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	<title>Toronto &#187; Ezequiel Carerra</title>
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		<title>Blue Jays Avoid Arbitration with Ezequiel Carrera; Raise Floor in Outfield</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/12/blue-jays-avoid-arbitration-with-ezequiel-carrera-raise-floor-in-outfield/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/12/blue-jays-avoid-arbitration-with-ezequiel-carrera-raise-floor-in-outfield/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Jan 2018 14:33:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14903</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Thursday night, the Toronto Blue Jays came to terms with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera on a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. The Blue Jays, a file-and-trial team, have a 1:00 pm ET deadline on Friday by which they must either reach an agreement or exchange figures with all of their arbitration eligible players. After this [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Thursday night, the Toronto Blue Jays came to terms with outfielder Ezequiel Carrera on a one-year contract to avoid arbitration. The Blue Jays, a file-and-trial team, have a 1:00 pm ET deadline on Friday by which they must either reach an agreement or exchange figures with all of their arbitration eligible players. After this deadline the club will only consider multi-year extensions in lieu of seeing the arbitration process through.</p>
<p>The one-year, $1.9 million contract signed by Carrera makes sense in a vacuum, and in fact is exactly what he was <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html">projected to receive</a> by MLB Trade Rumors back in October. The outfielder made $1.2 million when first eligible for arbitration last winter and the $700,000 raise is fair and reflective of his .282/.356/.408 performance in 131 games played in 2017.</p>
<p>Carrera has been worth 1.6 WARP over 827 plate appearances (1.2 WARP/600) across three seasons in Toronto, which cements him in the “good bench player but not someone you should rely upon as a starter” category. What makes this signing slightly unsettling for some Blue Jays fans, however, is that alongside Kevin Pillar and Steve Pearce, Carrera makes three outfielders signed to, or soon to be signed to, major league deals. The outfield still needs help on the top end and this agreement doesn’t preclude a run at the highly sought after Lorenzo Cain, but it could potentially take away opportunities in the short term from a quartet of young outfielders.</p>
<p>For arguments sake, let’s say the Blue Jays sign Lorenzo Cain and he agrees to be the everyday right fielder. With Kevin Pillar’s defensive prowess buying him another season in center, left field falls into the hands of another Pearce and Carrera platoon, with the optionable contracts of Teoscar Hernandez, Dalton Pompey, Dwight Smith, and Anthony Alford all bound for the minor leagues. That’s not necessarily a bad thing.</p>
<p>At this very moment, given that we simply haven’t seen enough consistent performance at the highest level to blindly depend on them, I don’t think anyone would argue that a bit of seasoning in Buffalo or New Hampshire would hurt any of the four. But what if Teoscar Hernandez spends the month of March crushing balls around Florida Auto Exchange Stadium and looks a whole lot like the guy who had 14 extra base hits and a .302 TAv in September? What if Anthony Alford is an on-base machine and appears to be the ideal solution to the revolving door of leadoff hitters the club struggled with last season?</p>
<p>What this Carrera signing does is raise the floor for the outfield jobs and almost perfectly encapsulates the <em>modus operandi</em> of the Shapiro and Atkins tenure: protect from the replacement level through low risk options without suppressing the <i>ceiling</i> of the roster. Having Carrera in place for $1.9 million pushes Teoscar Hernandez and Anthony Alford to earn the job and supplant the veteran, rather than running the risk of an under prepared rookie getting the job by default. If the best case scenario occurs and space needs to be made available for Hernandez and/or Alford in the short term, one or both of Pearce and Carrera can be sent to the bench, or to another organization altogether thanks to their cost-effective contracts.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Angles In The Outfield: How the Jays Can Survive With Their Current Outfield</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/08/angles-in-the-outfield-how-the-jays-could-survive-with-the-current-outfield/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 08 Jan 2018 11:21:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dave Church]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14851</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention: Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In a mostly barren offseason (so far) for the Blue Jays, recent comments from general manager Ross Atkins (parsed in tweet form here by Sportsnet&#8217;s Arden Zwelling) drew some attention:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Atkins on Blue Jays outfield: “We feel like we could start the season with the outfielders that we have. But we’ll definitely look to see if there’s a way to upgrade or complement in our outfield.”</p>
<p>&mdash; Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/949781617106546688?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">January 6, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The focus from some was on the first part of the quote, where Atkins said they felt like they could start the season with the outfielders they have. While he goes on to say they do want to upgrade, it was the first half that drew the most attention and the most ire from fans.</p>
<p>Given the state of the Jays outfield, that reaction is understandable. There are no stars in this bunch and not much in the way of established regulars. Kevin Pillar is probably the best of them and that&#8217;s not a great spot for a team that has designs on contending. Pillar is a fine defender in centre field, but has established himself as a below average hitter at this point. Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s career year still had him just under 1 WARP in 131 games, Steve Pearce hits well, defends poorly and can&#8217;t stay healthy, and Teoscar Hernandez, while a solid prospect, was deemed expendable by the World Series champion Astros. There are warts to be found here.</p>
<p>Assuming no upgrades (or that new Jay Yangervis Solarte won&#8217;t play the outfield for the first time since 2014), could the Jays enter the season with the outfield they have? Could they succeed? Let&#8217;s look at some scenarios where they could live, or even thrive, with the outfielders they have currently.</p>
<h3>And Teoscar Goes To&#8230; The Rogers Centre And Hits Dingers All The Time</h3>
<p>Even if Teoscar Hernandez wasn&#8217;t the brightest light in the Astros system, he was still a worthwhile prospect close to the major leagues &#8211; something the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t have a lot of when they acquired him. There were concerns: not fast enough to play centre field, not enough of a bat to play the corner, and he struck out a lot. But, again, the Jays weren&#8217;t in a position to be choosy. That they got an actual prospect for Francisco Liriano was amazing enough.</p>
<p>Hernandez had a solid showing for the Jays after being called up late in the season, hitting 8 home runs in just 95 at-bats. He did strike out 36 times, a concerning number for that amount of at-bats. And there&#8217;s the old adage about not believing anything you see in April and September.</p>
<p>Still, Hernandez is mostly a blank slate at the major league level, someone on whom the Jays can project hope and see the potential for something greater than what he&#8217;s shown so far. He COULD be a star. He could also struggle, as some prospects do in the their first actual shot at the majors. There&#8217;s a wide range of possible outcomes.</p>
<p>The other point to make is that Hernandez would essentially be replacing Jose Bautista. On the whole, it&#8217;s unlikely that Hernandez will ever get close to Bautista&#8217;s accomplishments in his career as a Blue Jay. But the 2017 version of Jose Bautista had an awful season, with a stat line of .203/.308/.366, good for a tAV of only .237. That&#8217;s not a terribly high bar to clear.</p>
<p>So we can say that Hernandez, given a wide open space in the lineup, could easily be better than the man he&#8217;s replacing. He could be a star. But what if he scuffles? What if he bounces between the majors and AAA? How else could the Jays outfield work as it is?</p>
<h3>A Carrera/Pearce Platoon Holds Serve</h3>
<p>There&#8217;s very little exciting about a potential Carrera/Pearce platoon in left field. But it could be worse. The 2017 Jays opened the season with both Carrera AND Pearce in the lineup. The theory was that Pearce would split his time between first base and left field and Carrera would start some in left while backing up in centre and right. We know how that went: Pearce got hurt, Justin Smoak became an all-star, and Carrera had a career year.</p>
<p>Carrera and Pearce are known quantities to Jays fans by this point, but that can be a good thing. They do have some contrasting skills. Pearce provides some right-handed power. Carrera bats left-handed, makes some contact, gets on base, and doesn&#8217;t completely embarrass himself in the field. There&#8217;s an easy platoon in that.</p>
<p>And it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need a lot from the left field position. 2 WARP would have been good enough for 16th in baseball among left fielders last season and Carrera and Pearce combined for nearly that between them. So while it&#8217;s unlikely that Carrera or Pearce will suddenly find another gear, it&#8217;s not as if the Jays need them to be that much better.</p>
<h3>The Rest Of The Lineup Improves</h3>
<p>This is the most likely scenario. When the Jays&#8217; lineup was a juggernaut in 2015, mauling opponents night in and night out, it was at least in part due to the depth of the lineup. Bautista, Edwin Encarnacion, and Josh Donaldson were the headliners, but them being great made it easier for the supporting cast to contribute. And when October rolled around, having the depth they had made it easier for them to carry the bat of someone like Ryan Goins, who hit only in theory during that playoff run.</p>
<p>When we look at the Jays&#8217; potential 2017 lineup, there are a lot of hitters. Donaldson and Smoak are the headliners, with Devon Travis and Russell Martin still able to bring value with the bat. Troy Tulowitzki is a question mark, and Kendrys Morales may have disappointed last season, but there&#8217;s pedigree in those names as guys who have been good previously and could potentially be that good again.</p>
<p>Another help for the lineup: the Jays are better insulated against injury. The acquisitions of Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte give them better depth if someone gets hurt again. There will be no more seeing Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins anchor the bottom of the order. Solarte could even be an outfield option, having spent time there in 2014.</p>
<p>So there&#8217;s a lot of ways the Jays could well stand pat with what they have and be fine in 2017. While the current outfield situation isn&#8217;t ideal, the Jays aren&#8217;t short of options. Ross Atkins is absolutely right: while the Jays should look to upgrade, they could absolutely start the season with what they have and be fine.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>Jose Bautista Takes a Trip on the Disabled List</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/17/jose-bautista-takes-a-trip-on-the-disabled-list/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/17/jose-bautista-takes-a-trip-on-the-disabled-list/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Jun 2016 20:11:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darrell Ceciliani]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carerra]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3927</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After injuring his toe during Thursday&#8217;s game against the Philadelphia Phillies, Jose Bautista will be spending at least the next 15 days on the disabled list. Replacing him on the roster will be Darrell Ceciliani, while Ezequiel Carrera will be taking his place in the starting lineup. Blue Jays have yet to announce anything officially but it&#39;s [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After injuring his toe during Thursday&#8217;s game against the Philadelphia Phillies, Jose Bautista will be spending at least the next 15 days on the disabled list. Replacing him on the roster will be Darrell Ceciliani, while Ezequiel Carrera will be taking his place in the starting lineup.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Blue Jays have yet to announce anything officially but it&#39;s a toe injury for Bautista; the big one on his left foot. X-rays were negative.</p>
<p>&mdash; Arden Zwelling (@ArdenZwelling) <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/743891659637809153">June 17, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Bautista, 35, has not been producing to the same levels in 2016 that Blue Jays fans have been used to, although he is still having a fine season. In 65 games played, Bautista has hit 12 home runs and hit .230/.360/.455.</p>
<p>Strangely, the man getting the call up is Darrell Ceciliani, and not Dalton Pompey. Ceciliani, 25, was a former top prospect with the New York Mets but did not have success in his cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2015. He hit .206/.270/279 in 75 plate appearances. In 2016 for the Buffalo Bisons, Ceciliani has hit .225/.279/.292. The thinking behind the move is likely that Ezequiel Carerra has been hot in 2016, and thus he &#8220;deserves&#8221; the starting spot in place of Bautista. Carrera has hit .330/.398/.443 in 99 plate appearances this season.</p>
<p>Of course, if the Blue Jays truly believe in Pompey, then no sample of less than 100 plate appearances should stop them from giving him a starting opportunity in the big leagues. Ezequiel Carerra&#8217;s previous 650 major league plate appearances likely represents his talent level, whereas there is still a lot to be determined about Daltom Pompey&#8217;s future.</p>
<p>Aside from the replacement potentially hurting the Blue Jays, this injury will definitely sting. The Blue Jays lineup has just been coming along, and losing a bat as big as Bautista&#8217;s will cause a loss in production. However, the good news is that some reinforcements could be on the way.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Some good news on the <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> injury front. John Gibbons says we may see Tulo here this weekend. Cecil will throw sim game on weekend</p>
<p>&mdash; Barry Davis (@SNBarryDavis) <a href="https://twitter.com/SNBarryDavis/status/743897850745098242">June 17, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Bautista will go for more tests soon, specifically &#8220;a &#8216;stress X-ray&#8217; possibly a CT scan and other tests to determine exact cause&#8221; according to <a href="https://twitter.com/gregorMLB/status/743899610943455234" target="_blank">Gregor Chisholm</a>.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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