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	<title>Toronto &#187; Dwight Smith Jr</title>
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		<title>Jonathan Davis and Dwight Smith Jr.: Making the Most of Limited Opportunity</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/09/26/young-outfielders-trying-to-make-the-most-of-limited-opportunity/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Sep 2018 10:49:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dwight Smith Jr]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jonathan Davis]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16760</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[NEW YORK – Even if the games have been completely meaningless from a competition standpoint, September baseball has been a breath of fresh air for the Blue Jays. The second half of the season has seen a number of encouraging debuts: from Ryan Borucki, Sean Reid-Foley and Thomas Pannone all taking turns through the rotation, to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NEW YORK – Even if the games have been completely meaningless from a competition standpoint, September baseball has been a breath of fresh air for the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>The second half of the season has seen a number of encouraging debuts: from Ryan Borucki, Sean Reid-Foley and Thomas Pannone all taking turns through the rotation, to Danny Jansen and Reese McGuire behind the plate. And, of course, there’s been the incredible hot start from Rowdy Tellez, who took the league by storm with his doubles barrage.</p>
<p>While that group has drawn the bulk of the headlines, the Blue Jays have also called up a pair of outfielders who are hoping to stake their claim to future spots with the big club: Jonathan Davis and Dwight Smith Jr. Playing time for the pair hasn’t quite been there to this point, with Smith making just one start in the seven games following the series opener in New York on September 14th, and the pair combining for six pinch-hitting or pinch-running appearances over that same timeframe.</p>
<p>Rowdy Tellez was put into the starting lineup against David Price on September 12<span style="font-size: 13.3333px">th</span>, with John Gibbons referring to the tough matchup as one of the challenges that players have to face if they’re to prove themselves as everyday options. In a manner of speaking &#8212; the direct quote was, “<a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/1039997281368461314" target="_blank">What, you think he&#8217;s a platoon player? If he&#8217;s going to be any good he&#8217;s got to play both ways</a>.” But the point stands. The same opportunities haven’t been extended to Smith and Davis just yet, as Gibbons juggles things around with a full outfield group.</p>
<p>“Well, you know what happens is we brought a lot of young kids up and you want to see them play, but you’ve still got your core group of guys that are going to be here next year themselves,&#8221; Gibbons explained. &#8220;Most of them haven’t had a full season but you still – they need to play their six months. So you can’t just sit them and play the other guys all the time, I don’t want to do that. So you know we’ve been trying to make sure they all get some kind of playing time. I think it’s going pretty good right now.”</p>
<p>The job of sorting out playing time in the outfield has been made more difficult by the solid play of Billy McKinney and Randal Grichuk, who figure to be part of the team’s long-term plans. Gibbons is hesitant to disrupt anyone’s rhythm, but is aware that those who aren’t getting consistent work deserve a chance to work into the same rhythm themselves.</p>
<p>“It can be tough if you’re a hitter, timing is everything with hitting, it can mess with that a little bit but you know what, they’ll figure it out,” Gibbons said. “You wish you could play all of them all the time but you can’t, but I do think it’s important they all get in there every so often.”</p>
<p>Neither Smith nor Davis said they had heard about how much they would play to close out the season, but that their primary focus was on showing up to work and helping the team win. If either could make a good impression over the final handful of games, it would give the Jays some additional hope in the outfield going forward. It&#8217;s a spot where the depth has been problematic for a few years running &#8212; a problem that was only exacerbated by Jose Bautista’s decline in right and the team’s revolving door of subpar defenders in the opposite corner.</p>
<p>When Steve Pearce hit the DL between games of a doubleheader on May 3<sup>rd</sup>, Smith came up in a corresponding move. He was optioned back to Triple A just one day later, with Dalton Pompey getting the call. The very next day saw Anthony Alford summoned from Buffalo. That duo would last on the roster for a full week before Pompey was returned to Buffalo on the 12<sup>th</sup>, with Alford getting sent down two days later. That brought the return of Smith, who would be sent down at the beginning of June. The next outfielder to join the Blue Jays was Darnell Sweeney, with Smith making another brief cameo before McKinney was added to the mix. It’s a crowded group without many sure things, and one that saw the addition of both Curtis Granderson and Grichuk in the preceding offseason.</p>
<p>While adding competition to the mix in Toronto didn’t have an immediate effect on the battle for playing time in the minors, it’s something that Davis couldn’t help but notice even, if it didn’t change his approach to the game.</p>
<p>“If you have a goal that you’re trying to reach and you see something or anything interfering with that of course it crosses your mind,&#8221; Davis said. &#8220;But at the end of the day you’ve got to realize that you can only do what you can do, you know what I mean? If you spend all your time worrying about what’s going on and things you can’t control, then you just miss out on getting better and miss out on progressing.”</p>
<p>Davis hasn’t missed out on any progression this year, blitzing Double A with a .302/.388/.443 line to go with five dingers and 19 steals in 78 games before getting promoted to Buffalo and then the majors, collecting his first big league hit in the process. While his numbers with the Bisons weren’t as good (.249/.308/.389 with five homers and nine steals in 46 games), the organization felt his season was strong enough to warrant a look in September – something that Davis wasn’t expecting to get.</p>
<p>“You’ve got some good players up here, man, and you’ve got some good players in the organization. Not saying that I didn’t want that to happen but I didn’t expect it because of the depth. It was an awesome feeling to get that call and to be able to contribute to this ballclub.”</p>
<p>The same can’t be said for Smith, who has had several cups of coffee with the Jays and always seems to get sent back down through no fault of his own. Entering Thursday night’s game against the Rays, Smith had hit .286/.358/.452 in 46 games at the MLB level, a continuation of his quality work with the bat throughout the minors. This season he went .268/.358/.413 in 85 games with the Bisons, with 32 of his 83 hits going for extra bases. Despite the early success, the team keeps Smith working on some select things whenever he’s demoted.</p>
<p>“They give me a couple things to work on but I just work on what I’ve been working on from the offseason. Taking it into the season, just trying to continue my good habits, working hard and just come in ready to play.”</p>
<p>Most young left-handers struggle with southpaw pitching early in their careers, and Smith was no different. He does differ, however, in that he seems to have handled the learning curve faster than most. In his first two years of pro ball, Smith collected just 20 hits in 109 ABs against left handed pitchers. He took a major step forward in 2014 with Dunedin, hitting .300 with 16 extra base hits and an OPS of .939 in 120 ABs. Things weren’t as kind in New Hampshire, as Smith hit .247 across 243 at-bats against lefties in 2015 and 2016. It certainly looks like things have clicked in Triple A, however, as Smith picked up a slash line of .321/.378/.440 in 109 ABs against southpaws in 2017 and has followed that up with .282/.364/.398 marks in 102 ABs this season. Smith says a lot of his recent success has to do with learning to be more selective in his approach.</p>
<p>“I started laying off of pitchers’ pitches and started hitting pitches that I wanted to hit and not chase as much. That helped me a lot, because my first time in Double A I feel like pitchers pitched different than I was accustomed to in the past and I just got used to it.”</p>
<p>Beyond his relative success against left-handed pitching, that patience has always manifested itself in sterling on-base and walk numbers. To this point his career-low OBP is .332, aside from a .279 mark in his very first taste of pro ball back in 2012. This year, Smith had 44 walks and 53 strikeouts with Buffalo.</p>
<p>While Smith’s numbers are hard to ignore, it’s not exactly easy to stand out in a crowded outfield mix at Buffalo that also featured Davis, Pompey, Alford and speedster Roemon Fields. That has lead to some competition for playing time, both in Buffalo and theoretically at the next level, but the fact that all of them are battling for the same spots hasn’t affected their relationship with one another.</p>
<p>“It was all good between all of us. We all got along pretty fine, we did stuff on and off the field. We became buddies throughout the minor leagues before we all landed on the same team so it was second nature. I thought it was pretty fun and seeing everybody do well is always awesome.”</p>
<p>Davis believes that the healthy competition is good for the entire group, adding, “We’re all pretty much boys. Come to the field every day to work. We enjoy going out there and competing and playing together. We all definitely want to make it to the big leagues and compete for a starting spot, but I don’t think that hinders our relationship with each other.”</p>
<p>The organization is also hoping that internal competition pushes each player to their peak. Everything seemed to click for the young Jays in Thursday night’s comeback win, as both players were called on to pinch-hit; Smith doubled and Davis was hit on the 10<sup>th</sup> pitch of his at-bat in the team’s furious ninth-inning rally. It’s too early to say definitively what next year might hold for Davis and Smith, but they’ll both go about their business and try to make the most of limited chances in the meantime.</p>
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		<title>For Dwight Smith Jr. it&#8217;s All in the Preparation</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/27/dwight-smith-jr-its-all-in-the-preparation/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/27/dwight-smith-jr-its-all-in-the-preparation/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jul 2018 10:27:38 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sean Addis]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dwight Smith Jr]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16392</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Video Produced and Edited by Sean Addis As the trade deadline approaches, anyone who follows the Toronto Blue Jays expects that a few familiar veterans will be gone by the end of the month. A season that started with the hope of meaningful baseball has shifted focus to the future. Fans are looking forward to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/E0w9H5vbwEg" width="560" height="315" frameborder="0" ></iframe><br />
<em>Video Produced and Edited by Sean Addis</em></p>
<p>As the trade deadline approaches, anyone who follows the Toronto Blue Jays expects that a few familiar veterans will be gone by the end of the month. A season that started with the hope of meaningful baseball has shifted focus to the future. Fans are looking forward to seeing what will be the next core of Blue Jay players.</p>
<p>Ken Rosenthal recently reported that teams have inquired about veteran outfielder Curtis Granderson. Should he be dealt, his replacement may already be with the big club. That player is Dwight Smith Jr.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Phillies?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Phillies</a> talking to <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> about Granderson, sources tell The Athletic. PHI looking for left-handed bat off bench and occasional starter in OF. Demoted fourth outfielder Altherr to AAA last night. Granderson .230/.337/.417 in 274 plate appearances this season.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/1021401332597575680?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 23, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>While Smith Jr. is not ranked as one of the Blue Jays top prospects, he has caught the attention of the Blue Jays manager. “Smitty has always done a good job for us in limited playing time,” said John Gibbons. “When I see him he always plays well.” His stats in the majors back up Gibbons&#8217; assessment. Over 32 games spanning two years, Smith Jr. has a slash line of .314/.400/.500.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">My shot of Dwight Smith Jr. making an impression …<a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> <a href="https://t.co/R8vmC1D2Wd">pic.twitter.com/R8vmC1D2Wd</a></p>
<p>&mdash; John Lott (@LottOnBaseball) <a href="https://twitter.com/LottOnBaseball/status/876160626040635393?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 17, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Drafted by the Blue Jays in the first round of 2011 as the 53<sup>rd </sup>overall pick, Smith Jr. comes from baseball blood lines. His father, Dwight Smith Sr., played eight years in the Major Leagues. Over the younger Dwight Smith&#8217;s minor league career, evaluators have noted his knowledge of the strike zone and patient approach at the plate. Over the past two years, he has seen an average of 3.9 pitches per at bat, and this year a high in walk/strikeout ratio at 0.92.</p>
<p>When discussing Smith Jr., Blue Jays hitting coach Brook Jacoby made sure to emphasize that his success goes beyond his limited time in the majors.</p>
<p>“He’s had good success in the minor leagues too.  Success to him isn’t anything new.  He has done a good job for us the times we have used him here over the last two years.  He has swung the bat well,” said Jacoby. “He has got a big leg kick, he gets it up early, that is the biggest thing. He is early with it and gets it back down early.”</p>
<p>Smith Jr. introduced that leg kick into his swing at the age of 11. Why? It was the only thing he could do to help him stay back on his leg.  Today it allows him to not only stay back longer, but to generate increased bat speed, making him a tougher out as a result.</p>
<p>The humble 25-year-old Georgia native says he has kept the same approach at the plate at every level of professional ball.  “I try not to do too much, trying to not get too big in my swing,” said Smith Jr. &#8220;It has been working, laying off the tough pitches being patient.” It is this approach that has helped him avoid a trap many young players fall into: being too pull-conscious. It has also seen his OBP increase to above .350 over the last two seasons.</p>
<p>“I think with time kids are less anxious, they start to slow the game down a little bit,” said Jacoby referring to Smith Jr’s plate patience (13.8 percent walk rate). “And hopefully that is a trend that will continue.”</p>
<p>Defensively, Smith Jr. can play all outfield positions with above average speed, but is not blessed with a strong arm. Offensively, he has a knack for hitting, though he doesn&#8217;t hit for much power. Some scouts have suggested him as a fourth outfielder at the major league level, but he does enough little things right, both on and off the diamond, that he may exceed expectations.</p>
<p>Prior to every game, Smith can be seen in the outfield participating in pregame drills and his own warm-up regimen with the same intensity whether he is in the starting lineup or not.“I do all my reps like I am starting,” shared Smith Jr. after his pregame preparation. “So whether I am playing, coming off the bench, pinch hitting, pinch running or defence, I work on everything like I am starting. So when I am called upon I am ready.”</p>
<iframe src="https://www.youtube.com/embed/TMaW0bnTC7c" width="500" height="281" frameborder="0" ></iframe>
<p>Young players who are accustomed to playing every day often get less playing time when they first arrive in the majors, and it can result in struggles at the plate. These struggles can be more pronounced in players that use a high leg kick. Players like Josh Donaldson and Jose Bautista, whose swings feature high leg kicks, always stress the importance of their timing when planting their feet for their swing to be successful. And the key to get the timing right is to face live pitching regularly.</p>
<p>Jacoby understands how Smith Jr.&#8217;s infrequent playing time can pose challenges for the young player. For Jacoby, the key for success is all in the preparation and simulating game like conditions.</p>
<p>“It is not easy especially being a young kid with a big leg kick that doesn’t play every day that is tough.  He has got to work off some velocity, even in the cages” said Jacoby. “Many times with leg kick guys you try to tone them down, but he has been able to get them up and down early so we haven’t messed with that at all.”</p>
<p>Manager Gibbons believes it is important to play everybody as much as you can. He acknowledges that certain guys, such as Teoscar Hernandez and Randal Grichuk, will play regularly, but he looks to find a balance to get players like Smith Jr. playing time.</p>
<p>“You don’t want them to sit too long. If you don’t play them the next thing you need them for a stretch and they have no timing,” Gibbons said. “I think that is important. They are young guys trying to make it and they are anxious as it is. So when they are here you give them playing time.  That is how guys get opportunities and make it in the big leagues you give them playing time.”</p>
<p>When the trade deadline dust settles, young players will be given the opportunity to audition to be part of the new core. As he has shown already, when that playing time is available, Dwight Smith Jr. will be ready for the call.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo </em>© <em>Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Dwight Smith Jr. Has a Place on the Blue Jays in 2019</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/22/dwight-smith-jr-has-a-place-on-the-blue-jays-in-2019/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jun 2018 10:32:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Brendan Panikkar]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dwight Smith Jr]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16142</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays outfield situation is going to look a heck of a lot better in 2019 compared to what it is right now. That&#8217;s not to say the current outfield is bad. But there are going to be some outfield spots opening up for 2019, and maybe even a trade or two this offseason. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays outfield situation is going to look a heck of a lot better in 2019 compared to what it is right now. That&#8217;s not to say the current outfield is bad. But there are going to be some outfield spots opening up for 2019, and maybe even a trade or two this offseason.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays currently have the following outfielders on their 40-man roster:</p>
<ul>
<li>Anthony Alford</li>
<li>Curtis Granderson</li>
<li>Randal Grichuk</li>
<li>Teoscar Hernandez</li>
<li>Steve Pearce</li>
<li>Kevin Pillar</li>
<li>Dalton Pompey</li>
<li>Dwight Smith Jr.</li>
</ul>
<p>We&#8217;ve seen all eight of these outfielders for at least some duration during the 2018 season. Beyond this year, you can all but guarantee Granderson and Pearce are gone: The platoon got off to a great start, but it all kind of fell apart when Pearce injured his oblique. Dalton Pompey may remain in the organization for depth purposes, but his future with the Blue Jays is very much in doubt, especially following his most recent stint with the big club and eventual injury. Unfortunately for the Mississauga native, it&#8217;s unlikely he&#8217;ll factor into the Blue Jays&#8217; plans for much longer.</p>
<p>That leaves Alford, Grichuk, Hernandez, Pillar, and Smith Jr. as the Jays&#8217; outfielders heading into the offseason, barring any trades this deadline. If anyone is moved this deadline or offseason, it would likely be Pillar. Grichuk&#8217;s recent string of post-disabled list success has made Blue Jays fans realize that he is actually a good and useful outfielder. In an ideal world, Hernandez will get at-bats at designated hitter a few times a week given his poor defense, with some time spent in the outfield. Anthony Alford is the most blue-chip and exciting out of all the names listed above, and he will certainly get his shot. Given that Pillar will be arbitration eligible and will likely command a raise, one would hope the Blue Jays consider trading him this 0ff-season to open up a full-time spot for Alford.</p>
<p>But while there are many scenarios that may play out with the Jays&#8217; outfield situation over the remainder of 2018 and through the offseason, one thing is certain in my mind: Dwight Smith Jr. has shown enough in his very brief MLB career to have a spot on the 2019 Blue Jays roster, even if it&#8217;s in the role of the fourth outfielder.</p>
<p>Smith Jr. is a left-handed bat, something only Granderson and switch-hitter Pompey offer in the current crop of outfielders. He&#8217;s hit at every level the Blue Jays have placed him at, and since 2013 has never posted a wRC+ of less than 108. In 164 plate appearances with the Buffalo Bisons, Smith Jr. has a walk rate of 14.6 percent and a strikeout rate of only 15.2 percent. He has almost walked as much as he&#8217;s struck out in 2018, and that good eye has translated decently well to the major leagues with 8.8 percent walk rate in 34 MLB plate appearances.</p>
<p>There isn&#8217;t a whole lot of major league data to go off of for Smith Jr., as he&#8217;s only amassed 63 plate appearances, but the small sample size returns are great, with a line of .333/.397/.533. In 42 batted balls for his MLB career, Smith Jr. has a hard hit percentage of 25.6 percent. With Smith Jr.&#8217;s ability to see pitches quite well, not strike out a lot, and put the ball in play, he should at minimum make a good fourth outfielder in 2019.</p>
<p>Smith Jr. offers the Blue Jays versatility, too, as he could play all over the outfield, hits left-handed, and can run very well. None of the other outfield options heading into 2019 would be able to offer that combination. The one thing to be worried about in the small sample size is the completely unsustainable .429 BABIP. Still, given Smith Jr.&#8217;s performance in his brief time in the majors, and all the minor league data we have available to us, he should definitely figure into the Jays&#8217; outfield plans for 2019. Whether as a fourth outfielder or in a regular role, Dwight Smith Jr. can be a useful player for the Blue Jays moving forward into next season and beyond.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Non-Roster Invites in Blue Jays Camp: The Prospects</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/12/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-prospects/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Mar 2016 13:49:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andy Burns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Girodo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Connor Greene]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Jensen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derrick Chung]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dwight Smith Jr]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jio Mier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matthew Dean]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=77</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every year at spring training, there there are a numbers of non-roster invitees (NRIs) that may seem surprising; some are there more as instructors and mentors while others are projects returning from injuries or just looking for another shot at the big leagues. This year the Blue Jays have 29 players in camp who aren’t on [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Every year at spring training, there there are a numbers of non-roster invitees (NRIs) that may seem surprising; some are there more as instructors and mentors while others are projects returning from injuries or just looking for another shot at the big leagues. This year the Blue Jays have 29 players in camp who aren’t on the 40 man roster &#8211; twelve pitchers and seventeen position players. Fourteen (eight pitchers, six hitters) of these players have some major league experience while the remaining eighteen players comprising of minor league fodder mixed in with legitimate prospects.</em></p>
<p><em>BP Toronto will be breaking down these NRIs into three groups &#8211; <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-pitchers/">veteran pitchers</a>, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=57" target="_blank">veteran hitters</a>, and prospects &#8211; and assessing their odds of making the opening day roster.</em></p>
<p><strong>Derrick Chung – Catcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .238/.288/.323 – 2 HR, 0 SB, 16 BB, 41 K &#8211; .222 TAv, -0.8 WARP</p>
<p>As a 28-year-old who&#8217;s only played 71 games above Single A, it&#8217;s fairly safe to assume that Derrick Chung isn&#8217;t much of a prospect. While Chung has shown an excellent batting eye, his two career home runs, and sub .350 slugging percentage leaves much to be desired. Despite his struggles at the plate, Chung comes with a strong defensive reputation for both working with pitchers, and throwing out would be base stealers. This isn&#8217;t the profile of a player destined for a major league career. However, those skills usually lead to a long minor league career followed by a career in coaching.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Chung is a valuable piece for a major league club, even though he&#8217;s incredibly unlikely to don a Blue Jays uniform. His value will come via working with young pitchers as they attempt to make the critical developmental jump to AA.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p><strong>*Danny Jansen – Catcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .211/.273/.335 – 6 HR, 0 SB, 19 BB, 53 K &#8211; .221 TAv, -0.2 WARP</p>
<p>Like Chung, Jansen is a player whose primary skill is his discipline at the plate. However, unlike Chung, he has shown at least some power (5 HRs last season). More importantly, Jansen is only 20 years old. With that said, catching prospects are always the most difficult to get a handle on until they reach the upper levels&#8230;so it&#8217;s tough to predict how he will progress.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> With A.J. Jimenez having lost all of his prospect sheen, and with Max Pentecost&#8217;s status behind the plate in question, Jansen in the Jays top catching prospect. We&#8217;re at least two years away from Jansen even sniffing the big league roster, but he&#8217;s an interesting player to keep track of.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>Low A Lansing</p>
<p>While there was some promise to Jansen&#8217;s season in Lansing last year, I&#8217;d think that his .206 BA wouldn&#8217;t cut it for a promotion. He&#8217;ll probably reach High A Dunedin at some point this season, but it won&#8217;t be at the beginning.</p>
<p><strong>*Rowdy Tellez – First Baseman</strong></p>
<p><em>PECOTA Projection: </em>250 PA &#8211; .229/.279/.388 – 8 HR, 0 SB, 17 BB, 65 K &#8211; .229 TAv, -0.3 WARP</p>
<p>When Rowdy Tellez was drafted in the 30th round of the 2013 draft, he was largely seen as unsignable. That all changed when the Jays failed to sign their first round pick, Phil Bickford, and instead devoted all their excess bonus pool money to signing the power hitting first baseman. In 2015, he rocketed through the Midwest League. As well, despite battling a wrist injury, his second half promotion to the Florida State League was a massive success. With enough plate appearances, he would&#8217;ve finished second in the league in slugging percentage.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Tellez is the Blue Jays&#8217; top power prospect. With both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista being free agents at the end of the 2016 season, the club may be in need for a power bat by this time next year. With that said, it&#8217;s doubtful that Tellez will be ready that soon. It&#8217;s also still unclear if he has the ability to hit, and hit for power, at the major league level. Nevertheless, he&#8217;s one of the most intriguing prospects to track this upcoming season.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment:</em> High A Dunedin.</p>
<p>While Tellez was very successful in Dunedin last year, he only played in 35 games at that level. As a result, you&#8217;d expect the Jays to let him prove himself there over a larger sample size. However, there is a chance that they get aggressive and push Tellez up to the Fisher Cats to begin the year.</p>
<p><strong>*Matthew Dean – First Baseman</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA – .217/.257/.358 &#8211; 7 HR, 0 SB, 11 BB, 79 K &#8211; .219 TAv, -0.9 WARP</p>
<p>As a non-elite prospect who is restricted to first base, Dean is one of my least favourite type of prospects. Throughout his four year minor league career he has achieved just enough to get promoted further up the ladder, but not enough to really stand out. With that said, Dean did lead the notoriously pitcher friendly Florida State League in home runs. That&#8217;s more than enough to earn him another year of faith on the potential that he could develop into a second division starter at first base.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Dean is at least a full year away from being major league ready (if he&#8217;ll ever be). Strangely, his ability to hit both right and left handed pitchers almost equally is one of the biggest drawbacks to his big league future. If he had similar production, but did most of his damage against left handed pitching, you could see him as a platoon bench bat.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Matthew Dean will likely start the season as the Fisher Cats&#8217; staring first baseman. However, he could potentially be moved to designated hitter when Rowdy Tellez gets the call to AA.</p>
<p><strong>Andy Burns – Infielder</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .248/.297/.395 – 6 HR, 4 SB, 16 BB, 51 K &#8211; .247 TAv, 0.5 WARP</p>
<p>Burns was drafted as a shortstop in 2011, but he was quickly shifted off the position. Over the past two seasons, he has shifted into a super utility role, having played every position on the diamond except for catcher and centre field. He’s unlikely to ever be an impact defender at any of those positions, but that added flexibility gives him an increased chance to make the big leagues. As does his ability to consistently hit left handed pitching. In every season that he has played as a professional, Burns has posted an OPS of .800+ against southpaws. That has all the makings of a quality bench player.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> Burns is a low upside prospect, but one who could still provide value to the big league club as a utility bench bat at some point in the near future. Given his success hitting versus left handed pitching it’s even possible that he could emerge as a platoon starter.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AAA Buffalo</p>
<p>Even with Devon Travis starting the season on the disabled list, Burns is still behind both Goins and Barney on the second base depth chart. He&#8217;s also behind Donaldson and Dominguez on the third base depth chart. As a result, he&#8217;ll likely spend most of the season in AAA.</p>
<p><strong>Jio Mier – Shortstop</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .209/.278/.309 – 4 HR, 3 SB, 22 BB, 61 K &#8211; .215 TAv, -0.6 WARP</p>
<p>Mier was acquired via minor league free agency this offseason. At lot of his sheen comes from the fact that he was drafted 21st overall in 2009. Despite some initial success, Mier&#8217;s career largely stalled after arriving in AA in 2013. At that point, his contact rate completely collapsed, and scouts were starting to question whether he could stick at shortstop.  Strangely, despite never hitting, the Astros yo-yo’d Mier back and forth between AAA and AA before losing him to minor league free agency past offseason.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>With Munenori Kawasaki and Jonathan Diaz leaving the organization over the offseason, Mier has replaced them on the depth chart in the middle infield. He’ll provide stability for the Bisons, and be emergency depth in case of middle infield injuries.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AAA</p>
<p>Mier will begin the year manning shortstop for the Bisons, and with Devon Travis already on the shelf, he’s probably only a single injury away from heading to Toronto.</p>
<p><strong>*Anthony Alford – Center Fielder</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .223/.304/.345 – 5 HR, 7 SB, 25 BB, 72 K &#8211; .235 TAv, -0.1 WARP</p>
<p>At this point, I think most Blue Jays fans are familiar with Alford’s story. The former football star, who put his baseball career on hold until the end of the 2014 season. In the first full season that he devoted to baseball, Alford had a bigger breakout than any prospect in the game. The most surprising aspect of Alford’s breakout was the true baseball skills he showed. It was expected that Alford had the tools to succeed, but seeing his discipline at the plate, and his efficiency in stealing bases has given me even more faith that he will develop into the star he seems destined to become.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Alford fits as the top prospect in the Blue Jays newly depleted minor league system. If things go especially well this upcoming year, it’s possible that we could see Alford for a cameo in September. However, it’s more likely that the Jays hold him down to preserve his service time.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Considering Alford played 57 games in Dunedin last season, it’s conceivable that the Blue Jays send him back to there to start the season. With that said, he also laid waste to the Florida State League in his cameo appearance there. As a result, I expect the Jays push him up to New Hampshire.</p>
<p><strong>*Dwight Smith Jr. – Outfielder</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .236/.297/.364 – 5 HR, 2 SB, 20 BB, 51 K &#8211; .238 TAv, -0.3 WARP</p>
<p>Dwight Smith Jr. is a very difficult prospect to get a handle on. He lacks any significant upside, as a likely fourth outfielder. This is largely due to the fact that he lacks a carrying tool. However, while Smith lacks the carrying tool, he also doesn’t have a real weakness either. He isn’t my favourite type of prospect, but he is one who could provide some value to the big league team.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>With Michael Saunders currently slotted in as the starting left fielder, and a collection of veteran fliers in the mix for the fourth outfield spot, I think it&#8217;s incredibly unlikely that Smith gets an opportunity at the major league level this season.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Given the struggles that Smith showed in the sound half while battling injuries, it&#8217;s difficult to justify promoting him up the ladder to AAA. As a result I’m expecting he&#8217;ll restart the season down in New Hampshire. Hopefully he can prove he’s ready for the next challenge and his stay there won’t be long.</p>
<p><strong>*Conner Greene – Starting Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 88.5 IP – 4.75 ERA, 5.04 DRA, 5.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9</p>
<p>Connor Greene rocketed through the Jays system in 2015, going from Lansing all the way to New Hampshire. In doing so, he emerged as a very legitimate prospect. While the Blue Jays consistently had a highly rated farm system in the Anthopoulos era, it was rarely on the backs of low round draft picks. As a result, seeing someone like Greene emerge from that quagmire is a true credit to the team’s developmental staff.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>After the Blue Jays traded away 11 pitching prospects at last year’s trade deadline, Greene remains the top pitching prospect left in the Jays system. While it’s unlikely that we&#8217;ll see Greene pitch for the Jays this season, he’s a key name to keep in mind if they need to upgrade the major league squad at the deadline.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Greene will start the 2016 season where he left off 2015 in Double A New Hampshire. I expect that he&#8217;ll stay there for the majority of the season, especially with the Jays increased pitching depth<strong> </strong>decreasing their need for spot starters in 2016.</p>
<p><strong>Chad Girodo – Relief Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 50.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 4.42 DRA, 6.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9</p>
<p>The Jays selected Girodo in the 9<span style="font-size: small"><span style="line-height: 20px">th</span></span> round of the 2013 draft. He was primarily selected because, as a senior, he&#8217;d sign for just $10,000, and then the Jays could save money to spend on the rest of their draft picks. However, despite the low expectations, Girodo has climbed the ladder and emerged as a quality relief prospect (even though that is somewhat of an oxymoron).</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>The Jays have an abundance of contenders for the final bullpen slot coming out of camp. Girodo is clearly behind most of the veteran contenders in camp, but if he goes back to Buffalo and posts similar numbers to what he did last year it&#8217;s possible we could see him later in the year.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AAA Buffalo</p>
<p>Girodo got a cup of coffee in Triple A to close out 2015, so he will start the season back there for 2016.</p>
<p><em>*denotes player has already been reassigned to minor league camp</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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