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		<title>Steve Pearce on Breaking Through an Early Season Slump</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/25/steve-pearce-on-breaking-through-an-early-season-slump/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 25 Apr 2017 11:02:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Evan Peaslee]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Boston Red Sox]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Hitting]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Gibbons]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rogers Centre]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10322</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[TORONTO &#8212; Baseball can be a funny game. The harder you try the more the game tends to slip away from you. The entirety of the Toronto Blue Jays roster has frustratingly dealt with this all season with the team breaking out of the gates to a dismal 5-13 record. They know they’re a good [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>TORONTO &#8212; Baseball can be a funny game. The harder you try the more the game tends to slip away from you.</p>
<p>The entirety of the Toronto Blue Jays roster has frustratingly dealt with this all season with the team breaking out of the gates to a dismal 5-13 record. They know they’re a good team, but when they press and try to overcome their slow art in a single game nothing seems to break right.</p>
<p>Few individually have felt this more than newcomer Steve Pearce. After a scorching Opening Day start where the 34-year-old got three hits and scored a run, Pearce managed to equal his first game output of three hits in his next 32 at-bats.</p>
<p>What Pearce has been trying to focus on during this rut is simple, “just getting better.”</p>
<p>“Bottom line we got to get better, individually and as a team.” Pearce said prior to the Jays’ 3-0 win over the Boston Red Sox last Wednesday night at Rogers Centre.</p>
<p>Pearce has admitted to pressing in the opening weeks of the season and trying to do too much at times. What he’s lost during that time is his feel for the game. The feel of the game coming to him instead of chasing it. Seeing the ball out of the pitcher’s hand and making solid contact on a consistent basis.</p>
<blockquote><p>“Bottom line we got to get better, individually and as a team.” &#8211; Steve Pearce</p></blockquote>
<p>As funny as it may sound, in baseball sometimes less is more. When you start to try to do too much you end up pressing and making things more complicated for yourself.</p>
<p>“That’s when everything gets tense. You can’t play the kind of game you want to play when you’re tense,” Pearce said. “The looser you are, the better you feel, the better your production’s going to be, the better you’re going to feel, the better chance you have to get a base hit.</p>
<p>“This game can move so fast. The pitchers are so good that you really have to be in the best position in order to get base hits. They’re throwing 95 mph and if you’re tense that’s going to get blown right by you. You need your body free, and you need to be able to see the ball and unload on it.</p>
<p>“You know what they say, ‘if you’re thinking, you’re stinking.’ …You got to go up there and just see the ball and hit the ball.”</p>
<p>Manager John Gibbons knows this too.</p>
<p>“Baseball’s a different sport. In other sports you can run harder, you can hit somebody harder, you can give a better effort and that can work to your benefit. (In) baseball the harder you try the worse it gets sometimes,” Gibbons said.</p>
<blockquote><p>Baseball’s a different sport. In other sports you can run harder, you can hit somebody harder, you can give a better effort and that can work to your benefit. (In) baseball the harder you try the worse it gets sometimes.” &#8211; John Gibbons</p></blockquote>
<p>For Pearce that has led to a dreadfully slow start to his season slashing a meagre .162/.205/.162. It’s not for lack of talent either as Pearce has averaged 93 games, 16 home runs, 41 RBIs with a slash line of .267/.347/.493 over the last three seasons. All spent in the AL East.</p>
<p>His familiarity of the division however has not benefitted the Lakeland, FL. native, despite all but two of Toronto’s first 15 games coming against the AL East.</p>
<p>Even left-handed pitchers, Pearce’s bread and butter, have kept his offense at bay. Pearce hit .309 with seven home runs in 81 at-bats last season against lefties, and has slashed .264/.347/.489 in his career versus southpaws, but is just 2-for-19 with eight  strikeouts against them this season.</p>
<p>The sample size is small, and the stats magnified this early in the season, but there’s no denying that the first few weeks of the season have been less than ideal for Pearce.</p>
<p>When he’s slumping Pearce relies on video, stats sheets, pitching tendencies, and any other source available to Major Leaguers these days to try and break out of it, but at the end of the day it essentially comes down to feel.</p>
<p>“It’s mostly about feel. You just got to find a feel,” Pearce said. “Your mechanics they could be on or off, but if you feel good that’s really the most important part.</p>
<p>“If you get in that box and you feel good it’s definitely a heck of a lot better than anything. You could be mechanically sound, you could have the perfect BP, the perfect cage swing, but underneath the lights it’s a completely different ball game.”</p>
<p>With three hits in his last four games, Pearce is is at his best production level since his first game as a Blue Jay. A baby step in the right direction.</p>
<p>It’s more than enough for his manager, who has full confidence in his team, and the men on it.</p>
<p>“Pearcey is going to hit,” Gibbons said. “He’s going to hit some home runs, he’s going to swing it for us pretty good.”</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Orioles 1; Donaldson Stays Hot At Camden Yard</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/29/toronto-5-baltimore-1-blue-jays-donaldson-stays-hot-at-camden-yard/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/29/toronto-5-baltimore-1-blue-jays-donaldson-stays-hot-at-camden-yard/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Aug 2016 02:11:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donalson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6086</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Jays took the series opener 5-1 against Baltimore at Camden Yards. They are now beginning to assert their dominance as the premier bird in the AL East, pushing their lead to a commanding four games over the Orioles. Hardy hit a home run to left field against Estrada in the first inning. Melvin Upton Jr. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Jays took the series opener 5-1 against Baltimore at Camden Yards. They are now beginning to assert their dominance as the premier bird in the AL East, pushing their lead to a commanding four games over the Orioles. Hardy hit a home run to left field against Estrada in the first inning. Melvin Upton Jr. had a bead on the ball and time his jump at the wall perfectly. What he did not account for was a Baltimore fan with a glove directly above him. As Upton rose to catch the ball in the stands, the fan stuck his glove out and essentially inhibited Upton&#8217;s glove from continuing it&#8217;s upward trajectory. The ball fell right into the Baltimore fan&#8217;s glove. Kudos to him for denying Upton an absolute web gem. The Jays were in a hole quickly, but it didn&#8217;t remain there for long. In the 4th, Josh Donaldson hit his 34th home run to tie the game, and Tulowitzki singled home a run for the lead later in the inning. From there on out, the Jays didn&#8217;t allow a run, and piled on three more of their own, including a Jose Bautista solo shot. A shoutout to Estrada who adapted to the Baltimore strategy and strung together seven impressive innings of work. In doing so, he cast away the doubt that was surrounding him and his performance as of late.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In a game with few runs, it is unsurprising that the top play is awarded to a swing that deposited a ball on the other side of the fence. Keeping up with his performance from Sunday&#8217;s game, Josh Donaldson continued to put the middle of the bat on the baseball. His solo home run in the 4th inning tied the game 1-1. The Jays never trailed for the remainder of the game, never allowing another Baltimore run to score. Donaldson contributed 0.126 WPA with that swing. An honorable mention goes to Jose Bautista for his solo home run in the 6th inning. He compiled 0.120 WPA while increasing his home run total to 16 on the season.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the 7th inning, with the Orioles trailing by two runs; Matt Wieters stepped to the plate and hit a rocket. Unfortunately for him, it was straight into the waiting mitt of first baseman &#8220;Smoaky Bear&#8221;. Mark Trumbo, who was on first, took a surprising step farther off the bag which made it an extremely clear cut double play. Even if Trumbo broke back immediately, he probably didn&#8217;t have a chance to reach the bag before Smoak. Wieters gets credit for a hard hit, worst play of the game. He detracted 0.133 WPA from his team&#8217;s chance to win the game. That&#8217;s a tough way to pick up this award, Matt.</p>
<h3>Estrada Returns To Form</h3>
<p>Going into this start, there was general trepidation surrounding Marco Estrada place amongst the starting rotation. In his last two starts, he had failed to make it past the 5th inning in either occasion. All told, he allowed 11 earned runs in only 9.0 innings of work. This late into the season, Estrada was able to increase his ERA from 2.95 to 3.47; a remarkable feat for starts number 21 and 22. However, Marco reverted to his previous form tonight, going seven innings, allowing only four hits which amounted to only one run.</p>
<p>I thought the Orioles hitters were sitting on his change up early on in the game. This is a trend that appeared evident in the last two starts when Estrada struggled. In about the third inning, it appeared that Martin and Marco altered the gameplan. They began throwing more curveballs early in the count and jamming righties with fastballs. After they had established the curve, and to a certain degree, the cutter; Estrada began to toss in more change ups once again. The ability to pick up on what hitters are looking for and adjust mid-game is truly an impressive feat. With Marco&#8217;s philosophy of not shaking off the catcher, Martin likely deserves the credit here; but in any event, the Orioles hitters struggled between innings three and seven, accumulating only one hit.</p>
<h3>MVP.</h3>
<p>There isn&#8217;t much new to say about Josh Donaldson. The man is in another realm right now. In the first inning, he tagged a ball to dead center field that required an impressive catch by Nolan Reimold to prevent extra bases. Reimold found himself flat on his back after his encounter with the wall. Donaldson wasn&#8217;t to be denied. In the 4th inning, Josh did what Josh does best, bring the Jays back to square one with one crack of the bat.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>This was only the opener and the Jays are in for two more thrillers. J.A. Happ takes the mound for the Blue Birds tomorrow night, with Aaron Sanchez coming back up from Dunedin on Wednesday. Their counterparts are <del>recently demoted</del> Ubaldo Jimenez and Yovani Gallardo respectively.</p>
<p>Lead Photo credit &#8211; <em>Evan Habeeb</em>-<strong>USA TODAY Sports</strong></p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>How the Jays Position Players Compare to the AL East</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/01/comparing-the-al-east-position-players/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 01 Apr 2016 13:18:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jenn Smith]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Offense]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[PECOTA]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=909</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There is no doubt that the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays are a better team than they were at the start of last season. Despite winning the AL East by six games with a record of 93-69 and leading the majors in runs scored, it wasn’t until the second half of the season after the Jays [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There is no doubt that the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays are a better team than they were at the start of last season. Despite winning the AL East by six games with a record of 93-69 and leading the majors in runs scored, it wasn’t until the second half of the season after the Jays had acquired Troy Tulowitzki and David Price that they lived up to their potential. Up until that point, they had underachieved &#8211; as evidenced by their Pythagorean record of 102-60. Though there is no doubt that adding an ace to their rotation helped propel the Jays to their first playoff berth in 22 years, it was their near-historic offense that made them the team to beat. But this is 2016, so with the regular season set to begin this Sunday and the Jays poised to defend their championship title, let’s take a look at how their lineup stacks up against the rest of the American League East, broken down by position.</p>
<p><em>Note: the following 2016 projections are based on PECOTA and are current as of April 1st. A glossary of pertinent terms are included at the end of this article.</em></p>
<p><strong>First Base:</strong> Chris Davis (BAL), Hanley Ramirez (BOS), Mark Teixeira (NYY), Logan Morrison (TB), Chris Colabello (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="83"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="37"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Davis</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="51">.255</td>
<td width="37">83</td>
<td width="42">37</td>
<td width="45">100</td>
<td width="41">3</td>
<td width="51">.333</td>
<td width="50">.518</td>
<td width="49">.296</td>
<td width="60">27.6</td>
<td width="63">2.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Ramirez</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.272</td>
<td width="37">71</td>
<td width="42">20</td>
<td width="45">73</td>
<td width="41">13</td>
<td width="51">.339</td>
<td width="50">.454</td>
<td width="49">.280</td>
<td width="60">17.2</td>
<td width="63">1.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Teixeira</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="51">.236</td>
<td width="37">69</td>
<td width="42">27</td>
<td width="45">79</td>
<td width="41">2</td>
<td width="51">.328</td>
<td width="50">.452</td>
<td width="49">.276</td>
<td width="60">13.6</td>
<td width="63">1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Morrison</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="51">.242</td>
<td width="37">64</td>
<td width="42">19</td>
<td width="45">69</td>
<td width="41">6</td>
<td width="51">.318</td>
<td width="50">.417</td>
<td width="49">.268</td>
<td width="60">8.7</td>
<td width="63">0.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Colabello</td>
<td width="52">60</td>
<td width="51">.261</td>
<td width="37">61</td>
<td width="42">22</td>
<td width="45">72</td>
<td width="41">2</td>
<td width="51">.322</td>
<td width="50">.453</td>
<td width="49">.276</td>
<td width="60">16.0</td>
<td width="63">1.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Waiver claim Chris Colabello surprised everyone with his breakout 2015 season, posting career highs in nearly every offensive category while offering decent defence at first. Though I expect some regression, I don’t think his numbers last year were a fluke and it would not surprise me if he plays first base more than 60% of the time. Slugger Chris Davis is a standout not only for his homerun power (he hit 47 last season), but also because while is walk ratio is great, his strikeout ratio is quite awful. Though he has a significantly higher VORP than the other four first basement, his higher WARP is negligible in comparison to the others, with the exception of Logan Morrison, who is likely to replace James Loney as the starting first baseman (Had Loney remained with the Rays, he would have been the only starting position player in the AL East with a negative projected VORP and WARP). Ramirez was an absolute bust last season for the Red Sox, playing in just 105 games due to a shoulder injury and posting the worst defensive rating among left fielders. It will be interesting to see if he can experience a bit of a renaissance despite having never played first base.</p>
<p><strong>Second Base:</strong> Jonathan Schoop (BAL), Dustin Pedroia (BOS), Starlin Castro (NYY), Logan Forsythe (TB), Ryan Goins (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="77"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="36"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="43"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Schoop</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="52">.248</td>
<td width="36">58</td>
<td width="43">22</td>
<td width="46">67</td>
<td width="42">2</td>
<td width="52">.281</td>
<td width="50">.431</td>
<td width="50">.251</td>
<td width="60">9.5</td>
<td width="63">1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Pedroia</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="52">.288</td>
<td width="36">75</td>
<td width="43">12</td>
<td width="46">58</td>
<td width="42">9</td>
<td width="52">.354</td>
<td width="50">.418</td>
<td width="50">.274</td>
<td width="60">26.5</td>
<td width="63">3.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Castro</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="52">.274</td>
<td width="36">49</td>
<td width="43">11</td>
<td width="46">49</td>
<td width="42">6</td>
<td width="52">.313</td>
<td width="50">.411</td>
<td width="50">.259</td>
<td width="60">12.3</td>
<td width="63">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Forsythe</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="52">.250</td>
<td width="36">73</td>
<td width="43">14</td>
<td width="46">58</td>
<td width="42">8</td>
<td width="52">.327</td>
<td width="50">.390</td>
<td width="50">.265</td>
<td width="60">19.8</td>
<td width="63">2.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="77">Goins*</td>
<td width="52">25</td>
<td width="52">.241</td>
<td width="36">28</td>
<td width="43">4</td>
<td width="46">29</td>
<td width="42">2</td>
<td width="52">.282</td>
<td width="50">.340</td>
<td width="50">.227</td>
<td width="60">0.2</td>
<td width="63">0.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Dustin Pedroia is the only true star second baseman in the AL East, particularly for his defensive skills. The main barrier to his ability to contribute to the Sox this season is his health – he missed 69 games last season due to injuries. Castro was the one of the only notable offseason acquisitions made by the Yankees, brought over in a trade from the Chicago Cubs to replace Stephen Drew, who left the team as a free agent. Castro began playing second base late last season after losing his job as the everyday short stop due to poor offensive performance. His projected numbers would represent an upswing in his offense over last year. It is to be expected that Ryan Goins would have the lowest projections among second basemen given that he is, essentially, a replacement-level player. Though he is projected to contribute little in terms of runs scored or additional wins, his true value is his defensive prowess which, in combination with Tulowitzki at short, should save the Jays’ pitching staff plenty of runs.</p>
<p><em>*PECOTA projections list Goins as second on the Jays’ second base depth chart behind Devon Travis, with Travis starting at 2B 65% of the time. Projections have not been adjusted to account for the greater percentage of plate appearances that Goins will have due to Travis beginning the season on the DL.</em></p>
<p><strong>Third Base:</strong> Manny Machado (BAL), Travis Shaw (BOS), Chase Headley (NYY), Evan Longoria (TB), Josh Donaldson (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="91"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="32"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="40"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Machado</td>
<td width="51">85</td>
<td width="51">.280</td>
<td width="32">84</td>
<td width="42">22</td>
<td width="45">74</td>
<td width="40">11</td>
<td width="51">.329</td>
<td width="49">.462</td>
<td width="48">.278</td>
<td width="60">26.2</td>
<td width="63">5.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Shaw**</td>
<td width="51">25</td>
<td width="51">.246</td>
<td width="32">41</td>
<td width="42">13</td>
<td width="45">47</td>
<td width="40">1</td>
<td width="51">.318</td>
<td width="49">.417</td>
<td width="48">.257</td>
<td width="60">4.7</td>
<td width="63">0.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Headley</td>
<td width="51">85</td>
<td width="51">258</td>
<td width="32">66</td>
<td width="42">15</td>
<td width="45">63</td>
<td width="40">5</td>
<td width="51">.340</td>
<td width="49">.405</td>
<td width="48">.268</td>
<td width="60">16.0</td>
<td width="63">1.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Longoria</td>
<td width="51">90</td>
<td width="51">.259</td>
<td width="32">77</td>
<td width="42">26</td>
<td width="45">87</td>
<td width="40">3</td>
<td width="51">.334</td>
<td width="49">.449</td>
<td width="48">.285</td>
<td width="60">30.1</td>
<td width="63">4.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="91">Donaldson</td>
<td width="51">90</td>
<td width="51">.276</td>
<td width="32">97</td>
<td width="42">30</td>
<td width="45">90</td>
<td width="40">6</td>
<td width="51">.352</td>
<td width="49">.495</td>
<td width="48">.300</td>
<td width="60">40.8</td>
<td width="63">5.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Third base is truly the premier position in the AL East, led by reigning MVP Josh Donaldson and All-Star Manny Machado. While both have similar WARP contributions, Donaldson by far outperforms Machado in terms of runs contributed – an important distinction given that the Jays rely on their offense to win games and Donaldson sees a lot of good pitches to hit given that Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion hit behind him. Also, PECOTA tends to be lower on Donaldson due to his poor early career performances. Once one of the best third basemen in the game, 30 year old Evan Longoria has shown signs of defensive decline over the past two seasons, though he should still provide value on defense. In a surprise move on Thursday, the Boston Red Sox announced that Travis Shaw &#8211; not Pablo Sandoval &#8211; would be their starting third baseman. The move was unexpected, given the Sox&#8217;s financial commitment to Sandoval, but Shaw has outperformed him this spring and is a better defensive option. It is also interesting to note that Machado was the only player in baseball to appear in all 162 games last season.</p>
<p><em>**PECOTA has not yet been updated to reflect the fact that Travis Shaw won the starting job at third base over Pablo Sandoval and thus should have a higher PT%.</em></p>
<p><strong>Short Stop:</strong> J.J. Hardy (BAL), Xander Bogaerts (BOS), Didi Gregorius (NYY), Brad Miller (TB), Troy Tulowitzki (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="85"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="33"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="43"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Hardy</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.249</td>
<td width="33">54</td>
<td width="43">16</td>
<td width="45">59</td>
<td width="41">0</td>
<td width="51">.287</td>
<td width="50">.391</td>
<td width="49">.241</td>
<td width="60">5.5</td>
<td width="63">0.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Bogaerts</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.282</td>
<td width="33">65</td>
<td width="43">13</td>
<td width="45">69</td>
<td width="41">6</td>
<td width="51">.334</td>
<td width="50">.414</td>
<td width="49">.266</td>
<td width="60">27.6</td>
<td width="63">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Gregorius</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.253</td>
<td width="33">56</td>
<td width="43">11</td>
<td width="45">55</td>
<td width="41">4</td>
<td width="51">.309</td>
<td width="50">.380</td>
<td width="49">.249</td>
<td width="60">12.7</td>
<td width="63">1.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Miller</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="51">.257</td>
<td width="33">54</td>
<td width="43">13</td>
<td width="45">51</td>
<td width="41">9</td>
<td width="51">.323</td>
<td width="50">.414</td>
<td width="49">.269</td>
<td width="60">19.7</td>
<td width="63">2.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="85">Tulowitzki</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="51">.276</td>
<td width="33">80</td>
<td width="43">24</td>
<td width="45">74</td>
<td width="41">1</td>
<td width="51">.349</td>
<td width="50">.478</td>
<td width="49">.292</td>
<td width="60">36.7</td>
<td width="63">4.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>There is no doubt that Troy Tulowitzki is one of the premier players in the game today, and Jays’ fans have yet to fully witness his true talent. After being traded to Toronto on July 28<sup>th</sup>, he played in just 41 games after suffering a cracked shoulder blade in mid-September and, though that was a freak accident, staying healthy has always been a concern for Tulowitzki. A huge defensive upgrade over his predecessor at the position, his offensive production with the Jays represented a slump in comparison to his career numbers, He admitted at the end of the season that he had not yet felt comfortable with his new surroundings. PECOTA projects him to return to form this season – his 36.7 projected VORP is fourth highest among AL East position players (with Bautista and Donaldson sitting in first and second, respectively). Though the others really don’t come close to Tulo&#8217;s offense, Xander Bogaerts is one of the most exciting young players in the league, finishing second to Miguel Cabrera for the AL batting title and being awarded the Silver Slugger at his position. His projected PECOTA stats have him returning to earth just a little after his breakout 2015 season.</p>
<p><strong>Left Field: </strong>Joey Rickard (BAL), Brock Holt (BOS), Brett Gardner (NYY), Desmond Jennings (TB), Michael Saunders (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="83"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="43"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Rickard***</td>
<td width="52">30</td>
<td width="51">.245</td>
<td width="34">26</td>
<td width="43">4</td>
<td width="46">21</td>
<td width="42">7</td>
<td width="51">.329</td>
<td width="50">.361</td>
<td width="49">.250</td>
<td width="60">4.1</td>
<td width="63">0.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Holt****</td>
<td width="52">25</td>
<td width="51">.279</td>
<td width="34">46</td>
<td width="43">4</td>
<td width="46">39</td>
<td width="42">9</td>
<td width="51">.332</td>
<td width="50">.379</td>
<td width="49">.252</td>
<td width="60">11.1</td>
<td width="63">1.2</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Gardner</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.256</td>
<td width="34">70</td>
<td width="43">10</td>
<td width="46">50</td>
<td width="42">19</td>
<td width="51">.328</td>
<td width="50">.389</td>
<td width="49">.256</td>
<td width="60">15.7</td>
<td width="63">1.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Jennings</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.248</td>
<td width="34">53</td>
<td width="43">10</td>
<td width="46">45</td>
<td width="42">16</td>
<td width="51">.322</td>
<td width="50">.394</td>
<td width="49">.263</td>
<td width="60">15.0</td>
<td width="63">1.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Saunders</td>
<td width="52">55</td>
<td width="51">.240</td>
<td width="34">54</td>
<td width="43">13</td>
<td width="46">54</td>
<td width="42">10</td>
<td width="51">.319</td>
<td width="50">.401</td>
<td width="49">.261</td>
<td width="60">13.5</td>
<td width="63">0.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Left field is not exactly a position of offensive prowess, and those who play the position in the AL East are relatively evenly matched. Michael Saunders was acquired in a trade from the Seattle Mariners to replace free agent Melky Cabrera, but missed all but nine games of the 2015 season due to injury. Jays’ fans who felt angst over the loss of Ben Revere should note that while Saunders’ projected numbers are not stellar, Revere posted a 10.9 VORP and 0.4 WARP with Toronto last season. Desmond Jennings also missed most of the 2015 season due to a knee injury and is a question mark in terms of how many games he will be able to play this season. Hyun-Soo Kim was expected to make his major league debut this April, having played for the KBO League in South Korea where he was a three-time Golden Glove winner and the 2008 batting champion. However, after struggling this spring, it was announced on Thursday that Kim would not make the Orioles&#8217; Opening Day roster, but had refused a minor league assignment. Meanwhile, it is likely that Rule 5 draft pick Joey Rickard will take his spot in the lineup after hitting .390/.463/.576 with a 1.039 OPS in 67 plate appearances. After defecting from Cuba, Rusney Castillo was signed by Boston in 2014 for $72.5 million over seven years, creating much hype to which he has yet to live up. As a result, he has lost the starter&#8217;s job to utility man Brock Holt. Holt doesn&#8217;t hit for power, but he does get his bat on the ball with regularity. Brett Gardner, while still a solid player on both sides of the ball, should show some age-related decline, particularly in terms of his speed.</p>
<p><em>***PECOTA has have not yet been updated to reflect the fact that Rickard will likely play LF more than 30% of the time now that Kim is no longer being considered for the job.</em></p>
<p>****<em>PECOTA</em> has<em> not yet been updated to reflect the fact that Holt has won the starting LF position over Rusney Castillo.</em></p>
<p><strong>Centre Field:</strong> Adam Jones (BAL), Jackie Bradley (BOS), Jacoby Ellsbury (NYY), Kevin Kiermaier (TB), Kevin Pillar (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="83"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Jones</td>
<td width="52">95</td>
<td width="51">.277</td>
<td width="34">93</td>
<td width="42">30</td>
<td width="46">88</td>
<td width="41">8</td>
<td width="51">.314</td>
<td width="50">.475</td>
<td width="49">.277</td>
<td width="60">30.0</td>
<td width="63">2.3</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Bradley</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.245</td>
<td width="34">56</td>
<td width="42">13</td>
<td width="46">54</td>
<td width="41">7</td>
<td width="51">.317</td>
<td width="50">.400</td>
<td width="49">.254</td>
<td width="60">9.1</td>
<td width="63">1.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Ellsbury</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="51">.274</td>
<td width="34">84</td>
<td width="42">15</td>
<td width="46">58</td>
<td width="41">33</td>
<td width="51">.330</td>
<td width="50">.413</td>
<td width="49">.265</td>
<td width="60">20.4</td>
<td width="63">2.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Kiermaier</td>
<td width="52">85</td>
<td width="51">.265</td>
<td width="34">76</td>
<td width="42">13</td>
<td width="46">59</td>
<td width="41">19</td>
<td width="51">.309</td>
<td width="50">.416</td>
<td width="49">.263</td>
<td width="60">18.5</td>
<td width="63">5.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="83">Pillar</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="51">.273</td>
<td width="34">62</td>
<td width="42">12</td>
<td width="46">55</td>
<td width="41">19</td>
<td width="51">.307</td>
<td width="50">.414</td>
<td width="49">.259</td>
<td width="60">15.5</td>
<td width="63">2.2</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The AL East features a very strong contingency of center fielders, led by the stellar defense and speed of Kevin Kiermaier, who won the Gold Glove in 2015 over Toronto&#8217;s Kevin Pillar. Last season was something of a coming-out party for Pillar, who not only flashed the leather in the field, but performed better than expected offensively, batting .278/.314/.399 with a 22.3 VORP and 3.8 WARP. Though his primary value also lies in his defense and speed, Pillar is slated to be the leadoff hitter despite a less than impressive OBP. Of the five, only Adam Jones hits for power, though his tendency to be a free-swinger along with possible age-related decline led to a career low in batting average last season. Jacoby Ellsbury is also in danger of showing his age, batting just .244 after returning from injury last season. Jackie Bradley was called up last season to replace an injured Hanley Ramirez and despite going on a tear in August, batting .354/.429/.734 with an OBP of 1.163, is unlikely to provide much offensive value over the course of the 2016 season.</p>
<p><strong>Right Field:</strong> Mark Trumbo (BAL), Mookie Betts (BOS), Carlos Beltran (NYY), Steven Souza (TB), Jose Bautista (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="86"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="34"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="45"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="41"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="51"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Trumbo</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.252</td>
<td width="34">71</td>
<td width="42">30</td>
<td width="45">87</td>
<td width="41">2</td>
<td width="51">.303</td>
<td width="50">.467</td>
<td width="49">.271</td>
<td width="60">15.6</td>
<td width="63">0.5</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Betts</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="51">.297</td>
<td width="34">92</td>
<td width="42">18</td>
<td width="45">71</td>
<td width="41">25</td>
<td width="51">.360</td>
<td width="50">.470</td>
<td width="49">.292</td>
<td width="60">38.7</td>
<td width="63">4.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Beltran</td>
<td width="52">60</td>
<td width="51">.258</td>
<td width="34">61</td>
<td width="42">20</td>
<td width="45">70</td>
<td width="41">3</td>
<td width="51">.322</td>
<td width="50">.446</td>
<td width="49">.270</td>
<td width="60">14.9</td>
<td width="63">0.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Souza</td>
<td width="52">65</td>
<td width="51">.250</td>
<td width="34">72</td>
<td width="42">21</td>
<td width="45">69</td>
<td width="41">19</td>
<td width="51">.335</td>
<td width="50">.439</td>
<td width="49">.283</td>
<td width="60">25.6</td>
<td width="63">2.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="86">Bautista</td>
<td width="52">70</td>
<td width="51">.262</td>
<td width="34">96</td>
<td width="42">36</td>
<td width="45">103</td>
<td width="41">7</td>
<td width="51">.379</td>
<td width="50">.510</td>
<td width="49">.316</td>
<td width="60">47.3</td>
<td width="63">4.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>It should come as no surprise that Jose Bautista has the highest projected offensive numbers among the five right fielders – in fact, he has the highest VORP of any player in the AL East. Minor injuries notwithstanding, he has yet to show age-related decline. Instead, his plate discipline and power make him one of the most feared hitters in baseball. Combine that with the fact that this is his free agent year and that there may be no one more motivated to return to the playoffs, and one can expect Bautista to have another tremendous season. The only other noteworthy right fielder is the youngster Mookie Betts who, in his first full major league season last year, hit .291/.341/.479 with a 40.4 VORP and 5.5 WARP. Expect him to shine again this season. Souza was the centerpiece of the three way deal that brought Trea Turner and Joe Ross to Washington and Wil Myers to San Diego, but disappointed in his first season in Tampa. Trumbo has health concerns, and Beltran turns 39 in April, making both of them questionable in terms of their potential offensive production.</p>
<p><strong>Catcher:</strong> Matt Wieters (BAL), Blake Swihart (BOS), Brian McCann (NYY), Hank Conger (TB), Russell Martin (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="74"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="38"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="44"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="46"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="42"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="52"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="62"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">Wieters</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="52">.254</td>
<td width="38">55</td>
<td width="44">18</td>
<td width="46">64</td>
<td width="42">1</td>
<td width="52">.315</td>
<td width="50">.432</td>
<td width="50">.262</td>
<td width="60">15.8</td>
<td width="62">0.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">Swihart</td>
<td width="52">75</td>
<td width="52">.265</td>
<td width="38">49</td>
<td width="44">9</td>
<td width="46">48</td>
<td width="42">5</td>
<td width="52">.310</td>
<td width="50">.393</td>
<td width="50">.248</td>
<td width="60">11.0</td>
<td width="62">1.0</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">McCann</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="52">.243</td>
<td width="38">68</td>
<td width="44">26</td>
<td width="46">80</td>
<td width="42">0</td>
<td width="52">.315</td>
<td width="50">.436</td>
<td width="50">.265</td>
<td width="60">17.1</td>
<td width="62">2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">Conger</td>
<td width="52">55</td>
<td width="52">.232</td>
<td width="38">37</td>
<td width="44">11</td>
<td width="46">39</td>
<td width="42">1</td>
<td width="52">.299</td>
<td width="50">.384</td>
<td width="50">.249</td>
<td width="60">6.3</td>
<td width="62">2.9</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="74">Martin</td>
<td width="52">80</td>
<td width="52">.236</td>
<td width="38">66</td>
<td width="44">19</td>
<td width="46">63</td>
<td width="42">6</td>
<td width="52">.329</td>
<td width="50">.405</td>
<td width="50">.269</td>
<td width="60">21.0</td>
<td width="62">4.4</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>In his first full season with the Blue Jays, Russell Martin hit a career high 23 home runs despite a late-season slump. Those struggles were due to nagging injuries that were likely related to the difficult physical task of catching R.A. Dickey’s knuckleball. Having Josh Thole start the season with the big club ought to reduce the wear and tear on Martin’s body. He is similar to Brian McCann in that both provide pop at the plate but a low batting average, and both are in their thirties. Hank Conger is an interesting case in that he is one of the best pitch framers in the game but is absolutely terrible at throwing out base runners – the worst amongst all MLB catchers. Matt Wieters underwent Tommy John surgery in 2014 and played just 75 games for the Orioles last season, with a VORP of just 8.0, and should be average at the plate this season. Blake Swihart made his major league debut last season after injuries sidelined both Christian Vazquez and Ryan Hanigan. He is projected to experience an uptick in offensive production this season, but should he falter, he could lose his everyday status to Vasquez.</p>
<p><strong>DH:</strong> Pedro Alvarez (BAL), David Ortiz (BOS), Alex Rodriguez (NYY), Corey Dickerson (TB), Edwin Encarnacion (TOR)</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="103"><strong>Player</strong></td>
<td width="50"><strong>PT%</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>AVG</strong></td>
<td width="32"><strong>R</strong></td>
<td width="40"><strong>HR</strong></td>
<td width="43"><strong>RBI</strong></td>
<td width="38"><strong>SB</strong></td>
<td width="49"><strong>OBP</strong></td>
<td width="48"><strong>SLG</strong></td>
<td width="47"><strong>TAV</strong></td>
<td width="60"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="63"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Alvarez</td>
<td width="50">65</td>
<td width="49">.231</td>
<td width="32">54</td>
<td width="40">22</td>
<td width="43">63</td>
<td width="38">3</td>
<td width="49">.305</td>
<td width="48">.445</td>
<td width="47">.263</td>
<td width="60">6.4</td>
<td width="63">0.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Ortiz</td>
<td width="50">85</td>
<td width="49">.276</td>
<td width="32">82</td>
<td width="40">30</td>
<td width="43">94</td>
<td width="38">1</td>
<td width="49">.361</td>
<td width="48">.508</td>
<td width="47">.299</td>
<td width="60">25.9</td>
<td width="63">2.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Rodriguez</td>
<td width="50">80</td>
<td width="49">.243</td>
<td width="32">70</td>
<td width="40">22</td>
<td width="43">74</td>
<td width="38">6</td>
<td width="49">.333</td>
<td width="48">.417</td>
<td width="47">.268</td>
<td width="60">10.3</td>
<td width="63">1.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Dickerson</td>
<td width="50">70</td>
<td width="49">.274</td>
<td width="32">70</td>
<td width="40">22</td>
<td width="43">81</td>
<td width="38">7</td>
<td width="49">.322</td>
<td width="48">.474</td>
<td width="47">.286</td>
<td width="60">22.4</td>
<td width="63">2.4</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="103">Encarnacion</td>
<td width="50">80</td>
<td width="49">.267</td>
<td width="32">89</td>
<td width="40">34</td>
<td width="43">101</td>
<td width="38">5</td>
<td width="49">.353</td>
<td width="48">.505</td>
<td width="47">.303</td>
<td width="60">34.8</td>
<td width="63">3.7</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>Both Encarnacion and Ortiz have something to prove this season. Encarnacion is in his free agent year and will want to perform well – and stay healthy – in order to negotiate the best possible final contract of his career. Ortiz is on the other end of the spectrim, as he is retiring at the end of the season. Still, he would love nothing more than to finish his career as AL East champ. Though neither are the most valuable to their team in terms of additional wins, their bats contribute significantly to the offense, which is exactly what you’d expect from a designated hitter. Neither of the other three should factor into their teams’ potential success to any significant degree, though it will be quite interesting to see which Alex Rodriguez show up. Now that he is yet another year older, will it be the one who hit .278/.382/.515 the first half of the season or the one who posted a measly .216/.324/.448 during the second half?</p>
<p><strong>Conclusion</strong></p>
<p>Now that we’ve broken down the projected PECOTA statistics for every member of the starting lineup of the five American League East teams by position, let’s take a quick look at the collective projected VORP and WARP for each team.</p>
<table>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td width="208"><strong>Team</strong></td>
<td width="208"><strong>VORP</strong></td>
<td width="208"><strong>WARP</strong></td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">Baltimore Orioles</td>
<td width="208">140.7</td>
<td width="208">12.7</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">Boston Red Sox</td>
<td width="208">171.8</td>
<td width="208">19.1</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">New York Yankees</td>
<td width="208">133.0</td>
<td width="208">15.6</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">Tampa Bay Rays</td>
<td width="208">166.1</td>
<td width="208">23.8</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td width="208">Toronto Blue Jays</td>
<td width="208">225.8</td>
<td width="208">27.1</td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p>The numbers don&#8217;t lie &#8211; the offensive juggernaut that is the Toronto Blue Jays starting lineup leads the AL East in projected VORP &#8211; by a huge margin &#8211;  and WARP, suggesting that they will once again hit and field their way to wins.  As long as the pitching doesn&#8217;t implode and the lineup remains relatively healthy, the Jays should be in the hunt &#8211; and, dare I say, the favourites &#8211; to defend their division crown.</p>
<p><strong>Glossary of Terms:</strong></p>
<p><strong>PECOTA</strong>: Player Empirical Comparison and Optimization Test Algorithm is Baseball Prospectus’ system to predict player performance based on comparison with historical player-seasons.</p>
<p><strong>TA<sub>V</sub>: </strong>True Average includes factors not considered in other metrics, such as reaching base on error and situational hitting, and adjusts for ballparks and league quality. The baseline for an average player represents what a typical player would do if given similar opportunities.</p>
<p><strong>VORP:</strong> Value Over Replacement Player represents the number of runs contributed beyond a replacement level player at the same position in the same number of plate appearances.</p>
<p><strong>WARP:</strong> Wins Above Replacement Player represents the number of wins a particular player contributes to his team compared to a replacement player from the minor leagues at the same position.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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