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	<title>Toronto &#187; Jason Leblebijian</title>
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		<title>The Problem with the Blue Jays&#8217; Second Base &#8220;Solution&#8221;</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/19/the-blue-jays-and-their-second-base-problem/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Jun 2017 10:08:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Leblebijian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11876</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You don&#8217;t need me to tell you that second base has not been kind to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017. With a 77 wRC+ going into Sunday&#8217;s games, their second baseman rank 25th in baseball in offensive production. Four different players have played the position for the Blue Jays this season, and all four of [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You don&#8217;t need me to tell you that second base has not been kind to the Toronto Blue Jays in 2017. With a 77 wRC+ going into Sunday&#8217;s games, their second baseman rank 25th in baseball in offensive production. Four different players have played the position for the Blue Jays this season, and all four of them have struggled offensively. With Devon Travis looking like he will be out for the remainder of the season after knee surgery, the bulk of playing time has gone to the likes of Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney, two players who are less inspiring with the bat than Sam Dyson is on the mound against Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>Obviously, the Blue Jays cannot continue to run those players out onto the field everyday and expect to receive production. John Gibbons has told the media that they will continue to shuffle them into and out of the lineup until one of them gets hot and takes control of the position full time. While Gibbons falling prey to the notion that a batter who is hot will continue to be hot is a concern, the larger concern is that he is actually correct that at the moment, that scenario is the Blue Jays&#8217; best option.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s June 19th, and with another six weeks before the MLB Trade Deadline, teams are not willing to make big deals because so much can change in the standings before July 31st. Before Sunday&#8217;s games started, just five games separated last place in the American League and a playoff spot. Giving up on the season at this point for a club that is that close to a playoff spot is not a good look.</p>
<p>While the Blue Jays are looking for trade partners to fix their second base situation, it just isn&#8217;t possible at the moment. A club source said that they are trying to focus on buying players to help fill the holes in left field, second base, and in the bullpen, but instead are getting calls on Roberto Osuna (the Nationals keep trying) and Josh Donaldson (the Cardinals are one of those teams). The Blue Jays had internal discussions about New York Mets second baseman Neil Walker according to the same source, but now that he has been placed on the disabled list with a torn left hamstring, those conversations are moot until at least the All-Star Break. All of these trade discussions are in their preliminary stages, as most deals won&#8217;t be consummated until the end of July, so that really leaves the Blue Jays with only one other option to Barney and Goins, and that is in the form of Jason Leblebijian.</p>
<p>The case to call up Leblebijian from the Buffalo Bisons has been made across the internet for weeks, even by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/10/jason-leblebijian-is-the-answer-to-the-blue-jays-middle-infield-problem/" target="_blank">our own Elie Waitzer</a>. The argument goes that Barney and Goins have been so bad in 2017, that Leblebijian, who is batting .306/.375/.500, has to be able to be better than them if given the opportunity at the big league level. Elie even compared Leblebijian&#8217;s numbers to Dansby Swanson&#8217;s to strengthen his case, and came away with a strong argument that Leblebijian would in fact be an upgrade over Goins and Barney. However, the flaw in this argument, and all the other ones that support calling Leblebijian up from the minors to be given the starting job, is that the Blue Jays are aware of the talent possessed by all three players. I&#8217;d even go as far as suggesting that they are more aware of Leblebijian&#8217;s ability, along with Goins&#8217; and Barney&#8217;s, than we as fans are.</p>
<p>ZiPS rest of season projections project Darwin Barney for a .620 OPS for the rest of the season, and Ryan Goins for a .595 OPS. Although those numbers are astonishingly terrible, the Blue Jays and their talent evaluators don&#8217;t seem to believe Leblebijian would be able to top them at the big league level. The obvious move for months now has been to call up Leblebijian and give him playing time at second base. Clearly, the Blue Jays would have made that move already if they believed it to be the right one. However, even from only viewing his stats, there are reasons to be skeptical of Leblebijian&#8217;s AAA success &#8211; his .363 BABIP comes to mind as the most glaring one. Combine that with scouts who see Leblebijian often, it starts to make a lot more sense as to why he is still in Buffalo and not a couple of hours north at the Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>In 2013, the Buffalo Bisons had an infielder named Jim Negrych. From April until the end of June, Negrych was tearing the cover off of the ball, batting .332/.398/.475. Throughout those three months, sections of fans were clamouring for him to be called up to replace the messy combination of Emilio Bonifacio and Maicer Izturis. The Blue Jays did not make a move, and Negrych, who at the time was 28-years-old and never played in the big leagues, ended the season by hitting .203/.295/.225 from July through September. I&#8217;m not saying the 26-year-old Jason Leblebijian is Jim Negrych, but there were reasons why the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t call Negrych up then, and there are reasons why the Blue Jays aren&#8217;t calling up Leblebijian now.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s tough to watch Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney play everyday and continue to look like they are completely overmatched. However, there truly is no better option at this point, so we just have to sit and wait until the Blue Jays are able to upgrade next month, which, if they are still in the race, seems almost guaranteed to happen. Until then, when you see the second baseman coming up to bat, avert your eyes and take your mind to a happy place.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Mark L. Baer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Jason Leblebijian is the Answer to the Blue Jays Middle Infield Problem</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/10/jason-leblebijian-is-the-answer-to-the-blue-jays-middle-infield-problem/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 10 Jun 2017 11:20:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Leblebijian]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11483</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The middle infield was supposed to be a strength of this year&#8217;s club. It would&#8217;ve been nice for Gibbons to be able to pencil in Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis at the 4 and 5 every game, but it hasn&#8217;t quite worked out that way. As of today, Tulowitzki and Travis have combined for 302 PA [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The middle infield was supposed to be a strength of this year&#8217;s club. It would&#8217;ve been nice for Gibbons to be able to pencil in Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis at the 4 and 5 every game, but it hasn&#8217;t quite worked out that way.</p>
<p>As of today, Tulowitzki and Travis have combined for 302 PA at shortstop and second base while the combination of Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney, Chris Coghlan and Steve Pearce have combined for 437 PA. That ungodly quartet has collectively posted -1.3 WAR up to now. Throw in Tulowitzki and Travis&#8217;s production and you bump that number up to -0.4 WAR.</p>
<p>To be fair, unless you&#8217;re the Astros or the Indians, middle infield production can be pretty hard to come by. Here&#8217;s a look at the projected rest-of-season middle infield WAR across the league according to Fangraphs&#8217; <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/depthcharts.aspx?position=2B">depth charts</a>.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11492" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/MI-WAR.png" alt="MI WAR" width="786" height="450" /></p>
<p>Somehow, the Jays rank 16th with a projected 2.5 WAR from their mishmash of middle infield options. Baseball Prospectus&#8217;s <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/fantasy/dc/teams_by_positions.php">depth charts</a> differ slightly with a 2.7 WARP rest-of-season projection. Tulowitzki accounts for 72% of that sum, and then it&#8217;s pretty much random guesses at who delivers the rest. On the one hand it&#8217;s impressive that they&#8217;re projected to be around league average. On the other hand it&#8217;s profoundly depressing. With a healthy Tulowitzki and Travis you&#8217;d expect Toronto to rank in the upper third, maybe between the Mariners and the Twins. That&#8217;s a leap of a win or so, which is absolutely crucial given how the AL East is shaking out.</p>
<p>But there&#8217;s no reason to take that 2.5-2.7 WAR figure as gospel. With Travis out for at least a few weeks (probably longer, given his knee&#8217;s <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/baseball/2017/06/06/jays-infielder-devon-travis-out-with-knee-injury-again.html">history</a>), the depth charts bumped his projected plate appearances down to 89 and automatically distributed the remaining playing time to the ungodly quarter (Goins/Barney/Coghlan/Pearce). It even gives some action to prospect Richard Urena, but somehow completely omits 26-year-old utility man Jason Leblebijian. It&#8217;s worth noting that there&#8217;s a human element involved here. As a result, we might as well toss out that 2.5 WAR projection and try to come up with a better number that more accurately captures who will be getting the bulk of the middle infield playing time going forward. Let&#8217;s start with a quick look at Leblebijian.</p>
<p>Jason Leblebijian was drafted in the 25th round (775th overall) back in 2012 as a defence-first infielder. He&#8217;s a plus defender at short, second and third, which would be a huge asset off the bench for a club that&#8217;s already used Russell Martin and Jose Bautista in the infield. Here are a few examples of his defensive wizardry:</p>
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<p>Defence is still his strong suit, but over the past two years he&#8217;s risen from Low-A to Triple-A on the strength of his consistent bat. Here&#8217;s a fun comp.</p>
<p>Player A: .299/.366/.461</p>
<p>Player B: .277/.367/.436</p>
<p>Player A is Leblebijian over 178 games dating back to the start of 2016.</p>
<p>Player B is 2015 first overall pick Dansby Swanson over his 127 game minor league career.</p>
<p>Just for fun I calculated their <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/about/similarity.shtml">similarity </a><span style="color: #0000ee"><span style="text-decoration: underline">score</span></span>—a whimsical stat Bill James thought up to make comps more fun—and it came to 948. To put that in context, that&#8217;s about the same similarity score you&#8217;d get <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/l/lindofr01.shtml#all_ss_other">comparing Francisco Lindor</a> to Carlos Correa or Corey Seager. Sure, Dansby Swanson of the current .609 OPS isn&#8217;t the most flattering comp, but he&#8217;s still projected to put up 1.7 WARP over the rest of the season and has a good track record.</p>
<p>I could see Leblebijian contributing similar defence, with less patience and more pop than Swanson. He&#8217;s got a compact swing with easy power that should translate nicely to the big leagues, and doesn&#8217;t have much of a <a href="https://www.baseballamerica.com/statistics/players/cards/2338/jason-leblebijian/split">platoon split</a>.</p>
<p>Now that we know who Leblebijian is, let&#8217;s take a crack at a revised rest-of-season middle infield WAR projection for the Jays. For the sake of this estimate, we&#8217;ll assume that Leblebijian forces his way into a call up with his continued production in Buffalo and vultures 150 PAs at 2B/SS by the end of the season. Using <a href="http://www.ryantansey.com/simplewar.html">Ryan Tansey&#8217;s</a> simple WAR calculator, I input a regressed version of Leblebijian&#8217;s 2016-present statistics and came out with 1.2 WAR at shortstop and 1.06 WAR at second base. With Travis&#8217; health in question, Leblebijian would probably get more time at second so we&#8217;ll settle at 1.1 WAR over 150 PA.</p>
<p>Plug that production into our new (highly unscientific) depth chart and we end up with a projected 3.9 WAR rest-of-season from the middle infield. BP&#8217;s depth charts currently project Goins for -0.1 WAR at second over 61 PA, so assuming Goins doesn&#8217;t get a chance to suck we could even go a step further and bump the new projection up to an even 4 WAR.</p>
<p>Going back to the middle infield WAR rankings chart up top, that would put Toronto right around the Mariners, Giants, Cubs and Red Sox. That feels right. Time is perhaps the most important part of this hypothetical solution. Whether or not Leblebijian actually sticks for 150 PA, the front office needs to act now, while there&#8217;s still time for him to have a real impact.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports </em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Athletics</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/05/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-athletics/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 05 Jun 2017 15:34:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jason Leblebijian]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Oakland Athletics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Yonder Alonso]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11439</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Sean Addis, Richard Lee-Sam, and Gideon Turk The Year of the First Basemen The Toronto Blue Jays are not the only team who has a first baseman that is having a breakout year. Oakland’s Yonder Alonso&#8217;s start to the 2017 season is showcasing the potential that the San Diego Padres saw when they [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><i><span style="font-weight: 400">Written by Sean Addis, Richard Lee-Sam, and Gideon Turk</span></i></p>
<h3><b>The Year of the First Basemen</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Toronto Blue Jays are not the only team who has a first baseman that is having a breakout year. Oakland’s Yonder Alonso&#8217;s start to the 2017 season is showcasing the potential that the San Diego Padres saw when they acquired him from the Cincinnati Reds in 2011. He was so well-regarded that San Diego traded away another highly touted prospect that you may have heard of: Anthony Rizzo.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The potential of Alonso never seemed to translate to the major leagues, however. Over the previous three seasons, Alonso has averaged a slash line of .259/.323/.379 with a career high of nine home runs that was set in his first full season in 2012. However, in 46 games in 2017, he has 16 home runs and a stash line of .297/.395/.685. Alonso also ranks fif</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> in major league baseball with a wRC+ 188 ahead of Washington Nationals outfielder Bryce Harper.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Exploring zone charts from last season and 2017 show a significant increase in exit velocity. He has also been successful hitting pitches away and inside, making Alonso a challenging out for opposing pitchers (Charts below &#8211; 2016 on top, 2017 on the bottom).  </span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Screen-Shot-2017-06-05-at-12.55.40-AM.png"><img class=" wp-image-11440 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Screen-Shot-2017-06-05-at-12.55.40-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-06-05 at 12.55.40 AM" width="475" height="550" /></a></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Not only has his ability to drive pitches, as evidenced by the grids above, but Alonso has also improved his patience at the plate. This is indicated by his increase in walk rate to 13.7 %. So why the change in performance? </span><a href="https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/mlb/columnist/bob-nightengale/2017/06/01/yonder-alonso-athletics-swing-adjustments-manny-machado-brother-in-law/102384696/"><span style="font-weight: 400"> </span><span style="font-weight: 400">Bob Nightengale of USA Today reported</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> how Alonso reached out to many players in the league, including Carlos Betlran and Albert Pujols, to discuss their hitting approach. He used the information to help overhaul his swing in the offseason.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">He has become a threatening bat in the middle of the order for the Athletics. The Blue Jays will need to be cautious pitching to him. One positive for Toronto is that they will be starting two left-handed pitchers in this series, JA Happ and Francisco Liriano. Alonso has struggled against southpaws in limited at bats this season. Toronto will hope to continue that trend starting Monday.</span></p>
<h3>Joe Random</h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If the Blue Jays are leading a close game in the late innings, you can expect to see John Gibbons turn to Joe Smith at some point. The sidearm throwing righty has been a huge piece of a Toronto bullpen that has performed well of late. The unit posted a K/9 of 11.10 in May, second league-wide only to the Astros 11.47 mark. Smith led the way in the month, striking out 13.5 per 9 and, more importantly, taking over the role as set-up man as it begins to look like the fire in the Grilli is extinguished.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Smith has never been a big strikeout guy in the past. In fact, the only time he has averaged more than a strikeout an inning was in 2007 when he was a rookie with the New York Mets. Part of the reason that Smith is seeing so much success this year is that he’s starting to lay off his sinker a little and lean on his fourseam fastball more, often going to it with two strikes against left handed hitters. Both the fourseam and his slider are generating a ton of swings and misses. According to Brooks Baseball, hitters are whiffing on 17.92% of fourseam fastballs Smith throws – the highest whiff rate he’s ever had on his “heater” – and 16.8% of sliders, up from 10.53 in ’15 and 10.98 last season. As a result, Smith is racking up the Ks. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">His name is boring and I admittedly forgot it at least ten times during April, but Joe Smith’s work out of the bullpen has been heroic. Thankfully now, there’s a bridge to Osuna in the nin</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> and not two pieces of rope and a few wooden planks like we saw when Jason Grilli got high leverage innings earlier in the year.</span></p>
<h3><b>Devon Travis’ Left Wrist and Jason Leblebijian</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Since coming over to the Blue Jays before the 2015 season, Devon Travis has had nothing but success on the field but plenty of problems staying on it consistently. Another saga of the Travis Injury Chronicles (available for pre-order now!) may have been opened on Sunday against New York when he was hit by a pitch on his left wrist in the seventh inning by flamethrowing righty Luis Severino. Although x-rays came back negative, that just means nothing is broken inside the body. However, it does <em>not</em> mean Travis has full control and range of his left hand via his wrist. As a player with notorious health issues, Travis may end up missing a few days </span><a href="http://m.bluejays.mlb.com/news/article/234365112/blue-jays-devon-travis-injures-hand-vs-yanks/"><span style="font-weight: 400">given the way</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> he was talking after the game on Sunday, and could even find himself on the 10-day DL if this persists.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">That brings us to Jason Leblebijian, the 26-year-old with the hard-to-pronounce last name who seems to have suddenly figured out the trick to having success as a hitter; the Illinois-native is slashing a cool .308/.380/.578 with the AAA Buffalo Bisons. Leblebijian is a utility infielder and would be the perfect candidate to replace Travis should he need to go on the DL. Even if Ryan Goins were to fill in for Travis in the starting lineup, Leblebijian offers versatility that could see him give off-days to the recently returned left side of the Blue Jays infield, a strategy that could reasonably keep Tulowitzki and Donaldson healthier for a longer period of time, or step through the revolving door in left field. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays have played so well since the beginning of May that their odds of making the playoffs have crept back up to close to forty percent. Losing Travis, who has been one of their hottest hitters during this stretch, could be very detrimental to them. If they want to mitigate the impact of that, calling up Jason Leblebijian would be the right move. Enough with the large bullpens! </span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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