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	<title>Toronto &#187; Michael Saunders</title>
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		<title>The Most Surprising Stats from an Underwhelming Blue Jays Season</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/05/the-most-surprising-stats-from-an-underwhelming-blue-jays-season/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Sep 2017 10:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Gibbons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kendrys Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[As the calendar flips to September, the Blue Jays and their fans have accepted that there will be no pennant race at the Rogers Centre this season. While the team headed into 2017 with an eye on a third straight playoff appearance, injuries and subpar performance made this season a rather underwhelming one on the field. But [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As the calendar flips to September, the Blue Jays and their fans have accepted that there will be no pennant race at the Rogers Centre this season. While the team headed into 2017 with an eye on a third straight playoff appearance, injuries and subpar performance made this season a rather underwhelming one on the field.</p>
<p>But just because the season was a frustrating one doesn’t mean nothing interesting happened. To <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/look-here-for-your-justin-smoak-optimism/">almost everyone’s</a> surprise, Justin Smoak broke out, turning himself into an elite hitter in the middle of the Blue Jays’ lineup; Josh Donaldson played shortstop; and Aaron Sanchez, like many of his peers, couldn’t quite grip the new baseball without tearing open his fingers in the process.</p>
<p>Those were some of the biggest stories of 2017, but they weren’t the only ones. Here are some of the most surprising stats &#8211; some of them good, and some of them bad, from a Blue Jays season that got away.</p>
<h3>Team Strikeouts Are Way Down And So is Their Run Scoring</h3>
<p>In a year when strikeouts are more prominent than ever, the Blue Jays have managed to cut down on their strikeouts from a season ago. The Jays rank in the bottom third of the major leagues in strikeout rate, posting a team strikeout percentage of 20.9% &#8211; a surprise for a team that struck out so frequently in 2016.</p>
<p>When a team struggles to score runs, strikeouts are often said to be the root of the problem. Many were quick to suggest that the Blue Jays, who went into an offensive funk in September of last season, were striking out far too often to be a good offense. But preventing strikeouts is not always the way to increase a team’s offensive output and the 2017 Blue Jays are demonstrating why:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="63">Year</td>
<td width="56">K%</td>
<td width="78">League Avg</td>
<td width="43">Rank</td>
<td width="85">Runs Scored</td>
<td width="41">Rank</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="63">2016</td>
<td width="56">21.9%</td>
<td width="78">21.1%</td>
<td width="43">8th</td>
<td width="85">759</td>
<td width="41">9<sup>th</sup></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="63">2017</td>
<td width="56">20.9%</td>
<td width="78">21.6%</td>
<td width="43">19th</td>
<td width="85">582</td>
<td width="41">24<sup>th</sup></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>In 2016, only 7 MLB teams struck out more than the Blue Jays but the team managed to score the 9<sup>th</sup> most runs in baseball. This season, the Jays have significantly cut their strikeout rate, yet their offensive production has cratered as well.</p>
<p>Strikeouts don’t matter. Even if they feel like they do.</p>
<h3>Michael Saunders is a Speed Demon</h3>
<p>…relative to the rest of his teammates. We all knew the 2017 Blue Jays were going to be slow, but this is still surprising. More surprising than Saunders, who signed with the Phillies last offseason being back with Toronto this September? Still, yes.</p>
<p>Saunders, who was once a stolen base threat, tore his meniscus in 2015 and hasn’t possessed the same foot speed since. But despite Saunders’ surgically repaired left knee, he is actually STILL one of the fastest members of the 2017 Blue Jays.</p>
<p>According to Statcast, with a sprint speed per second of 27.4 feet, only Kevin Pillar and Ezequiel Carrera are faster. Saunders’ sprint speed of 27.3 feet/second in 2016 suggests that his 2017 number isn’t an aberration, either. This quirky stat could change if Anthony Alford, Dwight Smith Jr. or Teoscar Hernandez see any significant time with the team in September.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="131">Player</td>
<td width="146">Sprint Speed (ft./second)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="131">Kevin Pillar</td>
<td width="146">29.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="131">Ezekiel Carrera</td>
<td width="146">27.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="131">Devon Travis</td>
<td width="146">27.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="131">Michael Saunders</td>
<td width="146">27.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="131">Darwin Barney</td>
<td width="146">27.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="131">Josh Donaldson</td>
<td width="146">27.0</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<h3>Kendrys Morales: Not Very Valuable, Despite the Offence</h3>
<p>As of September 5<sup>th</sup>, Kendrys Morales was sitting on a line of .247/.303/.456 with 26 home runs; an offensive performance fairly similar to his 2016 output (.263/.327/.468, 30 HR) with the Royals. But as we continue to see home runs being hit at record paces, a pure slugger’s contributions become less helpful than they once were.</p>
<p>Wins Above Replacement Player – the stat that measures a position player’s overall contribution to the team on defense, offense and the base paths, has not been kind to Morales this season. Even if you don’t believe in advanced stats, it’s pretty easy to make the case that Morales hasn’t been too valuable on the bases or in the field. Of the 43 players in the major leagues with at least 25 home runs this season, only one has been less valuable (per WARP) than Kendrys Morales: Texas’ Mike Napoli. Morales didn’t change, but its starting to look like the game has.</p>
<h3>Gibby: Not Getting Ejected at his Usual Pace</h3>
<p>In September of 2016, while the Blue Jays were embattled in a fight for the American League wild card spots, John Gibbons was chasing history. The Blue Jays manager, who had been kicked out of seven games at this time last year, was in line to possibly break the <a href="https://beta.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/blue-jays-manager-gibbons-making-a-run-at-record-for-ejections-toronto/article31827217/?ref=http://www.theglobeandmail.com&amp;">Blue Jays’ all-time record</a> for managerial ejections (8) set by Bobby Cox.</p>
<p>But like a fine wine (or a team with little to play for and hence, to scream about), John Gibbons has mellowed with age; having only been thrown out of five games so far in 2017. The Blue Jays manager will need to belligerently ratchet up the kicking and screaming this September if he has any intention of breaking the franchise ejection record he came oh-so-close to last season.</p>
<h3>The 2017 Team Might Not Really Be Unlucky</h3>
<p>2017 has brought with it some frustrating losses. These hair-pullers, the ones where the team can’t hold a late lead or isn’t able to push that one extra run across the plate cause some to dream on what could have been. If the team was just a little bit luckier; if Roberto Osuna would have been able to save just a couple more games, or if Josh Donaldson could have hit just a couple more home runs, those blown saves and one run losses could have turned into wins and the season would look a lot different.</p>
<p>But the Jays, who currently sit at 64-74, might have been lucky to get to 64 wins according to several stats that attempt to remove luck and random distribution of run scoring. While the Jays have posted an ugly 5-12 record in extra inning play, the team is 21-21 in one-run games, suggesting that they haven’t been that unlucky (or lucky) in close games at all.</p>
<p>Based on the teams -90 run differential (they’ve allowed 90 runs more than they have scored), Baseball Prospectus’ expected winning percentage for the team sits at .428, or 59-78. Similarly, Baseball Reference has the Blue Jays’ Pythagorean win-loss record sitting at 59-78 as well.</p>
<p>Stats like expected winning percentage and Pythagorean win-loss are far from perfect, and they don’t account for the role that bullpens play in close games, but combined with the Jays’ poor run differential and .500 record in one-run games, the team might not be as unlucky as we’d hoped they were.</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s to an interesting end to the 2017 season (how great would a 5 stolen base month from Kendrys Morales be?) and a better 2018.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 63: A Tall Glass of Juiced Balls</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/29/artificial-turf-wars-ep-63-a-tall-glass-of-juiced-balls/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Jun 2017 10:02:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Ben Lindbergh]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Juiced Ball]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12103</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Episode 63 The Ringer and Effectively Wild&#8217;s Ben Lindbergh drops by to talk about his recent piece on the effect of the baseball on the home run surge across baseball. He goes over his findings relating to the bounce of the ball and the lower seams, the cause/effect relationship of the new ball and the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 63</strong></p>
<p>The Ringer and Effectively Wild&#8217;s <a href="https://twitter.com/BenLindbergh" target="_blank">Ben Lindbergh</a> drops by to talk about <a href="https://theringer.com/2017-mlb-home-run-spike-juiced-ball-testing-reveal-155cd21108bc" target="_blank">his recent piece on the effect of the baseball on the home run surge across baseball</a>. He goes over his findings relating to the bounce of the ball and the lower seams, the cause/effect relationship of the new ball and the &#8220;flyball&#8221; revolution, and looks at why the home run increase is larger in the middle, as opposed to the big boppers. Greg and Josh also discuss the recent Jays play, including notes on the departure of Jason Grilli, the returns of Ezequiel Carrera and Michael Saunders, Justin Smoak&#8217;s All-Star surge, and the return to form of Steve Pearce. They also give out a Do-Over, answer listener questions and give a Gold Star to John Gibbons for his handling of the Roberto Osuna issue.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/011/show_10110267_2017_06_29_04_01_58.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/011/show_10110267_2017_06_29_04_01_58.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
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		<title>Report: Blue Jays Qualify Bautista and Encarnacion, Decline to Offer Saunders</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/07/report-blue-jays-qualify-bautista-and-encarnacion-decline-to-offer-saunders/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 07 Nov 2016 22:12:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[qualifying offer]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays qualifying offer decisions came down today, and if you were hoping for some big surprise to get you excited about the Jays, you were probably a little disappointed. #BlueJays extend qualifying offers to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. No offer for Michael Saunders. &#8212; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) November 7, 2016 As predicted [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays qualifying offer decisions came down today, and if you were hoping for some big surprise to get you excited about the Jays, you were probably a little disappointed.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> extend qualifying offers to Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion. No offer for Michael Saunders.</p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/795748347386724353">November 7, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>As predicted most everywhere, both Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion received offers. They will have one week to make their decisions, but the two sluggers are basically locks to reject the offers. Even with Bautista&#8217;s down year, they are two of the premier bats in this somewhat shallow free agent market and should easily be able to get multi-year contacts. The Jays will likely make some attempt to sign both, though how hard they will try is yet to be determined. The team has lots of holes and both those players will cost a lot of money.</p>
<p>In a similarly predictable situations, Brett Cecil, R.A. Dickey, and Gavin Floyd did not receive qualifying offers from Toronto. They had varying degrees of success, but none would be worth a 1 year, $17.2M commitment (the value of this year QO). Scott Feldman, Dioner Navarro, and Joaquin Benoit were ineligible to receive offers (though they would not have anyway), as they were traded mid-season.</p>
<p>The only real question mark was Michael Saunders. If you just dropped in at the end of the season and looked at his overall line of .253/.336/.478 with a career-best 140 games played, you could make a very good argument that he would be worth the QO, even with a large dip in his defensive value.</p>
<p>Of course, we haven&#8217;t just dropped in. We&#8217;ve all been paying attention, and Saunders&#8217; season has been one of two very different halves. In the first half, Saunders looked like a lock to receive a qualifying offer, reject it, and then score a large deal in free agency. After all, he hit .289/.372/.551, including a .301/.383/.614 line against lefties, and earned a spot on the American League All-Star team.</p>
<p>In the second half, it was as though Saunders was a completely different player. His overall line fell to .178/.252/.387 and he became barely playable. He did continue to play better against lefties than righties, with a line of .199/.276/.423 against same-sided arms, but he was just hopeless for long stretches of play. The team was left with the question of &#8220;which is the real Saunders?&#8221; and the answer is probably neither of them. He isn&#8217;t the All-Star, and he isn&#8217;t the bench player he looked like at the end. But no matter what he is, there was just too much risk to provide him with an offer.</p>
<p>With teams able to talk to everybody starting Tuesday, the long free agent slog is finally ready to begin.<br />
<em><br />
Lead Photo: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>On Michael Saunders and Defying Expectations</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/24/on-michael-saunders-and-defying-expectations/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 24 Oct 2016 11:32:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Season That Was]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7636</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There were high expectations for the Toronto Blue Jays coming into the 2016 season. The end to 2015 was thrilling, and the Jays had made the playoffs for the first time in 22 years. Most of that exciting team was coming back, and there were even places a couple of places where you&#8217;d expect improvement. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There were high expectations for the Toronto Blue Jays coming into the 2016 season. The end to 2015 was thrilling, and the Jays had made the playoffs for the first time in 22 years. Most of that exciting team was coming back, and there were even places a couple of places where you&#8217;d expect improvement. Notably, the Jays would get a full seasons of Troy Tulowitzki and Marcus Stroman, and acquisitions like J.A. Happ, Jesse Chavez, and Drew Storen were coming in to fortify the pitching staff.</p>
<p>No one knew what to expect from Michael Saunders. After a 2015 season where he had a disastrous injury, it wasn&#8217;t even certain he&#8217;d make the roster. But, the new front office extended a contract (at $2.9 million), ensuring he&#8217;d be on the team, by hook or by crook. The floor for Saunders was very low, and the ceiling uncertain for someone who had no cartilage in his knee. Would he start? Could they keep him as a bench player? He was <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/new-detail-emerges-failed-jay-bruce-blue-jays-trade/" target="_blank">almost traded to Cincinnati</a>, suggesting that the front office may have shared in the skepticism.</p>
<p>Yet, Michael Saunders had a career year&#8230;by every measurement. Though his bad second half might obscure our perspective, the whole picture tells a different story. Saunders had career highs in games played, doubles, home runs, and OPS. It led to a season that was a triumph for the player, and a very pleasant surprise for the team. For a few months, he provided a left-handed bat that the Jays sorely needed, hitting early on when several mainstays (Russell Martin and Troy Tulowitzki chief among them) scuffled badly. He helped keep the offense afloat while the pillars of the Jays found their way, earning a trip to the All-Star game for his work.</p>
<p>Saunders struggled after the break, and the Jays probably knew they were playing with house money. He&#8217;d been all All-Star for half the year. Although <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/30/bp-toronto-bold-predictions/">many of us here had Saunders as a comeback candidate in our early season predictions</a>, I don&#8217;t think anyone expected Saunders to be THAT good in those first few months. He was a star, often the best hitter on a team that had several elite sluggers already.</p>
<p>The Jays have a lot of questions this off-season, with several important free agents. Most of the discussion has (rightfully) centered around Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, with the occasional nod to the <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/" target="_blank">longest serving Blue Jay, Brett Cecil</a>. Saunders, too, will hit the open market, and given his mixed season, it&#8217;s hard to predict what kind of contract he might get. At 29, he&#8217;s not too old, but he&#8217;s had several injuries, and that knee has to be worrisome in the long term. Saunders also probably plays older than he is, which will deflate his value. The fact that the team DH&#8217;d him over Bautista in the playoffs was a strategic move (because they were more likely to pinch-hit for Saunders), but also a commentary on his sub-par defense. The Jays carried five outifelders down the stretch so they could sub for both Bautista AND him late in games.</p>
<p>There doesn&#8217;t seem to be a reservoir of affection for Saunders from Jays fans; no segment of diehards clamoring for his return. That is both fine and understandable. Although he&#8217;s Canadian (which earns some extra points from the flag-waving section), he&#8217;s really only had one season with the team, and seems reserved on a club with loud personalities and social media stars. He doesn&#8217;t give memorable interviews, doesn&#8217;t have a must-follow Instagram account, nor does he have his own Twitter hashtag. He&#8217;s not visible. He just does his job.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s hard to picture Saunders being back with the team in 2017, given his past injuries, his potential cost, and the uncertain expectations that any team should still have of him. He&#8217;s always been more potential than actual, more sizzle than steak. He was easy to dream on, with all the physical tools one wants in an outfielder, though he was never as good as they hoped in Seattle. And now, there&#8217;s still a wide range of potential outcomes. Is he the All-Star, getting halfway to an elite season, slugging lefthanders and righthanders with equal aplomb? Or, is he more the second half Saunders, struggling as pitchers throw him soft stuff away, unable to adjust? A brief playoff renaissance suggests that Saunders still has the slugging gene in him, that the first half was not entirely a mirage, born of hot streaks and &#8220;seeing the ball well&#8221; as network analysts might say. Given his less than stellar defense, he might be best suited as a DH, which isn&#8217;t great for someone who will only turn 30 in November.</p>
<p>Expectations are a strange thing, at times. We expected the Jays to be better than they were during the season, though they still made it to the ALCS for the second year in a row. This was a team that could have made the World Series, but like in 2015, ran into a team that simply played better. After a bad September, most probably had the Jays ticketed for an early exit, so an ALCS berth was probably a pleasant surprise.</p>
<p>Michael Saunders was an afterthought coming into spring training, but definitely exceeded most expectations this year. An All-Star and a slugger, at times, more than earning the relative pittance the team paid him, and making up for a lost 2015 that had his career in jeopardy. If this is the end Michael, I bid you adieu, and provide thanks for your carrying this team on your back, while others were falling by the wayside. Brief as that time may have been.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Donaldson&#8217;s Bold Move Pays Off for Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/10/donaldsons-bold-move-pays-off-for-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/10/donaldsons-bold-move-pays-off-for-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Oct 2016 16:02:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 postseason]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALCS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALDS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7363</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO – Ballsy. Reckless. Bold. Aggressive. Call it whatever you want, but Josh Donaldson’s decision to round third and attempt to score on a ball in the dirt that was laying at the feet of Texas Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland was certainly not your run of the mill play. As Donaldson laid out, doing [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TORONTO – Ballsy. Reckless. Bold. Aggressive.</p>
<p>Call it whatever you want, but Josh Donaldson’s decision to round third and attempt to score on a ball in the dirt that was laying at the feet of Texas Rangers first baseman Mitch Moreland was certainly not your run of the mill play.</p>
<p>As Donaldson laid out, doing his best Superman impression, he touched the corner of home plate with his outstretched left hand to score the decisive run and win the ALDS for the Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>“That’s a baseball player man,” Kevin Pillar said after the game as he and his teammates celebrated the Jays’ 7-6 walk-off win in Game Three of the ALDS against the Texas Rangers. “He’s got great instincts. Everyone wants to talk about what he’s able to do with his bat, or what he’s able to do with his glove, but what makes him an MVP type of player is his ability to run the bases.</p>
<p>“That’s a guy whose playing banged up. Probably not at 100 percent, but his instincts took over and he wanted it more than they did. That’s a play where someone can’t tell you to go, you just got to go on your own and he reacted, and boy it worked out.”</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;Everyone wants to talk about what he’s able to do with his bat, or what he’s able to do with his glove, but what makes him an MVP type of player is his ability to run the bases.&#8221; &#8211; Pillar</p></blockquote>
<p>That it certainly did, as the Jays won the game on what was arguably the boldest baserunning decision in franchise history. When Donaldson broke for home, the Rogers Centre crowd held their breath as the play unfolded. Even last year’s MVP wasn’t sure he was going to make it home safely.</p>
<p>“That situation in the game, if he ends up throwing me out, making a great play you kind of have to tip your cap to him,” Donaldson said. “But I’m banking on the fact that I’m going to make it more times than not.&#8221;</p>
<p>While Donaldson was <i>relatively</i> sure his gamble was going to pay off, Michael Saunders was certain the game was over then and there.</p>
<p>“His instincts are off the charts. I had no doubt that he was scoring,” Saunders said. “When he makes up his mind on the base path it’s usually the right decision. He was aggressive. He understood the way the game was going that we needed to take our chances. The guy is an MVP for a reason.”</p>
<p>What may be more surprising than Donaldson’s decision to break for home in that situation was the fact that it’s no secret he’s nursing an assortment of ailments, some of which certainly affected his swing during a September where he hit .232 and only managed three home runs, but the 30-year-old looked awfully spry as he bolted for home.</p>
<p>“When you have 50,000 fans screaming it kind of numbs the pain a little,” Donaldson said. “It gives you that little extra jolt of adrenalin.”</p>
<blockquote><p>“When you have 50,000 fans screaming it kind of numbs the pain a little.&#8221; &#8211; Donaldson</p></blockquote>
<p>While the end result was what the Jays hoped for, the game itself wasn’t perfect. Few things in life are.</p>
<p>Aaron Sanchez struggled with his command all game &#8211; allowing six earned runs in his first postseason start, Kevin Pillar just barely missed a diving catch to end all diving catches that gave the Rangers a brief lead in the sixth, and the Jays only had two hits with runners in scoring position, scoring two of their seven runs on a wild pitch and an error.</p>
<p>That no longer matters. What matters at this time of year is simply the end result and that’s what the Jays are focused on.</p>
<p>“In the playoffs it’s all about getting wins,” Pillar said. “We just executed better and that’s what it comes down to in the postseason. We just played better baseball. We executed better.</p>
<p>“We’re going to enjoy the rest. It’s a long season. A lot of us are beat up. A lot of us are hanging on by threads. We’re going to enjoy the couple days off and take care of our bodies and we’ll be ready to go.”</p>
<p>Thanks to Donaldson’s bold baserunning decision the Jays get four days off before returning Friday for Game 1 of the ALCS against the winner of the Boston/Cleveland series &#8211; something that’s critical for the team at this time of year with so many bodies hurting.</p>
<p>“It’s been a long year. The extra days off will definitely benefit us as a team, I can tell you that,” Saunders said. “We’re just going to keep this momentum going. We’re going to enjoy some days off and come back ready to go.”</p>
<p>When they do come back the Jays will be looking for their seventh-straight victory, which would tie the club’s best mark of the season. Those types of streaks are awfully rare this time of year, but Toronto might be playing its best baseball at the most critical time.</p>
<p>Pillar talked before the Wild Card game about team’s who win that game tend to “ride that wave” of momentum into their next series. Thanks to Donaldson and company the Jays are still riding that wave and will look to continue to do so when the ALCS starts.</p>
<p>Friday. Be there.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays&#8217; Canadian Trio on the Playoffs in Toronto</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/03/the-blue-jays-canadian-trio-on-the-playoffs-in-toronto/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Oct 2016 11:22:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7157</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto – The postseason is the biggest stage that Major League Baseball has to offer. It’s a time of high intensity, high pressure, and high stakes. Every little detail matters. In the course of a season, or even a game, a misplay or poor decision can go unnoticed. Lost in the greater context of events [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Toronto – The postseason is the biggest stage that Major League Baseball has to offer. It’s a time of high intensity, high pressure, and high stakes. Every little detail matters. In the course of a season, or even a game, a misplay or poor decision can go unnoticed. Lost in the greater context of events that a marathon season requires. In the postseason those decisions and plays are scrutinized to the Nth degree.</p>
<p>With those stakes comes a lot of pressure. Not just in the postseason but also those meaningful games down the stretch to get there. There’s not one player in the league that doesn&#8217;t want to be in that spotlight, living under the intensity of those must-win games.</p>
<p>Russell Martin has become no stranger to playing under the spotlight on baseball’s biggest stage. With the Blue Jays having clinched a playoff spot Sunday Martin will make his sixth straight postseason appearance and ninth overall in his 11-year career and he wouldn&#8217;t have it any other way.</p>
<p>“You battle your butt off all year to earn the right to play the most meaningful games possible,” Martin said last week. “Just the opportunity to play under those circumstances is all you need.</p>
<p>“Derek Jeter said it best ‘you have 162 games of practice before the real season starts.’ And that’s what it feels like. It’s like you earn your right to play under the big lights.”</p>
<blockquote><p>“Derek Jeter said it best ‘you have 162 games of practice before the real season starts.’ And that’s what it feels like. It’s like you earn your right to play under the big lights.” &#8211; Russell Martin</p></blockquote>
<p>While Martin has played nearly 50 games under those postseason lights for Michael Saunders Tuesday&#8217;s Wild Card game at the Rogers Centre versus the Baltimore Orioles will be his first. A sprinkler head in Spring Training last season spoiled his chances of embarking on Toronto’s historic run to the postseason in 2015, leaving the 29-year-old Canadian with bittersweet feelings and pinned to the Jays’ bench as the club’s biggest cheerleader.</p>
<p>After a healthy 2016 where he set career highs in at-bats, games played, and home runs, Saunders is looking forward to making up for last year’s freak accident and playing under those bright lights.</p>
<p>“(The playoffs), that’s what I’m looking forward to,” Saunders said. “I think I was more nervous than the guys were who were actually playing with me sitting on the bench and knowing all I could do was watch. That’s what I’m looking forward to. I know it’s what we’re all looking forward to. This year around, for me personally, actually being able to contribute and being on the field is a big deal for me.</p>
<p>“It’s why we train all off season, go through Spring Training, play five months every day is to try and play meaningful games in September.”</p>
<p>For Saunders this is only the second time he’s had the chance to experience firsthand impact games down the stretch. His old club, the Seattle Mariners, finished one game back of the Oakland Athletics for the second Wild Card in 2014. Through it all though the Mariners were never in the position the Jays were; controlling their destiny in their own hands with a mere handful of games left.</p>
<p>Despite having little experience in those type of games down the stretch Saunders refused to let the pressure or the high intensity of the game get to him, the game itself is the same after all.</p>
<p>“We don’t feel any pressure. This is why we play the game,” Saunders said before the Jays&#8217; 5-1 win over the Orioles last Tuesday. “To get to this level I feel like you&#8217;ve got to learn to slow your heart beat down a little bit, and not get too amped up. So for us, we understand the importance of this series but this is just another game for us.”</p>
<p>Martin, who’s seen just about everything in the postseason except the World Series, echoes Saunders’ sentiment.</p>
<p>“I don’t make any conscious changes (this time of year),” Martin said. “I think everybody is prone to reacting to their environment. The environment becomes a little bit more excited, a little more amped up. So that might affect me a little bit. But other than that I feel like I just go out there, play my game, play hard, and play to win.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;I just go out there, play my game, play hard, and play to win.&#8221; &#8211; Russell Martin</p></blockquote>
<p>“It’s easy to get excited. When you rush things you tend to make mistakes. I think the best thing you can do sometimes is just step back, gather your thoughts, get your breathing where it needs to be, lower your heart rate if you need to do that. But ultimately you just go out there and do things that you&#8217;ve been successful at and keep doing those things.”</p>
<p>While that may be easy for veteran players like Martin and Saunders, for Dalton Pompey, who’s spent the majority of his 59 Major League Baseball games in high intensity moments in September and October, it doesn&#8217;t come quite as easy for him. He hasn&#8217;t had the time to establish himself as a Major Leaguer, and in reality is experiencing baptism by fire. He just has to hope all that he’s learned in the minors will translate to success at the game’s highest level.</p>
<p>As a result, nerves play a role for the 23-year-old Mississauga, ON native and he feels the pressure of the moment.</p>
<p>“Yeah, I do (feel the pressure),” Pompey said. “Every time I run out there to run for something I get nervous. But once I’m on the base it feels like any other game to me.</p>
<p>“You still feel it. You still feel nerves throughout the whole season any game that you’re in. I mean, if you don’t have nerves I don’t think you should really be playing.”</p>
<blockquote><p>“Growing up here I never really saw a winning team, so to be part of a winning team (in Toronto) for a change and actually be on the team is special to me, special to my family.” &#8211; Dalton Pompey</p></blockquote>
<p>While the elder Canadian statesmen of the team refuses to call it pressure, they admit that they can become over-excited and know the reality of the moment and in turn have to consciously try and stay calm and focus on what’s in front of them. With over 2,100 games between them they&#8217;ve had the luxury of dealing with these situations head on for years and have found their own method of dealing with it and mentally blocking out any form of pressure.</p>
<p>Despite appearing in less than three percent of the regular season games Martin and Saunders has, Pompey has already experienced more postseason time than Saunders and gone equally as far as Martin ever has. A quirky stat that has Pompey out hitting Saunders in the postseason despite just one at-bat in the game’s brightest lights. Having accomplished the feat with the team he grew up cheering for makes that reality even more special.</p>
<p>“It’s obviously a great thing to be part of a playoff roster, a playoff race,” Pompey said. “Getting that experience is only going to be invaluable to me for the rest of my career. Obviously, I’d like to be here more than just September, but I’m grateful to be here altogether because some guys don’t get that opportunity.</p>
<p>“Growing up here I never really saw a winning team, so to be part of a winning team (in Toronto) for a change and actually be on the team is special to me, special to my family.”</p>
<p>Postseason experience and individual accomplishments aside, this trio, along with their teammates have one goal in mind. Martin admits that despite his personal regular season success baseball is a team sport, and to accomplish greater things one has to look beyond personal statistics.</p>
<p>“Luck is definitely (a factor), because it’s not just one person that’s going to change the whole season,” Martin said. “It takes a group of guys that share the same mindset, that work together to achieve one goal. I think that’s what you have on this team. Obviously, this team is made up of individuals that have to accomplish their own things individually, but I think that we’re all united with the fact that we all want to win, and you can sense it in this room.”</p>
<p>With a Wild Card date looming, they&#8217;ll continue to work towards that ultimate goal.</p>
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		<title>Recap: Mariners 2, Blue Jays 1; Canadian Shuts Down Canada&#8217;s Team</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/22/game-recap-mariners-2-blue-jays-1-canadian-shuts-down-canadas-team/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Jul 2016 02:06:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Seattle Mariners]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4778</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Marco Estrada returned and tried to shake of the rust, and James Paxton pitched on &#8216;home soil&#8217; with a polished approach as the Jays faced the Mariners on Friday night. Save a Canadian vs. Canadian home run from Michael Saunders off of Paxton, the Jays couldn&#8217;t find a way to get a big hit with [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Marco Estrada returned and tried to shake of the rust, and James Paxton pitched on &#8216;home soil&#8217; with a polished approach as the Jays faced the Mariners on Friday night. Save a Canadian vs. Canadian home run from Michael Saunders off of Paxton, the Jays couldn&#8217;t find a way to get a big hit with runners on. They fell 2-1 in a game that seemed to have a lot of runners, but not a lot of scoring.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Seth Smith of the Mariners gets the gold star for his double in the fifth. The big hit drove in Shaw O&#8217;Malley to put the Mariners permanently ahead and raise their WPA by 13.7%.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Michael Saunders gets &#8216;credit&#8217; for the bottom play of the game at -17% WPA with his strikeout in the bottom of the ninth with two runners on. The at-bat might have unfolded differently as Seattle closer Steve Cishek had been a little wild, but Mike Everett decided that a pitch 13 inches off the ground would be called strike two. Saunders whiffed on the next pitch, ending the game.</p>
<h3>Meat Tenderizer</h3>
<p>James Paxton took a mallet to the middle of the Jays order, the 2-3-4 hitters combined were two for nine with seven strikeouts. In fact, he notched six strikeouts in the first six appearances of Donaldson, Encarnacion and Tulowitzki. When the biggest bats in the lineup are whiffing like crazy, you might be having a special night. The potential in that 99mph fastball is surely what both the Jays and Mariners saw when they drafted him.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Josh Thole is going to be filling in for Russell Martin for a little bit. As you may have heard, Martin fell down after a too-long sauna stay, and won&#8217;t be able to play for an indefinite amount of time. Will he be able to play like a fringe average major leaguer on offence, and not the .160 hitter we&#8217;ve seen so far? Will we see an impact on the pitcher&#8217;s results? Catching is an area where the Jays have no depth, and any DL time for Martin will expose a severe weakness.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Hisashi Iwakuma, who, thankfully, is nothing at all like James Paxton, will face off against the Jays and R.A. Dickey on Saturday at 1:07 pm. This might be a fun one if the hot air is rising in the dome.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 4, Royals 2; Bring Out The Brooms!</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/06/recap-blue-jays-4-royals-2-bring-out-the-brooms/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jul 2016 01:43:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4443</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That was one heck of a ballgame and it concluded in the best possible outcome, a sweep of the Kansas City Royals. Marcus Stroman was excellent for a second consecutive outing, not giving up a baserunner until the sixth inning. Michael Saunders led the offense with a home run and the game winning RBI in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That was one heck of a ballgame and it concluded in the best possible outcome, a sweep of the Kansas City Royals. Marcus Stroman was excellent for a second consecutive outing, not giving up a baserunner until the sixth inning. Michael Saunders led the offense with a home run and the game winning RBI in the eighth, cashing in Edwin Encarnacion from second base. The Jays looked to be in control for the majority of the game but never generated a large lead. They led 2-0 through five innings at which point Stroman issued a leadoff walk to Brett Eibner and Alcides Escobar followed that up with an RBI triple. Stroman was able to induce two consecutive ground balls which kept Escobar at third and he polished off Whitt Merrifield to end the threat. That wasn&#8217;t the end, however, as in the eighth Brett Eibner hit a game-tying home run and I thought this one was destined for extras. I was quickly proven wrong in the bottom half of the inning as the Jays piled on two runs. Roberto Osuna came out in the ninth and closed out the game, keeping everyone&#8217;s blood pressure quite low. The Jays have won five in a row and, it is worth repeating, have swept the Kansas City Royals.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The best play of the game came late in this one. With the game tied at two&#8217;s and Encarnacion standing on second after a two out double, Saunders stepped to the plate. He cranked a liner to center field which scored Encarnacion after a terribly off-line throw by Jarrod Dyson. With one swing of the bat, Saunders increased the Jays chance of winning by 0.281 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The worst play in the game occurred in the seventh inning with Salvador Perez at the plate. Eric Hosmer had just singled to right field to lead-off the inning when Perez buried a ball to third base. A relatively routine double play snuffed out anything the Royals had going in the seventh. Perez decreased his team&#8217;s chance to win the game by -0.145 WPA by grounding into this double play.</p>
<h3>Marcus Stroman</h3>
<p>All eyes were on Stroman coming into this start. Over the last two weeks, many pundits were calling for Stroman to be sent down to AAA to work on his delivery and refine his pitches. Last start, Stroman began to silence those critics; going six and two thirds innings allowing just one run while striking out six and walking only one. That was against a red-hot Cleveland team. Tonight was much of the same, as Kansas City was not on the same hot streak as the Indians were but they are the defending World Champs and Stroman had to bring it again tonight. Well, let me tell you, he certainly did. Every single one of the first 15 batters of the game went back to the dugout after their AB. Nine of those 15 batters were retired via the groundball as Stroman&#8217;s sinker was on fire tonight. Stroman went eight innings, giving up three hits, striking out six, walking one and allowing two earned runs. Marcus was working on his delivery over the past couple of weeks and it appears the tweaks have worked. He displayed exceptional accuracy tonight, requiring only 85 pitches to get through eight innings. Hopefully Stro-show can continue this new found dominance after the All-Star break.</p>
<h3>Michael Saunders Has A Chance To Be An All-Star</h3>
<p>Michael Saunders has been named as one of the five remaining AL players that fans can vote into the mid-summer classic. The MLB released a vote total today and it had the west-coast Canadian at the top of the list. It would be truly incredible for the Jays to have four representatives at the All-Star game. He followed up this announcement with a spectacular game, launching a home run to right field and then cashing in the game winning run on a single to center field. Keep it up Saunders and hopefully us fans can vote him in!</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays play host to the Detroit Tigers (45-40) for four games starting on Thursday and ending on Sunday. The Jays are 1-2 against Detroit this year and this will be the last meeting between the two teams during the regular season. After that, the All-Star break commences and we will be able to see Encarnacion, Donaldson and Estrada get honoured for their first-half accomplishments. Drew Hutchison (1-0, 5.40) will face Justin Verlander (8-6, 4.11).</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How Much of Michael Saunders&#8217; Season is a Breakout?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/23/how-much-of-michael-saunders-season-is-a-breakout/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Jun 2016 15:54:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[As I&#8217;m sure you know by now, Michael Saunders has had himself quite the season. Last Friday night, he put an exclamation point on it with a nifty three home run performance. Those three homers were the 13th, 14th, and 15th of Saunders&#8217; season. On top of that, he&#8217;s put up a .335 TAv and 2.0 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As I&#8217;m sure you know by now, Michael Saunders has had himself quite the season. Last Friday night, he put an exclamation point on it with a nifty three home run performance.</p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=825891783&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=600&amp;height=336&amp;property=mlb" width="600" height="336" ></iframe>
<p>Those three homers were the 13th, 14th, and 15th of Saunders&#8217; season. On top of that, he&#8217;s put up a .335 TAv and 2.0 WARP. At present, that TAv total makes him the second best hitting outfielder in the AL, after Mike Trout. As a result, a number of pundits have started to call 2016 Michael Saunders&#8217; breakout season. In many ways, it is, and he has the narrative to back it.</p>
<p>Over the previous five seasons, Saunders has averaged 82.6 games; just over half a season. That hasn&#8217;t been as a result of a lack of performance, but rather a rash of injuries. However, as Eno Sarris noted <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/16049940/blue-jays-outfielder-michael-saunders-quietly-having-breakout-season-mlb" target="_blank">in a piece at ESPN</a>, there&#8217;s been quite a few flukes among the bunch. He writes that, &#8220;It&#8217;s fair to label Michael Saunders injury-prone. But each injury has an explanation &#8212; years of pitching, collision, sprinkler head &#8212; and a reason to think they won&#8217;t hinder the player going forward.&#8221;</p>
<p>This season, Saunders has experienced no such fluke injuries, and there isn&#8217;t anything predicting that he&#8217;ll do it in the future. Given that, it&#8217;s fair to say that 2016 is somewhat of a breakout year: &#8216;he always had the talent, and now he&#8217;s finally healthy&#8217;. Though, there are limits to Saunders&#8217; might. Yes, he has hit better. Yes he has been healthy. But we must also consider how much of the better hitting is luck versus skill.</p>
<p>Looking at the traditional indicators, it&#8217;s pretty easy to dismiss part of Saunders&#8217; season. He has a .375 BABIP, which is 75 points higher than both where it should be, and his career average. Could there be some reason to think that more of his batted balls should be falling for hits? In general, a hitter&#8217;s BABIP is not akin to that of a pitcher, there should be more fluctuation based on a player&#8217;s profile. For a player like Mike Trout or Jose Altuve, it is their speed that leads to a higher BABIP: they&#8217;re more likely than other players to beat a ground ball to the left side of the infield. As we&#8217;ve seen, Saunders isn&#8217;t quite as fleet-a-foot as when he regularly played center field for the Mariners. Consequently, it wouldn&#8217;t be speed that should raise his BABIP.</p>
<p>In <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/fantasy/new-hitter-xbabip-based-on-bis-batted-ball-data/" target="_blank">a post last May at RotoGraphs</a>, Alex Chamberlain devised a new formula for &#8216;xBABIP&#8217;, or &#8216;Expected BABIP&#8217;. In addition to utilizing the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/spd/" target="_blank">Spd</a> statistic to measure a player&#8217;s speed, the formula takes line drive rate, fly ball rate, hard hit rate, and opposite field hit rate in to account. When you plug in Saunders&#8217; current statistical totals in to the formula, you get an expected BABIP of .321. That&#8217;s 21 points above his career average, but 54 points below where he&#8217;s currently sitting. So, he has been fairly lucky.</p>
<p>That same luck seems present in his home run totals as well. After the hat-trick of homers, Saunders is now at 15, putting him on pace for 32 on the season. That would be 13 above his career high. He has also posted a career high in another statistic: HR/FB%. 22.4 percent of Saunders&#8217; fly balls have gone over the fence, compared to a career average 12.3 percent. That&#8217;s a lot more luck.</p>
<p>With all that said, he does have one saving grace, and that&#8217;s how hard he&#8217;s hitting the ball this season. Given the newer nature of Statcast, we don&#8217;t have a lot of data to draw from, but Saunders is hitting the ball with a bit more force. His average exit velocity on the season is 92.7 MPH, up over two MPH from 2015. Even with small sample size caveats considered, that&#8217;s quite the difference. His 2016 average is good for<a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard" target="_blank"> the 34th highest in MLB</a>, and puts him near the likes of Miguel Cabrera, Carlos Correa, and Anthony Rendon. If we look to average home run distance via ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker, we see a similar story. This season, <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_2240&amp;type=hitter" target="_blank">Saunders&#8217; homers have averaged 395 feet</a>, compared to <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_2240&amp;type=hitter" target="_blank">384 in 2014</a>, and <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/detail.php?id=2016_2240&amp;type=hitter" target="_blank">387 in 2013</a>. The last time Saunders was hitting the ball that far was back in 2012, when he hit 19 home runs, and had his first &#8216;breakout season.&#8217;</p>
<p>What does that tell us? Well, Michael Saunders isn&#8217;t Superman, contrary to popular belief. Nor is he Batman, Wonder Woman, The Flash, or the Green Lantern. He&#8217;s just Michael Saunders. He&#8217;s showing power similar to his best previous power season, and plate discipline similar to his best plate discipline season. He has also been really lucky; it&#8217;s all coming together at the right time. Over the course of the rest of the season you can expect output from Saunders that is better overall than he&#8217;s shown in any previous season, but substantially worse compared to what he&#8217;s doing right now. As is often the case with a &#8216;breakout season&#8217;, it&#8217;s a combination of factors, but a positive combination for the Jays nevertheless.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 13, Orioles 3; Michael Saunders for MVP</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/17/recap-blue-jays-13-orioles-3-michael-saunders-for-mvp/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Jun 2016 02:34:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Molly Tissenbaum]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays have scored 51 first-inning runs this year, including three tonight against the Orioles. Michael Saunders hit his first homerun of the night to left field in the top of the first inning, cashing in Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. Aaron Sanchez labored through the first inning, and the Orioles got one back [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays have scored 51 first-inning runs this year, including three tonight against the Orioles. Michael Saunders hit his first homerun of the night to left field in the top of the first inning, cashing in Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion. Aaron Sanchez labored through the first inning, and the Orioles got one back in the bottom half of the inning. He managed to put together six quality innings, before he gave way to Drew Storren. Josh Donaldson continued to be locked in tonight, starting with a homerun in the 3rd and a 2-run RBI triple in the top of the 4th, his 4th triple of the year. He then scored, which brought his run total to 59 on the year, the second best in the league behind Mookie Betts of the Red Sox.</p>
<p>Mike Wright didn&#8217;t make it out of the 4th inning, unable to beat the Blue Jays in his 8 career starts against the Jays. Michael Saunders then homered for the second time to left field to push the Jays&#8217; lead to 11-2, and he wasn&#8217;t finished with two. Saunders got the hat-trick in the top of the 6th inning, hitting a homerun to right field. He tied the record for most RBI for a Canadian in a single game, sending 8 runners across the dish.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Michael Saunders got the Blue Jays night going early with a three-run homerun to left field in the first inning (.188).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the bottom of the third inning, the Orioles loaded the bases and Johnathon Schoop came to the plate with one out. He hit a ball down the right field line into no-man&#8217;s land, but Darwin Barney tracked it down, and made a spectacular throw to Russel Martin to get Manny Machado who had tagged at third base (-.177).</p>
<h3>Bautista Boo-Boo</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will have to continue smashing the baseball around the park without Jose Bautista who has been placed on the 15-day disabled list after he ran into the ball trying to track down a ball in Philadelphia on Thursday night.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>The two, three, and four hitters for the Jays have gotten hot in the last 2 weeks. Over their last 15 games, Donaldson, Encarnacion, and Saunders have combined for 16 homeruns and 47 RBI. The Jays are 10-5 during that stretch.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays are back at it tomorrow afternoon against the Orioles. R.A Dickey will take the hill against Yovani Gallardo, who is coming off the disabled list, tomorrow at 4:07 pm.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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