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	<title>Toronto &#187; Baltimore Orioles</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/11/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-orioles-3/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Sep 2017 16:35:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Nick Dika, Bennett Brauer, and Joshua Howsam Can the Blue Jays Pitcher’s Exploit Baltimore’s Swing First Lineup? The Orioles have spent most of their 2017 season following their typical formula for contention: pair a strong offence with an elite bullpen and cross your fingers that the starting pitching will be good enough. Despite [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Nick Dika, Bennett Brauer, and Joshua Howsam</em></p>
<h3><strong>Can the Blue Jays Pitcher’s Exploit Baltimore’s Swing First Lineup?</strong></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Orioles have spent most of their 2017 season following their typical formula for contention: pair a strong offence with an elite bullpen and cross your fingers that the starting pitching will be good enough.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Despite a starting rotation that has struggled (5.63 starter’s ERA), the Orioles have managed to remain within spitting distance of the second AL Wildcard spot with less than a month to play. Baltimore</span><span style="font-weight: 400">’s ability to remain on the fringes of contention hinges largely on an offense that has continued to produce at a high level &#8211; ranking in the top ten in runs scored (10</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400">), slugging (4</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400">) and wRC+ (9</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400">). Only the Texas Rangers have hit more home runs than the Orioles this season.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Although it may seem difficult to keep the Orioles off the scoreboard, they do appear to have one glaring flaw in the offensive game. The Orioles sit dead last in all of baseball in team walk rate, at 6.4%.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Adam Jones is the worst culprit among full-time starters (4.3%), but part-timers Caleb Joseph (4.1%) and Joey Rickard (3.4%) are also extreme hackers. Jonathan Schoop and Wellington Castillo aren&#8217;t exactly patient either (both 5.4%). In fact, the only Oriole batters to post a walk rate better than eight percent (MLB average is 8.6%) are Chris Davis and Seth Smith.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If Blue Jays’ pitchers can exploit the Orioles tendency to swing more often than take, they might be able to reduce the damage Baltimore’s offence can inflict. If not, runs could be going up in bunches. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In either case, don’t expect to see too many Baltimore hitters working a walk.</span></p>
<h3><strong><b>Worlds Apart at 2B</b></strong></h3>
<p>For much of the second half of their existence, the Blue Jays have had very good second basemen. Hall of Fame inductee Roberto Alomar was world class, Orlando Hudson and Aaron Hill were the mainstays, Johnny Mac’s blue collar hustle made him the fan favourite, and most recently, Devon Travis has shown flashes of greatness when rarely healthy.</p>
<p>This year is very different, however, as a season-ending injury to Travis has caused a huge hole in their lineup.</p>
<p>Darwin Barney, bless his heart, has assumed the brunt of the 2B work, playing 61 games, sporting a meager season-long .587 OPS. Ryan Goins (part-time shortstop) hasn&#8217;t been much better, with a .616 OPS despite good RISP numbers. And the less said about Rob Refsnyder&#8217;s performance, the better.</p>
<p>As a result, it is <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/05/the-blue-jays-need-to-consider-a-future-without-devon-travis/" target="_blank">no wonder</a> why <a href="https://www.fanragsports.com/mlb/inside-baseball-al-notes-white-sox-farm-system-gets-even-better/" target="_blank">there are whispers</a> that the front office is looking for a long-term solution to this predicament.</p>
<p>Contrast that with the Orioles, who seem to have found lightning in a bottle with their second baseman, Jonathan Schoop. Schoop is at the top of many key offensive categories: 2<sup>nd</sup> in the AL in RBI (102), 7th in AL batting average, 10<sup>th</sup> in AL slugging percentage (.535), and 10<sup>th</sup> overall in offensive WAR across ALL of MLB (4.8) with a VORP of 39.3. All of that leaves him 12th in MLB among position players in WARP (4.9).</p>
<p>Not only are those overall numbers excellent, but he has been remarkably consistent this season as well. His first half line saw him put up a .347 OBP and a .536 SLG. In the second half, Schoop has a .355 OBP and a .533 SLG. In short, he has mashed pretty much all season.</p>
<p>With many key Orioles like Chris Davis, Mark Trumbo, Manny Machado (for much of the season) and every starting pitcher not named Dylan Bundy having down years, Schoop has helped keep the Orioles in the Wild Card race. The Jays will have to be very careful with him.</p>
<p>With Schoop under team control through the 2019 season, this position is currently headed in VERY different directions for both teams.</p>
<h3>Will Anybody Come Out And Watch?</h3>
<p>That may seem like an odd question to ask considering the team is currently on pace to surpass three million in attendance for the second straight year. But despite the second highest average attendance in the AL (Yankees are first), there were a lot of empty seats last weekend against the Tigers. The Friday game had an announced crowd of nearly 40K, but nowhere near that many actually showed up. So while the team still banked those gate receipts, concession sales were likely way down.</p>
<p>However, the series finale was likely the real red flag. The 31 961 announced crowd (with again, many no-shows) for a sunny, September, Sunday game &#8211; when the Blue Jays were likely hoping for something close to a sellout &#8211; had to be a massive disappointment both to the players and the front office.</p>
<p>And that was on a weekend. If that level of interest is any indication, the Orioles series in particular is looking like it could bring back some reminders of what Skydome crowds were like before Alex Anthopoulos traded for Troy Tulowitzki and David Price in 2015. One only needs to look at secondary markets to see how &#8220;popular&#8221; the team is right now. For Monday&#8217;s game, fans can sit in the Field Level Infield section (face value of $80) for $6 USD. That&#8217;s the minimum price that StubHub will allow. Tuesday and Wednesday aren&#8217;t looking much better.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s not hard to understand this fan frustration of course. When it comes to playing out the string, the Jays can&#8217;t even market coming out to see the star players, as Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Devon Travis, and Aaron Sanchez are still out, with only Martin having any chance of a return before season&#8217;s end. Sure, there&#8217;s value in seeing the kids (Richard Urena in particular has looked very good), but that&#8217;s hard to sell. Similarly, telling fans to &#8220;come watch the last days of Jose Bautista in a Blue Jays uniform&#8221; isn&#8217;t exactly a message that the team can deliver. It may be (sadly) true (and a very good reason to show up), but they sure can&#8217;t say that out loud.</p>
<p>All this adds up to a quiet, cavernous stadium that hurts not only the in-stadium atmosphere but also the television product. All of this probably has the Blue Jays brass counting their lucky stars that there aren&#8217;t many home games left this season.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for in the Upcoming Blue Jays Series Vs the Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/19/3-things-to-watch-for-in-the-upcoming-blue-jays-series-vs-the-orioles/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 19 May 2017 14:05:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11023</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Andrew Munn, Matt Gwin, and Mike Passador An Orioles Pitching Staff in Shambles The Blue Jays enter the weekend losers of their last series, seeming to have lost some of the momentum that they gained winning eight of the previous ten. What made this past series all the more frustrating is that it [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Andrew Munn, Matt Gwin, and Mike Passador</em></p>
<h4>An Orioles Pitching Staff in Shambles</h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays enter the weekend losers of their last series, seeming to have lost some of the momentum that they gained winning eight of the previous ten. What made this past series all the more frustrating is that it came against the Atlanta Braves, a team who is currently in a rebuilding phase. The Orioles can sympathize with this frustration, given that they have now lost six of their last seven, including a sweep last weekend at the hands of the runt of the AL litter, the Kansas City Royals.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Baltimore’s struggles over the past week cannot be attributed to the whole club. The hitters have continued to perform in typical Oriole fashion, slashing .284/.376/.504 during the stretch. The reason for the team’s struggles falls squarely in the hands of the pitching – specifically the rotation, who have pitched to a 7.01 ERA over their cold stretch. The Orioles starters this weekend will be Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Wade Miley, with Gausman and Miley having been two of the main perpetrators of the rotation’s lousy performance.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This lack of success for the Orioles’ pitching staff has led to the getting knocked out of games early. Over their 1-6 stretch, Orioles starters have averaged only five innings per start. This has required the Orioles bullpen to eat a lot innings over the last week, a bullpen that is already dealing with the loss of Zach Britton to a forearm strain.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Toronto has an opportunity to add on to Baltimore’s pitching woes this weekend. While normally the thought of Baltimore going to their bullpen is a scary one, the absence of Zach Britton combined with their recent increased workload are good omens for a Toronto team who has hit nearly as well as the Orioles (.271/.341/.489) over the last week. If the Blue Jays can continue the trend and get to Baltimore’s starters early, there could be some mashing happening in Baltimore.</span></p>
<h4>Players That Will Coming Back from Injury&#8230;Maybe<strong><strong> </strong></strong></h4>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">The Blue Jays miraculously thumped Atlanta Thursday night with just three Opening Day starters in the lineup. Recent callup Darrell Ceciliani batted cleanup and April-signee Chris Coghlan hit fifth. The team’s second backup catcher of the year hit eighth. And because nothing good can ever last, Ceciliani partially dislocated his shoulder while socking a dinger. So although the team will be shorthanded for Friday’s opening tilt with him out and Kevin Pillar suspended, some help appears to be on the way.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Earlier this week John Gibbons got everyone fired up when he speculated that Josh Donaldson and Troy Tulowitzki could return around the team’s trip to Atlanta </span><a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/blue-jays-pushing-back-troy-tulowitzkis-return-lineup/"><span style="font-weight: 400">but had to walk back those comments after he “jumped the gun” on their respective recoveries</span></a><span style="font-weight: 400">. Given the state of the lineup, it’s hard to blame him.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">While Donaldson won’t be back this weekend, it looks like Tulowitzki could make an appearance at Camden Yards. Rainy conditions pushed back the start of his rehab stint on Saturday, and with Dunedin off Sunday it meant that Tulowitzki didn’t return to action until Monday. He went 1-for-3 in that game and played shortstop before going 0-for-2 with a walk as the DH on Tuesday. He got a day off on Wednesday and went 1-for-3 last night while playing the field, furthering speculation that he’ll be back sooner rather than later. He could be in line for one or two more rehab games but could just as easily return to the big club for the series opener. Either way, it wouldn’t be surprising to see a regular face back at shortstop in Baltimore.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Elsewhere, Russell Martin went on the 10-day DL on May 8th with a left shoulder problem. While he didn’t come off the DL when first eligible on Thursday, he was able to catch side sessions from Aaron Sanchez and Francisco Liriano on Wednesday and Thursday, respectively. With him unlikely to need a rehab assignment, Martin’s return could come sooner rather than later.</span><strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Beyond the obvious benefits of having really good baseball players available, this should ease some of the burden on Toronto’s thin bench. They had been rolling with nine relievers and just two bench bats until Pillar’s suspension spurred an 8-3 split, so a return to health would give the team much more flexibility in terms of late game substitutions. Exactly who sees the door is yet to be determined, but beyond Mike Ohlman and Dwight Smith the team’s affinity for collecting middle-infield types points to a pitcher drawing the short straw.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Regardless, the Blue Jays are mercifully inching their way back to full health.</span></p>
<h4>Lefty Power Will Thrive in Baltimore<strong><strong> </strong></strong></h4>
<p>When people usually think of left handers hitting home runs in the American league, they think of Yankee Stadium and the infamous short porch. However, Camden Yards is surprisingly lefty power heavy. Per FanGraphs’ park factors, left handed hitters at both Yankee Stadium and Camden Yards have a <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/guts.aspx?type=pfh&amp;season=2015&amp;teamid=0&amp;sort=8,d">15% higher chance of hitting a homerun than they would at a neutral stadium</a>. When you look at the an overlay of the park, it really makes sense.<strong><strong> </strong></strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Camden-Yards-Yankee-Stadium.jpg"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11024 size-medium" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Camden-Yards-Yankee-Stadium-300x295.jpg" alt="Camden-Yards-Yankee-Stadium" width="300" height="295" /></a></p>
<p><em>Image via <a href="http://www.hittrackeronline.com/ballpark_overlay.php">ESPN Home Run Tracker</a></em></p>
<p>At Camden Yards the right field corner is 318 feet from home plate, compared to 314 to the short porch at Yankee Stadium.</p>
<p>While the Blue Jays don’t have any truly powerful left handed hitters, they do of course have two powerful switch hitters in Justin Smoak and Kendrys Morales. Fortunately, both Smoak and Morales have shown quite a bit more power from the left side. In his career, Smoak has hit home runs in 4 percent of his plate appearance from the left side compared to 3.3 percent from the right side. Morales’ difference is even more pronounced with home runs in 4.4 percent of his plate appearances from the left and 3.1 percent as a right hander.</p>
<p>On top of all that, the Blue Jays will be facing three right handed starters this weekend in Chris Tillman, Kevin Gausman, and Ubaldo Jimenez. For a Toronto team that, as mentioned above, will still be missing its big guns on Friday, they’ll need to take advantage of any edge that they can get.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays Weigh in on the Red Sox and Orioles Feud</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/04/the-blue-jays-weigh-in-on-the-red-sox-and-orioles-feud/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 04 May 2017 10:01:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[NEW YORK – The Blue Jays are not well liked across Major League Baseball. The loud style of play that endears the team to its fans comes across as obnoxious and pretentious to opposing clubs, and has resulted in plenty of dust ups over the Bautista years of this franchise. Rivalries have spawned with the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>NEW YORK – The Blue Jays are not well liked across Major League Baseball. The loud style of play that endears the team to its fans comes across as obnoxious and pretentious to opposing clubs, and has resulted in plenty of dust ups over the Bautista years of this franchise. Rivalries have spawned with the Baltimore Orioles, Tampa Bay Rays, Texas Rangers, and Kansas City Royals for these reasons, and although this has meant that games with these clubs are always must watch TV, it also has resulted in many dangerous situations.</p>
<p>That isn&#8217;t unique in baseball, of course. If you have been paying attention recently, you have heard about the current feud exploding between the aforementioned Orioles and the Boston Red Sox over a hard, but unintentional slide from Manny Machado, and the retaliation pitches that have stemmed from that play. On Tuesday night, after being targeted by Chris Sale, Machado went on an <a href="http://www.espn.com/video/clip?id=19298157&amp;sf75525280=1" target="_blank">expletive filled rant</a> to the media about how pitchers are allowed almost free reign when it comes to throwing at batters, and how he has lost all respect he had for the Boston Red Sox organization.</p>
<p>On Wednesday afternoon in the Blue Jays clubhouse, ESPN was playing Machado&#8217;s rant on repeat on the clubhouse televisions. As the players walked around between their workouts and pre-game routines, their eyes were glued to the monitors, digesting the play that had unfolded and Machado&#8217;s subsequent comments. Marco Estrada, the Blue Jays resident leader of the pitching staff, weighed in on the feud, taking a rather ambivalent, yet self-serving approach to the situation.</p>
<p>&#8220;<i>Let them do their thing. If they want to throw at each other and hurt each other, that’s on them.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>It&#8217;s a fun, but simple quote. However, when asked about his thoughts on the practice of throwing at batters in general, he had a lot more to say. Estrada maintained that as a pitcher, he has to look out for his teammates if a situation arises where they are being put in danger. &#8220;You got to protect your players. If it needs to happen, it needs to happen&#8221; he said while shrugging, as if to express his displeasure with the current way the game deals with these things. He added that he doesn&#8217;t &#8220;want to see anybody get hurt from it&#8221;, and was very clear about the following:</p>
<p><i>&#8220;If the other team is out throwing at us left and right&#8230;We can&#8217;t just let pitchers drill our guys, and let it be, or move on.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Jose Bautista was more interested in talking about the sentiment that this is how the game has been played for years, and how the players need to use common sense on these matters to avoid hurting anybody.</p>
<p><i>&#8220;I don&#8217;t think there is a right or a wrong way [to retaliate]. It&#8217;s just common sense. I mean putting people at injury risk&#8230; Nobody is out here, I believe and I would hope, to injure anybody. There is a certain protocol on how the game has been played for a long time and most people want that to be respected. But there should be ways to do it without putting people in harms way.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Estrada made sure to differentiate between throwing at a player&#8217;s backside and head hunting, the latter of which he said &#8220;should never be done&#8221;.</p>
<blockquote><p>&#8220;There is a certain protocol on how the game has been played for a long time and most people want that to be respected. But there should be ways to do it without putting people in harms way.&#8221;</p></blockquote>
<p><i>&#8220;If you can&#8217;t keep the ball in the safe zone, don&#8217;t try to do it. It&#8217;s dangerous. You can end somebody&#8217;s career trying to do something like that.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Steve Pearce also weighed in, saying that &#8220;sometimes it gets taken a little too far,&#8221; but generally players &#8220;want to stick up for [their] teammates&#8221;. Pearce has an especially interesting perspective on all of this because the Blue Jays are now his fourth AL East team, and changing clubs has allowed him to see both sides of certain rivalries. He said that these rivalries tend &#8220;to stay between the lines&#8221;, and there are no hard feelings afterwards. Pearce added that although he has been on many teams, the general view point among players about these issues is &#8220;basically the same&#8221; everywhere. You may think that the journeyman would have no part in old rivalries, but Pearce explained that it doesn&#8217;t play out like that:</p>
<p><i>&#8220;When you go from team to team, sometimes you inherit somebody else&#8217;s beef. They&#8217;re your team and you have to stick up for them.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>That would perhaps shed some light on Matt Bush bizarrely taking centre stage in the Blue Jays &#8211; Rangers fight last season even though he was not around for the Bat Flip.</p>
<p>Pearce has also changed his style of play throughout the years when running the bases to avoid injuring players or breaking the newly implemented rules for sliding into a base. While laughing, he said that he doesn&#8217;t even &#8220;want to slide into second&#8221; anymore, choosing instead &#8220;to peel off, and save all the crap that&#8217;s going on now.&#8221;</p>
<p>Of course, you may have realized that this entire conversation stemmed from Manny Machado decrying being thrown at, something his team has done often against the Blue Jays, and specifically towards Jose Bautista. He didn&#8217;t want to get into that, or anything to do with the Red Sox and Orioles on Wednesday. Bautista shook his head from side to side while making a devilish smile when asked about the hypocrisy behind Machado&#8217;s statement, saying &#8220;I don&#8217;t want to be out of line, and comment on something that I shouldn&#8217;t be commenting on.&#8221;</p>
<p>So what does Estrada think about this all? Does he wish to see MLB do something to change the way the game has been played?</p>
<p><i>&#8220;I don&#8217;t know. F*ck, if it happens, it happens. It&#8217;s been part of the game. It&#8217;s not going to change.&#8221;</i></p>
<p>Basically, who knows?</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things To Watch For In The Blue Jays Series Against The Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/13/3-things-to-watch-for-in-the-blue-jays-series-against-the-orioles/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 13 Apr 2017 15:17:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10204</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Written by Dave Church, Sean Addis, and Mike Passador 1. Baltimore&#8217;s Brilliant Bullpen Given the Jays&#8217; early offensive struggles, they could use a few easy marks on the opposite side. While a rickety Orioles rotation may seem like just such a group, the bullpen has been a much tougher task for the Jays to conquer of late, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Dave Church, Sean Addis, and Mike Passador<br />
</em></p>
<h3><strong>1. Baltimore&#8217;s Brilliant Bullpen</strong></h3>
<p>Given the Jays&#8217; early offensive struggles, they could use a few easy marks on the opposite side. While a rickety Orioles rotation may seem like just such a group, the bullpen has been a much tougher task for the Jays to conquer of late, save for an unforgettable moment in the wildcard game (which required deposed starter Ubaldo Jimenez to provide the fireworks). The Jays haven&#8217;t gotten a regular season run off the Baltimore relief corps in the last five meetings between the teams, a span of 15.1 innings.</p>
<p>Even if the Jays can get to the starters- an uncertain ask, given their offense so far this season- the Orioles shouldn&#8217;t hesitate to go their bullpen. Noted Jose Bautista rival Darren O&#8217;Day held the Jays scoreless in 2016, as did closer Zach Britton. Elite setup man Brad Brach struck out 18 Jays in 13.1 innings. Fireballer Mychal Givens struck out 13 in 11. For a lineup struggling to do much of anything right, this bullpen may not provide much relief for the Jays.</p>
<p>With four games against the Orioles, the Jays will want to get that bullpen involved quickly anyway, to potentially wear them down over the course of the series. Patient at-bats and drawing walks are things that the Jays continue to do well even as their offense scuffles, and it&#8217;s something that might help in this series. Runs would be better, but one thing at a time. If the Jays can grind out good at-bats, the hope is that the great players in their lineup (the ones not named Josh Donaldson, anyway) will have the results that their pedigrees would suggest.</p>
<p>And while the Jays didn&#8217;t score any runs off Britton in the first series, they did get runners on base in several innings against him. A little luck might have broken that scoreless streak a little sooner.</p>
<h3><strong>2. Chris Davis Loves the Rogers Centre</strong></h3>
<p>Baltimore Orioles first baseman Chris Davis has had an excellent start to the 2017 season. Over the first seven games he has an impressive 1.141 OPS. The timing couldn&#8217;t be worse for the Blue Jays because Chris Davis loves hitting at the Rogers Centre, but a hot-hitting Davis REALLY loves hitting at the Rogers Centre; he has a stat line of .317/.411/.683, with 17 home runs in 214 at bats in Toronto. This does not bode well for a pitching staff trying to keep the opposing offence off the board, while allowing their struggling offence time to score some runs.</p>
<p>Davis has had success against this present group of Blue Jays pitchers (1.039 OPS) and the challenge facing Jays manager John Gibbons is he only has one left-handed option in the bullpen. With the injury to JP Howell, his only southpaw option is Aaron Loup. This is the same Aaron Loup who has historically struggled against the power hitting first baseman (5/12, with one home run). It will be interesting to see what pitchers John Gibbons chooses for late game match ups against Davis over the four game series.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Why has<img class=" size-medium wp-image-10215 alignleft" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/04/Screen-Shot-2017-04-13-at-1.15.44-AM-300x241.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-04-13 at 1.15.44 AM" width="300" height="241" /> Chris Davis performed well at the Rogers Centre? Many hitters have said they see the ball well in addition to how far the ball travels at the dome. Another factor is Davis&#8217; ability to hit to all fields with power. As you can see in his hitting spray chart his ability to drive the ball into both alleys makes him a perfect hitter for the Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>One positive for the Blue Jays is Davis is also prone to the strike out. Therefore, the key for this series is making sure to pitch to him strategically, get him to chase pitches out of the strike zone and most importantly stay away from his power.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>3. Josh Donaldson&#8217;s Burdensome Calf<br />
</strong></h3>
<p>Donaldson’s recovery time is important in the sense that it’s always bad to have your best player at less than 100 percent. While it’s nice that he’s healthy enough to DH, Donaldson not playing the field creates a ripple effect that hamstrings the team’s ability to make late-game maneuvers.</p>
<p>Firstly, the move forces Kendrys Morales to first base. That’s not too bad in itself, as Morales made a few nice plays on Wednesday and should be passable at the very least, but it’s certainly not ideal. He hasn’t topped 10 appearances at first since 2014 and hasn’t topped 30 since 2012. It’s not a long term concern right now, but that extra wear and tear can’t be great for someone who isn’t used to playing the position.</p>
<p>That also pushes Steve Pearce into left field full-time, which may have been the plan to start with, for better or worse. His career-high of 49 outfield appearances came in 2015 and barring injury (which is no casual statement with Pearce) he’ll rocket past that with ease. He played just 12 games in the outfield all of last season, so the team’s medical and high performance staff will have to handle Pearce with extra care.</p>
<p>Without getting into the quality of Donaldson’s direct replacements at third (and the potential benefits of pushing Justin Smoak to the bench), that leaves JD and Morales as players you’d rather not having running the bases late in the game, with precious few alternatives on the bench. The team turned to backup catcher Jarrod Saltalamachia as a pinch runner on Wednesday, leaving them perilously thin in terms of any ensuing substitutions. Losing the DH wouldn’t be the end of the world in a single game, but limiting John Gibbons’ options for an indeterminate amount of time isn’t the most helpful thing. And running up replacement-level batters (or worse) against the O&#8217;s bullpen will not be pretty.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>3 Things for Blue Jays Fans to Think About on Opening Day</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/03/3-things-to-think-about-on-opening-day/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Apr 2017 11:33:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[In a Tough AL East, Games Like These Still Matter If there is one thing baseball prognosticators can agree on this season, it&#8217;s that the AL East is pretty evenly matched. It may not be the best division in baseball, but one through five it the the most parity. Because of that, every interdivisional game will [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<h3><b>In a Tough AL East, Games Like These Still Matter</b></h3>
<p>If there is one thing baseball prognosticators can agree on this season, it&#8217;s that the AL East is pretty evenly matched. It may not be the best division in baseball, but one through five it the the most parity. Because of that, every interdivisional game will take on additional meaning. It is conceivable that any of the five teams, from the front running Boston Red Sox to the young and retooling New York Yankees, can take this division. Last season, the Blue Jays went 40-36 (.526) against AL East opponents, managing winning records against all clubs aside from the Yankees. This season, they&#8217;ll need more of the same, if not better, if they want to find their way back to the playoffs for the third straight season.</p>
<p>To do so, they&#8217;ll need to start by winning games against Kevin Gausman and Dylan Bundy of the Baltimore Orioles. They didn&#8217;t have any trouble doing that against Gausman in 2016, scoring 14 runs in 15 1/3 innings against the righty, but only faced Bundy in three relief appearances for a total of three and two thirds total innings. However, in a longer stint, Bundy is the type of pitcher who can be exposed against the Blue Jays. He&#8217;s basically a three pitch pitcher as a starter, relying primarily on his four-seam fastball, change up, and curve. Although the fastball has good velocity on it, averaging 94.80 MPH as a starter last season, it also has what is described as &#8220;rising&#8221; action because of the spin on it. This may sound familiar, because it is what makes Marco Estrada so dominant, as he generates a ton of pop ups due to confusing the swing plane of the opposing batters. Fortunately for the Blue Jays, Bundy is no Estrada, and if he makes mistakes with the pitch, they could be hit very far in the batter friendly Camden Yards.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays will have over 70 games against the AL East in 2017. Winning the first two won&#8217;t necesarrily be a sign of things to come, but it will sure help down the road. Some good hitting can go a long way in helping them take these games.</p>
<h3>We Don&#8217;t <em>Need</em> to Hate the Orioles</h3>
<p>I know this is not going to be a popular opinion. There are a lot of reasons to dislike them. Darren O’Day started a years-long war with Jose Bautista when he beaned him for no good reason. Orioles starter Mike Wright had the audacity to throw shade at former Jays slugger Edwin Encarnacion. Most recently, O’s general manager Dan Duquette made remarks about Jose Bautista’s work ethic that would be described as uninformed at best, and loaded with racial biases at worst. Jose Bautista doesn’t work hard? You know the guy is so committed to fitness that he hasn’t eaten carbs since 2007, right?</p>
<p>The Orioles offences against the Jays and their players are legitimately gripe-worthy, but we may have more in common with our division rivals than we care to admit.</p>
<p>Both the Jays and Orioles win in unorthodox ways, and at least in ways that projection systems like PECOTA don’t seem to understand yet. Whether it’s the Jays FIP-busting starting pitchers or whatever it is that the Orioles seem to be good at, both teams possess skills that don’t seem to be quantified by advanced projection systems.</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Some of the detest for the Orioles comes from seeing pitchers like Darren O’Day intentionally throw at Jays players. Unfortunately, the Jays are just as guilty as Baltimore when it comes to this all-too-common on-field behavior. During the thick of the O’Day/Bautista drama, Marcus Stroman threw at Manny Machado. And plenty of other Blue Jay pitchers have gotten involved in the retaliatory bean ball culture that is still permitted in the major leagues over the last couple of years as well.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">There is no excusing Dan Duquette’s comments about Jose Bautista. We need hold him to a higher standard. Regrettably, insensitive comments of many stripes are far too common in major league baseball. John Gibbons made some of his own last year when he suggested the Jays come out in dresses if they couldn’t slide hard into second base. Sexist remarks and coded racialized language are not the same things; nor should they be swept under the rug or ignored. But hopefully, if we think that John Gibbons had a momentary lapse in judgment and said some things he regrets and don’t represent him at his best, we can think the same about Dan Duquette.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Lastly, the Orioles have Adam Jones. And for every backwards thing that people in professional sports say, Adam Jones can say something inclusive and insightful that shows us how athletes can be important agents for activism and social change. Just like when Josh Donaldson speaks out against domestic violence.  </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In any case, the O’s aren’t going anywhere. We’re going to see them 18 times a season. I suggest we make the best of a bad situation and try to see our similarities and not our differences.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">If you want to be practical about it, the Jays already have rivalries with the Rangers, Red Sox, Yankees, Twins and Royals. Takes too much energy to hate everyone.</span></p>
<h3><b>Baseball is Back!</b></h3>
<p>Today is a good day.</p>
<p>Baseball is back, and along with it comes all of its perks.  The days are getting longer, the weather is… well, I guess some things take longer to develop.  The greatest gift given on Opening Day, however, is a clean slate for all 30 teams.  What’s in the past is over with, and there is a sense of optimism about what could happen this year for each and every club.</p>
<p>This optimism runs from the players, to the coaching staff, to the front office, and of course, to the fans.  It is part of human nature to hope, and for many fan bases, this sense of hope runs highest on Opening Day.  The Blue Jays think that they can win the World Series this season. Even though the odds are stacked against them, fans can find hope in the knowledge that every year, one team pulls through against these unfavourable odds to win the final game of the season.</p>
<p>Now, even though this is fun to fantasize about, the tight division races and playoffs are oh so far away.  What we have now is April: the type of baseball that requires the tracking of results, but brings along with it the recognition that they might not matter in the long run.  In the grand scheme of things, the opening series against the Orioles means very little.  There are 160 games that will occur after this opening series &#8211; games which will (obviously) have much more bearing on the Blue Jays season than the first two.</p>
<p>Where does that leave this series then?  Well, it just might be the most enjoyable one of the season.  The games start to matter now, and if you think about it, maybe it means we shouldn’t care about the results of this series at all.  Maybe this opening series shouldn’t be analyzed even in the slightest &#8211; not if Josh Donaldson strikes out in every at bat, not if Roberto Osuna comes out throwing 93, and not even if Justin Smoak starts hot and smacks 3 dingers today.</p>
<p>Instead, this short two-game opening series should be reason for us to celebrate.  After 166 cold, dark, and dreary days, the Blue Jays are playing meaningful baseball again.  Jose Bautista is back, perhaps the greatest position player in team history leg kicking his way to even more greatness in 2017.  Last year’s AL-best rotation returns, with the potential to repeat again this season.  John Gibbons will be back, his relaxed dugout poses and happy-go-lucky interviews along with his fiery ejections staying with the Jays for the foreseeable future. Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin remain Blue Jays, ready to lead this team through the tortuous grind that is a major league season.</p>
<p>So don’t get too caught up in what happens on the field over this series, or even the next three.  More important than April results is the fact that, for every major league team, Opening Day marks the start of a journey.  A journey that, for one team, will end in completely bewildering, chaotic, and joyous celebration that is winning the World Series.  And when that celebration ends, what remains is a battle-tested community of players, coaches, and fans who can share their memories of that journey, the type of journey that makes the end destination so highly coveted.</p>
<p>Today, Toronto goes <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1TD_pSeNelU">on the road again</a>.  We don’t know where it will end, but we know we’ll be along for the ride.  Cheers to that.</p>
<p><em>Article by Gideon Turk, Nick Dika, and Andrew Munn.<br />
</em><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Artificial Turf Wars Ep. 48: A Little Bird-Calling</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/15/artificial-turf-wars-ep-48-a-little-bird-calling/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Mar 2017 10:00:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Artifical Turf Wars]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[We have launched a Patreon account! If you like what we do, and are able to help us out, please click the button below to become an Artificial Turf Wars Patron. Every little bit goes a long way. Episode 48 Jake English of Birds Eye View stops by to preview the Baltimore Orioles are part [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We have launched a Patreon account! If you like what we do, and are able to help us out, please click the button below to become an Artificial Turf Wars Patron. Every little bit goes a long way.</p>
<p><a href="https://www.patreon.com/turfpod"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-9098" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/02/patreon_logo-300x94.png" alt="patreon_logo" width="252" height="79" /></a><br />
<strong><br />
Episode 48</strong></p>
<p>Jake English of Birds Eye View stops by to preview the Baltimore Orioles are part of the 2017 AL East preview series. He discusses the continual lack of strength/depth in the rotation, Chris Tillman&#8217;s injury, the slugging offense, and some fancy roster maneuvering by Dan Duquette. Greg and Josh also discuss the recent returns to &#8220;action&#8221; for Josh Donaldson and Devon Travis, Kendrys Morales&#8217; continued spring success, Canada&#8217;s abysmal showing in the World Baseball classic, Jose Bautista and Marcus Stroman&#8217;s STRONG showings, and some approach changes for Kevin Pillar and Justin Smoak. They also give Do-Overs to the Blue Jays social media team and Peter Gammons.</p>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/sung_minkim/status/841675988291354626" target="_blank">Here&#8217;s the massive home run</a> from Shohei Otani that Josh mentions on the podcast. </p>
<p><strong>Podcast</strong>: <a class="powerpress_link_pinw" title="Play in New Window" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/889/show_9889479_2017_03_15_03_36_35.mp3" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Play in new window</a> | <a class="powerpress_link_d" title="Download" href="http://d1at8ppinvdju8.cloudfront.net/9/889/show_9889479_2017_03_15_03_36_35.mp3" rel="nofollow">Download</a></p>
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<p>Follow the guys on twitter: <a title="@coolhead2010" href="https://twitter.com/coolhead2010" target="_blank">@coolhead2010</a> and <a title="@JoshuaHowsam" href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam" target="_blank">@JoshuaHowsam</a>.</p>
<p>Intro music is Slow Burn (<a href="http://freemusicarchive.org/music/Kevin_MacLeod/" rel="cc:attributionURL">Kevin MacLeod</a>) under <a href="http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/" rel="license">CC BY 3.0</a>.</p>
<div><strong>Podcast Email</strong>-<a href="mailto:artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com" target="_blank">artificialturfwars@baseballprospectus.com</a> Please drop us a line if there is a guest you&#8217;d particularly like us to interview, to submit a question to <strong>Stump the Josh</strong>, or to simply give us feedback on the podcast. We&#8217;d love to hear from you!</div>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Orioles 2; A Perfect Ending to A Perfect Game</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/04/recap-blue-jays-5-orioles-2-a-perfect-ending-to-a-perfect-game/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Oct 2016 03:50:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[There’s nothing quite like the excitement of a do-or-die baseball game. The anticipation started to build as soon as the Blue Jays clinched the AL Wild Card spot, and hit a fever pitch sometime around 5:30 pm ET on Tuesday afternoon. Despite the game not starting for another two and a half hours, and the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There’s nothing quite like the excitement of a do-or-die baseball game.</p>
<p>The anticipation started to build as soon as the Blue Jays clinched the AL Wild Card spot, and hit a fever pitch sometime around 5:30 pm ET on Tuesday afternoon. Despite the game not starting for another two and a half hours, and the gates not opening for another 30 minutes, fans filled the areas around the stadium, anxious for their chance to be part of history.</p>
<p>The energy was palpable, but it was also nervous energy. These were the Baltimore Orioles.</p>
<p>Once upon a time, the Blue Jays would have counted the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers, or even the lowly Rays among their greatest foes. No longer. Over the last few seasons, a legitimate hatred has grown between these two AL East powers. Whether it’s Marcus Stroman vs. Caleb Joseph, Manny Machado and his issues with Josh Donaldson, or Jose Bautista and his seemingly endless problems with Buck Showalter, Darren O’Day, and the entire Orioles roster; the bad blood between these two has grown to a boil.</p>
<p>As such, the prospect of losing to such a foe resonated with each of the 49,933 fans in attendance (and the one clown who deigned to throw a beer on the field and who should be banned for life from attending Major League Baseball games).</p>
<p>From the first pitch, the crowd was into it, trying to will the team to victory. The blue towels were waving, and the people were loud. When Marcus Stroman went through the first two innings without allowing a baserunner, hopes began to rise. They rose higher still when Jose Bautista added to his Blue Jays lore, launching a solo home run to left field leading off the bottom of the second inning. By the time Kevin Pillar made yet another diving catch to save a run in the fourth, the fans were in a frenzy.</p>
<p>It wasn’t made to last.</p>
<p>One pitch later, Mark Trumbo deposited a two-run homer into the left field corner, and the Orioles were ahead.</p>
<p>But when the Jays went scoreless in the bottom of the fourth, a funny thing happened. Given recent events, fans could be forgiven for losing faith; only Jose Bautista had managed to reach base, and it was beginning to look like yet another futile September offensive performance. But the fans <em>didn’t</em> give up. They got even louder.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays responded to the hometown faithful when Michael Saunders and Kevin Pillar hit back-to-back doubles (Saunders had to hold to see if Bourn would catch it), and then Ezequiel Carrera flared a one run single to centre field. They were denied more when Travis hit into an inning-ending double play, but the Jays had answered. They had done what had eluded them so often this season, and had not let a game get away from them.</p>
<p>After six very solid innings, it became a battle of the bullpens. The numbers suggest that this should have favoured the Orioles, but anything can happen in one game of baseball. The beleaguered Jays setup corps rose to the challenge, and both teams continued to put up zeroes, heading into the bottom of the 9th inning.</p>
<p>Josh Donaldson led off with a double, and then Edwin Encarnacion was intentionally walked to get to Bautista. It felt like this was their time; the Orioles were not going to ace closer Zach Britton, and Last season&#8217;s postseason hero was at the plate. Sadly, it was for naught. Bautista struck out, and then Darren O’Day got Russell Martin to ground into the Jays’ third double play of the game.</p>
<p>With the inning squndered, the game moved into the 10th. Then the 11th. Francisco Liriano shut down the Orioles in the top of the inning&#8230;and then it happened.</p>
<p>There are certain moments in baseball that resonate with you as they’re occurring. The seventh inning of Game 5 and the Bat Flip. Dave Steib’s numerous no-hit bids. Halladay vs. Burnett in the latter’s return to Toronto. Joe Carter’s walkoff against the Phillies.</p>
<p>This was one of those moments.</p>
<p>After back-to-back singles by Devon Travis and Josh Donaldson off a relieving Ubaldo Jimenez (with Britton still conspicuously absent), the Blue Jays were left with runners on the corners and one out for Edwin Encarnacion.</p>
<p>The star slugger then guaranteed that he would don a Jays jersey for at least a few more games, as he launched a ball into the night and rounded the bases to a chorus of fans chanting “EDDIE! EDDIE! EDDIE!”</p>
<p>It was a surreal end to an absolutely immaculate game, and one worthy of the spotlight under which it was placed.</p>
<p>It did not come without its cost, as Roberto Osuna left the game with an injury in the 10th inning and could miss some action (though no update has been provided).</p>
<p>But that is tomorrow’s problem. For today, the Blue Jays are winners, and Edwin Encarnacion is a hero.</p>
<p>Bring on the Rangers.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Orioles 4, Blue Jays 0; Not With a Bang But a Whimper</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/29/recap-orioles-4-blue-jays-0-not-with-a-bang-but-a-whimper/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Sep 2016 01:50:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7098</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays entered the pivotal rubber match against Baltimore with a chance to all but lock up a wild card spot. The final home game of the season was also the potential last home appearance for a number of important and beloved Blue Jays. Rather than send the crowd home happy, the Jays frittered [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays entered the pivotal rubber match against Baltimore with a chance to all but lock up a wild card spot. The final home game of the season was also the potential last home appearance for a number of important and beloved Blue Jays. Rather than send the crowd home happy, the Jays frittered away another opportunity and have left their fate to twist in the Massachusetts wind. With a pitiful three hits on the night, they were outplayed by the Orioles in a listless performance under the dome that leaves the teams tied in the standings.</p>
<p>Marcus Stroman was good tonight and couldn&#8217;t get help from his teammates or the umpiring crew. Stroman, deserving of a far better fate, has now endured 20 consecutive innings with no run support. He went seven innings plus two batters, giving up nine hits, two walks and four runs while striking out three. Aaron Loup and Ryan Tepera recorded the final six outs of the night without issue. It wasn&#8217;t a perfect outing from Toronto&#8217;s pitchers, but it might&#8217;ve been enough had the offense bothered to check in.</p>
<p>The Orioles struck in the third when J.J. Hardy came around to score following a punch to left that got past a diving Michael Saunders for a leadoff double. He advanced to third on a ground ball and scored on a sac fly from Manny Machado. They added on another in the fourth when two singles and a Michael Bourn fielder&#8217;s choice (thanks to a curious decision and a poor throw from Josh Donaldson) pushed the lead to two. Hyun-Soo Kim, last night&#8217;s hero, drove in Baltimore&#8217;s third run of the night with a two-out single following a leadoff walk and a stolen base from Bourn in the seventh. Mark Trumbo doubled and Matt Weiters singled in the eighth to plate Baltimore&#8217;s fourth and final run of the evening.</p>
<p>Meanwhile in the Legion of Blue, the Jays were absolutely stifled by Ubaldo Jimenez and his 5.71 ERA. Ezequiel Carerra knocked a leadoff single and the Jays wouldn&#8217;t record another hit until Jimenez departed the game. They struggled with Angel Hernandez&#8217;s transient strike zone all evening but have only themselves to blame for another poor offensive showing. While the defense can shoulder some blame for the game&#8217;s first two runs, the Jays and their alleged offensive attack make a small deficit feel like a gulf worthy of national landmark status. Some swing at junk. Some refuse to swing at pitches that they should know will be called strikes. Some do both. Either way, one hit in 6.2 innings against <em>Ubaldo Jimenez</em> is absolutely inexcusable for a team with postseason aspirations.</p>
<p>Toronto will now rely on the Yankees, Braves and A&#8217;s to handle the Orioles, Tigers and Mariners respectively, while the Jays battle Boston.</p>
<p>A September funk has left the season teetering on the precipice of disaster. The defense is occasionally leaky, the bullpen is prone to blowups and the offense is putting on a vanishing act that would make Houdini blush. They have three games left to figure it out, lest this new generation of Blue Jays fans discover the same disappointment that the old one knows so well.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>For the second night in a row, the top play of the game came off the bat of Hyun-Soo Kim. His RBI single with two outs in the seventh pushed the lead to three and was worth .077 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>With runners on the corners and one out in the top of the 1st, Jose Bautista stepped to the plate and was dispatched on three pitches. The strikeout earned a -0.65 WPA.</p>
<h3>HDMIP-&gt; Height Doesn&#8217;t Measure Innings Pitched</h3>
<p>Marcus Stroman&#8217;s final start of the season was a good one. He kept the Orioles down and could&#8217;ve escaped trouble with some help from his defenders and was again saddled with a hard luck loss. While the performance was strong in its own right, Stroman managed to crack 200 innings pitched on the season tonight. It&#8217;s the first time he&#8217;s passed that threshold in his career and he becomes <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/781643501620592640" target="_blank">the first pitcher under 5&#8217;8 to hit the mark </a>since Fred Norman in 1977 and just the <a href="https://twitter.com/ArdenZwelling/status/781644593536335872" target="_blank">27th such pitcher since 1901</a>.</p>
<p>Stroman was tabbed as the team&#8217;s ace headed into the season after his triumphant return from a torn ACL last season. While it&#8217;s fair to say that Stroman actually settled in as the team&#8217;s fourth-best starter, he fought through some mid-season struggles and turned in a fabulous September. He&#8217;d previously allowed no more than three earned runs in any start this month and did the same in four of his five August starts. There were ups and downs but Stroman settled down nicely to end the regular season.</p>
<h3>LOB City</h3>
<p>Beyond the lack of hits lies the disturbing trend of failing to cash in on any fleeting opportunities the team receives. <a title="Down to The Wire: Orioles Series Preview" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/27/down-to-the-wire-orioles-series-preview/" target="_blank">As we noted in our preview</a>, Jimenez tends to improve as the game wears on so it was imperative that the Jays deliver a timely hit or two when the time arose.</p>
<p>They went 0-5 with runners in scoring position and left four men on base. The game opened with a single and a walk and resulted in zero runs. A leadoff walk in the third was sacrificed to second base and then squandered with a pair of groundouts. A leadoff single in the eighth was promptly followed by a three pitch strikeout and a double play. A loud crowd was silenced with each successive at bat.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>With their final regular season game at Rogers Center now complete, the Blue Jays are headed to Fenway Park where they&#8217;ll wrap up their season against the AL East champion Red Sox. The Blue Jays will be battling Boston&#8217;s top starters as well as some inclement weather as they look to clinch a spot in the wild card game over the weekend. Marco Estrada (9-9, 3.53 ERA) takes on Rick Porcello (22-4, 3.11 ERA) in tomorrow night&#8217;s opener with first pitch set for 7:10 ET.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Orioles 3, Blue Jays 2; Liriano Dazzles But The Bullpen Blows It</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/28/recap-orioles-3-blue-jays-2-liriano-dazzles-but-the-bullpen-blows-it/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 29 Sep 2016 02:42:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Game Recap]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7072</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays were back in action on Wednesday looking to take the series from the rival Orioles and looked to be in good shape until the game&#8217;s final two innings. There were no late game heroics for the Jays, who dropped the second game of the series after failing to cash in on offensive [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays were back in action on Wednesday looking to take the series from the rival Orioles and looked to be in good shape until the game&#8217;s final two innings. There were no late game heroics for the Jays, who dropped the second game of the series after failing to cash in on offensive opportunities and left Roberto Osuna with a razor thin margin that he couldn&#8217;t handle.</p>
<p>Ezeqiuel Carrera did some nice work out of the leadoff spot tonight, reaching base each of his first three trips to the plate. He led off the game reaching first thanks to a Chris Davis error and advanced to third on an error by pitcher Chris Tillman. Edwin Encarnacion&#8217;s sacrifice fly brought Carerra home to give the Jays a 1-0 lead. Kevin Pillar notched a sac fly of his own in the 2nd, scoring Troy Tulowitzki from third after he doubled and was advanced by a Michael Saunders single. That pushed the lead to 2-0, where the score would remain until the 8th.</p>
<p>The Jays had a few chances to score but played their way out of runs, notably when Jose Bautista was doubled off second base after a nice grab in left and when Melvin Upton Jr. struck out with the bases loaded to end the 8th. For their part, the Orioles also weaved their way in and out of run-scoring opportunities but were shut down each time by Francisco Liriano.</p>
<p>Liriano was wonderful tonight, tossing 6.2 innings of shutout ball while racking up 10 strikeouts. In <a title="Down to The Wire: Orioles Series Preview" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/27/down-to-the-wire-orioles-series-preview/" target="_blank">our series preview we discussed Liriano&#8217;s swing-and-miss potential</a> and that nasty stuff allowed him to work out of a few tense moments. Each of the six hits he surrendered were singles and he only issued one free pass on the night. Liriano has now gone two starts without allowing a run and has definitely vaulted himself into the playoff rotation conversation.</p>
<p>While he was excellent throughout the game, two singles in the top of the 7th were enough to bring John Gibbons out of the dugout. With his typical 7th inning options unavailable, Gibbons called on Brett Cecil to take on right handers Nolan Reimold and Adam Jones. Cecil struck out Reimold (despite three pitches right down the middle) and retired Jones to strand the runners and preserve a two run lead. Cecil started the 8th and got Davis (now 3-24 against Cecil) to strike out before ceding way to Jason Grilli, who gave up a long homer to Mark Trumbo and a double to Pedro Alvarez before getting Matt Weiters to fly out to escape the jam.</p>
<p>Roberto Osuna came in to work the 9th and gave up a single and a home run to Hyun Soo Kim on the 9th pitch of the at bat to put the Orioles in front 3-2. Zach Britton came on and locked things down without any trouble to secure the win for Baltimore. The Jays completely blew their chance to shovel some dirt on Baltimore&#8217;s postseason hopes and have let another team stay nipping at their heels.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The top play of the game is of course Hyun Soo Kim&#8217;s home run in the top of the 9th. The dinger not only won the game but may have saved Baltimore&#8217;s season considering how tight the wild card race is. His go-ahead shot was worth a whopping .597 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Tonight&#8217;s bottom play came in the top of the 5th when Liriano struck out Chris Davis to end the inning and strand the bases loaded. Davis&#8217; K was worth -.097 WPA.</p>
<h3>Donaldson Dinged Up?</h3>
<p>Josh Donaldson pulled up with a grimace after hustling his way to first base on a potential double play ball in the bottom of the 5th. He looked to be running a little gingerly on the next ball in play but managed to stay in the game. The team has to be hoping he avoided any re-aggravation of the hip problem that&#8217;s dogged him recently. It wouldn&#8217;t be all that surprising to see Darwin Barney at the hot corner tomorrow but we&#8217;ll have to wait and see how the reigning MVP feels overnight.</p>
<h3>Bricolage Bullpen</h3>
<p>With Joaquin Benoit unavailable, much has been made over how the Blue Jays will get the ball to Roberto Osuna in the 9th. John Gibbons has spoken about stretching his starters a little bit further and Liriano certainly held up his end of the bargain. With the tying runs on base and new 7th inning guy Joe Biagini unavailable, we saw a little bit of Brett Cecil circa 2015. Cecil was tasked with facing two right handers in front of Chris Davis and delivered tonight.</p>
<p>Jason Grilli, on the other hand, continued to struggle. He conceded a second deck dinger to Mark Trumbo and a double to Pedro Alvarez and may be losing his grip on the 8th inning. If Grilli continues to falter it&#8217;ll make the late innings even more of a minefield for the Jays (Ryan Tepera warmed up in the 8th tonight) so keep an eye on how they tackle outs 18-24 going forward. With three straight blown saves, the solution in the bullpen can&#8217;t come soon enough.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>The Jays wrap up their regular season home slate tomorrow night in the series finale. Marcus Stroman (9-9, 4.34 ERA) will take on Ubaldo Jimenez (7-12, 5.71 ERA) with first pitch set for 7:07 PM ET. A win would go a long way to securing a playoff spot, lest they tempt fate and wait to get the job done over a rainy weekend in Fenway.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Orioles 1; Sanchez and Donaldson Is All a Team Needs</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/27/recap-blue-jays-5-orioles-1-sanchez-and-donaldson-is-all-a-team-needs/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Sep 2016 02:09:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7038</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays faced the Baltimore Orioles in the first game of a pivotal series coming down the stretch of the wild card race on Tuesday night. Entering the game, the Jays held a slim one game lead over Baltimore. The team could not have started any better than they did. Impromptu lead-off hitter Ezequiel [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays faced the Baltimore Orioles in the first game of a pivotal series coming down the stretch of the wild card race on Tuesday night. Entering the game, the Jays held a slim one game lead over Baltimore. The team could not have started any better than they did. Impromptu lead-off hitter Ezequiel Carrera drew a walk against Orioles&#8217; starter Kevin Gausman, perfectly setting the table for Donaldson. Josh got a pitch to his liking  in a hitters count and drove the ball over the left field wall. Two batters into the game for the Jays and they had already put up more runs than Baltimore would be able to plate for the entire game.</p>
<p>Aaron Sanchez was instrumental again in limiting the opposition to only one run. His location was tremendous tonight and he was able to mix in quality changeups and curveballs to keep the Baltimore hitters from sitting on his sinker. Tonight, he had his swing-and-miss stuff, causing 10 Orioles to strikeout over six innings of work. Considering the Red Sox look like they have the division all but clinched, Sanchez will be set to pitch the wild card game if the Jays make it.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>It&#8217;s no surprise that the top play of the game goes to Josh Donaldson. It happened early on, the second at-bat the Jays had in the game. Carrera worked a walk against Baltimore starter Kevin Gausman and the reigning MVP hit his 37th dinger of the season. Gausman missed with the first two pitches of the at-bat; Donaldson, somewhat curiously, let a 2-0 fastball right down the pipe go past him. When the count was 2-1, however, he got the exact same fastball and crushed it to left centre. Even though the homer came in the first inning, this increased the Jays&#8217; chance to win by 0.153 WPA.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>There is a tie between Machado and Alvarez for the worst play of the game. So naturally, Manny Machado had the worst play of the game during today&#8217;s game. With men on first and second with only one out, Machado cranked a liner to the right of Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo made an incredible dive and came away with the ball in his glove. Machado only decreased the Orioles chance of winning by 0.050 WPA; or rather Tulo increased the Jays&#8217; chance to win by that amount with this slick play.</p>
<h3>Aaron Sanchez is Overpowering</h3>
<p>Once again, Aaron Sanchez displayed his full arsenal of talent against an offensively oriented Baltimore Orioles club. He limited them to one run during his six innings and showcased an impressive ability to locate his sinking fastball. I have never seen a pitcher with such movement on their fastball be able to locate it with the precision that Sanchez does. He can locate his pitch down and away to a right handed hitter. Think about that. What is a batter supposed to do when a pitch starts belt high and nearly half a foot off the outside of the plate and then it darts its way to the outside edge? Not to mention that the pitch is 96 mph. Needless to say, I am excited to watch Sanchez pitch in the wild card game&#8230; I mean, he has to be the starter right?</p>
<h3>Trend to Watch</h3>
<p>The most alarming concern right now for the Jays is the health of Devon Travis. He re-injured his shoulder in last night&#8217;s game (presumably in the brawl with the Yankees). I don&#8217;t mind Barney taking his place but I would prefer a player that can drive the ball opposed to one who lays down sac bunts. Although, I will eat my words tonight, since Barney dropped a sac bunt that moved Pillar up to second and then he was cashed on a single by Carrera.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Two more games against the Orioles in Rogers Centre. The Jays have a chance to close out Baltimore from the first wild card spot. Going to be a fun week!</p>
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