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	<title>Toronto &#187; Houston Astros</title>
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		<title>Blue Jays Trade Liriano to Astros for Aoki &amp; Hernández</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/francisco-liriano-astros/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/francisco-liriano-astros/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 31 Jul 2017 17:27:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Francisco Liriano]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12669</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays are on the verge of trading Fransisco Liriano to the Houston Astros according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The deal is not yet office, and the return is not yet known. It is expected that the Blue Jays will pick up Liriano&#8217;s salary in order to get a bigger return from Houston. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays are on the verge of trading Fransisco Liriano to the Houston Astros according to Bob Nightengale of USA Today. The deal is not yet office, and the return is not yet known. It is expected that the Blue Jays will pick up Liriano&#8217;s salary in order to get a bigger return from Houston.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> are on verge of acquiring Francisco Liriano from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Bluejays?src=hash">#Bluejays</a>, but deal not yet complete. <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal">@Ken_Rosenthal</a> 1st mentioned in talks</p>
<p>&mdash; Bob Nightengale (@BNightengale) <a href="https://twitter.com/BNightengale/status/892071059700232192">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Liriano, 33, has struggled in 2017, posting a 5.88 ERA across 82 2/3 innings pitched. He has posted his lowest K% since 2011 with a mark of 19.8%, although his BB% of 11.5% is right in the area he has been recently. Those baserunners have allowed more runs to score when he gives up big hits, including the 1.20 home runs per nine innings he has suffered this season. As such, Houston plans on using Liriano as a reliever, as first mentioned by <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/892068882961371138" target="_blank">Ken Rosenthal</a>. He is still holding lefties to a .230/.254.361 line and a 26.9% strikeout rate. More importantly, he has walked just one lefthanded batter in 63 plate appearances. That will play in any major league bullpen.</p>
<p>Jays fans, of course, will remember his shut down performance in last year&#8217;s wild card game after coming over as a deadline acquisition along with Reese McGuire and Harold Ramirez for Drew Hutchison. Without his performance down the stretch and the 1 2/3 innings in that fateful game against Baltimore, we likely never experience the Edwin walkoff or the sweep of Texas. So while his time here was short, his impact was very large indeed.</p>
<p>Robert Murray of FanRag Sports was the <a href="https://twitter.com/RobertMurrayFRS/status/892039375059595265" target="_blank">first to report</a> Houston had interest.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE:</strong></p>
<p>Shi Davidi is now reporting that the piece is done, pending physicals.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> and <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> deal for Francisco Liriano is pending a physical. Sounds like an outfielder in coming back in return</p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/892073473559990272">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>We&#8217;ll continue to update this post as soon as we know more about this trade.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE #2:</strong></p>
<p>Astros reporter Brian McTaggart is reporting that the deal is indeed done.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Can confirm Astros have acquired LHP Liriano from Jays.</p>
<p>&mdash; Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) <a href="https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/892077284873654272">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p><strong>UPDATE #3: </strong></p>
<p>McTaggart is now reporting that the Jays are getting Nori Aoki and a minor leaguer in return. The 35-year old Aoki is currently hitting .272/.323/.371 (though his career OBP is .350) and has been an average to below average outfielder in his career. Whil he <em>is</em> controllable through 2018 through arbitration, Aoki is very much a non-tender candidate with a 2017 salary of $5.5M. The real return is likely the minor leaguer, with Aoki more that Jays taking on more salary to increase the value of the prospect.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: Astros are sending OF Nori Aoki and a Minor League player to the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>&mdash; Brian McTaggart (@brianmctaggart) <a href="https://twitter.com/brianmctaggart/status/892079904690507776">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p><strong>UPDATE #4:</strong></p>
<p>Well, this is why you take back Nori Aoki and his $5.5 million salary. According to Shi Davidi, the Blue Jays are getting Teoscar Hernández from the Astros, their ninth best prospect according to MLB Pipeline.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Minor-leaguer <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> getting from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Astros?src=hash">#Astros</a> is OF Teoscar Hernandez, per source</p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/892087202448068608">July 31, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Hernández is a speedy 24-year-old with average tools across the board otherwise. He was<a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=30867" target="_blank"> #9 on BP&#8217;s preseason top 10</a> Astros list, <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-houston-astros-midseason-top-10-prospects/#s5AtsFG3Fw8WgVWj.97" target="_blank">#8 on BA&#8217;s midseason list</a>, and <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=hou" target="_blank">MLB Pipeline grades him out</a> as  &#8220;Hit: 50 | Power: 50 | Run: 60 | Arm: 55 | Field: 55 | Overall: 50.&#8221; <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/majors/astros-add-francisco-liriano-as-reliever/#uz2qe5Gx9eK6w4LH.97" target="_blank">Baseball America also says</a> that &#8220;Hernandez is a versatile outfielder who has the speed and range to play above-average defense center field and the arm to be a plus defender in right&#8221; who &#8220;with a vastly improved two-strike approach and pitch recognition in 2016, Hernandez remade himself as a prospect, showing a significantly improved hit tool while losing little of his power.&#8221;</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a fine combination for a return on a Francisco Liriano deal. This season, Hernández is playing in AAA with the Fresno Grizzlies, and has hit .279/.369/.485 with 12 home runs and 12 stolen bases. The downside to Hernández is that he does strike out a bit, at 20.7% in 2017, but in today&#8217;s game, that is becoming more normalized. He can also play all three outfield spots (though is only passable in CF), making him a valuable piece to a big league roster. He appeared in 41 games for the Astros in 2016, batting .230/.304/.420 in 112 plate appearances.</p>
<p>This trade is a fantastic one for the Blue Jays in the end. Similarly to how they acquired Liriano last season, they have flexed their financial might and taken on (or retained) the salaries on a couple of players to acquire better assets in return. Hernández is a legitimate prospect and the Blue Jays did well in acquiring a player who can contribute in the future for a guy with only two months left on his contract.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Astros</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/06/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-astros/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/06/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-astros/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Jul 2017 14:55:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12220</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Matt Gwin, Elie Waitzer, and Richard Lee-Sam Big Power from Unlikely Places You&#8217;d be forgiven if you&#8217;d confused Houston with Australia. They&#8217;re both have dry, barren areas that surround them with a millions animals that could conceivably kill you. As well, what&#8217;s up is down and what&#8217;s down is up&#8230;at least in baseball terms. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Matt Gwin, Elie Waitzer, and Richard Lee-Sam</em></p>
<h4>Big Power from Unlikely Places</h4>
<p>You&#8217;d be forgiven if you&#8217;d confused Houston with Australia. They&#8217;re both have dry, barren areas that surround them with a millions animals that could conceivably kill you. As well, what&#8217;s up is down and what&#8217;s down is up&#8230;at least in baseball terms. By tAV, the Astros four best hitters this year are Marwin Gonzalez, Carlos Correa, Jose Altuve, and George Springer. The latter three are all up the middle players, fielding at shortstop, second base, and centre field respectively. Meanwhile, Marwin would&#8217;ve been an up the middle player, had he not been blocked at shortstop and second base by two perennial MVP vote getters. Instead, he&#8217;s out in left field.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s weird&#8230;right? Four up the middle-ish players who are also the four best hitters on their team. Meanwhile, the Astros&#8217; every day designated hitter, third baseman, and first baseman are in the latter half of the team&#8217;s tAV standings, with Alex Bregman (3B) and Carlos Beltran (DH) being the team&#8217;s two worst regular hitters. In recent years, we&#8217;ve seen a number of top hitters pop up at positions outside of 1B, but the Astros are an extreme example.</p>
<p>On average this is how a team ranks by tAV by position:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Screen-Shot-2017-07-05-at-10.42.55-PM.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12224" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Screen-Shot-2017-07-05-at-10.42.55-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-07-05 at 10.42.55 PM" width="104" height="180" /></a></p>
<p>You&#8217;ll note that 1B is expectedly at the top, followed expectedly by RF and 3B.</p>
<p>This is how the Astros regulars rank:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Screen-Shot-2017-07-05-at-10.49.06-PM.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12226" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Screen-Shot-2017-07-05-at-10.49.06-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-07-05 at 10.49.06 PM" width="107" height="180" /></a></p>
<p>It&#8217;s not a perfect mirror of the MLB average, but it&#8217;s pretty darn close.</p>
<p>This is how the Blue Jays regulars rank:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Screen-Shot-2017-07-05-at-10.50.51-PM.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-12227" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/07/Screen-Shot-2017-07-05-at-10.50.51-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-07-05 at 10.50.51 PM" width="106" height="181" /></a></p>
<p>The Blue Jays ranking follows substantially more in line with the MLB average. Justin Smoak and Josh Donaldson are at the top, while the trio of Kevin Pillar, Devon Travis, and Troy Tulowitzki round out the bottom third of the leaderboard. In other words, while we&#8217;ll watch Pillar, Tulowitzki, and the Goins/Barney platoon struggle to generate any power this weekend, their Astros counterparts will likely be driving Houston to victory. Bo Bichette Jr. can&#8217;t come soon enough.</p>
<h4>George Springer Leads Off With a Boom</h4>
<p>George Springer already has 25 homers batting leadoff for the Astros. If he keeps up that pace he will break Alfonso Soriano’s record of 39 leadoff homers in a single season. Slugging leadoff hitters are nothing new at this point. From Kyle Schwarber to Jose Bautista, you don’t need to be quick to bat first these days.</p>
<p>Thing is, though, Springer is quick. He hasn’t stolen a base yet this season, but he racked up 16 in a short 2015 season. Altuve and Correa get most of the attention, but at just 27 years old Springer is the key to the Astros’ deadly offence &#8211; and he’s doing things out of the leadoff spot that we’ve never seen before.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Things like: nine of those 25 leadoff homers have come in the first at-bat of the game. That’s tied for fourth-most all-time. Already. His .485 ISO as the first batter of the game is </span><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/play-index/split_finder.cgi?request=1&amp;match=season&amp;as=result_batter&amp;class=player&amp;offset=0&amp;type=b&amp;min_year_game=1913&amp;max_year_game=2017&amp;team_id=ANY&amp;min_season=1&amp;max_season=-1&amp;min_age=0&amp;max_age=99&amp;isActive=either&amp;bats=any&amp;split_1=situa%3Aleado&amp;sid_situa%3Atkswg=situa%3Atkswg%3Aany&amp;sid_situa%3Aleado=situa%3Aleado%3A1st+Batter+G&amp;sid_outcb%3Aoutcb=outcb%3Aoutcb%3Aany&amp;sid_oppon%3Aoppon=oppon%3Aoppon%3Aany&amp;sid_situa%3Atimes=situa%3Atimes%3Aany&amp;sid_plato%3Aplato=plato%3Aplato%3Aany&amp;sid_situa%3Abases=situa%3Abases%3Aany&amp;sid_defp%3Adefp=defp%3Adefp%3Aany&amp;sid_opptp%3Agbfb=opptp%3Agbfb%3Aany&amp;sid_plato%3Aplats=plato%3Aplats%3Aany&amp;sid_opptp%3Apower=opptp%3Apower%3Aany&amp;sid_hitty%3Atraj=hitty%3Atraj%3Aany&amp;sid_lineu%3Alineu=lineu%3Alineu%3ABatting+1st&amp;sid_age%3Aage=age%3Aage%3Aany&amp;sid_total%3Atotal=total%3Atotal%3Aany&amp;sid_dates%3Ahalf=dates%3Ahalf%3Aany&amp;sid_locat%3Astad=locat%3Astad%3Aany&amp;sid_situa%3Ainnng=situa%3Ainnng%3Aany&amp;sid_locat%3Asite=locat%3Asite%3Aany&amp;sid_dates%3Amonth=dates%3Amonth%3Aany&amp;sid_situa%3Acount=situa%3Acount%3Aany&amp;sid_situa%3Aouts=situa%3Aouts%3Aany&amp;sid_wpa%3Alever=wpa%3Alever%3Aany&amp;sid_locat%3Ahmvis=locat%3Ahmvis%3Aany&amp;sid_role%3Astsub=role%3Astsub%3Aany&amp;sid_hitty%3Ahitlo=hitty%3Ahitlo%3Aany&amp;sid_situa%3Aclutc=situa%3Aclutc%3Aany&amp;exclude_incomplete=1&amp;c0gtlt=gt&amp;c1criteria=G&amp;c1gtlt=gt&amp;c1val=50&amp;c2gtlt=gt&amp;c3gtlt=gt&amp;c4gtlt=gt&amp;c5gtlt=gt&amp;c5val=1.0&amp;location=pob&amp;locationMatch=is&amp;orderby=isolated_slugging_perc&amp;sr_split_totals_choice=by_split&amp;number_matched=1"><span style="font-weight: 400">second all-time</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400"> to Brady Anderson. If you thought Mookie Betts was trouble, you won’t have to wait long to find out what George Springer can do.</span></p>
<h4>Something&#8217;s Heating Up in Texas</h4>
<p>Think back to five seasons ago. Do you remember anything about the Astros? Of course not. They were awful. Playing their final year in the National League, they were in the midst of their second of three straight 100-loss seasons. Their intentional tanking to produce high draft picks and quality talent left them an average 42.3 games back over the course of those three seasons.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In 2017, it&#8217;s an entire different ballgame in Texas. Houston is 16 games up on the second place Los Angeles Angels in the AL West. Barring a miracle, the Astros should coast to the division title this fall. Assuming their lead holds, they will be going into the All-Star break with <a href="https://twitter.com/baseball_ref/status/882701544273178624" target="_blank">one of the largest division leads in history</a>.  It looks like the state of Texas finally has a legitimate shot of bringing a championship home.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400"> Going into yesterday’s game, the Astros as a team have slashed a ridiculous .281/.351/.492 on the season, and their .843 OPS is actually better than the second half OPS of the baseball-mashing 2015 Blue Jays, who </span><i><span style="font-weight: 400">only</span></i><span style="font-weight: 400"> posted a mark of .829. The Astros are so frightening right now that they even forgot how to strike out. In 2015, when they made the ALDS, the Astros saw success despite striking out 22.9% of the time, good enough for the second highest mark</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> in the league. In 2016, that number creeped up to 23.4%. Where do they rank this season? The Astros are striking out in only 17.3% of their plate appearances at a time when strikeouts are up throughout baseball. That&#8217;s how you have success. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">What does that mean for the Blue Jays? Well, their pitchers will have their hands full this weekend with an Astros lineup ready to hammer any mistake they make.</span></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 9, Astros 2; Stro Show Dominates the &#8216;Stros</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/14/recap-blue-jays-9-astros-2-stro-show-dominates-the-stros/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/14/recap-blue-jays-9-astros-2-stro-show-dominates-the-stros/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Aug 2016 20:33:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5526</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[A half-game up in the AL East standings, the Toronto Blue Jays took to the field today looking for a series win against the Houston Astros, with Marcus Stroman taking the mound against Mike Fiers. The Jays played a little small-ball early, when a lead-off double by Devon Travis came around to score after a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>A half-game up in the AL East standings, the Toronto Blue Jays took to the field today looking for a series win against the Houston Astros, with Marcus Stroman taking the mound against Mike Fiers. The Jays played a little small-ball early, when a lead-off double by Devon Travis came around to score after a sacrifice bunt and single to give the Jays an early 1-0 lead. The Astros got that run right back in the top of the second when Stroman, trying to do just a bit too much, made a poor fielding decision that cost him an unearned run.The two teams traded outs until the bottom of the fourth when Darrell Ceciliani drove home Troy Tulowitzki with a two-out double to single to right to put the Jays up 2-1. The Jays&#8217; party really got started in the bottom of the fifth, when Troy Tulowitzki and Russell Martin crushed back-to-back jacks for a 5-2 Jays lead.</p>
<p>The Stro Show was indeed on display today. Stroman had his stuff working, spotting his cutter and blowing his fastball by hitters. His one mistake of the game came in the seventh inning when he surrendered a lead-off home run to Jason Castro. He&#8217;d leave the game after 6 1/3 innings, giving up just one earned run on five hits with eight strike outs and no walks. Joaquin Benoit entered the game in relief, promptly serving up singles to Tony Kemp and George Springer. He&#8217;d get out of the inning unscathed, however, thanks in part to this spectacular catch by Russell Martin:</p>
<iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1050340783&amp;topic_id=8877962&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" ></iframe>
<p>However, the Jays&#8217; offense wasn&#8217;t done scoring. Edwin Encarnacion knocked his 33rd home run of the season in the seventh, and more small ball led to three more runs in the eighth. When the dust had settled, the Jays had scored nine runs on 12 hits, looking once again like an offense to be feared.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With the Jays up by just one run in the fifth inning, Edwin Encarnacion doubled to centre field with one out. After Michael Saunders fouled out to third, Troy Tulowitzki came to the plate and belted a two-run shot 406 feet to left centre field, providing the top play of the game by WPA (.175).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With the scored tied at one run apiece in the bottom of the fourth inning, Troy Tulowitzki singled to right followed by a walk to Russell Martin. That brought the struggling Justin Smoak to the plate, who struck out swinging. Though it ultimately didn&#8217;t matter with respect to the outcome of the game, it was the bottom play by WPA (-.062).</p>
<h3>Darrell Ceciliani Knocks Home his First RBI as a Blue Jay</h3>
<p>Ceciliani, who was enjoying a productive offensive season when called up from Buffallo to replace Jose Bautista, posted his first Blue Jays RBI today when his two-out double scored Tulowitzki. Part of the bottom third of the order that has, quite simply, been unproductive, one hopes that Ceciliani can start swinging a hot bat to help turn the lineup over.</p>
<h3>Rotation on Extra Rest</h3>
<p>Since moving to a six-man rotation, the starters&#8217; results have been mixed, causing concern amongst some about the effects of extra rest on a pitcher&#8217;s routine. This time through the rotation, however, Jays starters have tossed 34.1 innings with a 3.67 ERA and a 1.13 WHIP, giving up three home runs and 14 walks with 34 strike outs. Though it&#8217;s still too early to draw any conclusions, things are trending in the right direction. (H/t to @james_in_to for the stats.)</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays head off to the Big Apple to begin a three-game series against the New York Yankees on Monday. The Yankees, who have undergone significant roster changes in the last two weeks, have yet to set their rotation for the series. R.A. Dickey will take the mound tomorrow to face several Yankees&#8217; rookies. First pitch flies at 7:05 PM ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 4, Astros 2; Martin Mashes To Tie Up The Series</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/13/recap-blue-jays-4-astros-2-martin-mashes-to-tie-up-the-series/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 14 Aug 2016 00:02:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5504</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On a thunderous day in Toronto, the Rogers Centre crowd were treated to few fireworks- until the 6th inning, when Russell Martin stepped up to the plate. The Jays outlook went from bleak to bright after Martin crushed a full count, two out offering from reliever James Hoyt to dead centre, scoring three. Prior to that, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On a thunderous day in Toronto, the Rogers Centre crowd were treated to few fireworks- until the 6th inning, when Russell Martin stepped up to the plate. The Jays outlook went from bleak to bright after Martin crushed a full count, two out offering from reliever James Hoyt to dead centre, scoring three. Prior to that, Sanchez had trouble getting out of the first inning. Uncharacteristically, Aaron allowed a single and two doubles which scored two runs, putting the Jays down before having a chance to swing the bats. The blow from Martin turned out to be deadly, as setup man Jason Grilli and closer Roberto Osuna came on and closed the game out quite smoothly. Josh Donaldson was the cause of the other Blue Jays run, hitting a solo shot in the first inning to centre. Donaldson is continuing to put his name in the conversation for the league MVP.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The top play was the aforementioned home run by Russell Martin to swing the Jays around and ultimately clinch the win. Martin laid off a close pitch on a 2-0 count which allowed him to be selective and put pressure on Hoyt to hit the zone. On the full count, Martin crushed a hanging slider to dead centre cashing three. Russell added 0.416 WPA by hitting that home run alone.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The worst play of the game is awarded to Houston catcher Evan Gattis. In the 6th as well, Gattis found himself facing Sanchez with one man on and one out. At this time, the Astros were still up by one run and trying to extend their lead. Gattis ended up grounding into an inning ending double play. Gattis only decreased the Astros chance to win by -0.057 WPA, which is not an insanely significant margin.</p>
<h3>Sanchez Continues to Look Strong</h3>
<p>Sanchez had trouble in the first but appeared to find the groove he has been in all season long after that. During the rest of his six innings, he only allowed four base runners in total; three of them via a walk. When all was said and done, Aaron went 7.0 innings, giving up five hits, three walks, two runs and striking out six. He appeared to be pulling the ball off the plate a little more than we usually see. It is encouraging to see Sanchez be able to limit the opposition to two runs while not executing his pitches as well as we have become accustomed to.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Devon Travis didn&#8217;t have a hit today, going 0-4, but continue to watch the Jays young second baseman coming down the final stretch of the season. His performance this season has been tremendous and if the Jays want to build a lead atop the AL East, Travis will need to maintain his high level of play. His defense was never considered to be above average until this season where it has been exceptional. Before his shoulder injury in 2015, the league got a glimpse of what Travis could do offensively, now he is also showcasing his defensive skills.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays play the rubber match of this series against Houston on Sunday at 1:07 pm when Marcus Stroman takes the hill. After that, they head to New York for a weekday series against the A-Rod-less Yankees.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Rocket Men: Astros Series Preview</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/12/rocket-men-astros-series-preview/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Aug 2016 15:24:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=5407</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros August 12 &#8211; 14 Written by Gideon Turk and Dave Church Only a week removed from their trip to Houston, the Blue Jays are returning the favor and inviting the Astros to the Rogers Centre for a three game tilt. The Blue Jays ended up taking three of four from [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h2 style="text-align: center">Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros</h2>
<h3 style="text-align: center">August 12 &#8211; 14</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/gideonturk/">Gideon Turk</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/davidchurch/">Dave Church</a></em></p>
<p>Only a week removed from their trip to Houston, the Blue Jays are returning the favor and inviting the Astros to the Rogers Centre for a three game tilt. The Blue Jays ended up taking three of four from the Astros in the four game series despite scoring only ten runs in the four games. Their pitching, which has been excellent all year, carried them by allowing only four runs in the six games. Both the Jays and the Astros have shuffled their roster a bit in the ensuing seven days, so let&#8217;s take a look at what&#8217;s changed for this matchup.</p>
<h3>Pitching Matchups:</h3>
<h4>August 12 – 7:07 PM ET</h4>
<p>Francisco Liriano vs. Joe Musgrove</p>
<p>Francisco Liriano is making his second start for the Blue Jays after being acquired at the deadline. His first start was promising, allowing three runs (two earned) over six solid innings, striking out five. While a reunion with Russell Martin probably didn&#8217;t hurt, Liriano&#8217;s problem this season has been his control: he&#8217;s walking more hitters, which was always his problem prior to joining the Pirates. He struggled at times with the Royals in locating his fastball in the zone, which led him a bit of trouble in the middle innings, though the Royals were mostly unable to make him pay. One other positive sign from that start: fewer grooved pitches in the middle of the zone, especially with his fastball.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-5465" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1024x683.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Joe Musgrove is already infamous to Blue Jays fans, having pitched four and a thirds innings of scoreless relief and striking out eight in the lone loss in the last Astros series. Jays fans may also know him from the J.A. Happ trade, as he was one of several players sent to the Astros for Happ in 2013. Musgrove is an opposite to Liriano in many ways: though his stuff is good, it&#8217;s his command and control that are the highlights, as he had a fantastic 87 Ks against 10 walks in 16 minor league appearances this season (and a 14/1 ratio so far in the majors in two appearances). This could be a difficult matchup for a Jays lineup that likes to draw walks and make pitchers work.</p>
<h4>August 13 – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p>Aaron Sanchez vs. Collin McHugh</p>
<p>With the debate about whether or not Aaron Sanchez should go to the bullpen having quieted for now, we can focus more on how great Aaron Sanchez has been. His last start against the Royals wasn&#8217;t up to his usual standards, as he allowed nine hits, the most he&#8217;s allowed since June 12. These starts have been few and far between for Sanchez this year: he&#8217;s only allowed nine hits or more three times in 22 starts, and four runs or more four times. Sanchez has yet to face the Astros this year, and with his stuff, has an excellent matchup against a team that has struck out the most in the American League.</p>
<p>Collin McHugh was a pleasant surprise for the Astros a couple years ago, coming out of nowhere to become a fixture in the team&#8217;s rotation. In his career, his mostly used a mix of a fastball, cutter, and slow curveball to get outs, with a very occasional changeup. He&#8217;s struggled this year to a 4.69 ERA, courtesy of a slight uptick in his homerun rate, and his pitches getting hit more often in general:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-5467" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-1-1024x683.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (1)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>McHugh had a solid start against the Jays in the last series, going six innings, allowing three runs and striking out a whopping ten batters. He&#8217;s had their number historically, with a career 2.79 ERA prior to this season against them.</p>
<h4>August 14 – 1:07 PM ET</h4>
<p>Marcus Stroman vs. Mike Fiers</p>
<p>After starting opening day for the Jays with high expectations, Marcus Stroman has had his share of struggles this season. The ascension of J.A. Happ, Marco Estrada, and Aaron Sanchez have made the assumed ace&#8217;s struggles easier to live with, but there are certainly some positive trends we can see as the season has gone along. Stroman may have overused his sinker in the early going, and is doing a better job of mixing his pitches now.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-2.jpeg"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-5468" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/08/Brooksbaseball-Chart-2-1024x683.jpeg" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart (2)" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>Stroman had an impressive start against the Astros in the last series, going seven strong innings and striking out 13 batters. Stroman has generally struggled this season when facing a team twice in a short span, so it will be interesting to see what, if any, adjustments he and Russell Martin make for the return matchup.</p>
<p>Mike Fiers came over to the Astros from the Brewers in what would probably be called the Carlos Gomez trade, but Houston has probably been much more happy with Fiers, given that they just designated Gomez for assignment. Fiers is a fun story as a late bloomer who caught fire with Milwaukee in 2012, and has carved out a role as a steady back-end pitcher, something which teams can always use. As someone without dominant stuff or high-end velocity, Fiers has to mix his pitches and work the strike zone to be effective, and did so against the Jays in his last start, going six innings and allowing only two runs and no walks.</p>
<h3>Additions and Subtractions</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will be forced to rely on their outfield depth in the coming weeks with both Kevin Pillar and Jose Bautista landing on the disabled list in recent days. Replacing them will be Darrell Ceciliani and Junior Lake, both up from AAA Buffalo. Outfielder Ezequiel Carerra, a third Blue Jay on the disabled list, will be starting his rehab assignment on Friday with the Buffalo Bisons, and is eligible to return on August 16th.</p>
<p>Houston will be missing their ace reliever Ken Giles for this series as he is heading to paternity leave for the weekend. However, Luke Gregerson, their other star relief pitcher, could return from the disabled list if deemed ready to pitch. All reports are that he is good to go, so he may be back this weekend. The Astros will be without former Blue Jays players Colby Rasmus and Luis Valbuena (Spring training counts, right?), as they both find themselves on the disabled list for different injuries.</p>
<h3>Keep an Eye On</h3>
<p><strong>Tired Astros</strong></p>
<p>The Astros played a double header on Thursday due to a rainout on Wednesday, so they could suffer from fatigue in this upcoming series with the Blue Jays. Luckily for them, they easily won both games on Thursday in blowout fashion, meaning their players had much less stress on them than tight games. However, they still had to fly to Toronto late on Thursday night from Minnesota, so the effects of that may still come into play.</p>
<p><strong>Strikeouts</strong></p>
<p>The last time the Blue Jays and Astros met up, the Blue Jays set a MLB record for most strikeouts in a series with 59. A lot of that was caused by the players&#8217; unfamiliarity with the lighting at Minute Maid Park, as well as a non-black batter&#8217;s eye, so don&#8217;t expect another record setting &#8220;performance&#8221; in this series. However, two of the Blue Jays&#8217; best three batters when it comes to avoiding the strikeout, Kevin Pillar and Jose Bautista, will not be playing in this series, and their replacements are a lot more prone to whiffing than them. That could help the Astros record some big punch outs again this series.</p>
<p><strong>Second Basemen</strong></p>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; second baseman, Devon Travis, has been carrying the load offensively while the rest of the tam has been slumping lately, batting a cool .386/.414/.627 since July 19th in 87 plate appearances, but he won&#8217;t be the best player at the keystone in this series. The Astros&#8217; Jose Altuve has been one of the best players in baseball this season, with a 6.0 WARP and a triple slash of .361/.427/.570 in 504 plate appearances. Settle in for an amazing series of offense from these second basemen as they look to one up each other during each at-bat.</p>
<h3>Probable Lineup</h3>
<table style="background-color: #ffffff;border-collapse: collapse;border: 1px solid #000000;color: #000000;width: 100%" border="1" cellspacing="1" cellpadding="2">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Houston Astros</h3>
</td>
<td style="text-align: center">
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">George Springer-LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Devon Travis-2B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Alex Bregman-3B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Josh Donaldson-3B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jose Altuve-2B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Edwin Encarnacion-DH</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Carlos Correa-SS</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Michael Saunders-RF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Evan Gattis-DH</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Troy Tulowitzki-SS</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Preston Tucker-LF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Russell Martin-C</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">A.J. Reed-1B</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Justin Smoak-1B</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jake Marisnick-CF</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Melvin Upton Jr.-CF</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align: center">Jason Castro-C</td>
<td style="text-align: center">Darrell Ceciliani-LF</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>via <a href="http://www.rosterresource.com" target="_blank">Roster Resource</a></em></p>
<h3>Final Thoughts</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays enter this series only 0.5 games above Baltimore for first place in the American League East and have to face a very tough Astros team this weekend. Houston has won three straight, albeit against the lowly Minnesota Twins, so despite their third place standing in the AL West, don&#8217;t expect them to just roll over and die in this series. As we saw last week, they are capable of staying in these games and making them tough, despite the Blue Jays taking three of four last time. With Baltimore facing the first place Giants over the weekend, winning this series isn&#8217;t so crucial, but can go a long way to giving the Blue Jays a more comfortable lead heading into the last six weeks of the season.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 4, Astros 1; If You&#8217;re Happ-Y and You Know It Win Fifteen</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/04/recap-blue-jays-4-astros-1-if-youre-happ-y-and-you-know-it-win-fifteen/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 05 Aug 2016 03:23:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Houston Astros]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.A. Happ]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Toronto and Houston wrapped up their four game series on Thursday night at Minute Maid Park with another low scoring affair.  The Blue Jays sent left-hander J.A. Happ to the mound to face Houston righty Mike Fiers. Similar to the other games in this series it would be the starters who dominated. Fiers went six innings, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Toronto and Houston wrapped up their four game series on Thursday night at Minute Maid Park with another low scoring affair.  The Blue Jays sent left-hander J.A. Happ to the mound to face Houston righty Mike Fiers. Similar to the other games in this series it would be the starters who dominated. Fiers went six innings, struck out seven, gave up five hits and allowed two runs. He was his own worst enemy in the fifth, as he uncorked two wild pitches that helped lead to the second Blue Jays run. Happ also went six innings, as he gave up four hits and one walk while striking out six batters. He left with a 2-1 lead, in line for his 15th win of the season.</p>
<p>Toronto added on single runs in the eighth and ninth innings off of the Houston bullpen, and the Blue Jays combination of Benoit-Grilli-Osuna shut the door, pitching three scoreless innings to preserve the series win for the Blue Jays. With the win, Toronto moved into a virtual tie for first place in the American League East with the Baltimore Orioles, who lost tonight to the Texas Rangers 5-3.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game By WPA</h3>
<p>With the Blue Jays leading 2-0 and Happ having faced one over the minimum through four, the Astros got a lead off double by Evan Gattis to start the fifth. After retiring the next two batters, Tyler White collected his second hit of the game, a run scoring double to cut the lead to 2-1. This increased the win expectancy for Houston by 12.9 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game By WPA</h3>
<p>In the top of the sixth, with the Jays leading 2-1, the Astros opened the inning with a walk and a single. One out later with runners on the corners, Carlos Correa grounded into a 6-4-3 double play to end the inning and preserve the lead for Toronto. This lowered the win expectancy for Houston by 20.7 percentage points, and would be the closest the Astros would get to tying the game.</p>
<h3>Tulowitzki Returns</h3>
<p>After missing three games due to being hit by a pitch on his hand on Sunday, Troy Tulowitzki returned to the lineup for the finale in Houston. Manager John Gibbons had him bat seventh in the line up to ease him back into action. Tulowitzki hit the ball hard in two of his at bats, showing little effect of the injury he sustained. He went one for four with a single in this one.</p>
<h3>Encarnacion Does it Again</h3>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion hit a solo home run to lead off the top of the ninth to extend the lead for the Blue Jays to 4-1. This was his 30th home run of the season and his fifth consecutive season as a member of the Blue Jays. That is the second longest streak behind Carlos Delgado, who did it for eight consecutive seasons.</p>
<h3>Strikeouts Keep Coming</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays offense set a new Major League Baseball record with 61 strikeouts in a four game series and have had six straight games with 10 or more strikeouts. This is obviously a huge concern as putting the ball in plays allows for more opportunities for things to happen on the field without always needing a hit. An example of this happened in the first inning, when after a leadoff double by Devon Travis, the Jays were able to score the runner with two outs simply by putting the ball in play.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Toronto will wrap up the road trip with a stop in Kansas City on the weekend. The Blue Jays come into the series having won three series&#8217; in a row, while the Royals have lost 10 of their last 13 games. Game one will feature new Blue Jays starter Francisco Liriano (6-11, 5.46 ERA), acquired at the trade deadline from the Pittsburgh Pirates, against right-hander Dillon Gee (3-5., 4.66 ERA), who is making a spot start for the Royals. First pitch is at 8:15 PM ET/7:15 PM CT.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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