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	<title>Toronto &#187; Josh Donaldson</title>
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		<title>Free Agency Not Looking Like Freedom: A Cool Winter’s Effect on a Donaldson Extension</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jan 2018 11:22:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The fourth Collective Bargaining Agreement, signed between MLB Ownership and the Players Association on July 12, 1976, introduced the radical notion of free agency into baseball. It represented a monumental leap in the direction of players’ rights in a sport where, even to this day, their employment options are startlingly restricted. To wit: Players have [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The fourth Collective Bargaining Agreement, signed between MLB Ownership and the Players Association on July 12, 1976, introduced the radical notion of free agency into baseball. It represented a monumental leap in the direction of players’ rights in a sport where, even to this day, their employment options are startlingly restricted. To wit: Players have little to no control over whom they are drafted by; can potentially be kept in the minor leagues as long as five seasons before <em>potentially </em>becoming available via the Rule 5 draft to another team they can’t select; and, once they finally reach the highest level, find themselves under control for three years at baseball’s equivalent of minimum wage, and for another three years after that at fractions of their true market worth.</p>
<p>If the length of team control wasn’t already challenging enough, even free agency has lost a lot of its luster in recent years as front offices have smartened up to the realities of the decline phase of a player’s career. Around the turn of this decade it became popular for teams to leverage those cost-controlled years into lengthy extensions at heavy discounts, forcing players to decide whether to bet on themselves remaining healthy and productive for each of the next five or six years, or to settle for an adequate lump sum of guaranteed cash today. In many cases the players have erred on the side of caution, locking themselves to an organization through their prime years only to find other teams unwilling to pay for their past production once they reach free agency around the age of 30.</p>
<p>The growing trepidation with free agency has been fully realized this offseason, as signings are well below the last five years and have caused some to <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37107/rubbing-mud-evidence-price-fixing-far/" target="_blank">raise the possibility of price fixing</a> or <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/heres-baseballs-economic-system-might-broken-224638354.html" target="_blank">collusion</a>. To compare signings across years, I broke down the offseason into 21 weeks, beginning with October 10th through October 16th and ending with February 27th through March 5th, at which point Spring Training has fully commenced. Figure 1 below was produced using these weekly buckets and the annual <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-free-agents.shtml" target="_blank">signing tracker available on Baseball Reference</a>.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/All-Free-Agent-Signings-2013-2018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14938" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/All-Free-Agent-Signings-2013-2018.png" alt="All Free Agent Signings 2013-2018" width="632" height="544" /></a></p>
<p>The 2013 offseason covers the signing period leading up to the 2013 season, and so and so forth through to 2018 (current). The data for 2013 to 2017 trends consistently, with 2017 potentially a foreboding sign of what was to come. The five-year average for free agent signings over the first 14 weeks of the offseason (ending January 15th) was 262. Here in 2018, we’ve seen just 148 free agents signed by January 15th, nearly 44 percent below that average. The previous five-year low by this date came in 2017 with 230 signings.</p>
<p>To hit the five-year average of 364 free agent signings by March 5th, we would need to average 4.4 signings per day from January 16th on, which is nearly triple that of the rate we’ve observed this offseason (1.5 per day).</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/Top-50-Free-Agent-Signings-2013-2018.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14939" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/Top-50-Free-Agent-Signings-2013-2018.png" alt="Top 50 Free Agent Signings 2013-2018" width="632" height="544" /></a></p>
<p>It’s not just the peripheral, mediocre, and older talent that have felt the cold shoulder from ownership this winter. The players widely considered to be the top of the class, i.e. those identified annually by <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/2017-18-top-50-mlb-free-agents-with-predictions.html" target="_blank">MLB Trade Rumors as the Top 50 free agents</a>, have suffered as much as the rest. Just 20 of the top 50 free agents for 2018 have signed as of January 15th, which is equally far below the five-year average of 34 by that date. Furthermore, most of those 20 were relievers who signed <a href="https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/37107/rubbing-mud-evidence-price-fixing-far/" target="_blank">alarmingly well-scaling deals</a>.</p>
<p>Just one of MLBTR’s top 11 has signed, and unsurprisingly, it’s a reliever: Wade Davis for three years and $52 million. The fifth-ranked potential free agent, Masahiro Tanaka, chose not to opt-out of the three years and $67 million remaining on his deal. And while many were skeptical of his decision at the time, in hindsight, you have to wonder if his agent, Casey Close, might have sensed that something was afoot. Yu Darvish, J.D. Martinez, Eric Hosmer, Jake Arrieta, Mike Moustakas, Lorenzo Cain, Lance Lynn, Greg Holland, and Alex Cobb all still find themselves without a home.</p>
<p>Over the last five years, the longest we&#8217;ve seen it take for two of MLBTR’s Top 10 free agents to sign was December 9th, 2017, when Dexter Fowler joined Yoenis Cespedes in having a deal. In 2013, 2014, 2015, and 2016, it was November 29th, December 7th, November 18th, and December 4th, respectively. We’re six weeks past the previous worst and still waiting for someone on the above list to join Davis.</p>
<p>All of this is particularly noteworthy given the impending free agency of Josh Donaldson. Barring the unforeseen, Donaldson will be a member of inarguably the most impressive free agent class in recent memory. Among position players he’ll be joined at the top by Bryce Harper and Manny Machado, and not far behind that trio are Charlie Blackmon, Daniel Murphy, and Andrew McCutchen. On the pitching side, both Clayton Kershaw and David Price have the ability to opt out of their existing deals, and will be joined by the untethered Dallas Keuchel, Craig Kimbrel, Andrew Miller, and Zach Britton. That’s just the <em>premium</em> talent: The middle of the class is equally deep and unprecedentedly impressive, featuring Brian Dozier, Elvis Andrus, A.J. Pollock, D.J. LeMahieu, Gio Gonzalez, Patrick Corbin, and Cody Allen among many, many others. Seriously, <a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/84604/looking-ahead-to-baseballs-2019-free-agent-bonanza" target="_blank">just look at the list</a>.</p>
<p>One could argue, and ownership certainly would were a collusion lawsuit to arise in the future, that teams are simply saving their money this offseason with their eyes (and chequebooks) set on next winter. But the current climate of penny-pinching and the depth of the class next winter could seriously hamper Donaldson’s ability to find the deal he seeks. He’s unequivocally among the most talented of his peers, but his 2019 age (33) will be working against him with Harper (26) and Machado (26) looking to push their way into the Alex Rodriguez and Giancarlo Stanton echelon of contracts. Donaldson is hyper-competitive and will want to play for a contender for the remainder of his career, but even the biggest spenders have a finite amount of money at their disposal in a given winter. If the Yankees, Dodgers, and friends splurge more than one billion dollars combined on Harper, Machado, and Kershaw, they might be hesitant to make a $100-150 million commitment to Donaldson as their second expenditure.</p>
<p>It’s why everyone, including both <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/donaldson-says-wants-remain-blue-jays-long-term/" target="_blank">Donaldson</a> and <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-president-mark-shapiro-want-josh-donaldson/" target="_blank">Mark Shapiro</a> themselves, seems to realize that Toronto was, is, and continues to be his best fit. Even with his 2018 salary already settled, the suddenly tight purse strings across baseball and the continued unemployment of J.D. Martinez and Eric Hosmer in mid-January could serve as a catalyst to reignite discussions on a longer agreement. It would take some flexibility from the Rogers ownership group, particularly in the short term with Martin and Tulowitzki still under contract, but they can definitely make the dollars and years work on a fair and realistic contract.</p>
<p>Last week the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2018/01/09/the-jays-have-the-money-for-josh-donaldson-and-still-they-wait.html" target="_blank">Toronto Star’s Richard Griffin proposed</a> the four-year, $110 million dollar contract signed by Yoenis Cespedes last winter as the framework for a Donaldson extension. With younger players struggling to find long-term deals now, and even younger players likely to command the attention next year, four years and an immense bucket of cash for Josh Donaldson today sounds like an excellent compromise.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>It Should Be About the Memories for the Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/27/it-should-be-about-the-memories-for-the-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/27/it-should-be-about-the-memories-for-the-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Oct 2017 14:23:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13974</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m enrolled in a class this semester in which we&#8217;re reading modernist novels, and for somebody who doesn&#8217;t identify as much of a literature nerd, I&#8217;ve felt extremely in over my head for the better part of the past two months. I only decided to start studying English on top of my science courses last spring, so this is [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m enrolled in a class this semester in which we&#8217;re reading modernist novels, and for somebody who doesn&#8217;t identify as much of a literature nerd, I&#8217;ve felt extremely in over my head for the better part of the past two months. I only decided to start studying English on top of my science courses last spring, so this is my first class doing this type of work and I&#8217;ve had a hard time adjusting to it. I&#8217;m just not very good at reading a text and analyzing it &#8211; I think my brain works better that way with numbers.</p>
<p>We started reading a text in this class a few weeks ago that I absolutely detested for its complete lack of a scintillating plot and sentences that run on for entire paragraphs: <em>In Search of Lost Time</em> by Marcel Proust. Although my professor insisted that this is a popular book and people enjoy it, I refused to believe her on the grounds that it took all of my might to read more than a few pages at a time without falling asleep or becoming angry at how different it is from anything I have ever read before in my life. Every class I&#8217;d come in and throughout the discussions the professor would promise me that I&#8217;d eventually fall in love with Proust&#8217;s seemingly endless sentences and his plotless book.</p>
<p>She was right. Somehow, despite being devoid of all plot, Proust&#8217;s writing is intoxicating because it takes random details and reflects on them. He takes objects from his (fictional) everyday life and uses them as triggers to remember incidents and times in his life as a child. The book is a masterpiece of memory, easily the most relatable piece of writing I have ever read, as it seems like every topic he delves into can somehow be tied into every person&#8217;s life in one way or another.</p>
<p>How does this have anything to do with baseball, and specifically about the Blue Jays? We all watch this sport with only one purpose in mind: to make memories. We watch it so twenty years down the line we can say that we remember that time when Jose Bautista did this or Marcus Stroman did that. This makes the coming off-season an especially interesting one for the Blue Jays because they are at a crossroads of sorts.</p>
<p>If the Blue Jays were anything in 2017, it was old. They got injured so much, because they were old. Being baseball&#8217;s oldest team meant that injuries would be more common. That fact leads many people to hope for the club to sell their assets this winter and try again to compete in a few years. If you read social media sites, you&#8217;ll see plenty of people clamouring for an Astros or Cubs-style rebuild.</p>
<p>While the front office may have to take a different outlook, as a viewer, that notion is ridiculous. Any talk of that sort should not even be considered a plausible option. The path forward for the Blue Jays should be to just go for it again in 2018, not to give up before the season even starts. Nobody remembers a bad team and nobody watches baseball to cheer for a bad team. We cheer because we want to be excited by the product on the field. We cheer because we want memories that we can enjoy for a lifetime. Baseball is about memories.</p>
<p>With that said, there is only one way the Blue Jays should operate this winter. Full speed ahead. Josh Donaldson shouldn&#8217;t be traded, because there is no realistic scenario in which trading arguably the best third baseman in baseball makes the club better in 2018. You may not have noticed because he missed almost two months due to injury, but Donaldson had another excellent season in 2017. It was the first time since he became a star that Donaldson missed significant time due to injury and just because something happens once doesn&#8217;t mean it will happen again. I think it&#8217;s safer to say Donaldson will be as healthy as he was from 2013-2016 in 2018, than to say he will repeat his injury woes from 2017. And because of that, there is really no case where Donaldson provides more value to the Blue Jays as a member of another club than he does as a regular playing everyday next year for Toronto.</p>
<p>However, Donaldson can&#8217;t push this team to the playoffs alone, so keeping him only makes sense if management is committed to building a not-terrible team around him. As I <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/29/the-minnesota-twins-and-the-path-forward-for-the-toronto-blue-jays/" target="_blank">wrote about last month</a>, that doesn&#8217;t require much, rather it may just be about creating a playable floor, allowing the team to not give hundreds of at-bats to players that are costing them wins every time they take the field.</p>
<p>When it comes down to it, even if the Blue Jays go for it and fail miserably, everybody will remember that they tried. The 2013 season might have been one of the most disappointing seasons as a Blue Jays fan, but it was still so memorable because they tried to win, and that&#8217;s all that really matters. Like a Proustian sentence, the baseball season is seemingly endless, but what gets you through it is that you&#8217;re reading about memories &#8211; and making memories of your own. Getting through the exhausting baseball season requires the same thing, and if the Blue Jays want to make 2018 tolerable, it&#8217;s going to need to start next month, with a plan of building, not a plan of waiving the white flag.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Season That Was: Exaggerated, Oversold, and Bound to Disappoint</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/17/the-season-that-was-exaggerated-oversold-and-bound-to-disappoint/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/17/the-season-that-was-exaggerated-oversold-and-bound-to-disappoint/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Oct 2017 11:07:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[2017 Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13664</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Many years ago, when I was just entering high school, I took a business class. The teacher, let&#8217;s call him Mr. Stewart, was a quirky fellow &#8211; and quite honestly not that great of a teacher &#8211; but on the first day of class he told us something that he said we&#8217;d remember for the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Many years ago, when I was just entering high school, I took a business class. The teacher, let&#8217;s call him Mr. Stewart, was a quirky fellow &#8211; and quite honestly not that great of a teacher &#8211; but on the first day of class he told us something that he said we&#8217;d remember for the rest of our lives: the happiness formula. He wrote it on the board.</p>
<p>Results &#8211; Expectations = Level of Happiness</p>
<p>It seemed too simple to care about, silly even. He then shared with us a seemingly sillier example:</p>
<p>&#8220;If a friend asks to borrow $10 from you and you expect that  $10 back at some point, but never get it, you&#8217;ll surely be unhappy&#8221;</p>
<p>0 &#8211; 10 = -10 → very unhappy</p>
<p>&#8220;If a friend asks to borrow $10 from you and you oblige out of the goodness of your heart, not expecting that you&#8217;ll receive the $10 back at some point, you&#8217;ll surely be content&#8221;</p>
<p>0 &#8211; 0 = 0 → throughly content</p>
<p>His example seemed poor. Why would one be content having lost $10? When I have experienced that very situation, however, I&#8217;ve found the happiness formula to ring true.</p>
<p>Now consider the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays. The team was coming off a season in which they&#8217;d won 89 games — their seventh highest total —and yet again come one stop short of the World Series. Pretty exciting stuff. The team then proceeded to lose their second best player, make Kendrys Morales their marquee signing, and have their already old starting roster age another year. The result? Projected records that put the Blue Jays well below the same projections in the previous season and even further below the team&#8217;s actual 2016 record.</p>
<p><a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20160404055301/http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/" target="_blank">Projected 2016 Record</a>: 86-76<br />
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2016-standings.shtml" target="_blank">Actual 2016 Record</a>: 89-73<br />
<a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20170402051004/http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/" target="_blank">Projected 2017 Record</a>: 81-81<br />
<a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/2017-standings.shtml" target="_blank">Actual 2017 Record</a>: 76-86</p>
<p>But because the team had surprised each of the last two seasons, the general consensus was that there was still a good shot at the playoffs again in the 2017. Statistically speaking, the consensus wasn&#8217;t wrong; any team projected to have at least as many wins as losses is bound to have 30 percent plus playoff odds. Though, compared to previous seasons, fans were no longer betting on a great season from a great team, they had to bet on a lucky season from an ok team. When that works, it&#8217;s incredibly exciting, but when it doesn&#8217;t it&#8217;s bound to disappoint. In either case expectations need to be set well in order to get a happy conclusion.</p>
<p>Results &#8211; Expectations = Level of Happiness</p>
<p>The problem, however, is that expectations weren&#8217;t set well at all, and we at BP Toronto were as big a culprit as any. In our preseason bold predictions piece, only one person seriously predicted a record at or below .500, and that was Bennett Brauer at 81-81, but we were by no means alone. TSN <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/al-east-preview-pitching-will-carry-blue-jays-1.694961">predicted that the Blue Jays would win the AL East title</a> on the backs of another successful year of pitching. Every one of <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/mlb-roundtable-award-predictions-world-series-picks-2017/" target="_blank">Sportsnet&#8217;s baseball analysts forecasted that Toronto would be in the playoffs</a>, and a few had the team as the AL East division winners. NBC Sports predicted that the team would <a href="http://mlb.nbcsports.com/2017/03/19/2017-preview-toronto-blue-jays/" target="_blank">place second in the AL East</a>. Even <a href="https://nesn.com/2017/03/al-east-preview-which-team-has-best-chance-to-knock-off-red-sox-in-2017/" target="_blank">Boston-based NESN thought the Blue Jays would be pressing the Red Sox for the division title</a>, noting that, &#8220;Toronto easily is the second-most complete team in the AL East, and if the Red Sox slack off at all, the Jays likely will be poised to snatch the top spot.&#8221; We set the expectations quite high, but we had no logical reason to.</p>
<p>This was prevalent beyond the beginning of the season as well. Even as the team dwindled in the standings in April, May, and June, there was still widespread thought that a push for the playoffs could come, which I <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/24/reframing-the-rest-of-the-blue-jays-season/" target="_blank">wrote about at the time</a>.</p>
<p>In reality, as we know, the team didn&#8217;t meet those expectations, but it was due to more than just bad luck, indicating that it was an issue with expectations, not with results. Yes, Aaron Sanchez&#8217;s nagging blisters didn&#8217;t help, and the Bringer of Rain&#8217;s injury induced drought was a disaster. But even if those two things hadn&#8217;t occurred it&#8217;s entirely possible that the Blue Jays would have found themselves without meaningful October baseball. In other words, there were a myriad of issues.</p>
<p>Per PECOTA&#8217;s projections, Toronto lost out on 1.5 WARP from Aaron Sanchez and 1.1 WARP from Josh Donaldson, which, even when generously extrapolated to additionally lost value from the two players&#8217; replacements, wouldn&#8217;t have been enough to make them competitive. The team wasn&#8217;t good enough. Of the Blue Jays&#8217; primary starters — the 25 players on the team&#8217;s roster on Opening Day plus Roberto Osuna — 14 underperformed their PECOTA projections while 12 over performed them.</p>
<p>If we accept that reality, then in order to take the team from &#8216;not good enough&#8217; to a playoff spot, one of two things would&#8217;ve had to have happened.</p>
<p><strong>1. Play Out All the Games and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NV6Rdv1a3I" target="_blank">Get Lucky</a>.</strong></p>
<p>Even though it&#8217;s most likely that a team plays <em>at</em> their true talent level, in any given season a team can play roughly ten games above or below their expected win total. The most recent and most prominent example of this is the 2016 Texas Rangers. They finished the 2016 season with 95 wins while only scoring eight more runs than they gave up over the full season. Had those runs been more evenly distributed, they would&#8217;ve missed the playoffs, but instead they won the division. However, as you can imagine, betting on this luck is an incredibly unsustainable strategy. When a team plays that high above their true talent level, it&#8217;s the outlier not the norm.</p>
<p><strong>2. Make Major Deadline Additions</strong></p>
<p>This was the 2015 Blue Jays&#8217; playoff strategy. In April, May, and June of 2015, Toronto&#8217;s playoff odds hovered between 10 and 20 percent, which is actually fairly similar to where the 2017 team was. At the 2015 deadline, however, the team added David Price, Troy Tulowitzki, and relief depth, thereby increasing the team&#8217;s true talent level. Given the prospect — and $ cost — of this path, this too is unsustainable.</p>
<p>Because you can&#8217;t make lucky happen and because the team is trying to create a sustainable contender, neither of those two things happened. As such, there were high expectations with no path to matching results.</p>
<p>Ok Results &#8211; High Expectations = A lot of unhappy Jays fans</p>
<p>Unless Toronto can convince Shoehei Otani to join MLB&#8217;s only Canadian team, the Blue Jays are likely to be in the same position again next year. These aren&#8217;t the dominant, AL East title winning Blue Jays of yesteryear and a year of aging without any top prospects ready to graduate to the major league level won&#8217;t help matters. <span style="font-size: 16px">I&#8217;m not going to tell you how you should carry out your fandom, but I will say that if we don&#8217;t all set our expectations more realistically in 2018, we&#8217;re in store for another disappointing season in </span><a style="font-size: 16px" href="https://bluejaysplus.wordpress.com/2013/12/04/unproductive-middle/" target="_blank">the unproductive middle</a><span style="font-size: 16px">. </span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 77: And Now our Watch is Ended</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/04/artificial-turf-wars-ep-77-and-now-our-watch-is-ended/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/04/artificial-turf-wars-ep-77-and-now-our-watch-is-ended/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 04 Oct 2017 10:34:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[mark shapiro]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13685</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Episode 77 Greg and Josh go over the final week of the season and the decisions and press conferences from the immediate aftermath. They discuss Jose Bautista&#8217;s final games and the declining of his option, Josh Donaldson&#8217;s desire to remain in Toronto, the early outlook for the upcoming offseason based on comments from Ross Atkins, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 77</strong></p>
<p>Greg and Josh go over the final week of the season and the decisions and press conferences from the immediate aftermath. They discuss Jose Bautista&#8217;s final games and the declining of his option, Josh Donaldson&#8217;s desire to remain in Toronto, the early outlook for the upcoming offseason based on comments from Ross Atkins, the murky future for Devon Travis, and the ballot goofiness from the Blue Jays team award voting. They also answer listener questions and give out two Do Overs, one to MLB and one the Giancarlo Stanton. </p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/031/show_10311991_2017_10_04_03_35_15.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/031/show_10311991_2017_10_04_03_35_15.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 76: AFL and a Fond Farewell</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/28/artificial-turf-wars-ep-76-afl-and-a-fond-farewell/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/28/artificial-turf-wars-ep-76-afl-and-a-fond-farewell/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Sep 2017 10:44:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[T.J. Zeuch]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13604</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Episode 76 2016 first round draft pick and Blue Jays prospect T.J. Zeuch stops by to discuss life leading up to the draft, how he picked his university, the nomadic lifestyle of a recent draftee, and prepping for the upcoming Arizona Fall League. Greg and Josh also go deep on the legacy and (likely) final [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 76</strong></p>
<p>2016 first round draft pick and Blue Jays prospect <a href="https://twitter.com/TJZeuch" target="_blank">T.J. Zeuch</a> stops by to discuss life leading up to the draft, how he picked his university, the nomadic lifestyle of a recent draftee, and prepping for the upcoming Arizona Fall League. Greg and Josh also go deep on the legacy and (likely) final home days for Jose Bautista, the unreal finish for Josh Donaldson, the Bautista-esque September from Teoscar Hernandez, and Marcus Stroman&#8217;s quest for 200 innings. Finally, they take listener questions and give out a Cliché of the Week and a Gold Star.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/029/show_10299843_2017_09_28_03_44_26.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/029/show_10299843_2017_09_28_03_44_26.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 69: On a Wing and a (Position) Player</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/09/artificial-turf-wars-ep-69-on-a-wing-and-a-position-player/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/09/artificial-turf-wars-ep-69-on-a-wing-and-a-position-player/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Aug 2017 09:45:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12871</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Episode 69 Greg and Josh break down the recent news and stories from Blue Jays land with discussions on Roberto Osuna&#8217;s struggles/odd pitch usage, Josh Donaldson and Marco Estrada&#8217;s returns to form, Kevin Pillar and Ryan Goins&#8217; mirror struggles/successes, a banged up rotation and its effects on the bullpen, and a helping hand from former [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 69</strong></p>
<p>Greg and Josh break down the recent news and stories from Blue Jays land with discussions on Roberto Osuna&#8217;s struggles/odd pitch usage, Josh Donaldson and Marco Estrada&#8217;s returns to form, Kevin Pillar and Ryan Goins&#8217; mirror struggles/successes, a banged up rotation and its effects on the bullpen, and a helping hand from former friend Francisco Liriano. They also answer a slew of listener questions, give a Do Over to the Texas Rangers broadcast, and hand out a Cliché of the Week. </p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/RangersPod/status/892839164755968002" target="_blank">The photo in this tweet</a> is the subject of this week&#8217;s Do Over</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/019/show_10192657_2017_08_09_04_23_14.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/019/show_10192657_2017_08_09_04_23_14.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Top 10 Blue Jays by Trade Deadline Value (No. 1 &#8211; 5)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/26/the-top-10-blue-jays-by-trade-deadline-value-5-1/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/26/the-top-10-blue-jays-by-trade-deadline-value-5-1/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Jul 2017 10:35:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Vladimir Guerrero]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12570</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is part two of the Blue Jays deadline 2017 top-ten trade value series. The introduction, as well as the tenth through sixth most valuable, went up at BP Toronto yesterday. As a brief recap before, your tenth to sixth most valuable Blue Jays trade assets: #10: RHP Joe Biagini #9: 2B Devon Travis #8: 1B Justin [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is part two of the Blue Jays deadline 2017 top-ten trade value series. The introduction, as well as the tenth through sixth most valuable, went up at <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12567&amp;utm_content=buffer992d4&amp;utm_medium=social&amp;utm_source=twitter.com&amp;utm_campaign=buffer">BP Toronto yesterday.</a> As a brief recap before, your tenth to sixth most valuable Blue Jays trade assets:</p>
<p>#10: RHP Joe Biagini</p>
<p>#9: 2B Devon Travis</p>
<p>#8: 1B Justin Smoak</p>
<p>#7: SS Bo Bichette</p>
<p>#6: LHP J.A. Happ</p>
<p>And now into the top five most valuable Blue Jays.</p>
<p><strong>#5: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=107184">3B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/5-Guerrero.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12588" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/5-Guerrero.png" alt="#5 Guerrero" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>This was an appropriate spot for a break because when I was first getting started on this exercise, identifying the five most valuable trade chips in the organization was easy. While it may not appear that way on a numerical list, you could run the St. Lawrence River through the gulf between Happ and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Guerrero is one of the most highly regarded prospects in all of baseball, placing 13th on the mid-season list at <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=32224">Baseball Prospectus</a> and an astounding <em>second overall </em>at <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-midseason-top-100-prospects-july-7/#6qXSA461V3KqGhzi.97">Baseball America</a>. These types of prospects simply don&#8217;t get moved very often, and when they do—see Yoan Moncada for Chris Sale and Eloy Jimenez for Jose Quintana—it&#8217;s for a cost controlled elite major league talent. In fact, Guerrero has a strong case for being number four on the list. If he shows even a glimmer against Florida State League pitching over the final six weeks of the minor league season, that leap will be a much easier call on the offseason iteration of the Blue Jays trade value series here at BP Toronto.</p>
<p>It can sometimes be challenging trying to compare minor leaguers to major leaguers using the same scale, as it feels a bit awkward trying to assign value to someone so far from the show. <a href="http://www.thepointofpittsburgh.com/mlb-prospect-surplus-values-2016-updated-edition/">Kevin Creagh and Steve DiMiceli of The Point of Pittsburgh</a> have developed and tweaked a model over the years to help make that comparison a bit easier to digest. The whole article is worth your time, but in short, they have divided historical top 100 prospects into hitters and pitchers, and then further subdivided them into buckets based upon specific ranges of rankings. For each of these ten buckets, they provide the average WAR and surplus value over the six years of team control, as well as some bust metrics (less than 3 WAR; 0 or less WAR).</p>
<p>Using Baseball Prospectus&#8217; rankings, the average prospect in Guerrero&#8217;s bucket has produced 13.0 WAR and 62 million in surplus value over the six team-controlled years. Buying into Baseball America&#8217;s #2 overall ranking, those numbers jump to 15.3 WAR and nearly 74 million in surplus value. Only 7 of the 96 from those two buckets produced 0 or less WAR, so historically, someone like Guerrero has more than a 90 percent chance of becoming <em>something</em>. Comparatively, hitters in Bo Bichette&#8217;s bucket averaged 8.1 WAR and 38 million in surplus value. In other words, despite being ranked as the top two prospect in the minor league system and only two spots apart on this list, it wouldn&#8217;t be a stretch to say Guerrero has twice the value as a trade asset. Hence the gulf.</p>
<p><strong>#4: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=56185">3B Josh Donaldson</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/4-Donaldson.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12589" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/4-Donaldson.png" alt="#4 Donaldson" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>Josh Donaldson has garnered the most attention as the poster boy for a potential rebuild in Toronto, but in reality, despite having a Most Valuable Player trophy with his name on it, a .291/.387/.559 slash line, and 19.8 WARP over his last three full seasons, he may actually be only the fourth most valuable trade asset the Blue Jays have.</p>
<p>This ranking isn&#8217;t a slight against Josh, as even with his struggles since returning from the disabled list he&#8217;s clearly still the <em>best </em>player in the organization. Unfortunately, Donaldson has two key factors working against his value. First, he&#8217;ll be a free agent following the 2018 season—a year in which he&#8217;ll be paid in the neighbourhood of 25 million for his fourth trip through arbitration. Any interested team would have to be both willing and capable of stomaching that short term salary and the long term cost of elite young talent in order to have Josh Donaldson play upwards of 200 regular season games and participate in potentially two postseason runs in their uniform. The second is that, while a great story, Donaldson&#8217;s epiphany and renaissance as a hitter led to his service clock starting much later than it does for most players. After 2018, he&#8217;ll be entering free agency looking ahead to his age-33 season, meaning that Donaldson isn&#8217;t necessarily the type of guy that a team pays an exorbitant cost to acquire so that they can throw a lengthy extension on him, too.</p>
<p>As far as I can tell, recent comparables for a trade of an MVP-caliber hitter with 1.5 years of control remaining don&#8217;t exist. These days, players like this simply don&#8217;t get traded. Pitchers live in a completely different market; there are 150 rotation spots and even more bullpen jobs across baseball, but there are only thirty spots at each position and only a handful of teams that would match up on both need and the ability to pay. With such a narrow pool of suitors for elite position players on the verge of free agency, opposing teams are likely wary of bidding against themselves, leading to lesser offers. Consequently, rather than enraging their fan base and dealing their star for a pittance—like J.D. Martinez, as one example—front offices choose to hold out hope that an extension with their star will eventually be reached. In a vacuum he may be the fourth most valuable trade asset, but history suggests that Donaldson and the Blue Jays are likely to ride things out for the at least the next two years regardless.</p>
<p><strong>#3: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=68997">RHP Roberto Osuna</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/3-Osuna.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12590" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/3-Osuna.png" alt="#3 Osuna" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>With the chronic blister and fingernail issues that Aaron Sanchez has battled this season, Roberto Osuna could make a legitimate case as the second most valuable trade asset in the organization. What kept him behind Sanchez, at least in my book, was that you could throw Sanchez in the bullpen tomorrow, tell him to exclusively throw 98 to 99 mile per hour two-seam fastballs, and he&#8217;d probably be 80 or 90 percent of the reliever Osuna is. Even with the optimism from the fan base about moving Osuna to the rotation, I&#8217;m not sure he could do an equally similar impersonation of Sanchez&#8217; 2016 season if the roles were reversed. But Osuna doesn&#8217;t need to throw 200 innings a year to be an extraordinarily valuable trade asset. The 22-year old has settled in as one of the most dominant relief pitchers in the game today, and is on pace for a career-high 2.2 WARP this season.</p>
<p>Relievers are the most commonly moved asset, but few have the combination of dominance, team control and experience that can Osuna boast. He&#8217;s controllable through 2020 with three arbitration years forthcoming, and while they&#8217;ll be at less than market value due to the nature of the process itself, the salaries won&#8217;t be inconsequential with his ever increasing save totals. And while most of us have moved past this primitive line of thought, some may still see value in Osuna being a &#8220;proven playoff closer&#8221;. To wit, the Blue Jays pushed into the American League Championship Series in Osuna&#8217;s rookie and sophomore campaigns, and he has answered the bell with a career 1.04 ERA/2.22 FIP across 14 career postseason games. Those were the highest of high leverage situations, and Osuna showed no qualms with being deployed in any type of situation by manager John Gibbons.</p>
<p>Just last year both Aroldis Chapman and Andrew Miller got moved for massive prospect packages, but Chapman had just a couple of months remaining on his deal and Miller was owed about 20 million over two and a half years on his. Osuna has achieved their level of performance on the field, but offers far more team control with the added bonus of going year-to-year as protection against injury. Looking back another seven months prior for a third comparable, the Phillies moved Ken Giles to the Houston Astros in another blockbuster. Giles had the dominance and team control, but not the ninth inning experience. Still, he landed Mark Appel (when he was still well regarded) and Vince Velasquez in Philadelphia, as well as a handful of other lesser pieces. For Shapiro and Atkins to seriously consider moving Osuna, any package would have to dwarf what those arms got. Incredibly, it&#8217;s not a stretch to think someone might just do it.</p>
<p><strong>#2: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=67107">RHP Aaron Sanchez</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/2-Sanchez.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12591" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/2-Sanchez.png" alt="#2 Sanchez" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>Prior to the 2017 season I don&#8217;t think there&#8217;s any question that Aaron Sanchez was the most valuable pitcher in the Blue Jays organization, and he&#8217;d have had a strong argument as the most valuable overall. We&#8217;ve evolved beyond ERA and win-loss record as tools for evaluating pitchers, but there&#8217;s still a certain degree of coolness in leading the league in the former and running a glorious 15-2 mark in the latter, which is exactly what Aaron Sanchez did in 2016 while fighting off questions about being shut down or moved to the bullpen. As a 24-year old he produced 3.7, 3.9, and 4.9 wins above replacement by Baseball Prospectus, FanGraphs, and Baseball Reference respectively, and Sanchez&#8217; star was burning as bright as a summer day at the ballpark.</p>
<p>Then came the blisters. Sanchez has been placed on the disabled list four times already this season—April 15th, May 1st, May 20th, and July 22nd—for middle finger issues, and unfortunately, they&#8217;re not the same as those that <a href="http://nypost.com/2017/06/01/fan-says-mr-met-showered-with-profane-heckles-before-bird-flip/">surrounded Mr. Met</a> earlier this year. But what seems to have been long forgotten is that these issues first popped up last year. Sanchez was removed from a start on September 11, 2016 with blister issues, and in speaking to <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/can-aaron-sanchez-speed-healing-process-blister/">Sportsnet&#8217;s Shi Davidi</a> afterwards, the right hander revealed he&#8217;d been dealing with blister issues since spring training of <em>that year</em>. Whatever solution he and the training staff used to quietly manage the problem last year clearly hasn&#8217;t translated into 2017. Sanchez dealt with blister issues <em>this </em>spring as well, which led to his delayed start to his year and likely contributed to his trip to the disabled list in April.</p>
<p>With this much uncertainty surrounding his finger, it&#8217;s hard to peg down exactly what kind of value Sanchez has at this point in time. Blisters are supposed to be a bit of a nuisance, not something that will cost a pitcher three quarters of the season when it&#8217;s all said and done. If he had just 36 innings under his belt in late July due to arm-related issues, he&#8217;d be much lower on this list &#8212; were he to make the top ten at all. Yet I feel comfortable that if Aaron Sanchez&#8217; name were floated on the trade market, opposing general managers would be tripping over themselves trying to get the Blue Jays on the line as they barked at their interns to provide them with an exhaustive list of each and every blister fix known to man.</p>
<p>If you take the stance that Sanchez will get over this issue in the coming months, the trade that sent Shelby Miller to Arizona provides something of a parallel comparison. In the 2015/2016 offseason, Miller was entering his first year of arbitration coming off a 5.1 WARP season in Atlanta. In exchange, the Braves received prospects Dansby Swanson and Aaron Blair (who immediately slotted as Atlanta&#8217;s #1 and 4 prospects, <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28165">according to Chris Crawford</a>), as well as criminally underrated outfielder Ender Inciarte who was coming off a 4.1 WARP season of his own. Of course, the Diamondbacks were brutalized in the public domain for the package they surrendered, and general manager Dave Stewart was fired less than a year after making the trade. Sanchez wouldn&#8217;t net that strong of a return, but needless to say, cheap, young, dominant right handed starting pitching is more valuable than gold.</p>
<p><strong>#1: <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/card/card.php?id=70371">RHP Marcus Stroman</a></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/1-Stroman.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-12592" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/1-Stroman.png" alt="#1 Stroman" width="466" height="101" /></a></p>
<p>The most valuable trade asset in the Toronto Blue Jays organization is right handed starter Marcus Stroman. Still only 26-years old, Stroman has already built the reputation as an unbelievably hard worker and a fearless big-game pitcher, and his performance on the field has more than backed up all of the narratives. Never shy to tinker or evolve his repertoire over the course of a game or season if dictated by results or opponents , Stroman has pitched like a top of the rotation starter pretty much from the moment he made his major league debut. As a rookie he produced 3.3 WARP over 20 starts in 2014, added 0.3 WARP over 4 starts in September 2015 after miraculously returning from a torn ACL, produced 3.5 WARP over 32 starts in 2016, and is currently on pace for a career best 5.1 WARP this season. According to Baseball Reference, he&#8217;s on track to eclipse 7 WAR. But it takes more than just great numbers to truly be heralded as an ace.</p>
<p>Stroman is reliable. Stroman is the easiest guy in the world to root for. In aggregate, this July has seen the most embarrassing pitching I&#8217;ve experienced in Blue Jays history. Starters have seemingly failed to complete four innings more often than not, forcing manager John Gibbons to churn through the relief arms in both Toronto and Buffalo like a butter mill. His one saving grace has been his ace, Marcus Stroman. Over his four starts in July, Stroman has faced nothing but terrific offense deployed by the Yankees, Astros, Red Sox, and Indians—all of whom currently sit in playoff spots— and responded with 5.0, 7.0, 6.2, and 7.2 innings pitched. He developed a blister in the first inning against Cleveland on Saturday, but still battled through 117 pitches because he knew his manager and his teammates needed him.</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman has never been on the disabled list with an arm injury and is under control through 2020. He took the Blue Jays to arbitration and won last winter, meaning his second, third, and fourth trips through the process are likely to cost in the neighbourhood of 30 to 40 million total, depending upon the number of Cy Young votes he earns over the next couple of seasons. That&#8217;s not unlike what Chris Sale had left on his contract when the Boston Red Sox swung a deal for him last offseason. As you&#8217;ll of course remember, they forfeited Yoan Moncada, the number one prospect in all of baseball, as well as elite right handed pitcher Michael Kopech and a pair of other intriguing prospects for the privilege of paying him that money.</p>
<p>Now, Marcus Stroman isn&#8217;t Chris Sale, and the Blue Jays window to buy out a few of his free agent years with a long term extension has likely come and gone (if it existed at all in the first place). His trade value likely falls somewhere between that of Sale and Sale&#8217;s former teammate, Jose Quintana. In a word: enormous. Already at the top of this list, if the Blue Jays were serious about moving him—which I&#8217;m skeptical of as his 3.5 years of control provide ample opportunity to trade him later if the team can&#8217;t turn things around in the short term—he would immediately soar to the top of everyone else&#8217;s list, too.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Gary A. Vasquez, USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Bold Predictions for the Blue Jays in the Second Half</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/07/bold-predictions-for-the-blue-jays-in-the-second-half/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 07 Jul 2017 11:05:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kendrys Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Monday night’s game against the Yankees marked the official midpoint of the 2017 Blue Jays’ season. While the season hasn’t played out the way Blue Jays fans would have liked thus far, there are 78 games still to be played. And a lot can happen in 78 games. Speaking of a lot happening in 78 [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Monday night’s game against the Yankees marked the official midpoint of the 2017 Blue Jays’ season. While the season hasn’t played out the way Blue Jays fans would have liked thus far, there are 78 games still to be played. And a lot can happen in 78 games. Speaking of a lot happening in 78 games, this season has given us plenty of surprises so far: Justin Smoak raking, a month of Kevin Pillar walking, and the Rogers Centre roof being closed almost every damn day.</p>
<p>Making predictions might be a fool’s errand, but you can’t say I told you so if you don’t make them. And given the Blue Jays recent losing streak, looking to the near future may be more appealing than venting or unpacking the team’s current struggles. With that in mind, here are some bold predictions for the second half of the 2017 season. Bold, bold. Not Doritos “bold taste” bold, but that Indian place you have to remind yourself not to get the hot option bold.</p>
<h4>Russ Martin Moves to Second, Josh Donaldson to Catcher</h4>
<p>So far this season, injuries and poor performance have wreaked havoc with the Blue Jays starting lineup. John Gibbons has been forced to start players out of position. Jose Bautista has seen time at third base and Russ Martin has started at both second and third. With the Blue Jays trading for catcher Miguel Montero today, there is some speculation that Martin could play even more second base.</p>
<p>Stars playing out of position will go to an even further extreme in the second half when Gibbons experiments with starting Josh Donaldson behind the plate. Donaldson, who last caught in 2012, will push Russell Martin to second base &#8211; allowing Martin to avoid the physical tolls of catching everyday and Gibbons to keep Ryan Goins on the bench. Despite playing below average defense at the position, Donaldson’s bat makes him worth 4.5 Wins Above Replacement in just over 40 innings. Donaldson becomes the most effective Blue Jays catcher at stopping the running game. We still don’t see Kendrys Morales in the outfield.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>The AL East Continues to Get Great Production from Unexpected First Basemen</h4>
<p>Forget Miguel Cabrera, Edwin Encarnacion, and the rest of name brand first basemen of the AL Central. The AL East provides more first base production for a fraction of the price. Seeing Justin Smoak and Logan Morrison on the American League offensive leaderboards has been a surprise to everyone. So much so that no one seems to notice the Red Sox’s Mitch Moreland having himself a nice little season of his own – posting a .264/.350/.468 slash line through Sunday.</p>
<p>Expect the trend to continue in the second half when James Loney signs with the Orioles and posts a career highs in home runs, on-base percentage and RBIs – all in half a season while filling in for the injured Chris Davis.</p>
<p>And speaking of Justin Smoak…</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Justin Smoak’s Success Leads to Many Emulating His Approach</h4>
<p>As Smoak continues to mash the baseball from both sides of the plate, his unorthodox diet begins to catch on with the rest of the team. Players like Jose Bautista and Russell Martin, known for their dedication to healthy eating and training, begin to emulate Smoak’s nutritional regiment and start eating pasta topped with mayonnaise instead of their preferred tomato sauce.</p>
<p>Bautista and Martin also begin to listen to country music and chewing Skoal brand tobacco. Their production spikes accordingly.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>The Blue Jays Sign Taz Tulowitzki</h4>
<p>With Bo Bichette and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in the midst of impressive seasons with the single-A Lansing Lugnuts, the Blue Jays front office begins to believe they have identified a new market inefficiency in the quest to build a winning baseball team: employing the children of former major league players.</p>
<p>In a piece of shrewd business, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins sign Troy Tulowitzki’s 3-year-old son, Taz, to a 30-year contract reminiscent of shady backroom dealings that happen in professional soccer. Scouts project Taz to contribute on both offense and defense in the middle of the diamond but fear a steep drop in his offensive production during his early 30s. The younger Tulo is paid a signing bonus significantly higher than that given to Cavan Biggio.</p>
<p>The contract will run through Taz’s age 34 season &#8211; which is the age the Blue Jays had wished his father’s contract would have expired.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Kendrys Morales Hits the Longest, Hardest Single of the Season</h4>
<p>Kendrys Morales has always hit the baseball hard. The Blue Jays designated hitter is regularly atop Major League Baseball’s year-end exit velocity leader boards. Unfortunately for Kendrys, a lot of his scorched balls are hit on the ground, where they do minimal damage. In another spat of bad luck, Morales hits the longest single of the season when he laces a 400-foot line drive off the top of the centre field wall at the Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>The ill-fated combination of Morales’ lack of footspeed and an incredibly well-struck baseball leaves Kendrys standing at first base and the proud owner of baseball’s longest and hardest hit single of the season (and the Statcast era).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>Blue Jays High Performance Department Hires Eddie Van Halen to work with Aaron Sanchez</h4>
<p>With more traditional baseball remedies remaining ineffective, Gil Kim enlists the help of 80s guitarist Eddie Van Halen to help keep Sanchez’s blister’s and fingernails in check. Kim, who was impressed with the famous guitarist’s ability to practice for hours on end without ruining his hands, hopes Eddie will be able to transfer some of his hand preservation secrets to the Blue Jays’ young ace.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h4>After Winning the World Series, the Jays are Invited to Meet PM Trudeau. Several Players Elect to Not Attend.</h4>
<p>After being eliminated in the American League Championship Series two years in a row, the Blue Jays finally do the dang thing and advance to the World Series, where they beat the Nationals in seven games.</p>
<p>As per tradition, the team is invited to meet with Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau during the offseason. However, several notable players don’t show up.</p>
<p>The consummate professional, Troy Tulowitzki elects to remain at the Blue Jays’ spring training facilities in order to not disrupt his offseason workouts. Coming off another MVP-caliber season, Josh Donaldson, who recently purchased Battlefied 4 for Xbox 360, has some buddies over to his place to play multiplayer and declines the invitation (but he does invite PM Trudeau to join their online game). And like the Cubs’ <a href="https://www.sbnation.com/lookit/2017/6/28/15891598/cubs-carl-edwards-jr-skipped-white-house-visit-for-dinosaur-museums">Carl Edwards Jr.</a>, Joe Biagini skips the meeting in order to take in the dinosaur exhibit at the nearby Museum of Natural History in Ottawa.</p>
<p>Before you call these too bold, go ahead and pull up Justin Smoak’s 2017 stats. And after you do that, remember that what makes baseball so great is all of the improbable things that happen each and every season. And with that in mind…cue the second half comeback, Blue Jays!</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 60: Can&#8217;t Quell the DL Spell</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/07/artificial-turf-wars-ep-60-cant-quell-the-dl-spell/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 07 Jun 2017 09:57:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Podcast]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[injuries]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[TurfPod]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Episode 60 Greg and Josh go over the last week of stories from the Blue Jays&#8217; 4-3 week. They go over the games against the Yankees and Reds, touch on the triumphant return to superstardom (and health) of Josh Donaldson, the latest injury to Devon Travis, Francisco Liriano and Joe Biagini&#8217;s rest of the season [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 60</strong></p>
<p>Greg and Josh go over the last week of stories from the Blue Jays&#8217; 4-3 week. They go over the games against the Yankees and Reds, touch on the triumphant return to superstardom (and health) of Josh Donaldson, the latest injury to Devon Travis, Francisco Liriano and Joe Biagini&#8217;s rest of the season outlooks, and the J.P. Howell/Jason Grilli conundrum. They also give out THREE Do-Overs, and talk about the unlikely four homer game from Scooter Gennett.</p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/006/show_10066905_2017_06_07_04_04_58.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/1/006/show_10066905_2017_06_07_04_04_58.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
<p><a href="https://itunes.apple.com/ca/podcast/blue-jays-plus-podcast/id705699884?mt=2"><img class="alignnone wp-image-63" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/03/itunes1.png" alt="itunes" width="168" height="62" /></a><a href="https://soundcloud.com/turfpod"><img class=" wp-image-9054 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/soundcloud.jpg" alt="soundcloud" width="123" height="60" /></a></p>
<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Enhanced Frustration of Familiar Blue Jays Problems</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/12/the-enhanced-frustration-of-the-same-blue-jays-problems/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 12 Apr 2017 13:52:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s get a few things straight. Starting the season at 1-6 really sucks. However, the Blue Jays will also be perfectly fine in 2017, and one week&#8217;s worth of games holds no predictive value. But damn the start to this season has been frustrating. Everything that could have gone wrong has, which looks even worse when it&#8217;s the exact same issues year over year.</p>
<p>This Blue Jays team is remarkably unchanged from the version that we saw on Opening Day one year ago. Among the 14 spots in the starting lineup and rotation, there have been just three changes: Kendrys Morales has replaced Edwin Encarnacion, Francisco Liriano pitches instead of R.A. Dickey, and Michael Saunders has shrunk a few inches while simultaneously either being a little pudgier or becoming a lot more Venezuelan. Oh sorry, that&#8217;s Steve Pearce and Ezequiel Carrera.</p>
<p>As such, not only have the flaws of certain Jays players been exposed early on, but those flaws could have been predicted or addressed, in some cases. In other cases it&#8217;s just a player who, while good, is not perfect, and their imperfections have shone through.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Unaddressable</h3>
<h4>Marco Estrada&#8217;s Changeup Digs the Long Ball</h4>
<p>In most cases, Marco Estrada uses his tightly spun changeup to dazzle hitters into hitting perfectly placed in field pop ups. That&#8217;s a large part of what&#8217;s made him so incredibly effective over the last two seasons. However, on Sunday April 9th against the Rays, that was not at all the case. Estrada lasted five innings in that start, but was peppered by Rays hitters for three home runs on the night.</p>
<p>The first home run was hit by the Rays&#8217; Corey Dickerson in the bottom of the third. The changeup was <a href="http://i.imgur.com/ZxGDI5C.png" target="_blank">up and in</a>, but Dickerson got just enough of it to dink the ball over the short wall in the left field corner at Tropicana field. You can cut Marco Estrada some slack on this one. Per <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a>, it had a true distance of just 326 feet and wouldn&#8217;t have been a home run in any other park in the majors.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171.jpg"><img class="wp-image-10184 size-medium alignnone" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/tropicanafield_2017_171-300x295.jpg" alt="tropicanafield_2017_171" width="300" height="295" /></a></p>
<p><em>The Path of Dickerson&#8217;s HR via <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/hrdetail.php?id=2017_171" target="_blank">ESPN&#8217;s Home Run Tracker</a></em></p>
<p>Unfortunately the homer troubles didn&#8217;t end there. After a Kevin Kiermaier triple and a Brad Miller walk, Steven Souza Jr. hit his own homer to left field, once again off of a changeup that Estrada left <a href="http://i.imgur.com/JbXIrme.png" target="_blank">up and over the plate</a>. A weak ground ball to first base got Marco Estrada out of the inning, but there was still more to come. In the bottom of the fourth, after going down 0-2, Jesus Sucre hit a home run off of, you guessed it, an Estrada changeup.</p>
<p>Estrada’s hasn’t always struggled with home runs off his changeup, but his propensity to give up home runs in general is the worst part of his game. His 1.18 HR/9 ranked 29th worst among qualified pitchers in 2016. Yet Marco Estrada&#8217;s changeup is his bread and butter pitch. Because it&#8217;s so good and because this is only a single start, it&#8217;s really not worth worrying about, but it&#8217;s certainly frustrating.</p>
<h4>Josh Donaldson&#8217;s Achilles Heel</h4>
<p>Josh Donaldson is a notoriously robust baseball player and he&#8217;s played in more than 155 games in each of the last four seasons. However, the <a href="http://www.cbc.ca/sports/baseball/josh-donaldson-vikings-history-canada-1.3941918" target="_blank">viking-esuqe star</a> has a Greek flaw, but it&#8217;s in his calf rather than his heel. On Sunday, Donaldson pulled up after running out a ground ball. Donaldson had to be removed from the game and missed the Blue Jays&#8217; home opener (save for a 9th inning pinch hitting appearance) as a result of what the team is calling a calf injury. This isn&#8217;t the first time that he&#8217;s had calf issues either. In the Blue Jays first series at Tropicana Field in 2016, <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-josh-donaldson-exits-game-rays/" target="_blank">Josh Donaldson limped his way to first base</a>, which also resulted in his being pulled from the game and getting diagnosed with a calf injury. The best predictor of a lack of injuries in the future is a lack of injuries in the past. Donaldson shouldn&#8217;t have too many nagging issues going forward, but it sure sucks when there&#8217;s even a chance of losing the player who&#8217;s <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/index.php?cid=2023770">posted more value than the rest of your lineup combined</a>.</p>
<h3>The Imperfect and Clearly Addressable</h3>
<h4>Ryan Goins&#8217; Existence on the Blue Jays Active Roster</h4>
<p>For some reason, Ryan Goins is still here. Personally, I have nothing against Ryan Goins, but I&#8217;ve yet to see any strong argument for his continued presence in Toronto. Following the team&#8217;s choice of Goins over Melvin Upton Jr., Gideon Turk <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/">wrote that it was Goins&#8217; flexibility and fit for the team&#8217;s present roster construction that forced the Blue Jays hand</a>. While that answer makes sense in a vacuum, no roster needs two no-hit middle infielders on the bench, especially not when one of the two is MLB’s worst hitter. In some ways, the Blue Jays have proved that as Goins and Barney have split playing time, neither having being used in the same game. Even in the Blue Jays home opener, a game in which Ryan Goins started at 3B, the team found no need to use the second middle infielder on the bench. Instead, all we saw were three paltry plate appearances and one miraculous walk. Had there not been two middle infielders on the bench, someone palatable could have pinch hit for one of the Jays&#8217; light hitters. There’s no need for both players. Now only if the Blue Jays would see it.</p>
<h4>The Belief that Justin Smoak Starting at 1B is Ok</h4>
<p>In spite of his once immaculate prospect status, Justin Smoak has not been a great major league player. In fact <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=2800&amp;type=8&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=1950&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=21,a" target="_blank">very few first basemen have been as bad as Justin Smoak has</a>, while getting as much major league playing time. That trend hasn&#8217;t changed much in 2017, as he has only continued to strike out at what seem to be the Blue Jays most opportune run scoring moments. Additionally, his hitting performance is not the only issue with his starting at 1B. He has also forced Steve Pearce in to the confines of left field. Steve Pearce is a versatile player, but he&#8217;s by no means an ideal defensive left fielder and he&#8217;s shown that so far this season. The only reason he continues to be forced out there is Justin Smoak&#8217;s presence at first base and on the Blue Jays payroll.</p>
<p>Some have continued to argue that the Blue Jays <em>must </em>have some advanced metric that tells them Smoak&#8217;s true first base defense is not only better than the publicly available defensive metrics say, but good enough to offset his being one of MLB&#8217;s worst hitting first basemen. Given that no other team has recently employed or even attempted to employ a defense first starting 1B, I find that hard to believe. With Pearce&#8217;s versatility, Jose Bautista&#8217;s previous first base experience, and Melvin Upton&#8217;s ability to play all three outfield positions, the Blue Jays had a chance to fix first base. Yet, once again, they squandered it, and they&#8217;ve been rewarded with strikeout after strikeout ever since.</p>
<h3>The Future</h3>
<p>As was noted earlier in this piece, everything that could have gone wrong for the Blue Jays, has gone wrong for the Blue Jays. There&#8217;s no greater evidence of that than their current 1-6 record; the team&#8217;s <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-off-to-worst-start-in-team-history-after-dropping-home-opener-to-milwaukee-brewers-4-3" target="_blank">worst ever start to a season</a>. But it will get better and it&#8217;d be nearly impossible for it not to. That doesn&#8217;t make any of the team&#8217;s current problems, addressable or otherwise, any less frustrating. If one were to see any of the aforementioned issues once it&#8217;d be unfortunate. To see the same issues crop with the same players a year later is even worse. However, it&#8217;s also incredibly easy to see the negatives when the team has only won one game. Once the Blue Jays start dominating again, the addressable woes will be forgotten. That&#8217;s the Blue Jays team we need and the Blue Jays team that we deserve. Until then, the <a href="https://twitter.com/dlbno/status/851979226920001537" target="_blank">barrage of critical tweets</a> are a little more appropriate.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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