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	<title>Toronto &#187; Attendance</title>
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		<title>A Full Rebuild is Too Risky for Toronto</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/03/a-full-rebuild-is-too-risky-for-toronto/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/03/a-full-rebuild-is-too-risky-for-toronto/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 03 Aug 2017 13:43:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Attendance]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[Rebuild]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12783</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2017 MLB non-waiver trade deadline came and went Monday and to the dismay of some, the Blue Jays are still pretty much still in tact. General Manager Ross Atkins and co. made two shrewd moves, dealing Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith and their expiring contracts in separate deals for prospects (which you can read [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2017 MLB non-waiver trade deadline came and went Monday and to the dismay of some, the Blue Jays are still pretty much still in tact. General Manager Ross Atkins and co. made two shrewd moves, dealing Francisco Liriano and Joe Smith and their expiring contracts in separate deals for prospects (which you can read about <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/francisco-liriano-astros/" target="_blank">here</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/31/joe-smith-trade/" target="_blank">here</a>).</p>
<p>Obviously, the 2017 Blue Jays are still an old, underperforming ball club who appear to be well out of both the American League East and Wild Card races. So over the past few weeks I’ve been listening to coworkers and talk radio and scrolling through my Twitter timeline for Blue Jays takes and have seen a number of them suggesting that the go on a full rebuild. However, I’m not sure that the whole “tear it down and start from scratch” approach would work for this team, especially not in a big market like Toronto.</p>
<p>For those lucky (or new) enough to be unfamiliar with the term tanking, it’s punting a few seasons for high draft picks and usually, trading any usable piece from your team for young players to help out in the future. The problem is that it’s painful. If you thought the Toronto Blue Jays and their incompetence was bad now, wait until players you don’t know can’t score against the Joe Random’s of the league! For example, look at the Houston Astros at the beginning of the decade. The Astros shipped out Roy Oswalt, Lance Berkman, Matt Lindstrom, Jeff Keppinger, Hunter Pence, and Michael Bourn, beginning the worst three-year run a team could possibly have. Between the 2011 and 2013 seasons, the Astros were a .333 team. Just for reference, that’s lower than Ted Williams’ career batting average of .344. They went from averaging just under 35 thousand fans during their 86-win season to around 25 thousand in 2011, to about 20 thousand in 2013.</p>
<p>Now, there are some arguments that the Blue Jays should just “give up” until 2023 or so, and again, the Astros are a great example! They’re one of the best teams in the league right now. They used those high picks to take George Springer 11<sup>th</sup> in 2011, Carlos Correa 1<sup>st</sup> in 2012, Mark Appel, first overall in 2013 who was used to acquire closer Ken Giles from Philadelphia, and after failing to sign 2014’s first overall pick Brady Aiken, took Alex Bregman 2<sup>nd</sup> overall in 2015. So it looked like the risk and the embarrassing level of baseball over those three years paid off.</p>
<p>After all, top 10 picks usually pan out the way they should, right? Well&#8230;maybe not.</p>
<p>Here are all the players drafted in the top-ten from 2000-2010 that failed to play in 100 Major League games (excluding players that were unsigned by the team that drafted them).</p>
<p><strong>2000</strong></p>
<p>2<sup>nd</sup> overall (Twins): Adam Johnson, RHP – 9 MLB games, 26.1 IP<br />
4<sup>th</sup> overall (Royals): Mike Stodolka, LHP – 0 MLB games<br />
5<sup>th</sup> overall (Expos): Justin Wayne, RHP – 26 MLB games, 61.2 IP<br />
8<sup>th</sup> overall (Tigers): Matt Wheatland, RHP – 0 MLB games<br />
9<sup>th</sup> overall (Padres): Mark Phillips, LHP – 0 MLB games<br />
10<sup>th</sup> overall (Angels): Joe Torres, LHP – 0 MLB games</p>
<p><strong>2001</strong></p>
<p>3<sup>rd</sup> overall (Devil Rays): Dewon Brazelton, RHP – 63 MLB games, 271 IP<br />
6<sup>th</sup> overall (Expos): Josh Karp, RHP – 0 MLB games<br />
7<sup>th</sup> overall (Orioles): Chris Smith, LHP – 0 MLB games<br />
8<sup>th</sup> overall (Pirates) John Van Benschoten, RHP – 26 MLB games, 90 IP<br />
9<sup>th</sup> overall (Royals): Colt Griffin, RHP – 0 MLB games</p>
<p><strong>2002</strong><br />
1<sup>st</sup> overall (Pirates): Bryan Bullington, RHP – 26 MLB games, 81.2 IP<br />
3<sup>rd</sup> overall (Reds): Chris Gruler, RHP – 0 MLB games<br />
4<sup>th</sup> overall (Orioles): Adam Loewen, LHP/OF – 77 MLB games, 189.1 IP<br />
5<sup>th</sup> overall (Expos): Clint Everts, RHP – 0 MLB games<br />
10<sup>th</sup> (Rangers): Drew Meyer, SS – 0 MLB games</p>
<p><strong>2003</strong></p>
<p>3<sup>rd</sup> overall (Tigers): Kyle Sleeth, RHP – 0 MLB games<br />
5<sup>th</sup> overall (Royals): Chris Lubanski, OF – 0 MLB games<br />
6<sup>th</sup> overall (Cubs) Ryan Harvey, OF – 0 MLB games</p>
<p><strong>2004</strong></p>
<p>1<sup>st</sup> overall (Padres): Matt Bush, SS/RHP – 99 MLB games, 100 IP*<br />
3<sup>rd</sup> overall (Mets): Phillip Humber, RHP – 97 MLB games, 371 IP<br />
4<sup>th</sup> overall (Devil Rays): Jeff Niemann, RHP – 97 MLB games, 544.1 IP<br />
5<sup>th </sup>overall (Brewers): Mark Rogers, RHP – 12 MLB games, 49 IP<br />
6<sup>th</sup> overall (Cleveland): Jeremy Sowers, LHP – 72 MLB games, 400 IP<br />
10<sup>th</sup> overall (Rangers): Thomas Diamond, RHP – 16 MLB games, 29 IP</p>
<p><strong>2005</strong><br />
8<sup>th</sup> overall (Devil Rays): Wade Townsend, RHP – 0 MLB games</p>
<p><strong>2006</strong><br />
2<sup>nd</sup> overall (Rockies): Greg Reynolds, RHP – 33 MLB games, 123.1 IP<br />
9<sup>th</sup> overall (Orioles): Billy Rowell, 3B – 0 MLB games</p>
<p><strong>2007</strong></p>
<p>3<sup>rd</sup> overall (Cubs): Josh Vitters, 3B – 36 MLB games<br />
4<sup>th</sup> overall (Pirates): Daniel Moskos, LHP – 31 MLB games, 24.1 IP<br />
8<sup>th</sup> overall (Rockies): Casey Weathers, RHP – 0 MLB games<br />
9<sup>th</sup> overall (Diamondbacks): Jarrod Parker, RHP – 62 MLB games, 384 IP</p>
<p><strong>2008</strong></p>
<p>6<sup>th</sup> overall (Marlins): Kyle Skipworth, C – 4 MLB games</p>
<p><strong>2009</strong></p>
<p>3<sup>rd</sup> overall (Padres): Donovan Tate, CF – 0 MLB games<br />
4<sup>th</sup> overall (Pirates): Tony Sanchez, C – 51 MLB games<br />
5<sup>th</sup> overall (Orioles): Matt Hobgood, RHP – 0 MLB games<br />
6<sup>th</sup> overall (Giants): Zack Wheeler, RHP – 70 MLB games, 371.2 IP*<br />
9<sup>th</sup> overall (Tigers): Jacob Turner, RHP – 97 MLB games, 362.1 IP*</p>
<p><strong>2010</strong><br />
2<sup>nd</sup> overall (Pirates): Jameson Taillon, RHP – 32 MLB games played, 180 IP*<br />
7<sup>th</sup> overall (Mets): Matt Harvey, RHP – 96 MLB games played, 590 IP*<br />
10<sup>th</sup> overall (Athletics): Michael Choice, CF – 96 MLB games played</p>
<p>*active player in the MLB</p>
<p>Out of 110 players that were drafted, 36.3% didn’t suit up for at least 100 Major League games. Factor in players who were drafted but didn’t sign and that number goes up to 40.9%. In fact, 18.4% of those top ten picks who signed never even played a SINGLE game. And these numbers are just appearances. They don&#8217;t include the countless high picks that got into 100 games but did nothing notable throughout their careers. High draft picks are great, but if you aren’t hitting on them, it will drag on an excruciating rebuild.</p>
<p>This isn’t an anti-prospects or anti-draft thing, either. Prospects are the most valuable commodity a team can have. Don’t believe me? Look at what the Red Sox gave up for Chris Sale. If you’re a small market team that doesn’t have many real assets, I get the whole wait and see approach. If you have nothing to play for anyway, why not wait a few more years and build up your farm system and hope to get lucky in the draft? This described those early 2010s Astros perfectly. They had no path to contention without a full blow up.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s not Toronto, though.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays are in a big market and still feeling the effects of back to back ALCS berths. The team, despite being in last place in their division for the entire season, are still drawing just over 40 thousand fans per game and once again lead the American League in attendance. I’m not sure ownership would want to blow everything up and sacrifice the next few seasons for a chance to win in five years. As we saw with the Astros above, rebuild take a large toll on fan interest. There were some mitigating factors (such as the Astros fans not being able to see them on tv), but a blow up WILL hurt the team&#8217;s bottom line. On the baseball side of things, the Blue Jays still have young, valuable players with years of control remaining around whom the Jays can build winners. Those Astros didn&#8217;t have anybody like that.</p>
<p>What the Blue Jays can and should do is keep being creative. Look at what Drew Hutchison fetched the team just because the team was able to add salary, which is very similar to what happened with Francisco Liriano. The increased following for this team allows them to use money to improve the team instead of giving up assets &#8211; whether they&#8217;re on the big league roster or in the minors. Does this team desperately need some new faces and a retool? Absolutely. But that can be done with shrewd moves and free agency. They shouldn’t take a huge step back and alienate all of the new fans in the process, especially with the draft still being such a hit or miss system.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What Ticket Sale Data can Tell us About Future Blue Jays Attendance</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/20/what-ticket-sale-data-tells-us-about-future-blue-jays-attendance/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/20/what-ticket-sale-data-tells-us-about-future-blue-jays-attendance/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Jun 2017 14:20:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Shell]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Attendance]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Payroll]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trade Deadline]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11955</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In an article last month arguing that the Blue Jays shouldn’t trade Josh Donaldson, Jonah Keri leaned heavily on a financial argument: “Losing games would be one thing. Losing games and trading Donaldson could signal to fans that a full teardown is underway, and that the next several years of Blue Jays baseball might be [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In an<a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/jonah-keri-case-trading-josh-donaldson-season/"> article last month</a> arguing that the Blue Jays shouldn’t trade Josh Donaldson, Jonah Keri leaned heavily on a financial argument:</p>
<p>“Losing games would be one thing. Losing games and trading Donaldson could signal to fans that a full teardown is underway, and that the next several years of Blue Jays baseball might be tough to watch…Keeping Donaldson around for as long as possible could help prolong the franchise’s off-field momentum, the kind that’s supercharged attendance and TV ratings, and more intangibly made the Jays a hot topic of conversation on those glorious Toronto summer patio nights — like they were 25 years ago.”</p>
<p>Keri here is making a guess about something we don’t really know much about &#8211; namely, fan reactions to head office moves, and the implications for franchise revenue. It’s not that the financial side doesn’t matter – in fact, especially for a corporate club like the Jays, it’s crucial! It’s just that we tend to attach too much credibility to our gut instincts when we don&#8217;t have facts to lean on. I doubt Keri, or anyone else, wants to be like that scout in Moneyball talking about “the good face.” But when it comes to the economics of baseball, that’s who we often are.</p>
<p>The revolution in baseball analysis hasn&#8217;t extended to the financial side, despite its large influence on team decision-making. Even high-effort attempts to understand teams&#8217; current state and future prospects limit their financial analysis to current payroll levels, such as this otherwise <a href="http://www.hardballtimes.com/ground-rule-doppelgangers-2017-edition/">very cool concept </a>at the Hardball Times.<a id="ref1" href="#1"><sup>[1]</sup></a> But to a large extent, current payroll is a backward-looking metric, as it reflects decisions made in the past in potentially different circumstances. For example, the Detroit Tigers are an aging team with a high payroll and a collapsing attendance base. Current payroll may be an indicator of what they’re willing to spend in a good situation, but may not be a good indicator of their willingness or ability to add quality players over the next few years.</p>
<p>Since we currently often use hunch-based economics to support our arguments about what each team should do at the trade deadline, it might be useful to have some analytical tools or theories based on research. For example, what’s the actual “signalling” impact of trading someone like Josh Donaldson or Roberto Osuna? Does attendance reflect who the players are, and how long they’ve been with the team, or is it just about winning? How much does team revenue influence the player budget, and how does that differ based on the type of team owner?</p>
<p>While these questions would require some pretty painful historical research, we probably have enough available data today to create some useful metrics. The rise of Stubhub has produced accessible data about demand for tickets that scalpers never published. This data can be like the “peripherals” of revenue, using current market sentiment to predict a team’s season attendance, which is a good proxy for their revenue.<a id="ref2" href="#2"><sup>[2]</sup></a> This is exactly the same way xFIP tries to predict long-term ERA. Call it xREV, or xATT.</p>
<p>I think it would be pretty cool if Jonah Keri could say that the xREV for the Blue Jays is looking down about 10% for 2017, so we can’t expect the player budget to increase and need to think about things like trading Roberto Osuna. When <a href="https://bluejaysnation.com/2017/06/16/dont-trade-roberto-osuna-commit-to-making-him-a-starter/" target="_blank">Andrew Stoeten says</a> “unless something with their budget changes dramatically, the Blue Jays&#8230;aren’t quite going to be in that 2015-like push-in-all-your-chips, our-window-is-right-now kind of place,” this reasonable argument would be helped if xATT showed little reason to expect a dramatic change in their budget.</p>
<p>While we don&#8217;t have this metric, I&#8217;m going to make a lazy attempt at something similar.</p>
<p>First, let’s look at actual attendance so far this year compared to the last few years:</p>
<table width="385">
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="4" width="385">Blue Jays Attendance through 36 Home Games</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>Year</td>
<td>Record</td>
<td>Total Attendance</td>
<td>Average Per Game</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2014</td>
<td>39-27</td>
<td> 914,601</td>
<td> 25,405</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2015</td>
<td>37-33</td>
<td> 949,648</td>
<td> 26,379</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2016</td>
<td>40-34</td>
<td> 1,369,090</td>
<td> 38,030</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td>2017</td>
<td>33-35</td>
<td> 1,400,638</td>
<td> 38,907</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Well, that doesn’t look too bad. On the face of it, the Blue Jays seem to be holding on to the gains they made last year, where they finished the year with 3.3 million fans. As Jonah points out, first in the AL!</p>
<p>But the underlying demand that would go into a predictive “xREV” paint a different picture. To look at it, I used seatgeek.com and my friend Dan. Seatgeek.com has a cool tool that shows you average ticket price on the secondary market for a team over time. My friend Dan lives in Calgary and actively sells every one of his season tickets on stubhub, which he has so he can get playoff tickets.<a id="ref3" href="#3"><sup>[3]</sup></a> He’s better than your friend Dan because he also keeps really good track of his sales stats.</p>
<p>Here’s the Jays picture on seatgeek.com since Feb, 2014:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Since-beginning-of-2014.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11956" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Since-beginning-of-2014.png" alt="Since beginning of 2014" width="500" height="405" /></a></p>
<p>Average ticket prices last year dipped as low as $57, but this year they’ve barely ever been at that level, and are currently at $42, similar to prices in 2014 and early 2015 when attendance and interest was much lower. They did sell a lot more advance seats this year, so some of this would be expected as there’s a lot more supply in the market, but this should be a good indicator of a reduced interest in walk-up tickets.</p>
<p>Obviously, the team is doing worse, so that&#8217;s to be expected, but there have also been times this year where their record was very similar to last year, and it&#8217;s the same story.</p>
<p>For example, this year the Yankees came to town for a weekend series June 2-4, with the Blue Jays just under .500. The series drew 138K fans. Last year, the Red Sox came for a weekend series May 27-29 with the team just under .500, and drew 142K fans. That was almost exactly the same situation. According to Seatgeek, last year the average ticket price for the Red Sox series ranged from $45 to $58, while this year it was $39-41 for the Yanks. Dan’s results were even worse, averaging $61 a ticket this year versus $91 last year. <em>Even when the team performance was equally bad</em>, demand this year is a lot less than last year.</p>
<p>In fact, so far this year Dan’s getting crushed.<a id="ref4" href="#4"><sup>[4]</sup></a> Here’s his stats through 36 games:</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td colspan="5" width="349">Dan&#8217;s Ticket Sales (through 36 games)</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="38"></td>
<td width="78">Total Sales</td>
<td width="61">Average</td>
<td width="116">Sales above $90</td>
<td width="56">No Sale</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="38">2016</td>
<td width="78">$2,242</td>
<td width="61">$62.29</td>
<td width="116">12</td>
<td width="56">3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="38">2017</td>
<td width="78">$1,228</td>
<td width="61">$34.11</td>
<td width="116">1</td>
<td width="56">10</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>And if you think he’s being lazy, he’s actually working harder this year. “Last year I held back the tickets because we knew there’d be real demand for the big games. This year, I have to post them way in advance, actively manage the change in prices and keep adjusting. I’m not going to do it again next year.” So, the Jays are already down two seats in 2018!</p>
<p>The change showed up very early, as last year’s home opener average on seatgeek was $61, while this year’s, after the miserable 1-5 start, was $39. Dan’s story was worse again, selling last year’s tickets for $260, and this year’s for $67.<a id="ref5" href="#5"><sup>[5]</sup></a></p>
<p>If demand continues to be this soft for new ticket sales, you’d expect to see a much lower average attendance for the rest of this year than the 47K per game they had from this point forward in 2016. Even keeping our league-leading current average attendance of 39K per game leads to a loss of 350K fans for the year. And there’s some evidence (the Yankees/Red Sox series comparison) that even if the team rallies back to take a wild card, interest would be lower than it was for the same result last year. If I had to take a stab at xATT, it would be 2.9-3.1M.</p>
<p>In Keri’s <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/osunas-dominance-present-blue-jays-tempting-options/" target="_blank">perfectly reasonable article about trading Roberto Osuna</a>,<a id="ref6" href="#6"><sup>[6]</sup></a> he says this about the Jays fanbase: “Balanced against all that is a fanbase that’s been energized by the team’s recent success, with two straight ALCS appearances producing the best home attendance for any American League team this year, as well as surging TV ratings and a more intangible buzz around the ballclub, the kind that hadn’t been felt since the back-to-black glory years of 1992 and 1993.”</p>
<p>We’ll see how the rest of the season goes, but it’s possible that momentum has already swung the other way, and that underlying attendance “peripherals” may point to a lot less money to work with going forward. Before we trade Donaldson and “tear it all down,” this is pretty lazy analysis, and could easily be useless. But there’s a big gap in the baseball analytics world, and developing some useful tools on these topics would make predicting a team’s moves a lot more interesting and better informed.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>FOOTNOTES</strong></span></p>
<p><a id="1" href="#ref1"><sup>[1]</sup></a>The analysis attempts to find a historical match for each current team based on a number of dimensions.  The Jays are, as it happens, compared to the 1990 San Francisco Giants, who won 85, 75 and 72 games from 1990-1992.  Let’s hope not!</p>
<p><a id="2" href="#ref2"><sup>[2]</sup></a>Attendance is a team’s primary revenue source, and you’d expect it to drive merchandise sales, which are two of the three main drivers of revenue. TV is the other, and for most other teams, this is a long-term contract unaffected by attendance. Because the Blue Jays don’t have a TV contract for a specific set amount of money, TV revenue for the Blue Jays/Rogers is directly tied to advertising revenue, which is directly tied to ratings and therefore fan interest. So, attendance is a better proxy for revenue for the Jays than other teams.</p>
<p><a id="3" href="#ref3"><sup>[3]</sup></a>This worked out really well for Dan last year, as he made enough of a profit on the regular season seats to more or less pay for his trip to Toronto to see the playoffs. This year, not so much.</p>
<p><a id="4" href="#ref4"><sup>[4]</sup></a>Before you scream “small sample size,” Stubhub works largely like a stock market for tickets, where there are many buyer and sellers, so an active seller’s result will be indicative of the actual market rate.</p>
<p><a id="5" href="#ref5"><sup>[5]</sup></a>To be fair, last year was a Friday against the Red Sox and this year was a Tuesday against the Brewers, but these are some pretty dramatic differences.</p>
<p><a id="6" href="#ref6"><sup>[6]</sup></a>Not to get too deeply into this, but Osuna’s going to cost somewhere between $25-30M in his last three years of arbitration eligibility if he stays healthy. Kenley Jansen signed for $16M/year, or about $50M over the same time period. The recent hauls for players like Ken Giles and Tyler Thornburg were worth more than the difference, and Osuna’s better than those guys (not to mention the Andrew Miller and Craig Kimbrel deals). I’m not saying “do it,” but it’s certainly not crazy. And my love for Osuna runs deep…</p>
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