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	<title>Toronto &#187; Cleveland</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against Cleveland</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/21/3-things-to-watch-for-against-cleveland/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Jul 2017 16:51:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland Indians]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Corey Kluber]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Francisco Lindor]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12520</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika, Cole Nefsky, and Joshua Howsam Kendrys Morales and Edwin Encarnacion are NOT really Having Similar Seasons With Toronto taking on Cleveland this weekend, the comparisons of two players inextricably tied to each other in many Blue Jays’ fans minds will face off for the second time this season: Kendrys Morales and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Nick Dika, Cole Nefsky, and Joshua Howsam</em></p>
<h3>Kendrys Morales and Edwin Encarnacion are NOT really Having Similar Seasons</h3>
<p>With Toronto taking on Cleveland this weekend, the comparisons of two players inextricably tied to each other in many Blue Jays’ fans minds will face off for the second time this season: Kendrys Morales and Edwin Encarnacion.</p>
<p>You all know this story by now. The free agent market moved in a direction that no one (not general managers, not player agents, and not Jose Bautista) expected. The Blue Jays moved early to fill their designated hitter vacancy and signed Kendrys Morales to a three-year/$33 million contract. With the market for first base/DH types drying up, the Blue Jays franchise icon and first choice, signed a month later in Cleveland for three years and $60 million (keep in mind the deal has an option for a fourth year) – fewer years and dollars than the Jays offered at the beginning of the offseason in either case.</p>
<p>A look at more traditional stats have led some to suggest Morales (.255 AVG, 17 HR, 52 RBI) and Encarnacion (.255, 19 HR, 50 RBI) are having similar seasons. But when it comes to some of the less traditional elements of offensive production, Encarnacion has been far better than Morales in 2017.</p>
<p>When it comes to getting on base, Encarnacion’s on-base percentage is 60 points higher than Morales’. Encarnacion’s 55 walks also mean he has been on base 32 more times than Morales already this season. Encarnacion’s ability to reach base has likely contributed to more runs scored: 57 to Morales’ 43.</p>
<p>The odd thing is that Morales does hit the ball harder than Encarnacion. The Jays&#8217; current DH is in the top-25 in all of baseball in terms of average exit velocity, ahead of players like Bryce Harper and Miguel Cabrera with an average exit velocity of 92.1 miles per hour. EE meanwhile sits a tick above league average (87.69) at 88.68 mph. Despite his outstanding exit velocity, what seems to be limiting the damage of Morales’ hard hit balls is his groundball tendency. Morales has hit the ball on the ground 50.2% of the time this season compared to 31.9% of the time for Encarnacion. League average should be around 44%.</p>
<p>The mere fact that Kendrys Morales is the next player to occupy the DH position doesn’t mean we need to measure him against his predecessor. Morales can be better, no move is made in a vacuum and ultimately, it sure doesn’t feel like the difference between a successful and unsuccessful 2017 for the Blue Jays would be Edwin’s bat in the lineup (assuming he doesn’t play left field that is). Because of a high walk rate and his ability to keep the ball off the ground, Encarnacion has been a much more productive player than Kendrys Morales this season even with a slow start and a drop in Encarnacion’s slugging percentage. Despite what the national TV broadcast stats say Edwin is the far better offensive player. But don’t worry…because Justin Smoak is a beast now.</p>
<h3>Lost Lindor</h3>
<p>After coming out of the gate with a modified style, swinging for the fences, and clearly buying into all of the air-ball-revolution hubbub, Francisco Lindor has been pretty disappointing this season. His TAv sits at .259, a career low, which looks even worse when you consider how hot he started. There was even a point, albeit very early in the season, when Ben Lindbergh on <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/effectively-wild-episode-1051-the-mike-trout-challengers/" target="_blank">the Effectively Wild podcast</a> addressed the question of whether or not Lindor had taken Mike Trout’s place as the top player in the league.</p>
<p>This point, though seemingly silly on its surface, was actually one well-made and worth considering. Last year, Lindor was one of the best defensive shortstops in the league with 19.3 FRAA. If you combine that with the ~.320 TAv that he had early in the year, that gives you a player with better WARP than Trout. Since then, though, Lindor hasn’t been very good at all. The two components causing this are his BABIP, sitting at .266, and his glove, worth -1.3 FRAA. That’s right, <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-francisco-lindor-effect-is-ridiculous/" target="_blank">the Lindor Effect</a>, coined by Jeff Sullivan, seems to have disappeared from the world entirely.</p>
<p>Now, this means two things of note. The first is that he has been extraordinarily bad, suggesting that he has probably had some sort of skill deterioration. The other is that it is more than possible that you should expect Lindor to regress somewhat back to the mean. His .266 BABIP isn’t average, where it used to be above average. It’s not even just below average. It is downright terrible. Fielding, on the other hand, doesn’t often make 20 run true talent turnarounds between seasons. Francisco Lindor has been one of my favorite players to watch since his ascendency to the Bigs, and I hope that he returns to being that player. Just maybe after the series against the Jays.</p>
<h3>LOTS OF STRIKEOUTS</h3>
<p>It’s not real secret that the Jays aren’t designed to be a team that makes a ton of contact. Built around the expected power of guys like Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, Jose Bautista, Kendrys Morales, Justin Smoak, and Russell Martin, this club was always expected to strike out at a higher than average clip. Surprisingly though, as a team they have the 12th fewest strikeouts in baseball and the sixth fewest in the American League. So as a whole, the club actually strikes out less than the average club.</p>
<p>That’s likely going to change in this series, however. The Cleveland pitching staff has had its great performances and mediocre or a bad ones, but across the board they have one thing in common: They are really good at striking hitters out; Cleveland’s staff as a whole has a K/9 of 10.03, which ranks second in baseball to the Houston Astros (10.2).</p>
<p>Typically people associate the daunting Cleveland bullpen or ace Corey Kluber with the big strikeout rate. They’d be correct of course, as Kluber, Andrew Miller, Cody Allen, and Boone Logan all have K/9’s over 12.00, but they’re not the only sources. The Jays are lucky to miss Kluber in this series, but they’ll still have trouble with the remaining starters.</p>
<p>The Jays are likely to see the trio of Trevor Bauer (unless he starts playing with drones again), Carlos Carrasco, and Danny Salazar. Their respective K/9s: 10.1, 10.0, 12.6. That’s a LOT of swing and miss. Then if they get into the earlier parts of the Cleveland pen, the Jays will still have to deal with Nick Goody (10.4) and Zack McAllister (10.6).</p>
<p>It’ll be interesting to see how the Jays adjust to these types of arms. Salazar and Bauer can absolutely be hit hard (as evidenced by their respective ERAs of 5.40 and 5.59), but the swing and miss means Toronto will likely have trouble stringing hits together (a problem they have faced all season). This could mean more dreaded smallball (the Blue Jays are actually second in the AL in sac bunts), but in the end, to win the series the Jays will need to rely on the long ball as they have for much of the past two seasons. If they hit home runs, they have a great shot to win the series and finish the road trip at or better than .500 (they&#8217;re currently 3-4). If the ball stays in the yard, Cleveland shouldn&#8217;t have too much difficulty with Toronto.</p>
<p><strong>UPDATE:</strong></p>
<p>Now it <a href="https://twitter.com/CleveIndiansRR/status/888450667223896064" target="_blank">looks like</a> the Jays WILL face Kluber in Sunday&#8217;s finale. Yikes.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Goodbye, Edwin: Encarnacion Signs with Cleveland</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/22/goodbye-edwin-encarnacion-signs-with-cleveland/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/22/goodbye-edwin-encarnacion-signs-with-cleveland/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 23 Dec 2016 01:56:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Indians]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7921</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We tried to believe. We shouted for Rogers to &#8220;Pay the Man,&#8221; and hoped against all odds that the booming attendance and television numbers would provide enough payroll space. Even when the writing was on the wall with the Kendrys Morales signing, some of us convinced ourselves it was ok; Edwin can play first base! [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We tried to believe. We shouted for Rogers to &#8220;Pay the Man,&#8221; and hoped against all odds that the booming attendance and television numbers would provide enough payroll space. Even when the writing was on the wall with <a title="Report: Blue Jays Sign DH Kendrys Morales" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/11/report-blue-jays-sign-dh-kendrys-morales/" target="_blank">the Kendrys Morales signing</a>, some of us convinced ourselves it was ok; Edwin can play first base! Paul Kinzer certainly helped fan the flames of hope with his <a href="http://www.tsn.ca/encarnacion-s-agent-says-jays-showing-edwin-the-most-love-1.619496" target="_blank">recent report that the Jays were &#8220;showing Edwin the most love.&#8221;</a> Well, hope can only take us so far. After signing Steve Pearce and many &#8220;<a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2016/12/05/blue-jays-sign-steve-pearce-making-encarnacion-return-unlikely.html" target="_blank">hints</a>&#8221; from Ross Atkins that Encarnacion would not be back, it is finally official.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="nl" dir="ltr">Indians get EE</p>
<p>&mdash; Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) <a href="https://twitter.com/JonHeyman/status/812112125170741249?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 23, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: The three-year deal for Edwin Encarnacion includes a club option for $20M. The buyout is $5M, which is part of the $60M guarantee.</p>
<p>&mdash; Jeff Passan (@JeffPassan) <a href="https://twitter.com/JeffPassan/status/812113481495351296?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">December 23, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Edwin Encarnacion is no longer a member of the Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not a lot of years, so it&#8217;s going to hurt. The Jays should have been in there and weren&#8217;t. Edwin Encarnacion is a star, and now he&#8217;s going to be one for the Indians.</p>
<p>It can be tough to put into words what players like Encarnacion (and the yet-to-sign Jose Bautista) mean to a franchise. Over the last five years, we have watched him hit, and hit, and hit. Since 2012, Edwin Encarnacion owns a line of .272/.367/.544 with 193 home runs, 550 RBI and 145 doubles. Heck, he even threw in 27 stolen bases for good measure. The man has been an offensive machine.</p>
<p>It’s been more than that, though. When he first arrived as a throw-in as part of the Scott Rolen trade who couldn&#8217;t really play third base, nobody was thinking of Edwin Encarnacion as a long term fixture in this city. But along the way, he became one of <em>our guys</em>. We watched him blossom into a man with who hit so many home runs that he developed a unique trot. He became the man we counted on to produce when the game was on the line. Think of some of the most memorable events of the last few years. How many involved Edwin Encarnacion?</p>
<p>There were countless times when Edwin was the star for this team, but three games stick out specifically. The first came in 2015 when he caused hats to rain down from the stands, debuting a uniquely Canadian way to celebrate a three home run game at home (Donaldson matched it this year).</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=425866483&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<p>Then later in the year we saw him send a ball soaring into the night against Cole Hamels in the ALDS. It gave us hope in a game that was in doubt. That game-tying home run set the stage for the famous Bat Flip and all the drama that unfolded in the seventh inning of Game 5.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=523041283&amp;topic_id=6479266&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<p>And most recently, in what felt like his crescendo as a Blue Jay, Edwin crushed a ball against Ubaldo Jimenez to propel the Blue Jays through the Wild Card and into an ALDS rematch against the hated Rangers. He raised his arms in triumph, and we were right there with him.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1202715383&amp;topic_id=11493214&amp;width=500&amp;height=280&amp;property=mlb" width="500" height="280" ></iframe></p>
<p>It was perfect.</p>
<p>In fact, it felt complete. If Encarnacion was going to leave, at least he gave us that moment. That feeling. He allowed us to imagine that we could make peace with seeing him in another uniform, knowing we would remember how happy he made us in Blue Jays blue. Now we&#8217;re going to put that theory to the test.</p>
<p>Of course, that’s not to say it has always been rosy. Fans used to call him “E5” derisively to mock his defensive troublse, he was waived in 2011, and there’s the <a title="TMZ Reports that Edwin Encarnacion is Being Sued" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/22/tmz-reports-that-edwin-encarnacion-is-being-sued/" target="_blank">ugliness of his pending lawsuit</a>, which should not be ignored.</p>
<p>But on the ball field, Edwin Encarnacion is as good as they come. He&#8217;s not going to New York or Boston, which should at least be of some comfort, but he will now anchor the middle of what should be a very potent Cleveland lineup. Flanked in the order by elite hitters Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis, and Carlos Santana, Edwin should continue to rack up the counting stats and while he walks the parrot around Cleveland. With this signing, a very good opponent just got much better, which means the Blue Jays road to the post season also became a lot tougher.</p>
<p>Reading that is going anger a lot of people, and the sting could last for a good, long while, but as Jenn Smith <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/14/this-week-in-blue-jays/" target="_blank">recently so rightly opined</a>, the cure for all of this is winning. That means Ross Atkins and Mark Shapiro need to get to work. The Morales signing was a start, but he doesn&#8217;t come close to replacing the void left by Encarnacion&#8217;s production, let alone Bautista and Saunders. There&#8217;s nobody left out there who can do it alone, so the club will have to do it by committee. There are still lineup holes at first base (sort of &#8211; don&#8217;t try to tell me that Justin Smoak is a viable strong side of a platoon with Pearce), left field, and right field. If the front office folk can find meaningful upgrades at each spot, they can mitigate the loss of the superstar first baseman/DH. If not, this team will once again be back in the &#8220;if everything breaks right&#8221; mode, which nobody wants.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s time to step up, Atkins and Shapiro. We&#8217;ve gotten used to winning, and we&#8217;re not ready to stop now.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: David Richard-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Mark Shapiro, Alex Anthopoulos, and the Failures of Change</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/26/mark-shapiro-alex-anthopoulos-and-the-failures-of-change/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Oct 2016 11:53:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[The Season That Was]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[alex anthopoulos]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[dodgers]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mark shapiro]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7676</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[History as we know it is defined in eras. Sports history is no different. When we think back to dynasties in baseball’s past, they’re asssociated with something specific. First, it was managers as the face of teams; like the Connie Mack A’s or the John McGraw Giants. That eventually gave way to the player era: [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>History as we know it is defined in eras. Sports history is no different. When we think back to dynasties in baseball’s past, they’re asssociated with something specific. First, it was managers as the face of teams; like the Connie Mack A’s or the John McGraw Giants. That eventually gave way to the player era: the Babe Ruth Yankees, the Stan Musial Cardinals, and the George Brett Royals.</p>
<p>In each of those cases, the team was defined by the most influential guy in the clubhouse. He was the one that fans saw driving the success of their beloved franchise, and therefore the one that they admired. However, we have now moved into the third age, where the clubhouse is no longer where baseball fans look to evaluate team success.  Franchises are now defined by the executives that built the team. One need look no further than one half of the current World Series matchup. It&#8217;s not Arrieta&#8217;s Cubs or Rizzo&#8217;s Cubs; it&#8217;s the Team that Theo Built. For the Blue Jays, the same was true of Alex Anthopoulos. Josh Donaldson was the Blue Jays&#8217; star talent and Jose Bautista was the soul, but it was Anthopoulos&#8217; team.</p>
<p>Our perception of Alex changed over time, and it followed along with changes in his demeanour. He came to us young, baby-faced, and as a memory of the previous generation. But he left us <a href="//www.youtube.com/watch?v=Wg9fdxQUcjc&amp;ab_channel=xaveruth”">older, bearded, and as the man who brought playoff baseball back to Toronto</a>. Things <a href="//www.bluejaysplus.com/the-season-that-will-be-its-judgement-year-for-alex-anthopoulos/“">weren’t always as rosy as the reaction to Anthopoulos’ exit seemed</a>, but he will be remembered for how he finished: (nearly) on top.</p>
<p>As the new Blue Jays decision makers, Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins have made additions to this team, but the core of the roster is entirely Alex Anthopoulos&#8217;. As such, that creates an attachment between the Jays and the Anthopoulos&#8217; era that isn&#8217;t easy to break. Shapiro has learned that the hard way while the fanbase has gone thought the Kübler-Ross model’s five stages of grief.</p>
<p>The first four stages came in fairly quick succession. Fans <a href="//twitter.com/Correia47/status/659727500407238657”">denied the possibility that AA could truly be gone</a>. Then they <a href="//twitter.com/n_thurm/status/677584561841176576”">angrily criticized the replacement</a>, Mark Shapiro. But Shapiro didn’t care, he knew what was really at stake.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Mark Shapiro is more concerned with winning than being well-liked, writes John Lott. <a href="https://t.co/OmWv4ODIUG">https://t.co/OmWv4ODIUG</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) <a href="https://twitter.com/Buster_ESPN/status/682160481101045761">December 30, 2015</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>When you think about it, it’s actually kind of remarkable how well Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins transitioned in to the helm of the Blue Jays. Regardless of how hard they tried, the fanbase as a whole was still opposed. There were instances in which <a href="//twitter.com/BFinleyy/status/685668661265313793”">they got some credit</a>, as Jays fans bargained with themselves on whether or not to believe. But, there were always others trying to find <a href="//twitter.com/KyleMeloTSN/status/714962254521896961”">something to protest</a>. We were sad.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Anthopoulos leaving the Jays.  <a href="https://t.co/dKLcO8d6At">https://t.co/dKLcO8d6At</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Gruber&#39;s Mullet (@GrubersMullet) <a href="https://twitter.com/GrubersMullet/status/695334802627497987">February 4, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>In general, each of the five stages in the Kübler-Ross model comes one after another, but a particular time period is not stipulated for each. Above, we’ve run through the first four, but that leaves the last stage: acceptance.</p>
<p>As you might imagine, Jays fans have been reluctant to accept the Shapiro-Atkins (or Shapatkins) duo, and there are a few different reasons behind this. For starters, the transition could not have come at a worse time. When he left, Alex Anthopoulos was at the peak of his popularity. Not only had he taken the team to the playoffs for the first time in two decades, but, more importantly, he finally made Toronto feel like a big market team. In David Price and Troy Tulowitzki, the Blue Jays had acquired the two biggest pieces on the midseason trade market. If Canadians like anything, it’s feeling important. Alex made that happen.</p>
<p>Mark Shapiro on the other hand is the American whose first major Blue Jays headline was a report that he <a href="//www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/toronto-blue-jays-alex-anthopoulos-leaving-team-denied-extension-mark-shapiro-102915”">staunchly opposed those very same trades that reinvigorated the fan base</a>. He may end up being right, that the Jays’ 2015 deadline trades won’t end up being worth the prospects they cost, but being right isn’t the only thing that matters. Public perception is important too, and Shapiro&#8217;s lack of public relations perceptiveness has only made the transition of leadership worse.</p>
<p>Things started with the opposition to the trades–a report that <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2015/11/shapiro-president-blue-jays-retain-john-gibbons.html" target="_blank">Shapiro has since denied</a>– and further continued throughout his first year as President and CEO. In the first month of the offseason, with David Price, the symbol of the Blue Jays&#8217; big-marketedness, set to sign, Shapiro kept the team <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/shapiro-blue-jays-didnt-aggressively-pursue-price/" target="_blank">firmly out of strong negotiations</a>. In a vacuum, that&#8217;s a pragmatic decision. David Price is unlikely to be worth the $217 million that he&#8217;ll be paid over seven years, and with three big sluggers set to hit free agency over the following three years, the Jays could use the financial flexibility. However, Price wasn&#8217;t just any other pitcher to Toronto. Not only was he the crown jewel of the trade deadline, but he <a href="https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/09/05/baseball-contenders-strengths-could-also-weaknesses/OWkq0Yt8QCMWRikkgvwkFL/story.html" target="_blank">repeatedly iterated how much he loved the team and the city</a>. For a Toronto sports market that has historically been told that American sports stars aren&#8217;t jumping to sign north of the border, Price was the messiah. If it doesn&#8217;t make good baseball sense, you don&#8217;t sign David Price. But, you can at least make it look like you tried.</p>
<p>The issues continued through the end of the offseason, as Shapiro once again rejected something that fans held dear: <a href="http://news.nationalpost.com/sports/mlb/toronto-blue-jays-mark-shapiro-says-grass-at-rogers-centre-is-not-a-top-priority" target="_blank">real grass at the Rogers Centre</a>. He didn&#8217;t say that it wouldn&#8217;t happen, just that it wasn&#8217;t one of his priorities. However, he didn&#8217;t <em>need</em> to say anything at all.</p>
<p>Later yet, a similar situation occurred in-season, this time from the mouth of his right hand man Ross Atkins. For what seemed like months, the Blue Jays pondered whether or not to place Aaron Sanchez in the bullpen. Again, pondering is good. It&#8217;s an important decision that the team needs to consider as there are implications for both the present and the future. That discussion didn&#8217;t need to happen in public, however. The result was a flip-flopping front office that ultimately handled Sanchez well, but made no friends along the way.</p>
<p>This isn&#8217;t to say that Mark Shapiro&#8217;s first year has been a disaster, in fact it&#8217;s been anything but. Here are all of his major transactions:</p>
<ul>
<li>Signed <strong>Marco Estrada</strong> for two years, $26 million</li>
<li>Traded Liam Hendriks to Oakland for <strong>Jesse Chavez</strong></li>
<li>Signed <strong>J.A. Happ</strong> for three years, $36 million</li>
<li>Drafted <strong>Joe Biagini</strong> from San Francisco in the Rule V Draft</li>
<li>Traded Ben Revere to Washington for <strong>Drew Storen</strong></li>
<li>Traded Sean Ratcliffe to Atlanta for <strong>Jason Grilli</strong></li>
<li>Extended <strong>Justin Smoak</strong> for two years, $8.25 million</li>
<li>Traded Drew Storen to Seattle for <strong>Joaquin Benoit</strong></li>
<li>Traded Hansel Rodriguez to San Diego for <strong>Melvin Upton Jr.</strong> and cash considerations</li>
<li>Traded Jesse Chavez to the Dodgers for <strong>Mike Bolsinger</strong></li>
<li>Traded Lupe Chavez to Houston for <strong>Scott Feldman</strong></li>
<li>Traded Drew Hutchison to Pittsburgh for <strong>Francisco Liriano</strong>, <strong>Reese McGuire</strong>, and <strong>Harold Ramirez</strong></li>
<li>Traded Colton Turner to the White Sox for <strong>Dioner Navarro</strong></li>
</ul>
<p>That&#8217;s thirteen relatively significant transactions. If you evaluate them to this point, you could argue there&#8217;s only one bad one in the bunch: the Justin Smoak extension. There would be those who&#8217;d argue against the Revere, Upton, Feldman, and Hendriks trades, but each of the four have mitigating circumstances of their own. Drew Storen, while very bad, actually finished with a higher WARP than Ben Revere. Melvin Upton and Scott Feldman had troubles of their own, but each cost very little to acquire, and one could therefore argue that their upside was worth it. The Liam Hendriks trade is the next closest to being given a thumbs down, but the Jays&#8217; turned Jesse Chavez into Mike Bolsinger, who at least has a shot at being the best value of the three.</p>
<p>If we were partying like it was 1999 and executives weren&#8217;t in the media spotlight, we&#8217;d probably have evaluated 2016 as a good first year for the new Blue Jays&#8217; front office. Unfortunately for Mark and the gang, that isn&#8217;t the case. It&#8217;s the Executive Era and a passionate Jays fanbase that has a thirst for knowledge is something that they&#8217;ll have to learn to adjust to. The fanbase seems to have accepted the fact that Shapiro and Atkins are the new normal, but doesn&#8217;t yet approve of all their methods. Is that fair? Empirically, probably not. This doesn&#8217;t mean that we should let the new front office off the hook, but they deserve time to do their work. After two full seasons, they will have made their impression on the team, and it&#8217;s direction. They&#8217;ve made the task of wooing the fanbase as hard for themselves as possible, but that&#8217;s nothing that a successful 2017 season can&#8217;t fix.</p>
<p><em>Over the next week or so, other writers at BP Toronto will be sharing their thoughts on the 2016 season in our series &#8220;The Season that Was.&#8221; <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/category/the-season-that-was/" target="_blank">You can read them all here</a>. Look for a new one every day.</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>ALCS Game 5 Recap: Cleveland 3, Toronto 0; Not With a Bang but a Whisper</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/19/alcs-game-5-recap-cleveland-3-toronto-0-not-with-a-bang-but-a-whisper/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/19/alcs-game-5-recap-cleveland-3-toronto-0-not-with-a-bang-but-a-whisper/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Oct 2016 23:05:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALCS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[el;imination]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[loss]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7603</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As with all of their other losses in the ALCS, the Blue Jays fell behind early, and failed to figure any way to come back over the next 8 innings. The Jays fell 3-0, and in the series 4-1, and I don&#8217;t recall them ever getting a runner to third base. Things did not start [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As with all of their other losses in the ALCS, the Blue Jays fell behind early, and failed to figure any way to come back over the next 8 innings. The Jays fell 3-0, and in the series 4-1, and I don&#8217;t recall them ever getting a runner to third base.</p>
<p>Things did not start off well for the Blue Jays in this win or go home game, and they didn&#8217;t get any better as the innings wore on.</p>
<p>A Mike Napoli double off of starter Marco Estrada resulted in a 1-0 deficit for the Jays before they even got a chance to bat. Their bats were completely paralyzed by the rookie junkballer Ryan Merritt, as he faced one over the minimum through his four and a third innings.</p>
<p>Solo home runs by Carlos Santana and Coco Crisp made it a 3-0 hole, and the Blue Jays found themselves inside a seemingly bottomless pit, from which their offense was reluctant to climb.</p>
<p>Cecil, Biagini and Osuna held the line, once again giving up zero runs over their combined three frames, but in a familiar turn of events, the Blue Jays could not solve the Cleveland bullpen.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista doubled to lead off the 9th, in what might well be his last at-bat as a Blue Jay. Two strikeouts and a popup later, the Blue Jays 2016 season was over. Cleveland moves on to the World Series.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The game was, in a way, won in the first inning with that Mike Napoli run scoring double. That hit raised the odds of a Cleveland victory by 11%, and they just kept inching upwards from there.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Josh Donaldson did not have an MVP calibre day, highlighted by the double play he hit into in the 6th inning, that twin killing cost the Jays .058 of a win. It&#8217;s also a note about how few opportunities the Jays had, since nothing moved the needle more than 6% for Toronto.</p>
<h3>Bautista Goes Out Hitting?</h3>
<p>Jose Bautista&#8217;s Toronto tenure may be over. He did himself proud on this day, going 2-4 with a double on a day when not other Jays got multiple hits, or hit for extra bases. As he rolls into free agency, there are many Blue Jay moments that will define his career, and the franchise&#8217;s history. Players like that are few and far between</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Staring out the window and waiting for spring. (Well, a World Series next week if you still need baseball in your life for a few more games.)</p>
<p>Lead Photo&nbsp;Credit -Nick Turchiaro&nbsp;<strong>USA TODAY Sports </strong></p>
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		<title>ALCS Game 3 Recap: Cleveland 4, Blue Jays 2; Toronto Bleeds Out Slowly</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/17/alcs-game-3-recap-cleveland-4-blue-jays-2-toronto-bleeds-out-slowly/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Oct 2016 03:49:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALCS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[loss Trevor Bauer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[playoffs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7523</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Injury chased their starter early, but Cleveland&#8217;s bullpen continued to have an answer for every Jays threat. Toronto would never take the lead, falling 4-2 in the game and are now down 3-0 in the series. Cleveland drew first blood on a Mike Napoli double, but Toronto lashed back in the bottom of the 1st. After [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Injury chased their starter early, but Cleveland&#8217;s bullpen continued to have an answer for every Jays threat. Toronto would never take the lead, falling 4-2 in the game and are now down 3-0 in the series.</p>
<p>Cleveland drew first blood on a Mike Napoli double, but Toronto lashed back in the bottom of the 1st. After throwing just 19 pitches, the blood gushing from the drone-inflicted wound on Trevor Bauer&#8217;s pinky became to much to ignore. Two pats on the cheek from Terry Francona and Bauer&#8217;s night was done.</p>
<p>If Cleveland goes on to lose this series, they&#8217;ll be calling it The Curse of the Dronebino.</p>
<p>Dan Otero warmed up in a hurry, and quickly served up a homer to Michael Saunders to knot that game at 1-1 in the 2nd. It looked like things would start to snowball out of control for Cleveland; you can&#8217;t throw Andrew Miller out there in the 3rd and the Jays would feast on the no-name back end of the bullpen. That&#8217;s how it played out in my head.</p>
<p>Instead, the Jays were shut down by guys named Jeff Manship and Zack McAllister, and Napoli crushed the first pitch he saw in the 4th into the stands to put Cleveland back on top. With Cleveland comfortably leading in the 7th, the air went out of the Rogers Centre as fans waited for Andrew Miller to jog in.</p>
<p>But instead in came Bryan Shaw, and then Cody Allen, and with a rally brewing in the bottom of the 7th Miller remained seated. Shades of Zach Britton. Donaldson stepped up to the plate with men on second and first and hit the first pitch from Allen right on the money, which in the 2016 ALCS means right into Coco Crisp&#8217;s glove.</p>
<p>Andrew Miller finally came in with two outs in the 8th, and did what he does. It took seven pitchers &#8211; and 149 pitches<strong> </strong>- to win the game for Cleveland. A lot of the credit&#8217;s going to go to Francona for &#8220;pulling this one out of a hat&#8221; after Bauer&#8217;s pinky busted open in the 1st, and that&#8217;s deserved. He&#8217;s consistently gotten the matchups he wants, and he&#8217;s been aggressive on the basepaths and with defensive positioning.</p>
<p>Make no mistake, though, this game wasn&#8217;t won by Cleveland, it was lost by the Jays&#8217; bats.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Jason Kipnis&#8217; go-ahead homer in the 5th was worth +0.163 WPA. According to Statcast, the dinger was clocked at 107.3 MPH &#8211; the fastest ball of Kipnis&#8217; bat all season.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Pillar&#8217;s strikeout in the 9th lowered the Jays chances of winning by 7.7%, but we won&#8217;t hold it against him.</p>
<h3>Cleveland runs wild again</h3>
<p>We knew it would be bad, but not this bad. After Rajai Davis burned up the basepaths to score the game-winning run in Game 2, Coco Crisp got things rolling early against Stroman in the 2nd. He stole second without a throw, and then pressured a wild pitch that allowed him to get to third base.</p>
<p>I understand that the Jays rotation isn&#8217;t going to give up the count to a batter in order to focus on controlling the running game, but they could at least feign interest. Crisp took the kind of lead you take when you know the pitcher isn&#8217;t paying attention, but if Stroman had glanced over he would&#8217;ve had him picked off easily. Even Mike Napoli got in on the action, taking advantage of a pitch in the dirt to swipe a bag.</p>
<h3>The Ever Changing Strike Zone</h3>
<p>The strike zone was once again a point of contention early on, as Brian Gorman was all over the place. The problem wasn&#8217;t so much accuracy, but consistency. One moment he would be calling the inside fastball a strike, next moment it would be a ball. Seemed to go both ways, though, but a called strike against Michael Saunders stands out on the left of this graphic.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/chart.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7542 size-medium" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/chart-300x300.png" alt="chart" width="300" height="300" /></a></p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>In an in-game interview right after Bauer was forced to leave the game, Francona said Kluber would be starting Game 4. It&#8217;ll be short rest, but who better to hand the ball to in an elimination game than last year&#8217;s Cy Young winner? (I mean, yes, Andrew Miller would be better.) Aaron Sanchez will toe the hill for the Jays at 4 p.m. EST.</p>
<p><strong> Lead Photo Credit</strong>- <em>Nick Turchiaro </em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>ALCS Game 2 Recap: Cleveland 2, Blue Jays 1; Bats Rinse And Repeat To Put Jays Behind 2-0 In Series</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/15/alcs-game-2-recap-cleveland-2-blue-jays-1-bats-rinse-and-repeat-to-put-jays-behind-2-0-in-series/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sat, 15 Oct 2016 23:14:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7496</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays have dug themselves a bit of a hole. After a 2-0 loss in Game One of the ALCS Friday night, the Jays looked to regroup in an effort to split the first two games before heading back to Toronto. First, came a roster-shake up. Manager John Gibbons moved Troy Tulowitzki ahead of a slumping [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays have dug themselves a bit of a hole.</p>
<p>After a 2-0 loss in Game One of the ALCS Friday night, the Jays looked to regroup in an effort to split the first two games before heading back to Toronto. First, came a roster-shake up. Manager John Gibbons moved Troy Tulowitzki ahead of a slumping Russell Martin in the lineup, a move that, to many, seemed long overdue. Second baseman Devon Travis, who left last night&#8217;s game after aggravating a knee injury, was replaced by Darwin Barney (more on that below).</p>
<p>Cleveland took an early lead when Carlos Santana led off the second inning with a solo shot to left-centre field. The Jays tied the game in the top of the third when Josh Donaldson doubled to right field to drive home Darwin Barney, who had reached on a single. The Jays fell victim to Cleveland&#8217;s running game in the bottom of the inning when former Blue Jay Rajai Davis reached base, stole second, advanced to third on a wild pitch, and subsequently scored on a single by Francisco Lindor.</p>
<p>Once again, the Jays&#8217; pitching was outstanding, with J.A. Happ, Joe Biagini and Roberto Osuna holding Cleveland to just four hits and two walks with six strikeouts. For the second game in a row, the Jays&#8217; offense simply couldn&#8217;t get anything going off Cleveland&#8217;s pitching.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With a runner on second and down by a run, Josh Donaldson stroked a double to right field to drive home Darwin Barney for the Jays&#8217; only run of the game. Though the Jays ultimately lost the game, it was the top play by WPA (.120).</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Down by a run in the top of the ninth, Edwin Encarnacion struck out looking for the first out of the inning and the bottom play of the game by WPA (-.071).</p>
<h3>Devon Travis is Done for the Season</h3>
<p>Prior to today&#8217;s game, it was reported that Devon Travis had flown to Toronto for an MRI on his injured knee. About an hour before first pitch, the Jays announced that the MRI revealed an injury that had not appeared during tests last week and that MLB had approved him being replaced on the roster with Justin Smoak. Had MLB deemed the injury a pre-existing condition not suffered in last night&#8217;s game, they could have denied his replacement. The loss of Travis for the remainder of the postseason is a blow to the Jays&#8217; offense, as Travis was one of their most consistent and versatile hitters all season. Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins will instead take over duties at second base but will not play a straight platoon; John Gibbons said which one starts will depend on matchups.</p>
<h3>Can&#8217;t Hit the Curveball&#8230;or Andrew Miller</h3>
<p>The Jays&#8217; hot bats of October have suddenly gone ice cold again. They managed just three hits &#8211; their only three hits of the game &#8211; off starter Josh Tomlin, who used his curveball very effectively and far more often than is typical for him to induce ground ball outs while striking out six. After a brief appearance by Bryan Shaw, it was Andrew Miller time in Cleveland, who mowed down the Jays, striking out five of six batters faced.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>After an off-day tomorrow, the ALCS will resume with Game Three in Toronto Monday night. Marcus Stroman will take the mound against Trevor Bauer in what can only be described as a must-win game for Toronto. First pitch flies at 8:00 PM ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: David Richard &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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