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	<title>Toronto &#187; Kansas City Royals</title>
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		<title>Report: Kansas City Royals Linked to Marco Estrada</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/19/report-kansas-city-royals-linked-to-marco-estrada/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/19/report-kansas-city-royals-linked-to-marco-estrada/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Jul 2017 22:48:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12494</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A report from SB Nation&#8217;s Chris Cotillo earlier today linked the Kansas City Royals and Blue Jays&#8217; pending free agent Marco Estrada: Still count the Royals as buyers. Expect them to be in on rental SPs. Two names I&#39;ve heard linked to them: Jaime Garcia and Marco Estrada. &#8212; Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) July 19, 2017 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A report from SB Nation&#8217;s Chris Cotillo earlier today linked the Kansas City Royals and Blue Jays&#8217; pending free agent Marco Estrada:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Still count the Royals as buyers. Expect them to be in on rental SPs. Two names I&#39;ve heard linked to them: Jaime Garcia and Marco Estrada.</p>
<p>&mdash; Chris Cotillo (@ChrisCotillo) <a href="https://twitter.com/ChrisCotillo/status/887738936679968775">July 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Estrada, 34, has struggled in 2017, with a 5.33 ERA in 19 games started for the Blue Jays, after two very successful years at the front of the rotation in Toronto. What has plagued him this season has been a mystery, and numerous attempts to correct various mechanical issues have failed thus far.</p>
<p>After Cotillo&#8217;s report, I asked a Blue Jays source to confirm, and although he was not able to confirm the Royals&#8217; interest in Estrada, he was able to say that if the Blue Jays were to trade Estrada this trade deadline, the return would likely be made of players in Advanced-A ball or Double-A.</p>
<p>Additionally, the source pointed out that if the Blue Jays were to trade with the Royals, some players they could be interested in are OF Donnie Dewees, 1B Samir Duenez, RHP Glenn Sparkman (yes, him), or RHP Andres Machado. Dewees, Duenez, and Sparkman are all currently with the AA Northwest Arkansas Naturals, while Machado is with the Wilmington Blue Rocks in Advanced-A. Dewees was ranked Kansas City&#8217;s 11th top prospect according to <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=kc" target="_blank">MLB Pipeline</a>, while Duenez came in at 17th on their list.</p>
<p>Although those players may seem like a small return for a player with a track record of success, it is important to keep in mind that Estrada is under control for just two more months, and also the market that the club finds itself in right now. The trade market is relatively weak, and it looks like it will be a buyer&#8217;s market in the coming weeks leading up to the deadline. Combine that with Estrada not having much success in 2017, and the Blue Jays won&#8217;t necessarily be able to get much of a prospect return in a potential trade for him.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Royals 7, Blue Jays 1; Bloops, Bunts, and Blasts Beat Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/07/recap-royals-7-blue-jays-1-bloops-bunts-and-blasts-beat-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Aug 2016 21:05:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Royals]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5271</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays dropped the rubber game of a three game set to Kansas City on Sunday afternoon as the offense once again failed to deliver in a 7-1 defeat at the hands of the reigning champs. Marcus Stroman was bested by Yordano Ventura and the Jays failed to take advantage of their nine baserunners [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays dropped the rubber game of a three game set to Kansas City on Sunday afternoon as the offense once again failed to deliver in a 7-1 defeat at the hands of the reigning champs. Marcus Stroman was bested by Yordano Ventura and the Jays failed to take advantage of their nine baserunners on the day in a disappointing end to the road trip.</p>
<p>Stroman struggled to deal with Royals Baseball<sup>(TM)</sup>, victimized by bloops and bunts and only exacerbated the problems with some mistakes of his own. In the second inning Stroman fielded a weak comebacker after issuing a leadoff walk to Kendrys Morales. Stroman fired high on what should&#8217;ve been a double play and allowed Alex Gordon to reach on a fielder&#8217;s choice. Two singles and an RBI bunt (plus a Stroman throwing error) later, Kansas City took a 2-0 lead. A leadoff home run in the fifth inning from Alcides Escobar accounted for the other run off Stroman on the day. His final line reads 5.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 2 BB, 4 K on 95 pitches.</p>
<p>Scott Feldman worked a clean sixth but ran into trouble in the seventh. The Royals came back out and collected three straight hits (one bunt, of course) off of Scott Feldman to load the bases with no outs. After a strikeout of Lorenzo Cain, Brett Cecil came in to try and put out the fire. He struck out Eric Hosmer and then conceded a two out grand slam to Morales to put the game away.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays had runners on in five innings but only had one make it to third base. With just one hit since the fourth inning, the team wasted four walks from Ventura and failed to drive in any runs. The lone run of the day came in the seventh when Darwin Barney scored on a wild pitch. It was a deflating day for the Blue Jays who could muster only six hits in dropping the series finale.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The top play of the day came in the second inning when backup catcher Drew Butera poked a soft liner into the outfield to cash in Alex Gordon. Gordon was the batter who reached thanks to Stroman&#8217;s bad throw on a double play attempt. That misfire cost Stroman in the end, as Butera&#8217;s RBI single notched a 0.128 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The bottom play of the game also came in the second inning when Alcides Escobar grounded into a strange double play. With runners on second and third, Escobar grounded out sharply to Edwin Encarnacion at first. Butera held up at third but Raul Mondesi foolishly took off from second base. Encarnacion astutely ran Mondesi to third and forced Butera to head home where he was tagged out by Josh Thole after a brief rundown. The play was good for a -0.094 WPA.</p>
<h3>Devon Travis Still Swinging</h3>
<p>The sophomore second baseman pushed his hitting streak to four and has hit safely in nine of his last eleven games. Travis entered Toronto&#8217;s July 10th game against Detroit with a .262 batting average but has climbed all the way up to .293. Since that day he&#8217;s hit .355 with four home runs and 10 RBI. While the rest of the team is slumping, Travis has been excelling at the top of the lineup. He looks to have reclaimed the leadoff role and will hopefully continue to provide a steady on-base presence atop the order.</p>
<h3>Offensive Outage</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays are going through something of a late-summer swoon as of late, having scored just 17 runs on this seven game road trip. If not for the hot streak of Travis, the team might be looking at a very different week in the rearview mirror. The strikeouts piled up in Houston and it felt like the Jays couldn&#8217;t catch a break in Kansas City. Whatever the case, the team will try to leave those troubles behind and get back on track with a brief homestand.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Despite dropping two of three to Kansas City, the Blue Jays will be satisfied with a 4-3 record on their road trip through Houston and KC. The team returns home tomorrow to kick off a three game set with the Tampa Bay Rays. R.A. Dickey (8-12, 4.49 ERA) will toe the rubber against right hander Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 3.70 ERA) with first pitch scheduled for 7:07 PM EST.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Denny Medley-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Royals 4, Blue Jays 2; Royals Rake on Sanchez</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/06/recap-royals-4-blue-jays-2-royals-rake-on-sanchez/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 07 Aug 2016 01:58:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Molly Tissenbaum]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5238</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With his spot in the new six-man rotation solidified, Aaron Sanchez took the hill tonight against the Royals to try and keep the Jays undefeated against the Royals in 2016. But before he stepped over the white line tonight, he had a 1-0 lead courtesy of Devon Travis, who hit the Jays&#8217; 16th straight solo [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With his spot in the new six-man rotation solidified, Aaron Sanchez took the hill tonight against the Royals to try and keep the Jays undefeated against the Royals in 2016. But before he stepped over the white line tonight, he had a 1-0 lead courtesy of Devon Travis, who hit the Jays&#8217; 16th straight solo homerun to lead off the game. Travis has been on a tear lately, adding two more RBI for the Jays tonight. Sanchez was as consistent as ever, working through the early innings with ease. In the 4th he surrendered back to back one out singles, but was able to get Kendrys Morales to strike out, and Salvador Perez grounded out to end the inning. Sanchez ran into trouble in the 5th, giving up a leadoff single to Alex Gordon, and then throwing a wild pitch which allowed Gordon to advance to second. Paul Orlando then singled, and Paul Mondesi bunted his way aboard to load the bases with nobody out. When the lineup turned over for the Royals, Escobar hit an infield single which scored one run, and the inning appeared to be taking a positive turn when Sanchez got Cuthbert to line out softly to second base. He then got Cain to hit a ball on the ground to Donaldson, who threw Paul Orlando out at home. Hosmer extended the inning with a two out, RBI single into centerfield. Sanchez gave up another run in the 6th inning after Orlando singled and rookie Raul Mondesi smacked a triple, his first extra-base hit as a big leaguer, which plated Orlando. Devon Travis was the only offense that the Jays could muster tonight, as Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, and Martin all went without a hit.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With the bases loaded in the 5th inning and 1 out, Aaron Sanchez got Lorenzo Cain to hit a ground ball to Josh Donaldson at third base. Donaldson opted to get the lead runner at home, and Russ Martin did not attempt to turn a double play (-.112).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Also in the 5th, Eric Hosmer picked up a two out base hit and RBI, which put the Royals ahead of the Blue Jays (.266).</p>
<h3>[Power at the top]</h3>
<p>In the last 15 games, Devon Travis is hitting .345, with an OBP of .387, and he is slugging .603. In the last two nights, he&#8217;s got 4 RBI, while going 4 for 9.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Coming off a great start last time out against Houston, Marcus Stroman will take the hill tomorrow afternoon at 2:15 pm in the series finale against the Royals. He will face Yordano Ventura, who has not faced the Jays this year.</p>
<p><em style="line-height: 1.5;text-align: right">Lead Photo: John Rieger-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 4, Royals 3; Travis Goes Yard Twice as Jays Hold On For Victory</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/05/recap-blue-jays-4-royals-3-travis-goes-yard-twice-as-jays-hold-on-for-victory/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 06 Aug 2016 03:11:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5205</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays&#8217; most important trade acquisition, Francisco Liriano, made his debut tonight. Both the Jays and Liriano, who is in the midst of a below-career-average year, hope his reunion with his former Pirates teammate Russell Martin will rejuvenate his flailing season. A lead-off home run by Devon Travis gave the Jays an early lead, but [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; most important trade acquisition, Francisco Liriano, made his debut tonight. Both the Jays and Liriano, who is in the midst of a below-career-average year, hope his reunion with his former Pirates teammate Russell Martin will rejuvenate his flailing season. A lead-off home run by Devon Travis gave the Jays an early lead, but they failed to capitalize on a bases-loaded, two-out opportunity. The Royals promptly got that run back when lead-off hitter <a>Alcides Escobar </a>reached base on an error by Darwin Barney and eventually came around to score. Royals&#8217; starter Dillon Gee struggled with his command, surrendering walks to Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion in the third, both of whom scored. Liriano was missing his spots, but he managed to keep the ball down and that, combined with the velocity on his fastball (he hit 96 mph on the radar gun) and the movement on his slider allowed him to induce primarily ground balls. It wasn&#8217;t until the fifth inning when he started to look shaky, beginning with a mistake to Paulo Orlando that was crushed for a lead-off home run followed by a walk and a Lorenzo Cain triple to tie the game. The two teams traded outs until the top of the ninth when Devon Travis took Kelvin Herrera deep for his second home run of the game. A terrifying moment ensued moments later when Josh Donaldson was hit in the earflap by an errant changeup. Thankfully, he shook off the trainers and appeared to be alright. The Royals threatened in the bottom of the ninth to provide some drama, but the Jays held on to win their fourth game in a row.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With two outs in the top of the ninth, Devon Travis got hold of a pitch and drilled it 373 feet over the left field wall to give the Jays a 4-3 lead and the top play of the game by WPA (.414).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Royals had a golden opportunity to tie the game in the bottom of the ninth, when Paulo Orlando reached second on Darwin Barney&#8217;s second error of the game. Inexplicably, Orlando attempted to steal third and was gunned down by Russell Martin with an assist by Barney at third, providing the bottom play of the game by WPA (.-232).</p>
<h3>Quality Start</h3>
<p>In order for the Jays&#8217; plan to run with a six-man rotation to keep Aaron Sanchez in the rotation to succeed, Francisco Liriano must be able to pitch well enough to give the team an opportunity to win each time he starts. He did just that tonight, giving up 3 runs (two earned) on 7 hits and two walks with five strike outs over six innings pitched.</p>
<h3>Devo&#8217;s First Multi-Homerun Game</h3>
<p>Devon Travis &#8211; who has simply been a revelation &#8211; went yard in both his first and last at-bat of the game, which was his first multi-homerun game of his major league career.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The man at the centre of all the attention this week, Aaron Sanchez and his American League-leading ERA (2.71) will seek his twelfth win of the season tomorrow. The Royals will counter with lefty Danny Duffy, who threw an absolutely dominant one-hitter with 16 strike outs against the Rays his last outing. Expect Sanchez  to be good, and, if both starters perform to their season-norm, expect quite the pitchers&#8217; duel. First pitch flies at 7:15 PM ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Peter Aiken-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 4, Royals 2; Bring Out The Brooms!</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/06/recap-blue-jays-4-royals-2-bring-out-the-brooms/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Jul 2016 01:43:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4443</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That was one heck of a ballgame and it concluded in the best possible outcome, a sweep of the Kansas City Royals. Marcus Stroman was excellent for a second consecutive outing, not giving up a baserunner until the sixth inning. Michael Saunders led the offense with a home run and the game winning RBI in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That was one heck of a ballgame and it concluded in the best possible outcome, a sweep of the Kansas City Royals. Marcus Stroman was excellent for a second consecutive outing, not giving up a baserunner until the sixth inning. Michael Saunders led the offense with a home run and the game winning RBI in the eighth, cashing in Edwin Encarnacion from second base. The Jays looked to be in control for the majority of the game but never generated a large lead. They led 2-0 through five innings at which point Stroman issued a leadoff walk to Brett Eibner and Alcides Escobar followed that up with an RBI triple. Stroman was able to induce two consecutive ground balls which kept Escobar at third and he polished off Whitt Merrifield to end the threat. That wasn&#8217;t the end, however, as in the eighth Brett Eibner hit a game-tying home run and I thought this one was destined for extras. I was quickly proven wrong in the bottom half of the inning as the Jays piled on two runs. Roberto Osuna came out in the ninth and closed out the game, keeping everyone&#8217;s blood pressure quite low. The Jays have won five in a row and, it is worth repeating, have swept the Kansas City Royals.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The best play of the game came late in this one. With the game tied at two&#8217;s and Encarnacion standing on second after a two out double, Saunders stepped to the plate. He cranked a liner to center field which scored Encarnacion after a terribly off-line throw by Jarrod Dyson. With one swing of the bat, Saunders increased the Jays chance of winning by 0.281 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The worst play in the game occurred in the seventh inning with Salvador Perez at the plate. Eric Hosmer had just singled to right field to lead-off the inning when Perez buried a ball to third base. A relatively routine double play snuffed out anything the Royals had going in the seventh. Perez decreased his team&#8217;s chance to win the game by -0.145 WPA by grounding into this double play.</p>
<h3>Marcus Stroman</h3>
<p>All eyes were on Stroman coming into this start. Over the last two weeks, many pundits were calling for Stroman to be sent down to AAA to work on his delivery and refine his pitches. Last start, Stroman began to silence those critics; going six and two thirds innings allowing just one run while striking out six and walking only one. That was against a red-hot Cleveland team. Tonight was much of the same, as Kansas City was not on the same hot streak as the Indians were but they are the defending World Champs and Stroman had to bring it again tonight. Well, let me tell you, he certainly did. Every single one of the first 15 batters of the game went back to the dugout after their AB. Nine of those 15 batters were retired via the groundball as Stroman&#8217;s sinker was on fire tonight. Stroman went eight innings, giving up three hits, striking out six, walking one and allowing two earned runs. Marcus was working on his delivery over the past couple of weeks and it appears the tweaks have worked. He displayed exceptional accuracy tonight, requiring only 85 pitches to get through eight innings. Hopefully Stro-show can continue this new found dominance after the All-Star break.</p>
<h3>Michael Saunders Has A Chance To Be An All-Star</h3>
<p>Michael Saunders has been named as one of the five remaining AL players that fans can vote into the mid-summer classic. The MLB released a vote total today and it had the west-coast Canadian at the top of the list. It would be truly incredible for the Jays to have four representatives at the All-Star game. He followed up this announcement with a spectacular game, launching a home run to right field and then cashing in the game winning run on a single to center field. Keep it up Saunders and hopefully us fans can vote him in!</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays play host to the Detroit Tigers (45-40) for four games starting on Thursday and ending on Sunday. The Jays are 1-2 against Detroit this year and this will be the last meeting between the two teams during the regular season. After that, the All-Star break commences and we will be able to see Encarnacion, Donaldson and Estrada get honoured for their first-half accomplishments. Drew Hutchison (1-0, 5.40) will face Justin Verlander (8-6, 4.11).</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Jays 8, Royals 3; Blue Jays Hit Home Runs, Water is Wet</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/05/recap-jays-8-royals-3-blue-jays-hit-home-runs-water-is-wet/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Jul 2016 01:49:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4403</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Chris Young facing the Blue Jays&#8217; powerful line-up seemed like a bad matchup for the Kansas City Royals, and the game bore that out. The Jays socked four home runs, two of them by Josh Donaldson, chasing Young early en route to an 8-3 victory. That he only allowed six runs was somewhat flattering to the embattled [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Chris Young facing the Blue Jays&#8217; powerful line-up seemed like a bad matchup for the Kansas City Royals, and the game bore that out. The Jays socked four home runs, two of them by Josh Donaldson, chasing Young early en route to an 8-3 victory. That he only allowed six runs was somewhat flattering to the embattled Royals starter, who was hit hard and often in an outing that got into just the third inning before he was mercifully pulled. Former Toronto pitcher Chien-Ming Wang relieved him, and managed to keep the Jays mostly at bay after that, but the damage had already been done.</p>
<p>Blue Jays starter R.A. Dickey looked fantastic early, his knuckler dancing all over the place as he struck out five of the first six hitters he faced. He did get into trouble a couple times over his seven inning outing, but worked out of it, and enjoyed the unusually strong support he got from the offense. The eight strikeouts he recorded were his second highest total of the season. An injury-depleted Royals lineup wasn&#8217;t able to mount much against him or Joe Biagini, who pitched the last two innings to finish up the contest.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The rain came early to the Rogers Centre tonight, as Young gave up an early centre field dinger to Josh Donaldson with one out in the first inning. The opening strike for the Blue Jays gave them a 1-0 lead, and increased their chance to win by 10.3 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>After two airtight innings from Dickey, he ran into some trouble in the third inning, allowing a double and a walk with one out. Christian Colon came to the plate and grounded into a double play, ending the inning and the threat, lowering the Royals&#8217; chances to win by 10.2 percentage points.</p>
<h3>The Good and Bad of R.A. Dickey</h3>
<p>Dickey looked primed for a dominant outing after striking out the side in the first and following it up with two more in the second. His knuckleball was fluttering in and out of the strike zone, and the Royals weren&#8217;t close to it. As it happens with Dickey, the knuckleball stopped finding the strike zone, and he did get into some trouble in the middle innings. But he limited the damage, getting a couple of double plays, and even getting a strike out on a fastball in the fifth inning.</p>
<h3>Baserunning Mistakes</h3>
<p>The Jays tend to be aggressive on the base paths despite not having much team speed, and they made some mistakes in this game. With a 6-0 lead, one out in the third, and Wang in the game for the Royals, Kevin Pillar tried to steal second off Salvador Perez, who gunned him down. In the next inning, Ezequiel Carrera was caught in a run down on a ground ball to the shortstop, and was out between second and third (though he did stay on the bases long enough to get Donaldson to second base, essentially replacing him). Then, in the sixth inning, Devon Travis inexplicably tried to steal second base with Josh Thole at the plate, in what might have been a failed hit-and-run. Though none of the mistakes mattered to the result, they were still very curious.</p>
<h3>The Offense Continues to Roll</h3>
<p>Even with Jose Bautista on the disabled list, the Jays&#8217; offense has been rolling recently, scoring a total of  40 runs in their last four games. Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki continued hitting everything in sight, accounting for three home runs and five RBIs between them on the evening. Though they won&#8217;t always have the pleasure of facing Chris Young, it&#8217;s been fantastic to see the Jays beating up on teams much like the 2015 team did, rolling out to a big lead and never letting the opponent back into the game. Hopefully the hitters can stay hot, and the Jays can keep racking up wins.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow&#8217;s third game of the series also starts at 7:07 ET, and sees the Jays send opening day starter Marcus Stroman (6-4, 5.08 ERA) to the mound. He will face free-agent acquisition Ian Kennedy (6-7, 4.04). After struggling for the last couple of months, Stroman had an encouraging start Saturday against the Indians, going six innings and allowing just one run, striking out six batters. Despite coming up with the Yankees, Kennedy hasn&#8217;t faced the Blue Jays since September 13, 2007, when he threw seven strong innings in an eventual loss.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 6, Royals 2; Battling Flu, Sanchez Shuts Down Kansas City</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/04/recap-blue-jays-6-royals-2-battling-flu-sanchez-shuts-down-kansas-city/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Jul 2016 01:54:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4385</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Tonight was the first meeting between the Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Blue Jays since last October&#8217;s American League Championship Series. The Blue Jays sent Aaron Sanchez, coming off a spectacular start against Colorado, against Royals starter Edinson Volquez, who had a 6.42 ERA in his last six road starts. This game was a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Tonight was the first meeting between the Kansas City Royals and the Toronto Blue Jays since last October&#8217;s American League Championship Series. The Blue Jays sent Aaron Sanchez, coming off a spectacular start against Colorado, against Royals starter Edinson Volquez, who had a 6.42 ERA in his last six road starts.</p>
<p>This game was a pitchers dual for six and a half innings. The Jays could only manufacture a run in the first with ground out by Michael Saunders and the Royals run came off a home run in the top of the seventh by Kendrys Morales. However, in the bottom of the seventh, with Volquez&#8217;s pitch count over 90, the Jays were able to blow the game open. They would take advantage of Volquez and reliever Luke Hochevar&#8217;s wildness to score five runs, highlighted by two-run singles by both Darwin Barney and Josh Donaldson.</p>
<p>A ninth inning solo home run by Kansas City first baseman Eric Hosmer off of Brett Cecil would be the only other scoring by the Royals on the evening.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the top of the seventh, Kendrys Morales, who has been the Royals hottest hitter, led off the inning with the Jays leading 1-0.  He proceeded to hit the only mistake thrown by Sanchez, a 3-2 fastball, over the right-centre field fence.  This tied the game (momentarily) and increased the Royals win expectancy by 19.6 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the bottom of fourth with runners on first and second and two out, Kevin Pillar lined a single to left field.  Jays coach Luis Rivera sent Edwin Encarnacion home to try to extend the Toronto lead. However, Alex Gordon showed why he is one of the best outfielders in the American League and threw a perfect strike to home to just beat Encarnacion. This lowered the Blue Jays&#8217; chances of winning by four percentage points.</p>
<h3>Sanchez Being Sanchez</h3>
<p>Tonight&#8217;s game was the first time the Royals faced Aaron Sanchez as a starter, and they encountered a pitcher who is throwing as good as anyone is in the game today. Sanchez mixed his fastball and deadly curveball to keep the Royals off balance all evening. He pitched eight innings for the second consetuvie start, and tonight do si in front of his parents, who were sitting directly behind home plate. Throwing 96 pitches, he allowed only three hits, one run, one walk, and notched three strike outs. Besides the home run by Morales, no Royals batter reached second base. This was his eighth straight victory and he continues to make it harder for the Jays decision makers that are considering moving him to the bullpen. Oh, and he had the flu tonight as well.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will try to extend their winning streak to four games tomorrow night as they continue the series with the Royals. Kansas City will send Chris Young (2-7, 6.24 ERA), who has struggled on the road with an 8.53 ERA, against Toronto knuckleballer R.A. Dickey (5-9, 4.21 ERA), who has a 3.32 ERA over the last two months. First pitch at the Rogers Centre at 7:07 p.m. EST.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Know Your Enemy: A Look at Blue Jay Haters Around the League</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/22/know-your-enemy-a-look-at-blue-jay-haters-around-the-league/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 22 Jun 2016 14:22:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darren O'Day]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Farrell]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Wright]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Phil Hughes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Texas Rangers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yordano Ventura]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4039</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to many people outside of Canada, the Blue Jays are not the most loved team in baseball. It’s starting to feel like every other week someone is spouting off, or throwing at, one of the Jays’ best players. I, like most Blue Jays fans, do not understand all of the hate. While I can [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to many people outside of Canada, the Blue Jays are not the most loved team in baseball. It’s starting to feel like every other week someone is spouting off, or throwing at, one of the Jays’ best players. I, like most Blue Jays fans, do not understand all of the hate. While I can understand that opposing players get frustrated with inflated international cell phone bills, Toronto still seems to be receiving a disproportionate amount of Major League Baseball’s vitriol. Most of the time, Blue Jay hate seems to be rooted in talk of disrespect, playing the game the right way and showing up opponents. But I have a hard time believing that Sam Dyson would throw the same shade at Mickey Mantle that he has at Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>In my opinion, all the criticism is just code for the underlying truth that the Blue Jays are good at baseball and appear to be excited and happy about it &#8211; an ethos that doesn’t sit well with some others around the league. It’s always important to know your enemy, so in case you’ve missed some of the more recent dust ups, here is a recap of current Blue Jay detractors, critics and haters throughout Major League Baseball:</p>
<p><b>Minnesota Twins – Joe Vavra/Phil Hughes</b></p>
<p>One of the more bizarre incidents of on-field feuding this season has to be Josh Donaldson’s clash with the Minnesota Twins. While grounding out in the first inning of a Saturday afternoon game, Donaldson ran down the first base line at a speed that was clocked by stadium radar guns at “not playing the game the right way.” This upset Twins’ bench coach Joe Vavra, who said something inflammatory to JD, laying waste to the reputation of the polite and friendly Midwesterner. The next day, when Donaldson took Twins starter Phil Hughes deep, he glared at Vavra as he crossed home plate. This led Phil Hughes to throw two pitches at Donaldson in the 6<sup>th</sup> inning, without being ejected from the game. After the game, Donaldson explained why both this situation and the Trial By Combat policy that Major League baseball adheres to is so maddeningly frustrating. The Twins dislike of the Blue Jays also proves that you don’t need to hit a franchise altering home run for someone to get irrationally offended. In my opinion, Twins pitchers should be more concerned with hitting 90 miles an hour instead of opposing players.</p>
<p><b>Texas Rangers – Rougned Odor</b></p>
<p>Oddly enough, the only person on this list to publicly declare their respect for Jose Bautista is the one who decided to punch him in the face. It seems as though Odor puts about as much thought into his on field actions as he does into his post game statements, deciding that slugging Bautista in the jaw was an adequate response to a late, but not dangerous, slide into second base &#8211; proving that you can’t spell Ranger without rage. Odor’s attack on Joey Bats, has made him public enemy number one in Toronto and the creator of a cottage industry’s worth of t-shirt and punch related memorabilia in Texas. The most recent chapter in the Jays-Rangers rivalry has anointed Texas as Toronto’s most hated rival and should provide plenty of fodder if the teams do happen to meet in the playoffs again this season.</p>
<p><b>Pete Rose – A Casino Somewhere</b></p>
<p>During last year’s postseason run, Doctor Pete Rose fired <a href="http://ftw.usatoday.com/2015/10/pete-rose-josh-donaldson-alds-game-1-head-injury-collision-mlb">criticism</a> at Josh Donaldson for leaving Game One of the ALDS after potentially sustaining a concussion; comments that indicated Rose himself may have sustained a serious head injury at some point. While his criticisms of Donaldson as a soft player make it abundantly clear that Rose knows nothing about head injuries or Donaldson’s style of play, Rose should know plenty about staying in games too long – just look at his final season as a player in 1986.</p>
<p><b>Baltimore Orioles &#8211; Darren O’Day</b></p>
<p>The longest standing Blue Jay rivalry is the Orioles/O’Day conflict that dates back to a time so long ago (2013) that Jose Bautista wasn’t even sporting his signature beard when the dispute began. The issues centred on a circular series of brush back pitches, celebrated home runs and outs, and retaliatory beanings between Jose Bautista and Darren O’Day. Blue Jay historians also note that the Bautista/O’Day rivalry marks the first usage of Jose’s now famous catchphrases “you’ll have to ask_____(player/manager/front office member/reporter) about that, not me”, and “I couldn’t care less what ____(opposing player/manager) thinks.&#8221;</p>
<p><b>Mike Wright – Norfolk Tides</b></p>
<p>The newest addition to the list is Mike Wright, the <span style="text-decoration: line-through">Orioles’ rookie</span> Norfolk Tides pitcher who argued that Edwin Encarnacion is a less than stellar hitter, when stating “there’s a reason he’s hitting .240.” This was pronounced despite the fact that Edwin spent that very same Saturday afternoon grinding Wright and the rest of the O’s pitching staff into a fine pulp. With O&#8217;Day on the disabled list, perhaps Wright was trying to fill the antagonism void. Let’s hope for Wright’s sake that Oriole regulars Chris Davis, Adam Jones, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Flaherty, and Pedro Alvarez didn’t hear his disparaging comments about players who hit .240. I also can’t believe Mark Trumbo isn’t on that list.</p>
<p><b>John Farrell – Boston Red Sox</b></p>
<p>When someone breaks up with you, they usually have the tact not to mention they wanted to be with someone else all along. John Farrell didn’t give the Blue Jays and their fans the same courtesy. If leaving because you would rather manage a team with Dustin Pedroia on it wasn’t hard enough to swallow, Farrell made some <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/farrell-jays-approach-one-dimensional/">comments</a> that painted the Blue Jays’ front office in a less than positive light upon leaving. This was the very same front office that let him out of his contract to go and take the job he wanted all along. While most divorces involve the division of furniture, record collections or pets, this one saw the Blue Jays get Mike Aviles in the breakup. Be careful Boston, we wouldn’t want him to hurt you the same way he hurt us.</p>
<p><b>Goose Gossage – Wilton Grove Retirement Community</b></p>
<p>If you heard Gossage’s <a href="http://espn.go.com/mlb/story/_/id/14943065/goose-gossage-rips-jose-bautista-toronto-blue-jays-nerds-ruining-baseball">rant</a> this winter, the one in which he calls Jose Bautista a “f&#8212;ing disgrace,&#8221; you were probably concerned for a man who had wandered away from his seniors tour just long enough to voice his displeasure with how the youths of today are ruining baseball. Jose Bautista knew as much, responding only that he was not going to get into it with him. Gossage was quickly reunited with his tour group and promptly offered a job in the Diamondbacks’ front office under Dave Stewart.</p>
<p><b>Kansas City Royals – Yordano Ventura</b></p>
<p>The stupidest thing about the Jays’ feud with Yordano Ventura is that it was born out of a game that he wasn’t even playing. After the Jays and Royals cleared benches on August 3<sup>rd</sup> of 2015, Ventura sent and then deleted a very critical tweet directed at Jose Bautista. Then, in the ALCS, he got bent out of sorts when Troy Tulowitzki asked for time too close to when Hurricane V wanted to deliver his next pitch. Ventura proceeded to stare Tulo down in little response. <a href="http://www.kansascity.com/sports/spt-columns-blogs/for-petes-sake/article82483682.html">This was not Ventura’s first or last altercation</a> with an opposing player or team. There’s an old expression that may be applicable here: If you run into an a—hole in the morning, you run into an a—hole. If you run into a—holes all day, maybe you’re the a—hole? After supposedly apologizing to Bautista about his comments, there have been <a href="http://bluejaysnation.com/2016/6/8/yordano-ventura-openly-talked-about-hitting-jose-bautista-is-an-idiot">reports</a> about his intentions to hit Jose Bautista the next time he faces him; proving that he has learned absolutely nothing.</p>
<p><b>Adam Dunn – Retired Because he Doesn&#8217;t Like Baseball</b></p>
<p>You know, this one just might be on Toronto. Well, General Manager J.P. Ricciardi more specifically. Ricciardi famously called out Adam Dunn for “not even liking baseball all that much” &#8211; the 2008 equivalent of calling someone ‘low energy.&#8217; Dunn responded by calling Ricciardi a clown, hilariously confirming with reporters that they could use the word clown if they liked. Sure, Adam Dunn is built more like Little John than your prototypical baseball player, having what my dad would describe as a ‘big middle,’ but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t care about baseball. Even a staunch Jays’ supporter like me would say J.P. was perhaps a little out of line on this one.</p>
<p>Since the Blue Jays emerged as a playoff and World Series contender over the past two years, the bad blood between Toronto and the rest of baseball has increased substantially. As annoying as it can be to hear yet another example of someone having a mostly made up problem with your favorite team, take solace in the fact that the Jays are good enough to take their revenge by winning games, and (hopefully) not throwing at people.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Buying A Bullpen: How Do The Jays Compare?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/19/buying-a-bullpen-how-do-the-jays-compare/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Apr 2016 10:15:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bullpen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kansas City Royals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[New York Yankees]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Payroll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1128</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s a common refrain of the sabermetrically inclined that you shouldn&#8217;t spend money on bullpens. It&#8217;s easy to see why this is: a pitcher that can throw 180-200 innings in a season (a starter) will usually be more valuable than someone whose peak is around 70 innings (a reliever). Even accounting for leverage and situations, the best [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s a common refrain of the sabermetrically inclined that you shouldn&#8217;t spend money on bullpens. It&#8217;s easy to see why this is: a pitcher that can throw 180-200 innings in a season (a starter) will usually be more valuable than someone whose peak is around 70 innings (a reliever). Even accounting for leverage and situations, the best reliever in baseball by WARP (the Yankees&#8217; <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49775">Dellin Betances</a>) isn&#8217;t as valuable as someone like<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=5034"> R.A. Dickey</a>, a player <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/22/how-we-can-appreciate-reliable-starter-r-a-dickey/">whose public perception doesn&#8217;t necessarily line up with his value</a>. And Betances&#8217; number is less than a third as much as the best starter in baseball by WARP, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49786">Clayton Kershaw</a>.</p>
<p>We did see a bit of a different trend in the last offseason, however. With the Royals having made the World Series two years in a row, and having had excellent bullpens both seasons, other teams set out to form their own fantastic relief cores. Boston traded for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70812">Carson Smith</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58350">Craig Kimbrel</a>. The Yankees acquired <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53014">Aroldis Chapman</a>, even with <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49617">Andrew Miller</a> and the aforementioned Betances already in tow. Even the Blue Jays got in on the action a bit, acquiring deposed Nationals closer <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59345">Drew Storen</a>. All sports tend to copy success, and the Royals having success with their bullpen meant teams were going to try and emulate that.</p>
<p>In building these better bullpens, however, teams had to commit resources to doing so, in prospects and/or cash. In that vein, for money and value, let&#8217;s see how the Blue Jays compare to some of their competitors. We&#8217;re going to stack them up against the Red Sox, Yankees, Rays, and Royals- three divisional competitors, and the team that set the gold standard for bullpens. For the purposes of this comparison, we&#8217;re using the 2016 PECOTA projections, and the 50th percentile of those projections- in plain terms, the average outcome. Innings were rounded to the nearest third of an inning, and $ per WARP rounded to two digits after the million. I generally went with the team&#8217;s current bullpen, and limited it to seven players, though there are some exceptions that will be explained when we go through the teams.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-jays.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1504" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-jays.png" alt="bullpen - jays" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> For the Jays, I did not include the DFA&#8217;d <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=50390">Arnold Leon</a>, and did included the recently injured <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=48448">Franklin Morales</a> over the less recently injured <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60619">Aaron Loup</a> or call up <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58768">Pat Venditte.</a> That&#8217;s an educated guess as to who spends the most time on the roster, given Venditte having options, and Loup&#8217;s struggles last season. It should also be noted that the Jays could cut Morales and save three quarters of his salary, which they may do if he&#8217;s below replacement, as his projections suggest. The projections also include a handful of starts for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=47279">Jesse Chavez</a>, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31534">Gavin Floyd</a>, and Morales, which I would deem as probable, possible, and unlikely, in that order. Eagle-eyed watchers will note that Storen&#8217;s salary is lower than it&#8217;s actual number, because I accounted for the money that the Nationals sent over to cover part of his salary.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis:</strong> The Jays are spending <strong>$6.22 million per WARP </strong>on their bullpen, based on these projections. With the late inning trio of Osuna, Storen, and Cecil, most would say this is a fine bullpen. After an uneven season last year for the Jays&#8217; bullpen, there was a focus in the off-season in adding depth, and pitchers capable of starting games if needed. Storen was the flashy pickup, but Chavez and Floyd provide additional value with less fanfare. It&#8217;s interesting seeing how the value is distributed according to money, because Osuna, who makes the minimum, grades out the best pitcher. But let&#8217;s see how the Jays stack up against the rest here.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-yankees.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1508" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-yankees.png" alt="bullpen - yankees" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> Even though <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=53014">Aroldis Chapman</a> is not currently on the team due to his suspension, it would have been disingenuous to not include him in the Yankees&#8217; calculations, given his talent level. That meant dropping one of their current pitchers, so I kept <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68506">John Barbato</a> and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59239">Kirby Yates</a>, and dropped <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=66339">Luis Cessa</a>, because he has starts included in his projections, and skews the calculation the most. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=49832">Ivan Nova</a> also has starts included, but he&#8217;s more likely to stick with the team, given his history.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis: </strong>The Yankees have a top-heavy bullpen, but they, like the Jays, will probably get the most value from a young pitcher making the minimum. Betances&#8217; ascension has given them a fearsome late inning combination, one that will be bolstered further by the pending return of Chapman. With players like Betances and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67118">Chasen Shreve</a> (and the departed <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=60759">Adam Warren</a>), the Yankees have done a good job over the last couple years finding value to fill out their bullpen, to compliment the high priced assets. Though they&#8217;ve spent more money than the Jays, they certainly have more talent, so they grade out a little better at <strong>$5.76 million per WARP</strong>.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-red-sox.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1506" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-red-sox.png" alt="bullpen - red sox" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> Another one where we accounted for an injury, and this time, I put in <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70812">Carson Smith</a> over <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=55935">Tommy Layne</a>, who is currently on the roster. No one&#8217;s quite sure when Smith will come back, so this projection could be less optimistic than the results. PECOTA doesn&#8217;t differentiate a lot once you get past the top few here.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis:</strong> PECOTA seems more bearish than I would be on Boston&#8217;s bullpen, which seems to have reasonable depth at first glance. One suspects they don&#8217;t care for <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58350">Craig Kimbrel</a>&#8216;s move to the tougher American League East, or figure that <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=44014">Koji Uehara</a>&#8216;s age will slow him down at some point. Or perhaps this just reinforces the idea of relievers not making a ton of difference. The projections make the view of the Boston bullpen less flattering, as they&#8217;re spending <strong>$10.57 million per WARP</strong>. Given the struggles their relievers at points last season, the acquisitions of Kimbrel and Smith still made sense for a team that sees themselves as contenders.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-rays.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1505" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-rays.png" alt="bullpen - rays" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> The Rays started the year without presumptive closer <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=65809">Brad Boxberger</a>. He&#8217;s in for this one, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/p/49130">Ryan Webb</a>, who is currently in the bullpen, is out, as he had the least optimistic projections of the current group for the Rays. Former Blue Jay <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=45525">Dana Eveland</a> checks in with six spot starts in his calculation.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis:</strong> The Rays&#8217; opening day budget was under $70 million for their entire roster, so it&#8217;s unsurprising that their bullpen is a who&#8217;s who of &#8220;who&#8217;s that?&#8221; And while they certainly did an excellent job of saving money, as their efficiency gives them a rosy <strong>$1.75 million spent per WARP</strong>, there are questions that come with the course they&#8217;ve chosen. There&#8217;s a lower ceiling for performance with their lesser talent, and there will be questions as to defined roles until Boxberger returns. But on a team that&#8217;s always concerned about their budget, this is the best approach, even if they lack the upside of the others teams in the division.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-royals.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-1507" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/04/bullpen-royals.png" alt="bullpen - royals" width="666" height="218" /></a></p>
<p><strong>Notes:</strong> I desperately wanted to find a way to include current Royal <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=31803">Chien-Ming Wang</a> in this group, but with <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=59266">Mike Minor</a> scheduled to return in May, I assume Wang&#8217;s the one that will bite the dust. <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56197">Danny Duffy</a> has fifteen starts in his projections, which inflate his numbers.</p>
<p><strong>Analysis:</strong> We notice a couple things right away about the Royals&#8217; collection of arms. First, that they intentionally spent money on everyone, with not a single player making the minimum. Secondly, there are a lot of former/failed starters in this list, with only <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56449">Kevin Herrera</a> having been a reliever for his entire major league career. I&#8217;m surprised by the results here, though. The numbers have the Royals as the least cost-effective of our sample group, spending <strong>$10.78 million per WARP </strong>on their bullpen. It should be noted though that PECOTA hasn&#8217;t liked the Royals in the past, either. The loss of an effective <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=57708">Greg Holland</a> hurts them, though their track record and high-end talent will probably make this group better than the numbers suggest.</p>
<p>Even with these four teams, we have seen several different ways of building a bullpen. From a statistical standpoint, it may not make a lot of difference- the spread between the worst relief corps to the best is only 2.3 WARP. Each team had a clear philosophy in who they acquired, and how much they paid for them. The Rays clip coupons and cut corners wherever they can, taking home trophies for being efficient and saving money, but are rarely able to crack the glass ceiling in a cutthroat division. Would an improved bullpen help that? Probably not as much as a bigger budget overall. So saving money makes sense.</p>
<p>The Yankees and Red Sox throw their financial weight around, supplementing any bargains and fixing problems whenever they come up. The Yankees didn&#8217;t really need Aroldis Chapman, but saw a bargain (for unpleasant reasons) and decided that another elite arm would help them get back to the top of the A.L. East. Boston&#8217;s pen struggled with depth at times in 2015, with only Koji Uehara and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=58984">Junichi Tazawa</a> as reliable options to finish off games. Their offseason saw them add two crucial pieces to their bullpen puzzle.</p>
<p>The reigning champion Royals are the trend-setters, and have built their own philosophy, with a clear belief in proven performers and defined roles in a bullpen. Various projection systems have never been able to quantify that value, but the Royals don&#8217;t worry about what the projections say. They have the results. No amount of regression or bad luck will take away the two American League pennants, or the World Series banner that hangs in Kauffman Stadium. If insanity is doing the same thing and expecting a different outcome, perhaps the Royals are entirely sane to keep doing something that has been working until it doesn&#8217;t.</p>
<p>As for the Jays, they grade out fine, looking at their competitors, sitting smack-dab in the middle of these teams in how they&#8217;ve spent. They&#8217;ve acquired the arms in a variety of ways: free agency (Floyd, Morales), trades(Chavez, Storen), a Rule 5 pick (Biagini) and their own homegrown talent (Cecil, Osuna). Their bullpen has had rough games so far, and like any bullpen, will have a few more blown games before the season&#8217;s out, but the talent is there, and they weren&#8217;t afraid to add when the opportunity to acquire Drew Storen came up. They&#8217;ve got more depth this year at AAA, which they&#8217;ve already had to tap into because of injuries (hello, Pat Venditte), and more arms ready when someone else gets dinged up.</p>
<p>For now, the Jays should have confidence in their bullpen &#8211; both how it will perform for the rest of the season, and the process by which it was assembled. They probably won&#8217;t be the best relievers in baseball, but the Jays don&#8217;t need them to be the best. They just need it to be fine, and it can definitely be that.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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