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	<title>Toronto &#187; Detroit Tigers</title>
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		<title>Three Things to Watch for Against the Tigers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/08/three-things-to-watch-for-against-the-tigers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Sep 2017 16:29:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Detroit Tigers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Hicks]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13348</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Andrew Munn, Greg Wisniewski, and Elie Waitzer More Than A Little Hicks-up? This weekend’s series between the Tigers and Blue Jays will have little to zero (probably zero) effect on how things shake out in the 2017 playoff race. This will allow for many players who don’t get regular playing time to get [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Andrew Munn, Greg Wisniewski, and Elie Waitzer</em></p>
<h3>More Than A Little Hicks-up?</h3>
<p>This weekend’s series between the Tigers and Blue Jays will have little to zero (probably zero) effect on how things shake out in the 2017 playoff race. This will allow for many players who don’t get regular playing time to get some reps in before the season ends. For the Tigers, this languishing period has been occurring since well before September, as their playoff odds have sat below 10% since mid-June. Things have really taken a turn in the past couple months, as Detroit has traded the likes of Alex Avila, J.D. Martinez, Justin Upton, and Justin Verlander to bring about opportunities for some fresh faces.</p>
<p>One player who’s taken advantage of his opportunity is John Hicks. The catcher/first baseman hybrid has been hitting rather impressively during his 2017 campaign, with his numbers standing at .313/.372/.537 over 148 plate appearances this season. This production wasn’t exactly expected from Hicks, who had hit .269/.281/.428 in 218 AAA appearances this season. Nonetheless, Hicks ranks third in tAV among Tigers with at least 50 plate appearances at .291 and first among players who have not been traded away.</p>
<p>In all likelihood, this outburst from Hicks will not propel him far into the Tigers’ plans for the future. Nothing in his minor-league numbers has suggested that he could hit like <em>this</em> and he <em>is</em> currently sporting a .391 BABIP. This number is peculiarly high for a 6-2, 230 lb catcher, even one with a career minor league BABIP of .332. He has also never shown power like this before, as his ISO has never hit the .224 mark in the minors that he is currently at right now, and is currently hitting home runs on a whopping 21.4% of his fly balls.</p>
<p>Having said this, Hicks’ sparkling 2017 campaign should still be one to be celebrated. A fourth-round pick by the Mariners in 2008, Hicks has taken his first real opportunity with the Tigers and ran with it this year, potentially causing them to rethink their plans for next season’s Opening Day catcher. If nothing more comes of it past this season, two months of productive MLB play is still an incredible achievement. And if more does come of it, this certainly wouldn’t be the first time a prospect rose from relative anonymity to major leaguer.</p>
<h3>A Lesson About Pitchers</h3>
<p>A lot of times, people like to throw up two stat lines and discuss Player A and Player B, without naming names. At the end of their explanation it is always revealed that Player A was some guy you liked and should have recognized, and Player B was a hamster in a fat suit and funny glasses, and clearly the superior option. I don&#8217;t do that very often, but I&#8217;m going to ask you to indulge me in that little cliché now.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/09/stroman-all.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13352" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/09/stroman-all.jpg" alt="stroman all" width="820" height="75" /></a></p>
<p>There we are. Two stat lines for your consider. The first thing I would like you to notice is how many similarities there are. Opponent&#8217;s TAv, and his H/9, K/9, GB %, even FIP and DRA are not that far off. One pitcher has only made 28 starts, but that might not be his fault, depending on injuries and rotation slot. The difference that jumps right out is ERA. Pitcher B is a full run and a third better than pitcher A. That is often the difference between a win and a loss for the team on any given day.</p>
<p>So which pitcher would you choose to make a start against the Tigers this weekend? If you said pitcher B, congratulations, you&#8217;ve chosen the Toronto staff workhorse Marcus Stroman. If you said Pitcher A, congratulations, you have also chosen the Toronto staff workhorse Marcus Stroman! I told you that there&#8217;s always a twist at the end of these things.</p>
<p>Pitcher A is Stroman in 2016, and Pitcher B is Stroman in 2017. The point here is an illustration of an old Sabermetric problem. ERA tells you how well a particular season went for a pitcher, but it tells you very little about <em>how things might go for him if he continues to do the same things the next season</em>. Perhaps you already knew a bit about that, or perhaps you&#8217;ve been curious about FIP and DRA and why they might be valuable to you as a baseball fan. Stroman&#8217;s FIP and DRA both moved by only a third of a run between the two years (oddly, in the opposite directions), and they are a much better indicator of the results Marcus might get if he keeps &#8216;being himself&#8217; next year.</p>
<p>So, on Friday night, enjoy 2017 Marcus Stroman, who is every bit the pitcher 2016 Marcus Stroman was, with a little bit more luck going his way.</p>
<h3>He Mahtook Us All By Surprise</h3>
<p>Any guess as to who currently leads the Tigers with a .276 batting average (minimum 250 PA)? Hint: He spent the first two years of his career in Tampa Bay before coming to Detroit. Still nothing? Does the name Mikie Mahtook ring any bells?</p>
<p>If it did, you probably only know him from <a href="https://www.si.com/mlb/2017/09/03/mikie-mahtook-tigers-home-run-blunder-video">this </a>infamous web gem.</p>
<p>To be fair, leading the gutted carcass of the Detroit Tigers in batting average isn&#8217;t high praise, but Mahtook&#8217;s relative success this season has come out of nowhere. The biggest difference for the 27-year-old outfielder has come in the strikeout department, where he&#8217;s posted a career-low 21% rate. Compared to his 37% rate last season, that&#8217;s one of the most drastic reductions of any player in the league &#8211; right next to breakout Cardinal Tommy Pham. Mahtook has also tapped into his power by pulling the ball more often, which has gotten him into double-digit homer totals for the first time in his career.</p>
<p>Throw in a handful of steals and solid fielding ratings and you&#8217;ve got a player that the Tigers are probably happy to start in center field throughout their rebuilding process.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo Credit: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Tigers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/14/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-tigers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 14 Jul 2017 19:31:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Detroit Tigers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miguel Cabrera]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12377</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Dylan Svoboda, Joshua Howsam, and Rachael McDaniel Lumbering Tigers The Blue Jays won&#8217;t have to worry about the Detroit Tigers while the latter are on the bases this week. The Tigers have been the second-worst base running team at -8.2 base running runs according to Baseball Prospectus. They have also stolen just twenty-nine bases [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Dylan Svoboda, Joshua Howsam, and Rachael McDaniel</em></p>
<h4>Lumbering Tigers</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays won&#8217;t have to worry about the Detroit Tigers while the latter are on the bases this week. The Tigers have been the second-worst base running team at -8.2 base running runs according to Baseball Prospectus. They have also stolen just twenty-nine bases as a team so far this year, tied for fourth-least in baseball. That means the Jays&#8217; backstop due of Russell Martin and Miguel Montero, who have both been well below average at throwing out base runners this year, should not have to worry much about basestealers. Not only are the Tigers the worst team in terms of stolen base runs (SBR), they are well below-average in groundball advancement runs (GAR), air advancement runs (AAR), and hit advancement runs (HAR).</p>
<p>The Tigers have the second and third worst baserunners in the league according to BRR, Miguel Cabrera and Victor Martinez. The team is saved from being a historically bad base running team by Ian Kinsler and Jose Iglesias, who rank eighth and thirtieth in BRR respectively. They don&#8217;t have another player with over 0.6 BRR and have nine different individuals who have been worth negative BRR.</p>
<p>Unsurprisingly, the Tigers have been one of the slowest teams in baseball. They have just three regulars who are above average for their position in Statcast&#8217;s Sprint Speed metric, Iglesias, Nick Castellanos, and Justin Upton. On the flip side, Victor Martinez has been one of the slowest runners in the league. He is tied with Jett Bandy for the fourth-slowest sprint speed. Cabrera isn&#8217;t exactly fleet afoot either, as he is tied for twenty-ninth slowest in the league and thirteenth-slowest when not including catchers. The Blue Jays will be able to worry a little less when allowing base runners this week.</p>
<h4>No Help for Struggling Arms</h4>
<p>The Blue Jays will send three struggling pitchers to the mound in this series against the Tigers, Aaron Sanchez (still rounding back into form following his finger injury), Francisco Liriano, and Marco Estrada. Those three enter the weekend with ERAs of 4.85, 5.56, and 5.17, respectively. The underlying metrics aren&#8217;t so kind either, as each man has a DRA over over 5.30 (including a horrendous 7.40 for Estrada).</p>
<p>The reason the Jays set their rotation up this was was so that Happ and Stroman (along with Sanchez) would face off against Boston in the next series, while also hoping to take advantage of a struggling Tigers&#8217; lineup. <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&amp;stats=bat&amp;lg=all&amp;qual=0&amp;type=8&amp;season=2017&amp;month=3&amp;season1=2017&amp;ind=0&amp;team=0,ts&amp;rost=0&amp;age=0&amp;filter=&amp;players=0&amp;sort=15,d" target="_blank">Over the last 30 days</a>, the Tigers as a team are hitting just .257/.314/.408, which is &#8220;bested&#8221; only by the Angels putrid batting line of .241/.296/.375 over the same time period.</p>
<p>Unfortunately for the Jays, the Tigers as a whole hit much better at home (.275/.346/.469) vs on the road (.234/.309/.381), despite the cavernous nature of Comerica Park. Liriano in particular could have a tough time, as the Tigers&#8217; .790 OPS against lefties is fourth best in the American League and seventh best in baseball.</p>
<p>One player who <em>hasn&#8217;t</em> been doing too much damage for Detroit this season is perennial All-Star and future inner-circle Hall of Famer, Miguel Cabrera. While a .264/.357/.440 batting line is nothing to sneeze at, it is a far cry from the .324/.406/.574 line he has averaged over the previous five years. Once again though, this is not as good a sign as it may appear for Toronto.</p>
<p><a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/241971558/machado-miggy-poised-for-second-half-rebounds/" target="_blank">As Mike Petriello of MLB.com points out</a>, Cabrera has run into some extremely poor luck in the first half of the season and all signs point to his numbers reverting to their normal, terrifying form. He <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2017%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=xwoba&amp;player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_abs=100#results" target="_blank">ranks eighth in xwOBA</a> (expected wOBA based on batted ball info) and <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2017%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=batter&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfRO=&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=wobadiff&amp;player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_abs=100#results" target="_blank">is number one in xwOBA &#8211; wOBA</a>. He&#8217;s also second in all of baseball behind Aaron Judge in hard-hit rate, so the Jays will still have to be very careful with the slugging first baseman. If they aren&#8217;t, those sky high ERA/DRA numbers could get even higher.</p>
<h4>The Jays&#8217; and the Tigers&#8217; Opposing Areas of Underperformance</h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In many ways, the Detroit Tigers’ season has been quite similar to that of the Blue Jays. Both are old, slow teams, relying mostly on sheer power to fuel their offense; both have been contenders in recent years; both teams have seen poor performance from key players and a certain amount of bad luck diminish their playoff hopes. The Jays enter this series six games under .500, and the Tigers enter it nine games under. The Jays are eight and a half games back of the division lead, and the Tigers are nine games back. The Jays are coming off back-to-back ALCS appearances, and this is the first time the Tigers have been under .500 at the All-Star break in over a decade. </span></p>
<p>The areas in which these teams have underperformed, however, have been essentially the reverse of each other. The Blue Jays, as we all unfortunately know, have had one of the weakest and worst offenses in baseball by almost any metric. The Tigers offense, though coming in at a pedestrian 15th in baseball with respect to runs scored and team OPS, tore the cover off the ball in the first half. The team posted the highest line drive percentage in baseball, with 22.8 percent of their batted balls going as line drives. A whopping 41.7 percent of their batted balls were hard-hit, 9.3 percent more than the second-ranked team in this category. So while the Tigers offense hasn’t been noticeably valuable &#8211; their offensive performance is hampered, much like the Jays&#8217;, by poor baserunning &#8211; the line-drive and hard-hit numbers suggest that they have still been making contact with the ball like a dangerous offense, and have perhaps been a bit unlucky.</p>
<p>On the pitching side of things, the Jays bullpen has been one of the few pleasant surprises of this season. Per Fangraphs, the Jays bullpen has been the fourth most valuable in baseball and eighth in baseball by WPA. The Tigers bullpen, meanwhile, has been the team’s worst area of performance. Fangraphs has them as the second-least valuable bullpen in baseball, failing even to reach replacement level. The home run ball in particular has burned the Tigers, with their 1.52 home runs per nine innings again being the second worst in baseball. And the Tigers bullpen has given up even more hard contact than its offense has generated &#8211; 42 percent of batted balls against the Tigers bullpen are hit hard.</p>
<p>It will be interesting to see how these opposite areas of weakness play out in this series, with both teams needing a series win to give them a bit of hope against hope as they approach the trade deadline.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 6, Tigers 1; Dickey and Donaldson Dominate Detroit</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/10/recap-blue-jays-6-tigers-1-dickey-and-donaldson-dominate-detroit/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Jul 2016 20:13:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Molly Tissenbaum]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Detroit Tigers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4529</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[R.A. Dickey took the hill this afternoon looking to help the Jays bounce back after their seven game win streak was snapped yesterday afternoon. Following a celebration of the greatest moments in the first 40 years of Blue Jays Baseball, the Jays went to work on finishing off the first half on a winning note. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>R.A. Dickey took the hill this afternoon looking to help the Jays bounce back after their seven game win streak was snapped yesterday afternoon. Following a celebration of the greatest moments in the first 40 years of Blue Jays Baseball, the Jays went to work on finishing off the first half on a winning note. Dickey got Kinsler to ground out to first base on the very first pitch of the game, and Dickey continued to work efficiently throughout the afternoon. Josh Thole got the offense going in the bottom of the second inning with a two out, two-run single. Kevin Pillar was three for five, and Troy Tulowitzki had two more hits in this afternoon&#8217;s contest. Josh Donaldson hammered a three-run homerun in the fourth inning, to extend the Jays lead to 5-0 at the time. Dickey threw seven strong innings, and gave up just one run on five hits. All nine starters had hits in the ball game this afternoon.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With just his second and third RBIs of the year, Josh Thole was the hero this afternoon; he knocked a two out single into right field which scored Troy Tulowitzki and Kevin Pillar and gave the Jays a 2-0 lead in the second inning (.176).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With the bases loaded in the bottom of the second inning, Darwin Barney was unable to break the game open when he struck out, lowering the Blue Jays&#8217; chances of winning by 7.7 percentage points.</p>
<h3>Donaldson Makes History</h3>
<p>In his second at-bat of the afternoon, Josh Donaldson came to the plate with two outs and two runners on base. With an 0-1 count, he smashed a homerun to center field, and became just the sixth player in the history of the game to have 80 runs scored and 20+ homeruns before the All Star break. Lou Gehrig did it in 1936, and had 92 runs scored and 20 homeruns. Ted Williams accomplished the feat 10 years later, in 1946. Reggie Jackson had 37 homeruns and scored 84 runs at the All Star break. Frank Thomas, in the first of his back to back MVP seasons, scored 93 runs and had 32 homeruns before the break. Alex Rodriguez did it in 2000, with 84 runs scored and 24 homeruns. This short list now includes Josh Donaldson, who after today&#8217;s game had scored 80 runs and hit 23 homeruns.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki might not be thrilled with the timing of the All Star Game and the resulting four days off this week. In his last 15 games, Tulowitzki has been red hot at the plate, hitting .305, with a .364 OBP, and slugging .576. He&#8217;s got 17 RBI and five home runs in that time as well.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays will break for the All Star game after a great home stand, where they went 8-3. Josh Donaldson, Edwin Encarnacion, Marco Estrada, Aaron Sanchez, and Michael Saunders will travel to San Diego to represent the Blue Jays in the midsummer classic. Following the All Star Game, the Jays will head to Oakland to take on the A&#8217;s in a three game series.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Tigers 3, Blue Jays 2; Sanchez Struggles, Streak Stopped at Seven</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/09/recap-tigers-3-blue-jays-2-sanchez-struggles-streak-stopped-at-seven/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 09 Jul 2016 20:15:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Matt Boyd]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Aaron Sanchez against Matt Boyd seemed like a slam dunk, but that&#8217;s why they play the games. The Blue Jays were looking to extend their winning streak to eight games but came up short against Detroit on Saturday afternoon. Sanchez was not at his best and the offense struggled to get much going against Matt [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Aaron Sanchez against Matt Boyd seemed like a slam dunk, but that&#8217;s why they play the games. The Blue Jays were looking to extend their winning streak to eight games but came up short against Detroit on Saturday afternoon. Sanchez was not at his best and the offense struggled to get much going against Matt Boyd, resulting in a narrow defeat at the hands of the Tigers.</p>
<p>Sanchez got off to a strong start by striking out the side in the 1st inning but ran into troubles in the 2nd. The Tigers loaded the bases with nobody out when Steven Moya lined to left fielder Ezequiel Carrera who launched a perfect strike to nab a tagging Victor Martinez at the plate. Sanchez looked like he would wriggle off the hook until he was robbed of a third strike on a beautiful curveball that umpire Mark Ripperger simply missed. Jarrod Saltalamacchia turned the extra pitch into a walk, allowing Austin Romine to pick up a RBI after being hit by an errant fastball. When all was said and done, Sanchez was at 48 pitches through two innings. The young starter WAS named to the all-star team after the game, so it wasn&#8217;t an entirely bad day for him.</p>
<p>Saltalamacchia would collect an RBI single in the 4th, notching the only other run Detroit could manage off Sanchez. While conceding two runs is hardly a bad day, Sanchez was done in by a high pitch count and lots of high leverage moments. He finished with a line of 5.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 2 BB and 4 K on 92 pitches.</p>
<p>It was looking like the Jays would get to Boyd in the early going but stranded two runners in scoring position to close the 1st. After the early threat, the Jays struggled to get much going against Detroit pitching. Trailing for most of the game, Ezequiel Carerra cut the deficit to one with an RBI triple in the bottom of the 5th but was stranded after Edwin Encarnacion popped out with runners on the corners. The Jays managed to knot the game at two in the 7th thanks to a home run off the bat of Devon Travis but couldn&#8217;t crack the rest of the Tigers bullpen.</p>
<p>Jason Grilli quickly surrendered the lead in the 8th, as Victor Martinez crushed a home run to right center field to give the Tigers their third and eventual game-winning run of the day.</p>
<p>Justin Wilson and Francisco Rodriguez preserved the lead and recorded the final six outs without much fanfare.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Unsurprisingly, Victor Martinez&#8217;s dinger off Jason Grilli in the 8th was today&#8217;s top play. The homer was good for a WPA of .273.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Today&#8217;s bottom play of the day came off the bat of Steven Moya who lined into a double play. It&#8217;s a bit unfair to pin the play on Moya, whose fly ball wasn&#8217;t deep enough to score a tagging Victor Martinez from third thanks to a fantastic throw from Ezequiel Carrera. The play resulted in a -.178 WPA.</p>
<h3>Baffled by Boyd</h3>
<p>Matt Boyd entered the day with a 1-8 career record and 7.17 ERA. Most Jays fans will remember his horrific outing against the Red Sox when he conceded seven runs while failing to record an out in his second career start. The rest of his big league starts haven&#8217;t gone too well and it looked like the Jays were set up nicely to hang some runs on the board today.</p>
<p>Boyd, fresh off a AAA stint where he posted a sub-3 ERA, looked like a changed man. Though he only went five innings, he surrendered just four hits and two walks while striking out six. It was a missed opportunity for a Toronto offense that came in hot.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays will look to take three of four from the Tigers and head into the All Star break on a positive note. The final game of the season&#8217;s first half comes at 1:07 PM ET tomorrow when R.A. Dickey (6-9, 4.10 ERA) takes on Anibal Sanchez (5-9, 6.52 ERA).</p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 7, Tigers 2; Donaldson Dominates Despondent Detroit</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/08/recap-blue-jays-tigers-june-8th-2016/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/08/recap-blue-jays-tigers-june-8th-2016/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Jun 2016 20:07:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Detroit Tigers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[r.a. dickey]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3492</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays previous two games have run the gamut on the emotional investment side of things. The opener against the Tigers was an 11-0 laugher, and the Blue Jays were out of it from basically the get go. The second game featured a dominant performance by Aaron Sanchez, but unfortunately the offense couldn&#8217;t score [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays previous two games have run the gamut on the emotional investment side of things. The opener against the Tigers was an 11-0 laugher, and the Blue Jays were out of it from basically the get go. The second game featured a dominant performance by Aaron Sanchez, but unfortunately the offense couldn&#8217;t score and the team lost 3-2 in 10 innings after leading for eight. In game three, the Blue Jays decided to avoid all those negative feelings.</p>
<p>Justin Smoak got things started with a home run. Josh Donaldson hit one as well. Josh also hit a triple, as did Kevin Pillar. R.A. Dickey was fine, allowing a lot of hard contact, but still limiting the damage to just two runs scored. It wasn&#8217;t the best game for him, but thankfully, he didn&#8217;t have to be perfect like Sanchez last night, because the offense decided to do their job.</p>
<p>John Gibbons went to the bullpen as soon as things got serious in the sixth inning, and it paid off. With a runner in scoring position and one out, Jesse Chavez came into the game and struck out two straight to end the inning. Chavez worked the seventh and continued to look good, but in the eighth came Drew Storen and his usual antics. Storen put runners on first and second with one out, but was able to escape without allowing a run. Aaron Loup and Gavin Floyd finished things off in the ninth inning to give the Blue Jays the victory.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>After the Blue Jays jumped to a 2-0 lead in the top of the first inning on the strength of a Justin Smoak home run, the Tigers found themselves with a hole to climb out of early. That wouldn&#8217;t be a problem, as with Mike Aviles at first base and two out, Nick Castellanos hit a home run on a 2-2 pitch to tie the game at two. This increased the Tigers&#8217; chance of winning by 19.1 percentage points, though that obviously was not enough in the end.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Eventually, batters will stop getting greedy on first base when R.A. Dickey is on the mound. It hasn&#8217;t happened yet though, and the biggest blow to the Tigers&#8217; chances of winning this game occurred when Jose Iglesias was picked off in the second inning. There were runners on first and third with one out when Iglesias was caught leaning and Dickey fired over to Justin Smoak at first to record the out. This play had a WPA of -.082, the lowest such value in the game.</p>
<h3>Donaldson Does His Thing</h3>
<p>Despite still having a good season, Josh Donaldson&#8217;s numbers have been down across the board compared to his 2015 MVP stats. Today, though, Donaldson was fantastic, going 3-4 and finishing just a double shy of the cycle. On a team where consistent offense has been hard to come by, Donaldson has been a pleasure to watch in 2016.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Many of the Blue Jays&#8217; offensive problems in 2016 can be traced back to their inability to hit with runners in scoring position. A lot of people will credit this to bad luck, as their hits have come at times when runners were not in scoring position, whereas others will say it is a skill to hit with runners close to coming home. Regardless, the Blue Jays were a lot better in this department today, going 4 for 10, after going 0-9 in Tuesday&#8217;s game.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Blue Jays will try to make it two victories in a row tomorrow night against the Baltimore Orioles at Rogers Centre. Marcus Stroman (5-2, 4.82) will be facing Tyler Wilson (2-5, 4.39) with a 7:07 PM eastern first pitch.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Tigers 11, Blue Jays 0; Jays Let Down Their Defensive Guard</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/06/recap-tigers-11-blue-jays-0-jays-let-down-their-defensive-guard/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/06/recap-tigers-11-blue-jays-0-jays-let-down-their-defensive-guard/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 07 Jun 2016 02:13:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Detroit Tigers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=3444</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m glad that game is over. There was nothing that the Blue Jays did well from start to finish. The pitching was abysmal. The offense was non-existent. The defense was uncharacteristically atrocious. Kevin Pillar made an ugly mistake in the field when Nick Castellanos hit a liner right at him. Instead of taking his first [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m glad that game is over. There was nothing that the Blue Jays did well from start to finish. The pitching was abysmal. The offense was non-existent. The defense was uncharacteristically atrocious. Kevin Pillar made an ugly mistake in the field when Nick Castellanos hit a liner right at him. Instead of taking his first step back, he made a move forward, which was ultimately his death sentence on the play. Castellanos resided on third base when all was said and done. Pillar wasn&#8217;t done there. Later in the game, he went down to pick up a ball rolling toward him and he let it go between the wickets. If Pillar is going to be making errors in the field, it might as well all be in one game and especially a game where everything went wrong.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the second inning, with one out, and two on, J.A. Happ threw a inside cut fastball to James McCann. He went down and ripped the cover off the baseball, launching a line-drive homer to left field. From there the game was essentially over. It was 4-0 by the end of the second inning and the Tigers didn&#8217;t look back. McCann improved his team&#8217;s odds to win the game by 0.173 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The worst play of the game occurred in the only inning the Jays were still in the ball game, the first. Bautista led the ballgame off with a walk, and Donaldson subsequently struck out with an ugly hack. Edwin Encarnacion came up to the dish and buried the ball into the ground resulting in an inning-ending double play and decreasing the Jays&#8217; chance of winning the game by -0.050 WPA.</p>
<h3>Darwin Barney Is The Lone Bright Spot</h3>
<p>In a game devoid of anything particularly interesting for Jays fans, Darwin Barney continued to impress with his bat. Barney was 2-3 and accounted for two of the three Jays hits on the evening. That is right, the number nine hitter accumulated the majority of the offense for the Jays on Monday evening. His average for the season is .337. I am fairly confident to say that he has been the biggest offensive surprise on the Jays thus far into the season.</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>Hopefully the entire Jays team has a short memory after this game. Forget about it and move on. These games will happen over the course of the season but one would have hoped that it wouldn&#8217;t have occurred directly after the Jays had won five series in a row and were playing their best baseball of the season. Of course, playing poorly for one game doesn&#8217;t mean the end of the Jays resurgence, but it doesn&#8217;t inspire much confidence.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays are back at it tomorrow at Comerica Park. The game will begin at 7:10 pm with Aaron Sanchez (5-1, 2.99 ERA) on the mound for the Blue Birds and former-Jay Matt Boyd (0-1, 3.94 ERA) pitching for the Tigers. If the Jays want to extend their streak to six straight series wins, they will need to close out the next two against Detroit in style, something they are definitely capable of doing.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Rick Osentoski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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