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	<title>Toronto &#187; 2016 Toronto Blue Jays</title>
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		<title>ALCS Game 5 Recap: Cleveland 3, Toronto 0; Not With a Bang but a Whisper</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/19/alcs-game-5-recap-cleveland-3-toronto-0-not-with-a-bang-but-a-whisper/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/19/alcs-game-5-recap-cleveland-3-toronto-0-not-with-a-bang-but-a-whisper/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 19 Oct 2016 23:05:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALCS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[el;imination]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[loss]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7603</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As with all of their other losses in the ALCS, the Blue Jays fell behind early, and failed to figure any way to come back over the next 8 innings. The Jays fell 3-0, and in the series 4-1, and I don&#8217;t recall them ever getting a runner to third base. Things did not start [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As with all of their other losses in the ALCS, the Blue Jays fell behind early, and failed to figure any way to come back over the next 8 innings. The Jays fell 3-0, and in the series 4-1, and I don&#8217;t recall them ever getting a runner to third base.</p>
<p>Things did not start off well for the Blue Jays in this win or go home game, and they didn&#8217;t get any better as the innings wore on.</p>
<p>A Mike Napoli double off of starter Marco Estrada resulted in a 1-0 deficit for the Jays before they even got a chance to bat. Their bats were completely paralyzed by the rookie junkballer Ryan Merritt, as he faced one over the minimum through his four and a third innings.</p>
<p>Solo home runs by Carlos Santana and Coco Crisp made it a 3-0 hole, and the Blue Jays found themselves inside a seemingly bottomless pit, from which their offense was reluctant to climb.</p>
<p>Cecil, Biagini and Osuna held the line, once again giving up zero runs over their combined three frames, but in a familiar turn of events, the Blue Jays could not solve the Cleveland bullpen.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista doubled to lead off the 9th, in what might well be his last at-bat as a Blue Jay. Two strikeouts and a popup later, the Blue Jays 2016 season was over. Cleveland moves on to the World Series.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>The game was, in a way, won in the first inning with that Mike Napoli run scoring double. That hit raised the odds of a Cleveland victory by 11%, and they just kept inching upwards from there.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Josh Donaldson did not have an MVP calibre day, highlighted by the double play he hit into in the 6th inning, that twin killing cost the Jays .058 of a win. It&#8217;s also a note about how few opportunities the Jays had, since nothing moved the needle more than 6% for Toronto.</p>
<h3>Bautista Goes Out Hitting?</h3>
<p>Jose Bautista&#8217;s Toronto tenure may be over. He did himself proud on this day, going 2-4 with a double on a day when not other Jays got multiple hits, or hit for extra bases. As he rolls into free agency, there are many Blue Jay moments that will define his career, and the franchise&#8217;s history. Players like that are few and far between</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>Staring out the window and waiting for spring. (Well, a World Series next week if you still need baseball in your life for a few more games.)</p>
<p>Lead Photo&nbsp;Credit -Nick Turchiaro&nbsp;<strong>USA TODAY Sports </strong></p>
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		<title>ALCS Game 3 Recap: Cleveland 4, Blue Jays 2; Toronto Bleeds Out Slowly</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/17/alcs-game-3-recap-cleveland-4-blue-jays-2-toronto-bleeds-out-slowly/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 18 Oct 2016 03:49:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Elie Waitzer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ALCS]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Cleveland]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[loss Trevor Bauer]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[playoffs]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7523</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Injury chased their starter early, but Cleveland&#8217;s bullpen continued to have an answer for every Jays threat. Toronto would never take the lead, falling 4-2 in the game and are now down 3-0 in the series. Cleveland drew first blood on a Mike Napoli double, but Toronto lashed back in the bottom of the 1st. After [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Injury chased their starter early, but Cleveland&#8217;s bullpen continued to have an answer for every Jays threat. Toronto would never take the lead, falling 4-2 in the game and are now down 3-0 in the series.</p>
<p>Cleveland drew first blood on a Mike Napoli double, but Toronto lashed back in the bottom of the 1st. After throwing just 19 pitches, the blood gushing from the drone-inflicted wound on Trevor Bauer&#8217;s pinky became to much to ignore. Two pats on the cheek from Terry Francona and Bauer&#8217;s night was done.</p>
<p>If Cleveland goes on to lose this series, they&#8217;ll be calling it The Curse of the Dronebino.</p>
<p>Dan Otero warmed up in a hurry, and quickly served up a homer to Michael Saunders to knot that game at 1-1 in the 2nd. It looked like things would start to snowball out of control for Cleveland; you can&#8217;t throw Andrew Miller out there in the 3rd and the Jays would feast on the no-name back end of the bullpen. That&#8217;s how it played out in my head.</p>
<p>Instead, the Jays were shut down by guys named Jeff Manship and Zack McAllister, and Napoli crushed the first pitch he saw in the 4th into the stands to put Cleveland back on top. With Cleveland comfortably leading in the 7th, the air went out of the Rogers Centre as fans waited for Andrew Miller to jog in.</p>
<p>But instead in came Bryan Shaw, and then Cody Allen, and with a rally brewing in the bottom of the 7th Miller remained seated. Shades of Zach Britton. Donaldson stepped up to the plate with men on second and first and hit the first pitch from Allen right on the money, which in the 2016 ALCS means right into Coco Crisp&#8217;s glove.</p>
<p>Andrew Miller finally came in with two outs in the 8th, and did what he does. It took seven pitchers &#8211; and 149 pitches<strong> </strong>- to win the game for Cleveland. A lot of the credit&#8217;s going to go to Francona for &#8220;pulling this one out of a hat&#8221; after Bauer&#8217;s pinky busted open in the 1st, and that&#8217;s deserved. He&#8217;s consistently gotten the matchups he wants, and he&#8217;s been aggressive on the basepaths and with defensive positioning.</p>
<p>Make no mistake, though, this game wasn&#8217;t won by Cleveland, it was lost by the Jays&#8217; bats.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Jason Kipnis&#8217; go-ahead homer in the 5th was worth +0.163 WPA. According to Statcast, the dinger was clocked at 107.3 MPH &#8211; the fastest ball of Kipnis&#8217; bat all season.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>Pillar&#8217;s strikeout in the 9th lowered the Jays chances of winning by 7.7%, but we won&#8217;t hold it against him.</p>
<h3>Cleveland runs wild again</h3>
<p>We knew it would be bad, but not this bad. After Rajai Davis burned up the basepaths to score the game-winning run in Game 2, Coco Crisp got things rolling early against Stroman in the 2nd. He stole second without a throw, and then pressured a wild pitch that allowed him to get to third base.</p>
<p>I understand that the Jays rotation isn&#8217;t going to give up the count to a batter in order to focus on controlling the running game, but they could at least feign interest. Crisp took the kind of lead you take when you know the pitcher isn&#8217;t paying attention, but if Stroman had glanced over he would&#8217;ve had him picked off easily. Even Mike Napoli got in on the action, taking advantage of a pitch in the dirt to swipe a bag.</p>
<h3>The Ever Changing Strike Zone</h3>
<p>The strike zone was once again a point of contention early on, as Brian Gorman was all over the place. The problem wasn&#8217;t so much accuracy, but consistency. One moment he would be calling the inside fastball a strike, next moment it would be a ball. Seemed to go both ways, though, but a called strike against Michael Saunders stands out on the left of this graphic.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/chart.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-7542 size-medium" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2016/10/chart-300x300.png" alt="chart" width="300" height="300" /></a></p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>In an in-game interview right after Bauer was forced to leave the game, Francona said Kluber would be starting Game 4. It&#8217;ll be short rest, but who better to hand the ball to in an elimination game than last year&#8217;s Cy Young winner? (I mean, yes, Andrew Miller would be better.) Aaron Sanchez will toe the hill for the Jays at 4 p.m. EST.</p>
<p><strong> Lead Photo Credit</strong>- <em>Nick Turchiaro </em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Recap: Blue Jays 5, Orioles 1; Donaldson Stays Hot At Camden Yard</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/29/toronto-5-baltimore-1-blue-jays-donaldson-stays-hot-at-camden-yard/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 30 Aug 2016 02:11:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Eric Mercer]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Recaps]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[AL East]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Baltimore Orioles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donalson]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Marco Estrada]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6086</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Jays took the series opener 5-1 against Baltimore at Camden Yards. They are now beginning to assert their dominance as the premier bird in the AL East, pushing their lead to a commanding four games over the Orioles. Hardy hit a home run to left field against Estrada in the first inning. Melvin Upton Jr. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Jays took the series opener 5-1 against Baltimore at Camden Yards. They are now beginning to assert their dominance as the premier bird in the AL East, pushing their lead to a commanding four games over the Orioles. Hardy hit a home run to left field against Estrada in the first inning. Melvin Upton Jr. had a bead on the ball and time his jump at the wall perfectly. What he did not account for was a Baltimore fan with a glove directly above him. As Upton rose to catch the ball in the stands, the fan stuck his glove out and essentially inhibited Upton&#8217;s glove from continuing it&#8217;s upward trajectory. The ball fell right into the Baltimore fan&#8217;s glove. Kudos to him for denying Upton an absolute web gem. The Jays were in a hole quickly, but it didn&#8217;t remain there for long. In the 4th, Josh Donaldson hit his 34th home run to tie the game, and Tulowitzki singled home a run for the lead later in the inning. From there on out, the Jays didn&#8217;t allow a run, and piled on three more of their own, including a Jose Bautista solo shot. A shoutout to Estrada who adapted to the Baltimore strategy and strung together seven impressive innings of work. In doing so, he cast away the doubt that was surrounding him and his performance as of late.</p>
<h3>Top Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In a game with few runs, it is unsurprising that the top play is awarded to a swing that deposited a ball on the other side of the fence. Keeping up with his performance from Sunday&#8217;s game, Josh Donaldson continued to put the middle of the bat on the baseball. His solo home run in the 4th inning tied the game 1-1. The Jays never trailed for the remainder of the game, never allowing another Baltimore run to score. Donaldson contributed 0.126 WPA with that swing. An honorable mention goes to Jose Bautista for his solo home run in the 6th inning. He compiled 0.120 WPA while increasing his home run total to 16 on the season.</p>
<h3>Bottom Play of the Game by WPA</h3>
<p>In the 7th inning, with the Orioles trailing by two runs; Matt Wieters stepped to the plate and hit a rocket. Unfortunately for him, it was straight into the waiting mitt of first baseman &#8220;Smoaky Bear&#8221;. Mark Trumbo, who was on first, took a surprising step farther off the bag which made it an extremely clear cut double play. Even if Trumbo broke back immediately, he probably didn&#8217;t have a chance to reach the bag before Smoak. Wieters gets credit for a hard hit, worst play of the game. He detracted 0.133 WPA from his team&#8217;s chance to win the game. That&#8217;s a tough way to pick up this award, Matt.</p>
<h3>Estrada Returns To Form</h3>
<p>Going into this start, there was general trepidation surrounding Marco Estrada place amongst the starting rotation. In his last two starts, he had failed to make it past the 5th inning in either occasion. All told, he allowed 11 earned runs in only 9.0 innings of work. This late into the season, Estrada was able to increase his ERA from 2.95 to 3.47; a remarkable feat for starts number 21 and 22. However, Marco reverted to his previous form tonight, going seven innings, allowing only four hits which amounted to only one run.</p>
<p>I thought the Orioles hitters were sitting on his change up early on in the game. This is a trend that appeared evident in the last two starts when Estrada struggled. In about the third inning, it appeared that Martin and Marco altered the gameplan. They began throwing more curveballs early in the count and jamming righties with fastballs. After they had established the curve, and to a certain degree, the cutter; Estrada began to toss in more change ups once again. The ability to pick up on what hitters are looking for and adjust mid-game is truly an impressive feat. With Marco&#8217;s philosophy of not shaking off the catcher, Martin likely deserves the credit here; but in any event, the Orioles hitters struggled between innings three and seven, accumulating only one hit.</p>
<h3>MVP.</h3>
<p>There isn&#8217;t much new to say about Josh Donaldson. The man is in another realm right now. In the first inning, he tagged a ball to dead center field that required an impressive catch by Nolan Reimold to prevent extra bases. Reimold found himself flat on his back after his encounter with the wall. Donaldson wasn&#8217;t to be denied. In the 4th inning, Josh did what Josh does best, bring the Jays back to square one with one crack of the bat.</p>
<h3>Up Next</h3>
<p>This was only the opener and the Jays are in for two more thrillers. J.A. Happ takes the mound for the Blue Birds tomorrow night, with Aaron Sanchez coming back up from Dunedin on Wednesday. Their counterparts are <del>recently demoted</del> Ubaldo Jimenez and Yovani Gallardo respectively.</p>
<p>Lead Photo credit &#8211; <em>Evan Habeeb</em>-<strong>USA TODAY Sports</strong></p>
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		<title>BP Toronto&#8217;s Bold Predictions for 2016</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/30/bp-toronto-bold-predictions/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 30 Mar 2016 16:09:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[BP Toronto Team]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2016 Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Predictions]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=840</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s that time again! A time of year when all of us here at BP Toronto dust off our crystal balls and attempt to predict the future of the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays. We have a full roster of contributors this year, so you will get your fill of prognostication. Andrew Arnold, Chris Sherwin, Dave Church, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s that time again! A time of year when all of us here at BP Toronto dust off our crystal balls and attempt to predict the future of the 2016 Toronto Blue Jays. We have a full roster of contributors this year, so you will get your fill of prognostication. Andrew Arnold, Chris Sherwin, Dave Church, Eric Mercer, Gideon Turk, Greg Wisniewski, Jenn Smith, Joshua Howsam, Kyle Matte, Matt Gwin, Michael Bradburn, Nick Dika, Steven McEwen, and Tammy Rainey have all decided to put their reputations on the line this year.</p>
<p>Below you will see each person&#8217;s picks and thoughts in eight different categories. The pick will be in bold and the accompanying thoughts are italicized. Have any qualms? questions? comments? Be sure to let us know what you think of our picks in the comments below.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Record in 2016</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>90-72</strong> &#8211; <em>They stay the healthiest, and finish as the only playoff team in the East.</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <strong>91-71</strong> -<em> Back-to-back division champs!</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <strong>89-73</strong> &#8211; <em>The Jays should be in the hunt, but won&#8217;t get way ahead with Boston and Tampa looming.</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <strong>95-67</strong> &#8211; <em>Jays win the division by a wide margin over the lackluster Sox.</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <strong>93-70 </strong>- <em>Game 163 is going to be nice.</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <strong>89-73</strong> -<em> Winning 90 was clearly an aberration. History doesn&#8217;t lie.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <strong>95-67</strong> &#8211; <em>The Jays will defend their title as AL East Champions.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <strong>89-73</strong> – <em>Jays win a tight division by two games.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <strong>92-70</strong> &#8211; <em>Narrowly repeat as AL East champs in a hyper-competitive division.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <strong>88-74</strong> &#8211; <em>This 2016 team is better than where they started last season, but worse than where they finished.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <strong>91-71</strong> &#8211; <em>First in the AL East ahead of the 88-win Boston Red Sox.</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <strong>85-77</strong> &#8211;  <em>With the tooled up Red Sox and no easy wins in the division, it&#8217;ll be a struggle.</em><br />
Steven &#8211; <strong>92-70</strong> &#8211; <em>Every team in the AL East has holes, the Jays will just find a way past theirs.</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <strong>100-62</strong> &#8211; <em>Simply put, I don&#8217;t think any other AL team is even close to being as good as the Jays.<br />
</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Best Position Player</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>What?  You were expecting someone else?</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>He may not repeat his MVP season, but he&#8217;ll be in the mix come award time.</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>Reigning MVP in his prime. Let&#8217;s not overthink it.</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>Back-to-back MVP&#8217;s. Sorry Mike Trout.</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>There&#8217;s no other option for this answer.</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>I&#8217;d like to be clever here,  but he&#8217;s coming off 3 MVP calibre seasons in a row.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>You just can&#8217;t stop the rain &#8211; or the reigning MVP.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> – <em>The Jays will have an MVP candidate on the left-side again, but this year it’ll be at SS.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>Anyone but the MVP is just someone trying to be cute.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>It&#8217;ll be hard to beat the reigning MVP/viking extraordinaire.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em>I was trying really hard not to pick him, but&#8230;</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> &#8211; <em>We are reminded good Tulo really is. Only thing he hurts this year is Boston’s playoff chances.</em><br />
Steven &#8211; <strong>Josh Donaldson</strong> &#8211; <em> Can you think of it being anyone else honestly?</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> &#8211; <em>He&#8217;s going to stay healthy and dominate.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Best Pitcher</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Marcus Stroman</strong> &#8211; <em>I picked Hutchison last year, so you know you can trust me on opening day starters.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Chris &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Stroman will continue to silence the doubters and put up a 200 inning, 3.00 ERA season.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Dave &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">The best pitcher on the team by a mile. At this point, it&#8217;s difficult to doubt his drive or his talent.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Eric &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Aaron Sanchez</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Will blow expectations out of the water; his command will be sharp all season.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Gideon &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Strotember was fun, but Strapril, Stray, Strune, Struly, and Strogust are going to be even better.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Greg &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">He has 80 grade #want.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Jenn -</span><strong style="line-height: 1.5"> Aaron Sanchez</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">His new-found command looks legit &#8211; and we couldn&#8217;t all pick Stroman.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Joshua &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Aaron Sanchez </strong><span style="line-height: 1.5">- </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Conventional wisdom says Stroman, but I’m all in on Aaron.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Kyle &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">200+ innings and a few Cy Young votes to boot.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Matt &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">J.A. Happ</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">When he was at his best last season, Happ was better than any Jays pitcher we&#8217;ve seen in a long time.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Michael &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroma</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5">n &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">I&#8217;d love to pick anyone else, but uh&#8230;<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Nick &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Roberto Osuna</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">This year the 21 year old makes us even more frustrated that he doesn&#8217;t want to be a starter.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Steven &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Aaron Sanchez</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Sanchez can gain A.J. Burnett&#8217;s control, and Sanchez&#8217;s pure stuff might be even better.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Tammy &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Sanchez will challenge for this claim, but I can&#8217;t go against Marcus.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Breakout Player of the Year</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Justin Smoak</strong> &#8211; <em>Will finally fulfill his promise and become a solid, pun-worthy, starting first baseman</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong> &#8211; <em>He&#8217;ll put up a solid No. 3 starter performance before being moved to the pen. Sound familiar?</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <strong>Aaron Sanchez &#8211; </strong><em>After a fantastic spring, and by moving into a larger role this season, Sanchez makes the leap.</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>He will produce career highs in homers (&gt;20) and hits (&gt;125) while playing more than 120 games.</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <strong>Kevin Pillar</strong> &#8211; <em>Hard to breakout even more, but the bat is going to take a huge step forward with his new mechanics.</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <strong>Dalton Pompey</strong> &#8211; <em>When Kevin Pillar can&#8217;t duplicate 2015 at the plate, Pompey is ready and willing.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <strong>Pat Venditte</strong> &#8211; <em>He pitched well enough this spring to suggest he&#8217;s more than just a one-trick pony.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <strong>Edwin Encarnacion</strong> &#8211; <em>He’ll hit a ball so hard that it “breaks” the “out” sign on the digital scoreboard.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <strong>Aaron Sanchez</strong> &#8211; <em>He&#8217;s a competent changeup away from being terrifying.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <strong>Dalton Pompey</strong> &#8211; <em>He may not get the chance to prove it, but he&#8217;s still got the on-base and defensive chops.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <strong>Kevin Pillar</strong> -<em> Last year was probably his breakout, but imagine a leadoff man with an OBP of .330 and 30+ steals.</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <strong>The Other Sanchez</strong> &#8211; <em>Tony Sanchez is a revelation as the backup C – a guy who won’t kill you on offense or defense. </em><br />
Steven &#8211; <strong>Ryan Goins</strong> &#8211; <em>Goins has a fantastic swing and has some decent power in his bat; improved approach will lead to results.</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>He&#8217;s good when he can play, and he&#8217;s going to actually stay healthy for a full season.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Comeback Player of the Year</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Aaron Loup</strong> &#8211; <em>Pitched much better than his surface stats suggested; should return to form.</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>Saunders will stay healthy for the first time ever.</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>Saunders is the pick here mostly by default. Hard to go anywhere but up after last year.</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> &#8211; <em>Is this cheating? Wasn&#8217;t great as a Jay, but new leg kick will do wonders for his offense.</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <strong>Devon Travis</strong> &#8211; <em>Maybe not &#8216;of the year,&#8217; but definitely for the months of June through September!</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>I could go with a certain pitcher, but two Canadian Blue Jay All-Stars would be pretty cool.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>After appearing in just nine games last season, Saunders will provide both power and solid defense.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <strong>Gavin Floyd</strong> &#8211; <em>Pitching out of the pen, Floyd will miraculously stay healthy for a full year and flourish.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <strong>Troy Tulowitzki</strong> &#8211; <em>Tulo&#8217;s going to push Donaldson for the title of &#8220;Best Jay,&#8221; and it&#8217;s going to be spectacular.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <strong>Aaron Loup</strong> -<em> If he ever gets back from his injury, he&#8217;ll be the superstar lefty relieverthat we remember.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <strong>Drew Hutchison</strong> -<em> I can&#8217;t quit you.</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <strong>Drew Hutchison</strong> &#8211; <em>&#8220;Don&#8217;t Call It a Comeback!&#8221; Hutch provides slightly above league-average production on the cheap.</em><br />
Steven &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>Kid Canuck will roar back with a passion, combining the power and speed fans expected last year.</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> &#8211; <em>Kinda have to go with this one, right? I don&#8217;t count Stroman since he came back last year.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Biggest Bust</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Ace</strong> &#8211; <em>Now a 15 year veteran, this once elite mascot is sure to see some decline in his production.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Chris &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Pillar is not the four win player he was in  2015; expect defensive regression.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Dave &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Weighty expectations on defense and the leadoff spot on offense will  proved to be too much.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Eric &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Expectations are high and I don&#8217;t think his bat will play at the top of the order. Defense will regress.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Gideon &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Troy Tulowitzki</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Injuries are the worst.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Greg &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Drew Storen</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Relievers, man, you never know.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Jenn &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Defensively, he&#8217;ll be stellar. As a leadoff hitter&#8230;.not so much.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Joshua -</span><strong style="line-height: 1.5"> Jesse Chavez</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> – </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">By midseason, Chavez will become a pure long man, long since passed on by Floyd/Biagini.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Kyle &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Chris Colabello</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">ColaBABIP has to end at some point, right?<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Matt &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Kevin Pillar</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; H</span><em style="line-height: 1.5">e thrived on low expectations; now the expectations are high and it&#8217;ll be hard to repeat.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Michael &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marco Estrada</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Even if he did make adjustments, can those adjustments really continue working so effectively?<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Nick &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">R.A. Dickey</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Even knuckleballers can’t pitch forever. Dickey is getting to an age where guys start to decline/get hurt.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Steven &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marcus Stroman</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">I&#8217;m not predicting a 6.00 ERA, but I&#8217;m sure many would consider a 3.60 ERA or so disappointing.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Tammy &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Ryan Goins</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">I&#8217;ll pick Goins just on the basis that expectations in some quarters being too high.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>Key to 2016 Success</h2>
<p>Andrew &#8211; <strong>Depth</strong> &#8211; <em>This is team has a legitimate back-up at every position, and plenty of rotation options.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Chris &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Pitching Depth</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">I loved the focus on adding to the pitching staff. No more AAA lifers making spot starts.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Dave &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Starting Pitching</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">The Jays will score all the runs; they just need to prevent them as well.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Eric &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Starter Health</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">If the Jays have decent arms who can soak up innings, the offense will take care of the rest.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Gideon &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Pitching Depth</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">As long as the Scott Copelands of the world don&#8217;t make any starts for this team, they should be fine.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Greg &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">All the Runs</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">More opposing pitcher abuse plus some average Jays pitching will mean a rise to the top of a tight division.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Jenn &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Starting Rotation</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">As long as the rotation doesn&#8217;t implode and overtax the pen, this lineup ought to bludgeon opponents.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Joshua &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Marco Estrada</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> – </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">If he pitches like a #2-3 starter again instead of a #4-5, the Jays will be in great shape.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Kyle &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Pitching Command</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Toronto had the</em><span style="line-height: 1.5"> </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">3rd lowest walk rate in 2015; this pitching staff needs to try and replicate that.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Matt &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Troy Tulowitzki</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">If he&#8217;s healthy and good, he&#8217;s a 7 WARP player. If he&#8217;s not, oh boy.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Michael &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Pitching Depth</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">A healthy, 200 innings from Stroman is a lot to count on. The depth Atkins acquired will be tested.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Nick &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Depth and Taxes</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">Hopefully spreading our worthless dollars around on several free agents was the right thing to do.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Steven &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">Defense</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">The Blue Jays are going to have a weak contact-heavy rotation, which means many balls in play.<br />
</em><span style="line-height: 1.5">Tammy &#8211; </span><strong style="line-height: 1.5">The Rotation</strong><span style="line-height: 1.5"> &#8211; </span><em style="line-height: 1.5">There are questions in the pen, but it&#8217;s the starters who will determine how far this team goes.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h2>One Bold Prediction</h2>
<p>Andrew- <em>Yale-educated Craig Breslow tells Stroman that the size of one&#8217;s heart is in fact proportional to one&#8217;s height. Benches clear.</em><br />
Chris &#8211; <em>Josh Donaldson&#8217;s hair will become the 2016 version of  &#8216;The Rachel.&#8217;</em><br />
Dave &#8211; <em>Aaron Sanchez will lead the team in wins (until September).</em><br />
Eric &#8211; <em>Buck Martinez miraculously pronounces everyone&#8217;s names correctly. Pat Tabler stops describing players as &#8216;strong.&#8217;</em><br />
Gideon &#8211; <em>Does Gavin Floyd winning the Cy Young Award count?</em><br />
Greg &#8211; <em>Devon Travis returns in mid May and hits .400 for the rest of the season, falling just short of qualifying for the batting title.</em><br />
Jenn &#8211; <em>Aaron Sanchez will start in the postseason.</em><br />
Joshua &#8211; <em>In an effort to keep hitters guessing, Pat Venditte will become the first pitcher ever to throw with both hands at the same time.</em><br />
Kyle &#8211; <em>Troy Tulowitzki belts more dingers than Edwin Encarnacion.</em><br />
Michael &#8211; <em>Ryan Goins out-performs Andrelton Simmons by WARP.</em><br />
Nick &#8211; <em>Inspired by Venditte, Jose Bautista decides to switch hit this season. The resulting success leads him to ask for $35M/season.</em><br />
Matt &#8211; <em>Jesus Montero harnesses his namesake and outhits everyone else on the team.</em><br />
Steven &#8211; <em>Josh Thole will have real value just by letting Martin avoid the knuckleball.</em><br />
Tammy &#8211; <em>John Gibbons becomes the most beloved manager in baseball as the league gets a load of his personality.</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>There you have it. The BP Toronto Bold Predictions for 2016. Everything on this page will happen, even the stuff that contradicts the other stuff. We&#8217;re just that good.</p>
<p>Enjoy the 2016 season, Blue Jays fans</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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