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	<title>Toronto &#187; Melvin Upton</title>
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		<title>Making a Case for Melvin Upton Jr. as the Starting Left Fielder</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/16/making-a-case-for-melvin-upton-jr/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/16/making-a-case-for-melvin-upton-jr/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Mar 2017 10:54:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9491</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thursday marks the halfway point between the Blue Jays’ first Spring Training game and Opening Day. With the second half getting underway, we are beginning to see more cuts, higher pitch counts, and a greater sense of clarity as to who’s winning the spring&#8217;s annual position battles. While some of these situations are beginning to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thursday marks the halfway point between the Blue Jays’ first Spring Training game and Opening Day. With the second half getting underway, we are beginning to see more cuts, higher pitch counts, and a greater sense of clarity as to who’s winning the spring&#8217;s annual position battles. While some of these situations are beginning to sort themselves out, others take longer to develop. For the Blue Jays, the battle for starting left fielder appears to be stretching out longer than they would have liked.</p>
<p>Toronto&#8217;s left field situation is very murky. Currently, the job appears to be going to a combination of Ezequiel Carrera and Melvin Upton Jr., with Steve Pearce, Darrell Ceciliani, and Dalton Pompey still in the mix. There are talks of platoons and players splitting time between left field and other positions. Curiously, there has not been much talk about a single player winning the job outright. One of the players that could do this is Melvin Upton Jr.</p>
<p>Today, in true Spring Training fashion, we are going to play a meaningless game. The game is called, “Melvin Upton Jr. has a really similar offensive profile to another Blue Jay, try and guess who it is” (it’s only a working title):</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="170"><strong>Player (2004-2016)</strong></td>
<td width="27"><strong>Games</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/rate-stats/">BB%</a></strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/rate-stats/">K%</a></strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/iso/">ISO</a></strong></td>
<td width="71"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/">Contact%</a></strong></td>
<td width="53"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/ops/">OPS</a></strong></td>
<td width="66"><strong><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/wrc/">WRC+</a></strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="170"><em>2004-2016 MLB Average</em></td>
<td width="27"><em>&#8212;&#8212;&#8212;</em></td>
<td width="52"><em>8.4%</em></td>
<td width="51"><em>18.1%</em></td>
<td width="46"><em>.155</em></td>
<td width="71"><em>80.3%</em></td>
<td width="53"><em>.737</em></td>
<td width="66"><em>100</em></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="170">Player A</td>
<td width="27">1469</td>
<td width="52">10.1%</td>
<td width="51">26.6%</td>
<td width="46">.158</td>
<td width="71">72.9%</td>
<td width="53">.723</td>
<td width="66">98</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="170">Player B</td>
<td width="27">824</td>
<td width="52">10.6%</td>
<td width="51">23.9%</td>
<td width="46">.168</td>
<td width="71">76.4%</td>
<td width="53">.700</td>
<td width="66">95</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>For their careers, both of these players have provided slightly below-average offensive production. Both players have found success through hitting with above average power and drawing walks at an above average rate. They have been held back from further offensive success because they are both prone to swinging and missing, leading to poor contact rates and even poorer strikeout rates.</p>
<p>Player A, as you have probably figured out by now, is Melvin Upton Jr. The other is, err&#8230; well, it&#8217;s Justin Smoak.</p>
<p>Now, having an offensive profile such as Smoak is not be the greatest thing in the world for most players &#8211; however, there are two major differences between Justin Smoak and Melvin Upton Jr. While Smoak’s main calling card is his offensive production, one could make the argument that Upton’s hitting is the <em>worst</em> part of his game. Upton is one of the fastest players on the Blue Jays and has been an above average defender throughout his career. Both of these tools grade out better than the ones belonging to his currently suggested platoon partner, Ezequiel Carrera. It would be more optimal for the Jays to play Upton and his superior tools everyday, but one thing needs to happen first: he needs to hit well enough to warrant the takeover of a starting role.</p>
<p>Upton struggled to do that after the Jays acquired him last season, but there are signs of a light at the end of the tunnel. Upton was a solid major league player during his injury-shortened 2015 and 2016 first half. He was recently asked about this success <a href="https://theathletic.com/40077/2017/02/23/enigmatic-blue-jays-outfielder-melvin-upton-jr-yearns-for-daily-duty-in-2017/">an article from The Athletic</a>, where he provides this answer when asked about the key to his success:</p>
<p style="text-align: center">“Just a different attitude, man&#8230;They always say this game is 90 per cent mental. I kind of got back to myself, I’ll say that.&#8221;</p>
<p>While Upton isn’t clear about what he went back to, but perhaps we can take a look at his career numbers to get a general sense. There is a lot of noise, but also trends that could potentially be significant:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-Z-Swing-2010-2016.jpg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9507 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-Z-Swing-2010-2016-e1489550077205.jpg" alt="MUJ Z-Swing 2010-2016" width="450" height="337" /></a><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-WRC-2010-2016-e1489548328890.jpg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9508 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-WRC-2010-2016-e1489550094991.jpg" alt="MUJ WRC+ 2010-2016" width="450" height="336" /></a></p>
<p>Upton’s <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/">Z-Swing%</a> (a player&#8217;s percentage of swings on balls <span style="text-decoration: underline">inside</span> the strike zone) has trended along with his production over the past 7 years. He was a solid offensive player while with Tampa, then took a significant hit in production after joining Atlanta in 2013. This performance was followed with a bounce back in San Diego in 2015, before what appears to be another downtick in offensive production with Toronto in mid-2016.</p>
<p>While swinging at more strikes seems like the simplest of strategies in becoming a better hitter, it doesn’t tell the whole story. Take a look at Upton&#8217;s production last year, in comparison with his <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/library/offense/plate-discipline/">O-Swing%</a> (a player&#8217;s percentage of swings on balls <span style="text-decoration: underline">outside</span> the strike zone) and Z-Swing%:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Upton-2016.jpg"><img class=" wp-image-9541 size-full aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/Upton-2016-e1489554140722.jpg" alt="Upton 2016" width="450" height="364" /></a><br />
<a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-WRC-2016-e1489554400571.jpg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9545 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/03/MUJ-WRC-2016-e1489554400571.jpg" alt="MUJ WRC+ 2016" width="450" height="338" /></a></p>
<p>Upton’s Z-Swing% doesn’t do much to explain his 2016 season, as his production fluctuates wildly. However, take a look at his O-Swing%, most noticeably around the game 115 mark. It begins to steadily decline, coinciding with an increase in offensive production that occurred a couple of weeks after joining the Blue Jays. After an abysmal start, Upton began to turn things around, and showed signs that he may still be able to handle a full-time major league role.</p>
<p>Maybe he got back to his old self? In simplest terms that would be swinging at more strikes and less balls. While this seems very anti-climactic and more like a first day topic in Baseball 101, simply having an idea in mind is much different from actually implementing it. This is especially true for a player such as Upton, who historically has had swing and miss issues. By reversing the trends that caused him to struggle in Atlanta, even if it’s only by a marginal amount, Upton is improving on his weaknesses and cracking open the door for potential future success.</p>
<p>Given his recent struggles, it can be hard to see Melvin Upton Jr. producing at the rate of his former self. While his Swing% trends could signal a resurgence, they could also very well mean absolutely nothing, an example of the randomness that occurs in baseball. Can Melvin Upton Jr. be a productive starting outfielder for Toronto? The answer is a resounding maybe. Maybe Upton has rediscovered what made him successful in Tampa&#8230;or, maybe last year was a small blip in the middle of the decline of a solid major league career. Maybe Atlanta was a bad fit for Upton and his performance there should not be considered in projecting his future. Maybe Toronto will be equally unfit for Upton, and his performance will continue to decline.</p>
<p>A good Upton would mean a solid piece in the puzzle for Toronto, a left fielder who would complement the bottom of their lineup with some pop and some speed. While there&#8217;s no guarantee that Upton will be good, giving him the opportunity to do so may very well be the first step. It&#8217;s not as if there&#8217;s much certainty with his proposed &#8220;platoon&#8221; partner either, as Ezequiel Carrera is 25% worse against right handed pitchers than left handed pitchers in his career. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c-3vPxKdj6o&amp;ab_channel=kellyclarksonVEVO" target="_blank">Take a chance, make a change, and breakaway</a>.</p>
<p><em>Graphs via <a href="http://fangraphs.com">FanGraphs</a></em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How to Get the Most Out of Steve Pearce</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/20/how-to-get-the-most-out-of-steve-pearce/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/20/how-to-get-the-most-out-of-steve-pearce/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Jan 2017 12:01:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8660</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Steve Pearce is one of the most unheralded signings of the offseason. It’s not hard to see why, given the contentious sentiment surrounding Toronto’s higher-profile negotiations, but Pearce was a nice get and he should help in multiple ways. A player who can play in either outfield corner, first base, and occasionally chip in at [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Steve Pearce is one of the most unheralded signings of the offseason. It’s not hard to see why, given the contentious sentiment surrounding Toronto’s higher-profile negotiations, but Pearce was a nice get and he should help in multiple ways. A player who can play in either outfield corner, first base, and occasionally chip in at second or third is nothing to sneeze at. How the Blue Jays will deploy him in a crowded mix remains to be seen, though he does present a decent upgrade at at least one spot on the diamond.</p>
<p>The Jays, finally capitalizing on a cautious free agent market, brought back franchise icon Jose Bautista. That’s a nice move with fairly little risk involved and solves one problem spot in the outfield. Both John Gibbons and Ross Atkins have hinted at <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/gibbons-theres-chance-bautista-plays-first-base-blue-jays/" target="_blank">Bautista potentially playing some first base</a> this season, though Gibbons also referred to it as, “<a href="https://twitter.com/TAMacKenzie/status/821752982027038720" target="_blank">not something we’re really looking at.</a>”</p>
<p>Still, the smart money points to Bautista playing some infield and sharing the DH role with Kendrys Morales in addition to his outfield adventures. With Melvin Upton, Ezequiel Carrera, Steve Pearce, Dalton Pompey and any potential (i.e. hopeful) leftover lefties from the free agent market scrounging for playing time, it makes sense to open up right field from time to time.</p>
<p>How the team divvies up the playing time at the corners is worth looking into. <a title="Ezequiel Carrera and the Need for Another Outfielder" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/" target="_blank">None of the in-house options can be trusted against right handed pitching</a>, and that will be compounded with Kevin Pillar’s similar struggles. It would seem that Upton, a sound defender and a decent hitter against lefties in his own right, will get all of the starts against southpaws. It’s an odd spot, as all of the candidates perform better against left handed pitching with the exception of Pompey and his incredibly small sample size. The team has created several redundancies without acquiring a complementary fix: there are four right shoes and no left ones.</p>
<p>You’d think that one is still available (Brandon Moss, namely), but it remains to be seen if outside help is on the way given budget constraints and the team’s weird affinity for Carrera. Pearce could see some starts in left or right, but given the lack of a pure platoon opportunity it doesn’t look like that will be his main role.</p>
<p>Later on in the clip above, Gibbons was non-committal when asked whether newcomer Pearce would be his primary first baseman. Edwin Encarnacion and his 74 starts at first are gone, and it’s been thought that Pearce would form a platoon with Justin Smoak, with the holdover switch hitter getting most of the at-bats against righties as well as his usual late-inning defensive replacement work. Morales and now Bautista might get some spot duty there as well, but Pearce and Smoak are the main characters for now.</p>
<p>Pearce obviously will get at bats against left handed pitchers, presumably coming at the expense of Smoak given the abilities of Toronto’s outfielders. Surely you have to give Smoak some at bats (<em>hint: you don’t- you don’t even have to keep him on the roster, if push comes to shove</em>), so he’ll take the other half of the platoon.</p>
<p>That would be fine and dandy if Smoak performed better against righties than Pearce. Smoak’s career righty splits (.224/.316/.403), compared with Pearce’s (.245/.322/.406) seem to suggest that he shouldn’t be getting regular work in that situation either. One would hope that common sense prevails, but we’ve been subjected to separate leadoff stints for Ben Revere and Kevin Pillar, so it’s no slam dunk.</p>
<p>On the defensive side of the ledger, there’s no real reason to prefer Smoak either. While defensive metrics can be fickle, Pearce has a career +12 DRS and +8.9 UZR in 1,585 innings at first base. In 6,007 innings at first, Smoak has produced -16 DRS and +0.6 UZR. To be fair, 2013 exists as a massive outlier with -8 DRS and a -4.2 UZR, but even discrediting the anomaly, defense hardly seems to be a feather in Smoak’s cap.</p>
<p>The only real (and very real) reservation that the team should have in regards to Pearce is his durability. He underwent season-ending elbow surgery in September and was given a recovery timetable of 4-6 months, meaning he may miss a chunk of spring training. On top of that, Pearce has never appeared in more than 102 games, which he did in 2014 with Baltimore. Asking a player who has sustained elbow, hamstring and oblique injuries since 2015 alone to take on a full workload may be a bit of a stretch. The team could work to get him some time at DH, though Morales, Bautista and any half-days for Josh Donaldson should be the priority there.</p>
<p>Still, Pearce is, at present, the Jays’ best option at first and a passable option in left against right handed pitching. The injury concerns will probably keep the Jays from giving him regular at bats out of left field, instead Voltroning some kind of ineptitude out of Carrera and Upton.</p>
<p>Pearce is a player with some degree of versatility and a bankable skillset: he mashes left handed pitching. It’s a handy profile that makes him a fit on just about any roster, and it’s now up to the Jays to make the most of his presence. Making him the primary first baseman is a start, and a sprinkling of time in the outfield wouldn’t hurt. The Jays did well to acquire an eminently useful guy like Pearce. Finding him adequate playing time while keeping him healthy will be the challenge.</p>
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		<title>Ezequiel Carrera and the Need for Another Outfielder</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 12:30:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dalton Pompey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It’s no secret that this has been a trying offseason. After the Jays made their quick strike to sign both Lourdes Gurriel and Kendrys Morales, things ground to a halt. It then wasn’t until the Winter Meetings that the team signed Steve Pearce. While that move was a good one for the club, it was [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It’s no secret that this has been a trying offseason. After the Jays made their quick strike to sign both Lourdes Gurriel and Kendrys Morales, things ground to a halt. It then wasn’t until the Winter Meetings that the team signed Steve Pearce. While that move was a good one for the club, it was met with disappointment from the fanbase because it meant that Edwin Encarnacion was definitely not coming back, not matter how much his market fell (watching him sign with the team that knocked them out of the ALCS didn’t help). Even when it finally seemed like a ray of light had shone through the darkness with <a title="Report: Bautista “Nearing Deal” with Blue Jays" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/16/report-bautista-nearing-deal-with-blue-jays/" target="_blank">news of a Jose Bautista contract</a>, it&#8217;s been accompanied by 36 hours of “when will this actually become official.”</p>
<p>With all of that, it can be hard to look ahead to the next move, but look ahead we must, because this team isn’t quite finished yet. The standard school of thought seems to be that the Jays will now <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/deal-jose-bautista-far-reaching-impact-blue-jays/" target="_blank">shift their focus to depth and their relief corps</a>, but that seems premature.</p>
<p>The Jays are lucky to have things more or less settled at eight of the nine offensive positions, but the outfield still needs help. Kevin Pillar is locked into centre field, and assuming Bautista eventually signs, he will be safely placed in right. The issue is with the apparent duo in left.</p>
<p>This all stems from the presence of Ezequiel Carrera. Ezequiel Carrera should not be on the big league roster.</p>
<p>This isn’t to disparage the man they call Zeke. He made great strides last year to become a viable major leaguer. He improved his defence dramatically, rating as an above-average outfielder for the first time in his career (by every available metric). There’s also no denying that he was a standout performer in the postseason, hitting .303/.343/.515 when much of the lineup was struggling to do much of anything.</p>
<p>That’s a very good fourth outfielder.</p>
<p>The problem, however, is that Carrera can’t hit against right-handed pitching.</p>
<p>This may seem counter intuitive considering that Carrera hits from the left side, but he hit just .218/.307/.320 against righties in 2016, following a line of .266/.318/.357 in 2015. Now, Upton hasn’t been any better, hitting .235/.281/.379 the last two years against same-side pitching.</p>
<p>The difference is that everything that Carrera does <em>well</em>, Melvin Upton Jr. can do better. Upton hits for more power. He’s a better overall hitter against left-handed pitching. He plays better defense in the corners. He’s a better base stealer. Simply put, Melvin Upton is a better player than Ezequiel Carrera.</p>
<p>If Carrera and Upton’s struggles were against southpaws, it wouldn’t be as big of an issue. Carrera could stick around as an occasional sub and pinch runner and his <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/12/toronto-blue-jays-arbitration-tracker/" target="_blank">$1.1625M arbitration-avoiding contract</a> would be a fine value. But approximately 3/4s of all plate appearances for a regular player come against right-handed pitchers. That’s way too many at-bats to give away.</p>
<p>This means that the Blue Jays need another outfielder. Sadly, this also means that Carrera has to go. The roster only holds so many spots and he adds nothing that Upton doesn’t already provide.</p>
<p>The Jays need someone who can hit against right-handed pitching, but they also need someone who can handle the position defensively. With Bautista’s limitations in right field, having a good defender in left would allow the team to shift things around to help mitigate the aging slugger’s lack of range. Steve Pearce can&#8217;t really be counted on to be this option, as his outfield range is limited and he has never shown the health to handle everyday work (since he&#8217;ll also get every AB vs LHP at first base&#8230;and vs RHP if he <em>can</em> stay healthy).</p>
<p>Obviously there aren’t a lot of players on the market who fit that bill. The Jays apparently <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/12/blue-jays-have-considered-trading-for-andrew-mccutchen.html" target="_blank">kicked the tires on Andrew McCutchen</a>, but that went nowhere. They’ve also been rumoured to have e<a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/mlb/rumors/post/_/id/31500/mlb-rumor-central-blue-jays-interested-in-curtis-granderson" target="_blank">xpressed interest in Curtis Granderson</a> and <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/mlb-hot-stove-trade-rumors-rockies-blue-jays-talking-blackmon-stroman-deal/" target="_blank">Charlie Blackmon</a>.</p>
<p>With the Bautista signing, however, the Jays likely can’t afford to be swimming in those expensive pools. Whether you believe the payroll budget is $160M or $165M, the Jays don’t have enough for a star. Thankfully, there are a couple of players that could fit the bill.</p>
<p>The first guy this team should be going after is Angel Pagan. The former Giants centre fielder has had his troubles staying healthy the last few years, but he wouldn’t be asked to shoulder a starter’s workload. He’s not young by any stretch (he’ll play the entire year at 35), and he can’t play centre anymore, but the metrics liked his work in left field. More importantly, he can more than handle his own against righties; He hit .282/.352/.414 against them last year, with a .286/.339/.412 line for his career.</p>
<p>Additionally, Pagan is a switch-hitter, which helps if Bautista or Pillar needs a day off against a left-hander, or if the opposing team is bringing in specialists late in the game. And because of his health issues, Pagan shouldn’t cost too much money.</p>
<p>If the Jays can’t get Pagan or anyone like him, they should still try to trade Carrera (he seems unlikely to clear waivers). That’s because they potentially have someone better sitting in AAA: Dalton Pompey.</p>
<p>Pompey hasn’t exactly shown much during his brief MLB career, with a line of just .218/.282/.416 against righties (though that’s still better than Carrera thanks to the slugging), but because he was rushed to the majors in 2014, we tend to forget that Pompey is only 24 years (and will be for the entire season). Throughout his minor league career he has shown himself to be a very patient hitter who can make solid contact, even showing a little pop every now and then. He has also turned into a weapon on the basepaths and he has the range of a plus centre fielder (with +5 DRS in just 21 games) in a corner. You’re getting a player with Ezequiel Carrera as his floor, with a ceiling of so much more.</p>
<p>Ideally Pompey would be playing every day in Buffalo (which is why going outside the organization is the better play), but it has reached a point in his development that it&#8217;s time to weigh the needs of the big league club against his future prospects. This club is built to win now and if he can help, Pompey needs to be with the major league team.</p>
<p>Whether it’s Pagan, Pompey, or someone we don’t even know is available, the simple truth is that the Jays cannot enter the season with the status quo in the outfield. This lineup is oh-so-close to being very, very good again, and to stop short would be a disservice.</p>
<p>Go get it done, Messrs. Atkins and Shapiro.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Assessing the Trade Deadline: The Upgrades We Haven&#8217;t Talked About</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/04/assessing-the-trade-deadline-the-upgrades-we-havent-talked-about/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/04/assessing-the-trade-deadline-the-upgrades-we-havent-talked-about/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 04 Aug 2016 19:23:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Francisco Liriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Feldman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wade Miley]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5162</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This week marked the passing of the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline. With the Blue Jays a year removed from the trade deadline to end all trade deadlines, this season’s transactional activity lacked the same excitement as 2015. While this year’s moves may not be as sexy, that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays’ front [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This week marked the passing of the Major League Baseball non-waiver trade deadline. With the Blue Jays a year removed from the trade deadline to end all trade deadlines, this season’s transactional activity lacked the same excitement as 2015. While this year’s moves may not be as sexy, that doesn’t mean the Blue Jays’ front office did nothing to improve their already strong ball club.</p>
<p>Lost in this year&#8217;s trade analysis however, were many of the intangible improvements the Blue Jays made at this year&#8217;s deadline, which, according to Chris &#8216;Mad Dog&#8217; Russo, are key ingredients in the championship elixir. With this in mind, here is an assessment of the under-reported upgrades that the Blue Jays did and didn’t make at the 2016 deadline.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Melvin Upton and AL East Experience</h3>
<p>While many note that Upton amounts to a solid depth acquisition – a defensive replacement who can hit against left-handed pitching and play all three outfield positions, they are underselling one important part of Upton’s portfolio: AL East Experience. Long heralded as baseball’s toughest division, the AL East is presumed in a class of its own when it comes to the caliber of competition (although this can not be verified numerically in recent years).</p>
<p>While Upton may not be able to overtake Michael Saunders or Kevin Pillar in terms of playing time, he will be able to tell you the name of a great steakhouse in Baltimore or the best park to take your wife and kids to near Yankee Stadium. These kinds of intangibles are crucial to any team with its sights set on a division championship or just enjoys eating well on the road.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Bearded Swingman Scott Feldman</h3>
<p>While the Blue Jays were rumored to be in on many of the starting pitchers available, the Scott Feldman acquisition came as a surprise. Feldman, however, provides valuable beard depth on a team that may lose two of its more elite beards (Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders) to free agency this off season.</p>
<p>Despite possessing a strong crop of young pitchers in Roberto Osuna, Marcus Stroman, and Aaron Sanchez, none of the youngsters have demonstrated the ability to grow the facial hair the team may need come 2017. Aside from his ability to pitch in both the rotation and the bullpen, Feldman has long possessed an 80-grade beard that could slot in nicely as the replacement for either Bautista or Saunders, should the team not be able to re-sign them. The Jays were unable to add anyone that could offset the potential loss of Edwin Encarnacion’s chinstrap, however.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Jays Install a Safety Railing in Russell Martin’s Shower</h3>
<p>Catching depth is one of the scarcest commodities in the Major Leagues. Very few teams are lucky enough to have one high-quality player behind the plate let alone two. This is why one of the Blue Jays’ small but important moves at the deadline was to install a safety railing in Russell Martin’s shower.</p>
<p>The Jays realize that protecting Martin, who was forced to miss a handful of games in mid-July (due to a sauna-induced slip in in the shower) needed to be a top priority for the club. The cost of the installation is said to be a fraction of what the Blue Jays would pay to keep Eric Kratz on the Major League roster and the team was able to get a great deal on a contractor because Jason Grilli knew a guy.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Jays Exercise Restraint and Don’t Trade Jose Bautista to the Nationals</h3>
<p>Jose Bautista, who’s contract expires after the World Series, may be nearing the end of his Blue Jays’ tenure if management decides they don’t want to pay what it will cost to keep him into his early 40s.</p>
<p>This uncertainty led to the circulation of rumors that Bautista might be headed to the Nationals before the non-waiver trade deadline. While Atkins was no doubt tempted by his hatred of all things connected to the previous management regime, not to mention strong Nationals’ trade packages built around Ryan Zimmerman or Jayson Werth, the Blue Jays’ GM opted to hold on to Bautista. Mike Rizzo’s “it never hurts to ask” policy typically only works when he’s asking about players like Johnathan Papelbon.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Hidden Value in the Francisco Liriano Trade</h3>
<p>The most notable acquisition the Blue Jays made this month was Monday’s trade for Pirates’ lefty Francisco Liriano. In addition to Liriano, the Blue Jays acquired two prospects and three weeks of extra media content in the deal.</p>
<p>While many praised the move as a savvy way to acquire Major League talent and prospects at the same time, the real get is the additional columns, video segments and radio discussions about how the Blue Jays may now replace Aaron Sanchez in the rotation. Excited at the possibility of filling their airwaves with further discussion and analysis of the great Sanchez debate, one Sportsnet big wig was quoted as saying: “the ratings generated when Zauny turns bright red on Tim and Sid alone will justify paying Liriano’s $13 million dollar salary in 2017”.</p>
<p>Rusell Martin’s framing abilities will be counted on to help Liriano turn his season around and to offer a players&#8217; perspective in the Sanchez shutdown debates.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Blue Jays Insist that Orioles Acquire Wade Miley</h3>
<p>With few high level arms available via trade this season, the market demand for starting pitching saw general managers acting like Canadian house hunters in their attempt to secure rotation upgrades.</p>
<p>Understanding that the Blue Jays’ best chance at success lies in having hurlers like Wade Miley pitch against the club rather than start for it, the team wisely decided against acquiring a back of the rotation innings-eater. While Jose Bautista and company may have been actively petitioning the club to acquire pitchers at the deadline in years past, the Jays’ offence is likely asking for more opportunities to face off against this year’s crop of trade targets.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Jays Trade Drew Storen to Seattle for Slightly Older Drew Storen</h3>
<p>The Drew Storen experiment didn’t work out in Toronto. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, the once-excellent Storen lost enough miles per hour on his fastball that he was unable to pitch effectively.</p>
<p>Instead of waiting until the end of the year to cut ties with Storen, Atkins shipped him to Seattle last week in exchange for Joaquin Benoit , a reliever with a similar record of long term success and short term struggles. The best-case scenario is that Benoit returns to form and the Jays have another reliable bullpen arm. The worst-case is that Blue Jay fans will get to spend a few innings a week wondering the same thing they did when Storen was pitching: Is he really this bad now? And, can he turn things around? Consistency is important.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro skillfully added talent to both their major and minor league teams without subtracting any significant pieces from the current roster. Lost in these upgrades, were a series of intangible improvements that often go unnoticed &#8211; beard depth is just as important as pitching depth. It might not be exciting but it was productive. If you still don’t think the Blue Jays did enough at the deadline, you can always count Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins playing the outfield as new additions too…right???</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: The Front Office&#8217;s Direction After the Trade Deadline</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/31/this-week-in-blue-jays-the-front-offices-direction/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/31/this-week-in-blue-jays-the-front-offices-direction/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 31 Jul 2016 09:23:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joaquin Benoit]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5029</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Today is an interesting date for Blue Jays fans. On the eve of the 2016 non-waiver trade deadline, it was a year ago yesterday that then-general manager Alex Anthopoulos sent shockwaves through the baseball world by trading for ace David Price, a move that – along with the trade for Troy Tulowitzki a few days [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Today is an interesting date for Blue Jays fans. On the eve of the 2016 non-waiver trade deadline, it was a year ago yesterday that then-general manager Alex Anthopoulos sent shockwaves through the baseball world by trading for ace David Price, a move that – along with the trade for Troy Tulowitzki a few days beforehand – definitively stated “we’re all in” and helped to lead the Jays to their first playoff appearance in twenty-two years.</p>
<p>That was then. This is now.</p>
<p>Though the Jays are no doubt a superior team than they were at this – or frankly, any – point last season, they still have the same glaring need: starting pitching. It is impossible to predict what this management team might be able to pull off this trade deadline. Certainly, if they are able to make a move, it will not be of the blockbuster variety. Those do not happen very often, and when they do, they often involve trading pieces of the future for a one-time shot at the prize. No one should expect Atkins to be able to trade for a bonafide ace. Quite simply, he did not inherit the assets to do so. However, what the front office lacks in terms of trade chips they appear to be making up for in creativity. I believe that their two newest acquisitions, Melvin Upton Jr. and Joaquin Benoit, provide insight into the direction in which this management team is headed.</p>
<p>The deal for Upton provides the Jays with upside on two fronts: it provides roster flexibility as the Jays chase down a championship while also hedging against an uncertain future. In the short-term, as noted by <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/person-interest-new-blue-jays-outfielder-melvin-upton-jr/" target="_blank">Jeff Simmons of Sportsnet</a>, Upton is a good defensive outfielder who can play all three outfield positions, providing manager John Gibbons with the option of using either Jose Bautista or Michael Saunders more often in the DH role. And although he is unlikely to be in the starting lineup often against right-handed pitchers (this season he is batting .247/.292/.392 against RHP compared to .279/.333/.570 versus lefties) he is a good option off the bench to be a late-inning defensive replacement. Upton also provides some much needed speed on the base paths, having stolen 20 bases thus far this season (the Jays as a team have just 32). Though he certainly won’t light this team on fire, his acquisition is what <a href="http://espn.go.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/72543/blue-jays-blockbuster-hardly-but-melvin-upton-jr-adds-piece-to-playoff-puzzle" target="_blank">Jerry Crasnick of ESPN</a> refers to as “tinkering around the edges”.</p>
<p>What Upton does is make this lineup better – modestly so, perhaps, but depth is critical during a playoff run. However, his acquisition does more than strengthen this team as it chases down another pennant. It hedges against the uncertain future of Jose Bautista and Michael Saunders, both of whom are free agents at the end of this season (Upton is under contract through the end of 2017) and the unlikelihood of re-signing both of them. Leaving the Padres on the hook for all but $5 million remaining on Upton&#8217;s contract also provides payroll relief into 2017 that could be spent on other areas of need.</p>
<p>The trade of Drew Storen to the Seattle Mariners for Joaquin Benoit is indicative of another trend we have seen from this front office, that of their willingness to take a chance on buy-low reclamation candidates. Storen himself was one such project. When the Jays traded for him in the offseason, Storen had just come off a poor second half after having lost the closers&#8217; role in Washington, a period of time which saw his ERA spike from 1.89 to 5.82 while his strike out to walk ratio dropped from 4.75 to 3.63. The Jays, in need of options in the bullpen, took a shot, hoping that Storen could provide value. Instead, he had a 6.21 ERA in 38 appearances during which he gave up 23 earned runs over 33.1 innings pitched. Simply put, he was no longer an option out of the pen.</p>
<p>The Jays cut bait when they designated Storen for assignment, demonstrating a willingness to essentially admit that the deal was a wash and that it was time to move forward. Enter Benoit, who had a 5.18 ERA in 26 appearances with Seattle this season, one which has been mared by a shoulder injury that caused Benoit to spend some time on the disabled list. As <a href="http://www.torontosun.com/2016/07/27/reliever-joaquin-benoit-ready-to-prove-himself-with-blue-jays" target="_blank">Melissa Couto of the Canadian Press reports</a>, he is eager to prove himself with the Jays as they head towards the playoffs. Whether or not Benoit works out is nearly irrelevant given that the Jays gave up nothing to get him. He&#8217;s simply a guy who, if he performs well enough, will provide one more option out of the pen. If he is unable to contribute down the stretch, given the cost to get him, it was worth the shot.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">Melvin Upton Jr. shares Benoit&#8217;s desire to make the most of this opportunity. A five-tool player out of high school, Upton&#8217;s major league career hasn&#8217;t exactly followed the trajectory one might have predicted. Though productive, he was difficult to work with during his years in Tampa Bay (TSN&#8217;s Dirk Hayhurst <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/what-the-jays-are-getting-in-upton-1.533006" target="_blank">relays an interesting story to that effect</a>), while his time in Atlanta was downright abysmal (Craig Edwards takes a close look at <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/melvin-upton-jr-heads-to-toronto-continuing-preller-purge/" target="_blank">Upton&#8217;s stats through various eras of his career</a>).  Now, despite being on downside of his career, Upton hopes to put it all together. As with Benoit, the cost to acquire Upton was so low that any upside he brings outweighs the risk.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">None of this changes the fact that the Jays still need to acquire at least one starting pitcher who is a better option than Drew Hutchison and, if possible, one more reliever, specifically a lefty specialist. It&#8217;s not that they can&#8217;t win as currently constructed, but once again, depth is key, and such acquisitions would provide insurance in case of injuries. Whether or not Ross Atkins can pull it off is an entirely different matter. And, while it has been confirmed by the likes of Ken Rosenthal and Jon Heyman that the Jays are indeed chasing down teams that are looking to sell assets at the trade deadline (Richard Griffin offers a <a href="http://www.thechronicleherald.ca/sports/1384210-griffin-jays-need-a-starter-better-than-hutchison" target="_blank">list of potential trade targets</a>), there is a portion of this fan base that will undoubtedly use the inability to make deal (should it come to that) to fuel the narrative that this management team is more concerned with restocking the farm system (an area of weakness with which they <em>should</em> be concerned) than winning a championship. The perception, to some, will be that Atkins didn&#8217;t try hard enough to make a trade.</p>
<p style="text-align: left">The reality, of course, is that this is business, and if you lack the currency of the market (namely high-level prospects), you will likely walk away empty-handed. The Jays are not going to trade for the likes of Chris Sale. Not this trade deadline. But, what Atkins has demonstrated not only this past week but in his entire, albeit short, tenure with the Blue Jays is a willingness to be creative while taking a flier on low-risk, high-reward candidates (see Grilli, Jason and Biagini, Joe). If the Blue Jays do make a move before the deadline (and I believe they will), it won&#8217;t be jaw-dropper like the Price deal. But, that won&#8217;t mean it isn&#8217;t a solid move. And, with a little luck, it will be just enough.</p>
<p>Quick Hits:</p>
<ul>
<li>As the trade deadline looms large, so too does the decision regarding Aaron Sanchez. The topic has been debated and discussed, pondered and prodded, with no definitive &#8220;right&#8221; answer. His transition to the bullpen &#8211; which appears inevitable &#8211;  will be unprecedented within the MLB. Some have wondered how such a move will be perceived by the team. While few are offering much of anything aside from the traditional stock answer, Josh Donaldson provided <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/page/tradedeadline_sanchez/when-comes-aaron-sanchez-toronto-options-easy" target="_blank">some interesting thoughts </a>on the pending move. Like Marco Estrada two weeks ago, Donaldson seems want Sanchez to remain in the rotation. And, who can blame him? I will readily admit to being on Team Start Sanchez, and believe that science can be used to argue both sides of the debate. And, while I do understand the Jays&#8217; position on this &#8211; really, it should be considered a good thing that they want to be cautious with their young star &#8211; it&#8217;s going to be an incredibly tough sell to both this team and this fan base when management finally pulls the trigger.</li>
<li>If you are looking forward to the future of this team, or if you are simply a <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/mlb/video/guerrero-jr-carrying-big-name-expectations~921063" target="_blank">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.</a> enthusiast like I am, you&#8217;ll enjoy this Rick Westhead profile of the seventeen year old phenom.</li>
<li>And, finally. <a href="https://amp.twimg.com/v/eeecf93c-543e-48b7-8813-bc5e955c72ca" target="_blank">Meet Nigel Batson</a>, the Blue Jays&#8217; Executive Chef, as he shares some secrets about a few of the player&#8217;s favourite foods. And while the idea of eating crumbled milk and cookies with a spoon isn&#8217;t exactly my cup of tea, if it keeps the MVP happy, I&#8217;m all for it.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Add a BJ &#8211; Toronto Acquires Melvin (Bossman) Upton Jr.</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/26/blue-jays-add-a-bj-toronto-reportedly-acquires-melvin-bossman-upton-jr/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/26/blue-jays-add-a-bj-toronto-reportedly-acquires-melvin-bossman-upton-jr/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 26 Jul 2016 12:31:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Melvin Upton]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4891</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki and David Price it&#8217;s not, but the Blue Jays have called the opposing dugout and have swung a trade with the visiting San Diego Padres. Sources: #BlueJays agree to acquire Melvin Upton Jr. from #Padres for Class A prospect. Financial terms not known. Likely finalized today. &#8212; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) July 26, 2016 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Troy Tulowitzki and David Price it&#8217;s not, but the Blue Jays have called the opposing dugout and have swung a trade with the visiting San Diego Padres.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Sources: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> agree to acquire Melvin Upton Jr. from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Padres?src=hash">#Padres</a> for Class A prospect. Financial terms not known. Likely finalized today.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/757881759266643968">July 26, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Melvin Upton Jr., formerly known as B.J. Upton when he played for the division rival Tampa Bay Rays, will be joining a Toronto ball club that, if you believe the reports, was desperately in need of a right handed outfielder to support the lefty bats of Michael Saunders and Ezequiel Carrera.</p>
<p>After putting together six consecutive good seasons totaling 18.8 WARP with Tampa Bay, Upton was rewarded with a five-year, seventy-five million dollar contract from the Atlanta Braves, where he was to join an incredibly talented outfield with his brother Justin on one flank and Jason Heyward on the other. Unfortunately for he and the Braves, his career took an immediate and devastating turn for the worst. Upton hit a paltry .184/.268/.289 in 2013, and was one of baseball&#8217;s least productive players with <em>negative </em>2.1 WARP.</p>
<p>With nowhere to go but up, things have improved in the years since. Upton has even performed as something resembling a league average hitter over the past couple of seasons with the Padres since being a salary dump in the Craig Kimbrel trade. But still, unless the prospect going the other way is negligible this acquisition doesn&#8217;t make a ton of sense. With SD picking up a lot of the salary, it could end up being somebody better than expected. </p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Padres?src=hash">#Padres</a> will be paying down a very substantial sum of Melvin Upton&#39;s contract, helps minimize risk for <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a>.</p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/757912971087601665">July 26, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Upton is a right handed bat, sure, but his career doesn&#8217;t scream left hander masher like you&#8217;d expect a pickup designed to support Saunders and Carrera would, and should be. Against lefties, Upton is a career .248/.351/.409 hitter, and against righties, he&#8217;s a .244/.312/.402 hitter. The only tangible difference between the two is that he&#8217;s considerably better at drawing walks versus southpaws (13.5 percent vs. 8.7 percent).</p>
<p>The fielding metrics on Upton are also all over the map, but there&#8217;s no arguing that he&#8217;s a significantly better fielder than both Saunders and Jose Bautista, so one of his many (minor) roles will be that of a defensive replacement in the corner outfield. Melvin remains an outstanding base runner as well, which creates a potentially smooth transition to that defensive role should one of Saunders or Bautista do what they do best &#8212; reach base &#8212; in the later innings of games with a small lead. The biggest question mark surrounds where, and how, manager John Gibbons wants to get Upton&#8217;s bat into the lineup. He still has some pop as his hard hit rate and isolated power are both above average, but he&#8217;s something of a square peg to fit a round hole with Jose Bautista returning this week.</p>
<p>Saunders has crushed lefties this year, and while surely some of that is luck, he&#8217;s not going to turn into Adam Lind over night. Pillar is just too good of a fielder to remove from the outfield, and Jose Bautista is of course Jose Bautista. Upton&#8217;s best opportunity at consistent at-bats may require some creativity on Gibby&#8217;s part and some flexibility on Edwin Encarnacion&#8217;s. If Encarnacion can play first base a little more, both Saunders and Bautista can take their beat-up lower halves to the designated hitter spot with some regularity, allowing Upton to slot into the vacated outfielder corner while Justin Smoak takes his talents to the bench.</p>
<p>But that&#8217;s just yet another question to be answered regarding a trade that is already surrounded with questions, so for the time being at least, all Blue Jays fans can do is sit on their hands and wait patiently.</p>
<p>Check back for more analysis once full terms are announced. </p>
<p><strong>UPDATE</strong><br />
<em> Content below written by Joshua Howsam</em></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Padres get rhp hansel rodriguez for melvin Upton. $ goes to (or.</p>
<p>&mdash; Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/757940298429427713">July 26, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>The piece going to San Diego is Advanced Rookie Ball RHP, Hansel Rodriguez. The young righty has a big fastball (reached the upper 90s), but command and secondary stuff still need a lot of work. He has a high ceiling, but it will be years before he makes the big leagues, if at all. </p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Padres are paying all except $5M on melvin Upton. He has $22M plus left.</p>
<p>&mdash; Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/757957216649539584">July 26, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>This is what really makes the deal a solid one for the Blue Jays. Yes, Upton is limited in the ways mentioned above, but he still does provide speed, power, and a whole bunch of position flexibility to the team. He also fills a potential hole next year, as two thirds of the Toronto starting outfield (Saunders and Bautista) are pending free agents. At such a low cost (both in terms of money and players &#8211; Rodriguez is so far away that there is no need for a win now team to hold him), even a marginal upgrade such at this one becomes a very good move. In addition, the deal provides a level of cost certainty that will allow the Jays to spend elsewhere in the offseason (say on Bautista or Encarnacion). </p>
<p>Nice move, Messrs. Atkins and Shapiro</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jake Roth-USA TODAY SPORTS<br />
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