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	<title>Toronto &#187; Gideon Turk</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>The Blue Jays Have Handled the Roberto Osuna Situation Badly</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/06/the-blue-jays-have-handled-the-roberto-osuna-situation-badly/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/06/the-blue-jays-have-handled-the-roberto-osuna-situation-badly/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 06 Jul 2018 10:43:42 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16265</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This isn’t a baseball article. Sure, it’s being published on a site that deals with baseball, and it&#8217;s centered around a baseball player and his team. But this isn’t a baseball article. This is an article about the role of a professional sports team in a city. When it comes to Roberto Osuna, the Blue [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This isn’t a baseball article. Sure, it’s being published on a site that deals with baseball, and it&#8217;s centered around a baseball player and his team. But this isn’t a baseball article. This is an article about the role of a professional sports team in a city.</p>
<p>When it comes to Roberto Osuna, the Blue Jays should believe they have a conundrum on their hands. One side of their thinking surely sees this 23-year-old, franchise-altering talent, and believes that the best thing for the franchise would be to welcome him back as the closer once his 75-game suspension for violating MLB’s domestic violence policy has been served. The other side of their thinking must be that he has committed an act so heinous that MLB found him to be worthy of a 75-game punishment, and that bringing him back after that &#8212; as if serving a suspension magically erases the domestic violence he committed &#8212; would be an affront to any morally conscious person.</p>
<p>Yet Blue Jays GM Ross Atkins seems to have had very little trouble making this decision at all. His comments last week to the media made it clear what his priorities are in this situation, and sadly, they are not the correct ones. Telling the media “Roberto is our closer. We&#8217;re running a baseball team and our goal is to win championships. Roberto could potentially be very much a part of that” &#8212; this clearly signifies what Atkins believes his role to be: bringing championship trophies to Toronto. But that isn’t it. That isn’t the function of a sports team at all.</p>
<p>I’ve <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/27/it-should-be-about-the-memories-for-the-blue-jays/"><span style="text-decoration: underline">previously written</span></a> that the Blue Jays’ front office should be motivated by no emotion more than memories. Making memories as a fan is what sports is all about. Good memories last a lifetime, and it takes equally as long to erase bad ones. So the idea that on August 4th the Blue Jays will welcome back Roberto Osuna with open arms and have him jog in from the bullpen with his “Don’t Panic” music blasting throughout the stadium is an obtuse one. On the field, his teammates might find it acceptable to play alongside him, but what about the fans who will be sitting in the stands? Are they supposed to forget about everything?</p>
<p>On Wednesday, Atkins was <a href="https://www.tsn.ca/radio/toronto-1050/atkins-injuries-to-jays-best-players-has-been-tough-to-overcome-1.1131227"><span style="text-decoration: underline">given a chance by TSN Radio</span></a> to respond to the “blowback” he has received about his comments made last week, and he basically echoed his previous statement, while also adding that “empathy is a great part of where our focus and energy is for everyone involved.” What empathy is Roberto Osuna currently deserving of?</p>
<p>The host on TSN Radio then asked a pertinent question, wondering if Osuna would still take the mound for the team if he was due in court in a few days. Atkins responded by saying that as long as he was legally allowed to, he would. This exchange highlights exactly what is wrong with the Blue Jays’ thinking. They are assuming that they can just separate the player from the actions, and focus only on what is happening on the field. But that isn’t at all the case.</p>
<p>As fans, we must see the entire picture. Our judgment is not clouded by the fact that our jobs are on the line if the team does not succeed. What picture does it paint if the Blue Jays’ closer is pitching on a Monday and is in court on a Wednesday? What message does that send to young fans &#8212; or, for that matter, to adult fans? The incorrect one. It says that the Blue Jays value sporting ability more than morality, and that the club is not afraid to broadcast that for everybody to know. That, simply, is wrong.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays must see their role in the city not as bringing championships, but as bringing joy. Who could be joyful seeing their favourite team succeed because of the actions of a domestic abuser? Even if his actions are forgiven in the future &#8212; which is not something anyone is required to do &#8212; they sure as hell don’t need to be forgiven while court proceedings are still ongoing.</p>
<p>Many will say that we should not judge Atkins’ comments until Osuna actually steps foot on the field for the Jays, arguing that Atkins might just be posturing to create more leverage in the trade market, in the hopes of a greater return for Osuna if the other 29 teams still believe that the Blue Jays plan on using him. Obviously, if the Jays&#8217; plan is to trade Osuna or outright release him because of his actions, Atkins wouldn&#8217;t just say that to the media &#8212; doing so would ruin any chance they had of bringing back a decent return for him.</p>
<p>But Atkins didn&#8217;t have to say the exact words that he said. Rather than callously declaring that it&#8217;s all about winning a championship, he could have talked about the issues facing the team in this situation. He could have said that they are unsure of their plans for Osuna at this time because of the difficult and uncommon nature of the case before them. When the team released their official statement after Osuna was suspended by MLB commissioner Rob Manfred, they had no difficulty saying that “as this remains a legal matter, the club will have no further comment at the time.” One wonders what happened to that notion.</p>
<p>So what is it going to be, Blue Jays? Make up your minds. It can’t be that you understand that the issue &#8220;remains a legal matter&#8221; and &#8220;will have no further comment,&#8221; but then once a week offer comments about Osuna&#8217;s future on the club once he returns from his suspension. And if at first instinct the decision was made not to comment because of the legal situation surrounding him, wouldn’t it be a good idea to not let him pitch while the court proceedings are occurring as well? Not everything is about winning games. Some things are about winning people.</p>
<div class="modal-image-setImageMetadata">
<p class="ng-binding"><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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		<title>Saying Goodbye</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/11/saying-goodbye/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/11/saying-goodbye/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Dec 2017 12:26:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14349</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When I first started writing about baseball, I had no idea where the journey would take me. I was a bright eyed thirteen-year-old who hadn’t even started high school yet. I was enthralled with the game and I wanted to add to my fandom to make it more exciting. I watched games, scored games, and [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When I first started writing about baseball, I had no idea where the journey would take me. I was a bright eyed thirteen-year-old who hadn’t even started high school yet. I was enthralled with the game and I wanted to add to my fandom to make it more exciting. I watched games, scored games, and discussed games with my family and friends, but none of them satisfied me enough to fill the hole in my baseball heart.</p>
<p>So I began to write. I wrote and wrote and wrote and wrote. I put silly little polls on my website, at the time named <i>Bases Loaded With Gidi,</i> and then would spam the comment sections on MLB dot com articles with links to my site, begging people to vote in the polls and give me feedback on my articles. Slowly but surely, for reasons I still do not comprehend, people began to come to my website regularly and read the work I published. The writing was terrible. The grammar was nonexistent. The articles were choppy. Yet for some reason, people continuously kept on coming back, so I continued to write.</p>
<p>Continuing to write was the best decision I ever made. The opportunities and experiences that I have been able to partake in because of my writing have been distinct and unique and have made my life so much more enjoyable. I was a kid, and I was being given chances to meet my idols.</p>
<p>I remember in grade 12, when the website was called <i>Blue Jays Plus</i>, I was sitting in the middle of a class when I received an email from the Blue Jays inviting anybody working for the website to the State of the Franchise event. I was overcome with pure joy and let out a huge scream that resulted in me getting kicked out of the class for misbehavior. I cared not. The people I was writing about were aware of my writing, and I thought it was the coolest thing ever.</p>
<p>Since then, my writing finally grew to the point where I can actually look back at some of my pieces and not be embarrassed that they were published. I owe this to three people specifically.</p>
<p>The first is the writing professor I had my freshman year of college, and this year, my senior year, Liesl Schwabe. Her feedback was and continues to be tremendously helpful, and she is always open to meeting and discussing my work, allowing me to build off of my previous mistakes. When I am bored sometimes, I’ll pull up an article I wrote in August 2014 and then one from January 2015, and laugh at how much of an impact Prof. Schwabe had on me. Although my writing was, and still is, not close to what I consider to be at the level necessary for a professional, she single handedly took my childish writing and turned it into something passably adult-like. For that, I’m forever grateful.</p>
<p>Secondly is Matt Gwin, one of the Editors-in-Chief here at BP Toronto, and one of the guys I originally amalgamated with at the forming of <i>Blue Jays Plus 2.0</i>. He has been editing my work for a while, and despite being just a year older than me, he has taught me so much not only about writing, but being a good person in general.</p>
<p>Lastly, there is Josh Howsam, the other Editor-in-Chief here at BP Toronto, and the guy who has personally edited the vast majority of my articles over the past two years that we have been with Baseball Prospectus. Josh’s editing style is so helpful because he worked with me to not only develop my writing, but to coax the idea I was trying to get across out of me. He was able to read my drafts and pick up on what didn’t make it onto the page, and talk with me until I was able to formulate the message I wanted. So many of my best pieces wouldn’t have been able to make the impact they have had without Josh, and I think it’s important to recognize how much he has to do with that.</p>
<p>I also want to thank the wonderful staff of writers here at BP Toronto. Not one article has been published on this website that I can look at and say I am not proud of, and that is because we have an awesome staff with incredible integrity and devotion to their craft. It sometimes is very easy to come up with a topic for a piece and write 1000 words on it, but it is a lot harder to make sure that day in and day out, pieces are being published that deserve to be published. This website is unique in that it covers everything a baseball fan could possible want in their writing. From statistical analyses to emotionally gripping stories, this staff is capable of writing everything, and for that, they deserve to be applauded.</p>
<p>Those aforementioned individuals impacted my writing more than anybody else, but I wouldn’t have written if it weren’t for you, the readers. I was only paid to do this for a brief period of time, but I gave up my pay voluntarily because I realized that I didn’t like doing this as a job. I liked writing because of the community and the discussion that led from my posts. For that, I thank you. Your comments, tweets, and messages are what has made this such an enjoyable experience over the past 7.5 years, and it is what makes me want to come back to writing in the future.</p>
<p>However, I was recently accepted to dental school, and although I won’t be starting until the Fall of 2018, I felt now was the right time to step away from BP Toronto. I have taken so much from my time as a writer, and have had so many amazing experiences from it, culminating with my piece <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14503" target="_blank">last week</a> featuring an interview with Mark Shapiro. I hope there will still be a vibrant and diverse community of Blue Jays fans interested in analytical writing when the time is right for me to pick up the pen again.</p>
<p>Go Jays Go.</p>
<p><em>Lead photo Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Digital Media and a Baseball Team: An Interview with Mark Shapiro</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/07/digital-media-and-a-baseball-team-an-interview-with-mark-shapiro/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/07/digital-media-and-a-baseball-team-an-interview-with-mark-shapiro/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 07 Dec 2017 11:39:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mark shapiro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14503</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In the Rogers era of the Toronto Blue Jays, we have witnessed many different relationship styles between the front offices and the media. J.P. Ricciardi didn&#8217;t hold back, said way too much, and ended up having to apologize when he stepped over the line. Alex Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston were the opposite, as they could [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In the Rogers era of the Toronto Blue Jays, we have witnessed many different relationship styles between the front offices and the media. J.P. Ricciardi didn&#8217;t hold back, said way too much, and ended up having to apologize when he stepped over the line. Alex Anthopoulos and Paul Beeston were the opposite, as they could speak for hours and say nothing of substance, just using corporate talk to stall until interviews were over. Now, we have Mark Shapiro and Ross Atkins, two leaders who strike a balance between the two extremes, and are doing a petty good job of it. On that note, I spoke with Shapiro, the Blue Jays President &amp; CEO, earlier this week about his relationship with the media.</p>
<p>So much goes on behind the scenes of a Front Office that we as fans are not privy to, but that raises the question as to why the team will tell the media some things, but keep other items behind closed doors. Shapiro said there is a balance to strike between the two because there are multiple factors at play:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;I think the balance when it comes to media always kind of lies in the reality that it is important to communicate because the media is a conduit to your fans. Not communicating is not an option. Where the challenge lies is that you&#8217;re talking about human beings. And so people&#8217;s lives, people&#8217;s careers, their well being, their potential earnings, their security, their families, their health&#8230;so, you oftentimes [have] reasons for decisions [that] can&#8217;t be articulated, because if you did, you would be saying something hurtful. While we may have good reasons for decisions, the nature of the decisions can&#8217;t always be fully explained publicly. I think that leads to frustrations from the media themselves, as well as fans, but it is one of the biggest challenges. That, and the reality of the news cycle, and the competitive nature that is has created.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>I was intrigued by his answer because only just recently, it was announced that Andrew Tinnish, one of the club&#8217;s Assistant General Managers, would be leaving the team to go work for Alex Anthopoulos in Atlanta (he has since backed out of that deal for personal reasons and will remain with the Blue Jays). At the time the move was reported, the Blue Jays were silent. This was something that seemed odd to me because Tinnish has been with the club in a variety of roles since the early 2000&#8217;s. I imagined that the club would have released a comment. Instead, they were silent, both when his exit was reported and the subsequent return. Shapiro said that there isn&#8217;t a &#8220;steadfast rule&#8221; when it comes to making comments, rather that the situation is fluid:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;In that circumstance, you&#8217;d have to ask Ross [Atkins] probably, but I think that is more about the Braves and Andrew, so it is up to them to comment, then it is about us. As far as how that would pertain to us, I guess it would be an overarching belief [that every employee has a] right to choose whether you stay or go. [That is] something we have always believed in, whether here or in Cleveland. We believe in unequivocally granting permission and letting each individual make the decision that the culture here is one they want to be a part of, or whether the opportunities elsewhere are compelling.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>That&#8217;s good to hear and was made even more clear just hours after the interview when it was announced that George Poulis would be leaving the club to go to Atlanta. The club shouldn&#8217;t force employees to work for them if they would rather be elsewhere.</p>
<p>I was still curious about the decision-making process of deciding when to comment and when not to, so I asked Shapiro about how he decides whether it is right to comment when false reports are put out there. His answer sheds light on what we already know: the club doesn&#8217;t comment on speculation very often:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;When it comes to speculation, if you start denying speculation, then the one time you don&#8217;t deny it, the media is going to know you&#8217;re not telling the truth. That creates a challenge of it probably [being] better not to comment, regardless of even if it is false, unless you&#8217;re going to comment every time &#8211; and nobody has time to comment every time.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>In addition, Shapiro said that when he talks with writers who don&#8217;t cover baseball exclusively, sometimes he must &#8220;remain patient&#8221;, which is &#8220;not always easy.&#8221; Those same writers in Toronto are also the ones who will from time to time create false narratives out of thin air to serve their agenda, rather than basing their stories out of fact. I don&#8217;t understand why the Blue Jays still give credentials to writers like that, but Shapiro said it is their duty:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;We don&#8217;t have the luxury of making decisions on who has access based on what they write, regardless of how much we disagree with it, or how sound we feel the process [was] &#8211; in writing the article, or in reporting the information, or publishing it on the internet. If you&#8217;re in this business, criticism &#8211; at times even unfair criticism &#8211; is just part of what you have to accept. I think you just want to be right in the end, not necessarily along the way.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><span style="color: #000000">That cleared things up in my mind because every time I see columns from certain writers I wonder how the club can still in good faith give them credentials when there are people in the city who add more to the discourse who can&#8217;t get access. T</span>hat led me to ask about what Shapiro views as the difference between the &#8220;old media&#8221; and the &#8220;new media&#8221; online:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;An analogy I always use is that the emerging digital media, be it from blogs or websites, provide a little bit of the freedom of expression that Netflix and HBO provide to programming, as opposed to network television or even traditional movies. It&#8217;s a longer format. It provides for more storytelling and probably more in depth analysis, without editors being restrictive in space, or even directive in commentary. So I think you&#8217;ll find a little more broad range of attentiveness, and sometimes more thoughtful analysis as well.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>I took that as very complimentary to the work being done here at BP Toronto and other sites like ours on the web, and Shapiro later added that &#8220;a lot, not all, of the analysis [on new media sites] is thoughtful.&#8221; However, he added that what he thinks &#8220;is not constructive, is anonymous internet social media exchange,&#8221; because &#8220;that is clearly more mean spirited and the level of anonymity provides people with the access and ability to  put out some pretty appalling commentary.&#8221;</p>
<p>Shapiro clearly had opinions on the type of content published online nowadays, so I took the opportunity to ask him something I was particularly curious about: whether he felt that media outlets, even ones like BP Toronto, have any duty to consider the impact of revealing certain leaked stories. I know that in my time reporting stories over the last little while this is something I had to take into consideration, so I wanted to know how he felt about it:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;I think that would assume that I am capable of doing someone else&#8217;s job better than them. I would always [consider the impact]. That is who I am. Considering the potential personal impact is something that should be factored in. I understand that someone who is more black and white, and [someone considering] what the responsibility of reporting is, might not factor that in, and I would never purport to know how to do their jobs. [But] for me, I would probably factor that in, in any consideration, in any business.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>Lastly, I wanted to know why his regime has been so much more inclusive when it comes to the new media than Paul Beeston and Alex Anthopoulos were in their time in charge. The &#8220;blogging&#8221; landscape has completely changed in Toronto since Shapiro took over, and I didn&#8217;t think this was an accident. He said that it wasn&#8217;t &#8220;a strategic thought&#8221; to be more inclusive, rather he just enjoys the &#8220;exchanges&#8221; with our ilk:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Look, in Cleveland, we hired guys from media. You guys are passionate about the game of baseball. You&#8217;re thinking about it in an in-depth way. There&#8217;s potential to learn from talking to you, I think, as well as reading [the work of online media]. I&#8217;m less likely to learn something from a traditional media that has to report on something in a very limited amount of space, with a narrative. I am just as likely to learn something from talking to them off the record, because of the amount of baseball they see, and the games they cover, [but] it&#8217;s just less likely than through what they write.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>That was pretty amazing to hear. I think all of us who write articles on the web are doing it for their own individual purpose, but to see that sometimes our subject actually takes notice of what we are publishing is good to hear. Some of the most intellectual baseball arguments and challenging of ideas that I have seen were published on sites like this one, so it&#8217;s excellent that Shapiro recognizes that he and his staff are able to learn from every possible opportunity.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Dear Shohei: A Recruitment Letter from the Toronto Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/27/dear-shohei-a-recruitment-letter-from-the-toronto-blue-jays/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/27/dear-shohei-a-recruitment-letter-from-the-toronto-blue-jays/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 27 Nov 2017 11:54:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shohei Otani]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14328</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over the weekend, Shohei Otani&#8217;s agent sent a memo to all 30 MLB teams requesting they write an explanatory letter detailing why their club is a fit for the Japanese superstar. It should include the following specifics:  “An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter; “Player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities; “Major [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><i>Over the weekend, Shohei Otani&#8217;s agent <a href="http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/red_sox/2017/11/shohei_ohtanis_agent_asks_mlb_teams_for_written_answers" target="_blank">sent a memo to all 30 MLB teams</a> requesting they write an explanatory letter detailing why their club is a fit for the Ja</i><em>panese superstar. It should include the following specifics: </em></p>
<ol>
<li><em>“An evaluation of Shohei’s talent as a pitcher and/or a hitter;</em></li>
<li><em>“Player development, medical, training and player performance philosophies and capabilities;</em></li>
<li><em>“Major League, Minor League, and Spring Training facilities;</em></li>
<li><em>“Resources for Shohei’s cultural assimilation;</em></li>
<li><em>“A detailed plan for integrating Shohei into the organization;</em></li>
<li><em>“Why the city and franchise are a desirable place to play;</em></li>
<li><em>“Relevant marketplace characteristics.”</em></li>
</ol>
<p><i>If we were writing the letter from the Blue Jays&#8217; organization, this is what it would look like: </i></p>
<p>Dear Shohei,</p>
<p>We have been watching you play for the Nippon Ham Fighters for the past two years, sending a rotating group of 8-10 scouts and executives over to Japan to view your 26 starts during that time period. Over the course of our time watching you, we have fallen in love with your seemingly endless talent. Our scouts have said they have never seen anything like you on the diamond and that if you were a free agent on the open market, we&#8217;d feel comfortable giving you a contract matching the likes of Giancarlo Stanton &#8211; You&#8217;re worth it.</p>
<p>Since overhauling our front office after the 2015 season, we have made a concerted effort to change how our organization handles player development and the off-field ways we can improve player performance. We have a dedicated staff that includes sports psychologists, nutritionists, and High Performance personnel, focused on squeezing every drop of talent out of our players and helping them take full advantage of their capabilities. Our medical staff is collecting new data every day to study how our players breakdown and recover and we believe that full integration and streamlining of our services will allow us to service our player&#8217;s health much better going forward, ensuring everybody stays on the field playing at the top of their game for as long as possible.</p>
<p>In the 2016 amateur draft, one of our current top prospects told other teams not to draft him, for he would not sign with them, as he, Bo Bichette, was only interested in playing for the Blue Jays. When asked why, he said it was because the Blue Jays would allow him to be himself &#8211; without forcing him to change his quirky swing &#8211; and our player development philosophy was the best he could see in the league.</p>
<p>Our facilities in Toronto are as good as they get across baseball. Our clubhouse is spacious, our training facilities have recently been upgraded or are in the process of being renovated to feature everything our high performance department requests, and our artificial turf playing surface at the Rogers Centre will allow you to play your home games on the same surface you are used to playing on at the Sapporo Domo in Hokkaido.</p>
<p>Our minor league facilities are also top-notch, though because you will be coming straight to Toronto to play with the big league club, they are not as much as a concern. What will matter to you is our facilities in Dunedin, Florida, our Spring Training home since our inception. We have just entered an agreement with the City of Dunedin to renovate both of our properties in the city, which will be ready for the Spring of 2019. We are planning to make our Dunedin complex a year-round base for our club, and thus we will be designing and renovating the buildings to fit with all the newest technological advances in baseball conditioning and training as our high performance department requests. We feel you are a franchise talent and will be with us for many years to come, and thus if you would like anything particular in our new Spring Training home, you are invited to request we add it to our renovation plans.</p>
<p>When it comes to your cultural assimilation, there is no organization better positioned to help you than the Blue Jays. Toronto is a diverse, cultural mosaic, composed of many different groups that come together to help each other live the best lives possible. The Japanese community in Toronto is rich and flourishing, with more than 20,000 Japanese-Canadians living in Toronto as of 2010. One of our fanbases&#8217; most beloved icons is Munenori Kawasaki, who had a child in Toronto during his time with the club and will forever be in our Canadian hearts. If you haven&#8217;t yet spoken to him about his time in Toronto, we strongly suggest you reach out to him &#8211; He will only have words of praise for our city and franchise.</p>
<p>As for how you&#8217;d fit on the roster, at the current moment we could use help at the front of the rotation and in the corner outfield spots and believe you are the perfect talent to help us get back to the playoffs like we did in 2015 and 2016. If you sign here, we will give you the Opening Day start as our ace, and will work with you to develop a healthy plan that allows you to play as a batter, both in the field and as a designated hitter, on days which you are not starting on the mound. We believe you have the talent to become the first successful two-way player in America in a very long time and we are committed to seeing your dream become a reality.</p>
<p>The city is also a cultural beacon, with night life that is unrivaled in North America, featuring great restaurants, bars, museums, theaters, sporting events, and parks. You will feel right at home with us, and will never lack for an activity in one of the world&#8217;s most vibrant cities. However, the greatest thing about playing for the Blue Jays is that you are not just playing for a city, but as all of our alumni can attest to, you are playing for an entire country. All of Canada will have your back when you get on the mound and you step into the batter&#8217;s box. In 2016 and 2017 we led the American League in attendance and all of baseball in TV viewership, averaging over 900,000 and 700,000 viewers per game respectively, and your arrival will only further fan interest in the team. Toronto loves baseball when the product is enjoyable and you will be the most important figure in the city for six to seven months a year if you join our organization.</p>
<p>As a foreigner coming to a new country, we cannot promise there will not be challenges. There always are when it comes to moving across the world to start a new job with new faces and new people, but we will provide help for you in every way imaginable to make your transition as smooth as possible. We want the best for you and feel that Toronto, and Canada, is the place where you will be able to have the brightest baseball career in the future and the happiest life when you&#8217;re not playing baseball. You will have every available option you could possibly want, and we will work tirelessly to make sure you are happy.</p>
<p>Lastly, Donald Trump is President of the United States of America, but we are based in Canada.</p>
<p>Sincerely,</p>
<p>The Toronto Blue Jays Baseball Club</p>
<p><em>Lead photo via <a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/prayitnophotography/8216501686/in/photolist-dw4HGb-ywqQc2-xKE9tG-6fTwHf-eifFLG-sNPNaX-gfWQ2x-XpvCe8-cW4vj7-fbjw6K-9sM6f2-oBoiiP-PYqu8-yHrg8M-xN3BEp-LCMrmt-77D7RU-FdB7Bo-7597Rk-MWWNo2-UQgKtc-UvK8x5-vb6k6C-rvJtfH-XHxB6t-aNXcwt-oBE4mT-QPnioT-ahDF4o-rNbsE8-j1Wt4b-86st4N-WfsK8N-8pVwEf-AM2bRv-6M7qMD-o19rUb-LCMqN4-bmn6HE-tvYtF2-u5pukn-eqwPhF-7pZJk8-gvJWe6-SnwsFF-QZZG25-wHE7E9-8ThP4w-PuRw2T-Dfie3a" target="_blank">Prayitno</a> </em><em>and licensed under <a href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/2.0/" target="_blank">CC BY-SA 2.0</a>.</em></p>
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		<title>Blue Jays Sign Former First Round Pick Deck McGuire to MiLB Deal</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/16/blue-jays-sign-big-leaguer-deck-mcguire-to-milb-deal/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/16/blue-jays-sign-big-leaguer-deck-mcguire-to-milb-deal/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 16 Nov 2017 22:08:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Deck McGuire]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14195</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays announced today that they have signed RHP Deck McGuire to a minor league deal with an invite to MLB Spring Training. Blue Jays sign RHP Deck McGuire to a minor league deal with an invite to Major League camp https://t.co/HGHk7rLkIr &#8212; Blue Jays PR (@BlueJaysPR) November 16, 2017 You may remember McGuire [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays announced today that they have signed RHP Deck McGuire to a minor league deal with an invite to MLB Spring Training.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Blue Jays sign RHP Deck McGuire to a minor league deal with an invite to Major League camp <a href="https://t.co/HGHk7rLkIr">https://t.co/HGHk7rLkIr</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Blue Jays PR (@BlueJaysPR) <a href="https://twitter.com/BlueJaysPR/status/931277433998733312?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">November 16, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>You may remember McGuire as the guy the Blue Jays selected with their first pick in the 2010 MLB Draft, 11th overall and just two picks before the White Sox selected some guy named Chris Sale. The Blue Jays would go on to have a historic draft, selecting a total of 10 additional players that would go on to appear in major leagues for various teams, including current Blue Jays Aaron Sanchez and Dalton Pompey. McGuire, however, could never put it all together in the Toronto minor league system and was traded in 2014 to Oakland for cash considerations.</p>
<p>He then bounced around between the A&#8217;s, Dodgers, Cardinals, and Reds before <em>finally</em> making his big league debut with Cincinnati this past season. He spent the majority of the season with Cincinnati&#8217;s AA team, putting up solid numbers with a 2.79 ERA and 170 strikeout in 168 innings before appearing in six games with the big league team in September. He numbers were also pretty great in his cup of coffee, pitching to a 2.63 ERA in 13 2/3 innings pitched, with 11 strikeouts and just two walks.</p>
<p>More interesting than his numbers though is his stuff, which we can get a small look at through the numbers at <a href="http://www.brooksbaseball.net/tabs.php?player=592547&amp;p_hand=-1&amp;ppos=-1&amp;cn=200&amp;compType=none&amp;risp=0&amp;1b=0&amp;2b=0&amp;3b=0&amp;rType=perc&amp;balls=-1&amp;strikes=-1&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;time=month&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=traj&amp;s_type=2&amp;gFilt=&amp;startDate=01/01/2017&amp;endDate=01/01/2018" target="_blank">Brooks Baseball</a>. The 28-year-old&#8217;s fastball touched 96 MPH for the Reds, though it averaged 93 MPH. He also features a sinker, changeup (with 8 MPH of separation from his fastball), slider, and curveball. His mix of pitches does make him more suited for a rotation spot, but as we have seen many times before, if his stuff does play up to solid levels out of the pen, he may be worth a look in that spot.</p>
<p>As always, there is never such thing as a bad minor league deal. It&#8217;s no risk, all reward, and the Blue Jays need to have pitchers in AAA just as much as they need pitchers in Toronto. If he can keep on having success and help out at the big league level, that&#8217;s great. If he&#8217;s just going to be minor league filler, that also works. He&#8217;ll never be Chris Sale, but at this point, that doesn&#8217;t really matter.</p>
<p>Welcome back, Deck. Let&#8217;s hope round two features a lot more success than round one did.</p>
<p><em><i>Lead Photo: </i><i>Patrick Gorski-USA TODAY Sports</i></em></p>
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		<title>It’s Time for the Blue Jays to Trade Kevin Pillar</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/10/its-time-for-the-blue-jays-to-trade-kevin-pillar/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/10/its-time-for-the-blue-jays-to-trade-kevin-pillar/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 10 Nov 2017 11:46:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Kevin Pillar]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Teoscar Hernandez]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14078</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;ve written my fair share of articles on Kevin Pillar over the years, most of them praising him and looking optimistically at his future with the Blue Jays. However, this one is not going to be like the others. This one is going to advocate for the Blue Jays to trade Kevin Pillar. Everybody knows [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;ve written my fair share of articles on Kevin Pillar over the years, most of them praising him and looking optimistically at his future with the Blue Jays. However, this one is not going to be like the others. This one is going to advocate for the Blue Jays to trade Kevin Pillar.</p>
<p>Everybody knows why Kevin Pillar is valuable; there are no ambiguities about where his talents lie. The 29-year-old&nbsp;is good because he gets to balls in the outfield that a lot of other plays can&#8217;t get to, thus making life a lot easier on the Blue Jays&#8217; pitching staff. But&nbsp;it&#8217;s an oversimplification to&nbsp;just assume that reputation holds as true now as it did when Pillar started to burst onto the scene&nbsp;and into walls in 2015. In fact, the evidence suggests that Pillar has had quite a dramatic downturn in his defensive skills recently. Going by the Statcast numbers, Pillar completely changed in 2017, costing the Blue Jays two outs relative to the average fielder, whereas he earned them an extra 15 outs in 2016.</p>
<p>That difference can be seen most dramatically in what Statcast refers to as four star and five star plays, the hardest outfielders can make. In 2016, Pillar converted 64 and 22 percent of his opportunities for making these plays, respectively. That accounts for 16 four star plays made, and nine five star plays. In 2017, those percentages shrunk to 26.7% and 0.0%, equaling raw totals of 4 and 0 plays made respectively. That is a big swing in plays that Pillar once made, that he didn&#8217;t convert on in 2017.</p>
<p>This is important because Pillar is who he is at the plate. He won&#8217;t be changing anytime soon. He has talked about being a different hitter many times in the past, but in the end, once the sample size increases and small discrepancies are weeded out, Pillar is still the player who is overzealous at the plate and is very liberal with what he swings at. Because of that,&nbsp;the value he provides offensively is virtually non-existent, if not detrimental&nbsp;in the aggregate. Therefore, his entire value lies with his fielding. And if his fielding has shrunk as the statistics would seem to say (If Statcast data wasn&#8217;t enough for you, FRAA, DRS, and UZR all agree with the sentiment as well), then we have already seen Pillar&#8217;s prime, and it would be wise to get off the train now.</p>
<p>If the Blue Jays decide to make Pillar available, they are in a unique situation this winter because there are not many&nbsp;centre field options available on the open market, yet there are a few suitors. Lorenzo Cain is the only free agent who is definitively better than Pillar at this time, as Jarrod Dyson has faded and is now recovering from surgery, while Carlos Gomez probably should be in a corner outfield spot when play starts in 2018.&nbsp;As for teams that could use a centerfielder, the lists includes the Rangers, Royals, Brewers, Mets, Giats, and Mariners, though&nbsp;I&#8217;m sure that list would expand if the Blue Jays were looking to trade Pillar.</p>
<p>Of course, trading Pillar doesn&#8217;t make much sense if the Blue Jays don&#8217;t have a replacement for him. Making one hole to fill another isn&#8217;t how you build a good baseball team. Luckily, the Blue Jays have accrued outfield depth in recent years and would be able to replace Pillar if traded. The list of possible names include Anthony Alford, Teoscar Hernandez, and even Dalton Pompey, if you somehow believe there is something left there.</p>
<p>Alford had a very good 2017 campaign when he wasn&#8217;t dealing with the injury he suffered in his brief call up to Toronto and although the team was dealing with a roster situation when they originally brought him up, they wouldn&#8217;t have made that move and started his clock without the belief that he could play in the majors. Scouts rave about his defense and when the bar to clear offensively is Kevin Pillar, it&#8217;s hard to believe that he wouldn&#8217;t be able to at least mimic that performance.</p>
<p>For Hernandez,&nbsp;I think most would agree that his offensive talent exceeds that of Pillar&#8217;s. The question for him would be if his defense translates to centre field or if he is better suited for a corner spot. More than likely the answer is that he does belong in left or right field, but again, if the bar to exceed is the value Pillar puts up, I think it would be reasonable to assume that the offensive gain would be bigger than the defensive loss.</p>
<p>The&nbsp;reasoning behind all of this is that the Blue Jays must get something in return for trading Pillar. Discussing what they may get is a fool&#8217;s errand, because unless you&#8217;re in the front office, you don&#8217;t know how teams value him. However, no matter what, the Blue Jays would save money from ridding themselves of Pillar and deciding to play Alford or Hernandez. Both of those players are scheduled to make the league minimum in 2018, while Pillar is <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/10/projected-arbitration-salaries-for-2018.html" target="_blank">projected </a>for a salary of $4.0 million according to MLBTR. Those $3.5 million in savings could go along way to helping this club&nbsp;build when it seems like the team currently only has about $25 million to spend this off-season.</p>
<p>Pillar has had a fantastic career in Toronto, no doubt. He has&nbsp;overachieved since being drafted, but his value is correlated directly to his success in the outfield. If that success is slowly coming to an end as he ages, he all of a sudden doesn&#8217;t become the best use of $4 million when players exist within the Blue Jays system that could provide similar value for an eighth of the cost. If that means Pillar should be traded, it&#8217;s been nice while it lasted. But in the end, the team has to make the smart move to build the best possible roster from player one through 25.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo:&nbsp;Caylor Arnold-USA TODAY Sports<br />
Jays Journal <a href="https://jaysjournal.com/2017/11/06/blue-jays-maybe-now-right-time-trade-kevin-pillar/" target="_blank">recently published</a> a piece on the idea of trading Pillar as well. This article was started prior to the Jays Journal article being released.</em></p>
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		<title>It Should Be About the Memories for the Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/27/it-should-be-about-the-memories-for-the-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Oct 2017 14:23:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Josh Donaldson]]></category>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13974</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m enrolled in a class this semester in which we&#8217;re reading modernist novels, and for somebody who doesn&#8217;t identify as much of a literature nerd, I&#8217;ve felt extremely in over my head for the better part of the past two months. I only decided to start studying English on top of my science courses last spring, so this is [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m enrolled in a class this semester in which we&#8217;re reading modernist novels, and for somebody who doesn&#8217;t identify as much of a literature nerd, I&#8217;ve felt extremely in over my head for the better part of the past two months. I only decided to start studying English on top of my science courses last spring, so this is my first class doing this type of work and I&#8217;ve had a hard time adjusting to it. I&#8217;m just not very good at reading a text and analyzing it &#8211; I think my brain works better that way with numbers.</p>
<p>We started reading a text in this class a few weeks ago that I absolutely detested for its complete lack of a scintillating plot and sentences that run on for entire paragraphs: <em>In Search of Lost Time</em> by Marcel Proust. Although my professor insisted that this is a popular book and people enjoy it, I refused to believe her on the grounds that it took all of my might to read more than a few pages at a time without falling asleep or becoming angry at how different it is from anything I have ever read before in my life. Every class I&#8217;d come in and throughout the discussions the professor would promise me that I&#8217;d eventually fall in love with Proust&#8217;s seemingly endless sentences and his plotless book.</p>
<p>She was right. Somehow, despite being devoid of all plot, Proust&#8217;s writing is intoxicating because it takes random details and reflects on them. He takes objects from his (fictional) everyday life and uses them as triggers to remember incidents and times in his life as a child. The book is a masterpiece of memory, easily the most relatable piece of writing I have ever read, as it seems like every topic he delves into can somehow be tied into every person&#8217;s life in one way or another.</p>
<p>How does this have anything to do with baseball, and specifically about the Blue Jays? We all watch this sport with only one purpose in mind: to make memories. We watch it so twenty years down the line we can say that we remember that time when Jose Bautista did this or Marcus Stroman did that. This makes the coming off-season an especially interesting one for the Blue Jays because they are at a crossroads of sorts.</p>
<p>If the Blue Jays were anything in 2017, it was old. They got injured so much, because they were old. Being baseball&#8217;s oldest team meant that injuries would be more common. That fact leads many people to hope for the club to sell their assets this winter and try again to compete in a few years. If you read social media sites, you&#8217;ll see plenty of people clamouring for an Astros or Cubs-style rebuild.</p>
<p>While the front office may have to take a different outlook, as a viewer, that notion is ridiculous. Any talk of that sort should not even be considered a plausible option. The path forward for the Blue Jays should be to just go for it again in 2018, not to give up before the season even starts. Nobody remembers a bad team and nobody watches baseball to cheer for a bad team. We cheer because we want to be excited by the product on the field. We cheer because we want memories that we can enjoy for a lifetime. Baseball is about memories.</p>
<p>With that said, there is only one way the Blue Jays should operate this winter. Full speed ahead. Josh Donaldson shouldn&#8217;t be traded, because there is no realistic scenario in which trading arguably the best third baseman in baseball makes the club better in 2018. You may not have noticed because he missed almost two months due to injury, but Donaldson had another excellent season in 2017. It was the first time since he became a star that Donaldson missed significant time due to injury and just because something happens once doesn&#8217;t mean it will happen again. I think it&#8217;s safer to say Donaldson will be as healthy as he was from 2013-2016 in 2018, than to say he will repeat his injury woes from 2017. And because of that, there is really no case where Donaldson provides more value to the Blue Jays as a member of another club than he does as a regular playing everyday next year for Toronto.</p>
<p>However, Donaldson can&#8217;t push this team to the playoffs alone, so keeping him only makes sense if management is committed to building a not-terrible team around him. As I <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/29/the-minnesota-twins-and-the-path-forward-for-the-toronto-blue-jays/" target="_blank">wrote about last month</a>, that doesn&#8217;t require much, rather it may just be about creating a playable floor, allowing the team to not give hundreds of at-bats to players that are costing them wins every time they take the field.</p>
<p>When it comes down to it, even if the Blue Jays go for it and fail miserably, everybody will remember that they tried. The 2013 season might have been one of the most disappointing seasons as a Blue Jays fan, but it was still so memorable because they tried to win, and that&#8217;s all that really matters. Like a Proustian sentence, the baseball season is seemingly endless, but what gets you through it is that you&#8217;re reading about memories &#8211; and making memories of your own. Getting through the exhausting baseball season requires the same thing, and if the Blue Jays want to make 2018 tolerable, it&#8217;s going to need to start next month, with a plan of building, not a plan of waiving the white flag.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Winslow Townson-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>The Minnesota Twins and the Path Forward for the Toronto Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/29/the-minnesota-twins-and-the-path-forward-for-the-toronto-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Sep 2017 10:59:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
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		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minnesota Twins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13585</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On Tuesday at FanGraphs, Jeff Sullivan asked his readers &#8220;What if the Twins Won the World Series?&#8221; Although the question was an interesting one, what interested me more is the cause for the article to be written in the fist place. The Twins lost 102 games in 2016, and have now clinched a spot in the postseason [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On <a href="https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-if-the-twins-won-the-world-series/" target="_blank">Tuesday at FanGraphs</a>, Jeff Sullivan asked his readers &#8220;What if the Twins Won the World Series?&#8221; Although the question was an interesting one, what interested me more is the cause for the article to be written in the fist place. The Twins lost 102 games in 2016, and have now clinched a spot in the postseason just one year later (the first team to ever do that). That&#8217;s a remarkable turnaround, but one that is a lot less shocking than it would have been had it occurred, say, 10 years ago, before the advent of the second wild card.</p>
<p>Although the Twins will be in the playoffs this year, they aren&#8217;t elite. They&#8217;ll probably finish the season with about 85 wins, or about nine more than the Blue Jays will have come next week. At the start of the season, the Blue Jays were unanimously picked by the major projection systems to be better than the Twins. BP had the Blue Jays&#8217; playoff percentages at 27.3% with the Twins at 20.5%, while FanGraphs had the Blue Jays at 52.1% and the Twins at 5.1%. The Twins just weren&#8217;t supposed to be a good baseball team, while the Blue Jays were supposed to be decidedly mediocre. What happened is that the Blue Jays were bad, and the Twins were mediocre. However, mediocre plays in today&#8217;s MLB.</p>
<p>Specifically, the American League is very top heavy. I define a good team as one that doesn&#8217;t flirt with .500 much. Any team with at least 87 wins would be good by my definition. There are only four teams that meet that standard in the American League. There were five last year, and four the year before that. Six each of the two years before that, and seven in 2012. The great thing about this is that there are five playoff spots available, so if a team is fine &#8211; not good, not bad, just fine &#8211; they can remain in the race until very late in the year. That means not selling at the deadline, and that means increased ticket sales and tv ratings throughout the end of the season.</p>
<p>So where are the Blue Jays in all of this? We all watched the team this year and we all saw a product on the field that seemed to just be bad at winning ballgames. But that isn&#8217;t the truth. The truth is that <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/22/the-blue-jays-were-out-of-their-depth-in-2017/" target="_blank">injuries</a> and complete meltdowns by key players sunk this club. Jose Bautista&#8217;s 10th percentile PECOTA projection entering the year was a TAv of .269 and a VORP of 17.6. That means that the absolute worst scenario that PECOTA foresaw for Jose Bautista was .269 and 17.6. What has actually happened is that Bautista has hit for a TAv of .237 and has actually had a VORP of -4.0. For Kendrys Morales, his .253 TAv is about in line with his 20th percentile projection of .251. Those are two cliff-like drop offs that could not have been expected.</p>
<p>A replacement level team according to FanGraphs&#8217; version of WAR would win 48 times throughout a season. That means that a playoff team in the American League will likely need to be worth about 38 wins above replacement in 2018. From some rough projections, I figure that the Blue Jays can get about 35 WAR from the players they currently employ. That math is <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/09/Screen-Shot-2017-09-26-at-7.16.58-PM.png" target="_blank">pretty rough</a>, but I think it is actually a little pessimistic on certain players. However, what those numbers presume is that the Blue Jays aren&#8217;t getting negative value from any specific position. I made the Blue Jays bench a net zero WAR bench and their last two relievers with zero WAR each. That would be a major improvement over this season where the Blue Jays have lost 5.3 wins from batters performing below replacement level and 3.0 from pitchers. Add an extra eight wins to the Blue Jays right now and things look a lot different with a weekend to go in the regular season.</p>
<p>What that all means is that the Blue Jays have a pretty easy path towards competing for the second wild card spot in 2018. How can they do it? How can they make like the Minnesota Twins and go from bad to mediocre enough to make the playoffs? Well, a bit of good luck would help, but short term free agents would help as well. Creating a bench that isn&#8217;t awful would go a long way. There are opportunities to improve at both outfield corners, as well as the back of the rotation. Adding a few players who aren&#8217;t stars, but aren&#8217;t as awful as Ryan Goins and Kendrys Morales have been, on one year deals, can help this team transition to the fire power that awaits in the minor leagues for 2019.</p>
<p>Trading Josh Donaldson closes the curtain on competing in 2018. Keeping him and the rest of the core around (minus Bautista and Morales) allows this team to be in it next season. Making sure that no roster spots are going to below replacement level players can avoid the problems that befell the team this year and can allow the players who are actually good to not be sunk by their peers. The Twins are making the playoffs this season because they were fine. Nobody has been saying that they want to watch the Twins, because they aren&#8217;t a sexy team. They are mediocre. They get the job done. In today&#8217;s American League, that&#8217;s all that needs to happen. Creating a floor of replacement level will allow the the Blue Jays to do just that, if they so please.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Brad Rempel-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>How the Blue Jays View Shohei Otani</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/13/how-the-blue-jays-view-shohei-otani/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/13/how-the-blue-jays-view-shohei-otani/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 13 Sep 2017 14:33:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[News]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[mark shapiro]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[ross atkins]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Shohei Otani]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13414</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Japanese sensation Shohei Otani seems to have finalized his decision to come to North America this winter and make the transition from Japanese baseball to MLB according to reports in Japan. Otani is only 23-years-old and is famed for his ability to hit and pitch extremely well. The Blue Jays are definitely interested in Otani, as a source within [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Japanese sensation Shohei Otani seems to have finalized his decision to come to North America this winter and make the transition from Japanese baseball to MLB <a href="https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/09/reports-from-japan-suggest-shohei-otani-will-request-to-be-posted.html" target="_blank">according to reports</a> in Japan. Otani is only 23-years-old and is famed for his ability to hit and pitch extremely well. The Blue Jays are definitely interested in Otani, as a source within the club told me that eight to ten members of the Blue Jays Front Office and scouting staff have been to Japan to watch the young phenom. So, how do the Blue Jays view Otani, and is it possible that they could land him this winter?</p>
<p>The source made it clear that the Blue Jays are interested in him beyond due diligence, evidenced by the fact that &#8220;it is not cheap&#8221; to send 8-10 members of the organization over to Japan to scout somebody. The source continued by saying that the Blue Jays will be involved in contract talks with Otani, &#8220;unless the money gets really crazy&#8221;, adding that if allowed, he would &#8220;give [Otani] the Stanton contract for sure and sleep at night.&#8221; That&#8217;s very high praise.</p>
<p>Despite this not seeming like something that is Mark Shapiro&#8217;s style, &#8220;this guy is the one who is unique&#8221; said the source, continuing with &#8220;most of us have never seen anything like him at his age&#8221;.</p>
<p>One flaw in this might be that the Blue Jays have already used some of their bonus money, and thus won&#8217;t be able to offer Otani as much as other clubs. However, the source said that when it comes to Otani, he gets the feeling that it is &#8220;about fit and future money,&#8221; and speculates that any contract the star player signs in MLB will have a handshake agreement on a long term deal once he has played for some time in North America.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; main point of contact in Japan is Dan Evans, who the source says &#8220;has an outstanding relationship he has cultivated with the GM and President of Nippon [Ham],&#8221; the team Otani plays for currently in the NPB. Evans &#8220;has a lot of weight [in Japan], and has been working on this for at least four years,&#8221; according to the source with the Blue Jays. &#8220;[Evans] wants him badly,&#8221; he continued.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays are also in the midst of expanding their presence in Asia under their new Front Office. They are &#8220;indentifying and developing relationships now with the Japanese clubs for the future,&#8221; creating much more of a &#8220;process in Asia&#8221; than what existed under Paul Beeston and Alex Anthopoulos.</p>
<p>The source&#8217;s report also says that Otani&#8217;s tools are all &#8220;near the top of the scale, to go along with the maturity of a 35-year-old&#8221; despite being only 23 years of age. He was also said to have &#8220;the humility of the 25th man on the bench&#8221; and be &#8220;a manager&#8217;s dream.&#8221; The club believes he is a &#8220;likely Ace and an All-Star 30/30 RF type&#8221; who would likely DH in MLB, though the source believes Otani wants to go somewhere he can play in the outfield from time to time.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays will likely have a couple of openings in their outfield this winter, especially in right field, so that could come into play.</p>
<p>In my view, the Blue Jays landing Otani seems like a big reach, but it&#8217;s exciting nonetheless to see how involved they are in the process and the strides they are making in Asia as a whole for the future.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton &#8211; USA Today Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Putting Justin Smoak into Jose Bautista&#8217;s Context</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/08/putting-justin-smoak-into-jose-bautistas-context/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/08/putting-justin-smoak-into-jose-bautistas-context/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 08 Sep 2017 10:10:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jose Bautista]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Justin Smoak]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13296</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays have been defined by no player better in the past decade than Jose Bautista, the former utility journeyman turned home run king. His transformation was the only thing that got fans through the lean years between Roy Halladay and the 2015 playoff run. He was the star. But before he was able to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays have been defined by no player better in the past decade than Jose Bautista, the former utility journeyman turned home run king. His transformation was the only thing that got fans through the lean years between Roy Halladay and the 2015 playoff run. He was the star.</p>
<p>But before he was able to do that, Jose Bautista had doubters. Hitting 54 home runs in 2010 was nice, but because he was going to be a free agent after the 2011 season, the Blue Jays had to make a decision about whether they believed in his talent or if he was a fluke. The decision polarized Toronto, with both sides of the debate having ample support. Alex Anthopoulos ended up betting on Bautista and extended him for five years before the 2011 season started. He decided that what he saw in 2010 was worth the risk. But throughout that process, Jose Bautista had his doubters.</p>
<p>Justin Smoak does not.</p>
<p>Smoak, of course, is going through a breakout of his own this season. With 137 games played in 2017, Smoak has received 552 plate appearances and hit a gaudy .283/.361/.561 with 37 home runs. I posed a question <a href=" I%20posed a question on Twitter earlier in the week, asking " target="_blank">on Twitter</a> earlier in the week, asking whether people were buying Smoak&#8217;s breakout more than they did Bautista&#8217;s and if so, why they were doing so. I received a few answers and I want to explore them in a bit more detail here. So why is Justin Smoak turning into an All-star more believable than Jose Bautista doing the same?</p>
<h3><strong>Prospect Status</strong></h3>
<p>When Jose Bautista became an All-Star at the age of 29, it was the first time in a while people believed in his talent. He was never listed on any top prospect lists while developing in the Pittsburgh Pirates minor league system. His comments in the Baseball Prospectus Annual in the mid 2000&#8217;s were about his future as a utility man and he ended up bouncing around from team to team in the Rule Five Draft. Nobody was jumping to get their hands on Bautista in hopes that he would become the next big thing.</p>
<p>The complete opposite is true for Justin Smoak. He was taken 11th overall in the 2008 MLB Draft by the Texas Rangers, then rose as high as 17 on Baseball Prospectus&#8217; top prospect list and 13 on Baseball America&#8217;s. When the Rangers wanted to Cliff Lee to front their playoff rotation in 2010, they needed to part with Smoak because he was a can&#8217;t miss prospect. In 2009, BP said this of Smoak:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Think Justin Morneau with the ability to switch-hit—he could be that scary.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>It&#8217;s easy to see why people believe in Smoak today more than they did in Bautista eight years ago. For Smoak, it has been a matter of figuring things out and reaching his potential. In Bautista&#8217;s case, it was like he made a change to his baseball DNA, allowing him to reach heights nobody ever saw coming.</p>
<h3><strong>Contract Details</strong></h3>
<p>As previously mentioned, Bautista was scheduled to hit free agency after the 2011 season, so there was a sense of urgency when it came to deciding what to do with him after his monstrous 2010. The Blue Jays could either have him play out the 2011 season, see if 2010 was a fluke and then make a contract offer, or they were able to extend him before 2011 and risk owing a lot of money to a player with just one good year. They decided on the latter, and it paid off for them.</p>
<p>With Smoak, the urgency doesn&#8217;t exist. Much to the chagrin of Blue Jays fans last year, Smoak was given a contract extension for the 2017 and 2018 seasons with a six million dollar option for 2019. Although the move was widely questioned at the time, the Blue Jays brass defended it. Now they can enjoy the fruits of their labor for the next two seasons.</p>
<p>What this means is that while for Bautista, people felt the need to question his talent because a lot of money was on the line, that just isn&#8217;t the case for Smoak. Even if he crashes back down to earth next season, the Blue Jays still just owe him fewer than five million dollars. If he repeats his 2017 next season and then crashes in 2019, the Blue Jays will owe him for that team option, another small price that would have virtually no financial impact on the club. Believe in Smoak or don&#8217;t believe in him, but either way, there isn&#8217;t a lot riding on him compared to Bautista after his breakout.</p>
<h3>Becoming &#8220;Good&#8221;</h3>
<p>Nobody mentioned this one when responding to my tweet, but I do think it is pretty important to discuss. Jose Bautista&#8217;s ascent to stardom was well documented. Everybody knew about his leg kick. He made a dramatic change that led to dramatic results. It was very easy to point to one specific thing and say that is what caused him to become a superstar. He perfected his timing and was able to increase his power because of it. It didn&#8217;t take a rocket scientist to figure that out.</p>
<p>Ask somebody how Smoak has turned his career around, and the answers you&#8217;ll get will likely be a lot murkier. That&#8217;s because there hasn&#8217;t been some drastic change. Rachael McDaniel <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/08/justin-smoak-is-finally-having-fun-playing-baseball/" target="_blank">wrote about</a> Smoak&#8217;s emotional well being and how he is finally having fun while playing baseball. That could be it, but we obviously have no way to quantify that to see if it is responsible. Matt Gwin <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/24/the-new-and-improved-justin-smoak-is-here-to-stay/" target="_blank">wrote about</a> the more statistical and mechanical changes that have occurred, but if you go and read that article, you&#8217;ll see that it is a combination of changes that have got Smoak where he is today. It wasn&#8217;t just one leg kick thing, it&#8217;s a whole host of mechanical and discipline-based changes.</p>
<p>Knowing this, you&#8217;d think that people may not believe in Smoak as much as Bautista. For Bautista it was there for all to see. For Smoak, you have to be a pretty smart person to be able to break down his swing into parts and see the minor details that have been altered. If something looks the same but produces different results, usually we&#8217;d think it wasn&#8217;t sustainable.</p>
<p style="text-align: center">***</p>
<p>In the end though, I think people believe in Smoak because there isn&#8217;t much else to believe in right now when it comes to the Blue Jays big league team. It&#8217;s been a very disappointing season and Smoak has been the only breath of fresh air since it started. Sure, the Blue Jays didn&#8217;t make the playoffs in 2010, but they won 85 games. They were a good team! There was more at stake with that club, even though they ended up taking a step back, than there is with this one. Combine that with the fact that he&#8217;s cheap and had an entire industry pegging him to be the next big thing fewer than 10 years ago and Smoak&#8217;s breakout lasting for a long time doesn&#8217;t seem so far-fetched.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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