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	<title>Toronto &#187; Home runs</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/31/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-orioles-2/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 31 Aug 2017 14:39:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Fly Balls]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home runs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tim Beckham]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13225</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski How is Tim Beckham Doing This? Blue Jay A – 5.6 BB%/15.1 K%/13HR/14SB – 8.0 VORP Oriole B – 5.8 BB%/28.3 K%/ 18HR/ 6SB – 29.1 VORP As you can probably guess from the title of this section, Oriole B is Orioles’ shortstop Tim Beckham. Blue Jay [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Nick Dika, Andrew Munn, and Greg Wisniewski</em></p>
<h3>How is Tim Beckham Doing This?</h3>
<p>Blue Jay A – 5.6 BB%/15.1 K%/13HR/14SB – 8.0 VORP<br />
Oriole B – 5.8 BB%/28.3 K%/ 18HR/ 6SB – 29.1 VORP</p>
<p>As you can probably guess from the title of this section, Oriole B is Orioles’ shortstop Tim Beckham. Blue Jay A is Kevin Pillar. Despite posting a similar walk rate and a K rate 13.2% higher than Pillar’s, Beckham has managed to make himself significantly more offensively valuable in 55 fewer at-bats this season. Beckham has been especially hot since being traded to Baltimore, hitting .393/.418/.667 since August 1st.</p>
<p>The O’s shortstop and former first-overall pick who was acquired at the non-waiver trade deadline is having what may be a breakout season at age-27, slashing .295/.341/.477. Given his problematic plate approach, is his breakout sustainable or is he benefiting from the same Orioles’ devil magic that seemingly keeps them in contention no matter how many times they trot Ubaldo Jimenez out to the mound?</p>
<p>Despite his contact problems, Beckham has always managed to run high batting averages on balls in play, posting a career BABIP of .352. This year, Beckham’s BABIP is sitting at .386, uncharacteristically high even for him. Given his exit velocity sits a tick above average at 88.6 mph, Beckham has been benefiting from some batted ball luck. The only other change in his offensive profile is that Beckham has managed to significantly cut his infield fly ball percentage – from 12.8% in 2016 and a career average 7.1% all the way down to 4.3%, well below the league average of 9.6%. For reference, if you’re wondering why Pillar has been so much less valuable, he pops up at a 15.3% clip.</p>
<p>Can Beckham keep up his torrid pace? Definitely not. When some of his batted balls stop falling for hits, his average (and OBP with it) are going to regress. But if he is able to keep minimizing his infield flyball percentage, he may be able to keep some of the offensive gains he’s made this season. Coupled with his defense at shortstop, the Orioles will definitely take it. And everyone else will continue to shake our heads.</p>
<h3>Get Your Outfielders Ready</h3>
<p>Thursday night’s matchup involves two pitchers who operate with nearly identical strategies. Of all qualified starters in 2017, Marco Estrada and Jeremy Hellickson rank 2nd and 6th respectively in fly ball percentage. Both use nearly the exact same pitch mix, with their primary weapons being the fastball and changeup, while also turning to the curveball and cutter on occasion. While both have had success in the past, each pitcher has also shared in their struggles during the 2017 campaign.</p>
<p>Hellickson was a trade deadline acquisition for Baltimore, one whose mediocre campaign with the Phillies has taken a turn for the worst since donning the orange and black. In five starts for the Orioles, the right-hander has tossed 29 and 2/3 innings with an ERA of 5.46. His home run issues have become even more pronounced, giving up seven home runs over the same stretch. On the year, he has given up 1.84 home runs per nine innings as his increased fly ball percentage in comparison to years past has lead to a new career high in home runs allowed.</p>
<p>Meanwhile, Estrada has been no stranger to struggles of his own this year. Over his 151 and 2/3 innings pitched he has produced an ERA of 5.04 giving up home runs at a rate of 1.42 per nine innings. Despite this, he has pitched better as of late, lasting at least 6 innings in five of his last six starts. Over the same period, he has tossed an ERA of 3.86 over 37 and 1/3 innings, striking out 30 and walking 12.</p>
<p>Adding to the potential fireworks are both teams’ tendency to slug fly balls. This could be especially troublesome for Estrada, considering that Baltimore currently leads baseball in xWOBA on fly balls at .458. While Toronto sits down in 20th by the same measure with a .412 xWOBA, they are also 13th in the majors in home runs. Combining these two teams’ offensive firepower with extreme fly ball pitchers could potentially lead to quite the power display Thursday night.</p>
<h3>Osuna or Later His Season Will End</h3>
<p>Roberto Osuna is still at the back of the bullpen, saving games more often than not for the Toronto Blue Jays. And, despite his success (which has been interrupted by both bad luck and poor execution lately), it probably isn’t going to be that way much longer.</p>
<p>Osuna is not complaining publicly about any injury. That’s nice, but it’s also clearly not entirely honest. Velocity is a great indicator of possible injury concerns with pitchers, as is exit velocity with batters. It’s not the only thing, but if you can’t move 100% comfortably through your motion, it follows you can’t hit 100% of your speed.</p>
<p>Osuna had a lowered average velocity to start the year, but started to loosen up a bit in June of this year, observe the Brooks Baseball graph:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13226" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture1.png" alt="Picture1" width="843" height="433" /></a></p>
<p>Notable, though is that even during his best month in 2017 he was not throwing as hard as his worst month in 2016. And then in July and August, he dipped below 95 mph average and has continued sliding.</p>
<p>Instead of average velocity, we can check max velocity. If the average is lower, but the max is pretty close to the Osuna of old, we could speculate that that’s a strategic decision to mix speeds more and disrupt the timing of hitters.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13227" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Picture2.png" alt="Picture2" width="815" height="386" /></a></p>
<p>So there it is. Or isn’t really. Roberto can try and reach back for a little something extra, and what he gets is 96mph. Only a year ago that was 99mph. We could look at the sudden plethora of cutters and two seam fastballs as other evidence that throwing the hard four seamer is not easy for him anymore, but the velocity drop is probably argument enough when it’s 3 mph.</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna is not right, and in a lost season it’s only a matter of time before the team has to decide to do the right thing and look to the long term. If Roberto Osuna isn’t asked to answer the bell in a save situation this series, it’s not his fault, it’s a decision that’s been a long time coming.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 9, Twins 3; Jays Bats Breakout in Minnesota</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/20/recap-blue-jays-9-twins-3-jays-bats-breakout-in-minnesota/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 21 May 2016 03:13:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[9 runs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home runs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2927</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While the Jays’ struggled to put up runs early on against Minnesota curveballer Tyler Duffey, the team broke through in the 6th inning, scoring 5 runs and staking Aaron Sanchez to a 7-1 lead. The newly re-arranged lineup paid dividends for the Blue Jays as leadoff hitter Jose Bautista hit a three run home run [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While the Jays’ struggled to put up runs early on against Minnesota curveballer Tyler Duffey, the team broke through in the 6<sup>th</sup> inning, scoring 5 runs and staking Aaron Sanchez to a 7-1 lead. The newly re-arranged lineup paid dividends for the Blue Jays as leadoff hitter Jose Bautista hit a three run home run off Trevor May to provide more than enough breathing room for Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez was both dominant and efficient tonight, striking out 7 without issuing a walk, throwing 96 pitches over 7 innings of work.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>While it didn’t give the Jays’ the breathing room they needed, Josh Donaldson’s two run shot in the third inning off Tyler Duffey was the top play of the game by WPA, increasing the Jays’ chances of winning by 20.7 percentage points. The homer scored new leadoff hitter, Jose Bautista, who singled ahead of Donaldson.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Despite two hits, including an RBI double in the 6<sup>th</sup>, the bottom play of the game by WPA was the double play Troy Tulowitzki hit into during the top of the second inning. The double play grounder decreased the probability of a Jays’ win by 10.8 percentage points.</p>
<h3>The End of the Goins Era</h3>
<p>It appears as though the Ryan Goins era in Toronto may be nearing its end. While Go-Go is still loved by many factions of the Blue Jays’ fanbase for his stellar defensive play, it appears as though the team’s patience and John Gibbons’ leash is getting shorter and shorter. Gibbons wasted no time pinch-hitting for Goins tonight, opting for Paredes in the 5<sup>th</sup> inning when his spot in the order came up with two out and two on. The slumping Goins, who was recently demoted into a platoon with Darwin Barney, has played even more sparingly since the acquisition of bat first utility infielder Jimmy Paredes. With Devon Travis currently in Buffalo on a rehab assignment, barring injury, Goins time with the big club may be numbered.</p>
<h3>Michael Saunders: Revelation</h3>
<p>Michael Saunders continued his strong 2016 campaign with a three hit night in Minnesota. This raised the man some call &#8220;Bone-on-Bone&#8221; up to a .319 average on the season. There has been a lot to like about Michael Saunders so far this season, especially watching him hang in against left handed pitchers (his 7<sup>th</sup> home run of the season was hit against a lefty tonight). While Saunders can be expected to play a big role in lengthening the Jays’ lineup, we should expect some regression, particularly in the batting average department, as he entered the night with a .400 BABIP. There’s no reason to think the power won’t continue, but with his surgically repaired knee and a .400 BABIP, expect the average to dip.</p>
<h3>Twins Pitching: Good for What Ails You</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays offence erupted for the first time in several weeks against a Minnesota team that came into the game, third last in the league in ERA (4.90). With two hits again tonight, Troy Tulowitzki appears to be turning things around while Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista both went deep. Is this the turnaround we’ve all been anticipating? It will take more than a few games at Target Field to tell for certain, but tonight’s outburst was definitely a positive sign. If this indeed the beginning of the turnaround, this off-season’s hotly debated topic of who should leadoff may be finally answered: Jose Bautista.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays series in Minnesota continues tomorrow afternoon at 2:00 EST when JA Happ (5-1, 3.40 ERA) looks to rebound from his worst start of the season. He will go against the (you guessed it) soft tossing Pat Dean (0-1, 4.50 ERA).</p>
<p><em>Lead Image Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 6, Rays 1; The Good Aaron Sanchez is Back</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/29/sanchez-dealing/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/29/sanchez-dealing/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 30 Apr 2016 02:27:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Drew Storen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recap]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home runs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[house of horrors]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Michael Saunders]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2118</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays opened a three game series against the Tampa Bay Rays Friday night in St. Petersburg.  This is already the second trip in 2016 to the “House of Horrors” for the Blue Jays.  The last time they split a four game series at Tropicana Field but missed an opportunity to sweep the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays opened a three game series against the Tampa Bay Rays Friday night in St. Petersburg.  This is already the second trip in 2016 to the “House of Horrors” for the Blue Jays.  The last time they split a four game series at Tropicana Field but missed an opportunity to sweep the series due to some bullpen meltdowns, a poor managerial decision and the “infamous” illegal second base slide by Jose Bautista.   The Jays entered the night on a three game losing streak, wherein the Toronto offense had been struggling.  Having tallied one run in the last 24 innings.  Tampa Bay was sending the tough lefty Drew Smyly to face Aaron Sanchez of the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>Sanchez was just coming off his shortest and least effective start last Friday against the Athletics.  This start didn’t begin as he hoped as he allowed two singles to the first two hitters Logan Forsythe and Brad Miller.  However, he was able to retire the next three hitters on eight pitches, including two strikeouts.  He carried that effectiveness throughout the game, mixing his pitches and keeping his fastball down.  Sanchez’s final line was 7 IP, 0 ER, 2BB, 6K.  103 pitches/71 strikes.</p>
<p>Smyly  was effective, and able to keep the Jays hitters off balance by inducing many weak pop ups and striking out eight over six innings.  He only allowed two hits, however, they were monster home runs by Michael Saunders and Josh Donaldson.  Saunders&#8217; off the top of the wall in deep center, Donaldson’s a moon shot off the catwalk in the outfield.  He left the game down 2-0.</p>
<p>The Jays were able to take advantage of the Rays bullpen and added on three more runs in the eighth inning.  Saunders hit his second home run of the game and Justin Smoak lined a two run single with the bases loaded.  They added another run in the ninth on an improbable opposite field solo shot off the bat of the second baseman Ryan Goins.  The Rays countered with a solo shot by Brad Miller off the struggling Drew Storen (10.13 ERA).</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna, needing some work, finished this game in the ninth as the Jays took game one by a score of 6-1.</p>
<h3> Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Josh Donaldson, who commented after the loss Wednesday night that some of the hitters in the lineup had to &#8220;evaluate their approach at the plate&#8221;, continued his flawless approach. He hit a massive sixth inning home run  that gave the Jays a 2-0 lead and increased the WPA by .137.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The Jays had just opened the scoring in the top of the third with a solo shot by Michael Saunders, and the Rays were threatening in the bottom of the inning.  With two on and one out the Rays best hitter Evan Longoria came to the plate and proceeded to fly out to right field and reduced the Rays the WPA by -.055.</p>
<h3>Russell Martin Avoids Infamy</h3>
<p>Russell Martin entered the game tied with Juan Francisco, Alex Rios, Colby Rasmus with the dubious record of most consecutive Blue Jay strikeouts (as a batter) with seven.  He proceeded to strike out in his first two at bats of the night and set a new Blue Jay record.  In the seventh inning, he ended the streak by hitting a single to the opposite field, coming up short of Rick Ankiel&#8217;s record of 10 consecutive K&#8217;s.  Martin has been dealing with neck pain and it is most likely impacting his ability at the plate, but his value behind the plate is crucial to the success of this team.</p>
<h3>Captain Canada: Michael Saunders</h3>
<p>Since being inserted into the leadoff spot Michael Saunders continues to produce quality at bats for the Jays.  He has been taking pitches, hitting the ball with authority and is a solid table setter for the rest of the lineup.  Tonight he took things into his own hands having his first multi home run game as a Blue Jay. A line of .324/.377/.606 is more than the Jays could have hoped for, and he, too, was in the hunt for a Blue Jays record tonight.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Michael Saunders is the 3rd different Canadian in <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> history with a multi-Home Run game (Martin 2x, Stairs)</p>
<p>— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) <a href="https://twitter.com/SNstats/status/726217354636595202">April 30, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays go for two wins in a row Saturday as JA Happ (and his 2.42 ERA) will take on Tampa ace Chris Archer (and his 5.47 ERA) starting at 6:10 pm. Yes, those are the correct numbers beside their names.</p>
<p><em> Feature Photo- Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Athletics 8, Blue Jays 5; A day we would like to forget</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/22/recap-athletics-8-blue-jays-5-a-day-we-would-like-to-forget/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 23 Apr 2016 03:36:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Home runs]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Oakland Athletics]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Sonny Gray]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Suspension]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Friday night was the opener of a three game series between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Oakland Athletics. It was billed as having the makings of great pitchers duel between Aaron Sanchez and Sonny Gray.  However, prior to the game, the Blue Jays and their fans were hit with the announcement that first baseman [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Friday night was the opener of a three game series between the Toronto Blue Jays and the Oakland Athletics. It was billed as having the makings of great pitchers duel between Aaron Sanchez and Sonny Gray.  However, prior to the game, the Blue Jays and their fans were hit with the announcement that first baseman Chris Colabello was suspended for 80 games due to violating the Major League Baseball drug policy.  The expected enthusiasm of the first game of a home stand clashed with the shock, disbelief and disappointment of the suspension.</p>
<p>At 7:06 pm Aaron Sanchez took the mound, and it was pretty evident early on he was having trouble commanding the curveball, hitting the second hitter Chris Coghlan. The Athletic hitters were then able to sit on his fastball.  They scored one in the first, but could have been worse had it not been for an outstanding play by Ryan Goins.  The hard contact continued next inning where Chris Coghlan, playing for the injured Danny Valencia, hammered a two out, opposite-field homerun to make it 4-0.  Sanchez eventually would be removed with one out in the fourth trailing 6-1. Sanchez&#8217;s line was 4.1IP, 6ER, 10H, 1BB, 3K, 1WP, 1HBP. 1HR. 85 pitches/63 strikes.</p>
<p>Sonny Gray controlled the game early striking out 5 of the first 6 Jays.  However, the Jays would slowly mount a  comeback late in the game with single runs in the sixth and seventh.  Gray&#8217;s final line was 7IP, 3ER, 6H, 3BB, 7K. 1HR. 100 pitches/59 strikes.</p>
<p>Again the early season struggles came to haunt the Blue Jays.  In the sixth inning, they had the bases loaded with no one out and the heart of the order up.  They were again unable to get clutch hits and only scored one run.  Also, once again, the bullpen couldn&#8217;t hold it to a one run deficit.  This time Roberto Osuna gave up Khris Davis&#8217; second two run double of the night to restore the A&#8217;s three run lead. The Jays would not score in the 9th.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>After a botched double play in the second inning, Chris Coglan hammered the next pitch for an opposite field three run homerun.  This increased the WPA by 22.4% and gave the A’s a 4-0 lead.</p>
<h3>Worst Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the bottom of the eighth inning, with runners on first and second, trailing by one run, Ryan Goins grounded out (-.122 WPA) to end the inning. The rally was ended, and came up short.</p>
<h3>Injury Bug</h3>
<p>Colabello wasn&#8217;t the only player missing from the lineup.  It was announced that due to nagging injuries, Michael Saunders (sore hamstring), and Troy Tulowitzki (sore hip), would not be in the lineup.  These situations will be interesting to monitor as both players have had trouble staying healthy and on the field in their careers.  Also, in the top of the sixth inning, Josh Thole came out to catch in place of Russell Martin.  It was later revealed he was removed with a stiff neck, but for precautionary reasons.  The one area on this team the Jays can’t afford an injury is catcher, so a speedy recovery is crucial for Russell Martin.</p>
<h3>Major League Debut</h3>
<p>Chad Girodo, who was recalled to replace Colabello, entered in the top of the fifth with one out and a runner on second.  He stranded the runner and proceeded to pitch 1.2 innings, including getting first career strikeout.  His pitching helped to keep the Jays in the game through the middle innings.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Saturday the Jays will play game two of this three game series.  Chris Bassitt faces off against JA Happ.  Hopefully it will be an overall better day for the Blue Jays, and the late offensive outburst is a sign of more things to come.  First pitch will be at 1:07 pm EST.</p>
<p><em>Lead photo-John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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