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	<title>Toronto &#187; Aaron Loup</title>
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		<title>Aaron Loup Probably Deserved Better</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/17/aaron-loup-mightve-deserved-better/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/08/17/aaron-loup-mightve-deserved-better/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 17 Aug 2018 10:30:34 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16582</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On July 31, the Blue Jays traded Aaron Loup to the Phillies for Jacob Waguespack. A simple breakdown of the deal would tell you that Waguespack is a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher with impressive strikeout numbers in the minors. He was originally drafted in the 37th round out of high school by the Pirates back in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On July 31, the Blue Jays traded Aaron Loup to the Phillies for Jacob Waguespack.</p>
<p>A simple breakdown of the deal would tell you that Waguespack is a 24-year-old right-handed pitcher with impressive strikeout numbers in the minors. He was originally drafted in the 37<sup>th</sup> round out of high school by the Pirates back in 2012. He didn’t sign, opting instead to play college ball at Ole Miss before latching on with the Phillies as a free agent after his junior season. He was a nondescript prospect until ratcheting up his fastball velocity in 2017 and moving into the starting rotation. There are command issues (3.53 BB/9 in his minor league career), but Waguespack has racked up 312 strikeouts and surrendered just 12 home runs in 303 1/3 innings over four years in the minors. Baseball America put him at No. 29 in their ranking of Philadelphia’s top prospects after 2017.</p>
<p>It would also tell you that Loup was the longest-tenured Blue Jay at the time of his departure, and that he left the organization with a 3.47 ERA, 297 strikeouts and 98 walks in 318 2/3 innings, while currently posting the best strikeout rate of his career. Loup also leaves the Blue Jays with the third-most innings pitched in team history among those who have never started a game. He accumulated 0.4 WARP over the course of his Blue Jays career, with two good seasons, one bad, and three that were essentially replacement level. Those wild swings feel about right, but that final line doesn’t tell the story of Aaron Loup. For a player whose body of work looks alright, Loup’s always held a strange place in the hearts and minds of fans.</p>
<p>Loup&#8217;s time with the team would grade out somewhere on the spectrum between average and good. That&#8217;s probably not the evaluation that anyone would give you off the top of their head when prompted. Over time, he more or less faded into the background when he wasn’t drawing barbs from the peanut gallery. Despite the overall quality of his work, he still managed to create a lot of hand-wringing among the fanbase. No matter how well he was pitching – how many scoreless innings he had strung together, how many runners he stranded – Loup’s presence inspired a lot of collar-tugging and had a way of injecting nervous energy into the game even when none was needed. And yes, the hit batters, the four-pitch walks and the declining effectiveness against lefties can&#8217;t be ignored. There were plenty of times where he was catching bad breaks or just being flat out ineffective &#8212; that&#8217;s true of any baseball player. For Loup, though, they seemed to stick to him longer than anyone else.</p>
<p>Scrolling through Twitter mentions isn’t the best judge of overall sentiment, but it always seemed that people were quicker to go negative when Loup was in the game. Looking at his mentions from May was particularly revealing. Loup surrendered two runs on May 2, his first game of the month. Those would be the only runs he’d give up until the calendar turned to June. Even as the number of clean innings mounted, though, most tweets that featured his name either discounted his work as low-leverage, or framed them as an indictment of the team overall – the “When Aaron Loup is your third-best pitcher something’s gone wrong” type of take. He closed the month with nine straight hitless outings, yet didn’t seem to get any slack until the final week of May: the thankless life of a middle reliever.</p>
<p>The same Twitter exercise repeated for Ryan Tepera, who blew two saves and posted a 4.73 ERA in May, yielded far more forgiving results. Again, there’s plenty of selection bias in that exercise, but it’s illustrative of Loup’s perception. Once he was bad for a bit, he could never seem to shake the reputation.</p>
<p>Think of the main characters on the 2015 team that rejuvenated baseball in Toronto. Bautista, Donaldson, Encarnacion, Estrada, Price, Tulowitzki, Martin. Keep going. Dip into the lower tier guys like Goins, Colabello, Revere, Lowe. Think about how many are gone. Think about how far down the roster you’ll need to go before you remember that Loup was on that team. It didn’t help that it was his worst year ever at that point, as he posted a 4.46 ERA while surrendering six home runs in only 42 1/3 innings. He posted a BABIP of .339, an insane HR/FB rate of 20.7% and surrendered an Infield Hit rate of 13.0%. Among the 370 pitchers who logged more than 40 innings that season, Loup ranked 340<sup>th</sup>, 365<sup>th</sup> and 363<sup>rd</sup> in those categories, respectively. After three solid campaigns, the wheels seemed to have fallen off, though not nearly to the extent that he might’ve deserved.</p>
<p>Things changed dramatically when Loup needed to leave the team in the middle of both the ALDS and ALCS when his wife Leighann’s water broke 26 weeks into term. Suddenly, the guy many dreaded to see on the mound was in high demand. Loup was needed to combat Kansas City’s left-handed hitters as the only southpaw remaining in the bullpen after Brett Cecil tore his calf picking off Mike Napoli in the ALDS. That’s the speed demon Mike Napoli who stole 39 bases in 1,392 career games. Of course it would be a fluke injury on a fluke sequence that pressed Loup into the spotlight, and of course it happened in the instant when personal matters rendered baseball absolutely irrelevant.</p>
<p>It’s been pretty well established that Loup had some rotten outcomes over these last few years, as most of his stat profile suggested that he was getting roughed up on some bad luck and happenstance. It was death by a thousand dinks and dunks. Loup’s BABIPs over the last four years read like a series of pitcher’s nightmares: .339, .342, .340 and somehow .389 this season. That puts him 388<sup>th</sup> out of 392 pitchers who have logged 30 or more innings in 2018. When he checked in, you knew that if a ground ball could squeak through the infield or a pop fly could sink <em>just</em> fast enough, it would be bound to happen. Even as metrics improve and we’ve been able to parse out the substantial takeaways from the noise, Loup and his obvious set of bad-luck numbers could never quite escape their specter.</p>
<p>The trade wasn’t surprising given Toronto’s place in the standings and Loup’s status as a pending free agent. Still, it felt a bit odd to look at the roster on August 1<sup>st</sup> and not see Loup’s name &#8212; even though he’s the guy that nobody seemed to remember until he was already jogging to the mound. He was around for the days when Brett Lawrie, JP Arencibia and Colby Rasmus had the makings of a core, with Henderson Alvarez, Drew Hutchison and Kyle Drabek in the rotation. He was around for the excitement and subsequent letdowns of 2013 and 2014, and of course the playoff runs of the two seasons that followed. He ended up just one year short of being the bridge from Brett Lawrie to the Vlad Jr. Era. And he was a constant part of perhaps the most compelling little run in franchise history, even if it wasn’t the most decorated. Loup was always just sort of <em>there</em>, never really standing out aside from when he was catching flak.</p>
<p>There are many roads to the same destination. The fact that Loup ended up posting numbers that were so ordinary in the aggregate belies his unique standing with the fanbase and his role in one of the most significant stretches in the team’s existence. Loup was a fascinating case of the “what have you done for me lately” attitude that dominates public perception in sports, and stretched the limits of what “lately” meant when fan frustration needed an easy target. His story beckoned for a redemption that never came. Time is likely to forget Loup’s tenure with the Jays, as his run was neither the most compelling nor the most satisfying, but he’ll always be a player that riles up some emotions among the die-hards. As for whether those memories will be good or bad or somewhere in between – baseball can be unforgiving when it comes to what’s “deserved.”</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton &#8211; USA Today Sports</i></p>
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		<title>THE STUFF REPORT – VOL. 2, ISSUE 4</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/30/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-4/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/30/the-stuff-report-vol-2-issue-4/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 30 May 2017 14:35:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Sonne]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[STUFF]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marcus Stroman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Roberto Osuna]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11248</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thank you for tuning into the 2-4 Stuff report. It&#8217;s a week late for celebrating the real 2-4, but that doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t grab a 2-4 with your buds and enjoy some statistical bliss. And that doesn&#8217;t mean beer! There&#8217;s a great sale on Blue Label sparking water at Fortino&#8217;s right now. Have you [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for tuning into the 2-4 Stuff report. It&#8217;s a week late for celebrating the real 2-4, but that doesn&#8217;t mean you can&#8217;t grab a 2-4 with your buds and enjoy some statistical bliss. And that doesn&#8217;t mean beer! There&#8217;s a great sale on Blue Label sparking water at Fortino&#8217;s right now. Have you tried it? Delicious. What was I talking about?</p>
<h2>Starting Pitchers</h2>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Table.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11252" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Table-1024x208.png" alt="Starters Table" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Figure.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11251" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Starters-Figure-1024x742.png" alt="Starters Figure" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>My favourite pitcher to watch on the Stuff report has been Marcus Stroman. Stro has better stuff in 2017 than he did in 2016 &#8211; actually, his Stuff has increased by double, from 0.24 to 0.58. Last season, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/01/pitch-homogenization-and-marcus-stromans-breaking-balls/">Kyle Matte wrote about how Stroman&#8217;s pitches looked too similar.</a> It&#8217;s great that you can throw 6 different pitches, but if the hitter can&#8217;t tell the difference between them &#8211; they might as well all be fastballs to him.  This year &#8211; Stro is doing something different.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Stro-Show.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11254" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Stro-Show-1024x243.png" alt="Stro Show" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>Take a look at how he is changing speeds in 2017 &#8211; and how he is gaining separation between his pitches. The change in velocity is slight, but the 16.6&#8243; separation between his fastball and breaking stuff in the past two weeks is excellent. This separation actually ranks in the top 25 percent of all pitchers in the MLB in the 2017 this season. The 10.2&#8243; he had in 2016? 75 percent of pitchers were better. The current numbers mean a lot more space to induce swings and misses. This is reflected in his increased strikeout rate as well:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/stro-break-and-k9.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11255" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/stro-break-and-k9.png" alt="stro break and k9" width="700px" /></a>\</p>
<p>You obviously can&#8217;t infer that much from this graph &#8211; it is too small of a sample to say that this is a sustainable trend &#8211; but the relationship sure is interesting. We can look back at the end of the season and see how Stro&#8217;s pitch separation leads to punching more tickets.</p>
<h2>Relief Pitchers</h2>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/relievers-table.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11250" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/relievers-table-1024x224.png" alt="relievers table" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Figure.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11249" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Relievers-Figure-1024x742.png" alt="Relievers Figure" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The Blue Jays Bullpen Stuff resembles a lot of their season in general &#8211; a rocky start, followed by a lot of stability. In fact, this graph is boring as hell. Here class, may I show you a bunch of straight lines? The exciting thing is about how straight they are. Do you like Molson Canadian and White Wonderbread? I also enjoy going to bed at 10pm and having Swiss Chalet at 4:30 on Wednesdays.</p>
<p>There are two guys that I have some concerns with though &#8211; Roberto Osuna and Aaron Loup. Right now, Osuna&#8217;s stuff is 33 of what it was in 2016. As for Aaron Loup, his stuff has fallen completely off the map. While the culprit with Osuna looks like it&#8217;s a lot of velocity loss, Loup is not separating between his pitches at all in 2017. The Loup concern is something that is a bit more strategic &#8211; if he&#8217;s really feeling that fastball, there&#8217;s no need to throw the slider &#8211; especially if it&#8217;s getting guys out. Osuna&#8217;s leaking velocity is a bit more insidious &#8211; this could be a sign of fatigue and worse, a chance he&#8217;s injured. </p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Loup-and-OSuna.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-11257" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/Loup-and-OSuna-1024x316.png" alt="Loup and OSuna" width="700px" /></a></p>
<p>Stuff will continue to educate us all on the miracles of pitching.</p>
<p>Ok, back to my quarter chicken dinner.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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		<title>The Blue Jays Are Gaining Confidence in their Middle Relievers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/29/the-blue-jays-are-gaining-confidence-in-their-middle-relievers/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/29/the-blue-jays-are-gaining-confidence-in-their-middle-relievers/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 29 May 2017 10:52:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Barnes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Tepera]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11202</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Most of the conversation that’s surrounded the Blue Jays to this point has been about all the things that have gone wrong. The high profile injuries, the lackluster depth among starting pitchers, the lackluster depth at catcher, the poor start that’s rendered the rest of the season an uphill climb, overall offensive woes and so [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Most of the conversation that’s surrounded the Blue Jays to this point has been about all the things that have gone wrong. The high profile injuries, the lackluster depth among starting pitchers, the lackluster depth at catcher, the poor start that’s rendered the rest of the season an uphill climb, overall offensive woes and so on and so forth. That’s not to say that those stories have been unfair – this season has been slow to get off the ground and any playoff hopes are counting on a nice little run before the calendar turns to July. But in all of that there have been a handful of positives including the turnarounds of Kevin Pillar and Justin Smoak and the ascent of Joe Biagini.</p>
<p>One of the best untold stories of the year, however, has been the reformation of the Toronto bullpen, led by three homegrown talents that have exceeded all expectations to this point. At one point or another, all three have earned their way into higher leverage work, making their ways up from the bullpen’s less glamorous roles.</p>
<h3>Danny Barnes</h3>
<p>Back in 2010, the Jays selected Danny Barnes out of Princeton University in the 35<sup>th</sup> round of the draft. Barnes, having only made three starts since being drafted, has always boasted strong strikeout numbers working in relief, never posting a K/9 below 9.0 in any stop during his time in the organization. He has also shown excellent command – among stints with more than 10 innings pitched, last season’s 3.29 BB/9 in an abbreviated stay with the big club represents his highest mark since the 6.75 he posted back in A-ball in 2010. As for this season, Barnes made the most of his call-up and appears to have asserted himself as a viable middle reliever. He owns a 2.33 ERA and 1.03 WHIP with 21 strikeouts in 19.1 innings so far this year.</p>
<h3>Ryan Tepera</h3>
<p>In the 19<sup>th</sup> round of the 2009 draft, Toronto selected Ryan Tepera out of Sam Houston State. Unlike Barnes, Tepera was a converted starter and only moved to full time relief in AAA. While he’s posted solid strikeout numbers in the majors (7.9 K/9), he’s been far more of a ground ball pitcher throughout his career, generating grounders 46.5 percent of the time. Once used as a mop up man, Tepera has been absolutely terrific this season and leads the team in bullpen innings with 29.1 while delivering a sterling 2.76 ERA and 0.89 WHIP.</p>
<h3>Aaron Loup</h3>
<p>In that same year, Tulane’s Aaron Loup was chosen in the ninth round and made his Major League debut in 2012, appearing in 33 games. He was the owner of three very strong MLB seasons before completely imploding in 2015 and 2016. He saw some troubling changes, particularly in his HR/FB numbers which jumped from zero, 10.6 and 8.5 in his first three years up to 20.7 and 18.2 in the following seasons. As for balls that stayed in the yard, Loup had some more tough times with BABIP’s of .339 and .342 in his down years – well above the .299 mark that was his previous career-high. Fortunately for the Jays, Loup has settled down quite a bit this season. While he still might get the collar tug going in the stands from time to time, that’s more on his reputation than anything he’s put forth on the mound this year. He owns a 2.37 ERA in 19 innings, having allowed an earned run in just 3 of his 22 appearances and more than one earned run only once.</p>
<p>Every clean outing reinforces the notion that someone deserves high leverage innings, so I charted the Average Leverage Index (aLI) of each reliever’s appearance to see if their workloads have changed in terms of toughness or importance – Leverage Index is simply a measure of importance based on score, inning and baserunner for a given play; a numerical way to look at vital situations in a game. Below is a five game rolling average of aLI so we can get a feel for the changes in John Gibbons’ bullpen pecking order while smoothing over some of those &#8220;just to get some work&#8221; outings.</p>
<p>I’ve excluded Dominic Leone, Joe Smith and Roberto Osuna from this exercise because their roles have been fairly stable throughout the year. On the other hand, I decided to include Jason Grilli, who was relegated to low-leverage innings to try and work through his issues.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="alignnone wp-image-11206" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/BP_aLI5G_2.jpg" alt="BP_aLI5G_2" width="500" height="305" /></p>
<p>With a few blips, Barnes, Tepera and Loup are all on an upward trend and receiving more important innings than at the beginning of the year. Tepera&#8217;s spike was thanks to an 11th inning save with a 4.72 aLI while his swoon was caused by a .01 aLI inning in the final inning of a 6-0 loss. Loup’s usage as a lefty specialist (despite his strong numbers against righties so far) means that he’s often called upon to face a specific batter regardless of game state but it looks as though Gibbons is saving his appearance for more critical situations when possible. Yes, it’s a small sample to this point in the year, but we can still get a sense of the changes in deployment.</p>
<p>As to be expected given the general trend, all three have been handed “High Leverage” (using the Baseball Reference definition of aLI ≥ 1.5) situations more frequently as the season has gone on. It’s clearly evident with Barnes, who has really risen through the ranks after being used as an innings eater or last resort. While rest patterns and the need for regular work sometimes force players into low leverage (aLI ≤ 0.7) spots, the trio is soaking up &#8220;easy&#8221; innings less often. Here’s the aLI of each appearance by the three pitchers in question plus Grilli broken down into High Leverage, Medium Leverage and low Leverage situations:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/LeverageBreakdown.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11203" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/LeverageBreakdown.jpg" alt="LeverageBreakdown" width="494" height="132" /></a></p>
<p>Here’s the breakdown in just May:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/LeverageBreakdown_May.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-11204" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/05/LeverageBreakdown_May.jpg" alt="LeverageBreakdown_May" width="492" height="131" /></a></p>
<p>Again, it’s shown pretty clearly here that Barnes, Tepera and Loup are all working increasingly valuable situations in games, with a few coming at the expense of the bullpen’s resident veteran. With the Blue Jays sitting third in the majors in terms of bullpen innings pitched, these contributions have been incredibly important in keeping the season afloat.</p>
<p>So all three are rising to the top of the middle relief heap, and deservedly so. Last season the team relied on a pair of trades to revamp their bullpen that worked out wonderfully. That was always unlikely to play out again, so any holes in the dam would have to be plugged by improvement from within. Toronto has found three cheap, effective options to manage the middle innings. While much hasn’t gone right in 2017, this is one area where the Jays should be feeling fortunate.</p>
<p><em>*All numbers are accurate as of Saturday, May 27th</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Sign Right-Handed Reliever Joe Smith to Major League Deal</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/05/blue-jays-sign-right-handed-reliever-joe-smith-to-major-league-deal/</link>
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		<pubDate>Sun, 05 Feb 2017 06:10:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Gwin]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Angels]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cubs]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Joe Smith]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8893</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[According to Fox Sports&#8217; Ken Rosenthal, the Blue Jays and reliever Joe Smith have agreed to a one-year deal. Source: #BlueJays in agreement with free-agent reliever Joe Smith on one-year, major-league contract. &#8212; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) February 5, 2017 While his name is so generic that it almost seems fake, his talent is anything but. From [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>According to <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal" target="_blank">Fox Sports&#8217; Ken Rosenthal</a>, the Blue Jays and reliever Joe Smith have agreed to a one-year deal.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Source: <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> in agreement with free-agent reliever Joe Smith on one-year, major-league contract.</p>
<p>&mdash; Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) <a href="https://twitter.com/Ken_Rosenthal/status/828110041089732608">February 5, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>While his name is so generic that it almost seems fake, his talent is anything but. From a results perspective, Joe Smith was a solid reliever in 2016, ending the season with a 3.46 ERA while splitting time with the Angels and Cubs. That total came despite his giving up 1.38 home runs per nine innings, the 25th worst mark among qualified relievers in 2016. That high homer total was an aberration for Smith, who&#8217;s only had one other season with a HR/9 mark greater than 1.0.</p>
<p>Joe Smith is no fireballer, throwing a fastball that regularly sits below 90 MPH, thus limiting his strikeout potential. However, as <a href="http://www.rantsports.com/fantasy/files/2014/07/Joe-Smith.jpg" target="_blank">a sidearm pitcher</a> Smith has historically been able to keep the ball out of the air and he holds a career 56.2 % groundball rate. Between 2011 and 2015, his deceptive and wipeout slider combined for quite good results. Over that time span, Smith held a a 2.51 ERA, which was 25th among qualified relievers and in a similar range with Jonathan Papelbon and Tony Watson. He also handled left-handed batters very well, which is something of a surprise for a low slot guy. Since 2011, they have hit a measly .221/.308/.337, though that is higher in the last two years.</p>
<p>With that said, there are reasons why Smith didn&#8217;t sign until this point in the offseason and only got one year. Namely, the poor results described above in addition to a dip in velocity and some injury troubles. He missed 39 games due to hamstring problems last year, after missing ten the year before with an ankle injury.</p>
<p>Nevertheless, Smith adds to a Blue Jays bullpen that is quietly becoming incredibly deep. In addition to Roberto Osuna and Jason Grilli at the back end of the bullpen, the Jays now have three middle relief options with some upside in Smith, J.P. Howell, and Joe Biagini. Plus, the team has accumulated a hefty list of high-strikeout relievers in the minors with Dominic Leone, Danny Barnes, and Chris Smith. Each of those three relievers posted 2016 seasons with 10+ K/9 in the minors.</p>
<p>It remains to be seen whether or not the Blue Jays are done making moves for the offseason, but at the very least they&#8217;ve continued to fill out the roster with adequate depth. That strategy is somewhat of a departure from the previous regime&#8217;s strategy of &#8220;throw in whomever you&#8217;ve already got and hope for the best.&#8221;</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Activate Estrada and Morales, Option Loup and Burns</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/22/blue-jays-activate-estrada-and-morales-option-loup-and-burns/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jul 2016 19:24:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andy Burns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Antolin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Franklin Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4767</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays have announced that Marco Estrada and Franklin Morales have been activated off of the 15 and 60 day disabled lists, respectively, while Aaron Loup and Andy Burns have been optioned to AAA Buffalo to make room for the pair. To make room for Morales on the 40-man roster, RHP Dustin Antolin was [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays have announced that Marco Estrada and Franklin Morales have been activated off of the 15 and 60 day disabled lists, respectively, while Aaron Loup and Andy Burns have been optioned to AAA Buffalo to make room for the pair. To make room for Morales on the 40-man roster, RHP Dustin Antolin was designated for assignment.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">The <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays">@BlueJays</a> have reinstated Marco Estrada and Franklin Morales from the DL. Aaron Loup and Andy Burns have been optioned to <a href="https://twitter.com/BuffaloBisons">@BuffaloBisons</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Blue Jays (@BlueJays) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJays/status/756568194903597058">July 22, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Estrada, 33, the Blue Jays ace, has been his dominant self this season, with a 2.93 ERA in 16 starts. He makes his return after a brief time on the disabled list with a back injury. While he has been away the Blue Jays have carried an eight man bullpen, and that will continue with Morales also getting the call up. It&#8217;s an interesting strategy for a team that has starting pitching staff that leads the majors in innings pitched, but it&#8217;s likely to change in the coming days as the team cannot continue to carry relievers who aren&#8217;t getting the job done.</p>
<p>Morales, 30, was signed by the Blue Jays on April 2nd of this year with hopes that he would help stabilize the situation in the bullpen. However, after making just two appearances and recording a grand total of two outs, he was placed on the disabled list with shoulder fatigue. He has been on a rehab assignment in the minor leagues for the past 30 days, but now that his allowed time has run out, the Blue Jays needed to make a decision; release him or call him up to the big leagues.</p>
<p>He has been good as recently as last season with the Kansas City Royals, when he pitched in 62 1/3 innings and recorded an ERA of 3.18. His repertoire consists of a four-seam fastball that averages 92 mph, a two-seamer at the same speed, a slider at 88 mph, and a curve at 75 mph. In two innings with the Dunedin Blue Jays during his rehab stint, Morales allowed one hit, walked two, an struck out three. For the Buffalo Bisons, he pitched nine innings with an ERA of 2.00, striking out six and walking two. With Brett Cecil struggling and Loup being optioned, Morales could start to become an integral member of the Blue Jays bullpen if he can retire left handed batters at a decent rate.</p>
<p>Loup, 28, has really struggled, and has been up and down between Buffalo and Toronto this season, with a 6.00 ERA in 10 games for Toronto. He hasn&#8217;t shown the ability to get batters out like he did from 2012-2014, another example of the volatility of relief pitchers.</p>
<p>Burns, 25, is a fringe player at this point, and it wouldn&#8217;t surprise me if he was back in Toronto another couple of times before being called up for good in September. He has yet to record his first major league hit, reaching base on a walk once in his seven big league plate appearances.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Robert Deutsch-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Blue Jays and Impending Roster Decisions</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/07/22/the-blue-jays-and-impending-roster-decisions/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 22 Jul 2016 11:24:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andy Burns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Bo Schultz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chris Colabello]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Darwin Barney]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Franklin Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Junior Lake]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4733</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Toronto Blue Jays are playing rather well as of late and have launched themselves back into the upper echelon of the AL East. The team has hit its stride, but will have to shuffle some personnel with a handful of players set to return to the majors. While they should be getting their best [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Toronto Blue Jays are playing rather well as of late and have launched themselves back into the upper echelon of the AL East. The team has hit its stride, but will have to shuffle some personnel with a handful of players set to return to the majors. While they should be getting their best 25 guys on the roster and working the rest out later, there is some wiggle room in terms of who stays, who goes, and who plays where.</p>
<p>There are several routes the team could take in constructing their roster when all these players are ready to go, so let’s take a shot at it.</p>
<h3>Jose Bautista</h3>
<p>Most important is the return of Joey Bats. Adding Bautista to a group that’s clicking on all cylinders could produce the lethal lineup that many expected coming into the season. He homered in his first at bat in a rehab game on Wednesday and will move up to AAA Buffalo today.</p>
<p>Whether he wants to admit it or not, Bautista would do well to transition to first base or DH in the not-so-distant future. The problem is that the newly-extended Justin Smoak and Edwin Encarnacion have those two spots locked down. On days that Bautista DH’s (in a perfect world there’d be many) it pushes EE to first and Smoak to the bench. The other surplus comes in the outfield, as Bautista’s addition (temporarily) makes for five outfielders on the roster. The simple answer is to return Junior Lake to AAA though the team risks losing him on waivers. With all due respect to Lake, that’s a risk the team should be willing to take.</p>
<p>Losing Lake leaves some questions considering both Bautista and Michael Saunders should be spared from playing the field on a regular basis. Ezeqiuel Carrera has been scuffling and injured as of late but has still authored a fine season; barring a complete collapse he fits in fine as a fourth outfielder who’ll play more often than most. Wednesday’s experiment with Darwin Barney in left probably points to the end of Lake although Carerra’s nagging Achilles problem could prompt the team to keep him as insurance and demote Andy Burns instead. Having two regular outfielders in need of days off or DH time isn’t the best thing in the world, but the Jays can certainly patch together a working rotation with four outfielders plus Barney.</p>
<h3>Chris Colabello</h3>
<p>Colabello, set to return from his 80 game PED suspension, will present the most interesting challenge or the easiest out. While he could rejoin the Blue Jays at the end of the month, 80 games is a long time off and it’s doubtful that Colabello could jump right back in and be productive. The team could opt to keep him in the minors to work out the kinks and bring him up later, if they choose to bring him back up at all.</p>
<p>Colabello is ineligible for the postseason should the Jays qualify so they have to put some thought into whether he’s worth playing down the stretch. Do they try their best to get to October, an already projected outcome, at the expense of those who will actually have to play then? Or do they pass up potential gains to get players like Smoak regular at bats that might pay off in the postseason? That’s a delicate balancing act; one that the Jays might not want to deal with. They should be good enough to make the playoffs without adding the wildcard Colabello before September&#8217;s roster expansion, but stranger things have happened. There just aren&#8217;t many ways to fit Colabello unless one of the first base / DH spots opens up via injury (heaven forbid) or transaction (HEAVEN FORBID), making a triumphant return unlikely at this point.</p>
<p>Should the team decide he’s not worth using at the major league level this season it might be best just to release him once his suspension is up. This is a situation full of “ifs” in a year where the Jays don’t have time to mess around with the roster. Rather than have him kick around in the minors he’d be free to look for another job and would remove a source of potential distraction for the organization. Releasing Colabello would be like ripping off the Band-Aid; it’d be a quick end to a situation that could grow increasingly uneasy with time.</p>
<h3>Ryan Goins</h3>
<p>Goins has turned in a tough year, hitting just .176 / .216 / .308 to go with his 0.00 ERA. While he probably deserves to be in Buffalo based on merit, he seems to have carved out a spot in Toronto. If the team didn’t send him down during his struggles at the plate he’ll likely return to the big club at the expense of Burns (or Lake, depending on the Carrera business). That gives the Jays two backup middle infielders, though Barney can give Josh Donaldson a break at third base every once in a while.</p>
<h3>Franklin Morales</h3>
<p>Morales will have to be activated or released today; hopefully sometime after this is published. If forced to guess, I’d bet that he comes up for Aaron Loup. The Blue Jays have kept him on a rehab assignment for the maximum 30 days, so either they’ve either been killing time in hopes of a spot opening up organically or he’s really been struggling to get back to form. The smart money is probably on the former, as the only relievers with options remaining are Aaron Loup and Bo Schultz; neither of whom have played their way out of a job. Both have been adequate lately and it doesn’t seem like the Jays will carry three lefties. As a result, it’s pretty much a toss-up between Loup and Morales.</p>
<p>It might make the most sense to give Morales a chance to outperform Loup in the lefty specialist role. If he ends up being better, the Jays get improved production while keeping both in the organization. If he’s worse, they can release Morales and bring Loup back up. He’ll be kept on a short leash and the Jays will at least know what they’ve got before getting rid of him.</p>
<h3>Marco Estrada</h3>
<p>The staff ace will be activated on Friday, likely taking a spot from the bullpen. Bo Schultz probably gets sent down in the corresponding move, returning the team to five starters and seven relievers.</p>
<h3>The Shuffle</h3>
<p>To sum it all up, after all of the roster shuffling, here’s one guess as to what we’ll likely see.</p>
<ul>
<li>Franklin Morales to Toronto; Aaron Loup to Buffalo</li>
<li>Marco Estrada to Toronto; Bo Schultz to Buffalo</li>
<li>Jose Bautista to Toronto; Junior Lake to Buffalo</li>
<li>Ryan Goins to Toronto; Andy Burns to Buffalo</li>
<li>Colabello to the ether (at least until September)</li>
</ul>
<p>The Blue Jays are working their way back to full health and while that’s obviously a good thing, it does present some challenges in terms of roster construction. With the trade deadline approaching fast, there will surely be even more reshuffling. For now, there&#8217;s a couple paths forward. The team&#8217;s decision makers will have to navigate the forks in the road.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How Well Has Toronto Been Using the 25th Roster Spot?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/06/24/how-well-has-toronto-been-using-the-25th-roster-spot/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Jun 2016 11:53:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Girodo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dustin Antolin]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jimmy Paredes]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Pat Venditte]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Tepera]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Scott Diamond]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=4078</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto’s recent series against the Philadelphia Phillies saw the appearance of a familiar face: Jimmy Paredes. The Blue Jays claimed Paredes off waivers from the Orioles on May 16, only to designate him for assignment on the 30th and ship him to Philadelphia on June 1st. After notching a .886 OPS in his 17 Blue [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Toronto’s recent series against the Philadelphia Phillies saw the appearance of a familiar face: Jimmy Paredes. The Blue Jays claimed Paredes off waivers from the Orioles on May 16, only to designate him for assignment on the 30<sup>th</sup> and ship him to Philadelphia on June 1<sup>st</sup>. After notching a .886 OPS in his 17 Blue Jay at bats, Paredes was traded for cash considerations. When Paredes stepped to the plate, Pat Tabler lamented that the team had to let him go and referred to the notion that the Jays ‘just didn’t have room for him.’</p>
<p>With apologies to Mr. Tabler, that’s a statement that didn’t quite sit well at first. It seems like the Blue Jays often have a frustratingly short bench and a bullpen that has one guy who never gets enough work in. While that makes for simple math, it’s something I wanted to investigate. Who have the Jays been using in their final roster spot and were their performances more valuable than Paredes’ admittedly short stint of production?</p>
<p>On the offensive side of the equation Paredes seemed to fill a need for the Jays, who could probably use a bench bat considering the current options, regardless of how adequately some of those players have performed so far. With a usual bench of Josh Thole, Ryan Goins, Darwin Barney, and Ezequiel Carrera (now Darrell Ceciliani), pinch hitting late in games seems futile beyond the instances where Edwin Encarnacion starts at first base and pushes Justin Smoak to the bench.</p>
<p>A jack of all trades and a master of none, Paredes can play around the infield as well as in the outfield but is generally a subpar defender no matter where you put him. His defensive deficiencies definitely didn’t help his case, but the team can probably afford to carry a bad defender who will be limited to mostly pinch hitting duties. If you were to pinch hit for, say Darwin Barney, you could get Paredes an at bat and then insert Ryan Goins (or more likely Devon Travis, assuming full health) into the game defensively.</p>
<p>Since the team is insistent on carrying four middle infielders when at full health, we can assume that the final bench spot was sacrificed so the team could add another reliever to the mix. Looking at this season’s end-of-bench hitters (chronologically by call-up date) shows just three players who haven’t performed well in limited at bats, Paredes excepted:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/25thHitters.jpg"><img class=" wp-image-4079 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/25thHitters.jpg" alt="25thHitters" width="718" height="154" /></a></p>
<p>It’s unfair to ask anyone to try and hit major league pitching right away, especially when they’re given less than one plate appearance for each day spent with the big club. Additionally, the recent AAA assignment of Andy Burns marked the first time this season that a position player was not sent down to bring up a pitcher, as the activated Troy Tulowitzki took Burns’ spot on the roster. It’s clear that the Jays view Dominguez and Burns as insurance policies more than anything and getting them at bats is not one of the team’s primary goals. While it’s nice to have guys who can step in in case of injury, the Blue Jays could attempt to maximize their bench output in the meantime by having a legitimate pinch hitting threat.</p>
<p>With that in mind it’s pretty obvious that the team likes to call on relievers more often than not. The Jays typically run a seven man bullpen but will occasionally carry eight relievers, much to the chagrin of some fans, myself obviously included. When the team brings up an eighth reliever, there is usually simple logic to follow that rationalizes the move. They could be trying to bring up additional arms to get their usual guys some extra rest. They could be calling up certain pitchers for matchup purposes; like if a lefty heavy lineup is on the horizon. And finally, if the bullpen’s current members aren’t up to snuff, they could simply be trying a new solution.</p>
<p>The strong performance of Toronto’s rotation points to conflicting notions about the rest idea. The starters are more often than not only leaving 6-9 outs for the bullpen to record, which is good for the collective bullpen but probably puts undue stress on the top relievers. While the Jays would like to ease the burden on their trusted arms, no single reliever should be too overworked. Given the general mediocrity (though thankfully upward trend) of most of the Blue Jay relievers, the final spot has also served as a revolving door for different pitchers to show that they can stick with the big club.</p>
<p>The list of names hasn’t been all that inspiring, but having an effective mop up guy could pay off later. Everyone would take one step up the ladder, so pitchers like Jesse Chavez and Gavin Floyd will handle fewer low leverage innings and are better rested for situations that call for quality pitchers. In essence, a quality 7<sup>th</sup> reliever takes away an inning that would otherwise be wasted on superior pitchers. Given Roberto Osuna’s nagging ailments this year, the team has to be aching for some extra depth to both save arms and elevate top performers. So how have those alternatives looked?</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/25thPitchers.jpg"><img class="  aligncenter wp-image-4080" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/25thPitchers.jpg" alt="25thPitchers" width="449" height="168" /></a></p>
<p>As you can see, the results have been underwhelming so far. Rather than look at the season as a whole, I broke down each reliever’s numbers by their specific stretch with the Blue Jays.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/PitcherStints.jpg"><img class="  wp-image-4081 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/PitcherStints.jpg" alt="PitcherStints" width="817" height="295" /></a></p>
<p>On the whole, the last reliever on the roster is used in low leverage situations (by aLI), with the only exception being Ryan Tepera’s shrimp game in San Francisco. Even then, John Gibbons only called on Tepera because every other pitcher had been used aside from Roberto Osuna, who had pitched the previous two games. That low leverage use is ideal and accomplishes the goals outlined above concerning resting superior pitchers in less important situations, but it does raise the question of whether this rotating cast of characters is worth keeping over an extra bench bat considering they pitch so infrequently.</p>
<p>Aside from extended and ongoing stints by Chad Girodo and Aaron Loup’s 19 days on the roster, the bullpen call-ups might appear once per series. Tepera and Pat Venditte both had more than six days off at one point or another, and if the team really wants to give their high leverage guys an inning off every once in a while they certainly would be using these bottom bullpen players more often. So for the longer stints (we’ll deal with the one game guys in a moment), just how long do these pitchers get to show their stuff?</p>
<p>The average stint is just shy of 10 days, and shrinks to just over eight when we remove Girodo’s abnormally long outlier stint. If we also remove Aaron Loup’s run on the roster, operating under the assumption that he was expected to be a permanent member of the bullpen, it drops to just over seven days. These relievers spend about a week with the Jays and appear once or twice.</p>
<p>As for the pitchers who only made one appearance, they have all been used fairly ideally with the exception of Tepera’s necessary involvement in San Francisco:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/1GamePitchers.jpg"><img class="  wp-image-4082 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/06/1GamePitchers.jpg" alt="1GamePitchers" width="636" height="395" /></a></p>
<p>Most of them took the mound in mop up duty during long stretches without an off day. If you want to give someone a chance to get work in, that’s the time to do it. For context, I looked at the amount of unique pitchers that Gibbons had called on over the previous two games. Two games was chosen as the cutoff simply because Gibbons often won’t use a pitcher on three consecutive nights. Aside from Tepera’s 13<sup>th</sup> inning outing, each other appearance came after five or six pitchers had seen action in the last two days. Beyond that, most of these damage control outings helped save a handful of more valuable pitchers from wasting innings in games that were all but over.</p>
<p>To sum it up, given the infrequent usage of the seventh man of the bullpen, there is almost never a reason to summon an eighth pitcher from Buffalo. That final spot would almost always be better spent on an extra bench bat. While having a player like Paredes around doesn’t guarantee John Gibbons would find him playing time, it seems like the last bullpen option has fewer opportunities to make an impact on the game. If anything, having both Barney and Goins on the roster makes having a pinch hitting specialist all the more palatable, especially late in games.</p>
<p>The team has actually done well to take a look at a few different pitchers this season in a Seventh Man role and while none have stuck so far, the Jays at least have an idea of what they’re working with. It might behoove the team to just give the spot to Loup, Girodo or Venditte and let them run with it in regular work, but there’s no harm in trying to get different pitchers acclimated to major league hitters in low leverage innings, especially earlier in the year. The negatives only truly arise when two spots are spent on players who appear infrequently at the expense of potential offensive upgrades. While the Blue Jays have tended to favor the safety net of a big bullpen, it might be time to think about the opportunity cost of doing so.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photos: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Spring Training News Roundup: Tulo, EE, and the Bullpen</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/25/spring-training-news-roundup/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/25/spring-training-news-roundup/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 Mar 2016 20:23:49 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aaron Loup]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Girodo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Jenkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[David Aardsma]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Edwin Encarnacion]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Troy Tulowtizki]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=672</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[There were a few newsworthy pieces out of Blue Jays camp this afternoon as the team heads to Clearwater for a night game. The most important piece of news came when the lineup was posted, and a familiar face was back in it at shortstop: #BlueJays vs #Phillies pic.twitter.com/Y04Gamfdl5 &#8212; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) March 25, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>There were a few newsworthy pieces out of Blue Jays camp this afternoon as the team heads to Clearwater for a night game. The most important piece of news came when the lineup was posted, and a familiar face was back in it at shortstop:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="und" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> vs <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Phillies?src=hash">#Phillies</a> <a href="https://t.co/Y04Gamfdl5">pic.twitter.com/Y04Gamfdl5</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/713440248294989824">March 25, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>After being hit in the hand by an errant Bartolo Colon pitch on Wednesday afternoon, Troy Tulowitzki is healthy and will be playing tonight. This is definitely a good sign; sometimes, with hand injuries, the swelling can hide a partial fracture in one of the bones from the first x-ray. That obviously isn&#8217;t the case with Tulowitzki, as the swelling has gone down enough for him to play and he&#8217;s feeling no apparent discomfort.</p>
<p>The second piece of news is that left handed reliever Aaron Loup will open the season on the disabled list, retroactive to March 26th.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Loup starts season on DL &#8211; and DL starts March 26, so it could be retro to that date</p>
<p>&mdash; mark zwolinski (@markzwol) <a href="https://twitter.com/markzwol/status/713446270895951872">March 25, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>He was shut down earlier in camp with forearm tightness and has yet to get in a spring game. This paves the way for one of Pat Venditte or Randy Choate to make the team as the second lefty in the bullpen behind Brett Cecil, with the obvious advantage going to Choate (one of the greatest LOOGY&#8217;s in MLB history). The Loup transaction makes the bullpen picture a lot clearer, as does these three moves the club made this afternoon:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a> say David Aardsma, Chad Girodo and Chad Jenkins reassigned to minor-lg camp, 44 players remain.</p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/713445678144421888">March 25, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Aardsma is the only one of the three who really had a shot at making the club out of Spring Training, and he may still get a chance at the big league team in the next couple of months before he has a chance to opt out in May. The competition for the last two bullpen spots is now down to Steve Delabar, Ryan Tepera, Joe Biagini, Arnold Leon, and Gavin Floyd/Aaron Sanchez. The other five spots will be taken up by Drew Storen, Roberto Osuna, Brett Cecil, Jesse Chavez, and one of Pat Venditte or Randy Choate. Although it is also possible Venditte grabs one of the empty spots if he loses to Choate.</p>
<p>The last bit of news concerns Edwin Encarnacion&#8217;s health. He has yet to play this Spring Training due to an abscessed tooth and an oblique injury, but that may change soon:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Edwin Encarnacion plans to play in minor-league game Monday. Hit in the cage today. Says oblique feels fine. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/713450518467710977">March 25, 2016</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The decision to play in a minor league game is an obvious one because he&#8217;ll still be able to be placed on the major league disabled list (retroactive to March 26th) if he doesn&#8217;t get into a big league game before hand. Thus, playing EE in minor league games until he is comfortable with his bat will likely be the route that the team takes. However, it doesn&#8217;t seem that it may take too long, as he told <a href="https://twitter.com/SNBarryDavis/status/713450583697580032" target="_blank">Barry Davis</a> that it doesn&#8217;t matter how many at bats he gets in the spring, because if he is healthy come Opening Day, he&#8217;ll be in the lineup.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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