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	<title>Toronto &#187; Free Agent</title>
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		<title>10 Under the Radar Free Agent Relievers for the Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/16/10-under-the-radar-free-agent-relievers-for-the-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Nov 2016 10:50:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[closer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Agent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[greg holland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[neftali feliz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[reliever]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7957</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the qualifying offer scenario out of the way, and the departures of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion one step closer to completion, the public focus of the offseason has justifiably been aimed heavily at the offense. That being said, there are still other holes on this team that need to be filled. A backup [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the qualifying offer scenario out of the way, and the departures of Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion one step closer to completion, the public focus of the offseason has justifiably been aimed heavily at the offense. That being said, there are still other holes on this team that need to be filled. A backup catcher is certainly a necessity, though <a title="A.J. Jimenez Added to 40-man Roster" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/08/a-j-jimenez-added-to-40-man-roster/" target="_blank">steps have been taken to fill that role</a> and rotation depth is needed, but the biggest non-lineup area of concern is easily the bullpen.</p>
<p>Returning from last year’s up and down relief corps (more down than up) are ace closer Roberto Osuna, firey setup man Jason Grilli, and rookie standout Joe Biagini. There are other options still around, like Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup, Bo Schultz, and Mike Bolsinger, but the team doesn’t want to have to be counting on those arms for big outs with the game on the line. They need to get better.</p>
<p>There are certainly lots of ways to go about building a bullpen, but with the news of a recent <a href="https://twitter.com/SNETCampbell/status/798154367358615552" target="_blank">three year offer to retain Brett Cecil</a>, let’s take a look at some other free agent relievers.</p>
<p>For the purposes of this list, I’m going to be focusing on the guys who aren’t expected to get big multi-year deals. You won’t see names like Chapman, Jansen, and Melancon here simply because they are such unlikely fits. Instead, I’m going to go diving to see who could come cheap but still provide useful help to a team at or near the end of its budget.</p>
<p><em>*Note: I won’t be writing about Jays players like Cecil and Joaquin Benoit, because we all know their value. This is to help see who else might be on the market.</em></p>
<h3>Righthanded Pitchers</h3>
<h4>Neftali Feliz</h4>
<p>Remember him? The former fireballing Rangers closer has had his injury issues, and most recently found himself pitching in the middle innings for the Pittsburgh Pirates. Coming off a 6.38 ERA season split between Texas and Detroit, things weren’t looking so good for Feliz in the early goings last year, as he was carrying a 5.06 ERA over his first 22 appearances (all in April). But then a funny thing happened: he found his fastball.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/11/Brooksbaseball-Chart.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7958" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/11/Brooksbaseball-Chart.png" alt="Brooksbaseball-Chart" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>After sitting in the 94-95 mph range at the outset, Feliz once again started pumping heaters in the upper mid 90s, averaging over 97 mph from May to the end of the season and hitting 100 mph on multiple occasions. His increased velocity showed up in his results as well, posting a 3.16 ERA from May 1 until the end of the season with 46 K in 42 2/3 IP.</p>
<p>He wasn’t a perfect reliever, as he still gave up eight home runs in those final five months, but Feliz would make a very nice addition to the middle innings for Toronto.</p>
<h4>Greg Holland</h4>
<p>This one is cheating a bit as Holland may command a higher one year salary, but the <a href="http://nypost.com/2016/11/07/greg-hollands-budget-bullpen-potential-has-yankees-mets-lining-up/" target="_blank">Jays did have someone at his workout</a> and he could be an incredible fit.</p>
<p>From 2011-2014, Holland was in the conversation for the best relief pitcher in all of baseball. During that stretch he posted a 1.86 ERA with 358 strikeouts and 91 walks in 256 1/3 innings. His slider was particularly deadly, getting misses on over 50 percent of swings in that stretch.</p>
<p>In 2015, his workload finally seemed to catch up to him. His average fastball was down to 94 mph from 96+, and his slider lost some bite. He posted a 3.83 ERA with 49 K in 44 IP before it was found out that he actually needed Tommy John surgery. Holland missed the entire 2016 season, and is now a free agent.</p>
<p>He was apparently sitting around 88-91 mph in his workout for clubs, but he is still building up arm strength. The idea was to show teams that he&#8217;s healthy, and he apparently accomplished that. If Holland can be anything close to what he was, he’s going to be a bargain for whichever team eventually signs him.</p>
<h4>Joe Blanton</h4>
<p>It’s still difficult to look at the failed starting pitcher and see anything else, but Blanton has turned himself into a very viable reliever. Over he past two years he has allowed a batting line of .207/.265/.325 out of the bullpen, with 142 strikeouts in 137 1/3 innings. He showed the ability to get both righties and lefties out, and also to go multiple innings at a time.</p>
<p>He’s certainly not young (he’ll be 36 next season) and he doesn’t throw very hard (averaged just over 91 mph on his fastball), but he has developed an array swing and miss breaking pitches; Blanton&#8217;s curve, change, and slider all had miss rates over 35 percent last year. To make the most of that, he only throws the fastball 29 percent of the time.</p>
<p>Blanton had a career low BABIP last year, so there could be some regression, but he has definitely become a viable major league reliever.</p>
<h4>Brad Ziegler</h4>
<p>Ziegler seems like the pitcher on this list most likely to receive a decent multi-year contract, but the overall dollars should still be palatable. His career ERA of 2.44 and 2.05 over the last two years will be sought after for sure, but he’s not young (he’ll be 37), and he is something of a novelty act.</p>
<p>Not a lot needs to be said about the submariner other than &#8216;he’s really good at getting people out&#8217;. In fact, he’s so good at it that he often gets more than one at a time. Thanks to his 67 percent career groundball rate, Ziegler has induced 114 double play grounders in his career. In fact, his 16 last year would have placed ahead of Aaron Sanchez (14), a starter. The highest GIDP total among Blue Jays relievers was four.</p>
<p>He was slightly miscast as a closer in Arizona the last couple of years, where he was starting with clean innings. His ability to limit baserunners combined with his ability to get out of jams with double plays makes him an ideal fit in a setup role.</p>
<h4>Daniel Hudson</h4>
<p>It’s tough to look at a player who had a 5.22 ERA and think, “this guy would be a good fit,” but Hudson is a slightly special case. Up until June 21, he had a 1.55 ERA in 30 appearances. From August 2 until the end of the season, he had a 1.66 ERA in 25 appearances. He had 49 K in 50 1/3 IP during those two stretches.</p>
<p>Something when bizarrely wrong in the middle, however. From June 22 to Aug 1, Hudson was about as bad as a reliever can be, allowing 31 runs (26 earned) on 33 hits in 9 2/3 innings across 15 appearances. In case you’re curious, that’s a 24.21 ERA. During that stretch, his fastball was “rising” about a 3/4 of an inch less than normal, and his release point was at its lowest all season (though it it worth noting that it was not consistent even when he was going well).</p>
<p>It’s pretty likely that something was just completely off with Hudson during that stretch, and working with Pete Walker will likely help him with his consistency. He’s not elite, but he has a big fastball and misses some bats, which can help a lot in those middle innings.</p>
<h4>Sergio Romo</h4>
<p>Back in 2014, Romo lost his job as the Giants closer to Santiago Casilla, and he hasn’t really been in the public eye since (except for <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/11493214/v1205833983/must-c-comeback-contreras-baez-cap-incredible-rally/?game_pk=487610" target="_blank">his part in the Giants&#8217; NLDS Game 4 meltdown</a>). All he has done in that time is post a 2.86 ERA with 104 strikeouts in 88 innings over the last two years.</p>
<p>Those innings totals are low for two reasons. The first is that Romo missed 77 games last year with a right flexor strain. Injuries are tough, but Romo seems to have recovered fine. The second is that those 88 innings came across 110 appearances; Sergio Romo has become something of a righty specialist.</p>
<p>He never threw hard (averaging around 88 mph), but his fastball has fallen now to approximately 87mph on average. Thankfully, Romo throws about 60 percent sliders. The nasty breaker has heldped hold righties to a line of .191/.213/.326 over the last couple of years, with a 38 percent strikeout rate.</p>
<p>As long as he is kept mostly away from lefties, Romo could have a ton of value for not a lot of money.</p>
<h3>Lefthanded Pitchers</h3>
<h4>Boone Logan</h4>
<p>It’s amazing that Logan wasn’t moved at last year’s trade deadline. Colorado wasn’t going anywhere, and lots of teams (the Blue Jays chief among them) could have used some left-handed help.</p>
<p>Logan absolutely owns lefties. Over the last two years pitching in Coors field he has held lefthanded batters to a line of .172/.276/.254, with with a 34 percent strikeout rate. That’s elite. He get lefties out using a ton of sliders (55 percent) that he mixes with a solid fastball that sits at approximately 94 mph. As a specialist, he will occasionally hit lefties (seven in the last two years), but that overall line is still excellent.</p>
<p>Logan was actually somewhat serviceable against righties last year as well, but his history suggests that they hit him pretty hard. He’s a specialist, but he’s a great one.</p>
<h4>Travis Wood</h4>
<p>Because he is capable of starting, Wood might command more money than the Jays would be willing to pay, but he’d be a great fit.</p>
<p>Over the last two years as a reliever (he made nine starts in 2015), Wood has posted a 2.95 ERA with 118 K in 119 IP. During that time, lefthanded hitters must have dreaded coming to the plate against the 5’11” southpaw. They managed a measly line of .183/.257/.252. He actually also held righties somewhat in check with a .238/.317/.435 line, which would bode well if he were forced into a situation where he doesn’t have the platoon advantage.</p>
<p>The downside to Wood is that he doesn’t get a ton of strikeouts, and is a heavy flyball pitcher. Still, his overall mastery of lefties and his ability to start in an emergency make him a viable addition.</p>
<h4>Mike Dunn</h4>
<p>I would wager that a lot of Jays fans have never heard of Dunn. Pitching in Miami and not racking up saves tends to lead to someone being ignored. He dealt with some injuries last year (missed time with a forearm strain), but he throws quite hard (averages around 95 mph) and gets a lot of strikeouts (10 k/9 for his career).</p>
<p>He’s not as much of a lefty destroyer as the previous entries on this list, but he has still held them to a .228/.309/.330 line for his career with a 26.3 percent strikeout rate. What makes him especially useful is that he is viable against RHBs as well (.239/.339/.408) and can get big strikeouts of both hitters in a key spot.</p>
<p>He had some command issues earlier in his career, but has gotten his walk rate under 10 percent in each of the last three seasons.</p>
<h4>Javier Lopez</h4>
<p>Lopez has been a standout lefty reliever for the Giants for a numbers of years, but he may be reaching the end of his rope. At 39 years of age (and turning 40 in July), Lopez saw his season ERA rise from 1.60 in 2015 (and 2.36 since 2010) to 4.05 in 2016. This was probably due to a was a career low velocity on his fastball (84.9 mph) and slider (78.3 mph).</p>
<p>So why is he on the list?</p>
<p>He can still get lefties out. He’s no longer the best lefty specialist in baseball, as he has been for the last few years, but he can still hold them down. Even in his poor year with the lost velocity, Lopez still held lefthanded hitters to a line of .208/.315/.312.</p>
<p>If the Jays use him properly, that has value. He just can’t face righties the way he used to. They absolutely torched Lopez last year (.348/.464/.522). Because he is completely exposed when facing an opposite sided hitter (far worse than anybody else on this list), he is a last resort. He’s really only useful against guys like Chris Davis, Robinson Cano, and other lefties for whom their managers will never pinch hit.</p>
<p>That concludes the RP buyer&#8217;s guide Is there anybody who you think should&#8217;ve been on this list that wasn&#8217;t? Let me know in the comments.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>This Week in Blue Jays: Don&#8217;t Be Beholden to Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/this-week-in-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/this-week-in-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 14 Nov 2016 11:00:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[This Week in Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Agent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7908</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Amidst rumours regarding their top two free agents that had been swirling all week, the Toronto Blue Jays signed designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33-million contract on Friday in a move that many believe effectively ends their pursuit of Edwin Encarnacion. The surprise signing came at the end of a week during which [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Amidst rumours regarding their top two free agents that had been swirling all week, the Toronto Blue Jays signed designated hitter Kendrys Morales to a three-year, $33-million contract on Friday in a move that many believe effectively ends their pursuit of Edwin Encarnacion.</p>
<p>The surprise signing came at the end of a week during which everyone from the front office to agents had added to the noise surrounding the Jays’ interest in and pursuit of re-signing Encarnacion and Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>As is their job, Paul Kinzer and Jay Alou, who are Encarncion’s and Bautista’s agents respectively, have both been vocal with the local media. Kinzer has been adamant that his client wishes to return to the Jays, stating that Toronto is Encarnacion’s preferred destination. While the reported asking price for Encarnacion is believed to be a whopping $125 million over five years, Bautista’s camp appears more flexible given the offensive downturn during his injury-plagued 2016 season. Alou has gone as far as stating that Bautista feels as though he has “unfinished business” in Toronto and is willing to play a myriad of positions, suggesting that perhaps there has been little interest in him on the open market.</p>
<p>While Jays’ general manager Ross Atkins has insisted that re-signing Encarnacion is a priority and reportedly made a push to do so, he stated in an interview on Tuesday that, “offers often times come on and off tables”, suggesting that perhaps whatever offer had been extended had an expiration date – which, according to Sportsnet’s Shi Davidi, has <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-begin-lineup-retooling-effort-morales-signing/" target="_blank">been confirmed by sources</a>.</p>
<p>While there are some in Toronto’s fan base who will interpret this as the front office walking away from negotiations, this was a bold tactical move on the part of the Jays, who have effectively situated themselves in the negotiation drivers’ seat. With a relatively weak free agent class and several on-field needs that must be addressed this offseason, the Jays cannot afford to sit around and wait while Encarnacion engages with other suitors – which, of course, he <em>should</em> do, given that this is his one shot at a long-term lucrative deal. But, that doesn’t mean the Jays should wait for him to make his decision before pursuing alternatives.</p>
<p>That’s not to say that Morales is the answer to what ails the Jays. The thirty-three year old Morales had a slash line of 263/.327/.468 with 30 home runs and for Kansas City last season, which is home to one of the more pitcher-friendly ballparks in baseball. In twenty-eight career games (105 at-bats) played at the Rogers Centre, Morales has hit .276/.330/.438 with an OPS of .769.</p>
<p>While he certainly will not replace the offensive production of Encarnacion, who hit .263/.357/.529 with 42 home runs last season, he provides a modicum of lineup flexibility in that he is a switch-hitter with relatively equal career splits from either side of the plate. The downside is that he is incredibly slow – he has stolen just four bases during his decade in the majors – and is not an option to play the field, even at first base.</p>
<p>What is of greater importance, however, is that if signing Morales does indeed signify the end of the Encarnacion era in Toronto, the Jays have managed to replace some of that offense at a fraction of the price, providing them with the flexibility to pursue other needs, such as two corner outfielders.</p>
<p>That’s not to say that the Blue Jays are completely out on Encarnacion. <a href="https://twitter.com/rwesthead/status/797554651734409217%20" target="_blank">Rick Westhead of TSN quoted</a> Paul Kinzer yesterday as saying that the two sides were still talking and that both sides consider Encarnacion to be a first baseman, thus signing Morales does not preclude them from signing Edwin.</p>
<p>The question is, <em>should</em> they sign Edwin. Based purely on offensive statistics, the answer is an unequivocal yes. He is the best bat on the free agent market and his 99 runs scored plus 127 runs driven in represent 29.8% of the team’s 759 runs last season. Given that a lack of run production is what cost them a shot at the World Series, the Jays can ill-afford to squander run production. And, considering the black hole that is Justin Smoak at the plate, the Jays are going to need at the very least a platoon first baseman. Re-signing Encarnacion would solve these two problems with one fell swoop.</p>
<p>However, Edwin’s reported asking price of $25 million for each of the next five seasons is, in a word, steep. As <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-begin-lineup-retooling-effort-morales-signing/" target="_blank">Davidi points out</a>, the Jays currently have $117.3 million guaranteed to ten players next season, which will end up closer to $123.2 million including arbitration projections. They began 2016 with a payroll of approximately $134 million, which rose to approximately $148 million by the end of the season. Mark Shapiro has all but stated openly that they have more payroll to work with for the 2017 season, and one can reasonably expect the opening day payroll in 2017 to be north of $155 million. That leaves roughly $33 million to allocate towards the corner outfield positions, first base, a backup catcher and bullpen pieces.</p>
<p>The notion that the Jays should simply shell out whatever it takes to retain Encarnacion is reckless.  Whether fans like it or not, baseball is a business. And, like all businesses, there is a budget. It’s fine to believe that the payroll should be within the top five in baseball – the fact that the Jays surpassed three million people in attendance last season certainly suggests that to be true – but that negates the reality of corporate ownership. It also ignores the fact that payroll is not necessarily indicative of success. Cleveland, for instance, was twenty-first in payroll last season but was top five in runs scored. And, given the fact that no other team has offered Encarnacion what he&#8217;s hoping to get, including the Boston Red Sox, who were thought to be a likely destination for the aging slugger, one can assume that it isn&#8217;t just the Jays who value him differently than he values himself.</p>
<p>There are many fans who, of course, want Encarnacion to return because of his sentimental value. He’s “our” guy; affable and humble while hitting bombs and running around the bases sporting the Edwing. He’s one of the best hitters in baseball, and he <em>loves</em> Toronto; he wants to <em>stay</em> in Toronto. That’s all well and good, but the bottom line is he wants to get <em>paid</em>. And, that’s fine; he deserves to get paid, but not at the expense of whatever else the team still needs to do. As written by Davidi, Mark Shapiro, “made it clear there’s a balance to be drawn between a player’s past meaning to a club and his future worth.” In other words, one cannot get caught up in what a player has accomplished in the past when evaluating his worth in the future. While Encarnacion may continue to be productive over the next two or three years, in all likelihood, the team would have to eat his salary in the last year or two as he&#8217;s on the decline. That&#8217;s fine if ownership wants to be in the top five in payroll; Shapiro has made it clear that that&#8217;s not the case.</p>
<p>To re-sign Encarnacion to the detriment of what else this team needs to accomplish this season would be foolish. Instead, the Jays can spend wisely and allocate their money towards players who will not only provide roster flexibility, but whose contracts will not outlive their productive value. The Jays are said to be <a href="https://twitter.com/jonmorosi/status/797128453690720256?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw" target="_blank">kicking tires on both</a> Dexter Fowler and Josh Reddick, both of whom would fulfill their outfield needs while providing a different look at the plate (Fowler is a switch-hitter, while Reddick is a lefty).  Meanwhile, they are <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/797489616517533696" target="_blank">rumoured as being interested in</a> Steve Pearce as a guy to platoon with Smoak at first base.</p>
<p>With that in mind, consider this: the Jays could also re-sign forgotten man Jose Bautista to play first base at a relatively reasonable cost.</p>
<p>The bottom line is, the front office has an obligation to field the best team possible within the confines of their budget. Fans most certainly have their favourite players, with Encarncion chief among them. But, there&#8217;s a bottom line, both in terms of what the team is willing to spend on a particular player, and in terms of what a fan ultimately wants. I think it&#8217;s safe to say that, as a fan, the bottom line is for the Jays to field a winning team. If they can do that without re-signing Edwin Encarnacion, then all will be forgiven.</p>
<p>Because, let&#8217;s face it. This fan base has had its favourites. The Carols Delgado&#8217;s and Roy Halladay&#8217;s have come and gone, and yet, the fans still flock to the field. Why? Because this fan base wants to support a winning team, regardless of who puts on the uniform. Win, and the fans will flock to the field. Win, and they will buy the merchandise. Win, and this city will engage in celebrations that will surpass those of twenty-three years ago.</p>
<p>I want Edwin to remain a Blue Jay. I really do. But, not at all costs. Not at the cost of all the other holes this team needs to fill. I will applaud this team if they can fit Encarnacion into their budget.</p>
<p>But, I will cheer louder if this team can win, regardless of who steps on the field on Opening Day.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jeff Griffith-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Creative Ways to Navigate the Weak Free Agent Market</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/09/creative-ways-to-navigate-the-weak-free-agent-market/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/09/creative-ways-to-navigate-the-weak-free-agent-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Nov 2016 14:05:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McCutchen]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[carlos gomez]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s no secret that the 2017 free agent market isn&#8217;t quite as strong as we&#8217;ve seen in recent years. MLB Trade Rumours predicts that just one free agent, Yoenis Cespedes, will receive a contract for more than $100 million when last season, MLBTR predicted that nine free agents would receive more than $100 million, with seven of them [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s no secret that the 2017 free agent market isn&#8217;t quite as strong as we&#8217;ve seen in recent years. <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html" target="_blank">MLB Trade Rumours predicts</a> that just one free agent, Yoenis Cespedes, will receive a contract for more than $100 million when last season, <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html" target="_blank">MLBTR predicted</a> that nine free agents would receive more than $100 million, with <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016-mlb-free-agent-tracker/contract_amount_operator-2__contract_amount-100000000" target="_blank">seven of them surpassing that mark</a>. What&#8217;s the result of poor prospects for free agency? It&#8217;s likely that you&#8217;re going to get a lot of players who&#8217;ll be paid a good amount more than they&#8217;re worth. Now, if you&#8217;re the Toronto Blue Jays, and you just surpassed 3,000,000 in attendance for the first time since 1993, you can probably afford to overpay for a few key free agents. But, should you? That&#8217;s a more precarious question.</p>
<p>At present, the Jays are in an interesting position. From a psychological standpoint, the core of this Blue Jays team will be gone if Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion go to other teams. However, from a performance standpoint, the core will still be here. Between Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, and more, the Blue Jays have enough to do well, but perhaps not enough for a playoff spot.</p>
<p>Also, because many of the Blue Jays&#8217; biggest stars (most notably Josh Donaldson) aren&#8217;t under club control for much longer, the tendency would be to make a statement to win now. But, the Blue Jays squad isn&#8217;t entirely of the old guard; there&#8217;s a new wave of talent on the horizon with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Devon Travis, and a robust prospect base in the lower minors. Given that, and the fact that the top end of free agency will cost more in the long term than its worth, the Blue Jays will need to get creative.</p>
<p>Here are four ways that they can do that:</p>
<h4>Get Trading</h4>
<p>At the moment, we&#8217;re still waiting for the trade market to fully develop for the offseason, but there should be a few key pieces available. Kyle Matte wrote about <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/02/andrew-mccutchen-a-wise-investment/" target="_blank">one such candidate</a> last week: Andrew McCutchen. While McCutchen is one candidate, he&#8217;s representative of the type of player that might be up for trade as the offseason progresses. The Pirates are one of a handful of teams that disappointed, and fell at or below .500 in 2016. Others include the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Marlins, Royals, and White Sox. Each have a few valuable commodities, but will have to decide whether they can do enough to improve with what&#8217;s available internally, or on the market.</p>
<p>However, the Blue Jays may run in to a trading issue with so few of their top prospects having reached the upper minors. In fact, just three of <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#FMtfQDczrrFdAXue.97" target="_blank">Baseball America&#8217;s Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects</a> played at all in the upper minors last season. And those who did (Connor Greene, Rowdy Tellez, and Richard Urena), don&#8217;t project out as supertars. That&#8217;ll make trying to get a top trade piece very tough if the Blue Jays don&#8217;t want to part with someone currently expected to make the 2017 major league roster. Although that doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s impossible; the new Blue Jays&#8217; front office&#8217;s trade for Liriano at the deadline <em>was</em> pretty crafty.</p>
<h4>Look into a Platoon</h4>
<p>It&#8217;ll be incredibly hard for any one player not-named Edwin Encarnacion to fill in for the production that the Blue Jays&#8217; got from the DH/1B spot last season. Joshua Howsam tried his hand at <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/08/under-the-radar-free-agent-options/" target="_blank">finding a few such players</a> yesterday, but even the best of the bunch would be a downgrade on their own. However, the solution for a number of present holes could be a strict platoon, something that the Jays utilized very little of in 2016.</p>
<p>In his piece, Joshua went over a couple of the platoon options at DH, in Brandon Moss and Pedro Alvarez. However, the same thinking could be applied when considering another outfielder. Desmond Jennings, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Heisey are a few options who&#8217;ve historically hit left handed pitchers at an above average clip. Matt Joyce, Daniel Nava, and Colby Rasmus (!) are a few options who&#8217;ve historically hit right handed pitchers at an above average clip. Granted, any platoon comes with some risk as you&#8217;re operating in smaller samples, but there is abundant choice from which to pick.</p>
<h4>Bet on Defence</h4>
<p>In 2016, the Blue Jays did anything but bet on defence when it came to the outfield. Sure, there was (and still is) defensive superstar Kevin Pillar. But he was forced to cover up ground lost by the 36-year-old right fielder with only an arm to offer and the 29-year-old left fielder recovering from a knee injury. With the free-agent market&#8217;s top hitters set to garner big dollars, looking to a player with a greater defensive balance  would be an upside play.</p>
<p>This method, while potentially effective, is also admittedly risky. It&#8217;s hard enough to perdict how your own player will perform defensively in any given season, let alone gauging the defense of a free agent. However, if the Blue Jays <em>were</em> to go this route an option like Carlos Gomez exists.</p>
<p>In addition to having an uptick in offensive performance once he joined the Rangers late in the season, Carlos Gomez has historically been a great defender. The advanced defensive metrics don&#8217;t show it last season, but I&#8217;m willing to bet that an ex-<a href="http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-2013-winners.asp" target="_blank">Fielding Bible Award</a> winner in centre field could once again be elite if placed in an outfield corner.</p>
<h4>Go Big, But Short-Term</h4>
<p>The last option bucks the trend of avoiding the big players on the free agent market. In this scenario, one can attempt to envision that the Blue Jays sign the likes of Neil Walker, Wilson Ramos, or Jose Bautista, and that it be a valuable contract. Each of those three players has 2016 baggage; injuries in the cases of Walker and Ramos and poor performance in the case of Bautista. As such, they may be willing to take a deal akin to that of the one that Yoenis Cespedes signed with the New York Mets last offseason.</p>
<p>That deal would have a big short term payout, but the contract would only be for one season, or would include an opt-out clause after one season. Admittedly, this makes more sense for Walker and Ramos than it does for Bautista, who&#8217;s substantially older than the other pair. But any such deal of the Cespedes nature would allow the Blue Jays to flex their financial muscle in the short term, without taking on too much money that could be better spent later.</p>
<p>Of course, given the Jays&#8217; strong showing both on the diamond and in the TV ratings in 2016, none of these options should be necessary. However, they do offer an alternative to a free agent market that otherwise has little value to be found at the top. If the team were solely looking for a piece to put them over the top, then perhaps it would make sense to take the hit and grab a Cespedes, Fowler, or Encarnacion. But, with a few holes on the roster, and a rotation that could see some regression (merely on the basis of health), the big play may not make sense.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>10 Under the Radar Free Agent Options for the Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/08/under-the-radar-free-agent-options/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 08 Nov 2016 12:00:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Free Agent]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kendrys Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Mike Napoli]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Neil Walker]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Wilson Ramos]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[With teams finally able to negotiate with free agents from other clubs, the news is soon to be flooded with stories of team interest, contract demands, and the ever-present &#8216;Mystery Team&#8217;. From a Blue Jays standpoint, it will likely mean constant stories about the two big bats, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and endless rumours [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With teams finally able to negotiate with free agents from other clubs, the news is soon to be flooded with stories of team interest, contract demands, and the ever-present &#8216;Mystery Team&#8217;. From a Blue Jays standpoint, it will likely mean constant stories about the two big bats, Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion, and endless rumours surrounding their free agency. Heck, it has already started with Rick Westhead reporting that <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/agent-encarnacion-worth-as-much-as-125-million-over-five-years-1.602298" target="_blank">Encarnacion is looking for a five year deal for $125M</a>.</p>
<p>The sad truth is that both Joey Bats and the man who was once derisively nicknamed &#8216;E5&#8242; are possibly long for other franchises. As such, the attention will likely turn, at least partially, towards potential replacements.</p>
<p>There are some obviously ideal options, such as Dexter Fowler, Yoenis Cespedes, and Justin Turner, but those players will all have plenty of suitors in a free agent market lacking in stars. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t want the Blue Jays to go after these players (we absolutely should), but at the same time it would be good to keep other options in mind some options that are cheaper. <em>In no particular order</em>, here are ten under the radar free agent options that the Blue Jays could/should consider to augment the 2017 club (and beyond).</p>
<h4>10. Luis Valbuena</h4>
<p>I imagine many people reading this were not expecting to see Luis on this list, as this is a man that was once released so the Blue Jays could hold onto the carcass of Omar Vizquel, but Valbuena has turned himself into a very valuable player.</p>
<p>Valbuena’s original “breakout” occurred in 2014 with the Cubs, when he hit .249/.341/.435 in 149 games, with 16 home runs and 33 doubles. He followed that up with an interesting campaign with Houston where he saw a power spike (25 HR), but it was accompanied by a dip in average/on-base, as he ended the season with a line of .224/.310/.438.</p>
<p>Then finally this year, it seemed as though Valbuena was putting things all together. Through the first 90 games, he was hitting .260/.357/.459 with 13 HR. One of the biggest changes for Valbuena was that he lowered his chase rate from 26.1 percent in 2015 to 21.7 in 2016. Not only did this help raise his walk rate to 12.9 percent, but it also got him into more hitters&#8217; counts to do damage. Unfortunately for him, Valbuena&#8217;s big year was cut short when he suffered a season-ending hamstring injury that required surgery.</p>
<p>However, Valbuena’s misfortune could be his new team’s gain. With the injury-shortened season, he likely won’t be getting any sort of long term deal. He also offers plenty of position flexibility, as while he played mostly third base the last couple of years, he is more than capable at first base and can even handle second base. Given his athleticism, it also wouldn’t be a shock if Valbuena could handle an outfield corner with regularity. If the Jays sign him to cover first base, he would be more than capable of filling in for Donaldson on days when he needs a rest and his flexibility would also provide the team with more options to filter players through first base and the DH slot.</p>
<p>In addition, as a left-handed batter he would provide the team with a little more left-right balance; something the team has openly said they are targeting in this offseason. He does struggle a bit against left-handed pitching (he’s not AWFUL, just not good), but at what will likely be a very low cost, the team can afford that.</p>
<h4>9. Matt Holliday</h4>
<p>Holliday is something of an interesting study. Outside of St Louis, many people probably forget that he’s still in the league. He’s not young (he’ll play next season at 37), he gets hurt a bit, and he&#8217;s always been somewhat unassuming as a person. But, he can hit.</p>
<p>Holliday is coming off a subpar season that included a broken thumb, but he&#8217;s been pretty much a lock for 20 plus home runs, a solid batting average and on-base, and has shown no platoon splits in his career. For a team that leans heavily right-handed, the ability to hit both sides well is of great value.</p>
<p>He can still play the outfield somewhat (after seeing Saunders and Bautista all year, the standards are much lower), but would probably be ideal as a designated hitter. Holliday could also easily shift to first base, which he started playing last year for the first time. If the Jays had Valbuena, this could be done when Donaldson needs a rest day at DH, or when the team is facing a tough left-hander. Either way, Holliday would be the type of bat that can move around just enough to be valuable.</p>
<h4>8. Carlos Beltran</h4>
<p>It might be a stretch to call Beltran an under the radar pickup, as he&#8217;s an acknowledged star, but there’s a reason he fits this list: he&#8217;s old.</p>
<p>For a team that wants to get younger, signing a guy who will play next season at 40 may not seem like a wise idea. However, he’s also a switch-hitter with power who takes walks and doesn’t strike out a ton. Without the youth, that’s pretty much exactly what this team is looking for.</p>
<p>He hit .295/.337/.513 in 2016 with New York and Texas, and also hits just as well from the right side as he does from the left. By sticking him into the middle of a lineup, the Jays could avoid platoon matchups that can plague a team late in games if they lean too hard to one side.</p>
<p>The Jays had interest in Beltran back before he signed with St. Louis, but he reportedly turned them down due to an unwillingness to play outfield full time on turf and no desire to be a designated hitter. Obviously neither of those things matter anymore, as Beltran spent more time at DH than in the field two of the last three years. That being said, he has still logged plenty of time in the outfield, and while he’s no longer a good defender (or even an average one), he can still fill in there if necessary.</p>
<h4>7. Kendrys Morales</h4>
<p>Like Beltran, Morales&#8217; best defensive days are behind him. Once a viable option at 1B and the OF, he is now strictly a DH. But, like Beltran, it doesn’t really matter. Morales is paid to hit, and he’s quite good at it.</p>
<p>He’s not the star people thought he’d become before an unlucky broken leg (on <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/topic/0/v8473485/sea-laa-morales-hits-walk-off-slam-hurt-celebrating" target="_blank">a walk-off grand slam celebration</a>) took away over a year of his career, but he can still provide plenty of value at the plate. Morales hit .290/.362/.485 in 2015, and then .263/.327/.468 this year, which included a .296/.357/.531 line from June 1st until the end of the year. Keep in mind that half of those games were at Kaufmann Stadium, a notorious pitchers&#8217; park.</p>
<p>Morales also still has plenty of power, hitting 30 home runs in 2016, following a season of 22 home runs and 41 doubles in 2015. Most of that power this year came against left-handers, but it was the reverse last year. In fact, like Beltran again, Morales has no real platoon split throughout his career.</p>
<p>The difference between the two power switch-hitters is that Morales is fully confined to designated hitter, but also younger and less at risk of missing time for injury. He declined his half of an $11.5M option and didn’t receive a qualifying offer. As a result, he won&#8217;t be overly cheap, but also won&#8217;t be super pricey.</p>
<h4>6. Neil Walker</h4>
<p>Walker is something of an out-of-the-box suggestion in that he is a primary second baseman, and has been for his entire career. The Jays are pretty set in that area (assuming Travis recovers from his postseason injury).</p>
<p>However, Walker does have power and has been an above average hitter for his entire career. The 31 year old was also on the way to career season in 2016 with 23 home runs and a .282/.347/.476 line through 113 games before a back injury forced him to the 60-day DL. If he is fully recovered and would be willing to move to first base, Walker would provide a solid switch-hitting bat who once again shows no real heavy platoon splits (though is slightly better from the left side)</p>
<p>He would also provide nice insurance if Travis can’t stay healthy at second base, with Justin Smoak in the lineup instead of Darwin Barney or Ryan Goins.</p>
<p>The hiccup here is that the Mets gave Walker a qualifying offer, so his signing would cost the Jays a draft pick. But, if they’re playing in this water, they’ve probably already gained two picks from EE and Bautista, so it shouldn’t be a huge problem.</p>
<h4>5. Wilson Ramos</h4>
<p>Signing Ramos would have seemed outlandish as recently as mid-September; Ramos was set to hit the market as an elite-level catcher at age 29. Instead, his right ACL gave out for the second time, and he is now talking about <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/09/wilson-ramos-discusses-knee-injury.html" target="_blank">needing to find a team that can let him DH from time to time</a>.</p>
<p>When healthy this year, Ramos seemed to be put it all together. He hit .307/.354/.496 in 132 games, while continuing to be a solid receiver who shuts down the running game (40% CS). He may miss some early season time, but Ramos would make a perfect DH and part-time catcher while he prepares for a return to full-time catching duties in 2018. That would solve both the DH and backup catcher holes in one go.</p>
<p>The biggest downside is that Ramos may not be ready in time for spring training due to his surgery.</p>
<h4>3. and 4. Brandon Moss/Pedro Alvarez</h4>
<p>When it comes to lefties with platoon issues, these two hitters offer very similar production. They are going to hit a lot of homers, as they hit 50 long balls between them in 790 PA this season. Neither fits the apparent overall doctrine of getting faster, but when used optimally, the two thumpers can give teams fits. In a strict platoon last year, Alvarez hit .249/.322/.504. Moss saw more PA vs LHPs (against whom he posted a .664 OPS), but did plenty of damage against RHPs with a .223/.303/.525 line.</p>
<p>Each has advantages over the other. Alvarez is younger, but Moss is actually a passable corner outfielder in small doses. As such, Moss is probably the more suitable candidate.</p>
<p>Both of these men would require a platoon partner of some kind&#8230;</p>
<h4>2. Steve Pearce</h4>
<p>That platoon partner? Right here. Pearce would be a perfect fit with the Jays. He owns left-handed pitching (.263/.359/.499 for his career), and he can play first, second, third, left, and right. This versatility is important, as Justin Smoak&#8217;s presence on the roster as a 1B-only backup necessitates the need for platoon options to play multiple positions.</p>
<p>Pearce is also serviceable enough against righties that he can spell players all over the diamond and still end up playing 100-120 games if he stays healthy. He&#8217;s currently recovering from a major surgery, which could hurt his market and make him more likely to accept a part time role.</p>
<h4>1. Mike Napoli</h4>
<p>Napoli is sort of the right-handed version of the Alvarez/Moss duo (though he&#8217;s not hopeless against same-sided pitchers). He won’t hit for average and takes plenty of walks, but his main calling card is power. He is coming off a season in which he set career highs in many offensive categories (including home runs with 34), and played 150 games for the first time in his career.</p>
<p>A one-time catcher, Napoli has proven himself average as a first baseman, but is also very comfortable in the DH-role. However, with the Cleveland World Series run and his big season, look for Napoli to command dollars that are beyond some of the others on this list. If he comes cheap, though, the Blue Jays should absolutely be involved.</p>
<p>None of these players is going to replicate what the Jays got from Encarnacion, and only some will match Bautista’s 2016 contribution, but all of them would represent upgrades to the roster and can help this team. If Toronto can sign two or three of them, the lineup should be strong again in 2017.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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