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	<title>Toronto &#187; home run</title>
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		<title>One At-Bat: Koji Uehara vs. Devon Travis</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/14/one-at-bat-koji-uehara-vs-devon-travis/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Jun 2016 11:29:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[One At-Bat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[11 pitch battle]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Devon Travis]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[home run]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Koji Uehara]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I have, once again, deemed it appropriate to have another edition of One At-Bat. And you, presumably, have deemed it appropriate to read it. Wonderful! We&#8217;ve gotten off to a great start. If this is your first time with One At-Bat, it&#8217;s not really complicated. You get a recap of exactly One At-Bat, pitch by [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have, once again, deemed it appropriate to have another edition of One At-Bat. And you, presumably, have deemed it appropriate to read it. Wonderful! We&#8217;ve gotten off to a great start.</p>
<p>If this is your first time with One At-Bat, it&#8217;s not really complicated. You get a recap of exactly One At-Bat, pitch by pitch. Sometimes I wander outside of the format for dramatic effect, but today&#8217;s OAB is exactly as advertised. Often in these pieces, I have to immediately eliminate really important, game changing plate appearances, because the batter puts one of the first two pitches in play. Great hitting, but not much to dissect. Other times, I eliminate an otherwise compelling battle between pitcher and hitter because the result is underwhelming. Every story needs a beginning middle and ending, these lack endings. Sometimes I feel like the story has already been told better somewhere else. Often there is an oral history of memorable OAB. For example, Joe Carter does not need the OAB treatment; he and Mitch Williams have already explained it all in their own words.</p>
<p>Now, on to today&#8217;s selection. This At-Bat was never a threat to be eliminated on any of those grounds. At the risk of giving too much away, pull up a chair, this is going to take more than a few sentences to get through.</p>
<p>Our featured plate appearance occured Friday, June 3rd in Fenway Park. In the top of the 8th inning. Koi Uehara, Boston&#8217;s 41 year old former closer, (still effective, but usurped by the younger, more dominant Craig Kimbrel in an offseason trade), is in a 3-1 game. He struck out Michael Saunders and then walked Justin Smoak. Devon Travis, off the disabled list earlier than expected because of Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s trip there, is coming up to bat.</p>
<h3>The Setup:</h3>
<p>Koji is, as I mentioned, a former closer. His stuff, though is not typical of closers. He throws primarily two pitches, a not very fast fastball (87mph) and a very nasty splitter (78mph). Koji combines these pitches, and elite control of them, to make himself an effective reliever. Since 2009, his K/9 is 11.49 (17th among relievers), BB/9 1.32 (1st) and ground ball rate is 31.4% (11th). Batters either strike out, or hit harmless fly balls. Pretty awesome.</p>
<p>Devon Travis, as a rookie, while playing injured for a month, hit .304/.361/.398. Alas in 2016, his early return has shown to be a tad premature, and he&#8217;s slashing .150/.188/.250. So, Devon, meet Goliath.</p>
<h3>The Sequence:</h3>
<p>Koji gets the at-bat started with a fastball, low and away, and Travis lays off. Time for a quick visit from the catcher.</p>
<p>The second pitch is right on the outside edge, another fastball, and Travis takes it for a strike.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch2.gif"><img class=" size-full wp-image-3803 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch2.gif" alt="Pitch2" width="476" height="268" /></a></p>
<p>Pitch three is a fastball again, and Travis overswings a bit and misses it completely. 1-2 count. After a 1-2 count, Uehara has a history of striking out 50.5% of the batters he has faced.</p>
<p>The catcher calls for the fastball again, Eckersley notes on the Sox broadcast that &#8220;high gas&#8221; is what he&#8217;s asking for, but high and away is not tempting for Travis.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch4.gif"><img class=" size-full wp-image-3804 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch4.gif" alt="Pitch4" width="476" height="268" /></a></p>
<p>That&#8217;s four fastballs in a row, and the count is 2-2. Travis hasn&#8217;t seen Uehara&#8217;s other pitch, you know, the tough one.</p>
<p>Which is why, with two strikes, it&#8217;s almost guaranteed to show up now. And it&#8217;s on the inner half and up. This isn&#8217;t where Koji wants to put splitters to right handed batters, observe the heat maps:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/kojiboth.png"><img class=" wp-image-3797 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/kojiboth-1024x505.png" alt="kojiboth" width="700" height="345" /></a></p>
<p>On the left is Koji&#8217;s splitter location vs. RHB, on the right, his fastball location. The formula is pretty consistent. Keep the splitter low and preferably away, where it will induce weak contact when the batter is thinking fastball. Throw the fastball in the zone, from the center to up and away, keeping it away from anywhere hitters can pull the ball consistently. It&#8217;s worked thousands of times. So far, he&#8217;s put exactly one pitch in the target zone, the called strike on the black, away.</p>
<p>Uehara&#8217;s splitter, as we said before, is up, so Travis hooks a fly ball foul. He&#8217;s seen five pitches, and probably three that were not where Uehara imagined them.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch5.gif"><img class=" size-full wp-image-3800 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch5.gif" alt="Pitch5" width="476" height="268" /></a></p>
<p>Pitch six is back to the fastball, but instead of putting it on the outside black, its almost in the opposite batter&#8217;s box. Devon Travis is one more mistake away from a free pass to first. On the other hand, Koji has already walked one in the game, that&#8217;s usually his total for three week&#8217;s worth of work.</p>
<p>Pitch seven is a splitter again. Strangely, it&#8217;s in the upper half of the zone again. Travis just clips it on it&#8217;s way by and it skips foul to the backstop.</p>
<p>Pitch eight is splitter number three. And a full swing from Devon Travis sends another fly ball sailing foul down the left field line.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch8.gif"><img class=" size-full wp-image-3801 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch8.gif" alt="Pitch8" width="476" height="268" /></a></p>
<p>Unbelievably, Travis seems to be homing in on the splitter at this point. It&#8217;s been in the top half of the zone again and again. Both players reload with a new baseball.</p>
<p>Pitch nine. Yes nine. Full count, and nine pitches in and the .150 hitter is still hanging around, seeing if he can figure out strikeout master Koji Uehara in real time. Isn&#8217;t baseball great?</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a fastball, and, though Travis drops the head and fouls it off, he&#8217;s clearly off balance. He&#8217;s timed the splitter, and is fighting the fastball. Eckersley calls it from the booth in Boston. Does the Red Sox battery see that?</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch9.gif"><img class=" size-full wp-image-3802 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch9.gif" alt="Pitch9" width="476" height="268" /></a></p>
<p>Pitch ten, splitter up in the zone, and Travis is still not quite where he wants to be, just managing to get a piece of the splitter that comes in above the belt again.</p>
<h3>The Payoff:</h3>
<p>Yes, I didn&#8217;t write &#8220;The Payoff&#8221; until eleven pitches into the At-Bat. Justin Smoak is running on every 3-2 pitch, and that means he&#8217;s run enough to round the bases completely clockwise, and jogged just as far counterclockwise to go back to where he started. Isn&#8217;t baseball great?</p>
<p>The next pitch is a splitter, the fifth one that Travis has seen in the last couple of minutes. He was never that far off of it, and as soon as the ball and bat meet Dennis Eckersley says &#8220;Oh!&#8221; in a dejected sort of way. The ball hits the baggies above the back of the Monster seats, and Travis adds to the Blue Jay lead, making it 5-1.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch11.gif"><img class=" size-full wp-image-3805 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/Pitch11.gif" alt="Pitch11" width="476" height="268" /></a></p>
<p>If you ever wondered whether a young catcher makes a difference, reading swings and calling games, well, Christian Vazquez is a rookie, and he might have learned a painful lesson right there. He had eleven pitches to find something that worked, but Koji didn&#8217;t help him by failing to have the finesse we&#8217;re used to seeing from the Red Sox setup man.</p>
<p>The lesson gets just a touch more painful when you consider that the Sox will go on to rally in the 9th, and this game will end 5-4. Sometimes it&#8217;s the little things that make for a big play.</p>
<p><em>Lead photo credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Odd Way In Which The Blue Jays Won Late</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/03/the-odd-way-in-which-the-blue-jays-won-late/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/03/the-odd-way-in-which-the-blue-jays-won-late/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 03 May 2016 10:48:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[One At-Bat]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[9th inning]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[home run]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[luck]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tampa Bay Rays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Trop]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowitzki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2211</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[One At-Bat is a thing I do around here. I usually take one critical plate appearance from the recent past, and I break it down pitch by pitch. I do that in order to offer insight into just how thin the line is between victory and defeat on any given night. Any given day, too, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>One At-Bat is a thing I do around here. I usually take one critical plate appearance from the recent past, and I break it down pitch by pitch. I do that in order to offer insight into just how thin the line is between victory and defeat on any given night. Any given day, too, I guess. Sometimes, though, it isn&#8217;t One At-Bat. The one swing that looks dramatic and important isn&#8217;t really the key, it&#8217;s just the exclamation point on a long sentence of improbable events.</p>
<p>The reason, naturally, that I bring this up, is that while searching for my next OAB breakdown, I found such a confluence of events. Sunday afternoon, May 1st, at Tropicana Field, the Blue Jays and the Rays entered the top of the 9th inning tied 1-1. Interestingly, each team had a win expectancy of 50% at that point. It was literally anybody&#8217;s game to win. By the end of the half inning, the Rays will have a 1.5% chance of winning the game, and it all starts with Darwin Barney.</p>
<h3>The Setup:</h3>
<p>Not a lot of stories start with Darwin Barney, so that&#8217;s significant right there. In this case, Barney, who hits from the right side, has been called upon to pinch hit in Ryan Goins&#8217; spot, as the Rays lefty Xavier Cedeno is pitching to start the ninth. It&#8217;s the natural call for John Gibbons to make, as righties gain about 70 points of AVG and 90 points of OBP versus Cedendo.</p>
<p>With that said, Darwin Barney is a glove first player, and has a career OBP against lefties of .322 (close to league average) and a SLG% of .384 (not even close to average). Darwin Barney also hits doubles at the rate of one every 21.42 plate appearances (just below league average). However, on the second pitch of his at-bat, Darwin turns on an inside cutter at 87mph.</p>
<p><a href="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Barney2BRays.gif"><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/Barney2BRays.gif" alt="" width="475" height="270" /></a></p>
<p>It lands fair in the left field corner and he chugs into second base standing up. The first link in the chain is formed.</p>
<h3>The Sequence:</h3>
<p>Michael Saunders comes up, and it&#8217;s obvious from pitch number one that he&#8217;s bunting. John Gibbons is playing to score one run, sacrificing an out to get Barney to third. Cedeno remains in the game, as the lefty/lefty matchup favours him. Even though the bunt is on everyone&#8217;s mind, Xavier misses low, or low and away four times in a row. Instead of one out, Saunders walks down to first. Nobody out, two on, and the right handed power core coming up for Toronto means it&#8217;s time for a pitching change. The second link in the chain is in place.</p>
<p>Alex Colome is the new pitcher, and he doesn&#8217;t start off well against Donaldson. He throws 95mph, misses low, and then buries his second pitch in front of home plate. Then something a little bit lucky happens: the umpire, perhaps unimpressed with the wildness he&#8217;s seen, calls the next two pitches balls as well. Let&#8217;s see where they actually tracked.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/JD-vs-colome.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-2214" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/05/JD-vs-colome.gif" alt="JD vs colome" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>Under normal circumstances the zone usually expands when the hitter is ahead, but apparently, not this time. So, instead of 2-2, which is a tough count to hit in, the Blue Jays have the bases loaded and nobody out. In terms of win expectancy, Barney&#8217;s double raised the Jays chances by 17.3%, Saunders&#8217; walk by 2.5%, and Donaldson&#8217;s walk 14.5%. The Jays haven&#8217;t had a runner cross the plate, but the likelihood of multiple runs in the inning is so high that the Jays have an 84.3% chance of winning the game at this point.</p>
<p>This is why I love baseball. You know what should happen. You know what probably will happen. You can even see it happening in your mind. But it hasn&#8217;t happened yet. Colome might wriggle out of the chain.</p>
<p>The next batter up is Jose Bautista. Something you may have not noticed about Jose: in this particular situation, and by that I mean with the bases loaded, he&#8217;s not very good. His career slash line, as a point of reference, is .257/.369/.498. With the bases loaded, he bats .222/.317/.411. That&#8217;s a big dropoff. Oddly, if you take the runner off of first base, Jose has a .432/.559/.704 career slash line. Mental block? Not sure, but if you want somebody up with the bases loaded and the game on the line, it&#8217;s probably not Jose.</p>
<p>True to form, Jose starts chasing on the 4th pitch of the at-bat, and chases himself back into the dugout with a swinging strikeout on the fifth. The Rays get 12.4% of their win probability back. There is a mark on the chain, but it&#8217;s going to take a lot more effort to break it.</p>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion is up next. The very first pitch is hit for a sharp grounder up the middle. In another time and place, it&#8217;s a double play and the inning is over. The Blue Jays, however, are forging a chain out of luck and hope here. Somehow, with the infield shifted around and pulled in, the second baseman fields the ball on the shortstop side of the bag. Take a look.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/EEnoDPRays.gif" alt="" width="475" height="259" /></p>
<p>When he does that, the shortstop doesn&#8217;t have time to cover second base. With nobody to throw to the only out to be had was at first base. I don&#8217;t know how that wasn&#8217;t a double play. The odds of a grounder fielded by the second baseman are low. Those odds with two slow runners on the base paths? Even lower.</p>
<p>Encarnacion&#8217;s fielder&#8217;s choice is worth 13.6% in win expectancy. Incredibly, it&#8217;s only the third highest change in the win probability in this inning. Some games finish without a single plate appearance affecting the outcome by that much.</p>
<h3>The Payoff:</h3>
<p>I call it &#8220;The Payoff&#8221; here because it&#8217;s what we all want; a big moment to stamp in our memories. So, let&#8217;s walk through it, have some fun, and then go back for another look.</p>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki. Two men on. Two men out.</p>
<p>Pitch One &#8211;  Away, ball one.</p>
<p>Pitch Two &#8211;  High, ball two.</p>
<p>Pitch Three &#8211;  Low, outside corner, strike one.</p>
<p>Pitch Four &#8211; Upper third of the zone, outer third of the plate. Swing and a drive.</p>
<p><img class="aligncenter" src="http://www.bluejaysplus.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/05/TuloHRRays.gif" alt="" width="475" height="261" /></p>
<p>And that, folks, is how you give up the 198th home run of Troy Tulowitzki&#8217;s career. The Win Expectancy needle moves 13.1% on that play. It&#8217;s hard for it to move much further, as the Jays now have a 98.5% chance of sealing the victory in the bottom of the 9th.</p>
<p>Can I point to one critical moment in this inning? No, I only have so many fingers on my hand. It began with an unlikely double. And, by win expectancy, that double was the most important play in the inning. It continued with a four pitch walk that should have been a sac bunt. Another four pitch walk was a gift from the umpire. Then a strikeout. Then an easy groundout that wasn&#8217;t a double play. Finally, the big blow: a home run from Tulowitzki (who hasn&#8217;t looked like himself since he became a Blue Jay). Maybe the Trop isn&#8217;t the &#8216;house of horrors&#8217; that we make it out to be. Perhaps instead it&#8217;s just where bizarre baseball comes to play.</p>
<p><em>Lead Image- Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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