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	<title>Toronto &#187; Andrew McCutchen</title>
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		<title>3 Things to Watch for Against the Pirates</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/10/3-things-to-watch-for-against-the-pirates/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 11 Aug 2017 00:56:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Series Preview]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McCutchen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Rowley]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Felipe Rivero]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pittsburgh Pirates]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Written by Sean Addis, Rachael McDaniel, and Gideon Turk Rowley to the Rescue In the middle game of the three game series against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates, the Toronto Blue Jays will use their 12th different starting pitcher of the 2017 season. Right-hander Chris Rowley will be given the ball on Saturday afternoon. The 26-year-old may [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p style="text-align: center"><em>Written by Sean Addis, Rachael McDaniel, and Gideon Turk</em></p>
<h3><b>Rowley to the Rescue</b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In the middle game of the three game series against the visiting Pittsburgh Pirates, the Toronto Blue Jays will use their 12</span><span style="font-weight: 400">th</span><span style="font-weight: 400"> different starting pitcher of the 2017 season. Right-hander Chris Rowley will be given the ball on Saturday afternoon. The 26-year-old may not be familiar name for many Blue Jays fans. This could be due to the fact he did not pitch in the team’s minor league system during the 2014 and 2015 seasons. Many would assume the lack of baseball activity was due to injury, however, that wasn’t the case for Rowley. He had graduated from the US Academy at West Point and had to fulfill his service commitment (owed Army time) after his graduation. As a result, many teams passer on spending a pick on him. On the other hand, the Blue Jays<a href="https://twitter.com/bnicholsonsmith/status/895837914088734720" target="_blank"> took a flier on him</a> and invited had him pitch for the Gulf Coast League prior to his deployment to Europe.</span> You can read all about his unusual journey in <a title="The Unusual Journey of Blue Jays Prospect Chris Rowley" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/23/the-unusual-journey-of-blue-jays-prospect-chris-rowley/" target="_blank">this profile by Tammy Rainey</a> from June</p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In his second full minor league season since his return, Rowley split his time with Double-A New Hampshire and Triple-A Buffalo.  In 27 games (11 starts) he has posted impressive numbers:  2.29 ERA, 7.6 K/9, 1.016 WHIP and a strikeout to walk ratio of 3.75. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Rowley’s fastball tops out at 91-92 mph, but he has been able to effectively mix his other assortment of pitches (slider, sinker and changeup). His success can be attributed to keeping the ball down in the zone due to his high ground ball rate (47 %), and keeping hitters off balance with a 16-19% line drive rate, as well as only surrendering six home runs over 106.1 innings.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Unlike other spot starters Rowley brings more potential and a higher ceiling. As much as the Blue Jays hope he helps a depleted rotation in the present, they can also view this as an audition to be an option to slot into a rotation for next season. </span></p>
<h3><b>Felipe Rivero, Legitimate Relief Ace </b></h3>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">In 2016, Felipe Rivero was a mediocre lefty reliever with one fantastically good pitch. Rivero’s changeup in 2016 was in the top ten of all relievers (min. 200 pitches) in velocity and horizontal and vertical break. It lead all relievers in whiffs per swing, which the pitch generated at a 58.3 percent clip. But in spite of this elite pitch, Rivero ended the year with pedestrian numbers.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">This season has seen Rivero become nothing short of a revelation for the Pirates. He currently sports a 1.75 ERA, a 0.75 WHIP, and has been worth 1.9 WARP out of the Pirates bullpen. (Rivero’s stats likely haunt the dreams of the Washington Nationals front office, who last season traded him away for two months of Mark Melancon.)</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">What has changed for Rivero this season? First of all, he’s throwing harder. </span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">All of Rivero’s pitches have seen an uptick in velocity over the past year. Most significant has been the fourseam fastball, which has gone from averaging 96.8 miles per hour in July 2016 to 99.3 in July 2017. Rivero’s fourseamer has often hit triple digits this year, making it a formidable complement to his changeup.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">A large part of Rivero’s overall unremarkable performance in 2016 was due to an extreme reverse platoon split. While he held right-handed batters to a .203/.290/.337 batting line and a 31.7-percent strikeout rate, largely due to the effectiveness of his changeup, lefties put up an unpleasant .286/.387/.378 batting line. In 2017, the platoon split has un-reversed itself. Out of 74 left-handed batters Rivero has faced so far this season, only 11 have reached base &#8211; five hits, three walks, and three hit batters. Lefties are batting .073/.149/.088 against Rivero in 2017. What gives?</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Rivero seldom throws the changeup to left-handed batters. He instead opts to use his fourseam fastball in combination with his slider. Unfortunately for Rivero, left-handed batters were all over the fourseamer in 2016. Not only did the pitch lack the velocity that it now has, but Rivero didn’t locate it effectively. Here is where Rivero’s fourseamers ended up against lefties in 2016:</span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong><strong><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Screen-Shot-2017-08-11-at-7.56.44-AM.png"><img class="alignnone wp-image-12890" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Screen-Shot-2017-08-11-at-7.56.44-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-08-11 at 7.56.44 AM" width="450" height="452" /></a></strong></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: left">And here’s where they’ve been in 2017:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong><strong><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Screen-Shot-2017-08-11-at-7.57.45-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-12891" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Screen-Shot-2017-08-11-at-7.57.45-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-08-11 at 7.57.45 AM" width="450" height="448" /></a></strong></strong></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Rather than scattering the fastball across the zone to lefties, as he did in 2016, Rivero has more consistently located his fastballs, primarily up and in the inner half of the strike zone, pairing up with his sweeping down-and-away slider. Add this improved location to the improved velocity and you get a pitch that lefties have hit a clean .000 against since the beginning of May. And just to add to the fun, Rivero has begun to mix in a curveball more frequently in 2017 with a release point is almost identical to the slider’s. So he&#8217;s now dominating lefties &#8211; without using his best pitch.</span></p>
<p><span style="font-weight: 400">Used as a setup man for the first part of the season, Rivero fairly recently moved into the closer’s role for the Pirates after Tony Watson proved himself unequal to the task and was subsequently traded. This means that the best course of action for the Jays is to avoid the bottom of the ninth altogether. We’ve seen quite a few dramatic late comebacks over the past several weeks, but with Rivero on the mound, I wouldn’t put my money on another one.</span></p>
<h3><b>Andrew McCutchen Didn&#8217;t Stay Down for Long<br />
</b></h3>
<p>Remember in the off-season, when rumours were swirling about the Blue Jays&#8217; supposed trade interest in Andrew McCutchen? People at the time were opposed to giving up a big package for the Pirates centrefielder because of his performance in 2016, which was far from his career numbers. He suffered drops in power, speed, and plate discipline, all telltale signs that maybe he was starting to enter the decline phase of his career.</p>
<p>That was not the case. McCutchen has stormed back in 2017, putting up numbers that would look plenty normal if you stuck them in with his earlier career peak. He is striking out at his lowest rate since 2013 and putting up his best power season ever according to ISO. His 2016 decline has not showed up in 2017.</p>
<p>However, this doesn&#8217;t mean the Blue Jays have no way of getting him out. His greatest weakness this year has been the slider, with just a .664 OPS against it and 25 strikeouts in 77 at-bats. But there is a very fine line that Blue Jays pitchers need to draw if they are to attack McCutchen with sliders. Although in the aggregate he hasn&#8217;t had success against it, he has still hit three home runs on pitches that were left up. If Blue Jays pitchers can set him up with hard stuff inside and then bury sliders in the dirt, they should be able to manage against McCutchen. If they can&#8217;t control it and miss with their spots, that&#8217;s when he&#8217;ll be able to do what he does best and make them pay.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Four Blue Jays Mega Moves That Almost Happened</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/19/what-if-four-blue-jays-mega-moves-that-almost-happened/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 19 Jan 2017 15:33:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McCutchen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Trades]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[Monday was one of the busiest days of the offseason. News of a likely reunion between Jose Bautista and the Jays started to filter out; as a reaction to the Bautista news, Michael Saunders was rumored to be signing with the Phillies. Monday also brought about one of the sexier rumors of the offseason via [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Monday was one of the busiest days of the offseason. News of a likely reunion between Jose Bautista and the Jays started to filter out; as a reaction to the Bautista news, Michael Saunders was rumored to be signing with the Phillies. Monday also brought about one of the sexier rumors of the offseason <a href="rumbunter.com/2017/01/16/pittsburgh-pirates-toronto-blue-jays-discussed-mega-deal/" target="_blank">via Rum Bunter</a> – the Jays and Pirates talked mega deal. The rumor suggested Toronto discussed a multiplayer trade with the Pirates that sought to bring Andrew McCutchen and reliever Tony Watson to Toronto in exchange for five players, including three of the Blue Jays’ top ten prospects.</p>
<p>While the Jays and Pirates were not able to settle on a deal, the trade reminds us that our favorite teams are often only a phone call or single-A prospect away from looking very different than they are currently constructed &#8211; both this year and down the line (the Jays would have likely had to say goodbye to teen dream, Vlad Jr. to get Cutch and Watson).</p>
<p>With Jose Bautista back in Toronto and the hot stove beginning to cool down (unless you’re ready to get excited about backup catchers), now is a good time to look at other transactions that almost happened, and would have drastically altered Blue Jays’ history had they been completed.</p>
<h3>Jose Cruz Jr. to the Mets for David Wright</h3>
<p>In the summer of 2002, the Blue Jays almost made a trade that would have gone down as one of the best in team history. The most quotable general manager in team history, <a href="http://nypost.com/2014/07/31/5-mind-blowing-trades-that-almost-happened/">J.P. Ricciardi, declined to accept the New York Mets’ offer of David Wright for Jose Cruz Jr.</a> Wright was a prospect playing in A-ball at the time and Jose Cruz Jr. was having a good, but not spectacular year for the Blue Jays (.245/.317/.438 and a WARP of 2.7).</p>
<p>What makes the non-trade for Wright perplexing from a Blue Jays point of view is that Cruz Jr. left as a free agent the following winter when Toronto declined to offer him arbitration. The team was also 18.5 games out of first place by mid July, which makes Ricciardi’s insistence on holding onto Cruz Jr. through the final months of the season even more confusing.</p>
<p>Wright, meanwhile, turned into one of the better players in baseball for the next decade – posting seven seasons with a WARP over 5.5 between 2005 and 2013 for the Mets. But to quote J.P. Ricciardi at the time:</p>
<p>“I’m not trading a major league player for some guy in the Sally League.”</p>
<h3>Toronto Misses Out in Bidding for Yu Darvish</h3>
<p>In the winter of 2011, the Blue Jays, then run by Alex Anthopoulos, began their quest to take advantage of the competitive window afforded to them by way of Jose Bautista’s prime and the Yankees and Red Sox relinquishing their stranglehold on the division.</p>
<p>2011 was also the year that Yu Darvish decided to make the transition from Japanese baseball to the Major Leagues. <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/report-blue-jays-lead-in-bid-for-darvish/article4181251/">Amidst much speculation that the Blue Jays would emerge the high bidder for the Japanese-Iranian ace</a>, they were outbid by the Texas Rangers and unable to secure the top of the rotation arm they desired.</p>
<p>Since signing with the Rangers, Darvish has pitched like an ace, posting elite strikeout numbers and a career ERA of 3.29 in four seasons (he missed 2015 due to Tommy John surgery). It’s easy to dream on a Blue Jays&#8217; rotation that featured Darvish at the top  – the team may not have surrendered any number of the young players traded in their quest for front of the rotation pitching in the years that followed. It’s hard not to ponder an alternate reality where Darvish, Noah Syndergaard, and Aaron Sanchez all pitch in the same rotation for the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>But before Blue Jays fans feel too badly about missing out on the shuuto-baller, just remember that Darvish’s implosion in last year’s playoffs is partially responsible for the Blue Jays’ 3-game sweep of the Rangers in the 2016 ALDS.</p>
<h3>Jose Bautista to the Philadelphia Phillies for Domonic Brown</h3>
<p>Had this trade ever been consummated, it would have usurped the R.A. Dickey/Noah Syndergaard trade as the most complained about in recent Blue Jays’ history.</p>
<p>Even at the time the <a href="https://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2013/11/13/jose_bautista_trade_rumours_heat_up_are_blue_jays_looking_at_phillies_domonic_brown.html">short-lived rumor</a> emerged (the 2013 Winter Meetings), this was clearly a very bad trade for the Blue Jays. Jose Bautista was one of the best offensive players in baseball on a team-friendly contract. Domonic Brown was a former top prospect coming off an apparent breakout season. Nary a soul in Blue Jays world &#8211; and that includes Blue Jays’ Twitter, and you know how people on Twitter feel about agreement &#8211; thought this trade would have been a good idea.</p>
<p>Admittedly, the rumor came from a less than Rosenthal-esque source (Philadelphia radio personality, Howard Eskin), but it had enough legs to make a few waves throughout the baseball world. Bautista would go on to produce two more stellar seasons in Toronto before an injury-plagued 2016 limited his production. Meanwhile, Brown, who was coming off his (somewhat fluky) best season to date, struggled to stay in the Majors in 2014-15.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays ultimately got their man when they signed Brown to a minor league deal after the 2015 season. He played 126 games at Triple-A Buffalo in 2016 where he slashed .239/303./.336. Definitely not the kind of production you want to give up Jose Bautista for.</p>
<h3>Alex Rios to the San Francisco Giants for Tim Lincecum</h3>
<p>During the 2007 Winter Meetings, Blue Jays GM J.P. Ricciardi reportedly presented the San Francisco Giants with a one-for-one challenge trade: offering <a href="http://www.theglobeandmail.com/sports/baseball/another-jays-trade-that-never-happened/article1373337/">Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum.</a> Rios was coming off of a strong 2007 that saw the 26-year-old outfielder slash .297/.354/.498 while putting up 5.0 WARP. Lincecum, meanwhile, was coming off of his rookie season in which he threw 146.1 innings with an ERA of 4.00 and a whole mess of strikeouts.</p>
<p>While the Giants were in need of offensive production to replace Barry Bonds, who was forced into early retirement, the trade was less intuitive for the Blue Jays, who already had a rotation led by Roy Halladay and A.J. Burnett.</p>
<p>Neither Rios or Lincecum were able to maintain long peaks of elite production in the Major Leagues. Lincecum’s dominant seasons (2008-2011) top Rios’ – the latter of whom was more productive than it felt given his injuries, inconsistencies, and his less appreciated contributions on the bases and in the outfield. Interestingly enough, the players career WARPs are fairly similar, too, with Lincecum edging Rios 32.9 to 26.</p>
<p>The Rios/Lincecum trade would also have meant avoiding the potentially burdensome 7-year, $69.8 million dollar contract that the Blue Jays signed Alex Rios to the following season. Luckily for Toronto, the Chicago White Sox claimed him off waivers in 2009.</p>
<p>What would a trade of Alex Rios for Tim Lincecum have done to alter the Blue Jays in the years to come? Would the Blue Jays become one of the great pitching dynasties of the late 2000s? Would Roy Halladay  re-sign with the team? How much money would Alex Rios end up making in his career? For better or worse, we will have to play Scoresheet baseball to find out.</p>
<p>Rumors like the Jays/Pirates mega deal are an important reminder that building a major league roster involves constant attempts to negotiate trades and signings that never come to fruition. While it may drive you crazy to think the Jays could have had young David Wright for half a season of Jose Cruz Jr., remember they could have just as easily traded away Jose Bautista for Triple-A depth.  Go easy on your favorite team’s executives. Even J.P Ricciardi.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Anthony Gruppuso-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Creative Ways to Navigate the Weak Free Agent Market</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/09/creative-ways-to-navigate-the-weak-free-agent-market/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/09/creative-ways-to-navigate-the-weak-free-agent-market/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 09 Nov 2016 14:05:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s no secret that the 2017 free agent market isn&#8217;t quite as strong as we&#8217;ve seen in recent years. MLB Trade Rumours predicts that just one free agent, Yoenis Cespedes, will receive a contract for more than $100 million when last season, MLBTR predicted that nine free agents would receive more than $100 million, with seven of them [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s no secret that the 2017 free agent market isn&#8217;t quite as strong as we&#8217;ve seen in recent years. <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html" target="_blank">MLB Trade Rumours predicts</a> that just one free agent, Yoenis Cespedes, will receive a contract for more than $100 million when last season, <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/11/2016-17-top-50-mlb-free-agents-predictions.html" target="_blank">MLBTR predicted</a> that nine free agents would receive more than $100 million, with <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016-mlb-free-agent-tracker/contract_amount_operator-2__contract_amount-100000000" target="_blank">seven of them surpassing that mark</a>. What&#8217;s the result of poor prospects for free agency? It&#8217;s likely that you&#8217;re going to get a lot of players who&#8217;ll be paid a good amount more than they&#8217;re worth. Now, if you&#8217;re the Toronto Blue Jays, and you just surpassed 3,000,000 in attendance for the first time since 1993, you can probably afford to overpay for a few key free agents. But, should you? That&#8217;s a more precarious question.</p>
<p>At present, the Jays are in an interesting position. From a psychological standpoint, the core of this Blue Jays team will be gone if Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion go to other teams. However, from a performance standpoint, the core will still be here. Between Josh Donaldson, Russell Martin, Troy Tulowitzki, Aaron Sanchez, Marco Estrada, J.A. Happ, and more, the Blue Jays have enough to do well, but perhaps not enough for a playoff spot.</p>
<p>Also, because many of the Blue Jays&#8217; biggest stars (most notably Josh Donaldson) aren&#8217;t under club control for much longer, the tendency would be to make a statement to win now. But, the Blue Jays squad isn&#8217;t entirely of the old guard; there&#8217;s a new wave of talent on the horizon with Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Devon Travis, and a robust prospect base in the lower minors. Given that, and the fact that the top end of free agency will cost more in the long term than its worth, the Blue Jays will need to get creative.</p>
<p>Here are four ways that they can do that:</p>
<h4>Get Trading</h4>
<p>At the moment, we&#8217;re still waiting for the trade market to fully develop for the offseason, but there should be a few key pieces available. Kyle Matte wrote about <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/02/andrew-mccutchen-a-wise-investment/" target="_blank">one such candidate</a> last week: Andrew McCutchen. While McCutchen is one candidate, he&#8217;s representative of the type of player that might be up for trade as the offseason progresses. The Pirates are one of a handful of teams that disappointed, and fell at or below .500 in 2016. Others include the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Rockies, Marlins, Royals, and White Sox. Each have a few valuable commodities, but will have to decide whether they can do enough to improve with what&#8217;s available internally, or on the market.</p>
<p>However, the Blue Jays may run in to a trading issue with so few of their top prospects having reached the upper minors. In fact, just three of <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#FMtfQDczrrFdAXue.97" target="_blank">Baseball America&#8217;s Top 10 Blue Jays Prospects</a> played at all in the upper minors last season. And those who did (Connor Greene, Rowdy Tellez, and Richard Urena), don&#8217;t project out as supertars. That&#8217;ll make trying to get a top trade piece very tough if the Blue Jays don&#8217;t want to part with someone currently expected to make the 2017 major league roster. Although that doesn&#8217;t mean it&#8217;s impossible; the new Blue Jays&#8217; front office&#8217;s trade for Liriano at the deadline <em>was</em> pretty crafty.</p>
<h4>Look into a Platoon</h4>
<p>It&#8217;ll be incredibly hard for any one player not-named Edwin Encarnacion to fill in for the production that the Blue Jays&#8217; got from the DH/1B spot last season. Joshua Howsam tried his hand at <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/08/under-the-radar-free-agent-options/" target="_blank">finding a few such players</a> yesterday, but even the best of the bunch would be a downgrade on their own. However, the solution for a number of present holes could be a strict platoon, something that the Jays utilized very little of in 2016.</p>
<p>In his piece, Joshua went over a couple of the platoon options at DH, in Brandon Moss and Pedro Alvarez. However, the same thinking could be applied when considering another outfielder. Desmond Jennings, Drew Stubbs, and Chris Heisey are a few options who&#8217;ve historically hit left handed pitchers at an above average clip. Matt Joyce, Daniel Nava, and Colby Rasmus (!) are a few options who&#8217;ve historically hit right handed pitchers at an above average clip. Granted, any platoon comes with some risk as you&#8217;re operating in smaller samples, but there is abundant choice from which to pick.</p>
<h4>Bet on Defence</h4>
<p>In 2016, the Blue Jays did anything but bet on defence when it came to the outfield. Sure, there was (and still is) defensive superstar Kevin Pillar. But he was forced to cover up ground lost by the 36-year-old right fielder with only an arm to offer and the 29-year-old left fielder recovering from a knee injury. With the free-agent market&#8217;s top hitters set to garner big dollars, looking to a player with a greater defensive balance  would be an upside play.</p>
<p>This method, while potentially effective, is also admittedly risky. It&#8217;s hard enough to perdict how your own player will perform defensively in any given season, let alone gauging the defense of a free agent. However, if the Blue Jays <em>were</em> to go this route an option like Carlos Gomez exists.</p>
<p>In addition to having an uptick in offensive performance once he joined the Rangers late in the season, Carlos Gomez has historically been a great defender. The advanced defensive metrics don&#8217;t show it last season, but I&#8217;m willing to bet that an ex-<a href="http://www.fieldingbible.com/the-2013-winners.asp" target="_blank">Fielding Bible Award</a> winner in centre field could once again be elite if placed in an outfield corner.</p>
<h4>Go Big, But Short-Term</h4>
<p>The last option bucks the trend of avoiding the big players on the free agent market. In this scenario, one can attempt to envision that the Blue Jays sign the likes of Neil Walker, Wilson Ramos, or Jose Bautista, and that it be a valuable contract. Each of those three players has 2016 baggage; injuries in the cases of Walker and Ramos and poor performance in the case of Bautista. As such, they may be willing to take a deal akin to that of the one that Yoenis Cespedes signed with the New York Mets last offseason.</p>
<p>That deal would have a big short term payout, but the contract would only be for one season, or would include an opt-out clause after one season. Admittedly, this makes more sense for Walker and Ramos than it does for Bautista, who&#8217;s substantially older than the other pair. But any such deal of the Cespedes nature would allow the Blue Jays to flex their financial muscle in the short term, without taking on too much money that could be better spent later.</p>
<p>Of course, given the Jays&#8217; strong showing both on the diamond and in the TV ratings in 2016, none of these options should be necessary. However, they do offer an alternative to a free agent market that otherwise has little value to be found at the top. If the team were solely looking for a piece to put them over the top, then perhaps it would make sense to take the hit and grab a Cespedes, Fowler, or Encarnacion. But, with a few holes on the roster, and a rotation that could see some regression (merely on the basis of health), the big play may not make sense.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Andrew McCutchen: A Wise Trade Investment for the Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/02/andrew-mccutchen-a-wise-investment/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/11/02/andrew-mccutchen-a-wise-investment/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 02 Nov 2016 11:20:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andrew McCutchen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Blue Jayst]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[There’s more than one way to flex your financial muscle in the game of baseball. Shouldering out lesser bidders and landing the top free agents available in November is the standard by which most fans measure their team’s fiscal heft. However, as the Toronto Blue Jays deftly displayed at the non-waiver trade deadline last summer, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There’s more than one way to flex your financial muscle in the game of baseball. Shouldering out lesser bidders and landing the top free agents available in November is the standard by which most fans measure their team’s fiscal heft. However, as the Toronto Blue Jays deftly displayed at the non-waiver trade deadline last summer, absorbing expensive contracts from teams moving in another direction is another, equally-excellent way of acquiring talent. For those who may have forgotten, just before the 4 pm cut-off on August 1st, the Blue Jays swung a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates, surrendering Triple-A right hander Drew Hutchison for left handed starter Francisco Liriano <em>and </em>two top-ten organizational prospects, with the “catch”, if you’d define it as such, being that Toronto would take on the entirety of the $18 million still owed to Liriano between 2016 and 2017.</p>
<p>I can’t think of a single writer or baseball analyst who didn’t absolutely <em>love </em>the move for Toronto at the time, and the results were as sound as the process. Not only did Liriano allow the Blue Jays to move to a six man rotation to space out Aaron Sanchez’ appearances and give Marco Estrada’s ailing back some extended rest, but he channeled his 2013-2015 Pirates’ self on the mound and gave strong start after strong start down the stretch when the club needed him the most. The two prospects that arrived with Liriano – catcher Reese McGuire and outfielder Harold Ramirez – rank as the fourth and fifth best in the Blue Jays’ system <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2016/#list=tor">according to MLB.com</a>, but they’re the icing on an already delicious cake. Taking on the full Liriano contract in order to minimize the talent necessary to be relinquished was arguably General Manager Ross Atkins’ niftiest move yet.</p>
<p>Regardless of how the discussions with Jose Bautista unfold, his defensive performance this postseason made it abundantly clear to all potential suitors that he should no longer be realistically considered an outfielder, and negotiations should be handled with sights firmly set on a designated hitter role. When coupled with Michael Saunders’ impending free agency, Toronto suddenly has a pair of potential openings in the outfield corners, at least one of which could be filled by another of Russell Martin’s former Pittsburgh teammates: Andrew McCutchen.</p>
<p>That’s a flashy introduction, but the justification behind McCutchen’s <a href="http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2016/10/pirates-focusing-on-run-prevention.html">(prospective) availability</a> is that last season he looked little like the five-time All Star the baseball world has come to know and love.  He’s become an expensive luxury for the penny-pinching Pirates. The outfielder turned in career worst walk and strikeout rates as well as his lowest ISO since 2010, leading to an uninspiring .256/.336/.430 slash line. Even still, it was the athletic domains, fielding and base-running, where statistically he appeared to be most a shell of his former self. McCutchen’s -28 DRS were easily the worst among qualified outfielders in 2016.  He was also firmly in the “poor” range in base running according to the metrics, which evaluates a runner based on the sum of their ability to advance the extra base, avoid double plays, and steal bases, all relative to league average.</p>
<p>The Pirates would almost certainly love to keep McCutchen; he’s the face of their franchise, and was the standard bearer as the organization <em>finally </em>advanced to three consecutive postseasons in 2013, 2014, and 2015. But, if any organization has the in-house means to replace a former MVP in the outfield, it’s them. Between 28 year old Starling Marte and 25 year old Gregory Polanco, who are locked up for five and seven more years respectively, the club is already rich in outfield talent at the Major League level. Backing up the pair is a ready-made replacement in Austin Meadows, who ranked as <a href="http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=28319">Baseball Prospectus&#8217; 22nd best prospect in baseball</a> prior to 2016. He should be ready come the passing of the Super 2 deadline.</p>
<p>Last season Andrew McCutchen turned in a career worst batting line, played the worst centerfield defense in baseball, ran the bases like a 240-pound first baseman, and is still owed at least $14.5 million. If you’re questioning why on earth the Blue Jays should be interested in ‘Cutch, your skepticism is justified, however there are reasons to be optimistic for improvement in each of the three facets he struggled so mightily with.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong>***</strong></p>
<p>What was said about his career-worst walk and strikeout rates and his lowest ISO since 2010 remains absolutely true, but mid-20’s, prime Andrew McCutchen set an awfully high, Hall-of-Fame level bar, and expecting the early 30’s model to maintain that extraordinary standard would be unfair. His 10.2 percent walk rate was still a full two points better than league average, while his 21.2 percent strikeout rate <em>was </em>league average. McCutchen’s .174 ISO in 2016 represented a 22 point decline relative to 2015 and a 54 point decline relative to 2014, but interestingly, both his flyball and home run per flyball rates remained consistent across the three years.</p>
<p>Using the <a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_leaderboard?year=2016&amp;abs=100&amp;player_type=batter">Statcast Leaderboard</a> over at Baseball Savant, we can see that McCutchen did lose a little on his exit velocity. His average flyball or line drive was a scorching 95.2 miles per hour in 2015, but fell to a still-above-league-average 94.1 last season. Similarly, his barrel rate (defined as the percentage of balls with an expected batting average/slugging of .500/.1500 based on exit velocity and launch angle) also fell, from 10.6 percent of all batted ball events in 2015 to 8.8 percent in 2016. Unfortunately there is no data available prior to the 2015 season so we can’t observe much in terms of career trends or patterns, but one would think it would take more than a decline of 1 mph in exit velocity to result in a 15 percent drop in extra base hits.</p>
<p>Perhaps the primary culprit for McCutchen’s substandard offensive season, particularly in the power department, was a thumb injury suffered in late May that was <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/181796026/pirates-andrew-mccutchen-injures-right-thumb/">further aggravated in a game against Miami on June 2nd</a>. McCutchen avoided the disabled list, but his performance on the field suffered greatly. Over 26 games in June he hit an abysmal .202/.255/.323, and as we saw first-hand with Josh Donaldson late this season, a jammed thumb can nag for quite some time as it&#8217;s so easily aggravated. With the Pirates&#8217; season firmly in the toilet, McCutchen finally got the physical and mental blow he desperately needed, even if it was one he didn’t especially want. After wrapping up a series against the Brewers on July 31st, <a href="http://www.foxsports.com/mlb/story/heres-why-the-pirates-have-benched-andrew-mccutchen-all-week-080416">Pirates manager Clint Hurdle gave his star the entire next series against the Braves off</a>, refusing to consider even a pinch-hit opportunity. From his August 5th return through the closure of the season, McCutchen hit a robust .284/.381/.471, and the <a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=9847&amp;position=OF&amp;type=&amp;gds=2016-08-05&amp;gde=2016-10-02&amp;season=">supporting numbers are even more glowing</a>. The centerfielder posted walk and strikeout rates of 13.9 and 14.8 percent, respectively, with a .188 ISO, 40.2 percent hard-hit rate, and 8.7 percent whiff rate; all of which were topped off by a 13-game hit streak in mid-September. While you can’t simply wipe out four months of struggles, the August/September version of Andrew McCutchen bears a much better resemblance to what one should expect offensively in the center fielder’s short-term future.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong>***</strong></p>
<p>Just to reiterate last season’s putridity: -28 DRS. There should be a significant asterisk on those figures, however, as a lot of what happened was the consequence of the Pittsburgh coaching staff aligning their outfield differently in 2016 in hopes of better serving their pitching staff.</p>
<p>In 2015, when McCutchen posted bad-but-not-horrendous defensive numbers (-8 DRS), he was positioned an average of 316 feet from home plate; the <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/169428902/kiermaier-plays-baseballs-deepest-center/">fifth deepest among 36 centerfielders on the field for at least 1,000 batted balls</a>. When reviewing the 2015 season over the winter, the Pirates analytics staff discovered that because of their outfield depth and their groundball-heavy pitching staff, they were surrendering too many easy extra bases, be it first-to-third or second-to-home, and too many bloops between the infielders and outfielders. As Clint Hurdle <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/171515768/pirates-positioning-outfield-shallower-in-2016/">said to Adam Berry of MLB.com</a> in April:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;It was glaringly apparent that we could make an adjustment on our end, especially with the athleticism we have with our outfielders, and change the dynamic of what&#8217;s gone on as far as run prevention goes.”</em></p>
<p>The justification was reasonable, as in 2015 the Pirates pitching staff allowed the second shortest average flyball/line drive distance at 285 feet, but allowed the second highest batting average on those batted balls at .482. Unfortunately for Pittsburgh, two things happened in 2016. First; McCutchen <a href="http://m.mlb.com/news/article/203465228/statcast-outfield-positioning-harper-mccutchen/">lined up ten feet closer (an average of 306 feet from home plate)</a> but the Pirates average flyball/line drive distance actually increased in 2016. Second; the overall groundball rate of the Pirates staff fell from 50.4 percent to 46.9 percent, and at the expense of those groundballs came more flyballs and line drives. In combination, this resulted in fewer weak batted balls hit in front of McCutchen, and more hard-hit towards the gaps or behind him. Flyballs and line drives are more devastating than groundballs when they find grass – and thus have the greatest influence on run-saving defensive metrics – so before McCutchen even set foot on the field last season he was already behind the 8-ball.</p>
<p>Defense fades as players age, absolutely, but the Pirates coaching staff was the overarching reason why McCutchen statistically looked like a 40-year old out there in 2016. The first step for any team acquiring Andrew McCutchen? Let him play deeper. The second? Shift him to an outfield corner.</p>
<p>The best argument to be made may be the case of Adam Eaton of the White Sox, who entered 2016 as a 27-year old coming off a season in centerfield in which he cost his team defensively with -14 DRS. The Chicago coaching staff made the decision to switch him to right field, and he rewarded them with a Gold Glove caliber, +22 DRS season. An offseason signing of Austin Jackson spurned the move for Eaton and the White Sox; with Kevin Pillar in place for the Blue Jays, a shift for McCutchen wouldn’t even be a question.</p>
<p>Cutch will be six months on the wrong side of 30 next April, so even with a shift to left or right field in the cards it’s unlikely he’d have a full-blown Eaton-esque renaissance. Still, playing a deeper outfield on one of Kevin Pillar’s flanks in front of a suffocating pitching staff could transform him back from historically poor liability to competent defender, which would be huge for both the Blue Jays immediate Championship aspirations and McCutchen’s future earning potential.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong>***</strong></p>
<p>Andrew McCutchen is getting older and humans tend to get slower as they get older, yet his base running numbers are puzzling even with this in mind, as he seemingly runs when he shouldn’t, and stays put when he should.</p>
<p>Known as a five-tool prospect, McCutchen stole 20-plus bases in five consecutive seasons to open his Major League career. Over the past three that figure has dropped to 18, 11, and just six last season, which was highlighted by seven caught stealing for an atrocious success rate of 46 percent.  McCutchen was never an elite base stealer; his success rate has eclipsed 80 percent just twice in eight years (2009, 2014) as he has relied more on his physical gifts than on perfectly timing the pitcher. McCutchen is clearly cognizant of his diminished speed as his overall attempt volume has decreased in each of the last four seasons, but with two first-base pickoffs and one caught stealing of third among his seven stealing outs, his ability to read pitchers hasn’t progressed quite the way you’d expect and hope for a veteran player.</p>
<p>Beyond just base stealing, McCutchen has gotten significantly worse at taking the extra base when a single or double is hit behind him. Baseball-Reference defines Extra Base Taken Percentage (XBT%) as the “percentage of times the runner advanced more than one base on a single or more than two bases on a double, when possible”, while admittedly not accounting for batted ball type or location. Basically, this measures the ability to go first-to-third on a single and first-to-home on a double. McCutchen <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/m/mccutan01-bat.shtml">took the extra base just 27 percent of the time in 2016</a>, which was down from 29 percent in 2015, 41 percent in 2014, and 64 percent (!!!) in 2013. Contextually, in any given year the league average is around 40 percent.</p>
<p>On November 5, 2014, the Pirates announced that Nick Leyva and Rick Sofield would be switching duties, with Leyva moving from first over to the third base coach duties, and Sofield vice-versa. Since the third base coach is responsible for making the call to advance runners, the change from Leyva to Sofield could potentially explain some of McCutchen’s recent inhibitions. Under Leyva the Pirates as a team took the extra base 41 and 40 percent of the time in 2013 and 2014, and remained consistent at 41 percent under Sofield’s direction in 2015. It wasn’t until 2016 that the team took a step back as a whole, falling to 35 percent despite a roster that most outside observers would consider quick.</p>
<p>That mark is actually below the 2016 Blue Jays, who managed an advancement rate of 38 percent with an offense consisting mostly of mashers in their early 30’s and a dude with one knee. While I don’t think anyone would <em>want </em>to see McCutchen try to take the extra base 60-plus percent of the time like he did as a 26-year old, there’s no reason for him to be that far below both the team and league average.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><strong>***</strong></p>
<p>In summary, Andrew McCutchen was sort of bad in 2016 and the Pirates could <em>potentially </em>be shopping him this offseason as he approaches free agency, but there are signs that he should rebound nicely moving into 2017 and 2018. While McCutchen wouldn’t address the lopsided, right-handed nature of the lineup, the Blue Jays should absolutely be interested. He would be a perfect fit and conceivably a massive defensive upgrade in in left or right field, and while he’s been mostly a number three hitter, his .381 career on-base percentage sure would look good in the leadoff position ahead of Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and (hopefully) Edwin Encarnacion and/or Jose Bautista in some configuration.</p>
<p>What would he cost the Blue Jays? While I couldn’t hazard a guess at the specifics, I’m confident that despite his down year and rising salary, there would be a long line of organizations dying to get their hands on the outfielder, so it would cost significantly more than Drew Hutchison, and you wouldn’t be getting prospects <em>back</em>, that’s for certain. The Blue Jays wouldn’t deal Aaron Sanchez or Marcus Stroman, who are expected to be rotation stalwarts in both the short and long term futures, but would the re-tooling Pirates be interested in the final two years of J.A. Happ’s contract – a pitcher whom the organization covets but fell short on re-signing last winter? What about the under-appreciated Dalton Pompey, who is seemingly and frustratingly going nowhere in Toronto? Might they be intrigued by the young arms of Sean Reid-Foley or Conner Greene, who are pushing into the upper levels of the minor leagues? What about Rowdy Tellez to offer a power jolt in place of John Jaso in the very near future?</p>
<p>All of that is without mentioning Vladimir Guerrero Jr. or Anthony Alford, <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-toronto-blue-jays-top-10-prospects/#yvgDWXIkHrBZAIPy.97">the two top prospects in the system</a> according to the recently published rankings over at Baseball America. Both of whom possess the star potential that Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins would almost certainly want to keep within the organization behind the aging offense. There are so many possible combinations of players that without a report from Jon Heyman, Ken Rosenthal, or Jeff Passan explicitly saying “The Pirates are interested in X, Y, and Z”, it’s impossible to draw something up that you could stand behind with any confidence here in the first week of November.</p>
<p>This new front office wants to build sustainably, and understandably for that very reason they value prospects and controllable talent. But, Andrew McCutchen would help the Toronto Blue Jays today and in the future. He could be traded again twelve months from now if things go sour in 2017, or given a qualifying offer twenty-four months from now if they don’t. You would have to give up a chunk of talent now, sure, but you would be getting Andrew freaking McCutchen to reinforce the last few great years of the careers of Josh Donaldson, Troy Tulowitzki, and Russell Martin – all of whom play for the Toronto Blue Jays, by the way.</p>
<p>Furthermore, acquiring McCutchen would in no way preclude the organization from using their other financial resources to re-sign Encarnacion, Bautista, or even both. You would be dramatically augmenting the present by turning first round-caliber talents Sean Reid-Foley or Conner Greene (and other stuff) into a first round pick in June 2019. The youth isn’t entirely removed from the organization; it’s simply delayed by a couple of years, and during that delay, the fans will be filling the Rogers Centre as the team looks for its third and potentially fourth consecutive playoff berths.</p>
<p>To have a sustainable winner, the farm system must be given attention and nurtured, absolutely. But in the same vein as an organization’s financial resources, there’s more than one way to use your prospects, too. Andrew McCutchen may be the perfect opportunity to massage both into a premier asset.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Charles LeClaire-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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