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		<title>Goodbye, Edwin: Encarnacion Signs with Cleveland</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/22/goodbye-edwin-encarnacion-signs-with-cleveland/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/22/goodbye-edwin-encarnacion-signs-with-cleveland/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Dec 2016 01:56:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7921</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We tried to believe. We shouted for Rogers to &#8220;Pay the Man,&#8221; and hoped against all odds that the booming attendance and television numbers would provide enough payroll space. Even when the writing was on the wall with the Kendrys Morales signing, some of us convinced ourselves it was ok; Edwin can play first base! [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We tried to believe. We shouted for Rogers to &#8220;Pay the Man,&#8221; and hoped against all odds that the booming attendance and television numbers would provide enough payroll space. Even when the writing was on the wall with <a title="Report: Blue Jays Sign DH Kendrys Morales" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/11/report-blue-jays-sign-dh-kendrys-morales/" target="_blank">the Kendrys Morales signing</a>, some of us convinced ourselves it was ok; Edwin can play first base! Paul Kinzer certainly helped fan the flames of hope with his <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/encarnacion-s-agent-says-jays-showing-edwin-the-most-love-1.619496" target="_blank">recent report that the Jays were &#8220;showing Edwin the most love.&#8221;</a> Well, hope can only take us so far. After signing Steve Pearce and many &#8220;<a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/12/05/blue-jays-sign-steve-pearce-making-encarnacion-return-unlikely.html" target="_blank">hints</a>&#8221; from Ross Atkins that Encarnacion would not be back, it is finally official.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="nl" dir="ltr">Indians get EE</p>
<p>&mdash; Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/812112125170741249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 23, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: The three-year deal for Edwin Encarnacion includes a club option for $20M. The buyout is $5M, which is part of the $60M guarantee.</p>
<p>&mdash; Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/812113481495351296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 23, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion is no longer a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not a lot of years, so it&#8217;s going to hurt. The Jays should have been in there and weren&#8217;t. Edwin Encarnacion is a star, and now he&#8217;s going to be one for the Indians.</p>
<p>It can be tough to put into words what players like Encarnacion (and the yet-to-sign Jose Bautista) mean to a franchise. Over the last five years, we have watched him hit, and hit, and hit. Since 2012, Edwin Encarnacion owns a line of .272/.367/.544 with 193 home runs, 550 RBI and 145 doubles. Heck, he even threw in 27 stolen bases for good measure. The man has been an offensive machine.</p>
<p>It’s been more than that, though. When he first arrived as a throw-in as part of the Scott Rolen trade who couldn&#8217;t really play third base, nobody was thinking of Edwin Encarnacion as a long term fixture in this city. But along the way, he became one of <em>our guys</em>. We watched him blossom into a man with who hit so many home runs that he developed a unique trot. He became the man we counted on to produce when the game was on the line. Think of some of the most memorable events of the last few years. How many involved Edwin Encarnacion?</p>
<p>There were countless times when Edwin was the star for this team, but three games stick out specifically. The first came in 2015 when he caused hats to rain down from the stands, debuting a uniquely Canadian way to celebrate a three home run game at home (Donaldson matched it this year).</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=425866483&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<p>Then later in the year we saw him send a ball soaring into the night against Cole Hamels in the ALDS. It gave us hope in a game that was in doubt. That game-tying home run set the stage for the famous Bat Flip and all the drama that unfolded in the seventh inning of Game 5.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=523041283&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<p>And most recently, in what felt like his crescendo as a Blue Jay, Edwin crushed a ball against Ubaldo Jimenez to propel the Blue Jays through the Wild Card and into an ALDS rematch against the hated Rangers. He raised his arms in triumph, and we were right there with him.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1202715383&amp;topic_id=11493214&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<p>It was perfect.</p>
<p>In fact, it felt complete. If Encarnacion was going to leave, at least he gave us that moment. That feeling. He allowed us to imagine that we could make peace with seeing him in another uniform, knowing we would remember how happy he made us in Blue Jays blue. Now we&#8217;re going to put that theory to the test.</p>
<p>Of course, that’s not to say it has always been rosy. Fans used to call him “E5” derisively to mock his defensive troublse, he was waived in 2011, and there’s the <a title="TMZ Reports that Edwin Encarnacion is Being Sued" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/22/tmz-reports-that-edwin-encarnacion-is-being-sued/" target="_blank">ugliness of his pending lawsuit</a>, which should not be ignored.</p>
<p>But on the ball field, Edwin Encarnacion is as good as they come. He&#8217;s not going to New York or Boston, which should at least be of some comfort, but he will now anchor the middle of what should be a very potent Cleveland lineup. Flanked in the order by elite hitters Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, and Carlos Santana, Edwin should continue to rack up the counting stats and while he walks the parrot around Cleveland. With this signing, a very good opponent just got much better, which means the Blue Jays road to the post season also became a lot tougher.</p>
<p>Reading that is going anger a lot of people, and the sting could last for a good, long while, but as Jenn Smith <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/this-week-in-blue-jays/" target="_blank">recently so rightly opined</a>, the cure for all of this is winning. That means Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro need to get to work. The Morales signing was a start, but he doesn&#8217;t come close to replacing the void left by Encarnacion&#8217;s production, let alone Bautista and Saunders. There&#8217;s nobody left out there who can do it alone, so the club will have to do it by committee. There are still lineup holes at first base (sort of &#8211; don&#8217;t try to tell me that Justin Smoak is a viable strong side of a platoon with Pearce), left field, and right field. If the front office folk can find meaningful upgrades at each spot, they can mitigate the loss of the superstar first baseman/DH. If not, this team will once again be back in the &#8220;if everything breaks right&#8221; mode, which nobody wants.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s time to step up, Atkins and Shapiro. We&#8217;ve gotten used to winning, and we&#8217;re not ready to stop now.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays vs. Cleveland: ALCS Game 2 Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/15/blue-jays-vs-cleveland-alcs-game-2-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/15/blue-jays-vs-cleveland-alcs-game-2-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2016 16:37:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7491</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland Saturday October 15th, 2016 Written by Matt Gwin and Evan Peaslee Not only was Game 1 of the ALCS unfortunate, but it was also the Blue Jays&#8217; first loss of the 2016 post season. What&#8217;s more is that it&#8217;s a game that they probably didn&#8217;t deserve to lose. Early on against Corey [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays @ Cleveland</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Saturday October 15th, 2016</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Matt Gwin and Evan Peaslee</em></p>
<p>Not only was Game 1 of the ALCS unfortunate, but it was also the Blue Jays&#8217; first loss of the 2016 post season. What&#8217;s more is that it&#8217;s a game that they probably didn&#8217;t deserve to lose. Early on against Corey Kluber, the Jays had him on the ropes. In particular, Josh Donaldson and Edwin Encarnacion were pinging hits off of the Cleveland ace. However, the Jays couldn&#8217;t once bring any of those baserunners around to score, and ended with nine stranded baserunners on the night.</p>
<p>With that said, the ALCS is far from over. With Corey Kluber now out of the way, the Blue Jays will likely have the starting pitching advantage the rest of the way. On Saturday, it will be J.A. Happ vs. Josh Tomlin. On Monday, it will be Marcus Stroman vs. (a hampered) Trevor Bauer. Then, on Tuesday, it will be Aaron Sanchez vs. Mike Clevinger in a bullpen game. Following that, the rotation will reset, but (hopefully) the Jays will have won at least two of the three games, and the advantage that Kluber will have in his second ALCS start won&#8217;t matter quite so much.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>First Pitch – 4:08 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>J.A. Happ</strong></p>
<p>Happ is coming off of a consistently inconsistent end to the 2016 season. Since August, he&#8217;s had five starts with more than a strikeout per inning. However, he&#8217;s also had just as many starts with less than half a strikeout per inning. In some ways, we saw that consistent inconsistency in Happ&#8217;s last start, against the Texas Rangers. He was locating well for the most part, and that resulted in a strong strikeout to walk rate, and zero home runs. However, his stuff was more hittable than normal, and his pitch mix was strongly varied from his seasonal averages.</p>
<p>In particular, per <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=457918&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=game&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=pcount&amp;s_type=2&amp;endDate=10/15/2016&amp;startDate=10/03/2016" target="_blank">Brooks Baseball</a>, Happ didn&#8217;t throw a single slider, and instead replaced the pitch with quite a few more cutters. Traditionally, the cutter is a whiff pitch; something with a similar velocity to the four seam fastball, but a little more bite. For Happ in 2016, that held true. However, what also held true for the pitch was a higher than average line drive rate. On the cutter, J.A. Happ gave up 42% line drives, compared to an average of 26% among all other pitches. While he may be able to catch a couple of Cleveland&#8217;s hitters off balance with the pitch on Saturday, he&#8217;ll have to make sure that the offering is at its best.</p>
<p>As for the particular matchup, there have been a couple of posts over the last week highlighting just how J.A. Happ, and the Blue Jays, stack up against Cleveland&#8217;s lineup. First, FanGraphs&#8217; Eno Sarris wrote on, &#8220;<a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/torontos-advantage-against-cleveland/" target="_blank">Toronto&#8217;s advantage against Cleveland</a>.&#8221; What he found is that the Indians have been one of the worst fastball hitting teams in baseball. Meanwhile, J.A. Happ throws more than 75% fastballs. Then, FanGraphs&#8217; <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/one-counterpoint-to-torontos-fastball-advantage/" target="_blank">August Fagerstorm provided a counterpoint to Eno&#8217;s hypothesis</a>, illustrating that it is high-velocity fastballs that Cleveland&#8217;s team has struggled with, not the somewhat lower velocity variety that Happ uses. It&#8217;s possible that velocity is driving Cleveland&#8217;s poor fastball hitting&#8230;maybe they can&#8217;t catch up to high heat. However, it&#8217;s also possible that it&#8217;s good fastballs that are driving their poor performances. High velocity tends to be correlated with above average fastballs, but that&#8217;s not always the case, as we&#8217;ve seen with J.A. Happ and Marco Estrada. Estrada seemed to work fine with his on Friday, and we&#8217;ll have to wait and see how Happ does on Saturday.</p>
<p><strong>Josh Tomlin</strong></p>
<p>Josh Tomlin is a decidedly average major league starting pitcher. His velocity is nothing remarkable, with an average fastball velocity of 89 MPH, and a peak of 91. He had an ERA of 4.40, just barely above the major league aggregate of 4.21. The high ERA is mostly fuelled by Josh Tomlin&#8217;s propensity to give up the long ball. Among qualified major league starters, he had <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=sta&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=8&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2016&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=11,d" target="_blank">the second highest home run rate</a>, only below James Shields&#8217; 1.98 HR/9.</p>
<p>The only thing that keeps Tomlin close to an average major league level, and away from being a AAA starter, is his control. Again among qualified major league starters, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=sta&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=y&amp;type=1&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2016&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=8,a" target="_blank">Josh Tomlin had the lowest walk rate</a>, a marked improvement over his home run woes. Beyond that, his only other saving grace is a recent trend towards an increase in ground balls.</p>
<p>Against some major league offences, Josh Tomlin&#8217;s control heavy style might work. However, most major league offences aren&#8217;t the Toronto Blue Jays, who at 10.1% had the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=al&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2016&amp;month=0&amp;season1=2016&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=8,d" target="_blank">highest walk rate in the American League</a>. That number was leagues above the next highest American League team, which was the Astros at 8.9%. The patience in Toronto&#8217;s lineup should be able to mitigate Tomlin&#8217;s zone heavy pitching style. A few home runs within the first third of the game will go a long way to getting Tomlin out of the game early, and starting to tax Cleveland&#8217;s bullpen.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Josh Donaldson</strong></p>
<p>After a slow September that saw his batting average drop 12 points, Donaldson is raking in the postseason. The reigning MVP is slashing an absurd .500/.522/1.249 with five runs scored and will look to continue his postseason dominance against Cleveland starter Josh Tomlin. Donaldson has a career .400 batting average against the right-hander, including a single RBI, albeit in just five at-bats. With his hip issues seemingly in the past this should be a fun matchup to watch.</p>
<p><strong>The Use of Andrew Miller</strong></p>
<p>Miller has morphed into the ultimate shutdown man out of the bullpen for Cleveland, providing multiple innings of work in the late innings to bridge the gap to Cody Allen and Bryan Shaw. After pitching 1.2 innings in Game One and throwing 31 pitches, it’ll be interesting to see how manager Terry Francona utilizes his lefty weapon. Only twice all season has Miller come into the game a day after pitching more than an inning. In both cases he threw less than 24 pitches in his first day of work. Having three full days off entering the ALCS, Francona likely won’t hesitate to go to Miller in Game Two if he needs him, but it’s a storyline to watch as the series progresses.<br />
<strong><br />
The Blue Jays lineup</strong></p>
<p>John Gibbons is a manager who once he finds a lineup that works will stick to it until it doesn’t work anymore. With Russel Martin struggling all postseason in the five-hole, it’ll be interesting to see if Gibbons bumps Troy Tulowitzki ahead of him at some point. The man fans refer to simply as Tulo is batting .333 with an OPS of .905 including two extra-base hits and five RBIs in the postseason. Martin on the other hand has one solitary hit to his name, albeit a home run, and has an OPS of .350. Adding to the situation that throughout his career Tulowitzki has been a superior hitter to Martin will make it harder for Gibbons to stick to his tried and true lineup if Martin continues to struggle.</p>
<p><b>UPDATE: </b>Tulowitzki is indeed batting 5th today.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>Toronto’s ideal starting lineup took a big blow in Friday’s series opener with the injury to Devon Travis. Although cleared by team doctors to return, Travis lasted just five innings before re-injuring his right knee while running to cover first base. The sophomore second baseman looked dejected in his postgame scrum and it would appear that a return to the Jays’ lineup in the near future is unlikely. Travis will undergo an MRI to determine the full extent of his injury.</p>
<p>Taking his place will be the combination of Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins. The duo combined to hit .236 on the season and will be unable to replace Travis’ bat in the lineup. Defensively, however, both are an improvement on a hobbled Travis. If Game One is any indication expect Jays’ manager John Gibbons to play the matchup game with these two. Barney is 3-for-4 against Tomlin lifetime and will likely be taking Travis’ place in the starting lineup on Saturday.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Indians</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Ezequiel Carrera &#8211; LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Santana &#8211; DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jason Kipnis &#8211; 2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion &#8211; 1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Francisco Lindor &#8211; SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Bautista &#8211; RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Mike Napoli &#8211; 1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki &#8211; SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Ramirez &#8211; 3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin &#8211; C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Lonnie Chisenhall &#8211; RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders &#8211; DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Coco Crisp &#8211; LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Tyler Naquin &#8211; CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Darwin Barney &#8211; 2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Roberto Perez &#8211; C</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays have the advantage in pitching matchups in the next three games, so taking Game Two will go a long way towards setting themselves up for a successful series. The key for them will be getting to Tomlin early and grabbing some hits with runners in scoring position. Something the offense failed to capitalize on in Game One, spoiling an impressive night by Marco Estrada.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Charley LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Shapiro Bowl: Indians Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/30/the-shapiro-bowl-indians-series-preview/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/30/the-shapiro-bowl-indians-series-preview/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 30 Jun 2016 20:03:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays Thursday, June 30th &#8211; Sunday, July 3rd The Blue Jays begin their Canada Day encompassing four-game set against the hottest team in baseball: the Cleveland Indians. You read that correct. The Indians have been on a torrid pace of late, winning their last 12 games. The streak&#8211;which dates back to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Cleveland Indians @ Toronto Blue Jays</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">Thursday, June 30th &#8211; Sunday, July 3rd</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays begin their Canada Day encompassing four-game set against the hottest team in baseball: the Cleveland Indians.</p>
<p>You read that correct. The Indians have been on a torrid pace of late, winning their last 12 games. The streak&#8211;which dates back to June 17th&#8211;has taken the Indians from a dead heat for first in the AL Central to six games up on the reigning World Series champions, the Kansas City Royals. They&#8217;ve out scored the four opponents they&#8217;ve faced 76-25 over the streak. That&#8217;s a run differential that computes to&#8211;and we&#8217;re being precise here&#8211;a Pythagorean win expectation of&#8230; Very Good.</p>
<p>The Indians head into Thursday&#8217;s opener with an identical record to the Baltimore Orioles and a .610 winning percentage. So as not to elaborate further: the Blue Jays have their work cut out for them.</p>
<p>Heading out of Colorado, the Blue Jays must look to avoid the Coors Field hangover that is caused by the thin air, and not the light, easy-drinking beverage. You may wish to call your local Toronto meteorologist and request a lack of humidity. Because, yes, that is how the weather works. I&#8217;ve consulted with one of North America&#8217;s foremost meteorologists who has confirmed this definitely not true story.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>Thursday, June 30 &#8211; 7:07 PM</h4>
<p><strong>Carlos Carrasco vs. R.A. Dickey</strong></p>
<p>Not to sound like a broken record, but R.A. Dickey continues to do R.A. Dickey things on the mound this season and continues to be a reliable option at the back of the Blue Jay rotation. While he struggled with the long ball (four homers allowed) in his last start against Chicago, he limited to the damage to six hits and five runs (four earned) over 5.1 innings of work. For the season, R.A. is right around where we expected him to be pitching to a 4.23 ERA over 95.2 innings. While it’s hard to tell how exactly Dickey will fare from start to start, his assignment in the series opener, combined with the knuckleball hangover effect (if you believe in it) may bode well for Marcus Stroman, who takes the hill on Canada Day the following afternoon.</p>
<p>After losing six weeks due to injury, Carlos Carrasco turned in the best performance of his season last weekend against Detroit. Last Saturday’s complete game shutout of the Tigers was Carrasco’s fifth start since returning from a stint on the disabled list with an injured hamstring and it lowered his season ERA to 2.73. While he has displayed elite peripheral numbers over the past three seasons, this season, this his peripherals have been slightly worse than you would expect for a pitcher of his caliber – his strikeout rate is down to 7.88 per nine innings (from last season’s 10.58) and his 3.65 DRA is fueled by a 91.3% Left on Base Rate that suggests he may have been somewhat lucky in his first nine starts. These results more than likely have to do with his abbreviated and interrupted schedule than it does anything else; expect Carrasco to be good when he takes the mound at the Rogers Centre Thursday.</p>
<h4>Friday, July 1st – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Josh Tomlin vs. Marcus Stroman</strong></p>
<p>Marcus Stroman continues his quest to break out of a mini-slump on Friday afternoon after another lackluster start against Chicago last Sunday. Stro surrendered four runs on seven hits and four walks in his last outing and says that while the results weren’t there, he did feel better. And while he was by no means dominant, he was admittedly dinked and dunked at least a few times in the start. While he has been hit hard of late, look for Stroman to adjust his pitch mix and location (I’m sure you’ve heard everyone screaming to keep those sinkers down in the zone). Stro comes into the start with a 5.33 ERA on the season.</p>
<p>When it comes to raw stuff, Josh Tomlin is the least intimidating starter that Blue Jays hitters will see in the weekend. Tomlin relies heavily on a fastball/cutter combination with a curveball (12 percent of the time) and changeup (8 percent of the time) mixed in. Tomlin’s fastball also only has an average velocity of 87.7 miles per hour, so location is paramount give his lack of swing and miss stuff. Tomlin has been able to minimize the damage against him largely due to a 0.81 BB/9 this season, which has led to a 9-1 record and 3.32 ERA. Given some of the tough assignments the Jays lineup will tackle, putting the screws to Tomlin would go a long way in ensuring success against the first place Indians.</p>
<h4>Saturday, July 2nd – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Trevor Bauer vs. Marco Estrada</strong></p>
<p>Marco Estrada continued his dominant 2016 about as well as one could have expected when forced to start at Coors Field. All of the damage came off the bat of Carlos Gonzalez, and despite allowing three runs in six innings of work, Estrada kept the powerful Rockies offence at bay and the Blue Jays in the game. In addition to generating pop ups and weak contact, Estrada continues to generate more swings and misses than previous seasons, posting a K/9 of 8.34 this season. In Estrada’s only start against Cleveland last season, he held the Indians to two runs on five hits in seven innings of work. And speaking of five hits, Estrada looks to continue his MLB record streak of starts in which he throws six innings and allows five or fewer hits to 13 straight this weekend.</p>
<p>Marco Estrada’s mound opponent, Trevor Bauer, currently sits in sixth place, right behind Estrada, on the American League ERA leaderboard, with a season mark of 3.19. After struggling in both Arizona and Cleveland (where he has pitched for three seasons), the former third overall pick appears to be finally putting things together. Bauer’s breakout is largely based on limiting his free passes and an increasing his ground ball rate. Bauer has decreased his BB/9 from 4.04 to 2.99 and his increased his GB% from 39.2% to 50%, taking advantage of Cleveland’s strong infield defense in the process.</p>
<h4>Saturday, July 2nd – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p><strong>Corey Kluber vs. J.A. Happ</strong></p>
<p>J.A. Happ takes the ball in series finale for Toronto on Sunday afternoon. Like most pitchers, Happ struggled last time out against the Rockies at Coors Field. High altitude aside, Happ has pitched well this season, taking a 3.70 ERA into the weekend. While early on this season, Happ was generating more ground balls and fewer strikeouts than previous seasons, he seems to be slowly regressing to his career norms, as his groundball rate now sits at 43% on the season (last season’s was 41.6%). Oddly enough, Happ appears to be showing a bit of a reverse platoon split this season, with a slash line of .273/.356/.391 against left-handed hitters (with righties hitting only .240/.299/.421). Terry Francona is limited in the left-handed options he has available to him, so if the trend continues, this may work to the Blue Jays advantage.</p>
<p>The 2014 Cy Young winner continues to pitch well for Cleveland this season, taking an 8-7 record and 3.50 ERA into his weekend assignment. While Kluber truly is one of the better starting pitchers in the American League, he is prone to the occasional blowup start – he has made four starts already this season where he allowed five or more runs, most recently against Kansas City on June 15. And speaking of said starts, Kluber faced the Blue Jays once last season, surrendering five runs on eight hits in five innings pitched.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>He&#8217;s baaack. Squints! Brett Cecil has been activated from the 15-day DL after missing over a month with a tear in his lat. The lefty struggled in the early parts of the season, but if he can put up numbers anything close to what he has provided over the last few years, John Gibbons is going to be thrilled. Left-handers have been a big problem for the Jays this year, so Cecil will be a big help. To make room on the roster, Ryan Tepera has been sent back to Buffalo. We could be seeing the return of another lefty soon, as Franklin Morales is almost finished <em>his</em> rehab sting in triple-A.</p>
<p>Despite no changes in the last week, the Indians are still dealing with an extremely weakened outfield. Thanks to a lingering injury to Michael Brantley and suspensions for Abraham Almonte and Marlon Byrd, the Indians are playing with an outfield made entirely of backups. Lonnie Chisenhall is a transplanted third baseman, Rajai Davis we all know, and Tyler Naquin is a former first round pick who made his major league debut in April. They continue to make it work though. Naquin leads the team in average, on-base, <em>and</em> slugging, and Chisenhall and Davis are more than holding their own.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Ross Atkins<br />
</strong><br />
The Cleveland Professional Baseball Team will feel the wrath of their former front office employee! This is the first time Toronto will face the Indians since Shapiro poached their executive as the newest Blue Jays general manager. I&#8217;d definitely look for Atkins to play with a bit more swagger in his step than usual. And by that, I mean the players under Atkins will all feel their general manager&#8217;s presence and play with their own slightly less but evenly-distributed swagger. I like to call it trickle-down swagger.</p>
<p><strong>Canada Day</strong></p>
<p>As you may have heard, it&#8217;s Canada Day this Friday. It&#8217;s a pretty good day filled with no work, baseball, and something to do with hockey I think as well. Anywho, that Steven Stamkos guy already re-signed with one of those Florida teams, so there&#8217;s no reason for you to pay attention to that last thing on the list.</p>
<p>Instead, be a patriot and root, root, root for the home team Blue Jays. They&#8217;ll be wearing slick jerseys and disgusting hats. As an added bonus, the visiting American team won&#8217;t have the unfortunate position of having to awkwardly wear their Independence Day gear while in another country. That holiday is on Monday, and the Cleveland Clevelanders will be in Detroit instead.</p>
<p><strong>The Uncle at your Canada Day barbecue that thinks Chief Wahoo Isn&#8217;t a racist logo</strong></p>
<p>Seriously though, keep an eye on this guy. The Cleveland Indians&#8217; current name and logo is very bad and most fans thankfully know it. The logo is in the process of getting grandfathered out it seems, which is a good sign.</p>
<p>Instead of calling them by their unfortunate name, we here at BP Toronto would like to present these alternatives: the Cleveland Clevelanders, the Cleveland Spiders, the Cleveland Infants, the Cleveland LeBrons, the Cleveland Rocks, the Cleveland Drew Careys, the Cleveland Paul Newmans, the Cleveland Baseball Browns, the Cleveland Rough Riders, the Cleveland Roughriders, The Cleveland We Could Use Yan Gomes Backs, the Cleveland Parks Are Called Malls And Malls Are Called Arcades, The Cleveland Aquarium From Finding Dorys, and, finally, the Cleveland We&#8217;re Sorrys.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Cleveland Indians</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Ezequiel Carrera-RF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">1 Carlos Santana-DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Devon Travis-2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">2 Jason Kipnis-2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Josh Donaldson-3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">3 Francisco Lindor-SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Edwin Encarnacion-1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">4 Mike Napoli-1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Michael Saunders-LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">5 Jose Ramirez-3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Justin Smoak-DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">6 Lonnie Chisenhall-LF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Troy Tulowitzki-SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">7 Yan Gomes-C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Russell Martin-C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">8 Tyler Naquin-CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Kevin Pillar-CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">9 Pitcher</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>It&#8217;ll be a weekend of fireworks for sure, with hopefully a few coming as a result of the Blue Jays bats. It&#8217;ll be a tough series, but the Jays and their fans are hoping for a split at the bare minimum.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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