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	<title>Toronto &#187; Greg Wisniewski</title>
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		<title>TRADE: Blue Jays Deal Steve Pearce for SS Prospect</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/28/trade-blue-jays-deal-steve-pearce-for-ss-prospect/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/06/28/trade-blue-jays-deal-steve-pearce-for-ss-prospect/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jun 2018 03:05:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16186</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Breaking news on the trade front from Shi Davidi: #BlueJays trade Steve Pearce and cash considerations to Boston for minor-league infielder Santiago Espinal, #RedSox announce — Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) June 29, 2018 &#160; Let the sale begin! The Blue Jays have indicated their intention to move their veteran pieces by trading Steve Pearce and cash [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Breaking news on the trade front from Shi Davidi:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> trade Steve Pearce and cash considerations to Boston for minor-league infielder Santiago Espinal, <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/RedSox?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#RedSox</a> announce</p>
<p>— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/1012523479822823424?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>Let the sale begin! The Blue Jays have indicated their intention to move their veteran pieces by trading Steve Pearce and cash for an infielder in &#8220;A&#8221; ball. Slightly more interesting is the fact that the Jays found a trading partner in their own division. Shi Davdi tells us more about the newest Blue Jay:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Santiago Espinal, 23, was a 10th-round pick in 2016. This year, was batting .314 (80-for-255) with 15 doubles, three triples, seven home runs, and 32 RBI in 64 games for High-A Salem</p>
<p>— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/1012524132737560577?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Espinal looks like a potentially interesting player, although not a top prospect. Pearce is effective as a platoon bat, and injury prone, so any return for him was likely to be limited. Here&#8217;s a video of Espinal taking by Adam McInturff. </p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Video of Santiago Espinal, the prospect headed back to Toronto for Steve Pearce. Athletic player who will stick at SS, has tools to hit but approach and swing-path need to get consistent. Interesting prospect, toolsy. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/DirtyWater?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#DirtyWater</a> <a href="https://t.co/LzdyEXR0Fa">pic.twitter.com/LzdyEXR0Fa</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Adam McInturff (@2080adam) <a href="https://twitter.com/2080adam/status/1012721652105400320?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">June 29, 2018</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>In addition, by shedding some of Pearce&#8217;s salary ($1.5M per Ken Rosenthal), the Blue Jays are in a good position to eat money in future deals to increase prospect returns, similar to last year&#8217;s deal to acquire Teoscar Hernández. </p>
<p>This is the first trade between the Blue Jays and Red Sox since 2012, when they sent David Carpenter and their Manager, John Farrell, to Boston, getting Mike Aviles (temporarily) in return.</p>
<p>Credit: Lead Photo © Jake Roth-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Opening Day Thoughts</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/30/opening-day-thoughts/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Mar 2018 13:40:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15582</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Opening day, which seemed uncomfortably far away when the World Series ended in 2017, and then became a beacon of hope as Spring Training unfolded, finally arrived. And it did so with a heavy, wet thud. So, allow me, if you will, some observations. The season began on a poignant and difficult note, with the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Opening day, which seemed uncomfortably far away when the World Series ended in 2017, and then became a beacon of hope as Spring Training unfolded, finally arrived. And it did so with a heavy, wet thud. So, allow me, if you will, some observations.</p>
<ul>
<li>The season began on a poignant and difficult note, with the retirement of the late Roy Halladay&#8217;s number, and the raising of his name onto the Level of Excellence. We all knew that Roy deserved these honours, but our collective imagination might never have pictured them being awarded posthumously. It is difficult to say hello to the Blue Jays and goodbye to a legend in the same breath</li>
<li>With the exception of Troy Tulowitzki, who may or may not exist in our space time continuum anymore, the Jays made it to Opening Day with the team they wanted here in good health. Praise the Baseball Gods for whatever fortune they have bestowed upon us.</li>
<li>The Yankees are, without a doubt, the team to beat in the American League. The task, then is to limit the impact of three of the game&#8217;s best young hitters, packed together in the lineup, and hope your offense scores a few. Judge was two for four with a walk. Stanton was three for five with two home runs. Let me put that another way.</li>
<li>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/xhss9.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15583" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/03/xhss9.jpg" alt="xhss9" width="550" height="395" /></a></p>
</li>
<li>In order for the Jays to follow the blueprint for success this season, the pitching needs to do most of the heavy lifting, getting solid efforts from a deep rotation with five real MLB quality starters in it. J.A. Happ managed to heave 96 pitches in just four and two thirds of an inning. Is that solid enough? No. I don&#8217;t think Mr. Happ would argue the point, either.</li>
<li>The relief corps also needs to be effective when called upon, using it&#8217;s veteran something or other to get out of jams. When fully rested on opening day, every single reliever allowed at least one hit.</li>
<li>On the bright side, the Jays staff only issued two walks all day, so they weren&#8217;t wild.</li>
<li>I did not have Kevin Pillar in the pool for &#8220;First Blue Jay Home Run: 2018&#8243;, so congrats to all who did. I have him for &#8220;Chase a Two Strike Slider for Strike Three&#8221;, so I consider us even.</li>
</ul>
<p>Is every game against the Yankees going to be like this? I highly doubt it. In fact, I doubt that even today&#8217;s game will be the same script. We&#8217;ve seen how it looks when things go how New York planned it out, though. It seems to rely a lot less on luck and a lot more on raw ability than the Jays road map does. Only about 18 more of these to go. Oh, and the same against the Red Sox, too.</p>
<p>Baseball giveth on opening day, but it taketh away, too.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>The Three Biggest Swings of 2017</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/12/the-three-biggest-swings-of-2017/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/12/the-three-biggest-swings-of-2017/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 12 Jan 2018 11:08:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kendrys Morales]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Steve Pearce]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14879</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s cold out where I live, and the large plains of white snow outside my window are about as far away from green infield grass as you can get. I keep opening tabs on my browser with the promise that spring training is only days away. At this point, especially in this glacially slow-moving offseason [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s cold out where I live, and the large plains of white snow outside my window are about as far away from green infield grass as you can get. I keep opening tabs on my browser with the promise that spring training is only days away. At this point, especially in this glacially slow-moving offseason (with apologies to all the Jays Bruce fans out there), many folks are looking forward to try and divine what 2018 might bring. I, for one, agree with Yoda when it comes to trying to predict the next season: “Difficult to see. Always in motion is the future..”</p>
<p>So instead, I choose to look back. Although the 2017 season did not end as planned for our blue birds, there were still some standout moments. The fields were green, the air was warm, and the sun was bright.</p>
<p>Now, although a player&#8217;s ability to be good &#8220;in the clutch&#8221; varies from year to year, there are definitely clutch situations in many games throughout the 162-game schedule, and on any given night, any player can be the one to come through. We have a fairly straightforward way to measure how much of a difference a particular plate appearance had on the outcome of a game. It&#8217;s called <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/library/misc/wpa/" target="_blank">Win Probability Added</a>, or WPA, and if you click the link, it explains what percentage of a team&#8217;s win belongs to a particular player or plate appearance. Let&#8217;s look at the three most dramatic performances in terms of WPA in 2017, arguably the most exciting performances of the year.</p>
<h3>Third place: Kendrys Morales, July 27th &#8211; WPA: .538</h3>
<p>Any WPA over .50 is impressive, since a team begins a game with about a 50 percent chance of winning. You might say, then, that Morales&#8217; contributions alone were enough to win the game. That&#8217;s an oversimplification, though, so let&#8217;s dive in and see what exactly Morales accomplished to move the needle on this 8—4 Jays win. After each play, I will list the WPA changed by the result of each of his plate appearances.</p>
<p>In the bottom of the first, he struck out (-.03 WPA). Then, in the bottom of the fifth, he led off the inning with a first-pitch home run (.13 WPA) that cut Oakland&#8217;s lead to 3-2. In the bottom of the sixth, he grounded out (-0.04 WPA).</p>
<p>Morales returned to the plate in the ninth inning, facing Blake Treinen, the Jays in a 4—3 hole. The at-bat unfolded as follows: Morales swung through a 97-mph sinker, laid off a 98-mph sinker outside, and took a changeup low. Now behind in the count, Treinen thought he had the answer for Kendrys, rearing back for a little extra and delivering a 99-mph sinker to almost the same location as his first pitch.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/morales-july-27.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14880" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/morales-july-27.gif" alt="morales july 27" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>It was, from Treinen&#8217;s perspective, the wrong answer.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/morales-homer-ties-the-game/c-1657047683?tid=69808956" width="500" height="280" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<p>That&#8217;s a game tying home run in the bottom of the ninth, increasing the Jay&#8217;s odds of winning by .43 WPA!</p>
<p>And here&#8217;s why baseball is so much fun: If I asked you about this game you would probably only remember the last play of the game, when Steve Pearce hit a grand slam to seal the 8—4 victory. That play was 34 percent of a win—not quite as large an impact as when Morales kept the game alive one inning earlier.</p>
<h3>Second Place: Kendrys Morales, May 5th &#8211; WPA: .715</h3>
<p>Yes, it&#8217;s Morales doing the heavy lifting once again, this time versus the Rays on the road in Tampa Bay. Here&#8217;s how his game went: a strikeout in the second (-.02 WPA) and a double in the fifth (.06), then a two-run home run (.26) in the seventh, driving in Russell Martin and tying the game 3-3. And in his final plate appearance in the eighth, Morales hit another homer, this time driving in Kevin Pillar as well as Martin. That second home run was worth .42 WPA. He worked hard for this one, hitting it out on the sixth pitch of the at-bat.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/morales-may-5th.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14883" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/morales-may-5th.gif" alt="morales may 5th" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>As an aside, they say you usually only get one good pitch to hit in an plate appearance. Pitch number five there is an 89-mph slider. Nobody throws a belt-high slider middle-in intentionally, so that was mistake number one. Morales fouled it off. Jumbo Diaz is a generous man, it seems, and he got a lot of the plate with the 99-mph fastball that followed. I wonder if Blake Treinen somehow misread the scouting report on Morales, which probably reads &#8220;He doesn&#8217;t care how hard you are throwing the ball.&#8221;</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/morales-go-ahead-three-run-hr/c-1356377783?tid=6479266" width="500" height="280" scrolling="no" ></iframe></p>
<p>This drive turned the game from a 4—4 tie into a 7—4 Blue Jays lead, and Justin Smoak added a solo shot off the next pitcher the Rays brought in, proving that it&#8217;s possible for good things to happen at the Trop. Once in a while, at least.</p>
<h3>First Place: Steve Pearce, July 30th &#8211; WPA: .852</h3>
<p>The WPA list is topped by none other than Steve &#8220;Beers&#8221; Pearce. His performance on July 30th was nothing short of amazing, within the single-game top ten for 2017 across all of baseball.</p>
<p>It started off innocuously enough, with a first inning flyout (-.02 WPA), then a double in the third (.07). This hit was reviewed to see if it was a home run, according to the play log, but the original call stood and the Blue Jays lost the challenge. (Shocking, I know.) He followed with a walk in the sixth (.02 WPA) and a lineout in the eighth (-.01). Had the game ended there, it would have been one of the more pedestrian performances of his career.</p>
<p>By the time the bottom of the ninth rolled around, the Jays were down by six, and Pearce was due up a distant eighth. This is the wonderful thing about WPA—it rewards you most when everything is on the line.</p>
<p>Here is how the bottom of the ninth unfolded. Goins walked. Pillar homered, and by this point, it was already obvious something weird was going on. A Rob Refsnyder double chased Brooks Pounders, and in came Bud Norris; Carrera singled and Martin singled, scoring Refsnyder. Smoak grounded out, then Morales walked to load the bases again. That&#8217;s seven batters and only one out, and the score was now 10-7.</p>
<p>At this point, down three in the bottom of the ninth, the Blue Jays only had a 21 percent chance of winning the game. Time for Steve Pearce to see what he could do.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/pearce-july-30.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14885" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/01/pearce-july-30.gif" alt="pearce july 30" width="600" height="400" /></a></p>
<p>For whatever reason, Norris started the at-bat with two cutters. Neither of these pitches were close enough to the zone to tempt Steve. I assume he wasn&#8217;t trying to get too cute and was just trying to hit the fastball. Norris tops out around 95 mph, and there&#8217;s no reason to expect he won&#8217;t try to use one at some point. A 2-0 count seems like when you&#8217;d really be ready for a fastball, and, sure enough, Norris threw the fastball. The problem with this particular fastball, of course, might have been that it was exactly three feet off the ground, and probably would have traveled over the point of the plate had it been allowed to get that far. Pearce likes meatballs. The ball found the seats instead of the catcher&#8217;s glove.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s a walkoff grand slam! And yes, I already talked about Pearce hitting a walkoff grand slam in the other entry. This isn&#8217;t that one at all, of course. This is three whole days later. I know I&#8217;ve had this conversation on Twitter, and elsewhere, but hitting a walkoff grand slam is pretty much the only thing you imagine when you&#8217;re ten years old and trying to learn how to self-hit. There you are, in the schoolyard, or out in a dusty lot, talking yourself through the situation: bases loaded, bottom of the ninth, down by three. Steve Pearce lived that. At the highest level of competition that his sport has to offer, he delivered on a childhood fantasy. Maybe next time, Mr. Pearce, it will be in the playoffs.</p>
<p>Pearce, HR, (.79).</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://streamable.com/m/1668927183" width="500" height="280" frameborder="0" ></iframe></p>
<p><em> Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>The Baseball Hall of Fame Wants to Have Their Cake and Eat It Too</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/28/the-baseball-hall-of-fame-wants-to-have-their-cake-and-eat-it-too/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 28 Nov 2017 11:58:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14344</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every year after the World Series, there is a certain lull in baseball activity. As the Hot Stove season is still not quite yet ready to boil over with free agent frenzy, attention turns to the Hall of Fame. Situated in Cooperstown, New York the Hall is the final destination of the game&#8217;s greatest contributors. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Every year after the World Series, there is a certain lull in baseball activity. As the Hot Stove season is still not quite yet ready to boil over with free agent frenzy, attention turns to the Hall of Fame. Situated in Cooperstown, New York the Hall is the final destination of the game&#8217;s greatest contributors. Most fans are at least vaguely aware of the election process. The Hall mails out their ballots at this time of year, and asks that they be returned by a specific date near the end of December, in order to announce it&#8217;s selections in the first week of January. This, in turn leads to induction weekend in June.</p>
<p>Cooperstown and it&#8217;s voters have a unique relationship in sport. The ballots are mailed out to members of the Base Ball Writers Association of America, who are not themselves employed by, or in any way compensated by the Hall itself. Those writers must be in good standing with the BBWAA, and have actively covered baseball both for at least 10 years, including sometime in the last ten years. The relationship has been in place for a very long time. The conclusion that one would draw from this farming out of the vote is that the Hall is seeking a knowledgeable, diverse, and unbiased voting body in order to determine who is worthy of enshrinement. Certainly, once the initial qualifications are set out, it is a good way to encourage an impartiality in the voting process.</p>
<p>That appearance is paramount in continuing to bolster the legitimacy of the candidates, and of the Hall of Fame itself. Those who truck on down to a little baseball field in New York state every June and join the very exclusive fraternity with plaques in the hall. There are only 220 players who have ever met the exacting criteria required to get into the Hall. It has come to pass in the last few years, though, that the Hall does not respect the wishes of the BBWAA, the institution that it has, itself, chosen for the honour of selecting candidates.</p>
<p>In 2014 the Hall reduced the number of years of eligibility from 15 to 10 for former players who continued to recieve the 5% minimum vote threshold to stay on the ballot. Then in 2015, the Hall forced the ballot out of the hands of older members of the BBWAA, declaring their formerly lifetime privileges invalid. Writers would now only have 10 years after stepping away from covering the game. Then the sun would set on their ballot casting days. The BBWAA requested an expansion of the vote in 2016 from 10 names to 12, and was denied. The writers  voted and agreed in 2017, (with 90% approval) to have their votes released publicly after the numbers were all in,  and be held accountable for their picks. They were denied by the Hall, who will keep the names to themselves after the votes are tallied.</p>
<p>Finally, and most egregiously, in 2017, just as the voting period began, Joe Morgan (already enshrined in Cooperstown) emailed BBWAA members from a Hall of Fame associated account to explain <a href="https://medium.com/joeblogs/joe-morgans-letter-9e113815983d" target="_blank">how they should vote</a> properly on reported PED using members who were on the ballot. Joe Morgan, a man who <a href="http://www.sportingnews.com/mlb/news/4516808-joe-morgan-pete-rose-hall-of-fame-ballot-reds-peds-arod">has made the case</a> that his teammate Pete Rose, <strong>who is explicitly banned for life from baseball</strong>, should make the Hall, is now the taskmaster to bring the unruly writers in line. I could go into great detail about why that seems like a pile of &#8220;fertilizer&#8221;, but Jeff Passan, (who has one of those Hall ballots), does it very nicely <a href="https://sports.yahoo.com/giving-hall-fame-vote-joe-morgans-letter-144738128.html" target="_blank">for me right here</a>.</p>
<p>The Hall of Fame has a really, really big problem brewing. It isn&#8217;t about the credibility if Cooperstown has plaques with steroid users on it. It&#8217;s about the credibility of a place that claims to want to preserve and celebrate the history of the game. Bud Selig, who presided over the game during the time when MLB acted like it couldn&#8217;t read the labels on the containers in Mark McGwire&#8217;s locker, just coasted into the Hall without so much as a peep from the Board of Directors. Why? Does looking the other way for five or ten years not make the problem worse? With stringent testing, perhaps we don&#8217;t have players who &#8216;never failed a test&#8217; sitting on the doorsteps of the Hall with no evidence to keep them out, only rumors and hearsay.</p>
<p>Ultimately, the problem is this: The Hall can print whichever names it wants to on the ballot every year. Strictly going by the rules, any player with 10 years experience can appear on the ballot. Often there are obvious &#8220;one and done&#8221; players included as a nod to their longevity in the game. Sometimes fans note players who do meet the 10 years service criteria, but have been mysteriously weeded out by the selection committee. Why some are on and some are off is nver explicitly stated. The Hall is not owned by MLB. If they wanted to put Pete Rose on their list, his ban from working for MLB teams would not affect that choice, in fact, they didn&#8217;t even make a rule about banned players until 2 years after Rose&#8217;s lifetime suspension. So we look to this year&#8217;s ballot in one hand, with Sosa and Bonds and Clemens and Manny (suspended twice for steroids!) Ramirez on it. And in the other hand, we have Joe Morgan&#8217;s letter on the equivalent of company letterhead, urging us not to check their names. The writers didn&#8217;t put them there, Joe.</p>
<p>The Hall clearly has a vision of the place it wants to be, but its motto is &#8220;Preserving History, Honoring Excellence, Connecting Generations.&#8221; Curiously, it does not include &#8220;and making sure the uncomfortable bits don&#8217;t make it in through the front door.&#8221; If the Hall wants to control what is and is not remembered about the game, it is welcome to do so. It is not fair to ask the writers to do it for them though and then beg off questions about bias. It&#8217;s hard not to see the whitewashing when they misrepresent what baseball fans really watched in the late 1990&#8217;s and early 2000&#8217;s. If the Hall wants an arm&#8217;s length relationship with what it curates, it needs to stop trying to manipulate those to whom it has delegated the task. Alternately, if it wants to shape the story and intentionally bias the historical record, it needs to cut the BBWAA out of the process and take responsibility for the lack of credibility that will follow.</p>
<p>Which brings us to the really shameful reality of all this manipulative garbage. You are much more likely to have read something about Joe Morgan&#8217;s letter this offseason than you will have about any of the players hoping to be inducted into the Hall this year. Johnny Damon, Andruw Jones, Chipper Jones, Scott Rolen, Johan Santana, Jim Thome and Omar Vizquel are, for the first time in their lives, about to be considered for baseball immortality. Look up their names and take a walk down memory lane, because they were all great players and bring back memories of a game that so many people love. Do it before the powers that be at in Cooperstown change the rules again.</p>
<p>Lead Photo Credit: <em>Gregory J. Fisher</em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>Gift Ngoepe Traded To Blue Jays, Pun Lovers Rejoice</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/20/gift-ngoepe-traded-to-blue-jays-pun-lovers-rejoice/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2017 23:33:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14256</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Only a few short hours (maybe minutes?) after losing Rob Refsnyder to a waiver claim by Cleveland, the Blue Jays added some middle infield depth from The Pittsburgh Pirates via trade. #BlueJays acquire 2B Gift Ngoepe from #Pirates for player to be named or cash. — Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) November 20, 2017 Gift is the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Only a few short hours (maybe minutes?) after losing Rob Refsnyder to a waiver claim by Cleveland, the Blue Jays added some middle infield depth from The Pittsburgh Pirates via trade.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en"><a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#BlueJays</a> acquire 2B Gift Ngoepe from <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/Pirates?src=hash&amp;ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">#Pirates</a> for player to be named or cash.</p>
<p>— Shi Davidi (@ShiDavidi) <a href="https://twitter.com/ShiDavidi/status/932742659705249792?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 20, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p>Gift is the first African born player to don a Jays uniform. The 27 year old (who will be 28 by opening day) hit .222/.323/.296 for the Pirates last year in a limited 63 PA debut. He has had a sub .700 OPS in all of his recent seasons at the AAA level, and the Pirates have had him in their system since 2009 waiting for him to come into his own.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays need to have a glove that is capable at short, second, and third, thanks to the injury-prone starters on the big league club, if only for Buffalo and injury depth. Gift provides that, while only costing cash or a minor leaguer. He can’t really hit at all, so isn’t the ideal candidate for a big league backup role, but he has options remaining and gives the team an alternative to Ryan Goins and Darwin Barney while they attempt to find a better, more permanent solution.</p>
<p>He also provides several unique pun headline possibilities. Surely there is more to come, as the hot stove is lit. Sort of.</p>
<p>Lead Photo Credit: <em>Charles LeClaire</em>-<strong>USA TODAY Sports</strong></p>
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		<title>Roy Halladay is the Greatest Blue Jay of All-Time</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/08/roy-halladay-is-the-greatest-blue-jay-of-all-time/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Nov 2017 16:11:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14124</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is a repost from a series we did back when we were called BlueJays Plus, a Blue Jays focused blog. Each writer picked a player and argued for their case as the Greatest Blue Jay of All-Time (or GBOAT). This was Greg&#8217;s entry. On the day following his tragic death, this is a good [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>This is a repost from a series we did back when we were called BlueJays Plus, a Blue Jays focused blog. Each writer picked a player and argued for their case as the Greatest Blue Jay of All-Time (or GBOAT). This was Greg&#8217;s entry. On the day following his tragic death, this is a good look back at just how much he meant to the Blue Jays and their fans.</em></p>
<p>Harry Leroy Halladay III is the Greatest Blue Jay of All Time. Strap yourself in and we will find out why.</p>
<p>Let us first dispense with the notion that “greatness” can only be found on the pages of Baseball Reference or measured with a spreadsheet downloaded from Brooks Baseball data. Greatness is much more than the measure of a player’s statistics, and though there may have been better moments on the field from others wearing the Blue Jay uniform, no player embodies the highest level of everything that a Blue Jay can be the way <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/h/hallaro01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-www.bluejaysplus.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Roy Halladay</a></strong> does.</p>
<p>We look at many facets of a player, indeed of a person, when deciding if they are worthy of our admiration. We seek humility in our heros, and Roy has that. We teach our children to show drive and discipline for what they love. Roy has that. We want our heroes to have great skill and abilities, and Roy has that. We hope that we can show those around us the sacrifices and the generosity of those we admire. Roy has that. We often evaluate those in sport on their ability to perform at the most critical times. Roy has that ability. After it all ends, though, we want our heroes to be human beings too, and somehow carry their greatness off the playing field. Incredibly Doc Halladay manages to do this too.</p>
<p>The early career of Roy Halladay is often looked at as an incredibly unusual path to stardom. In 1995, he was a first round pick. In 1998, he was a September call-up and on the final day of the season, he was one out away from a no-hitter in only his second career start. And then in 1999 it started coming apart at the seams. It has been talked about many times before, but Roy’s 10.64 ERA was the worst ever for a pitcher with at least 50 innings pitched in a season. So, what is so great about that?</p>
<p>The greatness is born from what happened next. Demoted to Single A, Roy could have chosen to say or do a lot of things to defend himself. The methods that got him drafted, got him to the majors in only three years after being drafted, those would have been tempting to hold on to. He didn’t hang on to any of that, he humbly took advice from <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/player_search.cgi?results=queenme02,queenme01&amp;utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-www.bluejaysplus.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Mel Queen</a></strong> to alter his pitching mechanics. Halladay, a young, first round draft pick, swallowed his pride. He literally trusted someone else to take the only thing that he had ever had success with, and change it to make it better.</p>
<p>There are many, many stories of players demoted to the minor leagues, then to return with something more. Halladay’s rebuilt delivery, his new pitching philosophy, and his incredible results afterwards, are one of the greatest. Without his willingness to accept his faults and begin again, the story would not have continued as it did.</p>
<p>The next part of Halladay’s rise to greatness is the natural result of rebuilding his pitching mechanics and thinking on the mound. By honing his delivery, and focusing his skills he became one of the most feared pitchers in baseball. These years, from 2002-2011, represent the greatness of “Doc” Halladay as he would be dubbed by the legendary Tom Cheek. Roy was not only a workhorse, leading his league in innings pitched four times, but he was efficient beyond belief. He managed the lowest walks per nine innings total in his league three times. He became known for his ability to resolve at-bats in a minimum number of pitches. Over the course of a season, there was nobody you wanted on the mound every fifth day more that Roy Halladay. He worked quickly, efficiently, and with pinpoint control. He always wanted the ball in his hands, and he deserved it.</p>
<p>Later, I will discuss the two greatest games of Halladay’s career, but first, I would direct you to the most Roy Halladay start of all time. In September of 2006, Halladay took the mound in <a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/TOR/TOR200309060.shtml">this game</a>. When it was finished, he had thrown a complete game shutout… in 10 innings. No Tiger baserunners made it to third base, and he did it all in just 99 pitches. His incredible consistency and resiliency, as well as his stoic game face made it seem more like Toronto had put a cyborg on the mound. The Blue Jays have had nothing like it since he left.</p>
<p>That stoicism on the field made it seem as if Halladay might be an angry person, or somehow conceited. Instead, the things he did when he wasn’t pitching always indicated both his tremendous dedication and his kind heart. His commitment to his job was highlighted by tales of him running the stadium stairs as part of his workout regimen, regardless of what ballpark the Jays were at on any given day. His focus was undeniable, <a href="http://www.thestar.com/sports/bluejays/2013/12/10/roy_halladays_ability_to_focus_legendary.html">even borderline crazy</a>. Spring training stories would come out as other players would talk about trying to get to the ballpark earlier than Doc, but being unable to set their clocks for an hour that early. Around the clubhouse, Halladay was all business. His single mindedness on the playing field might make you think he was selfish or greedy, but Doc’s behaviour off the field demonstrated a much more generous side.</p>
<p>Halladay twice signed contract extensions with the Blue Jays, and did so for well under his market value. There were much more than dollar signs on his mind when he thought about where he wanted to play. Those contracts also included a $100,000 donation to the Jays Care Charity every year on his behalf, again speaking to something more significant than baseball games on Roy’s agenda. The personal side of Halladay was rarely on display, but every year, Doc and his wife Brandi arranged for a luxury suite at the Rogers Centre to be “Doc’s Box” and <a href="http://www.thestar.com/news/2008/06/14/halladays_step_up_to_the_plate_to_help_others.html">help sick children</a> experience a day at the ballpark. Being both a focused competitor and a generous human being off the field is an undeniable sign of greatness.</p>
<p>When it comes down to measuring athletes against one another, the reputation away from the team is like icing on the cake. In the overall discussion, however, a generous and selfless player without great accomplishments on the field is like having no cake at all. The players who survive a long time in the game all have their opportunities to shine. Every player will find himself in the spotlight once in a while, so when measuring them against one another, we often come down to how they performed “when it mattered”. For all the regular, quality work he gave the fans in Toronto, we never got to see Halladay in blue and white during the month of October. In fact, he hardly ever needed to feel any additional pressure in September. And those lacklustre teams were not his fault.</p>
<p>To find out whether Halladay had ‘it’ under pressure, we have to move to his time with the Philadelphia Philles. This is when the playoffs finally came calling in 2010. Let me, as an aside, mention that Roy had already turned heads in 2010 by throwing the 20th perfect game in MLB history, a 1-0 victory over the Florida Marlins. When asked to give his best for game one of the NLDS, Roy Halladay answered with indisputably one of the greatest performances in playoff history. Clutch? How about only the second no-hitter thrown in the postseason. Ever. Halladay was one walk away from a perfect game. The walk came on a 3-2 pitch. Roy Halladay came within one pitch of throwing two perfect games in the same calendar year. How great is that? It’s all time great. There’s no denying that.</p>
<p>Eventually, as with all athletes, the physical greatness fades. As it does in the late stage of Roy Halladay’s career. He finished with 203 wins, only 105 losses. 67 complete games, 20 shutouts. Eight All-Star games. Two no-hitters, including one perfect game. Two <strong><a href="http://www.baseball-reference.com/players/y/youngcy01.shtml?utm_campaign=Linker&amp;utm_source=direct&amp;utm_medium=linker-www.bluejaysplus.com" target="_blank" rel="nofollow">Cy Young</a></strong> awards. In a Blue Jay uniform he was second all time in wins, strikeouts and shutouts, and third in innings, ERA and starts. He was fantastic, and he kept it up until his body gave out. And that might be the end. That might be enough to put him up on the pedestal of Greatest of All Time. Only it with Doc, it isn’t the end.</p>
<p>We can keep building his case because Roy Halladay signed one more contract at the end of his career, for one day only. And when he signed that one day contract, he put on a Blue Jays jersey, so that he could retire with the team that drafted him. That means that in his retirement, all of the wonderful things we’ve learned about Roy are things he’s done as a Blue Jay. And to learn about all these things, we only have to drop by Roy’s constantly smiling face on his<a href="https://twitter.com/RoyHalladay" target="_blank"> twitter account.</a></p>
<p>He began by clearly having no idea how to use twitter,<a href="https://twitter.com/RoyHalladay/status/477819207212883968" target="_blank"> joked about his ineptness</a>, and now shares all kinds of wonderful moments. He flies planes, rides unicycles, rescues puppies, cheers on the Jays with his 15-year-old son, takes selfies when he gets traffic tickets, and, once in a while, pulls off an epic troll job.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Oopps you missed me! Walked right by me! Hope he gets to see his pic with me on Twitter, he doesn&#39;t know we took this <a href="http://t.co/1GuOTpcdi8">pic.twitter.com/1GuOTpcdi8</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Roy Halladay (@RoyHalladay) <a href="https://twitter.com/RoyHalladay/status/616243146016559104?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">July 1, 2015</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Seriously great. And the topper on the post-baseball greatness that is Roy Halladay comes from a strange little blog called Zoo With Roy. When he first arrived in Philadelphia in 2010, a Philles fan started a blog, setting a <a href="http://www.zoowithroy.com/2010/01/mission-statement.html" target="_blank">goal of going to the zoo</a> with Roy Halladay. Because wouldn’t we all like to spend a day at the zoo with Doc? After retiring in 2014, Harry Leroy Halladay III actually sought out the blogger, and<a href="http://www.zoowithroy.com/2014/08/i-went-to-zoo-with-roy-halladay.html" target="_blank"> took a trip to the zoo with him</a>. Yes, Roy Halladay, the man, might just be more fun than Roy Halladay, the Blue Jay.</p>
<p>When talking about the Greatest Blue Jay of All Time, that’s a lot to consider. There can be but a single GBOAT. Halladay in his time had the humility to rebuild himself after reaching the Show and falling on his face. He demonstrated focus and drive and a commitment to excellence. He has shown us great skill and ability on the baseball field. We have learned about his generosity, selflessness, and caring nature. We have seen him come up big in the clutch. And even now, as we learn more about him in his life after baseball, there is a positivity and humour to him that only increases our admiration for him.</p>
<p>If the World Series were on the line, and I could grab any player from any Blue Jay team and drop them on to the roster, I would snatch 2003 Roy Halladay from the club house, and give him the ball to start the most important game in franchise history. No doubt or hesitation in my mind.</p>
<p>Greatest Blue Jay of All Time.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How Real Life Baseball Started to Resemble a Video Game</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/02/how-real-life-baseball-started-to-resemble-a-video-game/</link>
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		<pubDate>Thu, 02 Nov 2017 11:15:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14053</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I want to begin by stating that, first and foremost, I don&#8217;t believe baseball has a problem. Baseball has, instead, a developing situation. Although the Postseason was filled with a billion home runs, and that&#8217;s definitely unusual, it&#8217;s not just homers that make up the new state of the game. Baseball feels &#8216;odd&#8217; right now. And [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I want to begin by stating that, first and foremost, I don&#8217;t believe baseball has a problem. Baseball has, instead, a developing situation.</p>
<p>Although the Postseason was filled with a billion home runs, and that&#8217;s definitely unusual, it&#8217;s not just homers that make up the new state of the game. Baseball feels &#8216;odd&#8217; right now. And although that strange vibe might be under the microscope in the playoffs, it certainly didn&#8217;t start there. Let&#8217;s look at some things that we see more and some things we see less. Then maybe we can figure out why these changes have affected the feel of a ballgame, while not really making it any less &#8216;fun&#8217;.</p>
<p>The first thing anybody talks about is the spike in Home Runs. It&#8217;s tough not to talk about. So let&#8217;s make a chart and talk about it.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/hr.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14054" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/hr.png" alt="hr" width="605" height="364" /></a></p>
<p>GM Chrysler! What is that line doing at the end there? That&#8217;s every season home run total, right from the post-strike season, right through the heart of the Steroid Era. Nothing compares to the rise from 2015-2017 at all. And when the writers ask about that, they get one of these from the league.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/nothing-to-see-here-gif-4.gif"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14055" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/nothing-to-see-here-gif-4.gif" alt="nothing-to-see-here-gif-4" width="300" height="171" /></a></p>
<p>Okay, sure, I&#8217;ll move along, but only because I have other charts.</p>
<p>Specifically, we have league strikeout rate &#8211; with a different trend, but also one that fundamentally affects the way the game is played.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/k-per.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14056" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/k-per.png" alt="k per" width="605" height="364" /></a></p>
<p>So, it&#8217;s not the fireworks of the previous chart. The league strikeout rate hit 17.5 percent, back in 2008, which was an all-time high. And then it hit a new all-time high in 2009. And then it hit a high again. And again. And again, and again, and again. Then it held steady. Then it set a new record again, and again. If this had happened to the home run rate, it&#8217;s possible the ball would be two ounces lighter and have a thick nougat center by now, just to rein in the madness. But the league&#8217;s answer to the seemingly unstoppable creep of strikeouts has been to&#8230;talk to the umpires about maybe calling the zone better. Or maybe changing the zone. But nothing extreme. Nothing that would, say, result in an additional five percent of the plate appearances ending with a batter turning 180 degrees and strolling back to the dugout. If that happened it would be madness. Well, except for when it already did happen over the last 8 years.</p>
<p>So, about the umpires calling the zone better. Did they do that?</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/bb-per.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14057" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/bb-per.png" alt="bb per" width="602" height="365" /></a></p>
<p>Weird, maybe they are calling more balls. At least since 2014. Seems like it&#8217;s counter-intuitive, but that jump in home run rate coincides with a trend reversal in the walk rate. Shouldn&#8217;t guys selling out for power also have less patience? What about the lowly single? Surely the great advances in defense over the last few years&#8230;the almost constant shifting&#8230;surely they have killed the single.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/1b.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14059" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/10/1b.png" alt="1b" width="685" height="365" /></a></p>
<p>All those singles, dead. Did anyone think of their families? Okay, so, ultimately, I could do this with double and triples and hit by pitch and so on, but I will try and keep my observation a little more focused. We have seen defenses deployed in order to limit the number of singles, but have seen the number of doubles increase slightly over the same period of time. In fact, when you look at BABIP, which is a measure of how many balls in play are turned into outs, you get the most remarkable graph of all.</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/babip1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14065" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/babip1.png" alt="babip" width="604" height="365" /></a></p>
<p>This looks like a very large swing, until you look at the scale on the side. The lowest value is .293, the highest is .301. In the last 25 years, with everything else that&#8217;s changed in the game the following remains true: if you put the ball in fair territory every plate appearance, it would be a hit just slightly less than 30 percent of the time.  That seven point swing in BABIP occured over the same span where actual batting averages had a 20 point swing. Yes, you can play your defenders wherever you like, but the hits will still be out there.</p>
<p>What does it all add up to, then? More home runs, walks and strikeouts with fewer singles has resulted in a net <em>increase</em> in runs. From 19,761 in 2014 (was that The Year of the Pitcher?) up to 22,582 in 2017. That increase, though, has been a result of <em>fewer</em> <em>overall balls in play</em>. Here&#8217;s why I think that makes a fundamental difference to the feel of the game.</p>
<p>Baseball, for the committed fan, is about tension, probability and uncertainty. A runner on second base with nobody out means the pitcher is <em>probably </em>in trouble, but he might get out of it. Each subsequent pitch is very tense. A hard line drive three feet over the pitcher&#8217;s head is <em>probably</em> a base hit, but the shortstop might be running to cover second and close enough to snag it. A runner trying to stretch a double into RF into a triple is gambling against the skills of as many as three of the fielders, as well as his own legs. Really, as soon as the ball leaves the pitcher&#8217;s hand, nobody in the ballpark knows for sure what&#8217;s going to happen in the next four or five seconds, and it&#8217;s gripping.</p>
<p>There isn&#8217;t really an analog to these things in soccer, basketball or hockey, because even as the offense and defense put pressure on one another, there isn&#8217;t time to discuss the free flowing nature of the action. There is also a different kind of emphasis because the offensive team has direct control of the ball (or puck) and they are making decisions about what to do with it. In these other sports, we can talk about whether a player made a fundamentally good decision and draw a line to whether that led to a great result. In baseball, there is a gulf between a good decision and a good result, an equation with randomness built in, that hitters and pitchers have been trying solve for over 100 years.</p>
<p>Home runs, strikeouts and walks are some of the least randomized results in baseball. Something about seeing so many of the Three True Outcomes reminds me of this:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/hqdefault.jpg"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14061" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/hqdefault.jpg" alt="hqdefault" width="480" height="360" /></a></p>
<p>Yes, I know, I&#8217;m old. Is this better?</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/rbi-j-rice.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-14062" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/11/rbi-j-rice.png" alt="rbi-j-rice" width="640" height="360" /></a></p>
<p>What do old computer baseball games have to do with real baseball in 2017? They lacked variety. If your timing is correct, and you move the little stick and buttons consistently, you can virtually guarantee certain outcomes. I could bunt with the first two players in Hardball and end up with runners on first and second with nobody out almost 80% of the time. I&#8217;m sure you had friends who could &#8216;always&#8217; strike out the computer with a secret (or not so secret) combination of pitch types and locations. Home runs tended to go to only a few different sections of the bleachers and nothing ever hit the foul poles or had the manager run out to argue fair or foul. If a ball was hit down the line, you could tell by the arc whether or not the third baseman was going to make that catch without even waiting a fraction of a second. These games had, by technological necessity, a very limited number of possible results. Real baseball is supposed to be a game of infinite possibilities. Take away the fences and the playing field could literally go on forever. Only that&#8217;s not the direction we seem to be going.</p>
<p>Don&#8217;t think that this is a complaint. It isn&#8217;t. This is just an observation about how the game is changing. It is always changing. It changed when they allowed pitchers to throw overhand, when they livened up the ball, when they expanded the leagues, and when everybody looked the other way on steroid use. Each of those changes was notable, and will always be considered important in the context of the history of the game. What&#8217;s happening during this new era (The Statcast Era? The Juiced Ball Era?) is that some old adages are dying. The reasoning seems to be that there is one optimal way to do everything. That sounds kind of obvious, but it isn&#8217;t how baseball has operated up until very recently.</p>
<p>It used to be that some hitters were told to pound the ball into the ground and outrun it, some were told to try and slap the ball the other way, and even others were told to pull it to generate power in the air. Nobody does those first two things anymore. Those ideas have faded because it turns out if you do the third thing &#8211; and you are only mediocre at it &#8211; you can still have enough success that your overall results will probably be better than those first two strategies. It used to be that certain pitchers were told to emphasize control and try to induce weak contact by pitching to specific locations, while others were forgiven a certain lack of control if they could throw the ball harder and rack up lots of strikeouts. Now most hurlers are trained to throw as hard as they possibly can. As it turns out, even the best hitters have trouble with baseballs thrown at 98 mph, because the human brain and body have a physical limit as to how fast and accurately they can react.</p>
<p>And the result is the trends we see over the last three or four years. Whether or not there is less excitement in the game is entirely up for debate. There certainly seems to be less variety, though. Baseball as a game with more certainty, less of the unknown quantity. Now that feels odd.</p>
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		<title>He May Lay Down his Crown, but Bautista Will Always be King</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/25/jose-bautista-king-last-game-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/25/jose-bautista-king-last-game-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 25 Sep 2017 11:27:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13551</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Wherever there was a hello, surely, in time there has to be a goodbye. The greeting, the initial unfamiliar acknowledgement of a beginning is something clean. At one moment, you were unaware of the existence of someone at all. Then, suddenly, they have a name and a face and presence. Some people, some relationships are [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Wherever there was a hello, surely, in time there has to be a goodbye. The greeting, the initial unfamiliar acknowledgement of a beginning is something clean. At one moment, you were unaware of the existence of someone at all. Then, suddenly, they have a name and a face and presence. Some people, some relationships are fleeting, momentary. The “hello” is hardly done passing one’s lips, and then they are gone. Other times though, when that awareness spreads, when time and circumstance cement a relationship as real and significant and meaningful, people do not simply ‘leave’. For those names and faces that appear in our lives year after year make us feel joy and pain, cause us to think about them even when they are not around. It is never just ‘goodbye’. It is long and blurry and messy and complicated.</p>
<p>There was a day in my life, my full grown adult life, that I did not know his name. And then I did.</p>
<p>Jose Bautista.</p>
<p>It seemed simple. He could play third base. The Pittsburgh Pirates had no need of his services anymore. The Blue Jays did. He was a new face on a team desperately in need of new faces. He was clean shaven and ready to play. He wasn’t as good as Andy LaRoche.</p>
<p>It could have stayed simple. The name Jose Bautista could be on the same level of interest as Brad Wilkerson or Kevin Mench or David Delucci. It could have been a passing association, a name on the roster map and then a wave and a tip of the cap.</p>
<p>As you well know, it did not end so quickly and cleanly. With Jose Bautista, it became the affair that every Blue Jays fan would be involved in. Jose became something that nobody expected: one of the game’s most elite hitters. In a moment of great self awareness, Bautista decided that doing things the way he had always done them wasn’t going to cut it anymore. Between Dwayne Murphy, Cito Gaston, Vernon Wells, and (most critically) himself, Bautista was convinced he could try something crazy at the game’s most elite level. He was already failing to live up to his potential, so it could only get better, right?</p>
<p>In September of 2009 Jose Bautista started his leg kick so early and got his foot down so soon in the pitcher’s delivery that he felt silly. And he started to hit the ball out of the ballpark. He was finally ready on time. Blue Jays fans were ready for him to be born.</p>
<p>Suddenly, there was a giant among us, a hitter who would be King. His plate appearances were must-see TV. He hit bombs with alarming regularity. He won player of the month awards. Far away, in the Great White North, he garnered All-Star votes. Like, all the All-Star votes. Jose Bautista was a phenomenon.</p>
<p>We began to see a man who was confident in his abilities. Many would call him cocky. On August 23rd, 2010, Jose hit a homer off of rookie Ivan Nova. In his next at-bat, Nova threw wild and inside, making Bautista bail out of the box and lose his footing. Bautista came up with ‘the stare’. This is the first time that I had seen that expression on Jose’s face, but I would come to know it very well. As Bautista eyes locked on Nova, it looked like laser beams were about to shoot out and cut the pitcher down. Bautista would fly out then, but got his revenge against the Yankees later that night, breaking the tie and winning the game with a homer off of David Robertson. Jose Bautista didn’t just want to beat you, he knew he would. All he asked for was the opportunity.</p>
<p>We, Blue Jays fans, were thrust into the tornado of a record breaking season from a player who was anything but meek or mild. It wasn’t very Canadian, you know, but wow, did it get results.</p>
<p>Jose just seemed to make games come alive. For his 50th home run, he would do just that. Not only would he homer off of Felix Hernandez, the AL strikeout and ERA leader and eventual Cy Young Award, but it would prove to be the only run in a 1-0 Jays victory. Joey Bats was unstoppable.</p>
<p>He would also develop a reputation for freaking out at umpires when they blew strike calls &#8211; and his 100 or more walks that year made it seem like he might have a legitimate gripe. His attitude came through with reporters, too. &#8220;Sometimes I have trouble more than other players dealing with my production being affected by somebody else&#8217;s mediocrity,” he was quoted as saying. This was more fuel for both his fans and his critics. Could Jose Bautista be for real?</p>
<p>In 2011 he proved that he was. Somehow, after a breakout season in which he hit 54 home runs, he got better. His average and OBP jumped and he led the league in home runs again, with 43. He was, frankly, amazing. His arm was still a cannon in right field, too, making up for his limited range in the outfield. Jose Bautista could carry himself like the King of Toronto because he was the King of Toronto.</p>
<p>You couldn’t have a conversation about the Blue Jays without talking about Joey Bats. Some would adore him, some would respect him, some would appreciate him. Others would complain about him, be irritated by him, and question him. Certainly the Jays couldn’t do without him.</p>
<p>Of course, after all the personal goals are met, a player tends to start making louder noises about wanting to make the playoffs. After a season in 2012 in which injuries limited him to 92 games, we were happy to have Jose back on the field for a lineup and rotation invigorated by a blockbuster trade. As history teaches us, the arrival of Reyes, Johnson, Buehrle, Dickey, and Bonifacio would do nothing to improve a team’s playoff aspirations. Jose’s injuries that year were hardly the make-or-break moment in the season, though they did cast a shadow over his image as a healthy and reliable player. His OPS was sliding too, from ‘elite’ level to ‘pretty good’. Some fans and talk radio personalities began to beat the ‘trade Bautista’ drum again, as they would every time things took a turn south in Blue Jays Nation.</p>
<p>By this point, Jose was a fixture in Toronto. And as he climbed Blue Jays career leaderboards in home runs, RBI and walks, it became clear that we had a franchise player on our hands. He was never going to change into the cliché spouting ‘good kid,’ thankful for every opportunity given to him by the good Lord above. He would not invoke days of stickball in the dirty streets of a Caribbean Island (his parents were middle class and got him into a good school). Instead he would be what a lot of fans and media can’t handle. Articulate, intelligent, and an independent thinker. He was also interested in his own well being, aware of the bigger picture of the teams’ success and its place in Canada’s sports consciousness. Frankly, he was someone who you couldn’t push around.</p>
<p>This led to one of the greatest Twitter exchanges of all time when writer Steve Simmons decided to bash Jose for using a PR person to run his account. It was an account that followed an amazingly large number of people, into the hundreds of thousands. His attempt to de-legitimize Jose’s involvement in his own twitter account went like this.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">.<a href="https://twitter.com/simmonssteve">@simmonssteve</a> who are you and why are you talking to me?</p>
<p>&mdash; Jose Bautista (@JoeyBats19) <a href="https://twitter.com/JoeyBats19/status/517179902215585792">October 1, 2014</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Lesson learned: Thou shalt not mess around with Joey Bats. He’s always watching.</p>
<p>Now we get to 2015. At this point, I feel like I should stop, write a complete thesis on 2015, and come back. In the context of the franchise, 2015 was the Year They Got Their Mojo Back. In a stunning twist, they didn’t even look like they would get it back until the first few days of August. This piece isn’t about the team in 2015 though, it’s about Jose Bautista. Healthy and deadly for all of 2015, he formed one third of a trio (with Donaldson and Encarnacion) that dropped bombs on American League pitching for six months straight. Jose hit 40 home runs at the side of his MVP teammate, but if you’re reading this, you know that none of those 40 home runs are what a Jays fan pictures when you say “Bautista in 2015”.</p>
<p>The only home run that comes to mind in 2015 is one off of Sam Dyson in the 7th inning of Game 5 of the ALDS. A game &#8211; no, a single inning &#8211; that also could have a series of essays devoted to it. And there, at the pivotal moment, was Jose, flipping his bat like a knight in shining armour would have tossed his lance at the end of a tournament. The bat is forever frozen in time, still rising, after Jose watched the baseball land in the left field seats and launched that piece of lumber into the air. That one image, that frozen moment, wiped away 22 years of wondering what it might be like for the Blue Jays to matter again. His face was calm and stoic, a moment of perfect serenity, in a building literally shaking from the pent up emotions he just unleashed.</p>
<p>That moment will live forever, right alongside Roberto Alomar reaching skyward after Eckersley gave him one he could handle. Right beside Joe Carter springing around the bases like a kid with a brand new rocket powered pogo stick. Players often attain immortality in sport by being in the right place at the right time and doing exactly the right thing. The home run was only half of it. Without the bat flip it is a moment that’s great, but not quite epic. The bat flip was like the signature in the corner of a Renoir; if it isn’t there, anyone could have done it.</p>
<p>Lost in the long shadow of the game five bat flip is the fact that 2015 was the year that Bautista did everything he could to drag his team into the World Series. Facing elimination in ALCS Game 6, Bautista homered in the 4th off of Yordano Ventura, then again in the 8th off of Ryan Madson. And except for the fan grabbing at a ‘home run’ in that grey area between the top of the wall and the front row of seats in Knsas City, Jose may have brought the team into the 9th inning in a tie game all by himself. And where did his 2015 end? Standing on deck, helpless as Josh Donaldson grounded out.</p>
<p>By the time 2016 rolled around, you would have thought that his place in Blue Jays history was assured and that it would be a drive to the World Series unhampered by distractions and gossip. Instead, early in the spring the spectre of Jose’s free agency demands (reported at more than five years and around 30 million in AAV) lurked around every interview with him. Some around the fair city of Toronto wanted to see ‘greedy Bautista’ left to wade out into the seas of free agency on his own. Bautista, for his part, felt he had given the team more than what they had paid for over the last six years (he was never paid as much as the best hitters in the game, even when he was one) and wanted to finally be rewarded for what he was really worth.</p>
<p>Again, Jose spoke his mind, was eloquent, and pulled no punches. He was reminding his detractors about all the reasons they didn’t like who he was, but also finding that they had to acknowledge what great things he had done for the franchise. The Blue Jays, however, didn’t see the point of paying for a player through five or six years of decline; just as Jose wasn’t giving a ‘hometown discount,’ they were not going to give him a ‘family premium’ salary. And it looked like the great stalemate would only result in an awkward goodbye after another deep run into playoff baseball.</p>
<p>That would have been sad, but also kind of poetic; like some rogue member of the Magnificent Seven, riding off on his own to try and save another town before he reached the end of the line. Somehow, though, much like the rest of his career, something unexpected came where there seemed to be no hope at all.</p>
<p>Jose had looked over his options and was returning to Toronto. The Franchise would return on a ‘three year’ deal. Of course, the structure of the three years was such that it was nearly impossible for both the team and the player to see the option in year two as a good deal at the same time. Effectively, it was a one year contract with a ‘we do love you though’ clause. So it would be, at the very least, a year to make another run at the playoffs in comfortable surroundings.</p>
<p>And then none of that happened. The team stumbled out of the gate and fell below .500, never even for a single day being able to call itself a ‘winning team’. Bautista himself stumbled through April at .179/.309/.244. He stayed healthy the whole season though, making his clear struggles at the plate all the more depressing. He passed the single season batter strikeout record (goodbye Messrs. K. Johnson and J. Canseco) and stood to have the lowest batting average of any qualified Blue Jays hitter ever.</p>
<p>It is anything but poetic. It is, however, very much like Jose himself: Unanticipated and undeniably interesting. He came out of nowhere, forced us to watch, glued our eyes to his every move, and made us believers. He was never a poet. He was a King.</p>
<p>In a few days he will lay down his crown, but Toronto will still be his kingdom. Whether you were a loyal subject or rebellious detractor, you had to look up. Sometimes to the man, often to the player, but always, always, to the bat.</p>
<p>Goodbye Jose, even though there will always be a part of you here, waiting at home plate for a hard one middle-in.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>How to Build a Blue Jays Line Up John Gibbons Style</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/23/how-to-build-a-blue-jays-line-up-john-gibbons-style/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/23/how-to-build-a-blue-jays-line-up-john-gibbons-style/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 23 Aug 2017 11:39:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[John Gibbons]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13081</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Sunday afternoon in Wrigley field, the Blue Jays fielded a rather unorthodox lineup. Much was made of the words written down on the card at game time, but I&#8217;d like to take one step back in time. Surely John Gibbons didn&#8217;t just pick the names out of the hat, there must have been some [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On Sunday afternoon in Wrigley field, the Blue Jays fielded a rather unorthodox lineup. Much was made of the words written down on the card at game time, but I&#8217;d like to take one step back in time. Surely John Gibbons didn&#8217;t just pick the names out of the hat, there must have been some method to the madness. Let&#8217;s imagine ourselves as a fly on the wall Sunday morning in Chicago&#8230;</p>
<p>John Gibbons: DeMarlo, you got a pen?</p>
<p>DeMarlo Hale: Sure, boss.</p>
<p>JG: And you got one of the lineup cards they gave us Friday?</p>
<p>DH: I got one of them too.</p>
<p>JG: &#8217;bout that time again.</p>
<p>DH: Yes, &#8217;bout that time.</p>
<p>JG: Look, let&#8217;s just get dis done. And don&#8217;t give me one of those looks.</p>
<p>DH: What looks?</p>
<p>JG: Those looks like you thought I din&#8217;t think it all the way through. It&#8217;s a log-i-cal thing.</p>
<p>DH: I&#8217;m not sure I know what you&#8217;re saying.</p>
<p>JG: If we do it log-i-cally, eight hitters for eight slots, &#8216;course pitcher bats last in the NL, it will flow logically. Look. Just lookit&#8230; let&#8217;s just get this done.</p>
<p>DH: Okay.</p>
<p>JG: Alright. Hendricks is a righty. So Carerra leads off. He&#8217;s fast, been hitting well all year.</p>
<p>DH: Good.</p>
<p>JG: Martin&#8217;s still hurt. Gotta use Josh in the two slot. Hasn&#8217;t had a hit this weekend, but he&#8217;s due.</p>
<p>DH: Sure.</p>
<p>JG: Smoaky looks good still, put him third. Jose bats fourth.</p>
<p>DH: Fourth?</p>
<p>JG: Do you want to tell him he&#8217;s batting lower than that? Because I&#8217;ll tell you what, if we move his name any lower, I&#8217;m gonna make you tell him it was your idea&#8230; Besides, who else is going in there?</p>
<p>DH: Don&#8217;t get mad at me. We aren&#8217;t even in the bottom third of the lineup yet.</p>
<p>JG: Montero is gonna bat 5th, because he&#8217;s gonna hit a home run against his old team today. That&#8217;s how that goes, right?</p>
<p>DH: Ha, sure it does.</p>
<p>JG: Okay, so Pillar is in center. And I&#8217;ve got Goins at second. Good kid. Like that kid. Lots of big moments for him this season.</p>
<p>DH: That&#8217;s seven. Who bats in front of the pitcher?</p>
<p>JG: Well, Aoki can work the count. Maybe run a little bit if the pitcher bunts him over. Good range out there in left.</p>
<p>DH: Uh, about that.</p>
<p>JG: About what?</p>
<p>DH: There&#8217;s two guys in left field, Zeke and Nori.</p>
<p>JG: Aw, s_t! Don&#8217;t look at me with that face.</p>
<p>DH: I&#8217;ve only got the one face, John.</p>
<p>JG: I told you&#8230; lookit. I got this. I can&#8217;t ask Marco to go out there and not give him some bats, score some runs. We already lost the g&#8212;amn DH! I got this!</p>
<p>DH: All I&#8217;m saying is the outfield is pretty crowded.</p>
<p>JG: Jose can play third. Heck we had Martin out there, nobody died. It can&#8217;t be any worse than that.</p>
<p>DH: Okay, now it&#8217;s crowded in a different place entirely.</p>
<p>JG: Stop it! JD is still going to play third. He&#8217;s just gonna play it thirty, forty feet to the left of where he&#8217;s used to.</p>
<p>DH: Don&#8217;t you think Goins at short and Josh at&#8211;</p>
<p>JG: &#8211;Josh has never started a game at second base! Are you nuts?</p>
<p>DH: But he&#8217;s never started a game at sho&#8211;</p>
<p>JG: Stop saying things or I&#8217;ll send you out there to show him the card and make you tell &#8216;em it was your idea.</p>
<p>DH: &#8230;.</p>
<p>JG: Exactly. Hey, one your way out, could you put a couple cans in the fridge for me in case I get myself thrown out early today? Don&#8217;t look at me with that face! And stop shakin&#8217; your head! Logic took us right through the whole thing Demarlo, it&#8217;s like math, you can&#8217;t fight it!</p>
<p>And that&#8217;s how you get <a href="https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/CHN/CHN201708190.shtml" target="_blank">this lineup</a>:</p>
<p>1. Ezequiel Carrera &#8211; RF<br />
2. Josh Donaldson &#8211; SS<br />
3. Justin Smoak &#8211; 1B<br />
4. Jose Bautista &#8211; 3B<br />
5. Miguel Montero &#8211; C<br />
6. Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF<br />
7. Ryan Goins &#8211; 2B<br />
8. Nori Aoki &#8211; LF<br />
9. Marco Estrada &#8211; P</p>
<p>Lead Photo:<em> Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Add Depth in Trade for RHP Tom Koehler</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/19/news-jays-send-gutierrez-away-say-hello-to-tom-koehler/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/19/news-jays-send-gutierrez-away-say-hello-to-tom-koehler/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 20 Aug 2017 01:14:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Greg Wisniewski]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Miami Marlins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[minor league]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Osman Guiterrez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Tom Koehler]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[trade]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13032</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays have made a trade in the August window. &#160; Blue Jays acquire RHP Tom Koehler from Miami in exchange for minor league RHP Osman Gutierrez. https://t.co/MmeKMQGAS6 — Blue Jays PR (@BlueJaysPR) August 19, 2017 &#160; Toronto receives 31 year old Tom Koehler (RHP) from the Marlins in exchange for 22 year old [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays have made a trade in the August window.</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet">
<p dir="ltr" lang="en">Blue Jays acquire RHP Tom Koehler from Miami in exchange for minor league RHP Osman Gutierrez. <a href="https://t.co/MmeKMQGAS6">https://t.co/MmeKMQGAS6</a></p>
<p>— Blue Jays PR (@BlueJaysPR) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJaysPR/status/899052120019783682">August 19, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
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<p>Toronto receives 31 year old Tom Koehler (RHP) from the Marlins in exchange for 22 year old RHP Osman Gutierrez. Gutierrez was struggling in low A, with a 7.85 ERA in 78.0 innings as a starter. He throws quite hard (95-97), but seems to be a long way from ever being in consideration for a big league roster. He didn&#8217;t crack the mlb.com midseason prospect ranking update for the club. The Blue Jays will also receive cash considerations from Miami, as Koehler is in the midst of a season which is paying him $5.5M in his second tour through arbitration.</p>
<p>The Jays get Koehler, who has pitched exclusively as a starter in both AAA and the majors for the Marlins this year. In parts of six MLB seasons, Koehler has developed a bit of a walk problem, his BB/9 climbing from 9% in 2013 up to 11.2% this year, while his K% has hung around 17-19%. Just to put the icing on the cake, he&#8217;s also suffered through a career high 2.43 HR/9 in 2017, which is more than double what he&#8217;s ever experienced before. His changeup has been a particular problem, as hitters have slugged a whopping .941 on the pitch. We can&#8217;t all be happy about the juiced ball now, can we?</p>
<p>Koehler<em> has</em> pitched very well since going back to the minors briefly, tossing 41 2/3 innings of 2.16 ERA ball with a whopping 60 strikeouts, but his home run problems haven&#8217;t completed disappeared (he has given up six for a HR/9 of 1.3, which is still above average).</p>
<p>The Jays bullpen has lacked a long man, so maybe the Jays are hoping for a little regression on that long ball front to go with a few innings eaten up. Someone has to be there if Biagini&#8217;s starts don&#8217;t go entirely as planned. Or maybe Biagini has to be there if Koehler&#8217;s starts don&#8217;t go as planned. I&#8217;m open to ideas.</p>
<p>Koehler will also be eligible for another tour of arbitration next season, which gives the Blue Jays some options to try and hold onto him for depth. With this year&#8217;s issues and Estrada potentially leaving as a free agent, the club will certainly need a few options for the back of the rotation. Koehler is a serious non-tender candidate with that $5.5M salary, but the extra window will allow the Jays to try and work out a deal with him below that amount.</p>
<p>So farewell to Osman, we hardly knew ye. And lastly, remember, Koehler still eligible for the playoff roster, so no worries about not being able to use him when the team gets to the ALDS.</p>
<p>Lead Photo: <em>Steve Mitchell</em>-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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