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	<title>Toronto &#187; Richard Lee-Sam</title>
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	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>Ben Revere, Teoscar Hernandez, and the Power of Getting Ahead</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/27/ben-revere-teoscar-hernandez-and-the-power-of-getting-ahead/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/27/ben-revere-teoscar-hernandez-and-the-power-of-getting-ahead/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Jun 2018 10:30:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16167</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ben Revere stepped up to the plate in the ninth inning of Game 6 of the 2015 American League Championship Series against the Royals with his team down 3-2 in the series and 4-3 in the game. Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar, the tying and go-ahead runs, were in scoring position with just one out. The name [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ben Revere stepped up to the plate in the ninth inning of Game 6 of the 2015 American League Championship Series against the Royals with his team down 3-2 in the series and 4-3 in the game. Dalton Pompey and Kevin Pillar, the tying and go-ahead runs, were in scoring position with just one out. The name Ben Revere wasn&#8217;t exactly one to strike fear into opponents&#8217; hearts. But in a situation that begged for a slap single to cash in some runners, he was a slap-single hitter. The Jays had the Royals right where they wanted them.</p>
<p>In a 2-1 count, Revere took a high fastball from Wade Davis that seemed like it was off the plate. Instead, home plate umpire Jeff Nelson called it strike two, evening up the count. Revere struck out on the next pitch, and Josh Donaldson later grounded out to end the game and the Blue Jays&#8217; World Series hopes.</p>
<p>With one split-second decision, Nelson may have singlehandedly altered Blue Jays history. And the agonizing part is that, three years later, we know mathematically that the Blue Jays had a good chance of at least tying the game that ultimately ended their season &#8212; if only the call had gone the other way.</p>
<p>Out of all the things for Blue Jays fans to be hung up on, even three years later, that strike two call is the most common one, and for good reason: In 2015, Ben Revere slashed .280/.316/.344 when he was in a 2-2 count. When he was up 3-1, that line became .318/.605/.545. Going from a 31.8% success rate down to 28% is a huge swing, and it could have been the difference for Toronto.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/chart.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-16172" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/chart.png" alt="chart" width="600" height="600" /></a></p>
<p>Hitters, even those that are relatively average at the plate like Ben Revere was, turn into stars when they have the count in their favour.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">* * *</p>
<p>Teoscar Hernandez made a great first impression and gave fans some hope in a lost season when he clubbed eight home runs last September. But while he had all the power in the world for 26 games, he struck out way too many times for anybody to think that he had an outfield job locked down. 37.9% of his plate appearances ended via the K, and it wasn’t like his 6.3% walk rate made things better. He was home run or bust, which was a large reason for him starting the 2018 season in Buffalo.</p>
<p>Things look to be different for Teoscar. He bookended a dismal May with really good months in April and June, and suddenly, his roster spot isn’t in question anymore. But even though some in Toronto may think that the outfielder is undergoing a Jose Bautista-like transformation, we’ve seen a lot of the same, save for two differences.</p>
<p>First, let’s talk about what <em>hasn’t</em> changed.</p>
<p><strong> His defense</strong></p>
<p>Teoscar Hernandez in both left and right field can turn a simple play into an adventure. Both his DRS and UZR/150 are in the negatives. He brings positive value to the Blue Jays, but none of it is in the field.</p>
<p><strong>He can barrel the ball</strong></p>
<p>Hernandez didn’t get much attention for this last season because he only appeared 26 games, but he was actually one of the best in the league at making good contact. Here’s a list of players with a better barrels/plate appearance than Hernandez this season: Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez. That’s it. Hernandez has been elite at making good contact when he doesn’t swing and miss.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Screen-Shot-2018-06-27-at-12.05.46-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-16169" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Screen-Shot-2018-06-27-at-12.05.46-AM-1024x139.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 12.05.46 AM" width="1024" height="139" /></a></p>
<p><strong> </strong><strong>His plate discipline is still horrid</strong></p>
<p>Hernandez’ penchant for swinging at, well, everything thrown his way earned him a reputation in the few short weeks he played in 2017. In 2018, not much has changed. Going into Tuesday’s game, his O-Swing rate, meaning pitches chased outside of the zone, ranked 41th worst out of a possible 167 qualified hitters. He’s still swinging – and missing – at the same rate he did last year.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Screen-Shot-2018-06-27-at-12.04.42-AM.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-16168 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Screen-Shot-2018-06-27-at-12.04.42-AM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 12.04.42 AM" width="664" height="102" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>There’s one major thing I’ve omitted from that table: his strikeout rates. Even though everything else remained the same, Hernandez saw his K% plummet from a disgusting 37.9 to a workable 25.3 mark. How could everything else involving his plate discipline look similar but still have his strikeouts drop by a sizeable margin?</p>
<p>That leads us back to our good friend Ben Revere.</p>
<p>If Ben Revere, a below league average hitter known primarily for slap singles, becomes a star when the count’s in his favour, a guy that can really put the hurt on the ball should absolutely rake when in the same situation. Right?</p>
<p>Last season, when Teoscar Hernandez was in the driver&#8217;s seat and ahead in the count, he slashed .125/.300/.375. No, that isn’t a typo. With the pitcher at his mercy, Hernandez slugged an embarrassing .375 despite, being great at barreling the ball. This season, he’s hitting .347/.467/.707 when ahead in the count. The difference between 2017 and 2018 Teoscar Hernandez – aside from a little job security – is that he’s taken what he’s being given and hurting the pitcher with it.</p>
<p>To dig a bit deeper, this what Hernandez did when sitting in a favourable count (via Baseball Savant):</p>
<p><strong>2017</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Screen-Shot-2018-06-27-at-12.07.19-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-16171" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Screen-Shot-2018-06-27-at-12.07.19-AM-1024x486.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 12.07.19 AM" width="1024" height="486" /></a></p>
<p><strong>2018</strong></p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Screen-Shot-2018-06-27-at-12.07.34-AM.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-16170" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/06/Screen-Shot-2018-06-27-at-12.07.34-AM-1024x490.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-06-27 at 12.07.34 AM" width="1024" height="490" /></a></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Just by looking at these graphs, you wouldn&#8217;t have thought that he had a huge advantage in 2017. The majority of the time, pitchers got back into counts via called or swinging strikes or foul balls. He only put 8.3% of those pitches into play. In 2018, he&#8217;s making the most of what he&#8217;s being given, and it&#8217;s leading to success.</p>
<p>Teoscar Hernandez might not be the patient Jose Bautista that works counts and grinds pitchers down, but he&#8217;ll do just fine if he continues to control the at bat when he gets the upper hand. The lottery ticket that was acquired for Francisco Liriano at last year&#8217;s trade deadline might just cash out big time.</p>
<div class="modal-image-setImageMetadata">
<p class="ng-binding"><em>Lead Photo © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Problem with Osuna&#8217;s Pitch Mix</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/07/roberto-osunas-pitch-problem/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/07/roberto-osunas-pitch-problem/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 07 May 2018 14:04:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15808</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What happens when a confident closer loses his fastball? Through three seasons, Roberto Osuna has become a star closing out games for the Toronto Blue Jays. The now 23-year-old right hander has brought stability to a volatile world of bullpens. The 2015 season doesn’t seem like it was that long ago, but from the time [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What happens when a confident closer loses his fastball?</p>
<p>Through three seasons, Roberto Osuna has become a star closing out games for the Toronto Blue Jays. The now 23-year-old right hander has brought stability to a volatile world of bullpens. The 2015 season doesn’t seem like it was that long ago, but from the time Osuna made his major league debut in the Bronx to now, when he’s the team’s unquestioned closer, only two other members of that original bullpen remain: Aaron Loup and Aaron Sanchez.</p>
<p>Osuna’s ability to come out of the ‘pen and throw gas in the mid-to-high 90s with precision is the reason why he’s one of the elite closers in the league. From 2015-2017, Osuna’s 6.15 K/BB put him in some pretty elite company, ranking him third among all relievers behind only Kenley Jansen and Andrew Miller.</p>
<p>Then, last year, something weird happened in June: Osuna lost velocity on his fastball, making him back off the heater that he had a ton of success with and opting to mix in a cutter that he hadn’t really used that much. Whether it was aches and pains or the anxiety trouble he was dealing with around that time, Osuna really shied away from his fourseamer. The fastball, once maxing out at 98MPH range, only topped out at 95 on good days, so he leaned on the cutter more, pretty much using the fastball as his third pitch.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/OsunaMovement.jpeg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-15814" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/OsunaMovement-1024x683.jpeg" alt="OsunaMovement" width="500" height="333" /></a> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/OsunaVelo.jpeg"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-15813" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/OsunaVelo-1024x683.jpeg" alt="OsunaVelo" width="500" height="333" /></a></p>
<p>But as time went on, his slider – a devastating secondary pitch to put batters away – became a casualty thanks to the lost velocity. The whiff rate on his slider in his first two seasons was at 25.8%. Midway through June, it was at 36.7% as he collected 19 of his 34 strikeouts with it. Obviously these are arbitrary end points, but look at how his slider lost effectiveness over the course of just over a month.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Screen-Shot-2018-05-06-at-10.24.53-PM.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-15811 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Screen-Shot-2018-05-06-at-10.24.53-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-05-06 at 10.24.53 PM" width="572" height="172" /></a></p>
<p>There’s no question that with his putaway pitch not getting the results he’s accustomed to – and his fastball not having the life it did earlier in the season – Osuna struggled mightily. While he did continue to strike out hitters, he also gave up a lot of runs. Over that 17.2 inning sample from the end of July to early September, Osuna’s ERA was 7.64. Those 15 earned runs allowed over 18 appearances were over half his season total of 24. Thankfully, Osuna regained his velocity and didn’t allow a single baserunner for his last five appearances of the season.</p>
<p>This signaled the end of the cutter experiment. Osuna didn’t pitch for nine days and then came back throwing in the mid 90s again, topping out at 97, something he hadn’t done since June.</p>
<p>In 2018, Osuna has gone back to using his trusted fastball often, throwing it just over 57% of the time on the young season. Unfortunately for the Blue Jays, Osuna’s slider isn’t getting the swings and misses we’re used to seeing. Coming into today, the closer known for ninth inning punchouts only has a K/9 of just 7.5.</p>
<p>Which leads me to the thing that we&#8217;ve probably all been missing: in March of last year, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/13/roberto-osuna-cutter-holding-slider-hostage/" target="_blank">Kyle Matte warned against Osuna keeping the cutter in his repertoire</a>, mostly due to the fact that he <em>already</em> had a pitch with the same movement profile in the slider. Don’t get me wrong, Roberto Osuna is still a great reliever in the major leagues, but I fear that with both, he’ll continue to see these results, especially with the slider.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"> <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Screen-Shot-2018-05-06-at-10.13.34-PM.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-15809 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Screen-Shot-2018-05-06-at-10.13.34-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-05-06 at 10.13.34 PM" width="576" height="246" /></a></p>
<p>What initially started as a red flag because a top-tier closer lost velocity turned into a red flag because his putout pitch looks like it’s been rendered almost ineffective. Thankfully for the Blue Jays and Roberto Osuna, the solution is simple: drop the cutter.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How the Blue Jays Rotation Stacks Up With the Division</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/28/how-the-blue-jays-rotation-stacks-up-with-the-division/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/28/how-the-blue-jays-rotation-stacks-up-with-the-division/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 28 Mar 2018 10:37:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15539</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We’re almost at the start of the 2018 season. There’s been a lot of talk on Blue Jays Twitter about how Toronto’s rotation stacks up against the rest of the teams in their division. With the return of the American League Beast, the Blue Jays are going to need all the help they can get [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We’re almost at the start of the 2018 season. There’s been a lot of talk on Blue Jays Twitter about how Toronto’s rotation stacks up against the rest of the teams in their division. With the return of the American League Beast, the Blue Jays are going to need all the help they can get if they’re going to keep pace with the powerhouse Yankees and Red Sox. Could their pitching staff be an advantage?</p>
<p>Before we begin, <a href="https://twitter.com/RLeesam/status/976971022137147392" target="_blank">I polled my Twitter followers</a> just to get a rough consensus of where they think their team&#8217;s pitching staff stands. This is devoid of any scientific research or analysis, but I wanted to get a feel for things. Out of 411 people that voted, only 25 people thought that the Blue Jays had a bottom-tier rotation in the East, which is surprising given the general pessimism surrounding the club on social media. But I&#8217;m inclined to agree with Twitter&#8217;s assessment. I would definitely take the Blue Jays&#8217; five-man rotation over the four-man one in Tampa, and over the notoriously weak rotation in Baltimore, even with the addition of Alex Cobb.</p>
<p>Now let’s look at some projections. I used Baseball Prospectus’ PECOTA along with FanGraphs Depth Charts, which is a mix of their Steamer and ZIPS projections, but with playing time expectations factored in. Let’s see what BP and FG think of the rotations in the AL East. I also included everybody’s 2017 stats for the sake of comparison.</p>
<p>(Disclaimer: These aren’t going to be rotations that are set in stone on Opening Day. Rather, these are what the rotations <em>should</em> be for a large chunk of the season. And to avoid any confusion, I’ve listed the teams in alphabetical order. I also added Matt Andriese to the Rays rotation in case they balk at the four-man idea, and because he made 17 starts for them last year.)</p>
<h3>Baltimore Orioles</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.09.24-PM.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-15540" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.09.24-PM-1024x146.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-03-26 at 9.09.24 PM" width="1024" height="146" /></a></p>
<p>Let’s just say that if the Orioles find a way to do damage this season, it’ll be because of their bats.</p>
<p>The Orioles added Alex Cobb to their rotation over the offseason, and both projections still seem to think that they’re going to be the worst in the division. It’s so bad that I’d advise Orioles fans to skip looking at these projections and scroll down to Boston. They are definitively the worst rotation in the East.</p>
<p>Cobb, Bundy, and Gausman are probably closer to their FanGraphs projections, but unless Gausman returns to his 2016 form and promising starter Bundy takes the next step this year, that Orioles rotation is a whole lot of nope. Before the Cobb signing, it looked like the fifth starter race was coming down to either Gabriel Ynoa or Miguel Castro. Yeah, that guy. For real.</p>
<p>At least Orioles fans can be happy that they aren’t going to watch Ubaldo Jimenez make any more starts for their team.</p>
<h3>Boston Red Sox</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.01.48-PM.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-15542" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.01.48-PM-1024x152.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-03-26 at 9.01.48 PM" width="1024" height="152" /></a></p>
<p>Going into the season, the Red Sox pitching situation is a bit of a mess. Drew Pomeranz, who already has a job in the rotation when he’s healthy, is starting the season on the DL due to a forearm strain at the beginning of this month, but pitched in a minor league game a few days ago. Eduardo Rodriguez (left knee) and Stephen Wright (right knee), who each could have been the fifth starter, will both start on the DL as well. Manager Alex Cora announced that 27-year-old lefty Brian Johnson will take over one of those spots in the interim.</p>
<p>Barring any setbacks, I don’t think either should be out for long, but I included Rodriguez due to the fact that when Wright returns, he’s going to serve a 15-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy.</p>
<p>Up at the top, you have the obvious. Chris Sale is the best pitcher in the division and a perennial Cy Young candidate. After him, the Red Sox are hoping that their 30-million-dollar man David Price is completely healthy. Price is now 32 and is hoping to return to his old form after his elbow injury scare last year. Both PECOTA and FanGraphs think that he’ll finish in the 165-innings pitched range, and even though you aren’t getting 25-year-old David Price production, he should still be pretty good.</p>
<p>Add in Pomeranz and 2016 Cy Young winner Rick Porcello and – when healthy – you’ve got a very strong Red Sox rotation. PECOTA has them at 12.8 Wins Above Replacement Player, tops in the division.</p>
<h3>New York Yankees</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.09.01-PM.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-15543" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.09.01-PM-1024x152.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-03-26 at 9.09.01 PM" width="1024" height="152" /></a></p>
<p>The goal for the New York Yankees starters this season? Just get it to the bullpen. The Yankees ‘pen will be devastating again this year. If their starting five can be even average and get to the sixth or seventh with leads, they’ll win a lot of games.</p>
<p>But the Yankees rotation is actually pretty good. If Chris Sale is the best pitcher in the division, I think Luis Severino is second. Severino has true ace potential and demonstrated it last year. They won’t need guys like CC Sabathia (age) and Masahiro Tanaka (partially torn UCL) to be their former dominant selves. They just need to pitch quality innings, which is something that both PECOTA and FanGraphs seem to think will happen.</p>
<p>1&#8211;5, they should be a top-three rotation in the division, which will definitely play given the bullpen and the mammoth men in their lineup.</p>
<h3>Tampa Bay Rays</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.09.15-PM.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-15544" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.09.15-PM-1024x148.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-03-26 at 9.09.15 PM" width="1024" height="148" /></a></p>
<p>The joke online is that people thought the Rays elected to run a four-man rotation due to budgetary restrictions, or something else related to being a small market team. In reality, the Rays traded Jake Odorizzi because they had the starting depth and prospects Brent Honeywell and Jose De Leon were supposed to make the jump at some point this year. Not even a month after the Odorizzi trade, both Honeywell and De Leon were slated to undergo Tommy John surgery.</p>
<p>While the Rays do have enough starters to go with five guys, it looks like to start the season they’ll go with a four-man rotation, mixing in a few bullpen days. I’m not sure how long this will last, but like I said, relievers like Andriese and Austin Pruitt started games for the Rays last year, so they can always be stretched out if the Rays decide to change their mind.</p>
<p>PECOTA and FanGraphs have them comfortably in third place in the division, and I get that Chris Archer is really good, but I’m not sure unestablished names like Blake Snell and Jacob Faria – with a combined 305 career MLB innings pitched between them – as well as Nathan Eovaldi, who’s coming off of Tommy John, will outperform the Blue Jays 1&#8211;5.</p>
<p>If you’re in need of a bullpen game, arms for a doubleheader, or expecting to play well into extra innings, the Rays are an attractive choice. Other than that, they’re at least better than the Orioles.</p>
<h3>Toronto Blue Jays</h3>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.09.08-PM.png"><img class="alignnone size-large wp-image-15545" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/Screen-Shot-2018-03-26-at-9.09.08-PM-1024x147.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-03-26 at 9.09.08 PM" width="1024" height="147" /></a></p>
<p>Last season, the Blue Jays brought back pretty much the same rotation that led all AL starters in ERA in 2016, only for Aaron Sanchez to get hurt and an already erratic Francisco Liriano to implode. This season, with a clean bill of health for Sanchez and a new groundball pitcher in Jaime Garcia, the Blue Jays will try to get back to their former dominance. The Jays strength is that their 1&#8211;5 is really good, even if they have some depth concerns after Garcia.</p>
<p>I don’t think many people outside of the Toronto sports bubble are expecting much from this group, but I really do think they’re equal to the New York Yankees, if not better.</p>
<p>New York has the more popular names, and probably the bigger star in Luis Severino, but Toronto simply has more quality. Let’s look at a guy like Sonny Gray. He was a big splash at the deadline last year. Looking at PECOTA and FanGraphs, he projected to pitch around 170 innings with a high-three to low four-ERA, walk about three and strike out eight. From 2015-2016, Marco Estrada pitched a quiet 346.1 innings with a 3.38 ERA, walking 2.99 per nine and striking out 7.41 per nine. Aside from a string of <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/marco-estrada-talks-reason-for-midseason-slide/c-264783074" target="_blank">ten starts</a> last year that he actually attributed to a lack of sleep, <a href="https://twitter.com/JoshuaHowsam/status/909237459254431744" target="_blank">he actually didn’t pitch as badly as his 4.98 ERA would indicate</a>.</p>
<p>Then compare the two leftys in J.A. Happ and Jordan Montgomery. Happ got Cy Young votes in 2016, then got hurt in 2017, but still finished with a higher WARP (3) than Mongtomery (2.1), who was a rookie last season. If I had to pick between starters 3-5 on the Yankees and the Blue Jays, I think I’d take Happ, Estrada, and Garcia over Gray, Montgomery, and a 37-year-old Sabathia.</p>
<p>But, really, it all comes down to this: The X-factor in this rotation is Aaron Sanchez. Sanchez is like David Price. If he stays healthy enough to give you 200 innings pitched as your second-best starter, you’re a lot closer to the Red Sox and Yankees at the top than you are to the Orioles at the bottom. 2017 was supposed to be the year Sanchez took the next huge step forward, and he was only hindered by blisters. I really don’t think it’s a stretch to think that he’s better than Masahiro Tanaka right now, especially with his UCL issues.</p>
<p>In a division with the powerhouse Yankees and Red Sox, an advantage like a quality starting rotation can make a difference. Especially when you face those two 38 times in a season and are expected to fight for a wild card spot. The Jays should be in the hunt this season, even going by these projections, but with a healthy Stroman and Sanchez throwing close to a combined 400 innings, the sky really is the limit for this team. We saw it at the end of the 2016 season, when the starters dragged a slumping lineup into the playoffs with a strong September. If the starters are a strength, this team can wash the bad memories from 2017 out of the minds of Blue Jays fans.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How Worried Should We Be About Justin Smoak&#8217;s September Struggles?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/26/how-worried-should-we-be-about-justin-smoaks-september/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/02/26/how-worried-should-we-be-about-justin-smoaks-september/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 26 Feb 2018 11:47:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15215</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As the calendar inches towards March, the Blue Jays find themselves entering a season where almost everything would have go according to plan in order to be in the wild card race come September. In past springs, you had the idea that if Justin Smoak could chip in on offense, the team would be in a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As the calendar inches towards March, the Blue Jays find themselves entering a season where almost everything would have go according to plan in order to be in the wild card race come September. In past springs, you had the idea that if Justin Smoak could chip in on offense, the team would be in a great spot with sluggers Donaldson, Bautista, and Encarnacion leading the way. Now, coming off the best season of his career, Justin Smoak is expected to be one of main contributors at the plate with two of those three gone.</p>
<p>Try to remember what your opinion of Justin Smoak was pre-2017. Not very good, right?</p>
<p>It’s very hard to find a two-year, $8.5M contract extension with a team option that was met with that much anger and confusion. And for good reason. During Smoak’s first two seasons in Toronto, he was a strikeout machine, fanning in almost 30 per cent of his plate appearances. The offensive production which you would expect from a corner infield position wasn’t really there as Smoak slashed .222/.306/.430 over 258 games between 2015 and 2016. So what did the Blue Jays see in him to warrant that extension during the 2016 season?</p>
<p>2015 Justin Smoak was actually pretty good at barrelling the ball and putting it into play with authority. That year, 8.2 per cent of Smoak’s plate appearances ended in barrels, good for 22<sup>nd</sup> among all hitters with at least 50 batted ball events. That number dipped to 6.5 in 2016 as Smoak struggled heavily. In 2017, he rebounded and was near the top of the league in barrels again. The rank in parentheses are his league ranks among hitters with at least 50 batted ball events that year.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Pic-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15255" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Pic-1.png" alt="Pic 1" width="341" height="88" /></a></p>
<p>Maybe the Blue Jays knew something, as Smoak evolved into one of the best hitters in the game during the first half of the 2017 season, even earning his first all-star nod. What’s surprising is that he also improved his plate discipline. Smoak’s strikeout rate fell from 33% to 20% in just one season. So not only was he putting good balls in play, he was having fewer unproductive plate appearances.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/SmoakK.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15217" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/SmoakK.png" alt="SmoakK" width="500" height="300" /></a></p>
<p>But as a meaningless season began to wind down, Smoak went cold. Near the end of August, he missed two games with a calf injury, and upon returning to the lineup, he wasn’t the same. Smoak went from hitting .291/.364/.576 on August 25<sup>th</sup> with the finish line in sight to ending the year at .270/.355 /.529. Was it a Cinderella-esque nightmare that caused his OPS to plummet from .940 to .883 in just 31 games? It’s a pretty small sample size, but should Blue Jays fans be worried about their first baseman returning to his old form, especially in a season that they need production from anywhere they can get it?</p>
<h3><strong>The Bad News</strong></h3>
<p>In his last 31 games, Smoak’s fly ball rate soared. This may seem like a good thing because he can’t beat you with his legs and you want to see your 6’4, 220-pound slugger put the ball in the air, but the quality of most of his flyballs wasn&#8217;t that good. The former barrel machine just wasn&#8217;t able to make good contact and the result was many outs made in the air due to his exit velocity dropping.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Pic-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15256" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Pic-2.png" alt="Pic 2" width="441" height="87" /></a></p>
<p>Here’s what his launch angle charts looked like for fly balls and popups for three date ranges; the old Justin Smoak between 2015-2016, Smoak’s breakout in games 1-127 in 2017, and his struggles to end the year in his last 31 games, respectively.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>2015-2016</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Smoak-2015-2016.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15219" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Smoak-2015-2016.png" alt="Smoak 2015-2016" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>2017 Breakout (First 127 Games)</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Smoak-20171.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15220" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Smoak-20171.png" alt="Smoak 2017(1)" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p><strong><span style="text-decoration: underline">Final 31 Games of 2017</span></strong></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Smoak-2017-2.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15221" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Smoak-2017-2.png" alt="Smoak 2017 (2)" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>Smoak was really getting under the ball to end the year, with considerably more balls being hit with a launch angle above 40 degrees than any other trajectory. This is something that can be further illustrated with the image below. The red zone is the barrel zone and where you want to be, and the green dots are hits. The first picture sjows Smoak performed on fly balls in his first 127 games and the second one show the final 31 appearances.</p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>First 127 Games</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/SmoakPop1.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15222" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/SmoakPop1.png" alt="SmoakPop1" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p><span style="text-decoration: underline"><strong>Final 31 Games</strong></span></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/SmoakPop2.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-15223" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/SmoakPop2.png" alt="SmoakPop2" width="400" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>There were simply fewer balls hit with authority towards the end of the year. From August 26<sup>th</sup> to the end of the season, Smoak hit just .152 on balls in the air with an isolated slugging percentage of .273 &#8211; a measure of power and extra-base hits. That last number may not sound quite so bad, but while a .273 ISO would be great in insolation, this is just on flyballs where most balls are either home runs or extra-base hits. For reference, among players with 250 fly balls over the last three years, the worst three ISOs on flyballs are Yadier Molina&#8217;s .283, Nick Markakis&#8217; .261, and Alcides Escobar&#8217;s horrible .173. So clearly Smoak was struggling.</p>
<h3>The Good News</h3>
<p>Aside from those 31 games, Justin Smoak has been <em>really</em> good at hammering the ball in the air in his Blue Jays career. How good has he been? From the 2015 season to the end of 2017, Justin Smoak had an isolated slugging percentage of .662 on fly balls. That&#8217;s a <em>far</em> cry from the .273 to end the season and actually ranks him 9<sup>th</sup> league wide among players with at least 250 fly balls over the three seasons.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Pic-3.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15257" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Pic-3.png" alt="Pic 3" width="451" height="426" /></a></p>
<p>It&#8217;s also interesting to point out that three other Blue Jays crack the top 20: Josh <a href="https://youtu.be/Xrhq29Kd7Hs?t=2m46s" target="_blank">“they don’t pay you for ground balls”</a> Donaldson, Kendrys Morales, and newcomer Randal Grichuk. This current front office is responsible bringing in Morales and Grichuk the past two offseasons, as well as extending Smoak in 2016, which makes me think that the signing was less random than it seemed at the time.</p>
<p>Another piece of good news is that even when his power suffered, Smoak didn’t revert to the subpar plate discipline that we’ve seen from him in previous years. He still wasn’t whiffing as much as he did in the past or even chasing pitches outside of the zone. Things would look a lot bleaker if he was striking out at the 30% clip we were used to.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Pic-4.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15258" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/02/Pic-4.png" alt="Pic 4" width="500" height="86" /></a></p>
<p>There could also be a physical reason for some of Smoak&#8217;s problems. The tall switch-hitter swung considerably less when he started to struggle, meaning something could have been bothering him. <a href="https://www.mlb.com/news/blue-jays-justin-smoak-on-high-expectations/c-266686748" target="_blank">According to a Gregor Chisholm report earlier this week</a>, Smoak said that he had patella tendinitis in one of his knees in addition to fouling a ball off his foot in early September. Now I won&#8217;t pinpoint his sudden dip in fly ball exit velocity, the inability to barrel the ball, or reluctance to swing late in the season on an injury, but it&#8217;s still a possible cause and definitely one worth mentioning and monitoring.</p>
<p>Smoak&#8217;s workload also was different last year. Judging by his comments to Chisholm, it seemed like he wore down a little bit as the season progressed. His 158 games in 2017 were the most he&#8217;s ever played in a season, well above his previous high of 132. Now that he&#8217;s aware of the rigors of that type of playing time, Smoak worked on conditioning his body to handle that kind of toll.</p>
<p>PECOTA projects him to hit .240/.326/.430 this year, which seems a bit conservative now that we know what he can do. If a healthy Justin Smoak can maintain that plate discipline that never waned all year and keep hitting the ball in the air well, pretty much the only thing that he’s consistently done well over his Blue Jays tenure, we could see another campaign for a Justin Smoak all-star spot. Even if he doesn&#8217;t, that two-year, $8.5M deal with the 2019 option still looks like great value for the slugger.</p>
<p>There are a lot of ifs involving Justin Smoak, but that’s pretty much the motto of the rest of the 2018 Blue Jays. This team needs almost everything to go right, but if it does, Toronto should be in the wild card conversation in a few months.</p>
<p>#IfOnly</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Why Randal Grichuk Means the Blue Jays Should Trade Kevin Pillar</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/22/why-randal-grichuk-means-the-blue-jays-should-trade-kevin-pillar/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 22 Jan 2018 14:18:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15020</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The mantra of this Blue Jays offseason seems to be something to the to the tune of “raise the floor.” Enough has been said about the 2017 Blue Jays having needed regular appearances from guys like Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins, so I won’t get into it here. We know that Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The mantra of this Blue Jays offseason seems to be something to the to the tune of “raise the floor.”</p>
<p>Enough has been said about the 2017 Blue Jays having needed regular appearances from guys like Darwin Barney and Ryan Goins, so I won’t get into it here. We know that Aledmys Diaz and Yangervis Solarte should, at worst, provide a level of offensive production better than we got from last year. So let&#8217;s look at the outfield instead.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays welcomed back #TransactionFriday last week by trading Dominic Leone as well as fifth-ranked prospect Conner Greene to St. Louis in exchange for Randal Grichuk. On the surface, this looks like a confusing move, as it gives a crowded outfield full of third-best outfielders even another one.</p>
<p>The gut reaction to the trade is something like wanting a Mercedes but then getting another Honda Civic with a tire missing. Sure, two years ago that would have been great, but why do I need this now, where am I going to put it, and why did I have to give you my kitchen for it?</p>
<p>Grichuk is notorious for a sky-high strikeout rate and the inability to walk. In 1998, this wouldn’t have been seen as the worst move. In the league today, you sort of need somebody with an OBP over .300 if they’re going to start a large chunk of games, especially with low-walk guys like Teoscar Hernandez and Kevin Pillar in the mix for starting jobs.</p>
<p>We know about the bad; Randal Grichuk strikes out way too much. But it gets worse: of all players with at least 1000 plate appearances from the 2015-2017 seasons, Grichuk’s 0.20 BB/K rate ranks third lowest out of 87.</p>
<p>Even knowing this, the Blue Jays still have the opportunity to &#8220;raise the floor&#8221; even more, while saving themselves a little bit of money. Now, I’m not going to don a top hat and try to sell your smalltown a monorail named Randal Grichuk, but the trade actually makes sense if the Blue Jays see him as an upgrade from Kevin Pillar.</p>
<p>At this point, Pillar is a known commodity in Toronto. You aren’t getting much from him other than his defense, which has been elite in recent memory. His alarming lack of power and plate discipline were often forgiven due to that elite play at a premium defensive position. The problem: Pillar wasn’t all that great patrolling CF in 2017.</p>
<p>Pillar’s UZR/150 playing CF in 2015 and 2016 has been up to par with what you’d expect. He ranked third among all qualified center fielders in 2015 behind Kevin Kiermaier and Billy Hamilton with 16. In 2016, he finished first among all qualified CFs at 26.3. The human vacuum Kiermaier was hurt for a large chunk of the season, but would have still finished behind Pillar at 24.2.</p>
<p>Pillar’s defense went south in 2017, registering just a 7.4 UZR/150, which is still really good, but not at the level we’re accustomed to seeing.</p>
<p>I use UZR/150 for comparisons sake. Grichuk has logged about a third of the innings Pillar has at centre field, but has still played respectably in his limited amount of time there. In fact, Grichuk has been sneaky good defensively since the 2015 season.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/Grichuk.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-15021 size-full" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/Grichuk-e1516591560691.png" alt="Grichuk" width="501" height="301" /></a></p>
<p>I should mention the fact that the huge dip you see in 2016 is when Grichuk spent most of his time at CF in St. Louis and was slightly below average. In 2017, he only logged 29 innings in centre, which is why I also included his total UZR/150 at all positions over the three years.</p>
<p>Of course, we now have other ways of measuring defense beyond UZR (or DRS). Enter Statcast.</p>
<p>Statcast has been tracking catches based on a star system difficulty rating. Here&#8217;s how the stars break down by expected rate of catch:</p>
<p>1-Star catch: Out made with a catch probability of 91-95%</p>
<p>2-Star catch: Out made with a catch probability of 76-90%</p>
<p>3-Star catch: Out made with a catch probability of 51-75%</p>
<p>4-Star catch: Out made with a catch probability of 26-50%</p>
<p>5-Star catch: Out made with a catch probability of 0-25%</p>
<p>Here&#8217;s how Pillar and Grichuk compared in 2017:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/Screen-Shot-2018-01-21-at-9.57.45-PM.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-15026 size-large" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/Screen-Shot-2018-01-21-at-9.57.45-PM-1024x78.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-01-21 at 9.57.45 PM" width="1024" height="78" /></a></p>
<p>There’s more to catching a ball than just “see ball, get ball.” Kevin Pillar did make his regular highlight reel catches during 2017, but a lot of it was due to reading the ball wrong and recovering well or running a bit slower. Grichuk actually did better than Pillar when looking at catch probability data. Kevin Pillar didn’t make a single 5-Star catch in 2017, Grichuk made 1. Grichuk also had the advantage in every single category, with Pillar simply having had more opportunities due to playing time.</p>
<p>All of this shows that in 2017, Randal Grichuk was at least comparable to elite-glove only Kevin Pillar defensively. We haven’t even talked about what Grichuk can do with the bat.</p>
<p>Now, again, I’m not trying to sell you on Grichuk being an elite all-around player. I’m just trying to prove that he’s an upgrade over Kevin Pillar.</p>
<p>Like Pillar, Grichuk loves to swing the bat; both players ranked top-20 in swing% among all outfielders with at least 400 plate appearances last year. Unlike Pillar, Grichuk doesn’t always make contact. Pillar finished 11<sup>th</sup> among that group in contact rate at 84.8% while Grichuk was 58<sup>th</sup>, with 73.4%.</p>
<p>But when comparing two hitters that don’t walk, what’s the point of mentioning contact if it isn’t good contact?</p>
<p>The rare times that Grichuk made contact, good things usually happened. Grichuk’s average exit velocity last year was 89 MPH, good for 78<sup>th</sup> among all players with 100 batted ball events. Pillar was well below that at 85.5 MPH, which ranked 285<sup>th</sup>.  Since the 2015 season, Grichuk has an isolated slugging percentage of .247, which is almost double that of Pillar’s .127.</p>
<p>In recent years, the ability to barrel the baseball has been one of the main things people mention when talking about making good contact. I’d guess part of the reason why the Blue Jays acquired Grichuk was his barreling ability. He was near the top of the league in both barrels per batted ball event and barrels per plate appearance. These numbers jump out even further when you compare them to how Pillar did.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/Screen-Shot-2018-01-21-at-10.22.57-PM.png"><img class=" size-full wp-image-15028 aligncenter" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/Screen-Shot-2018-01-21-at-10.22.57-PM.png" alt="Screen Shot 2018-01-21 at 10.22.57 PM" width="544" height="106" /></a></p>
<p>Given that Grichuk is Pillar&#8217;s superior as a hitter and at least similar as a defender, it would make sense for Toronto to start exploring trades for their popular centre fielder. Pillar has his limitations, but just $3.25M for 2018 and with two more years of arbitration control available, he should still be plenty attractive to other teams. A move there could help the club upgrade in a number of ways, depending on the return, but it would also free up room for the team to add yet another, better, outfielder and actually field a strong unit out there. This is a club whose outfield was by all measures one of the three worst in baseball last year. Some of that will be mitigated by the loss of legend Jose Bautista and his poor season, but it can be further helped by jettisoning, and then upgrading, the poor-hitting Pillar.</p>
<p>With Anthony Alford starting to knock down the door in the minors, the Jays also have cover should Grichuk get hurt. They also have Granderson for a short-term fill-in if necessary and even potentially a finally-healthy Dalton Pompey at some point. So really, there are very few risks to trading Pillar, but oh-so-much upside.</p>
<p>It wouldn&#8217;t be popular, but every marginal win counts and this team needs a lot of them.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How to Build the Best Blue Jay of All-Time</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/28/how-to-build-the-perfect-blue-jay/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/28/how-to-build-the-perfect-blue-jay/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 28 Dec 2017 12:49:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14725</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sports media coverage is sometimes maddening. Even more so when you’re the general manager of a team in one of the biggest North American cities that’s also starved for success. After roster suggestions from family, friends, his barber, random people on the street, and scrolling through Twitter on one of his four ghost accounts, Ross [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sports media coverage is sometimes maddening. Even more so when you’re the general manager of a team in one of the biggest North American cities that’s also starved for success. After roster suggestions from family, friends, his barber, random people on the street, and scrolling through Twitter on one of his four ghost accounts, Ross Atkins has long reached his breaking point.</p>
<p>He woke up on a Friday morning in December, vowing not to talk, think, or consume any baseball thoughts. It’s going to be a peaceful day. He brushes his teeth, takes a look at himself and then uses the sharpie he has sitting on his sink to scrawl “everything is fine,” his mantra of the day, on the bathroom mirror.</p>
<p>He looks at his other thoughts over the past few weeks “Stand pat,” “trust the process,” and “stay the course.” He needs to get out of the house.</p>
<p>“It’s not easy being me,” Ross Atkins thinks to himself, speeding down the highway. His second full season as GM of the Toronto Blue Jays wasn’t a fun one. Most of his team got hurt, underperformed, or did a mixture of both and finished the season with just 76 wins.</p>
<p>For the Blue Jays, the stove has been as cold as the December air in Toronto. Other than a trade for infielder Aledmys Diaz hours after non-tendering Ryan Goins and Tom Koehler, there hasn’t been much action for them.</p>
<p>Atkins turns on his radio in an attempt to calm his nerves.</p>
<p>“Angels land both Shohei Otani and Zack Coz-”</p>
<p>*scrolls*</p>
<p>“Yankees acquire Giancarlo Stanton in massiv-”</p>
<p>*scrolls*</p>
<p>“Dee Gordon to play centre field for Marniers”</p>
<p>Atkins punches the dial, shutting off the radio, opting to listen to the engine of his car hum as it flies down the pavement. The silence is deafening. Instead of wonder why there were so many radio stations in the city all talking about baseball at the same time, his mind shifts to those three teams. The wildcard race in the American League is getting harder, as teams in the mix start to drastically improve their chances of playing baseball in October. He can feel the tension in the fanbase as the city braces for another playoff drought.</p>
<p>His team risks being in the same spot they were in 2017 if they don’t make a move. Both the Yankees and Red Sox seem to be a powerhouse in the American League East, and the Rays look like they’re going to finish near the bottom with the Orioles. Atkins knows he needs to act fast and do something to prevent another underwhelming season. But what?</p>
<p>There’s a delicate balance that goes into assembling a competitive baseball team. Being too aggressive with contracts and the way you manage your prospects could lead to crippling contracts or a dry farm system, preventing any success for the foreseeable future. Being conservative and stockpiling young players sets you up for heartbreak when they don’t all pan out. Sure, you won’t be the laughing stock of the league, but nobody loves being stuck in mediocrity.</p>
<p>He doesn’t know what to do. He’s tired of the incessant complaining from fans and media alike. Instead of being forced into getting fleeced by a GM a la Billy Beane in November 2014, he decides to take things into his own hands.</p>
<p>He’s going to take skills from Blue Jays present and past to create a super-player with the best mind, left and right arms, patience, power, legs, throwing arm, and glove.</p>
<p>The one catch is, he can only use each player once and they have to be known as a Blue Jay (min. three seasons), meaning stars that have had a short stint north of the border aren&#8217;t eligible. Sorry Rickey Henderson, Roger Clemens, and Paul Molitor.</p>
<h3></h3>
<h3><strong>Mind — </strong><strong>Marcus Stroman</strong></h3>
<p>The word hubris can be defined as “excessive pride or self-confidence,” does that ring a bell?</p>
<p>What’s the point of crafting the perfect player if they don’t even believe in the skills they have? Marcus Stroman is probably Marcus Stroman’s number one fan, but you need somebody that blurs the line between confident and cocky. The 26-year-old right hander will probably never take no for an answer, even when it seems like his goals are as far-fetched as tearing your ACL and then returning months later to join a pennant race. Oh wait…</p>
<p>Honourable mentions include Roy Halladay and his Hall of Fame work ethic, as well as the composed closers Tom Henke and Roberto Osuna.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Right Arm — </strong><strong>Roy Halladay</strong></h3>
<p>This was an easy pick.</p>
<p>Halladay spent 11 full seasons as a Blue Jay, finishing top-five in Cy Young five times, winning it in 2003. In the ten seasons from 2000-2009, Halladay threw 47 complete games, nine more than second-place Livan Hernandez.</p>
<p>He was often the lone bright spot on a number of underwhelming Blue Jays teams. But no matter where they were in the standings, Halladay’s dominance made every fifth day special. Someday, his plaque will be in Cooperstown, NY and hopefully he&#8217;ll be wearing a Blue Jays cap.</p>
<p>Honourable mentions go to seven-time all-star Dave Stieb, who was one of the best pitchers of the 1980s and Tom Henke (again).</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Left Arm — </strong><strong>Jimmy Key</strong></h3>
<p>Key was drafted by the Jays in the third round in 1982 and made his MLB debut two years later. He made 250 starts over nine seasons for the club, more than any lefty in Blue Jays history. Over that time, he had an ERA of 3.42, which ties Dave Stieb for the lowest ERA in a Blue Jays uniform by any starter with at least 500 innings pitched.</p>
<p>Blue Jays fans will remember him most for his effort in the 1992 World Series. Key surrendered just one run over 7.2 innings, scattering five hits, giving the Blue Jays a 3-1 series lead. The pitcher on the other side? Hall of Famer Tom Glavine.</p>
<p>Key came in for relief in Game 6 and Toronto won their first World Series three days later in Atlanta.</p>
<p>Honorable mention here is Brett Cecil, who posted a 3.04 ERA and struck out over 11 batters per nine innings as a member of the Blue Jays bullpen.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Patience — </strong><strong>Jose Bautista</strong></h3>
<p>Does Jose Bautista have patience? <a href="https://www.youtube.com/results?search_query=jose+bautista+ejected&amp;page=&amp;utm_source=opensearch" target="_blank">You tell me</a>.</p>
<p>Does Jose Bautista have plate discipline? He sure does.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista is known for being a strike zone connoisseur. That’s a nice way of saying that he usually knows where the zone is and when you’re wrong, he’ll let you hear about it. Since Bautista turned elite in the 2010 season, he&#8217;s put up a 15.5% walk rate, which is second to only to  Joey Votto. In three separate seasons, he’s walked more times than he has struck out. In fact, in this decade, there have been only 12 instances in which a player has struck out less than 120 times and walked more than 100. Jose Bautista has four of them. The other names on that list: Votto, Bryce Harper, Josh Donaldson, the Brewers version of Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera, the Cardinals version of Albert Pujols, and (somehow) Daric Barton.</p>
<p>You know it’s hard to beat Jose Bautista. <a href="https://youtu.be/6ypeVPfi_2E?t=1h9m7s" target="_blank">Sometimes he’ll just battle you for six minutes, twenty-three seconds in a ten-pitch at-bat that prompts two mound meetings</a>.</p>
<p>Honourable mention goes to John Olerud, who was a large part in the back-to-back World Series wins and walked much more than he struck out. His 1.20 BB/K is still tops in Blue Jays franchise history.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Power</strong> — <strong>Carlos Delgado</strong></h3>
<p>No Blue Jays player had the combination of longevity and elite play like Carlos Delgado. Blue Jays fans remember that sweet lefty swing and getting many souvenirs from the Puerto Rican slugger. He ranks second all time in games played with 1423 and first in home runs with 336.</p>
<p>After being drafted as a catcher and a failed conversion to left field, he stuck as a 1B/DH. Like another Blue Jays legend in Halladay, Delgado handled his demotion to Triple-A Syracuse well. He came back in 1996 as a 24-year-old and stayed for good, slashing .286/.397/.565 and winning three Silver Sluggers (1999, 2000, 2003) and a Hank Aaron Award (2000) until his final season in Toronto in 2004.</p>
<p>Honourable mentions go to Edwin Encarnacion, who like Bautista, re-invented himself in Toronto and became a primer slugger as well as Josh Donaldson, who in three years in Toronto has hit 111 home runs. Both will probably join Carlos Delgado on the Level of Excellence someday.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Legs — </strong><strong>Devon White</strong></h3>
<p>The fact that Devon White stole 126 over five seasons as a Blue Jay is impressive, but it doesn’t rank him top-five all time in franchise history and it isn’t why he’s on this list. Rather, it’s the ground he covered defensively. White was affectionately known as a gazelle by Blue Jays fans and you could tell why just by watching him patrol centre field at the SkyDome. <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GYA61SGGjbw&amp;t=9s" target="_blank">He started the most iconic play in Blue Jays history that wasn’t a home run.</a></p>
<p>Honourable mentions go to Lloyd Moseby and Roberto Alomar.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Arm — </strong><strong>Jesse Barfield</strong></h3>
<p><a href="https://twitter.com/RLeesam/status/885698408585023488" target="_blank">Just watch this throw from the man with 162 career outfield assists</a>. No hop, perfect strike, it&#8217;s just a cannon.</p>
<p>Honourable mentions go to Jose Bautista (pre-Delmon Young throw) and Raul Mondesi.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<h3><strong>Glove — </strong><strong>Roberto Alomar</strong></h3>
<p>The Hall of Famer could have appeared many times on this list, but his glove is a big part of the reason why he was immortalized in Cooperstown in 2011.</p>
<p>While Alomar only spent five years in Toronto, he’s known as an all-time Blue Jay, even having his number 12 retired by the club days after the Hall of Fame ceremony. Alomar was a star defensively at second base, winning gold gloves in each of his seasons in Toronto.</p>
<p>Many fans of the game, especially during the era Alomar played in, use errors and fielding percentage to gauge a player’s defensive skill. Sure, Alomar had a fielding percentage in the high .900s in each of his years in Toronto, but fielding percentage measures the ability to convert an out the player should have made. The reason Alomar had fans in awe wasn’t because he made the plays he was supposed to; it was because he found ways to defy logic to sometimes make the ones that nobody thought was possible.</p>
<p>Honourable mention goes to John McDonald.</p>
<p>Now that they have a super-player with the capability of hitting 45 home runs a season, drawing 100+ walks, stealing 30 bases, and throwing over 400 innings a year, the Blue Jays should be in at least the wild card hunt come September. Or maybe it all goes sideways again, and this FrankenJay hits the DL in the spring and doesn’t suit up the entire season.</p>
<p>Either way, Ross Atkins just bought himself a month of bliss.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Acquire SS Aledmys Diaz from Cardinals</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-aledmys-diaz-from-cardinals/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-aledmys-diaz-from-cardinals/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 02 Dec 2017 02:30:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Aledmys Diaz]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blue jays]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[J.B. Woodman]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Ryan Goins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[St.Louis Cardinals]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14434</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Moments after non-tendering Ryan Goins, the Toronto Blue Jays traded for St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Aledmys Diaz. Heading to St Louis is 22-year-old outfield prospect J.B. Woodman. The former second round pick was ranked the 28th best Jays prospect by MLB.com for the 2016 NL All Star. With the 27-year-old Diaz, Toronto now has insurance [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Moments after <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/01/blue-jays-acquire-aledmys-diaz-from-cardinals/" title="Blue Jays acquire Aledmys Diaz from Cardinals" target="_blank">non-tendering Ryan Goins</a>, the Toronto Blue Jays traded for St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Aledmys Diaz.</p>
<p>Heading to St Louis is 22-year-old outfield prospect J.B. Woodman. The former second round pick was ranked the 28th best Jays prospect by MLB.com for the 2016 NL All Star.</p>
<p>With the 27-year-old Diaz, Toronto now has insurance for the oft-injured middle infielders Devon Travis and Troy Tulowitzki, but with much better offensive upside than Ryan Goins. Diaz made the All Star team in 2016, hitting .300/.369/.510, but didn&#8217;t follow that up well, being sent down. Diaz finished the year slashing .259/.290/.392 for St. Louis. That line would still be an improvement for the backup infield spot, however. </p>
<p>Woodman played 96 games with the Lansing Lugnuts, hitting .240/.320/.378.</p>
<p>With Diaz, the Blue Jays probably see no further need to go out and pay more than they should for utility player Eduardo Nunez or any other infielder. After being sent down, Diaz was versatile, playing 55 innings at second base and 78 innings at third base for the Memphis Redbirds of the PCL. He also short, third, left, and second in the big leagues. While he is below-average defensively at shortstop, he is adequate at all the other spots and just good enough to handle SS on a temporary basis without killing you. </p>
<p>In the end, if Diaz is anything like he was in 2016, this is a steal for the Blue Jays and a truly viable starter. If not, it still looks pretty good as a backup and occasional fill-in. Diaz was pretty rough at the plate this year, but anybody looks good compared to Ryan Goins. If, as expected (and as his minor league track record suggests), Diaz&#8217; production is somewhere in between his 2016 and 2017 levels, he&#8217;s a great pickup and will be a very suitable third middle infielder behind Troy Tulowitzki and Devon Travis.</p>
<p>Nice move.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
Lead photo © Scott Kane-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>How Bad Luck Stopped the Blue Jays from Being Better</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/24/how-bad-luck-stopped-the-blue-jays-from-being-better/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/24/how-bad-luck-stopped-the-blue-jays-from-being-better/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 24 Nov 2017 12:56:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14297</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You’ve got to be good to be lucky, and lucky to be good, and in 2017, the Blue Jays were equal parts awful and unfortunate. Even before the season began, Dalton Pompey was sidelined with a concussion after stealing a base playing for Canada in the World Baseball Classic. Pompey, who was in the mix [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You’ve got to be good to be lucky, and lucky to be good, and in 2017, the Blue Jays were equal parts awful and unfortunate.</p>
<p>Even before the season began, Dalton Pompey was sidelined with a concussion after stealing a base playing for Canada in the World Baseball Classic. Pompey, who was in the mix for an outfield job in 2017, ended up playing in only 13 games between Dunedin and Buffalo.</p>
<p>After that, it began a parade to the disabled list as one by one, Jays went down. From inflammation to irritation, blisters to broken thumbs, calf injuries, broken hands, and everything else in between, the team had issues staying on the field. You just got the feeling that it wasn’t the Jays year when Darrell Ceciliani, called up simply because the Jays needed bodies, dislocated his shoulder on a home run two days after he joined the team and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AIqMk9tDhx4" target="_blank">MISSED THE REST OF THE SEASON</a>.</p>
<p>It may have been just the second month of the season, but surely that was a sign that nothing was going too right for this ball club the rest of the way in 2017, right?</p>
<p>The team with depth that could be described as suspect at best now had to find replacements for the replacements that also got hurt, and we were treated to watching a stream of Buffalo Bisons suit up. The Blue Jays were so bad and so hurt that we watched six different catchers throughout the year, and I’m pretty sure at least two of them were imaginary.</p>
<p>But despite the fact that they failed to stay on the field, it seemed as if the team that suited up every night was still really underperforming. The Jays ranked 26th in runs scored despite being middle of the pack in both walk and strikeout rates. They still had some of the firepower they possessed in the previous seasons, hitting 222 home runs, good for 10th league-wide, but pretty much everything else offensively didn’t seem like it ever clicked. Throughout the season, the Blue Jays just couldn’t get the big hit with men on that they needed desperately.</p>
<p>Only three Blue Jays actually hit well with RISP this year. First was perennial star Josh Donaldson, who slashed .359/.458/.705 in RISP situations. Second, was Justin Smoak, who broke out and hit well in all situations, including an .884 OPS with RISP. Lastly was Ryan Goins, who…is not good at all. With RISP, he hit .330/.368./.540. With the bases empty, he hit .199/.255/.286. Something tells me that the player with the career .611 OPS won’t be repeating a skill he doesn&#8217;t have.</p>
<p>The bad luck didn’t end with just roster moves. The Blue Jays got horrible luck on the balls that they put in play, especially with runners in scoring position. As a team, they hit .276 on balls in play, and that number fell to .258 with RISP, ranking eighth worst among all teams since the 2000 season.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/Screen-Shot-2017-11-21-at-3.10.22-PM.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-14301 size-large" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/Screen-Shot-2017-11-21-at-3.10.22-PM-1024x147.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-11-21 at 3.10.22 PM" width="1024" height="147" /></a></p>
<p>But let’s take that further. The Blue Jays .714 OPS with RISP looks somewhat respectable — compared to the other teams they’re grouped with — and was aided by their propensity for home runs and walks, but it doesn’t really show how dreadful they were. The Blue Jays didn’t only have one of the lowest BABIPs with runners in scoring position, their average with RISP was low as well, ranking 17th worst since 2000.  We can look at this even better by comparing the Blue Jays with teams that had a low RISP BABIP and a low average with RISP.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/Screen-Shot-2017-11-21-at-3.12.57-PM.png"><img class="aligncenter wp-image-14302 size-large" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/Screen-Shot-2017-11-21-at-3.12.57-PM-1024x407.png" alt="Screen Shot 2017-11-21 at 3.12.57 PM" width="1024" height="407" /></a></p>
<p>There’s a lot of green here.</p>
<p>Obviously, things change from year to year, and just simply bringing back the same squad and hoping for better luck won’t work, but pretty much every team – from 2012 World Champion San Francisco Giants to the basement-dwelling Chicago Cubs of three years ago – saw a considerable amount of regression to the mean, and the runs that came with it. Now, there are a lot of variables in this exercise. For example, the clear outlier we see here are the 2012 Tampa Bay Rays, who scored ten fewer runs than they did in 2011 despite hitting better with runners in scoring position. That’s primarily due to the fact that the Rays had 181 fewer plate appearances with RISP – which means less opportunities to score runs – than they did in 2011.</p>
<p>One thing worth mentioning is the GIDP column. Out of the 20 teams listed, only one – this year’s Padres – had less plate appearances, but the Jays led all 20 in double plays. Now, teams don’t shift as much with runners in scoring position and less than two outs, so it makes one wonder whether it’s simply bad luck or bad balls put in play.</p>
<p>Either way, all 17 teams (the 2017 Rays and 2017 Padres appeared on this list) saw their batting average with runners in scoring position rise by an average of .026 points and that translated to an average of just under 85 more runs in the next year.</p>
<p>The team still needs to make some changes and regression alone won&#8217;t fix everything, but if the past is any indication, the Blue Jays are in for some good fortune. Of the 17 teams that hit under .232 with RISP since the 2000 season, 12 improved on their run total by more than 50 the next season. The team still has some work to do, but regression to the mean could definitely factor in to the 2018 club. There’s no promise that the extra runs will make the team contenders, but staying healthy and added depth should ensure that the Blue Jays stay alive until at least the end of August this time around.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement — USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Josh Donaldson: The Next Blue Jays All-Time Great</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/31/14014/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/31/14014/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Oct 2017 11:00:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14014</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What makes an all-time great? Every so often in this city, you see a player come along and dominate, only to move on way too soon. Just last month, we got the honour of sending long time Blue Jay Jose Bautista off into the abyss, or wherever aging sluggers without bat speed go. As send-offs [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What makes an all-time great?</p>
<p>Every so often in this city, you see a player come along and dominate, only to move on way too soon. Just last month, we got the honour of sending long time Blue Jay Jose Bautista off into the abyss, or wherever aging sluggers without bat speed go.</p>
<p>As send-offs go, it was rare to see a Blue Jay get his due at what looks like the end of their career. Usually, due to the state of the team, financial reasons, or a mixture of both, marquee players in Toronto head for greener pastures. Acquiring talent wasn’t the problem – the Robbie Alomars, Carlos Delgados, Roy Halladays, and Jose Bautistas of the franchise didn’t seem that hard to come by for this team – it was keeping it. Fans would watch in dismay as they were forced to cheer for their heroes as they chased greatness (or money) in a new uniform, wondering what could have been.</p>
<p>Now with Bautista gone, the attention turns to Josh Donaldson.</p>
<p>Josh Donaldson is entering his final arbitration year and will head into free agency at the end of the 2018 season, we know that. Tammy Rainey has <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/02/the-blue-jays-need-to-be-careful-when-extending-josh-donaldson/" target="_blank">already talked about the risks</a> and <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/03/why-a-donaldson-deal-may-not-be-as-expensive-as-youd-think/">what a Donaldson deal would look like</a>. For a team that looks like it wants to keep competing, and for a team that made a lot of money the past three seasons, keeping the star third baseman seems like a no brainer.</p>
<p>There’s something special about Josh Donaldson. His first impression went well in Toronto. He and that .297/.371/.568 slash line in 2015 were good enough to make him the second MVP in franchise history after George Bell took it home for the 1987 season. From him telling reporters that he plays in the Get it Done League to the mad dash that eliminated the Rangers in 2016, everything about Josh Donaldson has been synonymous with success.</p>
<p>So, does he qualify as an all-time Blue Jay yet?</p>
<p>It’s easy to tell what the gold standard is for Blue Jays fans when it comes to franchise legends, it’s having your name enshrined on the Level of Excellence. It’s crazy to think that far down the road, but you can argue that in a short amount of time, Donaldson has already made a solid case to be put up there with the rest of the greats.</p>
<p>Donaldson has jam packed iconic moments and elite play in the short time he’s played in the city. In just three years, he’s amassed quite the catalogue of greatest hits, a myriad of plays that have left countless fans stunned. And he’s found different ways to do it. While he may not be a typical five tool player, he’s good enough to use each of his tools to his advantage. Remember when he <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y1iSsL5-3wk" target="_blank">dove into the Tropicana Field crowd</a> to preserve Marco Estrada’s perfect game bid? How about <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oB8lEkQkaSw" target="_blank">lighting up the Twins for three home runs</a> in a game in late August last season? From the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wHkNOeQosO0" target="_blank">walk-off home runs</a> to the <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/donaldsons-tremendous-throw/c-818104183" target="_blank">tough throws</a>, <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LkIt0eZomqw" target="_blank">the sliding stops</a> to the <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NqrOFMb46Vk" target="_blank">slides that win series’</a>, the man can beat you in so many ways.</p>
<p>Donaldson has the ability to make highlight reel plays with his glove, bat, and legs, and no matter where the team is in the standings, or if it’s game 1, 162 or in the postseason, a ticket to watch the Blue Jays is ticket to watch the Josh Donaldson show.</p>
<p>Talking about clubhouse culture and playing the game the right way is usually marred by thinly veiled racist language and criticism of players that have too much fun. You want an example of playing the game the right way? Josh Donaldson’s first three years in Toronto are a blueprint of that.</p>
<p>Want proof?</p>
<p>Of the 13 players that have been worth at least 20 wins above replacement as a Blue Jay, six have done it in under 1000 games. Only one, Josh Donaldson, has done it in under 500. As a matter of fact, Donaldson has played 230 fewer games than the next guy on the list, Devon White, and is only 1.1 wins behind him.</p>
<p>We&#8217;re at the point that he&#8217;s already up there with the rest of the greats, given the personality he has and being an integral part of a Blue Jays team that went to the ALCS in back-to-back years. Barring him asking for too much money, going into a full blown rebuild, or a team like the Cardinals offering the moon, Donaldson should be part of this team going forward.</p>
<p>Toronto should be wary of any deal that exceeds seven years, but jumping the gun and getting their superstar inked should be at the top of their list going into this offseason. Despite an OPS of .944 in 113 games this year, it was seen as a down year for Donaldson, but unlike Jose Bautista, Donaldson is still 31 and will have many productive years ahead of him.</p>
<p>Get it done.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Jose Bautista and the Unpredictability of Baseball</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/12/jose-bautista-and-the-unpredictability-of-baseball/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/12/jose-bautista-and-the-unpredictability-of-baseball/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 12 Sep 2017 10:14:45 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Richard Lee-Sam]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13378</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the past few weeks, there has been spirited debate over who deserves the title of &#8220;The Greatest Blue Jay of All-Time.&#8221; Everybody&#8217;s top five consisted of a mix of players that captivated a country and rose to immortality like Roberto Alomar, Roy Halladay, Dave Stieb, Carlos Delgado, Tony Fernandez, and maybe even George Bell [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><span lang="EN-CA">Over the past few weeks, there has been spirited debate over who deserves the title of &#8220;The Greatest Blue Jay of All-Time.&#8221; Everybody&#8217;s top five consisted of a mix of p</span>layers that captivated a country and rose to immortality like Roberto Alomar, Roy Halladay, Dave Stieb, Carlos Delgado, Tony Fernandez, and maybe even George Bell or Roger Clemens if you argued enough. When you look at the men I listed, you see a bunch of stars. These players all broke into the league at a young age and stuck, establishing themselves as household names in their mid-twenties, most of them right here in Toronto. All of those players worked hard, but they all pretty much became what they were supposed to become.</p>
<p>Who would have thought back in 2008 that a newly acquired 27-year-old journeyman utility player arriving via a waiver-wire trade would also throw his hat into the ring as one of the best ever to suit up for the franchise? After bouncing around from franchise to franchise, Jose Bautista developed a leg kick and became the mashing, bat-flipping, defiant-to-the-traditional-rules saviour that a new wave of baseball fans wanted to see.</p>
<p>We know how the Bautista story goes; he helped plug a few holes in his first season and a half, playing respectable baseball, and then in 2010…bang. A bearded hero and the new face of the franchise was born. Bautista clubbed 54 home runs after combining to hit just 43 in the three seasons prior. Not only that, he did it his way, dripping with confidence after becoming one of the best players in the league. Less than three years after joining his fifth team in five seasons, the former journeyman finally found stability and inked a five-year deal with the Blue Jays.</p>
<p>But this isn’t about Jose Bautista. As the 2017 season – and what looks like Jose’s time in Toronto – winds down in heartbreaking fashion, we’ll begin to look back on the past nine seasons and, over the coming weeks, tributes will begin to pour in. Undoubtedly, everything the player who was once traded straight up for Robinson Diaz has done will be immortalized with his name on the Level of Excellence whenever he decides to call it a career.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista and the rest of the 2017 Toronto Blue Jays are proof that you really can’t predict baseball. And that’s why the sport is so beautiful.</p>
<p>Anything can happen at any given time. Fans spent all winter telling each other that this team could get back to the ALCS for a third straight year if everything just went according to plan. And they were right. The team that the Blue Jays fielded in April certainly wasn&#8217;t supposed to end up in the American League East basement all year.</p>
<p>But if everything went according to plan, the Blue Jays probably don’t go from being 53-51 at the trade deadline to chasing down the Yankees in 2015 to capture their first division title in 22 years. If everything went according to plan, Cole Hamels and Yu Darvish probably don’t drop both Games 1 and 2 of the 2016 ALDS and we’re robbed of getting to see Josh Donaldson’s mad dash to complete the sweep in Game 3.</p>
<p><span lang="EN-CA"> </span>“What if they just stayed healthy?”</p>
<p>“What if they got better luck on balls in play?”</p>
<p><span lang="EN-CA">“What if they didn’t blow so many games in the ninth?”<br />
</span></p>
<p><span lang="EN-CA">We’ve all spent this season watching in agony as the Blue Jays not only stumbled right out of the gate, but constantly came up short over and over again. Frustration turned to anger, which turned to delusion as fans wondered if a team that couldn’t even get back to .500 could will themselves into a playoff race.<br />
</span></p>
<p>But without these trying times, do the highs feel as good? Do we feel the rush in those finally meaningful September games in 2015 where we could literally feel our heart beating in our chest in the late innings and wonder how we’d ever survive the thrill of October baseball?</p>
<p>The unpredictable nature of this game is exhilarating. Ask any Jays fan where they were when they were blindsided with the Josh Donaldson trade news.</p>
<p>The story of the 2017 Blue Jays isn’t just one thing or another. Instead, it was a comedy of errors. As quick as the flame was lit somewhere in the middle of the 2015 season, it went out as this team just forgot how to play baseball. After being just four wins away from the World Series in back-to-back years, the Blue Jays became bad again.</p>
<p>But like our friend Jose Bautista – <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/08/putting-justin-smoak-into-jose-bautistas-context/" target="_blank">and hopefully another late-blooming Jays star in Justin Smoak</a> – taught us, the beauty in this game is when preseason predictions and ideas of what what should happen are thrown out the window and the ones that are overlooked and second guessed triumph. Just when you think you completely understand this game, it hits you like a bat-flipped three-run home run in a winner-take-all elimination game.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kevin Sousa-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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