate response to a late, but not dangerous, slide into second base &#8211; proving that you can’t spell Ranger without rage. Odor’s attack on Joey Bats, has made him public enemy number one in Toronto and the creator of a cottage industry’s worth of t-shirt and punch related memorabilia in Texas. The most recent chapter in the Jays-Rangers rivalry has anointed Texas as Toronto’s most hated rival and should provide plenty of fodder if the teams do happen to meet in the playoffs again this season.</p>
<p><b>Pete Rose – A Casino Somewhere</b></p>
<p>During last year’s postseason run, Doctor Pete Rose fired <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/10/pete-rose-josh-donaldson-alds-game-1-head-injury-collision-mlb">criticism</a> at Josh Donaldson for leaving Game One of the ALDS after potentially sustaining a concussion; comments that indicated Rose himself may have sustained a serious head injury at some point. While his criticisms of Donaldson as a soft player make it abundantly clear that Rose knows nothing about head injuries or Donaldson’s style of play, Rose should know plenty about staying in games too long – just look at his final season as a player in 1986.</p>
<p><b>Baltimore Orioles &#8211; Darren O’Day</b></p>
<p>The longest standing Blue Jay rivalry is the Orioles/O’Day conflict that dates back to a time so long ago (2013) that Jose Bautista wasn’t even sporting his signature beard when the dispute began. The issues centred on a circular series of brush back pitches, celebrated home runs and outs, and retaliatory beanings between Jose Bautista and Darren O’Day. Blue Jay historians also note that the Bautista/O’Day rivalry marks the first usage of Jose’s now famous catchphrases “you’ll have to ask_____(player/manager/front office member/reporter) about that, not me”, and “I couldn’t care less what ____(opposing player/manager) thinks.&#8221;</p>
<p><b>Mike Wright – Norfolk Tides</b></p>
<p>The newest addition to the list is Mike Wright, the <span style="text-decoration: line-through">Orioles’ rookie</span> Norfolk Tides pitcher who argued that Edwin Encarnacion is a less than stellar hitter, when stating “there’s a reason he’s hitting .240.” This was pronounced despite the fact that Edwin spent that very same Saturday afternoon grinding Wright and the rest of the O’s pitching staff into a fine pulp. With O&#8217;Day on the disabled list, perhaps Wright was trying to fill the antagonism void. Let’s hope for Wright’s sake that Oriole regulars Chris Davis, Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Flaherty, and Pedro Alvarez didn’t hear his disparaging comments about players who hit .240. I also can’t believe Mark Trumbo isn’t on that list.</p>
<p><b>John Farrell – Boston Red Sox</b></p>
<p>When someone breaks up with you, they usually have the tact not to mention they wanted to be with someone else all along. John Farrell didn’t give the Blue Jays and their fans the same courtesy. If leaving because you would rather manage a team with Dustin Pedroia on it wasn’t hard enough to swallow, Farrell made some <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/farrell-jays-approach-one-dimensional/">comments</a> that painted the Blue Jays’ front office in a less than positive light upon leaving. This was the very same front office that let him out of his contract to go and take the job he wanted all along. While most divorces involve the division of furniture, record collections or pets, this one saw the Blue Jays get Mike Aviles in the breakup. Be careful Boston, we wouldn’t want him to hurt you the same way he hurt us.</p>
<p><b>Goose Gossage – Wilton Grove Retirement Community</b></p>
<p>If you heard Gossage’s <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14943065/goose-gossage-rips-jose-bautista-toronto-blue-jays-nerds-ruining-baseball">rant</a> this winter, the one in which he calls Jose Bautista a “f&#8212;ing disgrace,&#8221; you were probably concerned for a man who had wandered away from his seniors tour just long enough to voice his displeasure with how the youths of today are ruining baseball. Jose Bautista knew as much, responding only that he was not going to get into it with him. Gossage was quickly reunited with his tour group and promptly offered a job in the Diamondbacks’ front office under Dave Stewart.</p>
<p><b>Kansas City Royals – Yordano Ventura</b></p>
<p>The stupidest thing about the Jays’ feud with Yordano Ventura is that it was born out of a game that he wasn’t even playing. After the Jays and Royals cleared benches on August 3<sup>rd</sup> of 2015, Ventura sent and then deleted a very critical tweet directed at Jose Bautista. Then, in the ALCS, he got bent out of sorts when Troy Tulowitzki asked for time too close to when Hurricane V wanted to deliver his next pitch. Ventura proceeded to stare Tulo down in little response. <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article82483682.html">This was not Ventura’s first or last altercation</a> with an opposing player or team. There’s an old expression that may be applicable here: If you run into an a—hole in the morning, you run into an a—hole. If you run into a—holes all day, maybe you’re the a—hole? After supposedly apologizing to Bautista about his comments, there have been <a href="http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/6/8/yordano-ventura-openly-talked-about-hitting-jose-bautista-is-an-idiot">reports</a> about his intentions to hit Jose Bautista the next time he faces him; proving that he has learned absolutely nothing.</p>
<p><b>Adam Dunn – Retired Because he Doesn&#8217;t Like Baseball</b></p>
<p>You know, this one just might be on Toronto. Well, General Manager J.P. Ricciardi more specifically. Ricciardi famously called out Adam Dunn for “not even liking baseball all that much” &#8211; the 2008 equivalent of calling someone ‘low energy.&#8217; Dunn responded by calling Ricciardi a clown, hilariously confirming with reporters that they could use the word clown if they liked. Sure, Adam Dunn is built more like Little John than your prototypical baseball player, having what my dad would describe as a ‘big middle,’ but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t care about baseball. Even a staunch Jays’ supporter like me would say J.P. was perhaps a little out of line on this one.</p>
<p>Since the Blue Jays emerged as a playoff and World Series contender over the past two years, the bad blood between Toronto and the rest of baseball has increased substantially. As annoying as it can be to hear yet another example of someone having a mostly made up problem with your favorite team, take solace in the fact that the Jays are good enough to take their revenge by winning games, and (hopefully) not throwing at people.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 3, Twins 1; Successful Stroman Silences Minnesota</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/22/recap-blue-jays-3-twins-1-successful-stroman-silences-minnesota/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 22 May 2016 20:51:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Molly Tissenbaum]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2963</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After a disappointing 8th inning in yesterday&#8217;s game, the now last place Blue Jays were all business this afternoon in Minnesota. Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson went back to back to start the game in a three run-first inning, the first time that the Blue Jays have gone back to back to start a game [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After a disappointing 8th inning in yesterday&#8217;s game, the now last place Blue Jays were all business this afternoon in Minnesota. Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson went back to back to start the game in a three run-first inning, the first time that the Blue Jays have gone back to back to start a game since 2006 when Alex Rios and Frank Catalanatto did it. Marcus Stroman took the hill looking to rebound after a less than stellar start against the Rays his last time out. Stroman looked comfortable and in control, and he pitched into the 8th inning, which eased the pressure on the struggling bullpen, which has allowed 27 of 62 inherited runners to score this year.</p>
<p>Things got heated again for the Blue Jays in the 5th inning when Twins starter Phil Hughes threw two pitches at Josh Donaldson, which prompted John Gibbons to exit the dugout, argue with the homeplate umpire, and get ejected again. In that same 5th inning, Kevin Pillar continued to dazzle in the outfield with another diving catch, taking away what looked like a sure extra base hit from Brian Dozier and kept Kurt Suzuki, who was hit by a pitch earlier in the inning, from scoring on the play.</p>
<p>Michael Saunders continued to swing a hot bat this afternoon going two for three, and scored a run. Roberto Osuna came in with two outs in the 8th inning and retired the batter on one pitch, ending the threat that started with Stroman surrendering back to back singles. Stroman gave up just three hits, two walks, and struck out three over seven and two thirds innings. Osuna got the four out save, and the Jays took three of four from the Twins.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the 8th inning Danny Santana singled, sending Kurt Suzuki, who had just record this 1000th career hit, to second base with nobody out. This had a WPA of .122.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Twins threatened in the 8th inning, with back to back singles from Suzuki and Santana to start the inning. Brian Dozier then hit a ball on the ground to Josh Donaldson at third, who turned a double play by stepping on the bag and throwing across the diamond to Justin Smoak, with a WPA of -.236.</p>
<h3>RISP</h3>
<p>The longball was the saving grace for the Blue Jays this afternoon, as they continued to be unable to produce with runners in scoring position. They were 0 for 8 today with runners in scoring position, and left seven runners on base. In Saturday&#8217;s loss, the Jays left five runners on base. But it&#8217;s not all bad news, as the Jays are starting to be more consistent all the way through the lineup. Russel Martin and Edwin Encarnacion were the only two Blue Jays who went without a hit in Sunday&#8217;s ballgame.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will leave Minnesota and head to New York to prepare for a three game set against the Yankees starting on Tuesday. The Blue Jays will send R.A. Dickey to the hill, who is 2-5 on the year, to face Nathan Eovaldi, who is 4-2 on the year with a 4.44 ERA.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Twins 5, Blue Jays 3; Jays Unravel in the 8th</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/21/recap-twins-5-blue-jays-3-jays-unravel-in-the-8th/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2016 20:59:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2943</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After Josh Donaldson was thrown out of the game in the first inning, the Blue Jays’ offence reverted back to its bizarre 2016 form on Saturday afternoon in Minnesota. Facing Twins’ rookie lefty Pat Dean (who?), who had allowed 14 hits in his first eight big league innings, the Blue Jays managed just three hits in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After Josh Donaldson was thrown out of the game in the first inning, the Blue Jays’ offence reverted back to its bizarre 2016 form on Saturday afternoon in Minnesota. Facing Twins’ rookie lefty Pat Dean (who?), who had allowed 14 hits in his first eight big league innings, the Blue Jays managed just three hits in six innings. The only runs they managed to score came on a two-run homer from Jose Bautista. On the pitching side of things, JA Happ continued to impress, taking a shutout into the eighth inning. However, while Toronto appeared to be cruising towards its third win in a row, the game unraveled in that eighth inning. Happ surrendered a two run double to Danny Santana, and the bullpen wasn’t able to keep things close, as Gavin Floyd surrendered a three run home run to Eduardo Nunez two hitters after Happ was removed from the game. Kevin Jepsen would close things out (while allowing a home run to Michael Saunders) to add another L to the Blue Jays record. To add insult to injury, the Jays were also the first team to surrender five runs to the Minnesota Twins in one inning this season.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Danny Santana’s 8<sup>th</sup> inning double of J.A. Happ increased Minnesota’s chance of winning by 40.4 percentage points and set the stage for Nunez&#8217;s three run home run that would ultimately win them the game.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>On a pretty throw by Kevin Pillar, Eduardo Nunez was thrown out at third base after a Miguel Sano fly out during the fourth inning. While the play ultimately didn’t crush Minnesota’s ability to win the game, it did reduce their probability of winning by a game worst 12.4 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Game Notes</h3>
<h4>Ump Show in Minnesota</h4>
<p>Josh Donaldson was ejected in the first inning for shouting something in the direction of umpire Toby Banser after grounding out. Donaldson wasn&#8217;t even talking to Banser &#8211; <a href="https://twitter.com/SNBarryDavis/status/734123488072597505" target="_blank">he was responding to Twins players yelling at him</a> &#8211; but the home plate umpire couldn&#8217;t figure that out and ejected the reigning MVP. Between umpires’ short fuses when it comes to ejecting both players and managers, and their inability to handle in game conflicts between teams without escalation, it can be very frustrating for fans of the game and casual viewers. This is especially true when the best players are forced to watch the game from the clubhouse.</p>
<h4>Controlling the Running Game</h4>
<p>Much has been said about Martin’s offensive struggles this season, but Martin has also struggled behind the plate. After leading the league last year in caught stealing rate, Martin is just 5/17 on the season. He was battling some nagging injuries earlier on this season, and his difficulties throwing people out are more than likely attributed to this than a drastic drop off in defensive ability. Danny Santana has been running frequently against Martin this series and had third base stolen again today, if not for Brian Dozier being hit with a pitch. Martin has been looking a little bit better at the plate of late; look for him to start to turn things around defensively too.</p>
<h4>Jose Bautista: Leadoff hitter</h4>
<p>Jose may prefer to hit lower in the order, but the leadoff role appears to be agreeing with him. Bautista homered and walked for a second straight day as John Gibbons continued to roll with the newly shuffled lineup. While Jose does posses far more power than your typical leadoff hitter, it has been nice seeing one of the team’s best hitters get more plate appearances than anyone else in the lineup.</p>
<h4>Up Next</h4>
<p>The Jays series finish their four game series in Minnesota tomorrow afternoon 2:00 EST when Marcus Stroman (4-1, 4.23 ERA) takes on Phil Hughes (0-1, 4.50 ERA). After losing two series to Texas and Tampa Bay, a series win in Minnesota would put the Jays back within two games of the .500 mark.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Bruce Kluckhohn-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 9, Twins 3; Jays Bats Breakout in Minnesota</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/20/recap-blue-jays-9-twins-3-jays-bats-breakout-in-minnesota/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2016 03:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[9 runs]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[While the Jays’ struggled to put up runs early on against Minnesota curveballer Tyler Duffey, the team broke through in the 6th inning, scoring 5 runs and staking Aaron Sanchez to a 7-1 lead. The newly re-arranged lineup paid dividends for the Blue Jays as leadoff hitter Jose Bautista hit a three run home run [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While the Jays’ struggled to put up runs early on against Minnesota curveballer Tyler Duffey, the team broke through in the 6<sup>th</sup> inning, scoring 5 runs and staking Aaron Sanchez to a 7-1 lead. The newly re-arranged lineup paid dividends for the Blue Jays as leadoff hitter Jose Bautista hit a three run home run off Trevor May to provide more than enough breathing room for Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez was both dominant and efficient tonight, striking out 7 without issuing a walk, throwing 96 pitches over 7 innings of work.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>While it didn’t give the Jays’ the breathing room they needed, Josh Donaldson’s two run shot in the third inning off Tyler Duffey was the top play of the game by WPA, increasing the Jays’ chances of winning by 20.7 percentage points. The homer scored new leadoff hitter, Jose Bautista, who singled ahead of Donaldson.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Despite two hits, including an RBI double in the 6<sup>th</sup>, the bottom play of the game by WPA was the double play Troy Tulowitzki hit into during the top of the second inning. The double play grounder decreased the probability of a Jays’ win by 10.8 percentage points.</p>
<h3>The End of the Goins Era</h3>
<p>It appears as though the Ryan Goins era in Toronto may be nearing its end. While Go-Go is still loved by many factions of the Blue Jays’ fanbase for his stellar defensive play, it appears as though the team’s patience and John Gibbons’ leash is getting shorter and shorter. Gibbons wasted no time pinch-hitting for Goins tonight, opting for Paredes in the 5<sup>th</sup> inning when his spot in the order came up with two out and two on. The slumping Goins, who was recently demoted into a platoon with Darwin Barney, has played even more sparingly since the acquisition of bat first utility infielder Jimmy Paredes. With Devon Travis currently in Buffalo on a rehab assignment, barring injury, Goins time with the big club may be numbered.</p>
<h3>Michael Saunders: Revelation</h3>
<p>Michael Saunders continued his strong 2016 campaign with a three hit night in Minnesota. This raised the man some call &#8220;Bone-on-Bone&#8221; up to a .319 average on the season. There has been a lot to like about Michael Saunders so far this season, especially watching him hang in against left handed pitchers (his 7<sup>th</sup> home run of the season was hit against a lefty tonight). While Saunders can be expected to play a big role in lengthening the Jays’ lineup, we should expect some regression, particularly in the batting average department, as he entered the night with a .400 BABIP. There’s no reason to think the power won’t continue, but with his surgically repaired knee and a .400 BABIP, expect the average to dip.</p>
<h3>Twins Pitching: Good for What Ails You</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays offence erupted for the first time in several weeks against a Minnesota team that came into the game, third last in the league in ERA (4.90). With two hits again tonight, Troy Tulowitzki appears to be turning things around while Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista both went deep. Is this the turnaround we’ve all been anticipating? It will take more than a few games at Target Field to tell for certain, but tonight’s outburst was definitely a positive sign. If this indeed the beginning of the turnaround, this off-season’s hotly debated topic of who should leadoff may be finally answered: Jose Bautista.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays series in Minnesota continues tomorrow afternoon at 2:00 EST when JA Happ (5-1, 3.40 ERA) looks to rebound from his worst start of the season. He will go against the (you guessed it) soft tossing Pat Dean (0-1, 4.50 ERA).</p>
<p><em>Lead Image Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 3, Twins 2; Biagini Grants Wish and Saves Win</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/19/recap-blue-jays-3-twins-2-biagini-grants-wish-and-saves-win/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 20 May 2016 03:38:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[On Star Wars night at Target Field, this wasn&#8217;t the Blue Jays offense you were looking for. Despite a reshuffled lineup that featured Jose Bautista leading off, the Blue Jays struggled to score and had to work hard to capitalize on another great start from Marco Estrada. They finally received some timely hits and were [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Star Wars night at Target Field, this wasn&#8217;t the Blue Jays offense you were looking for. Despite a reshuffled lineup that featured Jose Bautista leading off, the Blue Jays struggled to score and had to work hard to capitalize on another great start from Marco Estrada. They finally received some timely hits and were able to earn a victory, defeating the Twins in 11 innings.</p>
<p>This game was certainly a pitcher&#8217;s duel, as Ervin Santana and Marco Estrada both completed 8.0 innings of two run ball. Estrada only allowed five baserunners all evening and was in total control after some early missteps. The game was breezing along with the teams combining for seven hits through the first eight innings.</p>
<p>Minnesota scored a run on a Miguel Sano sacrifice fly in the 1st and added another on a Joe Mauer RBI single in the 3rd. Toronto&#8217;s scoring came on one swing by Edwin Encarnacion, who smoked a two run home run following a Josh Donaldson walk in the 6th. While the Blue Jays started the game with a leadoff single by Jose Bautista and another from Edwin, Justin Smoak and Michael Saunders were unable to cash in, continuing a troubling trend that would rear its ugly head again in the late innings.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays had a chance to take the lead in the top of the 9th when Saunders laced a two out double into the right center field gap. Troy Tulowitzki hit a fly ball deep to center field and was robbed of a hit and the go-ahead RBI on a leaping grab by Danny Santana. Jimmy Paredes led off the 10th with a double and advanced to third thanks to a good at-bat from Russell Martin. Kevin Pillar proceeded to groundout to third before Jose Bautista was denied a hit and an RBI on a nice diving stop by shortstop Eduardo Nunez. Roberto Osuna worked a clean 9th and 10th and made his first two inning regular season appearance since last July, keeping the Twins at bay until Toronto could finally deliver in the 11th.</p>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion led off with a single before singles by Justin Smoak and Troy Tulowiztki scored pinch runner Ezequiel Carerra for Toronto&#8217;s third run of the game. Russell Martin had a chance to bring home some insurance runs after a walk to Paredes loaded the bases, but struck out looking instead.</p>
<p>Joe Biagini stepped up and converted his first career save, including a nice pick off of an impatient Danny Santana.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s RBI single in the 11th was tonight&#8217;s top WPA play. The clutch hit increased Toronto&#8217;s chances of winning by 35.7 percentage points (.357 WPA).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Kevin Pillar produced the bottom play of the game when he grounded out in the top of the 10th. With Jimmy Paredes at third and only one out, Pillar&#8217;s inability to drive in a run lowered Toronto&#8217;s win probability by 18.9 percentage points (-.189 WPA).</p>
<h3>Marco Acestrada</h3>
<p>Marco Estrada turned in yet another absolutely masterful performance tonight. He mowed through 8.0 innings on just 104 pitches, surrendering three hits and one walk while striking out nine. One of his runs was unearned, as Joe Mauer scored five hole on new second baseman Jimmy Paredes which allowed Brian Dozier to move from first to third before Sano&#8217;s sac fly. Estrada has been a steadying presence for the Blue Jays all season long and dropped his ERA to 2.61 tonight, but felt the wrath of an anemic offensive attack.</p>
<h3>New Look Lineup</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays shook things up tonight, batting Jose Bautista in the leadoff spot in hopes of kickstarting a once-vaunted offensive attack. The <a href="https://twitter.com/markzwol/status/733403466094116866" target="_blank">players themselves</a> requested the changes and took ownership of the teams&#8217; struggles so far. The one game returns weren&#8217;t great, but the Blue Jays did pick up a victory. It&#8217;s probable that we see a similar lineup tomorrow, but whether this look extends beyond the Minnesota series remains to be seen.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>After finally notching a win, the Blue Jays will look to take the good vibes into tomorrow night&#8217;s game. Aaron Sanchez (3-1, 3.29) will oppose right hander Tyler Duffey (1-2, 1.85) tomorrow night in the second of this four game set. First pitch is set for 8:10 EST.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>One Team Will Need to Win: Twins Series Preview</title>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 19 May 2016 16:00:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins April 19 &#8211; May 22 Written by Steve McEwen and Dave Church After being swept at home by Tampa Bay, and losing two of those games by more than ten runs, there’s probably no team more in need of an easy victory than the Toronto Blue Jays. After facing tough division opponents [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays @ Minnesota Twins</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">April 19 &#8211; May 22</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/stevemcewen/" target="_blank">Steve McEwen</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/davidchurch/" target="_blank">Dave Church</a></em></p>
<p>After being swept at home by Tampa Bay, and losing two of those games by more than ten runs, there’s probably no team more in need of an easy victory than the Toronto Blue Jays. After facing tough division opponents constantly over the first six weeks of the season, they now will travel to Minnesota to face the Twins, the worst team in the American League. The Twins weren’t expected to be good this season, but even they probably didn’t expect to be this awful. They have managed to be bad both offensively and on the pitching side of things, ranking 28th in the majors in both ERA and runs scored. Though their offense continues to be disappointing, the Jays still have a good rotation to hang their hats on, even if it showed some cracks over the past week or so.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>May 19th – 8:10 PM ET</h4>
<h4><strong>Marco Estrada vs. Ervin Santana</strong></h4>
<p>With the Blue Jays having just been swept by the Rays and currently on a five game losing streak, they turn to last season&#8217;s saviour Marco Estrada. Estrada hasn’t posted a pitcher’s win since his opening start of the year, but has posted superb numbers this season working to a 2.89 ERA in 43.2 IP. He struggled in his last start, and so far this year is giving up more hard contact than he did last season. Despite that, he is striking out more batters and keeping runners off the bases.</p>
<p>The Minnesota Twins might be struggling but Ervin Santana currently is not. Thus far in 2016, Santana is posting numbers comparable to his 2013 season with the Royals which saw him land a qualifying offer prior to his signing/not-signing with the Blue Jays. Through six starts, Santana has a 3.38 ERA and dominated his last time out against the Cleveland Indians going six innings giving up just one run and five hits.</p>
<h4>April 20th &#8211; 8:10 PM ET</h4>
<h4><strong>Aaron Sanchez vs. Tyler Duffey</strong></h4>
<p>Even with a hiccup in his most recent start, Aaron Sanchez has exceeded expectations so far for the Jays this year, cementing his place in the rotation quicker than anyone expected. He has consistently gone deep into games, notching six innings or more in seven of his eight starts this season, and shown some of the devastating stuff that the team always thought he had. If there’s a worry, it could be in his escalating walk totals: He’s walked four batters and five batters in his last two starts, respectively. Facing a weak Twins lineup can’t hurt to get him back on track.</p>
<p>Tyler Duffey made his first start this season for the Twins on April 24th, and has been effective in his four outings so far, notching a 1.85 ERA. He made his major league debut against the Jays last year, and it was a rough one: he only lasted two innings, giving up six runs on five hits and two walks. Duffey is primarily a fastball/curveball pitcher who tops out around 91 mph according to Brooks Baseball, and mixes in a sinker and changeup. He’s the kind of pitcher the 2015 Jays beat around, but we’ll have to see if this year’s team can remind him of his bad introduction to the big leagues.</p>
<h4>May 21st – 2:10 PM ET</h4>
<h4>J.A. Happ vs. Pat Dean</h4>
<p>Happ has arguably had the worst pitching performance in a Blue Jays uniform since a Brandon Morrow start coincidently followed arguably the best performance by a Jay since Morrow’s 17 K game. Happ has been outstanding all year, but last start gave up eight runs over two innings against the Rays. Early on this year Happ had been locating his fastball in an absolutely outstanding manner but that abandonded him last start.</p>
<p>Pat Dean will make his first ever start in the Big Leagues against the Blue Jays. As a Minnesota Twin of course, Pat Dean must mandatorily throw in the high 80’s and not strike people out. His fastball sits at 89 mph and has struck out 478 batters in over 800 innings in the minors, so he checks both boxes. The one thing Dean definitely does well though is not walk people as he routinely walks fewer than two batters per nine innings.</p>
<h4>May 22nd– 2:10 PM ET</h4>
<h4>Marcus Stroman vs. TBD</h4>
<p>For some reason the Rays had a way with the Blue Jays pitching and that included staff ace Marcus Stroman. In what most definitely was the second worst start of his career he surrendered seven runs in five plus innings and only struck out two batters. Over half the balls put in play were classified as hard hit by fangraphs. Despite the struggles there is little reason to be concerned for Stroman.</p>
<p>TBD</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays have had several changes over the past while. INF Jimmy Paredes was claimed off waivers from Baltimore during the Tampa series, and RHP Dustin Antolin came and went in the blink of an eye, with only one forgettable mop-up outing to his name. INF Andy Burns was optioned to Buffalo to make room for Paredes, and SHP Pat Venditte rejoined the team for Antolin. Several Jays started rehab assignments this week: RHP Bo Schultz, LHP Aaron Loup, and 2B Devon Travis. Jose Bautista and Jesse Chavez are appealing their suspensions as a result of Sunday’s brawl with Texas, and may well end up serving games in this series.</p>
<p>The Twins have been quieter, having only swapped pitchers recently, with Jose Berrios going to AAA Rochester, and LHP Taylor Rogers joining the big club. SS Eduardo Escobar is reportedly close to going on a rehab assignment, and RHPs Kyle Gibson and Glen Perkins are expected to start throwing soon.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Strikeouts</strong><br />
It will be interesting to see if the Blue Jays continue to strike out at a high rate against the Twins who notoriously have many contact pitchers. It could be the remedy for the Jays who after posting a K rate of 18.5% last season have seen it balloon to 23.3% in 2016 despite little change in personnel.</p>
<p><strong>Rotation back on Track?</strong><br />
After two incredibly strong turns through the rotation, the Blue Jays struggled the last time through suffering through three poor starts against the Rays. The Twins have the third worst offense in the league.</p>
<p><strong>Twin Powers</strong><br />
The Twins may have an anemic offense but have two impressive power hitters in Byung-Ho Park and Miguel Sano. The rest of the offense isn’t the most impressive but those two hitters alone can do some serious damage to the baseballs and the scoreboard.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Minnesota Twins</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">1 MICHAEL SAUNDERS-LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">1 JOE MAUER-1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">2 JOSH DONALDSON-3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">2 EDUARDO NUNEZ-SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">3 JOSE BAUTISTA-RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">3 MIGUEL SANO-RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">4 EDWIN ENCARNACION-DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">4 BYUNG-HO PARK-DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">5 JUSTIN SMOAK-1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">5 TREVOR PLOUFFE-3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">6 TROY TULOWITZKI-SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">6 BRIAN DOZIER-2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">7 KEVIN PILLAR-CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">7 EDDIE ROSARIO-LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">8 RUSSELL MARTIN-C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">8 KURT SUZUKI-C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">9 RYAN GOINS-2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">9 DANNY SANTANA-CF</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>This will be the classic case of the resistable force meeting the moveable object, as the Twins have had their own three game losing streak. Somebody will have to win all these games. If there was ever a team that could bust the skid that the Jays are in, these Twins are them. Either a rebound from their rotation or signs of life from their lineup might be enough to win this series. For the Jays right now, any way they win will be just fine.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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