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	<title>Toronto &#187; josh thole</title>
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		<title>Being Optimistic about Jarrod Saltalamacchia</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/23/being-optimistic-about-jarrod-saltalamacchia/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/23/being-optimistic-about-jarrod-saltalamacchia/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 23 Feb 2017 15:03:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jarrod Saltalamacchia]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9113</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays have a fantastic starting catcher in Russell Martin. He&#8217;s everything you want in a catcher: a solid hitter, a good defender, and someone who can handle a pitching staff well. Even in the first stages of a potential decline, he&#8217;s the best the Jays have ever had at the position and one [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays have a fantastic starting catcher in Russell Martin. He&#8217;s everything you want in a catcher: a solid hitter, a good defender, and someone who can handle a pitching staff well. Even in the <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/13/russell-martin-going-forward/">first stages of a potential decline</a>, he&#8217;s the best the Jays have ever had at the position and one of the best backstops in baseball.</p>
<p>After a stretch where Martin caught R.A. Dickey in the first season of his Jays contract, the usual backup catcher to Martin has been Josh Thole, who served as Dickey&#8217;s personal catcher. This was a source of some frustration for Jays fans, as Thole wasn&#8217;t very good. He was the opposite of Martin: He couldn&#8217;t seem to hit or defend.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a good thing for a backup catcher to have at least one bankable skill. Maybe they&#8217;re a good defender, a catch-and-throw guy. Maybe they&#8217;re someone with occasional pop and the ability to make good contact, as old friend Dioner Navarro flashed occasionally. Thole&#8217;s one skill was jumping on the Dickey knuckleball grenade, but a personal catcher for a back-end starter who isn&#8217;t skilled with the bat or the glove doesn&#8217;t do a whole lot for the roster.</p>
<p>The biggest name to come out of the Jays&#8217; search for a backup catcher <em>this</em> offseason was Jarrod Saltalamacchia, and that&#8217;s not just referring to the length of his actual name. Saltalamacchia was a familiar name to Jays fans, as he was the starting catcher for the Red Sox from 2011-2013. That was also the most successful three year stretch of his career. His time in the majors since has been less notable, as a disastrous stretch with the Marlins demoted him to backup catcher territory. After a dismal year and a half in Miami, he showed a flash of life in Arizona before a bad 2016 with the Detroit Tigers.</p>
<p>Even in that forgettable 2016, Saltalamacchia still had one modest skill: power. 12 homers in 292 at-bats might not seem like much, but after four years of watching Josh Thole&#8217;s pea-shooter at-bats, even a mild threat to go yard might have Jays fans more comfortable with Martin resting occasionally. Thole&#8217;s highest slugging percentage with the Jays was .278. .278! That&#8217;s not his batting average! How is that even possible?</p>
<p>Saltalamacchia&#8217;s defense doesn&#8217;t grade out especially well, proving <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Nichols_Law_Of_Catcher_Defense">Nichol&#8217;s Law of Catcher Defense</a> true in at least one instance, though Thole dragged that law through the mud by being bad at both. And if you don&#8217;t like strikeouts, he&#8217;s not going to be much help there either: <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/h_landing.php?player=457454&amp;time=month&amp;startDate=03/31/2016&amp;endDate=02/22/2017&amp;s_type=2">Brooks Baseball</a> has his likelihood to swing and miss anywhere between &#8220;high&#8221; and &#8220;disastrously high&#8221;, depending on your preferred flavor of pitch. He&#8217;s gonna flail a lot to sell out for that power.</p>
<p>We could compare slash lines, but after taking a shot at Thole&#8217;s slugging percentage before, we know how that&#8217;ll play out. Even Saltalamacchia&#8217;s avert-your-eyes-bad .171/.284/.346 represents an improvement over what the Jays got from Thole and the returning Navarro last season. And there&#8217;s always the chance Saltalamacchia finds his groove for a while again, as he did with Arizona for a time in 2015. That&#8217;s where that past success can play into what we might expect: he did it before! He can do it again, right?</p>
<p>No amount of improvement from the backup catcher will hide the fact that if Russell Martin is down for an extended period of time, the Jays are in trouble. This is why they didn&#8217;t invest heavily in the position before, and why they ended up with Saltalamacchia this offseason. For one out of every five days, the gains will be marginal, but the perception is much better with a proven commodity in place. There is some benefit to the newfound ability to pick and choose when Martin rests, as opposed to &#8220;Dickey is starting,&#8221; but the modest investment the front office made will pay off more in the optics than on the field. And that&#8217;s perfectly fine.</p>
<p>Is Jarrod Saltalamacchia a good backup catcher? Probably. The Jays got a recognizable name with prior success without paying out the nose, hoping that his more recent time in Miami and Detroit isn&#8217;t completely indicative of his actual skill. And if he is in decline, it&#8217;s not that much of a loss, playing one or two days a week at a position where the bar for performance isn&#8217;t set terribly high. He&#8217;ll wander into a meatball, hit a dinger, and we&#8217;ll count our lucky stars that a bench player contributed something substantial. After the last few years of dreading every day off for the starting catcher, the Jays will take what they can get.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The True Legacies of R.A. Dickey and Josh Thole</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/03/the-true-legacies-of-r-a-dickey-and-josh-thole/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/03/the-true-legacies-of-r-a-dickey-and-josh-thole/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Nov 2016 10:00:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Season That Was]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alex anthopoulos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7759</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO – The good, the bad, the ugly, and the great. That’s how Josh Thole described his time in Toronto over the past four years. It was a fitting description for the tumultuous times he and batterymate R.A. Dickey shared while in a Blue Jays uniform. The duo entered their time in Toronto with a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TORONTO – The good, the bad, the ugly, and the great.</p>
<p>That’s how Josh Thole described his time in Toronto over the past four years. It was a fitting description for the tumultuous times he and batterymate R.A. Dickey shared while in a Blue Jays uniform.</p>
<p>The duo entered their time in Toronto with a precipitous amount of fanfare and expectations thanks in large part to Dickey entering as the reigning NL Cy Young winner. They had a lot of ups and downs in the middle, and things ended quietly as they watched their teammates perform in the postseason without them.</p>
<p>Yet over those four years the landscape of Toronto Blue Jays baseball altered drastically; blue once again became a dominant colour on the uniform, Blue Jays fever swept the nation, an MVP became a household name, attendance skyrocketed and so did the wins. Both of those men were at the heart of it all.</p>
<p>Dickey started 130 games for the Jays over that stretch and threw 824 innings, and Thole played in 170 games, most of which came with Dickey on the mound. At this juncture, with their Toronto careers almost certainly over, their stats are a moot point. But what you’d find is a slightly above average innings-eater pitcher and a below average specialty catcher, the combination of which got a lot of scorn from Blue Jays fans and active social media users. But what fans also got were two trips to the postseason with two legitimate chances to advance to the World Series that fell just short.</p>
<p>“I take away in particular the last two years,” Dickey said reminiscing about his time in Toronto. “I mean, some of us have been together for four years so we have seen the process of how this thing has happened and getting to be in the playoffs in two of the last four years is a pretty remarkable feat in this day and age with how good these teams are.</p>
<p>“To be 50 percent of the time we go to the League Championship Series, that’s pretty good. Of course, you’re not satisfied, but it’s certainly a hard thing to do, so I really appreciate that.”</p>
<p>With the club achieving heights it hadn’t even sniffed in 21 years, the team’s success is the greatest argument for the duo despite what their personal stats might ultimately suggest. Even with neither making the 2016 postseason roster, without their accomplishments in the regular season the team simply doesn’t get to play beyond game 162 in either of the past two seasons.</p>
<blockquote><p>“To be 50 percent of the time we go to the League Championship Series, that’s pretty good. Of course, you’re not satisfied, but it’s certainly a hard thing to do, so I really appreciate that.” &#8211; R.A. Dickey</p></blockquote>
<p>However, the battery&#8217;s on-field performance is secondary to what their presence really meant to the Jays. Acquired from the New York Mets on December 17, 2012 by then-general manager Alex Anthopoulos for two elite prospects, Dickey and Thole were part of drastic shift in philosophy that aimed towards winning now. That move, along with the blockbuster Miami Marlins trade a month prior, influenced Blue Jays baseball more than any other and led directly to where the club stands today.</p>
<p>The first season with Dickey as the team’s presumptuous ace was underwhelming on the field, with the club finishing last in its division and with only a solitary win above than the previous year&#8217;s total. What paved the greatest dividends towards the win-now mode wasn’t the on-field product so much as attendance and a growing TV audience. Thanks in large part to the pre-season hype from those two trades, the Rogers Centre eclipsed 2.5 million paying fans in 2013 for the first time since 1997.</p>
<p>In the four years that Dickey and Thole were in Toronto the Jays averaged over 34,256 fans in attendance for home games, over 11,000 more per night than the average attendance in the four years prior to their arrival. In addition, this past season saw the team set a new record with over one million people per game tuning in to Blue Jays baseball on television.</p>
<p>With attendance at an unprecedented high for modern Rogers Centre times, and a surplus of money flowing in, Anthopoulos was allowed to stay aggressive on the trade market to keep the team competitive. Russell Martin, Josh Donaldson, Devon Travis, David Price, and Troy Tulowtizki followed, with today’s core of the club forming in large part because Anthopoulos was allowed to shed prospects for win-now talent &#8211; Something that wouldn’t have happened in the same aggressive and bold manner had the off-season of 2012 never happened.</p>
<p>Ultimately, those moves in the 2012 off-season precipitated the moves that followed, leading to the two most compelling seasons in recent Jays history.</p>
<p>“Special,” said Thole about his time in a Jays uniform over the last four years after being eliminated from the postseason by Cleveland in Game 5 of the ALCS. “Been through the good, the bad, the ugly, and the great. These last two years have been something you dream of. I’m not even on the playoff roster, but just to be part of it all season, it’s unbelievable.”</p>
<p>Now that their tenure in Toronto is likely over, and after experiencing two deep postseason runs with the Jays and a Cy Young campaign with the Mets, the ever intertwined duo are most likely headed for very different futures after seven years as batterymates that included 164 games together.</p>
<blockquote><p>“Been through the good, the bad, the ugly, and the great. These last two years have been something you dream of.&#8221; &#8211; Josh Thole</p></blockquote>
<p>“I mean, seven years together. Who knows what’s going to happen,” Thole said about their future. “He’s getting towards the end here. So, who knows. Who knows what’s going to happen. It’s unbelievable. Again, it’s something that you never dream of and it’s happened. I’ve been, you’re right, attached to him.”</p>
<p>“It’s hard to imagine a team without him because I’ve been with him seven years now,” Dickey said of Thole. “I consider him a friend before anything.</p>
<p>“He’s caught more of my starts than anyone in my whole career. I would venture to say he’s caught more of my starts than any catcher has caught somebody’s starts anywhere, regardless if they’re a knuckleballer or not. So, it’s been a special bond that we’ve had. We’ve been through a lot of ups and downs together. It’s been fun. I’ll miss it if it doesn’t continue.”</p>
<p>Without each other it’s unclear if there’s a place for them in Major League Baseball. One thing’s for sure though, the last two magical runs to the postseason don’t happen without them or the trade that preceded their arrival. Their on field performance may not have had the impact anyone envisioned when they were acquired, but their impact off the field and on management is unmistakable.</p>
<p>For that alone Jays fans should be thankful.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 2, Mariners 0; Happ Shuts Out Seattle For Six, Salvages Series Finale</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/24/recap-blue-jays-2-mariners-0-happ-shuts-out-seattle-for-six-salvages-series-finale/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/24/recap-blue-jays-2-mariners-0-happ-shuts-out-seattle-for-six-salvages-series-finale/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 24 Jul 2016 19:38:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Adam Lind]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Brett Cecil]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4830</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays and Mariners had a pitcher&#8217;s duel early on in the game, with J.A. Happ and Wade Miley tossing up zeroes in the first few innings. The Jays broke through against Miley in the fourth inning and added another in the sixth on the way to a 2-0 victory. Though the Jays have [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays and Mariners had a pitcher&#8217;s duel early on in the game, with J.A. Happ and Wade Miley tossing up zeroes in the first few innings. The Jays broke through against Miley in the fourth inning and added another in the sixth on the way to a 2-0 victory.</p>
<p>Though the Jays have been successful against Miley previously in the left-hander&#8217;s career, they weren&#8217;t able to manage much against him on this day, as he scattered four hits and two walks over his six innings of work. He did allow a home run to Edwin Encarnacion in the fourth inning and a manufactured run in the sixth, as Josh Thole scored when Josh Donaldson grounded into a double play. The Mariners bullpen kept it clean after that, but it didn&#8217;t matter terribly, as a day after scoring 14 runs, they were unable to mount any offense at all.</p>
<p>J.A. Happ may have thrown six shutout innings, but he was not without his jams, walking four hitters and hitting a batter, even though he allowed just one hit. The most trouble he had was a walk to Chris Ianetta followed by him hitting Robinson Cano in the top of the fourth inning, but he struck out Nelson Cruz and Dae-Ho Lee and got Kyle Seager to pop out to quell the threat. Happ seemed to struggle with his control at times, but in the end, got the result he wanted. The Jays bullpen came in and locked down the last three innings, much to the relief of a fanbase used to them making things a little more interesting. There was a pinch-hit appearance from former Jay Adam Lind in the ninth inning, though Jays closer Roberto Osuna struck him out.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The game was scoreless through four innings,  before Encarnacion&#8217;s home run off Miley broke the shutout. His solo home run to deep centre field increased the Jays&#8217; chances to win by 13.9 percentage points, and gave them a lead they would not relinquish.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Mariners threatened in several innings against Happ. Mike Zunino walked to open up the third inning, and was promptly caught stealing. Happ threw a pitch that bounced well in front of the plate, Thole got to it, but Zunino had already taken off for second. Thole&#8217;s throw easily beat the slow footed Mariners catcher, snuffing out a chance for a rally. This lowered their chances to win by 6.6 percentage points. Zunino getting caught stealing was followed by a single, which would have moved him to second if he was still on base.</p>
<h3>Figuring Out The Bullpen</h3>
<p>Drew Storen being designated for assignment was a mild surprise to those following the Jays. Not based on his performance, but his contract, as the Jays will have to pay around $2 million to make him disappear. It is a signal that the club has not been satisfied with the effort from their bullpen so far, and that some roles are up for grabs. This game had the Jays using their preferred 7-8-9 guys, with Brett Cecil, Jason Grilli, and Roberto Osuna finishing the game cleanly. Cecil having a clean inning was a very encouraging sign, given his struggles of late. The Jays will need him and others to step up down the stretch.</p>
<h3>Thole Holds the Fort</h3>
<p>Generally, a Josh Thole start has meant one deep, dark hole in the Jays&#8217; lineup, a bottomless pit of despair from which there is no escape. Thole&#8217;s last few games have seen him contributing positively on offense. In Thole&#8217;s last five starts, he&#8217;s 5 for 14 with two doubles, two walks, and five RBIs. Given his abysmal .159/.250/.216 line coming into the game, anything Thole gives them with the bat while Russ Martin sits is a bonus.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Tomorrow has the San Diego Padres making a rare visit to the Rogers Centre, in a game that starts at 7:07 PM ET. The Jays send Aaron Sanchez (10-1, 2.87 ERA) to the mound. The Padres will counter with Colin Rea (5-4, 5.01 ERA). Following the All-Star game, Sanchez has continued to pitch well, even as Jays fans wonder if and when he&#8217;ll be sent to the bullpen. Rea is coming off a loss to the Cardinals where he went six innings and allowed four runs. This is the third interleague game he&#8217;s started this season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Sousa-USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Backup Plan: Examining the Jays&#8217; Bench</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/08/backup-plan-examining-the-jays-bench/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/08/backup-plan-examining-the-jays-bench/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jun 2016 10:48:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3434</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays&#8217; bench isn&#8217;t great. To anyone who&#8217;s watched the team the last couple of years, this is not a shock. With a lot of money invested in high-end players, the Jays have generally bargain-hunted and worked the edges, taking chances on Quad-A players and filling the empty spaces from within rather than spend [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; bench isn&#8217;t great. To anyone who&#8217;s watched the team the last couple of years, this is not a shock. With a lot of money invested in high-end players, the Jays have generally bargain-hunted and worked the edges, taking chances on Quad-A players and filling the empty spaces from within rather than spend a lot of effort to fill out the roster.</p>
<p>The suspension to Chris Colabello and injuries to Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki threw a wrench into the Jays&#8217; plans for this season, but injuries and ineffectiveness from players are a part of life in baseball. We certainly saw that last season, with Michael Saunders, Jose Bautista, Travis and Tulowitzki among the offensive regulars who missed time after getting hurt. It was those injuries that led to the Jays getting players like Ben Revere, Cliff Pennington, and Darwin Barney to fortify the roster.</p>
<p>Though the Jays have been quiet on the trade front so far, there&#8217;s a lot of season left, and if they&#8217;re close at the deadline they may well look to improve their reserves. With roughly a third of this season gone, let&#8217;s examine the Jays&#8217; current bench situation, and see how they can improve it.</p>
<h3>The Numbers</h3>
<p>Teams usually need at least three backups for defensive purposes: a catcher, an infielder, and an outfielder. Given that Darwin Barney replicates and eclipses a lot of Ryan Goins&#8217; skills, one could easily argue that they could ship out Goins (or Barney) and not lose much. But is replacing Goins with a pitcher an improvement? Given the Jays&#8217; struggles in the bullpen, perhaps. But the Jays&#8217; starting staff is also fifth in baseball in innings pitched. The problem with the bullpen (which we&#8217;re not going to spend time on here) is not quantity, but quality. They don&#8217;t need more options- they need better options. So we won&#8217;t explore a three-man bench.</p>
<p>What about five guys? Do the Jays need more players off the bench, to add additional skills and versatility? They have a lot of premium offensive players in their everyday lineup: Jose Bautista, Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Troy Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin are (or have the reputations as) great hitters, and will be in the lineup almost every day. Devon Travis and Michael Saunders are solid regulars, who will probably get some days off. That&#8217;s seven out of nine spots right there, leaving Kevin Pillar and Justin Smoak. Smoak is hitting very well so far this season, and without Colabello, has no platoon partner at first base any more. So there&#8217;s no platoons, and we have only Pillar as an obvious pinch-hitting opportunity. With that in mind, another bench player probably wouldn&#8217;t be that useful, given the assumed depth in the lineup. Since we&#8217;re sticking with four bench guys, who should we change out?</p>
<h3>The Options</h3>
<p>Thole&#8217;s spot, much to the collective chagrin of Jays fans, is probably safe. It&#8217;s unlikely that the Jays will change Dickey&#8217;s catcher in the middle of the season, and cut Thole loose without an airtight solution. The fact is there aren&#8217;t any ready replacements out there. The internal options aren&#8217;t enticing, and have never caught the knuckleball. The only other knuckleball catchers in baseball are in Boston, and intra-division trades during the season are rare. Though Blake Swihart, who caught knuckler Steven Wright earlier in the season, is now playing left field, he&#8217;s still relatively young, and the Jays aren&#8217;t going to give up what Boston would want for him. We&#8217;ll have to grit our teeth and bear with Thole, for the days Dickey catches. At least R.A. has been better since the calendar turned to May. If there&#8217;s a injury, I&#8217;d expect the Jays to go get someone who could passably resemble a regular catcher.</p>
<p>Carrera&#8217;s spot is interesting, and would be a more natural fit for a right-handed bat, given that he usually subs for the left-handed hitting Michael Saunders. Jays fans perhaps pine for Red Sox outfielder Chris Young, who would be an ideal fit as a fourth-outfielder type, but he&#8217;s much too expensive for Toronto. Getting Darell Ceciliani and Dominic Brown in the off-season was good insulation against the nightmares of last season happening again (Remember the Goins-Carrera-Valencia outfield?), but they too are left-handed. Ceciliani outplayed Carrera and Brown in the spring, but his having an option and the team&#8217;s familiarity with Carrera (for better and worse) made his demotion to Buffalo inevitable, even with Ceciliani being a better defensive outfielder. Carrera has been used as a defensive replacement for Saunders, and as a pinch-runner, but he&#8217;s not very good at either of those things, he&#8217;s just the best of what the Jays have. Given that Carrera has torn the cover off the ball so far, they probably won&#8217;t change his spot now, but it&#8217;s certainly worth monitoring going forward.</p>
<p>So we come to the infielders, Goins and Barney. Both accomplished defensively, both below average hitters (usually), with Goins having a couple more defensive positions in his history, and Barney having a longer track record of success. As we discussed previously, this is where we could look at making the change, since there&#8217;s not a lot of sense in keeping both of them once everyone&#8217;s healthy. Both of them being good defensively is fine, but there isn&#8217;t really a need for a regular defensive replacement. Tulowitzki, Smoak, and Donaldson are all fantastic defenders, and Travis isn&#8217;t a liability. You only really need one of them, for when Tulowitzki, Travis, or Donaldson needs a day off. Barney has a longer track record, and has hit much better this year, so the Jays should look to keep him over Goins.</p>
<p>But who, or what, do they replace Goins with? The best option would be someone who could pinch-hit, as that is the obvious gap in the Jays&#8217; bench right now. Though the Jays have a lot of premium offensive players, Kevin Pillar is not one of those, and he should be pinch-hit for in crucial situations. And on days where one of those elite players is sitting, someone like Thole or Barney is in the lineup, and represents another opportunity for a better bat to take a crucial late inning appearance. Last year, the Jays had Chris Colabello, Danny Valencia, or Justin Smoak as potential power threats in the late innings. This year, they haven&#8217;t really had that, which has been noticeable with the offense performing below expectations. They could have kept Jimmy Paredes after getting him from Baltimore, which would have avoided this problem, as he had an obvious potential role as a late-inning bat. None of the current options are appealing as a hitter, as Barney and Carrera probably aren&#8217;t as dangerous as their numbers suggest.</p>
<p>Internally, the Jays have some interesting names at AAA Buffalo: players like Andy Burns, Jesus Montero, or Dominic Brown would be potential late inning bats. Brown is a left-hander (like Carrera), and hasn&#8217;t hit well at Buffalo this year, so he&#8217;s probably not an option. Burns was a popular name at the end of spring training, has hit lefties capably this year (a .765 OPS against them at Buffalo), and would offer some defensively flexibility, playing second, third, and the corner outfield spots. He didn&#8217;t get much of a chance with the Jays earlier this season, so maybe it&#8217;s time to give him another look. Montero would slide into the Colabello role nicely, as someone who could play first base and offer some power potential. He is another lefty masher, though he has hit both sides well in the minors this season. A frustrating note is that the Jays have had potential solutions to this problem in-house, and let them go free: Danny Valencia last season (he would have been very useful during the offensive swoon early on), and Paredes several days ago.</p>
<h3>The Verdict</h3>
<p>The lack of a dangerous reserve bat is something that has hurt them at times this year with how many close games they&#8217;ve been in, though not as much as the offense under-performing as a unit. Swapping Goins for someone a little more dangerous with the stick would help them some, as Goins doesn&#8217;t offer anything unique in the construction of the team. Once Tulowitzki comes back, I&#8217;d expect them to send Goins down for someone like Jesus Montero or Andy Burns. My preference would be Burns for the positional versatility, though Montero does have some of that post-prospect shine still on him, and there&#8217;s always the chance he figures it out and becomes something more, like Colabello did last season. Hopefully the Jays pull the trigger on that and give John Gibbons a little more ammunition, both in filling out a lineup card and those close, late games that they seem to keep having.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Why Josh Thole Makes Some Sense For The Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/why-josh-thole-makes-some-sense-for-the-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/why-josh-thole-makes-some-sense-for-the-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 10 May 2016 13:46:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dioner Navarro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2108</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s beyond difficult to defend the performance of Josh Thole so far this year. He has one job, and has barely been doing that. Even so, talk among Jays fans of upgrading at backup catcher in the off-season was, to my mind, a waste of breath; as long as R.A. Dickey remained on the roster, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s beyond difficult to defend the performance of <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=46730">Josh Thole</a> so far this year. He has one job, and has barely been doing that. Even so, talk among Jays fans of upgrading at backup catcher in the off-season was, to my mind, a waste of breath; as long as R.A. Dickey remained on the roster, so too was Thole assured of a spot as his caddy. Even with Dickey having had his typically putrid April, he&#8217;s unlikely to go anywhere. So Jays fans will likely have to suffer through Thole&#8217;s pop-gun hitting and spotty receiving for the remainder of the year, all because of his history with Dickey and his role as someone who can (allegedly) catch the knuckleball.</p>
<p>We don&#8217;t necessarily need to be happy with Thole as the backup. Again, he has been bad by most measurements this year. But when we break it down, we can find several reasons as to why the Jays were mostly quiet on the backup catcher front this off-season, and why they probably will be during the regular season, barring a disastrous injury or three.</p>
<h3>Russell Martin is Really Good</h3>
<p>Over his career, Russell Martin has been a great catcher &#8211; a rare one who is great both offensively <em>and</em> defensively (even if his hitting so far this season has left a lot to be desired). Prior to the season, PECOTA projected him to be the best catcher in the AL by WARP this year. This is why the Jays signed him to a rich five-year contract prior to last season: To be great. And he was in 2015, finishing with a great-for-a-catcher .240/.329/.458 slash line, 23 home runs, and 77 RBIs.</p>
<p>Martin also continues to be an excellent game-caller. There was some concern coming into this season about Marco Estrada, who mostly pitched to Dioner Navarro last year, and whether he would keep that up with Martin behind the plate. Estrada hasn&#8217;t missed a beat, and that&#8217;s a credit to both he and Martin, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/10/marco-estrada-is-using-the-change-in-more-ways-than-one/" target="_blank">as Joshua Howsam explains</a>.</p>
<p>If Martin gets hurt, Thole can&#8217;t replace him. But no one could, reasonably. It&#8217;s the same with a lot of the Jays&#8217; star studded roster: Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Troy Tulowitzki, Marcus Stroman, and others. You wouldn&#8217;t really replace any of them, either. You <em>could</em> argue that Martin is probably more valuable than any of them, because of his position. At least if Bautista goes down, Dalton Pompey would excite the Canadian flag bearers for a few weeks.</p>
<p>Because of his contract, the Jays want to maximize what they get out of Martin. He ended up playing in 129 games last season, the most he has played since 2012. That also meant having him try to catch R.A. Dickey as they attempted to free themselves from their obligation to have Thole on the major league roster. Unfortunately, Martin and the Jays discovered that catching the knuckleball wasn&#8217;t as easy as it looked.</p>
<h3>Catching a Knuckleball Is Hard</h3>
<p>Martin became a passable receiver for Dickey last year, but it took a toll on him. Kyle Matte (who now writes for BP Toronto) wrote a fantastic piece on Capital Jays about how <a href="https://capitaljays.com/2015/11/04/the-knuckleball-effect-on-russell-martin/">catching Dickey made Martin much worse on days Dickey started</a>. As Matte laid out, he basically turned into- wait for it- Josh Thole. So, rather than have your really good catcher be bad, why not just have the bad catcher in there, taking the lumps and preserving the health and effectiveness of your star?</p>
<p>The Jays faced Red Sox knuckleballer Steven Wright twice early in the season, and fans got another team&#8217;s take on catching the trick pitch. It was interesting to note that he had different catchers each time: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70407">Blake Swihart</a> for the first outing, and <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=36585">Ryan Hanigan</a> for the second. Neither seemed to have as much trouble as Thole has this year. This begs the obvious question: CAN anyone catch the knuckleball? Or is there something special about Dickey&#8217;s that makes it more difficult?</p>
<p>We need only go back to opening day of 2013, watching J.P. Arencibia flail away behind the dish, to see the potential problems with bringing in a new face to catch the knuckler. It&#8217;s a testament to Martin&#8217;s ability that he got to the point where we didn&#8217;t really notice any struggles he had catching the pitch. But if Martin could be trained up- and Swihart and Hanigan can figure out Wright- could the Jays get someone else?</p>
<h3>Most Backup Catchers are Bad</h3>
<p>Consider potential knuckleball catchers Swihart and Hanigan: They combined for 0.8 WARP in 118 combined games for the Red Sox last season. Would the Jays be immediately better with either one of them? Probably not. The two of them didn&#8217;t even make a win&#8217;s difference over the course of two-thirds of a season. Backing up Russell Martin (who, for what it&#8217;s worth, had 4.4 WARP in his 2015 season), they&#8217;re not going to play enough to budge the needle, based on that pace.</p>
<p>We could also look at the aforementioned Navarro, who started in 2014 and was an overpaid backup last season (mostly because the Jays couldn&#8217;t trade him). Though he developed good chemistry with Estrada and Mark Buehrle, he wasn&#8217;t good statistically, actually ending up below replacement by WARP during his time in Toronto. Should the Jays have kept him? Not for what it would have cost. He wanted to start, and sure wasn&#8217;t going to do that in Toronto. With $82 million invested in their starter, why waste money on Navarro when he didn&#8217;t so much as break even?</p>
<p>There are internal options as well, in former prospects Tony Sanchez and A.J. Jimenez, toiling away at AAA Buffalo. They represent hope, and the potential for something more than Josh Thole. But the simplest explanation works here: there&#8217;s a reason neither has stuck on a major league roster. Sanchez, a former high pick, couldn&#8217;t get a major league deal. The Jays thought so much of Jimenez that he was exiled from the 40 man roster prior to the start of the season, and not a single other team claimed him. Maybe either of them would be better than Thole. But while familiarity with Thole has bred contempt with fans, there was probably some comfort in that familiarity to the current front office. They know what Thole is by now, and the certainty of the role Thole would have on this team. It wasn&#8217;t worth change for the sake of change to them.</p>
<p>When we look around the league, we can see there aren&#8217;t a lot of a good backup catchers out there. When they do exist, it&#8217;s often because the starting catcher isn&#8217;t good, or they themselves are on track to starting eventually. For a team like the Jays, who have an elite starting catcher, the backup isn&#8217;t a priority. Their goals should be to use Martin as much as they reasonably can, while also protecting the $82 million investment they have in him. In Thole, they have someone who accomplishes both of those things. He gives Martin a scheduled day off, removes the burden of catching the most difficult pitch, and doesn&#8217;t make enough money for them to be worried.</p>
<p>Looking at this, we can see why the Jays continue to use Josh Thole, even as we fans clamor for someone, anyone else, on the nights when he flails away both at and behind the plate. The Jays having a knuckleballer is an additional problem (especially when he&#8217;s pitching poorly), but also a solution in that it gives Martin a logical, consistent break. As much as the Jays want to use Martin, catchers can&#8217;t play every day. No, Thole isn&#8217;t good. But most backups aren&#8217;t good. And whether the backup is Thole or someone else, he&#8217;s not going to be nearly as good as Martin. That&#8217;s the situation the Jays are in, and for one day out of five, we can probably live with the drop off.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY SPORTS</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Recap: Orioles 4, Blue Jays 3; 10 Innings Ends With A Thole Miss</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/20/orioles-4-blue-jays-3-10-innings-ends-with-a-thole-miss/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 21 Apr 2016 03:04:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Molly Tissenbaum]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1803</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays came up short in their first extra inning contest this year, despite ample opportunities to score. R.A Dickey took the hill tonight looking to extend the four game win streak against the Orioles&#8217; Ubaldo Jimenez. The Blue Jays threatened early when Michael Saunders singled to center, and then went first to third [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays came up short in their first extra inning contest this year, despite ample opportunities to score. R.A Dickey took the hill tonight looking to extend the four game win streak against the Orioles&#8217; Ubaldo Jimenez. The Blue Jays threatened early when Michael Saunders singled to center, and then went first to third on Jose Bautista&#8217;s single into left field. The Jays came up empty after Encarnacion lined into a double play to end the inning. Dickey&#8217;s April struggles continued to plague him tonight, as the O&#8217;s put 3 runs on the board in the first. Dickey managed to keep the O&#8217;s at bay, and in the 7th he handed the ball over to Gavin Floyd. Finally after loading the bases in the 10th inning against Joe Biagini, the Orioles won on a bases loaded passed ball charged to Josh Thole.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the bottom of the 10th, Joe Biagini came into the ballgame to replace Drew Storen, and got the first two outs on a ground ball and a strike out. He then gave up a single to Caleb Joseph, an infield single to Joey Rickards, and walked Manny Machado. Pitching to Adam Jones, a low fastball got away from Josh Thole and Josephs scored (.341 WPA) on the passed ball to end the game.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the top of the 10th inning, the Blue Jays got a rally going when Troy Tulowitzki walked. Justin Smoak came in to pinch hit for Chris Colabello, and singled to right field, putting runners on first and second with one out. Ryan Goins then grounded into a 4-6-3 double play (-.219 WPA) to end the inning.</p>
<h3>Leaving Ducks on the Pond</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; prolific offense continued to struggle against the O&#8217;s, striking out 9 times. The Jays were a concerning 2 for 12 with runners in scoring position, with Encarnacion tallying the only RBI with 2 outs. In the ballgame tonight the Blue Jays left 10 runners on base, while the Orioles only left 3. It&#8217;s hard to win when the hits aren&#8217;t coming at the right time.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays and Orioles will finish up the series tomorrow night at 7:05, before they head back to Rogers Center for a weekend series against Oakland. The Blue Jays will send Marco Estrada to the mound to face Chris Tillman in the series deciding game.</p>
<p><em>Featured Image: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Rays 3; Dickey Dances and Saunders Smashes</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/04/recap-blue-jays-5-rays-3-dickey-dances-and-saunders-smashes/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Apr 2016 02:19:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays. Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=1089</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Didn&#8217;t we just do this? The Blue Jays won another 5-3 game, though they took a bit of a different path to get there today. Dingers, umpires, knuckleballs, and the Blue Jays going to the bullpen early rather than the Rays. R.A. Dickey picked up the win, going the minimum five innings but getting the job [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Didn&#8217;t we just do this? The Blue Jays won another 5-3 game, though they took a bit of a different path to get there today. Dingers, umpires, knuckleballs, and the Blue Jays going to the bullpen early rather than the Rays. R.A. Dickey picked up the win, going the minimum five innings but getting the job done. Drew Smyly notched the loss, allowing five runs over six and two-thirds innings, with most of the damage against him coming on &#8211; what else? &#8211; home runs. However, they weren&#8217;t all from who you&#8217;d expect. We also got the first look at new Jays relieves Jesse Chavez and Drew Storen, who appeared in relief of R.A. Dickey. Though both teams threatened in the later frames, neither was able to budge the score, and Roberto Osuna notched his second save of the season.</p>
<p>Kevin Pillar had his first great catch of the year, running headfirst into the wall in the seventh inning:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Here&#39;s a GIF of that spectacular grab Kevin Pillar made in the seventh inning. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> <a href="https://t.co/qBCFAMWU4p">pic.twitter.com/qBCFAMWU4p</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Gregor Chisholm (@gregorMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/gregorMLB/status/717166670503100416">April 5, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<h3>TOP PLAY OF THE GAME BY WPA</h3>
<p>With the Jays leading 2-1 in the fourth inning and a runner on second base, Michael Saunders hit a home run to centerfield, just beyond a leaping Kevin Kiermaier. That boosted the Blue Jays&#8217; chances to win by 19.3%. It was an encouraging sign from a player who logged all of nine games with the Jays last season, and hit exactly zero home runs.</p>
<h3>BOTTOM PLAY OF THE GAME BY WPA</h3>
<p>There were several candidates from the losing side here, with the Rays getting runners on base in several innings. It was in the eighth against Drew Storen that they saw their best chance, with two runners on base and Hank Conger coming to the plate. After running the count full to 3-2, Storen buckled down and struck out Conger with a fastball.  This lowered the Rays&#8217; chances to win by 8.6%, ending the inning with no runners crossing the plate.</p>
<h3>JOSH THOLE AND MICHAEL SAUNDERS SUPPLY SOME POWER</h3>
<p>With lefthander Drew Smyly on the mound for the Rays, one could be forgiven for assuming it would be one of the Jays&#8217; many right-handed sluggers who would tee off. While Josh Donaldson did have his first dinger of the season, it was lefty swingers Josh Thole and Michael Saunders who got the party started. Thole hit a solo blast just over the wall in right in the third inning, and Saunders hit a two run shot in the fourth. For Saunders, it was his first home run as a Blue Jay, and for Thole, it was his first home run since August 21, 2013 (<a href="https://twitter.com/gregorMLB/status/717145791161319425">that tidbit</a> courtesy of MLB.com&#8217;s Gregor Chisholm on Twitter).</p>
<h3>LAZ DIAZ GETS HIS CLOSE UP</h3>
<p>The umpires managed to be at the center of two controversial plays during the game. The first was the aforementioned Thole home run in the third inning, where it was initially ruled a double due to fan interference. The Jays challenged, and after review, it was ruled a home run. The other one was a very strange play, when Chris Colabello flied out in foul territory to Steven Souza in the fourth inning. First base umpire Tim Timmons initially ruled it no catch, and Laz Diaz, manning second base, said it was a catch. After a review that took over five minutes, it was determined that Souza caught the ball, and Colabello was called out.</p>
<p>For those curious about why the replay took so long, this is why:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">There are 2 challenges. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> challenging if fair, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Rays?src=hash">#Rays</a> challenging call that it was dropped</p>
<p>&mdash; Marc Topkin (@TBTimes_Rays) <a href="https://twitter.com/TBTimes_Rays/status/717143229758459906">April 5, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<h3>R.A. DICKEY GETS INTO AND OUT OF JAMS</h3>
<p>It seemed like Dickey was in trouble a lot of the night, but did a good job minimizing the damage. With two runners in scoring position in the first, neither scored, and though he allowed a home run to Steven Souza, there were no runners on base at the time. When runners did get on base, Dickey did a good job getting harmless outs that prevented the Rays from getting several extra runs. After allowing Jennings to reach in the 6th, he was pulled from the game, and finished with three earned runs over 5+ innings of work.</p>
<h3>TREND TO WATCH</h3>
<p>The season is very young, but Jose Bautista has had two misplays in two games in right field. After dropping a fly ball yesterday, he allowed Kevin Kiermaier to advance to second on a single tonight, making the mistake of throwing behind the speedy Rays center fielder. Alert fans noticed a drop off in Bautista&#8217;s defense near the end of last year between declining range and the occasional dropped routine fly. Bautista certainly isn&#8217;t paid to be an elite defender, but it would be better if he wasn&#8217;t a noticeable liability. Hopefully he cleans up the mistakes.</p>
<h3>UP NEXT</h3>
<p>The Jays look to continue exorcising their Tropicana demons with another win. Tomorrow&#8217;s tilt features Aaron Sanchez (7-6, 3.22 ERA in 2015) squaring off against Jake Odorizzi (9-9, 3.35). Same time as tonight, 7:10 PM eastern, at one of the two stadiums that still feature artificial turf. Or the two teams in the AL East whose city name starts with T. Or some other arbitrary comparison to make them seem similar. Baseball is back, friends! Enjoy it.</p>
<p><em>Lead photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Why We Should Better Appreciate R.A. Dickey</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/22/how-we-can-appreciate-reliable-starter-r-a-dickey/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Mar 2016 10:09:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[josh thole]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Starting Pitching]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays have a great many decisions to make at the end of the 2016 season, with several free agents on the roster. While most of the focus has been on the two sluggers, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, one player, who arrived with such fanfare, carries very little debate: R.A. Dickey, knuckleballer, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays have a great many decisions to make at the end of the 2016 season, with several free agents on the roster. While most of the focus has been on the two sluggers, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, one player, <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/40669276/">who arrived with such fanfare</a>, carries very little debate: R.A. Dickey, knuckleballer, and now the team&#8217;s elder statesman with playoff passenger LaTroy Hawkins having sidled off into retirement. Barring a seismic shift in his or the team&#8217;s performance, the Blue Jays will let Dickey walk at the end of the year. This will make some people happy. While that&#8217;s understandable, Dickey still did yeoman&#8217;s work over his time with the Jays.</p>
<p>Dickey was one of the crown jewels of the Jays&#8217; flashy 2012/13 off-season, the &#8220;ace&#8221; that this club hadn&#8217;t had since trading Roy Halladay to the Phillies. He was a knuckleballer, sure, but he&#8217;d supposedly figured out the unpredictable trick pitch. He threw it hard and had befuddled hitters over three fantastic seasons with the Mets. He was old, sure, but he was a knuckleballer! He didn&#8217;t have the miles on his arm from years of throwing high heat. And, he was smart. <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Wherever-Wind-Up-Authenticity-Knuckleball/dp/0452299012">He wrote a book</a>. He seemed to embrace the team. With Dickey and the other new faces, it was easy for fans to be excited about the 2013 Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>The 2013 season need not be revisited, of course. It was bad. Dickey struggled immediately with his new team, putting up an ERA that was a full 1.50 runs higher than his 2012 with New York. He had the highest expectations, and clearly failed to deliever. Of course, he wasn&#8217;t alone in failing to meet expectations; Josh Johnson, Melky Cabrera, and Jose Reyes all had their own unique setbacks which contributed to the team&#8217;s lackluster performance. It was Dickey though, who kept going out there every five days during that garbage heap of a season, who was viewed as the biggest disappointment, and he still carries some of that perception to this day.</p>
<p>While the initial frustration with Dickey had much to do with the unrealistic expectations placed upon him, he is now resented for Not Being The Guys For Whom They Traded Him. Travis d&#8217;Arnaud and Noah Syndergaard are now mainstays on a Mets team that made the World Series, and look to be anchors for years going forward. At the time, it was acknowledged to be a high price for Dickey, and as those players developed, that price tag was higher than even we could have anticipated. Such is the risk of trading prospects. For every R.A. Dickey trade, there is a <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2014/11/blue-jays-to-acquire-josh-donaldson-from-athletics-for-brett-lawrie-others.html">Josh Donaldson trade</a>. Time will tell as to whether the bounties paid for <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/07/blue-jays-to-acquire-david-price.html">David Price</a> or <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/139167952/rockies-trade-troy-tulowitzki-to-blue-jays">Troy Tulowitzki</a> end up being anything worthwhile, but judging trades with the benefit of hindsight is not the point.</p>
<p>There are several legitimate reasons that the Blue Jays can and should move on from Dickey at the end of the year. He will be 42 years old by the end of the season, and knuckleballer or not, that&#8217;s old for a baseball player. His presence on the roster also necessitates the Jays carrying the aggressively mediocre Josh Thole as the backup catcher, instead being able to carry a useful, traditional backup. Allocating two roster spots for one starter is tough for any progressive team to stomach.</p>
<p>All of that being said, when we review Dickey&#8217;s time with the Jays, we can see that he&#8217;s actually been a reliable pitcher on the whole. &#8220;Reliable&#8221; is a strange word to use in connection with Dickey. As we&#8217;ve mentioned, the knuckleball is hard to predict. Our memories also betray us. We recall the initial struggles in 2013, the long stretches of seasons where it never seemed like Dickey got past the sixth inning, or the seemingly endless occasions when he walked a lot of hitters. We remember the bad start to 2015, which had some wondering if the Jays would even pick up his option, or his last, unfortunate playoff start against Kansas City, pulled in the second inning as the Jays&#8217; season hung in the balance.</p>
<p>It can definitely be tough to get past gut feelings and reactions to see what value Dickey has brought to the team. However, when we throwing out wins and losses, there are a couple easy yardsticks we can use to see just how useful Dickey has been: innings and starts.</p>
<p>The benchmark that players and fans like to use for a great starting pitcher is 200 innings a season. It&#8217;s a nice round number, and with quick math, we can say that&#8217;s 33 starts (a number Dickey matched or exceeded all three years) at a hair over six innings each. In that three year span, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=sta&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=600&amp;type=8&amp;season=2015&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2013&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=8,d">seventeen pitchers have thrown an average of 200 innings a season</a>. So that&#8217;s good for Dickey, demonstrating that he&#8217;s a workhorse in a game that doesn&#8217;t have many. However, of those seventeen pitchers, Dickey is dead last in fWAR, coming out to 5.4 total over those three years. That&#8217;s worse, suggesting a home more towards the back-end of the rotation.</p>
<p>From 2013 to 2015, R.A. Dickey made 101 starts, tied for the most in baseball with James Shields, and threw 654.2 innings, the fifth-most in baseball. Certainly the conventional wisdom of &#8220;he gives us innings&#8221; has been mostly dismissed; the innings don&#8217;t amount to much if they&#8217;re not effective. But in that three-year stretch, Dickey notched a 3.95 ERA, which is fine, but certainly no ace; among the top 20 in innings over that three-year period, Dickey&#8217;s ERA is third-worst. While some would argue for FIP as a more effective measurement, the stat is notoriously unreliable for knuckleballers, so ERA will win out here. His DRA, which uses a little more context, fall into the same ranking as the ERA.</p>
<p>Now let&#8217;s look at some of those numbers in the context of the Blue Jays, who have struggled for great starting pitching for a while now. We know that Dickey and Mark Buehrle have been mainstays in the Jays&#8217; rotation over the past three seasons, but there has been a rotating cast of characters around them.  200 innings is our barometer for reliability for one season, but even if we chop that in half the numbers are striking: only <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=sta&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=100&amp;type=8&amp;season=2015&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2013&amp;ind=0&amp;team=14&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0">seven players have thrown more than 100 innings as a starter for the Blue Jays over the past three seasons</a>. One of those seven is Esmil Rogers, <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/fantasy/baseball/news/esmil-rogers-signs-one-year-contract-with-korean-team/">currently attempting to ply his trade in Korea</a>. That speaks to the difficulty the Jays have had acquiring and developing starting pitching.</p>
<p>This is where Dickey shows his value. Can you imagine the damage to the pen without his 215 innings per season? Even assuming they didn&#8217;t pay the ransom to get Dickey, it&#8217;s unlikely the Jays would have been able to replace those 200+ innings per year internally. They were already banking on a lot of young pitchers, imagine if they had to fill <em>another</em> spot. They would have had to throw resources- cash, or prospects, or players- to get that player. So while it would be foolish to argue that Dickey worked out the way they hoped &#8211; he has been no Cy Young winner &#8211;  but we can  definitely say that he has filled what would have otherwise been a gaping hole.</p>
<p>All that said, the Blue Jays will probably be in a better position after this season to move on from Dickey. The development of Stroman and Sanchez, along with the acquisitions of J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada have given the team the kind of insulation they lacked for most of Dickey&#8217;s tenure. Maybe Drew Hutchison rebounds from a disappointing 2015, and prospect Connor Greene is knocking on the door by September. If these things happen, the it will be much easier for the new front office to send Dickey and his personal catcher packing at the end of this season.</p>
<p>Even as the team attempts to plan for life without Dickey, we can look back and see that Dickey played a valuable role in the team&#8217;s recent history. If the Jays win the World Series this year, maybe it makes it all worth it. All the banking on the &#8220;<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/dickey-knuckleball-a-capricious-animal/">capricious animal</a>&#8221; of a pitch that made watching the Jays a white-knuckle experience during his starts, wondering if this is the one that makes the hitter look silly, or the one the hitter puts into the seats. Living through the agony of 2013, and experiencing the joy of 2015. All of it, forgiven.</p>
<p>The team went through a lot of changes over those last three years, and Dickey was here for all of it, continuing to go out every five days as players came and went around him. Though Dickey wasn&#8217;t the ace everyone hoped he would be, he was a dependable starter for a team that didn&#8217;t have many, and someone who may prove more difficult to replace than we realize.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Peter Llewellyn-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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