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		<title>How Great Were Alex Anthopoulos&#8217; Drafts?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/12/how-good-were-anthopoulos-and-shapiroatkins-blue-jays-drafts/</link>
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		<pubDate>Mon, 12 Jun 2017 17:07:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11587</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yesterday, I took a look back at Blue Jays drafts held under the regimes of Gord Ash and J.P. Ricciardi, in an effort to look at what makes a good draft for the Jays. Unlike that piece, which focused on trying to evaluate the tenures of general managers who have been gone long enough to do some [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yesterday, I took <a title="What Makes for a Good Blue Jays Draft?" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/11/what-makes-a-good-blue-jays-draft/" target="_blank">a look back at Blue Jays drafts</a> held under the regimes of Gord Ash and J.P. Ricciardi, in an effort to look at what makes a good draft for the Jays. Unlike that piece, which focused on trying to evaluate the tenures of general managers who have been gone long enough to do some honest to goodness analysis about their successes and failures, today’s piece functions as a mid-point check in for the Anthopoulos draft era.</p>
<h3><strong><b>Alex Anthopoulos</b></strong></h3>
<p>In order to do this, I tracked every player who was drafted under Anthopoulos who has played an inning of affiliated baseball in 2017. This does mean that my method will miss many of the high school draft picks from the more recent drafts, as some of them won’t have reached full season baseball yet. I don’t think there are many glaring people I’m missing out on, but at the same time I’m sure someone will emerge.</p>
<p>Note that stats for this article were compiled Sunday, June 11<sup>th</sup>.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/AAPicture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-large wp-image-11588" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/AAPicture1-1024x556.png" alt="AAPicture1" width="800" height="434" /></a></p>
<p>That 2010 class! Whew. I just needed to towel myself off for a second. Coming away from a draft with two ace level pitchers and then adding a full handful of major league contributors is absolutely incredible. What makes this year even more impressive is that the Blue Jays did this without even an iota of production from their top pick, Deck McGwire.</p>
<p>One of the defining aspects of Anthopoulos’ drafting tenure was his tendency to not sign his first round pick but then somehow still come out looking like roses. The 2011 draft was the best example of this, where the Blue Jays passed on signing first round pick Tyler Beede. Under the old drafting system, AA was able to take the money he’d planned on spending on Beede and divert it to third round pick Daniel Norris (who’s a much better pitcher than Beede by himself), and then select Marcus Stroman (also much better than Beede) with the compensatory pick the following year.</p>
<p>This pattern repeated itself in 2013 when they failed to sign ninth overall pick Phil Bickford. Due to the new draft slotting system, the team lost the slot budget that came with the pick, but Anthopoulos was still able to secure high upside prospects Rowdy Tellez and Jake Brentz with the overages they would’ve spent on Bickford. He then turned around and took Jeff Hoffman with the compensatory pick the next season. Bickford has fought injury troubles and is now suspended 50 games for marijuana while Tellez is knocking on the door of the big leagues in AAA and Jeff Hoffman is absolutely dominating in Colorado. This definitely isn’t strategy that I would recommend teams taking up, but it was shockingly effective for Mr. Anthopoulos.</p>
<p>Alex Anthopoulos clearly put an emphasis on acquiring pitchers through the draft process, which is one that I think is rare these days especially after looking what the Cubs did to create the backbone of their rebuild. The common thought is that pitchers are risky and always break, so you’re much better off drafting and developing hitters and then using those assets to trade for more established, safer pitchers. Anthopoulos turned this theory on its head by being shockingly consistent at producing major league pitching talent.</p>
<p>On the flip side however, Anthopoulos and his team&#8217;s ability to draft hitting talent was nowhere near as strong. The club didn’t invest many high draft picks in the process, so the failure of D.J. Davis and the unfortunate injury that marred Max Pentecost’s first few professional seasons have an outsized impact on this impression.</p>
<p>I’ve always thought that creativity and outside the box thinking was Anthopoulos’ greatest asset as a general manager and I think the greatest example of that is Anthony Alford. I’m not sure there’s another executive that would’ve had the guts to pay someone nearly a seven figure signing bonus with the understanding that he’d still be able to play football. Most other teams would’ve just let the kid go to college, fail in his football dream, then try and draft him once he was eligible after college. Anthopoulos paid him, let him go to school, and play baseball part time just so he could get such a talent into the system.</p>
<p>I’m not sure that this is a strategy that would have a high degree of success. Alford could’ve gotten hurt playing football, he could’ve been too good at football to come back to baseball, and his lack of reps during key years could’ve led to atrophy. However Anthopoulos saw that talent there, and took the jump. That’s what I want in my team’s executive.</p>
<p>At the same time that if I want to give Anthopoulos points for the process involved in the Anthony Alford selection, even if it hasn’t borne fruit yet at the major league level, I feel I need to throw cold water on the process behind the only starting calibre position player drafted under Anthopoulos, Kevin Pillar. While Pillar is a fantastic underdog story, it’s not one that can be credited to the draft process. When you’re taking a college player in the 32<sup>nd</sup> round, you are only looking for someone to fill out your low level minor league teams. The credit for Pillar’s success goes not to the scout who found him, but to the development staff that worked with him, and of course to Pilllar himself for the hard work he put in to make it to the major leagues.</p>
<p>Finally, while there isn’t much point on doing this type of work for the Atkins/Shapiro era, its nice and easy to take a look at his only draft, which frankly is shaping up wonderfully.</p>
<h3><strong><b>Ross Atkins/Mark Shapiro</b></strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/shap-Picture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11589" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/shap-Picture1.png" alt="shap Picture1" width="437" height="322" /></a></p>
<p>Even with T.J. Zeuch off to a bit of an underwhelming start in Dunedin, this is already shaping up to be quite a decent draft. Third round pick Bo Bichette is shaping up to be a superstar with a 1.000+ OPS while playing shortstop and second base in Lansing, where he shouldn’t be much longer.</p>
<p>The other story of this draft after just the first year is first baseman Bradley Jones, who <a title="The Best Kept Secret in the Blue Jays Organization: Bradley Jones" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/05/11/the-best-kept-secret-in-the-blue-jays-organization-bradley-jones/" target="_blank">Gideon Turk profiled on the site in late May</a>. Jones was a late round college pick who, after destroying the Mid-West League for most the first half of the year, has gotten the bump to Dunedin. There isn’t a model of prospect that I’m leerier of than college first baseman, they usually come crashing down to reality once hitting the upper levels (see McBroom, Ryan and Dantzler, L.B.), but this is a very fun ride for as long as it lasts.</p>
<p>That&#8217;s it for Shapiro/Atkins, but this list will continue to grow today with the Blue Jays having two picks in the first round of the 2017 First Year Player Draft.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What Makes for a Good Blue Jays Draft?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/11/what-makes-a-good-blue-jays-draft/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/11/what-makes-a-good-blue-jays-draft/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sun, 11 Jun 2017 15:01:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11568</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What is the value a major league team can expect a draft class to produce? This is the question that had been bouncing around my head for the past few weeks, since an offhand Twitter discussion between myself, Joshua Howsam (BP Toronto Co-Editor-in-Chief), and Jesse Goldberg-Strassler (Lansing Lugnuts broadcaster) got my brain spinning on the topic. [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What is the value a major league team can expect a draft class to produce?</p>
<p>This is the question that had been bouncing around my head for the past few weeks, since an offhand Twitter discussion between myself, Joshua Howsam (BP Toronto Co-Editor-in-Chief), and Jesse Goldberg-Strassler (Lansing Lugnuts broadcaster) got my brain spinning on the topic. In order to attempt to answer this question, I went all the way back to the 1995 draft (the start of the Gord Ash era) to get a large enough sample size. While only looking at one of the thirty major league teams isn’t sufficient to make determinations about the average Major League draft class, it will at least give us an idea of what the Jays generally produce.</p>
<p>Before we dive into the results, I think it’s appropriate to define some terms and also to look at exactly what teams are looking for when they are selecting players in the June draft. I see there as being four objectives that clubs are looking to achieve in the draft.</p>
<p>1 – Hunt for stars</p>
<p>2 – Find core players</p>
<p>3 – Find major league contributors</p>
<p>4 – Fill out major league depth with fringe big leaguers</p>
<p>===================</p>
<p>Given that criteria, I’ve divided players into 4 categories.</p>
<p><strong><b>Stars</b></strong> – Marked in Pink</p>
<p><strong><b>Contributors</b></strong> – Marked in Yellow</p>
<p><strong><b>Partial Contributors</b></strong> – Marked in Orange</p>
<p><strong><b>Major Leaguers, but not Contributors</b></strong> – Unmarked</p>
<p>These classifications were made incredibly unscientifically &#8211; and if people would like to quibble with how I’ve classified any players I’d encourage you to do so in the comments &#8211; but I had to make the cut off somewhere. Any player that didn’t make the major leagues is unaccounted for by my method. As far as I see it, unless a player is able to at least reach the major leagues, they have provided no value to their club.</p>
<p>With that said, there are two criteria that I used when evaluated drafted players. First, how much major league playing time did they receive (gauged in Innings Pitched or Plate Appearances). Secondly, I looked at how good they were (gauged by the suite of WAR metrics).</p>
<p><em>Also of note, any player who produced negative WAR is scored at zero (and denoted in red). It doesn’t seem logical to punish a team for a player for making the major leagues only to achieve poorly, when had he been even worse and not made the majors in the first place, they’d have been scored a zero.</em></p>
<p>Finally, I’m aware that the General Manager has minimal input on the draft process (and essentially none once you get past the first couple rounds), and most of the credit/blame for achievements in the draft should go to their scouting departments. However, it’s handy to use the change of the top executive as a way to break time into epochs and switches in overall draft philosophy.</p>
<h3><strong><b>Gord Ash</b></strong></h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Ash-1-1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11575" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Ash-1-1.png" alt="Ash 1 1" width="635" height="499" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/ash-1-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11576" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/ash-1-2.png" alt="ash 1 2" width="635" height="160" /></a></p>
<p>The first thing that jumped out to me when looking at Gord Ash’s draft history is that, holy crap, Dustin McGowan is still active! Who on earth would’ve figured that the last active player from this crop would’ve been the guy who’s had his shoulder cut on twice, to go along with knee &amp; elbow surgeries. We really don’t spend enough time marveling at all the work Dustin must’ve put into his career.</p>
<p>Ash’s 1997 draft deserves a special highlight as I believe it’s the best Blue Jays draft in modern history. Coming away from a draft with three 20+ WAR hitters, all of whom I think could be argued were stars (though I don’t give the O-Dog that designation) is the gold standard that anyone can expect from a single class. It’s worth keeping this class in mind when we’re tracking Alex Anthopoulos’ 2010 draft class, since this is as good as things get.</p>
<p>While I don’t have a terrific baseline to compare against, I think it’s worth noting that Ash had a good amount of success in the later rounds (which I’m classifying as outside the top 100 picks). Aside from the three late pick successes in the aforementioned 1997 draft, adding a borderline star in the criminally underrated Casey Blake as well as a cadre of role players like Jay Gibbons, Reed Johnson, &amp; Brandon Lyon is more than you could typically expect.</p>
<p>The 2000 draft stands out as an especially notable miss for Ash and the rest of his team. In that year, the Jays were equipped with 5 top 100 picks, and came away with only the injury marred career of Dustin McGowan to show for it.</p>
<p>The other way I looked at each GM was to compare how they handled each tier of picks.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Ash-2.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11570" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Ash-2.png" alt="Ash 2" width="388" height="543" /></a></p>
<p>While Ash did a very good job with his various first round picks (with only two failing to turn into at least major league contributors) he essentially struck out entirely when picking in the 2<sup>nd</sup> and 3<sup>rd</sup> rounds.</p>
<p>It’s also worth noting that it’s a bad thing when you fail to pick between 20 and 30 for your entire tenure (a problem that’s continued into the next administration as well). Being a Blue Jays fan was pretty darn rough for this 15 year span.</p>
<p>My bottom line takeaway from looking at the drafting tenure of Gord Ash (an era that I only vaguely remember personally), is that he was quite good at this. I’m not sure if I expanded my sample to include other clubs if that belief would hold up. I also fear J.P. Ricciardi’s lack of success may be tainting my thoughts here.</p>
<h3>J.P. Ricciardi</h3>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Jp-1Picture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11572" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Jp-1Picture1.png" alt="Jp 1Picture1" width="713" height="400" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Jp-1-point-5-Picture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11573" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Jp-1-point-5-Picture1.png" alt="Jp 1 point 5 Picture1" width="713" height="465" /></a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/JP-2Picture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11577" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/JP-2Picture1.png" alt="JP 2Picture1" width="317" height="138" /></a></p>
<p>What can I say; this is just a bloodbath.</p>
<p>J.P. Ricciardi appears to have been an exceptionally poor drafter, almost regardless of how you choose to evaluate the process. He failed completely at landing a star, he universally underachieved with his first round picks, and his late round selections failed to make up the difference.</p>
<p>While I would normally be reluctant to offer final thoughts about a GM’s draft history less than eight years after his termination, it’s really shocking just how few players that the J.P. Ricciardi-led Blue Jays drafted are still relevant major league contributors. Aside from his final draft in 2009 (which we’ll get to later), J.P.’s legacy is down to the pair of Adam Lind and Aaron Hill (whose careers are winding down), the returning Eric Thames, and a pair of left handed relievers in Marc Rzcepczynski and Brett Cecil. That’s it!</p>
<p>The barren wasteland that is the 2005 and 2006 drafts seems especially galling. The only big leaguers those drafts produced were Ricky Romero (Ricciardi’s highest draft pick) and Travis Snider (JP’s highest rated prospect), who both massively underachieved. Aside from that, both drafts were complete shutouts. Part of the issue with both of the years is that the team lacked draft capital: The Blue Jays were without a second round pick in both 2005 and 2006, and in 2006 they were also lacking a third round pick. While this does explain some of the poor results, it doesn’t explain away completely missing on literally every other pick in the draft.</p>
<p>On the flipside, the 2009 draft jumps off the page when looking at Mr. Ricciardi&#8217;s tenure, and not just because it’s by far his most successful. While the draft started out incredibly poorly with another first round miss in Chad Jenkins and the failure to sign Canadian second round pick James Paxton (who would&#8217;ve been the best player J.P. ever drafted) it was followed by a steady stream of big leaguers. It’s when looking at this draft class that the flaws of Ricciardi&#8217;s conservative, college-heavy approach come into the sharpest relief, since it seems this draft was run under a much different ethos. It stands out that the two most notable success stories from this draft come from the lottery ticket type of draft approach I would personally advocate for. I&#8217;m not sure that Ricciardi would&#8217;ve pulled the trigger on a raw high upside outfielder like Jake Marisnick or a relatively unknown Brazilian catcher like Yan Gomes had he not been on the hotseat, but they wound up being his best draft picks.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/jp-3-Picture1.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-11578" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/jp-3-Picture1.png" alt="jp 3 Picture1" width="378" height="548" /></a></p>
<p>While the stark difference between outcomes between first round picks and the rest of the top 100 picks stood out when looking at Gord Ash history, it’s the exact inverse that is shocking when it comes to Mr. Ricciardi. Only having one of your nine first round picks emerge as a major league contributor is a shockingly low number.</p>
<p>As a bit of a diversion, when looking at JP Ricciardi’s draft history, I can’t help but think of Moneyball and the ideas espoused in that seminal work in regards to draft strategy. The biggest issue I’ve always had with the book was Michael Lewis lionizing Billy Beane’s strategy of focusing on college players who were perceived as safe, but had a relatively low upside. Even at the time I was reading a book that’s shaped my life more than any other published work, it struck me as odd that a strategy that hadn’t borne any results yet was receiving so much praise. If the career arc of one Jeremy Brown wasn’t enough to dissuade you that Mr. Beane’s strategy was flawed, looking at the work done by his prodigy Mr. Ricciardi should solidify that thinking.</p>
<p>Now that Ash and Ricciardi are done, all that remains it so look at the work of Alex Anthopoulos. That will come in a separate piece soon.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © The Star-Ledger-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Team Canada WBC Notebook</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/11/team-canada-wbc-notebook/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/11/team-canada-wbc-notebook/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 11 Mar 2017 10:27:15 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9424</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In Thursday’s game against the Dominican Republic, there was but a single Canadian player who stood out from the pack and had legitimately impressive performance. That player was pitcher Andrew Albers, who threw two shutout innings in relief, giving up just a solitary hit and needing just 28 pitches to get through the incredibly stacked Dominican [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In Thursday’s game against the Dominican Republic, there was but a single Canadian player who stood out from the pack and had legitimately impressive performance. That player was pitcher Andrew Albers, who threw two shutout innings in relief, giving up just a solitary hit and needing just 28 pitches to get through the incredibly stacked Dominican lineup. However, after just those 28 pitches, Albers was lifted from the game. Since then I’ve really been struggling to find the justification for why he was removed so quickly.</p>
<p>If Canada was already getting shelled, and the result was well out of reach at the time, I’d have nothing to complain about. However in the top half of that inning, Canada had scratched out their second run of the game, and only trailed by two runs at the time.</p>
<p>If Canada had intended to ensure Albers would be available for the next two games in the tournament, they only had to ensure he throw fewer than 45 pitches. He easily could’ve pitched another inning and still been available for use today or tomorrow.</p>
<p>But no, Albers was removed from the game and all but one of the subsequent five Canadian pitchers proceeded to give up a run, leading to the 9-2 final score.</p>
<p>I’ll be honest, I got frustrated when Albers was lifted from the game, and it wasn’t because I thought Canada had a good chance to beat the Dominicans or anything. I was frustrated because I have no idea what Canada’s objective is in this tournament, and I don’t think the team itself knows either.</p>
<p>To my eyes, the pitching staff for Thursday’s game was handled like an All-Star game, as though the objective was to get as many pitchers into the game as possible. Aside from the questionable Albers pull, Ernie Whitt seemed to be paying very little attention to platoon splits with his relievers.</p>
<p>Thus far, this tournament has been about longshot underdogs coming through. Whether it was Israel winning their group, Italy upsetting the Mexicans Thursday night, or Colombia pushing the Americans to extra innings on Friday, this tournament has shown that even when there’s a huge talent deficit, crazy things happen in baseball. I don’t believe that Canada put this roster together with an eye to pulling off the crazy upset, nor do I think yesterday’s game was managed with that in mind.</p>
<p>Attention now turns to Canada’s game today vs. the Colombians, a game that Canada almost certainly needs to win if they hope to automatically qualify for the next iteration of the World Baseball Classic. For this critical tilt, Canada will turn to their best pitcher, Phillies right handed prospect Nick Pivetta. Colombia will counter with Braves ace Julio Teheran. Canada will be in tough, especially against a Colombian team that will either be on a high after such an impressive performance against the Americans on Friday, or feel like they have something to prove after losing on a walk-off in a game started by Jose Quintana.</p>
<p>This is the lineup Canada will be going with:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="in" dir="ltr">Canada lineup vs. Colombia (Teheran)<br />CF Pompey<br />DH Morneau<br />3B Wood<br />1B Freeman<br />LF O&#39;Neill<br />RF Romak<br />C Kottaras<br />2B Orr<br />SS Malo</p>
<p>P Pivetta</p>
<p>&mdash; Today in the MLB (@TodayintheMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/TodayintheMLB/status/840555544771493888">March 11, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>And here&#8217;s who they&#8217;ll be facing:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="es" dir="ltr">Colombia lineup @ Canada (Pivetta)<br />SS D.Solano<br />1B Rodriguez<br />3B Urshela<br />C Alfaro<br />RF Valdez<br />2B Sanchez<br />LF Ramos<br />DH J.Solano<br />CF Polo</p>
<p>P Teheran</p>
<p>&mdash; Today in the MLB (@TodayintheMLB) <a href="https://twitter.com/TodayintheMLB/status/840579648564150273">March 11, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>The game starts at noon ET. Fingers crossed.</p>
<p><strong><b>Notes</b></strong></p>
<ul>
<li>For the Dominicans, Jose Bautista looked outstanding at the plate, going 3 for 4 with <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v1234119383/candom-bautista-crushes-threerun-shot-to-pad-lead/?game_pk=486911" target="_blank">a moonshot of a homerun</a>. This obviously comes with endless caveats. The production came against a collection of (retired) journeymen, and minor leaguers, but the ball went really far, and it made me feel all warm and fuzzy inside. I’m so happy he’s back</li>
<li>On the flip side, Bautista looked poor both on the base paths, and in the outfield. First in the top of the 5<sup>th</sup>inning, Bautista failed to corral a Dalton Pompey fly ball to left, which turned into a run scoring double. Then in the bottom of the same inning, Bautista was thrown out at home (on an excellent relay by both Pompey &amp; shortstop Jonathan Malo). On both plays Bautista looked incredibly slow afoot, and further reinforced my belief that the Jays would be better off if Bautista transitioned to first base</li>
<li>I’m generally not one to root for someone to lose their job, but on a day when Postmedia here on the west coast laid off nearly 40% of their newspaper staff, I just don’t understand how Steve Simmons remains employed. He is a bitter small man,<a href="https://twitter.com/simmonssteve/status/840033113623392256" target="_blank"> who is clearly just a troll</a>.</li>
<li>Jonathan Malo, who I still know almost literally nothing about, had a fairly notable game. Aside from the aforementioned relay throw, Malo reached on an error, and scored later via a balk by Dominican starter Carlos Martinez. That’s grit!</li>
<li>George Kottaras played! He got a hit. This makes me happy.</li>
<li>Or rather it would, if he hadn’t been pinch hit for in the 9<sup>th</sup> While I’m well aware that no one loves Mr. Kottaras as much as I do, I can’t for the life of me figure out why Ernie Whitt decided that Kottaras was the one who deserved to be pinch hit for, and not retired, soft-hitting 2<sup>nd</sup>baseman Pete Orr. The only possible explanation I can think of is that Ernie Whitt thinks that Pete Orr is a better hitter than George Kottaras, and that is frankly insane.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Logan Bowles-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Takeaways from Team Canada vs. Toronto Blue Jays</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/03/08/takeaways-from-team-canada-vs-toronto-blue-jays/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 08 Mar 2017 14:57:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9296</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I just have a few thoughts after watching Team Canada’s exhibition vs. the Blue Jays Tuesday afternoon, as well as the first few days of action in the Tokyo and Seoul. Canada Roster Changes Canada has officially announced three changes to their roster. First, Blue Jays farmhand Mike Reeves has replaced Rangers prospect Kellin Deglan [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I just have a few thoughts after watching Team Canada’s exhibition vs. the Blue Jays Tuesday afternoon, as well as the first few days of action in the Tokyo and Seoul.</p>
<h3><strong><b>Canada Roster Changes</b></strong></h3>
<p>Canada has officially announced three changes to their roster.</p>
<p>First, Blue Jays farmhand Mike Reeves <a href="http://www.baseball.ca/reeves-added-to-wbc-roster" target="_blank">has replaced Rangers prospect Kellin Deglan</a> as the backup catcher. Reeves is a 25 year old career minor leaguer who has never played above the Single-A level. I’m disappointed that Baseball Canada didn’t turn to 2016 52<sup>nd</sup> overall pick Andy Yerzy to fill that role. With Greatest Living Canadian George Kottaras entrenched as the team’s starting catcher, I really think it makes more sense to give the exposure to the youngster over the steady veteran.</p>
<p>Secondly, Cubs prospect southpaw <a href="http://www.baseball.ca/kellogg-added-to-world-baseball-classic-roster" target="_blank">Ryan Kellogg has been added to the team</a>, replacing the withdrawing Adam Loewen. Kellogg, a 5<sup>th</sup> round draft pick back in 2015, is someone I thought should’ve been on this team all along. At just 22, Kellogg made an impressive debut in full-season ball in 2016, posting an ERA a shade over 3.00 in his 24 appearances in the Mid-West league. Control appears to be his primary asset, walking just 26 batters in his 130 innings last season, and he looked quite good in the clean inning he posted on Tuesday.</p>
<p>The loss of Loewen is disappointing, as it removes the possibility of Loewen being used both ways in this tournament. With the Canadian roster only featuring four outfielders, including starting a player the calibre of Rene Tosoni vs. the Blue Jays, I thought there was at least a possibility of Loewen seeing some time as a corner outfielder, especially late in games. With this news, that option obviously goes out the window.</p>
<p>Lastly, Athletics reliever, and Team Canada closer John Axford withdrew from the tournament, and <a href="http://www.baseball.ca/therrien-added-to-wbc-roster" target="_blank">has been replaced by Phillies relief prospect Jesen Therrien</a>. Therrien made a serious jump last season, reaching Double-A and nearly doubling his strikeout rate to more than 12 per 9 innings. Along with Kellogg, Therrien is a player I’d have liked to have seen on the roster from day one and an intriguing arm that I hope we get a chance to see during the tournament.</p>
<h3><strong><b>Canada is Shorthanded</b></strong></h3>
<p>Unless there are more last minute additions to the roster, Canada will be going into the World Baseball Classic with open slots remaining on their roster.</p>
<p>In the World Baseball Classic, teams are permitted a 28-man roster, and from the announcements Canada has made thus far there are only 26 players currently on the team.</p>
<p>I can’t for the life of me explain why Canada wouldn’t want a full roster of players. There are numerous roles on the club that could be filled by additional players. As things stand right now, Canada only has four outfielders and three middle infielders, an issue that could constrain key tactical moves late in ball games. Also, purely as a fan, knowing that there are open slots makes me even further question why Vladimir Guerrero Jr. isn’t sitting on the Canadian bench. Even if you didn’t think he could help the team on the field, Guerrero would provide an interesting talking point, and a point towards excitement in the future for Canadian baseball fans.</p>
<p>Things get really confusing when you <a href="https://www.worldbaseballclassic.com/teams/can" target="_blank">turn to the World Baseball Classic site</a> to try to further investigate the Canadian roster.</p>
<p>When you scroll down to the roster section of that page, you see three new pitchers added to the roster in Dominican born Jose Fernandez, Texan born John Stilson, &amp; Florida born Justin Shafer. Two of these pitchers (Fernandez and Stilson) pitched for Team Canada in their exhibition game vs. the Jays on Tuesday, and it wasn’t clarified on the broadcast so I just assumed those players had been loaned to Canada for the game by Toronto. After seeing them on Team Canada’s roster, I’m now questioning myself. As someone who’s been covering Blue Jays prospects for a long time, I can say with a good degree of certainty that John Stilson is not Canadian.</p>
<p>Weird stuff’s going on. I just don’t know what.</p>
<h3><strong><b>Old Timers</b></strong></h3>
<p>Eric Gagne gave up a hit and a walk while pitching a scoreless third inning. To my untrained eye he looked like a fairly credible pitcher with a fastball in the low 90s, and a bevy of junk ranging from a slow looping curveball and his typical circle change, to a slider that I do not remember him throwing during his heyday. I’m certainly intrigued to see him pitch more during the tournament, but where are the goggles?!</p>
<h3><strong><b>Youngsters getting a chance</b></strong></h3>
<p>Dalton Pompey looked good. Pompey reached base in each of his four plate appearances (once by an error), stole a base, and <a href="http://m.mlb.com/video/v1232345383/cantor-pompey-lays-out-for-diving-catch/?game_pk=510000" target="_blank">made a highlight reel catch</a> in center field. He is going to get an opportunity to star in this tournament and I continue to believe he’s the Blue Jays best option in left field.</p>
<p>I like that Ernie Whitt slotted Tyler O’Neill into the third slot in the lineup, but O’Neill struggled. After walking in his first at bat, O’Neill saw just nine pitches in his remaining three at bats, striking out on three pitches each time. The strikeouts will be there with O’Neill, I just really hope he gets a hold of one of the pitches he swings very hard at over the course of the tournament. He’s gonna make a baseball go a long way.</p>
<p>Padres prospect Josh Naylor replaced Freddie Freeman at first base in the fourth inning, and ripped a double to center field in one of his two at bats. Naylor also impressed defensively, snagging a line drive down the line. Naylor is obviously blocked on the roster by Morneau and Freeman, but it appears he should be the first bat off the Canadian bench.</p>
<h3><strong><b>Canada got screwed by the draw</b></strong></h3>
<p>After seeing the calibre of play being shown in the first two days of action in Asia, I’m becoming increasingly bitter that Canada was put into a group where they have practically no chance of advancing.</p>
<p>Even a Canadian team in its depleted state is a stronger team on paper than the upstart Israeli team advanced out of Pool A last night. Meanwhile in Pool B, it does appear that this version of the Cuban National Team is a weaker version than we’ve seen in the past, which is hardly surprising given the recent spate of defections. Were Canada in Pool B in place of Australia, their chances of advancing would likely ride on a single game against the Cubans, and I’d take that dice roll.</p>
<p>All those hopes and dreams feel completely dashed due to Canada’s situation of being paired with the Americans and the Dominicans, who are the two most talented teams in the tournament. It’s a shame.</p>
<h3><strong><b>George Kottaras Played!</b></strong></h3>
<p>He got a walk and a hit. He’s awesome.</p>
<p>Lead Photo: © Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</p>
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		<title>WBC Preview: Team Canada Pitchers</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/21/wbc-preview-team-canada-pitchers/</link>
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		<pubDate>Tue, 21 Feb 2017 11:00:44 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=9087</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[After dealing with the hitters late last week, and taking a look at the disappointing lack of roster direction earlier in the week, it’s now time to turn our attention to the pitching staff. Unlike on the hitting I will not be providing PECOTA projections, because with the exception of big league relievers Henderson &#38; [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>After dealing with the hitters <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/15/wbc-preview-team-canada-hitters/" title="WBC Preview: Team Canada Hitters" target="_blank">late last week</a>, and taking a look at <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/14/wbc-preview-team-canada-a-club-without-a-purpose/" title="WBC Preview: Team Canada – A Club Without a Purpose" target="_blank">the disappointing lack of roster direction</a> earlier in the week, it’s now time to turn our attention to the pitching staff.</p>
<p>Unlike on the hitting I will not be providing PECOTA projections, because with the exception of big league relievers Henderson &amp; Axford, none of the other pitchers are projected to fill a role that they will fill in this tournament or in the big leagues for that matter.</p>
<p><strong><b>Starting Pitcher – RH – Ryan Dempster – 40 Years Old – Free Agent</b></strong></p>
<p>The 2017 World Baseball Classic will feature the return of the greatest Canadian pitcher of my lifetime. After the 2013 season, when Dempster was coming off winning a World Series with the Boston Red Sox, he surprisingly announced that he was taking the year off to spend more time with his children. After 2014 this hiatus became a permanent retirement. What made this decision so surprising was that Dempster had been owed nearly $15 million and you almost never see players who are healthy enough to play walking away from an eight figure paycheque.</p>
<p>Immediately upon his retirement, Dempster shifted into a Special Assistant role with the Cubs, though he’s no longer listed on their website as a member so I’m unclear as to if he still has this role. It is basically impossible to know what to expect from Dempster in this tournament. He is the only starting pitcher (assuming that’s the role he’s used in) on the team who has ever been Major League calibre at any point in his career, but how much have his skills atrophied in his 1200+ days away from the sport?</p>
<p>Regardless of how things shake out, Dempster certainly makes this team more interesting and is a player that I’m very curious to watch.</p>
<p><strong><b>Starting Pitcher – RH – Nick Pivetta – 24 Years Old – Philadelphia Phillies (AAA)</b></strong></p>
<p>Aside from newly transitioned relief pitcher Rowan Wick, the only pitcher on the Canadian roster with actual upside is Phillies prospect Nick Pivetta. After a 2015 season that saw him struggle to make the jump to the Double A level and also be traded to the Phillies in the Jonathan Papelbon trade, there were major doubts about Pivetta’s long term promise. That changed in 2016, as Pivetta made major strides and earned a late season call up to Triple A. Despite pitching at the two highest levels of the minor leagues, Pivetta posted not only the lowest ERA of his career, but also the highest strikeout rate and lowest walk rate. Most of this improvement seemed to come on the backs of increased command on his plus fastball (which can touch 97), and continued development of his improving curveball.</p>
<p>One of the issues facing Pivetta going forward is that he may be blocked by the multitudes of starting pitchers that the Phillies already have occupying slots in their rotation. Even though I believe Pivetta will still be given the opportunity to start, it’s possible he could be forced to the bullpen due to team needs. If that does happen, his arsenal could be very well suited to that role.</p>
<p><strong><b>Starting Pitcher – LH – Shane Dawson – 23 Years Old – Toronto Blue Jays (AA)</b></strong></p>
<p>Dawson is the only Blue Jays prospect on the pitching side of this roster. After a really strong 2015 across both low and high-A ball that saw him strike out 120 batters while walking just 32 across 127 2/3 innings, Dawson was challenged with a promotion New Hampshire (AA) this past year. His control completely abandoned him (72 walks in 134 IP), and along with it went his success.</p>
<p>He has a reasonably low ceiling, as he barely cracks 90 and neither of his offspeed pitches grades out better than plus, but he does have <em>some</em> upside for success, and is the one I&#8217;d prefer to see get the third starting spot in the round robin.</p>
<p><strong><b>Starting Pitcher – LH – Scott Diamond – 30 Years Old – SK Wyverns (KBO)<br />
</b></strong><strong><b>Starting Pitcher – LH – Andrew Albers – 31 Years Old – Atlanta Braves (AAA)<br />
</b></strong><strong><b>Starting Pitcher – RH – Chris Leroux – 33 Years Old – Free Agent</b></strong></p>
<p>Once you get past the one starter who is probably too old to be on this team (Dempster) and the two prospect-eligible starters (Pivetta &amp; Dawson), we come to a trio of pitchers who I’ll deal with together. Quite frankly I’m baffled three soft tossing starting pitchers have found their way onto the Canadian roster. It’s incredibly likely that Canada will only play the minimum three games in this year’s tournament, and with Ryan Dempster and Nick Pivetta hopefully starting at least two of those games, I just don’t see the need for three players who make one another largely redundant.</p>
<p>None of these pitchers have an arsenal that is well suited to transition to a bullpen role, so beyond one of the trio being used as Canada’s third starter (and as mentioned above, I’d prefer to see Shane Dawson used in that role), these three will likely be relegated to a mop up role. I’d quibble about the need for even a single pitcher to fill that role in a short tournament, but you most definitely do not need three of them.</p>
<p><strong><b>Relief Pitcher – RH – John Axford – 34 Years Old – Oakland Athletics (MLB)</b></strong></p>
<p>Finally, a full-time major leaguer!</p>
<p>No longer the ace reliever he was in the early part of his career, or the unplayable gascan from the middle, Axford has settled in as a solid, if unspectacular member of a major league bullpen. Over the last couple of years (including a season in Colorado), Axford seems to have fixed the home run problems that plagued him in his early 30s. He still has the big time fastball (averages 96.6 mph and touched 100) and the hammer curveball that made him successful, and has recently added a cutter that helps him post elite ground ball rates (56 percent). The issue, as always, will be his ability to throw strikes. If he&#8217;s hitting spots, he&#8217;s really tough. If he&#8217;s not, it can lead to some long innings.</p>
<p>Axford is almost certainly going to be serving as Team Canada&#8217;s closer, having also filled the role in the previous WBC in 2013.</p>
<p><strong><b>Relief Pitcher – RH – Jim Henderson – 34 Years Old – New York Mets (MLB)</b></strong></p>
<p>After bursting onto the scene in 2012-2013, and even taking the closer role away from Axfrod in Milwaukee, Henderson hit a wall in 2014. After a rough start to the year that saw him allow ten runs in 11 1/3 innings, Henderson went down for the season with a shoulder injury that would eventually require surgery.</p>
<p>After spending much of 2015 rehabbing in the minors, he found himself back in the big leagues in 2016 with the Mets. He wasn&#8217;t throwing quite as hard (averaging 94 mph down from 95-96 pre-injury), but he did manage to strike out 40 batters in 35 innings. His fastball/slider combination leads to a lot of swings and misses, and he throws enough strikes, but the issue is that the ball has a tendency to leave the yard. Even before his injury in 2014, Henderson was a bit homer prone. That went to the extreme last year, as he gave up seven big flies in those 35 innings.</p>
<p>Henderson is going to serve as Team Canada&#8217;s setup man, so hopefully he can keep the ball in the ballpark.</p>
<p><strong><b>Relief Pitcher – RH – Scott Mathieson – 33 Years Old – Yomiuri Giants (NPB)</b></strong></p>
<p>Most people probably remember Mathieson as the big armed reliever with the Phillies who just couldn&#8217;t quite get MLB hitters out (if they remember him at all). He never could quite figure things out over here, but it seems he was just pitching on the wrong continent.</p>
<p>Following the 2011 season Mathieson headed to Japan to join the Yomiuri Giants. All he has done since is become a lights out relief pitcher. In the last five seasons pitching in the NPB, Mathieson has put up a 2.32 ERA with 353 strikeouts and just 95 walks in 303 2/3 innings out of the pen.</p>
<p>Japanese ball is obviously quite different from the major leagues, but if he can bring some of that success to this WBC squad, he could big a big boost to this bullpen.</p>
<p><strong><b>Relief Pitcher – LH – Adam Loewen – 33 Years Old – Arizona Diamondbacks (AAA)</b></strong></p>
<p>Adam Loewen has had a very fascinating career. It began by being the highest ever Canadian draft pick (fourth overall in 2002) and rocketing through the minor leagues to debut for the Orioles in 2006. Unfortunately, he then suffered a string of arm injuries, and after nearly three lost seasons attempting to rehab, he decided to transition to the outfield. After just two seasons in the minor leagues, Loewen made a return to the major leagues with the Blue Jays in 2011, but only lasted just 14 games before returning back to the minors.</p>
<p>I don’t think that this achievement can be overstated. I believe Loewen is only the 6<sup>th</sup> player since integration who has made it to the majors both as a pitcher and position player. This needs to be celebrated; the achievement is absolutely astounding.</p>
<p>By 2014 he had abandoned his attempt to be a hitter and found himself back on the mound as a reliever. He has pitched in the major leagues in both 2015 and 2016, although he’s been quite poor.</p>
<p>The exciting aspect of Loewen’s presence on Team Canada is the possibility that he plays both ways. Given the weakness that the Canadian team has in the outfield (beyond Pompey &amp; O’Neill), I think it would be a good idea for him to start in left field, and then be ready to come in and relieve. This would give a creative manager numerous tactical options including the famed <a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/sweetspot/post/_/id/485/more-on-the-waxahachie-swap" target="_blank">Waxahachie Swap</a>. Unfortunately Canada is still managed by Ernie Whitt, so the chances of creativity are quite low.</p>
<p><strong><b>Relief Pitcher – RH – Dustin Molleken – 32 Years Old – Detroit Tigers (AAA)</b></strong></p>
<p>Molleken is your basic mediocre, journeyman reliever with a mid 90s fastball. He has had just enough minor league success to get a cup of coffee in the big leagues in 2016, but at 31 years old, there wasn&#8217;t much left in the way of projection. He doesn&#8217;t have the big time swing and miss stuff to succeed with his dip in command the last few years (walk rate of 4.5/9), so he&#8217;s probably stuck on the fringes of the MLB.</p>
<p>Molleken&#8217;s value to Team Canada is that he can go multiple innings at a time if needed, having served in a swing role through much of his minor league career.</p>
<p><strong><b>Relief Pitcher – RH – Kevin Chapman – 29 Years Old – Houston Astros (AAA)</b></strong></p>
<p>If I’m being honest, I’m baffled by Kevin Chapman’s presence on this roster. Unlike many of the players whose performance &amp; promise have been the reasons for my confusion, in Chapman’s case it’s his eligibility that’s confusing. Chapman was born in Florida, attended high school in Florida, and then attended college at the University of Florida. I’m assuming that Chapman’s eligibility, like Freddie Freeman, is tied to his parents, but unlike Freeman I can’t find a single media story clarifying his situation.</p>
<p>In terms of on-field performance, I have to largely feign ignorance. I’m generally not one to pay attention to fringe Astros bullpen prospects, and without knowing the Canadian connection I’ve had no need to pay any closer attention. Sorry, I wish I could be more helpful.</p>
<p>I’ve put some feelers out to Astros beat reporters hoping to clarify the situation, and will hopefully be able to update this space once I hear back.</p>
<p><strong><b>Relief Pitcher – RH – Rowan Wick – 24 Years Old – St Louis Cardinals (AAA)</b></strong></p>
<p>Much like Loewen, Rowan Wick is a former outfielder transitioning to the mound. He had shown enough promise as a batter to be a ninth round pick back in 2012, and early on in his minor league career Wick rewarded the Cardinals faith in him as he hit 31 HRs in his first 600 minor league at bats. However, his arrival in the Midwest League was a rude awakening for the young Canadian. His strikeout rate went through the roof, and even when he made contact his extra base power seemingly evaporated.</p>
<p>Seeing the writing on the wall in the middle of the 2015 season, Wick decided to transition to the mound. In the year and a half since, he has rocketed through the minor leagues, reaching Double A after just 26 innings while striking out more than a quarter of the batters he’s faced.</p>
<p>On a Canadian team overflowing with known (and largely boring) commodities, a wildcard like Wick is someone worth paying attention to.</p>
<p><strong><b>Relief Pitcher – RH – Eric Gagne – 41 Years Old – Free Agent</b></strong></p>
<p>We start and end this list with names nobody would have expected to see on a World Baseball Classic roster.</p>
<p>It might surprise you to learn that Eric Gagne is only 41 years old, as he hasn&#8217;t pitched in the major leagues since 2008. It&#8217;s not like he&#8217;s been tearing up the indy ball scene since then either, having thrown just 9 1/3 innings, all in the last two years.</p>
<p>Once upon a time, Gagne looked like he was going to be the next big thing in baseball. From 2002-2004, he posted a 1.79 ERA, converted a major league record shattering 84 consecutive save opportunities, won a Cy Young Award, and put up a K/9 of 13.3. He was simply dominant.</p>
<p>Unfortunately, his shoulder blew up in 2005, and he was out of baseball completely after the 2008 season at age 32.</p>
<p>Given all of that, most people probably view Gagne&#8217;s inclusion on the roster as something of a novelty, but Greg Hamilton (director of Team Canada) has said that Gagne, like Dempster, has been training for a very long time to be ready to contribute in this tournament. Heck, he&#8217;s even <a href="http://www.cbssports.com/mlb/news/believe-it-or-not-41-year-old-reliever-eric-gagne-is-considering-an-mlb-comeback/" target="_blank">considering making a big league comeback</a>.</p>
<p>On a roster devoid of talent worth watching, seeing what the former relief ace has left is worth tuning in for.<br />
&nbsp;<br />
That brings us to the end of Team Canada&#8217;s World Baseball classic preview. It&#8217;s going to be a serious uphill battle for the team, as even Colombia could provide a major test if they decide to throw one of Jose Quintana or Julio Teheran. Everything will need to break right for this club to advance beyond the round robin, and I wouldn&#8217;t bet on that happening.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © John Hefti-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>WBC Preview: Team Canada Hitters</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/15/wbc-preview-team-canada-hitters/</link>
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		<pubDate>Wed, 15 Feb 2017 15:51:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8993</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Now that I fully depressed every reader with yesterday&#8217;s piece on the direction Canada chose to take with this roster, here is a preview of the position players who actually made the team. Some of them might even be exciting! Catcher – George Kottaras – 34 – Free Agent 2017 PECOTA &#8211; .200/.327/.365 &#8211; .251 TAv [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Now that I fully depressed every reader with <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/14/wbc-preview-team-canada-a-club-without-a-purpose/" title="WBC Preview: Team Canada – A Club Without a Purpose" target="_blank">yesterday&#8217;s piece on the direction Canada chose</a> to take with this roster, here is a preview of the position players who actually made the team. Some of them might even be exciting!</p>
<p><b>Catcher – George Kottaras – 34 – Free Agent<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; .200/.327/.365 &#8211; .251 TAv &#8211; -0.4 WARP</b></p>
<p>George Kottaras is my favourite baseball player, so I’m thrilled to get one another opportunity to see him in anything resembling the spotlight. There isn’t a player over the past decade with a more defined set of skills and weaknesses. He is a poor defensive catcher, and he makes next to no contact, however he combines those massive black marks with an elite walk rate and isolated power. For near a decade now I’ve thought his left handed skill set made the perfect prototype for a backup catcher, but even during his prime he just was never able to stick in that role.</p>
<p>By 2017, Kottaras is now far from his prime. He hasn’t even gotten a cup of coffee in the major leagues since 2014, and he spent the 2016 bouncing between the Giants and the Braves AAA squads. He heads into the World Baseball Classic unsigned for the 2017 season and it’s conceivable he could be looking to turn heads and earn himself a minor league deal for the upcoming season.</p>
<p>As a catcher, especially one who’s left handed, Kottaras can essentially continue playing baseball as along as he wants to, and honestly, look at that PECOTA projection. You can’t tell me that’s any worse production than the Blue Jays have gotten from Josh Thole these past couple seasons. And from the left side no less! I still think George can play, and given the lifespan of catchers he’ll essentially have a career as a minor league catcher as long as he wants one.</p>
<p>George is great, everyone should appreciate him more.</p>
<p><b>Catcher – Kellin Deglan – 25 – Texas Rangers (Double A)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; .196/.249/.353 &#8211; .207 TAv &#8211; -1.1 WARP</b></p>
<p>Deglan was selected in the first round of the 2010 draft, though for a well under slot contract. As a high school catcher (out of the Langley Blaze program) it’s unsurprising that he has moved slowly through the minor leagues, moving roughly a level every two years. However, what is more disappointing is how his bat has failed to developed.</p>
<p>Deglan struggles to make contact on a consistent enough basis to allow his power to play through; 2016 was his first full season at the Double A level and he struggled mightily, hitting below the Mendoza line and striking out more than 100 times in less than 300 plate appearances.</p>
<p>Deglan still has a very strong defensive reputation, and that paired with his ability to hit from the left side makes him seem like an ideal backup catcher. However after seven seasons in the minor leagues it seems very doubtful that Deglan’s bat will ever develop enough for that to happen. He will likely be ticketed back to Double A Frisco</p>
<p><b>First Baseman &#8211; Freddie Freeman – 27 – Atlanta Braves<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; .282/.374/.481 – 3.5 WARP</b></p>
<p>Freddie Freeman! Holy crap! He’s not actually Canadian &#8211; he was born born and raised in Orange County, California &#8211; but both his parents were Canadian, so he qualifies! Not only does he qualify, he passionately wants to play for Canada. I legitimately teared up reading <a href="https://twitter.com/FreddieFreeman5/status/829502282060414977" target="_blank">the story that he shared via Twitter</a> after being named to the team last week.</p>
<p>If you are reading this website, you know who Freddie Freeman is. Simply put, he is a superstar. Had he not spent last season toiling away on the basement dwelling Braves, he would’ve had a strong case to make for the National League MVP award.</p>
<p>When Canadian baseball fans heard that Joey Votto was going to be taking a pass on this year’s World Baseball Classic, it looked like it would be a massive blow. With Freeman now emerging, Baseball Canada has managed to replace Votto with one of the five people on earth who could conceivably be an upgrade at first base. Given the weakness of the Canadian roster, Freeman will be leaned on as heavily as probably any other player in the tournament.</p>
<p>He is the only hitter on the Canadian roster that I expect to be in the major leagues on opening day, so Baseball Canada welcomes you with open arms, Mr. Freeman.</p>
<p><b>First Baseman – Justin Morneau – 36 – Free Agent<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; .260/.319/.415 &#8211; .255 TAv – 0.3 WARP</b></p>
<p>As a youngster growing up in New Westminster, British Columbia, I played baseball as a youth at the Moody Park baseball diamond. It’s no longer possible to play baseball at “the Moody Park baseball diamond” because that park is now rightfully “Justin Morneau Field.” Although Morneau has not announced his retirement, there is a strong possibility that the 2017 World Baseball Classic is the last opportunity that Canadian baseball fans will have to pay homage to the player that I believe to be the fourth best Canadian baseball player of all time, after Hall of Famer Ferguson Jenkins, deserved Hall of Famer Larry Walker, and future Hall of Famer (?) Joey Votto.</p>
<p>Justin Morneau arrived as a meaningful big leaguer in his age 25 season, when he won the American League MVP (at a time when three of the four major sports MVPs were Canadian), and for a five year span he was as good as any first baseman not named Albert Pujols.</p>
<p>Unfortunately in my mind, Morneau’s career will always have a twinge of sadness to it. He remains a tremendous “What-If” because as many of us remember, his career was derailed by chronic concussions stemming from an incident at second base with former Blue Jay John MacDonald in 2010. Up to that point, Morneau had been on his way to the best season of his career at age 29 and unfortunately since that injury he has never really been the same.</p>
<p>Happily he has been able to return and has managed to have a somewhat successful second act of his career, albeit as a journeyman. Morneau struggled last season as a part time player on a poor White Sox team and has not signed a contract with any team for even an invitation to spring training thus far. While it’s still a possibility that Morneau could catch on, I’m somewhat doubtful.</p>
<p>While it is incredibly unfortunate that Joey Votto is taking a pass on the tournament, I think a silver lining can be seen in the situation. Had Votto been on the team, the first base and designated hitter positions certainly would’ve been occupied by himself and Freddie Freeman, which would’ve relegated Morneau into a pinch hitting role. As it stands now, Morneau should be the team’s starting designated hitter and likely bat cleanup. This will afford Canadian fans ample opportunities to show our appreciation for Morneau’s spectacular career, but also hopefully give Morneau enough plate appearances to have a memorable final moment at the plate.</p>
<p>Here’s to you, Justin Morneau. You were great.</p>
<p><b>First Baseman – Josh Naylor – 20 – San Diego Padres (High A)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; .233/.263/.379 &#8211; .221 TAv – -1.1 WARP</b></p>
<p>When Josh Naylor was selected with the 12th overall pick of the 2015 MLB Draft, he became the highest Canadian hitter ever selected and the third highest picked ever (now fourth after Cal Quantrill). However, even at the time his selection was seen as somewhat of an overdraft, especially given his lack of flexibility as an offense only first baseman. Unfortunately for Naylor, his time as a professional has done his prospect status no favours.</p>
<p>While he has shown some promise on the field featuring emerging raw power and a surprising 11 stolen bases, off the field he was in a <a href="https://twitter.com/keithlaw/status/740277673658855424" target="_blank">fairly ugly off field “prank”</a> which involved his unwilling teammate being cut by a knife, and requiring surgery.</p>
<p>It was then incredibly unsurprising when the Marlins seemingly sold low on Naylor, and traded him in a deadline deal with the Padres for injured starter Andrew Cashner.</p>
<p>I think the hope with Naylor is that in a new organization he will be given a fresh start, and with the prodigious power that could emerge from his bat that he is still a legitimate prospect. However, and to speak frankly, I’m not especially pleased that a player with a chequered off-field history has been given what seems to be one of the few developmental slots on the roster.</p>
<p>With Freeman &amp; Morneau ahead of Naylor on the roster it seems doubtful that he has a path to playing time, so I would much rather have seen this roster spot be given to either one of Canada’s young raw outfielders in Demi Orimoloye, or Gareth Morgan, or carried a third catcher in last year’s first round pick Andy Yerzy. That being said, I think we can look forward to Naylor’s getting a few pinch hit opportunities late in games, and who knows, he might run into a fastball.</p>
<p><b> Second Baseman – Pete Orr – 36 – Free Agent<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; . /./. &#8211; . TAv – . WARP</b></p>
<p>Over the course of his 16 year career, Pete Orr managed to play over 700 major league games. In his prime he topped out as a replacement level backup second baseman you would’ve had no problem going into a season as the number three second baseman on your depth chart. Even then, he was never even a very good hitter at the Triple A level, topping out at around a .750 OPS in the minor leagues.</p>
<p>That was a decade ago. Orr hasn’t played a major league game since getting into 15 with the Phillies back in 2013, and last season he didn’t play baseball at any level, and I had assumed he had retired. If Orr’s role on this team projected to be anything more than veteran leader and backup, I don’t think I’d have a major issue with his presence. He is a veteran of the program, who is deserving of that role. However, due to the retirement of Taylor Green prior to 2016 and Brett Lawrie missing the tournament, it currently appears that Pete Orr will enter the tournament as the starting second baseman.</p>
<p>No offense to Orr, but I’d severely hoped that Baseball Canada could do better than this.</p>
<p><b> Shortstop – Daniel Pinero – 23 – Detroit Tigers (Low A)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; .210/.279/.338 &#8211; .215 TAv – -0.3 WARP</b></p>
<p>While most will focus on the loss of Joey Votto or Russell Martin from the Canadian roster, it’s quite possible that the biggest loss the Canadian roster suffered from what one would’ve projected over the offseason is that of Sean Jamieson, a shortstop in Triple A and on the Diamondbacks 40 man roster.</p>
<p>Jamieson doesn’t have tremendous upside, but he is campaigning to become just the second Canadian shortstop to play in the big leagues since Dave McKay retired in the early 1980s. Unfortunately for Baseball Canada, offseason shoulder surgery has rendered Jamieson unable to compete, so as a result the job will likely be turned over to 23 year old, 2016 ninth round draft pick Daniel Pinero.</p>
<p>Pinero is actually quite an exciting prospect, coming off an incredibly distinguished at the University of Virginia and winning a National Championship as a sophomore in 2015. He gargantuan for the position, officially listed at 6’5” 210 lbs, which immediately leads me to believe he will not be a shortstop long term. He would be the tallest shortstop in major league history were he to make it.</p>
<p>That being said, by the low bar generally set by Canadian shortstops, and frankly by the rest of this roster, Pinero is someone that I’m actually quite excited to get a chance to see. In his half season debut after being drafted last season he held his own in the Low-A New York Penn league, posting a .371 on base percentage and walking almost as much as he struck out.</p>
<p>On a Canadian team that will probably struggle to win games, these are the type of players that I want to be seeing getting an opportunity.</p>
<p><b>Shortstop – Jonathan Malo – 33 – Les Capitales de Quebec (Can Am League)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; . /./.- . TAv – . WARP</b></p>
<p>¯\_(ツ)_/¯</p>
<p><b> Third Baseman – Eric Wood – 24 – Pittsburgh Pirates (Double A)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; .228/.297/.371 &#8211; .231 TAv – -0.3 WARP</b></p>
<p>After being a sixth round draft pick in 2012, Eric Wood has steadily marched through the Pirates system as a relatively low upside third base prospect. Last season, his second in Double A, the doubles power which he’d always possessed in his bat turned into home runs, as he doubled his career total with a total of 16 on the season.</p>
<p>With only the troubled Jung-Ho Kang and David Freese ahead of him on the Pirates depth chart, I think it is quite possible that Wood has a path to big league playing time should he produce in Triple-A.</p>
<p>On this Canadian team, Wood’s right handed bat will help provide balance to a lineup which will lean to the left as it always does.</p>
<p><b>Right Field – Tyler O’Neil – 22 – Seattle Mariners (Double A)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; .235/.299/.461 &#8211; .262 TAv – 0</b>.4 WARP</p>
<p>Finally, at long last we get to a player who, without reservations, we can get legitimately excited about getting the opportunity to see. Baseball Prospectus just named O’Neill as the Mariners #1 prospect and the #53 prospect in all of baseball, and I believe he has a very real chance to be the next great Canadian player.</p>
<p>O’Neill has prodigious power; his 56 home runs the past two seasons have been among the leaders in all the minor leagues. However along with all those tantalizing home runs has come a penchant to swing and miss.</p>
<p>There are very few major leaguers who were ever able to have success while striking out more than a quarter of the time like O’Neill has been doing in the minor leagues. O’Neill is either one of those incredibly rare players, or more likely he will have to improve his contact rate in order to achieve success at the major league level.</p>
<p>I hope to write more about O’Neill in the leadup to the tournament, but I believe that the 2017 World Baseball Classic is a massive opportunity for the young man to put his name on the map across this country. If I was drawing up this lineup, he would play every game in right field and ideally bat right behind Freeman and Morneau.</p>
<p>It is still possible this could be too early for O’Neill. He’s just 23 years old and likely headed to Triple A to start the season. I’m hoping a hot WBC can help carry O’Neill onto the fast track to Seattle before the All-Star break. With Shohei Otani now pulled out of the tournament, personally there isn’t a player I’m more excited to see than Tyler O’Neill.</p>
<p><b> Center Field – Dalton Pompey – 23 – Toronto Blue Jays (Triple A)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; .262/.336/.404 &#8211; .258 TAv – 0.5 WARP</b></p>
<p>I believe that the strange path his career has taken has done significant damage to people’s perception of where Dalton Pompey is as a baseball player. Had he not broken camp with the Blue Jays in 2015 and proceed to flop and be demoted after a poor April, Pompey would still be perceived much more as the 23 year old, toolsy, high upside center fielder he is, rather than the busted prospect how many are now viewing him.</p>
<p>There’s no doubt that the past two seasons have been rough ones for Pompey, both due to performance on the field and various injuries which have kept him from playing at full strength. I still believe that if given the opportunity Pompey could be a starting calibre center fielder (or potentially in left as well). Given how reluctant the Blue Jays appear to be to add any competition to their left field mix, Pompey’s path to playing time is fairly easy to see and I still have hope.</p>
<p>On this Canadian team, Pompey will be in a featured role. He will start every game in center and presumably lead off as well. Pompey is one of the more interesting Canadian players to watch, especially for Blue Jays fans.</p>
<p><b>Outfield – Jamie Romak – 31 – San Diego Padres (Triple A)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; ././. &#8211; . TAv – . WARP</b></p>
<p>Jamie Romak returns Stateside after a short-lived stay with the Yokohama Bay Stars in 2016. He only managed to get into 30 games with the Bay Stars last season, which was very surprising given that Romak was coming off multiple seasons as a superstar slugger at the Triple A level; in 2015 Romak led the entire Pacific Coast League in home runs with 27 while playing at altitude in Reno. Over the course of his career, Romak has played more than 100 games at both corner infield spots, and left and right field. While he is probably a fringe major league talent, Romak has landed in an organization which might need just that, the Padres.</p>
<p>For team Canada, Romak’s defensive versatility gives the team a good amount of flexibility. He could start games at third base over Eric Wood, but I expect him to get the starting nod in left field. His best skill is hitting lefthanded pitching, so ideally he would fall into a platoon. On this team, given their lack of talent, Romak will likely have to face right handed pitching as well.</p>
<p><b> Outfield – Michael Crouse – 25 – New Britain Bees (Atlantic League)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; ././. &#8211; . TAv – . WARP</b></p>
<p>Once upon a time, Michael Crouse was a Blue Jays minor leaguer who I hesitate to ever say was a legitimate prospect. Crouse was drafted out of high school in the 16th round of 2008 draft and through the seven years he spent in the Blue Jays system, he had all of one promising offensive season (2011 in Lansing).</p>
<p>Crouse was released by the Blue Jays after a disappointing 2014 season in Double A New Hampshire, and after taking the 2015 season off, he returned to the independent leagues in 2016. I haven’t seen any news over the offseason that Crouse has signed, so in all likelihood he will return to the independent leagues after this tournament.</p>
<p><b> Outfield – Rene Tosoni – 30 – Sugar Land Skeeters (Atlantic League)<br />
2017 PECOTA &#8211; ././. &#8211; . TAv – . WARP</b></p>
<p>Do you remember Rene Tosoni? He played 60 games of well-below replacement outfield for the Minnesota Twins all the way back in 2011, and hasn’t played affiliated baseball since 2013. I really didn’t think I’d need to type Rene Tosoni’s name again, but this is where we are.</p>
<p>That brings us to the end of the 13 position players that have been named to Canada’s roster. It does stand out that unlike the other nations involved in the tournament, who have all named a roster of more than 30 players, Canada has only named a 28 player roster, so it is still possible that more players could still be added before the tournament begins.</p>
<p>One can only hope.</p>
<p><i>Check back in later in the week when Ewan will preview the Team Canada pitching staff. </p>
<p>Lead Photo: © Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
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		<title>WBC Preview: Team Canada &#8211; A Club Without a Purpose</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/14/wbc-preview-team-canada-a-club-without-a-purpose/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/02/14/wbc-preview-team-canada-a-club-without-a-purpose/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 14 Feb 2017 15:08:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
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		<category><![CDATA[World Baseball Classic]]></category>

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		<description><![CDATA[I love Baseball Canada. I believe I am one of Baseball Canada’s biggest fans. If you slap a Canadian jersey on a team, I will root as hard for those clubs to win as one can imagine. I also try to follow Canadian baseball players very closely; for the past five years I’ve had a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I love Baseball Canada. I believe I am one of Baseball Canada’s biggest fans. If you slap a Canadian jersey on a team, I will root as hard for those clubs to win as one can imagine. I also try to follow Canadian baseball players very closely; for the past five years I’ve had a running spreadsheet of all the Canadians playing in affiliated baseball, which has gotten more and more challenging as Canadian baseball has continued to grow.</p>
<p>The past two drafts have shown the strength of Canadian baseball not only by having elite talent taken in the top 15 (<strong>Cal Quantrill</strong> in 2016, and <strong>Josh Naylor</strong> in 2015), but also having the depth to have nine players selected in the top ten rounds of each of the 2015 and 2016 drafts. As such, I want to be clear that the criticism that is to come is in no way an indictment of the talent in Canadian baseball, but rather solely aimed at the composition of this year’s World Baseball Classic team.</p>
<p>The first question that I think needs to be asked before analyzing the roster is to ask “What is the objective of the <strong>World Baseball Classic</strong>?”</p>
<p>In Canada, I’d argue that the World Baseball Classic could provide many different purposes.</p>
<p>• <b>Objective 1 </b>– Canada could put their absolute best foot forward, really put an emphasis on representing their country, and put together a team that looks something like the best 25 Canadian baseball players.</p>
<p>If Canada could actually do this, I think they would be a very live underdog in this tournament, and there are scenarios where I could see them even winning the tournament, which would be amazing.</p>
<p>For various reasons this largely wasn’t going to be possible in 2017. Catcher <strong>Russell Martin</strong> is unavailable due to insurance concerns, first baseman <strong>Joey Votto</strong> was taking a pass to focus on the season, shortstop <strong>Sean Jamieson</strong> was out with shoulder surgery, <strong>Michael Saunders</strong> was a free agent &#8211; and probably shouldn’t risk injury anyway, and <strong>Brett Lawrie</strong> isn’t playing because, well, I’m totally not sure why Brett Lawrie isn’t playing.</p>
<p>Since this option wasn’t a realistic possibility, I believe that Baseball Canada should’ve shifted fully towards&#8230;</p>
<p>• <b>Objective 2</b> – Canada should put an emphasis on youth development. Take the five or six major league calibre players available to this team, and fill around with nothing but young, recently drafted players or high ceiling prospects.</p>
<p>From a player and program development standpoint, you give a young player a platform to be seen across the country and work against the World&#8217;s best. From an entertainment aspect, the viewer gets to watch a young, exciting team and hopefully dream towards the future.</p>
<p>The offensive half of this roster fails to do that spectacularly.</p>
<p>While the team does have some youth in Mariners top prospect outfielder <strong>Tyler O’Neill</strong> &amp; Padres first baseman <strong>Josh Naylor</strong>, in my opinion it is sorely missing Blue Jays third base wunderkind <strong>Vladimir Guerrero Jr,</strong> and Diamondbacks first round catcher <strong>Andrew Yerzy</strong>.</p>
<p>This doesn’t just apply to the top prospects listed above; there have been a total of 26 Canadians taken in the first ten rounds of the past four MLB drafts, and there are only three represented on this year’s squad.</p>
<p>Instead what we have been given is a roster that includes three players (<strong>Michael Crouse</strong>, <strong>Jonathan Malo</strong>, &amp; <strong>Rene Tosoni</strong>) who last played baseball in the independent leagues, one player who seemingly retired last year (<strong>Pete Orr</strong>), and two current free agents whose careers could be at an end (<strong>George Kottaras</strong> and <strong>Justin Morneau</strong>).</p>
<p>If one wasn’t paying close attention, you could hear that the team was missing their starting shortstop (Jamieson) and second baseman (Lawrie), and think they had no other options but to turn to minor league veteran Jonathan Malo at short and Pete Orr at second base.</p>
<p>However, in this case Canada should be looking to a player like <strong>Charles LeBlanc</strong>, who the Tigers drafted in the fourth round last year, and who put up at least somewhat respectable numbers in his professional debut. I ask you the reader, who would you rather watch, 20 year old Charles LeBlanc, or 36 year old retired Pete Orr?</p>
<p>Had that choice been made only once or twice on the roster, it would be understandable, but when you turn to the outfield, you are met with a pair of indy leaguers again in Crouse and veteran Tosoni. Both of those players have been away from affiliated baseball long enough that it is impossible for me to get PECOTA projections for them to accompany the full hitter preview coming tomorrow. On the other hand, there are six Canadian outfielders who were drafted in the past three drafts, and I refuse to believe that one of <strong>Gareth Morgan,</strong> <strong>Demi Orimoloye</strong>, or <strong>Miles Gordon</strong> isn’t a better use of everyone’s time on the roster than a 31 year old Tosoni. Call me crazy.</p>
<p>In the case of many of the pitchers (who will be broken down at the end of the week), I understand why they might decline to participate in an event like the World Baseball Classic for fear of injury due to unusual workloads, however unless reported otherwise, I can’t understand position players having the same outlook. Thus, I have to assume that this is what Baseball Canada thinks is the best they can put forward and frankly, that’s incredibly disappointing.</p>
<p><em>Look for a full break down of Team Canada&#8217;s hitters on Wednesday, with the pitcher preview coming later in the week. </em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: © Tom Szczerbowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Ross Atkins Speaks: Change to Gibbons Contract, Pitching, Pompey, and More</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/21/ross-atkins-interview-john-gibbons-dalton-pompey-pitching/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/21/ross-atkins-interview-john-gibbons-dalton-pompey-pitching/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 21 Mar 2016 15:40:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
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		<description><![CDATA[Sunday night, Sirius XM’s MLB Network’s Spring Training Tour reached Dunedin and the Blue Jays camp. As part of that program MLB Network hosts Todd Hollandsworth &#38; Steve Phillips interviewed new Toronto GM, Ross Atkins. You can listen to the Gibbons portion of the audio here, but I&#8217;ve pulled a few extra notable quotes to come out [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sunday night, Sirius XM’s MLB Network’s Spring Training Tour reached Dunedin and the Blue Jays camp. As part of that program MLB Network hosts Todd Hollandsworth &amp; Steve Phillips interviewed new Toronto GM, Ross Atkins. You can listen to the <a href="https://soundcloud.com/mlbnetworkradio/ross-atkins-tor-gm-weve-taken-the-rolling-year-out-of-john-gibbons-contract" target="_blank">Gibbons portion of the audio here</a>, but I&#8217;ve pulled a few extra notable quotes to come out of the short, five minute interview.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong><em>Steve Phillips &#8211; </em></strong><em>In John Gibbons, you have a manager that you and Mark inherited. A guy that we both know; I go back to the Mets organization with Gibby, and he’s as easy a guy to get along with as there is, and you guys are too, so it’s a nice fit in that way. But philosophically his deal in the past used to be the rolling year, where he’d never be a lame duck. Is that structure something that is part of your thought process going forward, or is it something that you’ll address things as time goes on?</em></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong><em>Ross Atkins –</em></strong><em> No, we’ve already addressed that. That’s already come out of his contract. That’s the short answer, but not taking anything away from what it was. I think every situation is different. Gibby has been unbelievable, I love being around him, I can see why players trust and respect him. He’s an extremely consistent human being, with great values and morals. And really has set a nice tone here. He’s obviously a good decision maker, and handles himself great in pressure situations.</em></li>
</ul>
<p>This was easily the most interesting subject touched upon in the entire interview. Gibbons thus has 2 seasons left on his contract, 2016 and 2017, which was picked up on January 1st. Starting next January 1st, Gibbons won&#8217;t have the rolling option available in his contract.</p>
<p>Once the Gibbons talk was exhausted, Hollandsworth moved the discussion to how to better the team on the field:</p>
<ul>
<li><strong><em>Todd Hollandsworth &#8211; </em></strong><em>In spring training, if we wanted to accomplish THIS, what would that be, and is there some tweaking that maybe needs to happen.</em></li>
</ul>
<ul>
<li><strong><em>Atkins &#8211; </em></strong><em>Yeah, we wanted to make sure we had enough depth for our pitching. I think throughout the offseason the acquisitions that Mark and Tony made before I was here in Happ, &amp; Estrada the trade for Chavez, and then adding some more pieces to that, the trade for Storen, the acquisition of Gavin Floyd and some of the other minor league free agents. We feel good about our starting options. We feel good about the depth of our bullpen. We need to continue to be creative, to not stop thinking that that’s going to be OK for the rest of the year. </em><em>It’s not too often you go through the season with five starters. I think the last time that happened was five years ago. We’re going to need depth and that was our goal through the off-season and into spring training. </em><em>I will say, what I’ve been really encouraged by is the depth in the minor leagues. I have really been impressed with 1) that there is some talent, but even more impressed with how they carried themselves here in the major league environment. From Conner Greene &amp; Reid-Foley (who wasn’t here), guys like Anthony Alford &amp; Richie Urena. Wow Dalton Pompey’s gonna be a great player, there are very good pieces in this organization.</em></li>
</ul>
<p>The Blue Jays are coming off a season where they gave 10 starts to the collection of Felix Doubront, Scott Copeland, Matt Boyd &amp; Todd Redmond, where they contributed a piddling -2.1 WARP. It’s clear that pitching depth was a major area of concern for the Jays coming into this off-season. While acquisitions at the top of the roster are much more glamorous, it’s quite possible that the Jays could improve just as much by replacing the detritus on the back end of the roster with merely replacement level players.</p>
<p>Since there are so many more players available to target by taking this approach to team building, it’s much less likely that a team will wind up in a bidding war. As a result this tends to be much more economical, and given Shapiro &amp; Atkins previous tenure was with the small budget Indians, it’s hardly surprising that’s the approach they would focus most upon. So far, <a title="How the Blue Jays Finally Created a Deep Roster" href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/08/bluejays-depth-spring-training/" target="_blank">the results seem to be pretty good</a>.</p>
<ul>
<li><strong><em>Hollandsworth &#8211; </em></strong><em>Michael Saunders, it’s kind of the one spot on your team where there’s a bit of a position battle. My guess is you wanted to make sure that Saunders was completely healthy. He’s come into camp, he’s had a really strong camp offensively. Pompey’s going back to Triple A, is that for playing time?</em></li>
<li><strong><em>Atkins</em></strong><em> – Yah, I think for Dalton it’s more about foundation for him. The guys that are coming and going, the old adage you wanna get there and stay. Dalton’s probably heard that way too much. So it’s about how do you give him the best foundation to deal with the struggles of a major league season, the ups and downs. The best place for him to get that foundation is in the minor leagues not in the major leagues. Yes it is about playing time, but it’s also about he has also moved quickly, and there’s been a lot asked of him. He’s a great player, I get it. He’s gonna be special, he really is. I have a lot of confidence in saying that.  </em><em>Saunders has been awesome. Dealing with the rumours of a trade, handling the expectations of coming off of this injury. Not only has he looked good, but his commitment and his drive of &#8216;this is going to be the best trade rumour that never happened.&#8217; We’re really encouraged by him, and to think that he is just an addition to this lineup is remarkable.</em></li>
</ul>
<p>The measured approach being taken with Dalton Pompey stands directly in contrast with how the Jays threw him into the fire at the beginning of the 2015 season, and links back to the previous point I made about moral hazard. It’s interesting to see the different approaches that a front office with years of security under their belt takes, as opposed to someone like Alex Anthopoulos, who came into the 2015 season with an immense amount of pressure to perform. Rather than letting the team’s situation dictate whether Pompey would be forced into major league duty, Atkins and seems to be taking the more measured approach, and is instead letting Pompey&#8217;s performance be the deciding factor. I firmly believe that in previous years the team would&#8217;ve taken the marginal upgrade by having Pompey serve as the team&#8217;s 4th outfielder, and I believe this approach will be much more advantageous for both Pompey &amp; the club in the long term.</p>
<p>Those were the main takeaways from Atkins&#8217; discussion with Hollandsworth. It will be interesting to see how this relationship between general manager and the media evolves over time. With Alex Anthopoulos, he learned that he could say a bit more, but also ended up rounding into even more doublespeak. We&#8217;ll be watching Mr. Atkins closely.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p><em>Note: This article previously stated that John Gibbons could be a lame duck manager in 2016, depending on when the clause was removed. This has been corrected, as Gibbons&#8217; contract has been renegotiated to end after the 2017, with a slight pay bump for Gibby. The same analysis from the piece still applies to next season, which would not have been the case if the rollover option was still intact. </em></p>
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		<title>Minor League Update: Spring Training Edition</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/16/minor-league-update-spring-training-edition/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/16/minor-league-update-spring-training-edition/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 16 Mar 2016 15:53:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor League Update]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Conner Greene]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Minor Leagues]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Prospects]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=379</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[At this point in the spring, the majority of the prospects who were invited to major league camp have been sent out to join their fellow young players at the opening of minor league spring training. That makes this a nice time to take a look at just how well the prospects did in their time playing with the [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>At this point in the spring, the majority of the prospects who were invited to major league camp have been sent out to join their fellow young players at the opening of minor league spring training. That makes this a nice time to take a look at just how well the prospects did in their time playing with the big boys. It’s worth keeping in mind that spring training stats tend to be some of the most misleading statistics you will ever see. Not only are they an impossibly small sample size, but they also come against wildly different competition levels.</p>
<p>While this segment will only feature prospects during the season, for Spring Training I am also including some more veteran players who are competing for a spot on the back end of the 25-man, opening day roster.</p>
<p><strong>AJ Jimenez</strong> – C –</p>
<p>6 Games, 13 AB &#8211; .455/.538/.727 – 1 HR, 0 SB, 2 BB, 1 K</p>
<p>In the two years since Jimenez returned from his Tommy John surgery, his prospect stock has plummeted to the point where I was surprised that he remained on the 40 man roster over the winter. However, Jimenez picked the exact right time to see a return of the promising bat that scouts once saw in him. With Dioner Navarro leaving this offseason via free agency, and Josh Thole slotted into the backup catcher role, the time is now for Jimenez to make a push for a major league role. The home run is easily the most exciting aspect of Jimenez performance thus far in spring training. Yes, it may have come against Orioles minor leaguer Parker Bridwell, but when you are a player who has only hit nine home runs in the last four years combined, beggars can’t be choosers.</p>
<p>With his defensive reputation, including a very strong throwing arm, Jimenez won’t need to post gaudy offensive numbers to be a contributor at the major league level. Couple that with the likes of Thole ahead of him on the depth chart, there is certainly a chance that if Jimenez continues to produce once the minor league season gets started that we could get a chance to see him at some point in 2016. He&#8217;s out of options, but it&#8217;s hard to see him not clearing waivers given his lack of playing time the last few years.</p>
<p><strong>Darrell Ceciliani</strong> – CF –</p>
<p>10 Games, 18 AB &#8211; .444/.565/.778 – 1 HR, 3 2B, 0 SB, 4 BB, 4 K</p>
<p>Coming into the spring, it was assumed that Dalton Pompey would be sent back to Triple A for a little bit more seasoning, so the Jays had an open slot for their fourth outfielder role. The competition was supposed to feature the likes of Ezequiel Carrera, Junior Lake, or Domonic Brown, however, the overlooked man in this competition could wind up being Darrell Ceciliani, whom the Jays acquired via trade from the Mets (for cash) in early February.</p>
<p>In the first two weeks of spring training, Ceciliani has been the Jays best hitter, and certainly requires a longer look as the team progresses closer to opening day. It&#8217;s honestly quite puzzling why the Mets were willing to dump Ceciliani for just cash. While he was unproductive in his first 39 games in the big leagues, Ceciliani destroyed the PCL last season to the tune of a .345/.398/.581 slash line. While those numbers are certainly inflated by playing his home games in Las Vegas, they still pop off the page. When you couple that stat line, with a player entering his prime at the age of 26, and most importantly still having minor league options remaining, he seems like a player most teams would like to keep.</p>
<p>I try as little as possible to draw conclusions from spring training stats, but given my lack of faith in many of the players with whom Ceciliani is competing, I think there is least a non-zero chance that he could break camp with the big league team.</p>
<p><strong>Andy Burns</strong> &#8211; UT &#8211;</p>
<p>13 Games, 18 AB &#8211; .333/.455/.722 &#8211; 1 HR, 1 3B, 1 2B, 4 BB, 3 K</p>
<p>Along with Ceciliani, Andy Burns has been one of the Jays hottest hitters throughout the early part of spring training. Burns has seen time at 2nd base, 3rd base, and left field, and the Blue Jays seem fully committed to him developing into a utility man. What&#8217;s been one of the more impressive aspects of Burns success thus far in the spring is that he&#8217;s done most of his damage against right-handed pitching. Throughout Burns minor league career, he has been most known for punishing lefties. With Ryan Goins as the team&#8217;s starting 2nd baseman, I believe there could be a role for Burns on the major league roster. If Darwin Barney flops to start the season, and Devon Travis&#8217; return is delayed, I could see the club turning to Burns.</p>
<p><strong>Jio Mier</strong> – SS –</p>
<p>12 Games, 20 AB &#8211; .350/.350/.600 – 1 HR, 2 2B, 0 SB, 0 BB, 4 K</p>
<p>Mier, the former Astros first round pick, was acquired by the Jays via minor league free agency over the winter. Given pedigree, which albeit has faded, Mier is more intriguing than most minor league free agents.  That makes seeing these types of early positive signs something worth noticing at least. Given that Mier is already behind Troy Tulowitzki, Ryan Goins, and Darwin Barney on the depth chart, and will soon to be pushed even further down by a returning Devon Travis, it’s tough to see the path to playing time for Mr. Mier. That being said, it’s worth remembering that Jonathan Diaz saw time on the major league roster in each of the past two seasons.</p>
<p><strong>Dalton Pompey</strong> – CF –</p>
<p>10 Games, 21 AB &#8211; .190/.261/.524 – 2 HR, 1 2B, 0 SB, 2 BB, 7 K</p>
<p>Dalton Pompey is a perfect example of why Spring Training numbers just can’t be taken at face value. The only thing that is preventing Pompey’s 21 spring training plate appearances from being a complete black hole are the pair of home runs that he has slugged so far. However, it just so happens that those dingers happen to have been hit off the Athletics’ Andrew Triggs, and the Orioles’ Chris Lee. You can be excused if you’ve never heard of either of those pitchers, because neither of them has ever pitched above Double-A.</p>
<p>I had come into the spring with the hope that if things broke right for Pompey he would could win the fourth outfielder role, or even had an outside shot at even winning the starting left field job. With a slow start you’d have to imagine that scenario is out the window now, so look for Pompey to head to Buffalo once the minor league season gets started. Hopefully he will be ready to produce when called upon.</p>
<p><strong>Domonic Brown</strong> – OF –</p>
<p>8 Games, 22 AB &#8211; .182/.280/.364 – 2 3B, 0 SB, 3 BB, 3 K</p>
<p><strong>Junior Lake </strong>– OF –</p>
<p>8 Games, 22 AB &#8211; .227/.292/.364 – 0 HR, 3 2B, 1 SB, 1 BB, 4 K</p>
<p><strong>Ezequiel Carrera</strong> – OF</p>
<p>8 Games, 15 AB &#8211; .067/.222/.067 – 0 HR, 1 SB, 3 BB, 5 K</p>
<p>Carrera, Brown, and Lake are all competing for the fourth outfielder spot with Ceciliani &amp; Pompey, and none of them have done much of anything thus far into the spring. With Lake and Carrera both out of options, I had assumed that either of them would get the first opportunity, but unless they start to put up at least respectable numbers the rest of the way they are in danger of being passed over.</p>
<p>In Brown’s case, since he could be sent down to Buffalo freely, he was always facing an uphill battle to make the opening day roster. Since he provides negative defensive value, even in a corner outfield spot, he needs to show the club that they can’t afford to leave his bat down in the minors. That certainly hasn’t happened yet.</p>
<p><strong>Rowdy Tellez</strong> – 1B –</p>
<p>9 Games, 11 AB &#8211; .182/.250/.182 – 0 SB, 1 BB, 3 K</p>
<p><strong>Anthony Alford</strong> – CF –</p>
<p>11 Games, 10 AB &#8211; .100/.308/.100 – 0 SB, 3 BB, 4 K</p>
<p><strong>Richard Urena</strong> – SS –</p>
<p>8 Games, 14 AB &#8211; .214/.214/.286 – 0 HR, 1 2B, 1 SB, 0 BB, 1 K</p>
<p>Taken together, Alford, Urena, and Tellez are the Jays top 3 position player prospects. While each of them has struggled thus far, we should pay zero attention to any of these stats. None of these players is older than 21 years old, and they are facing better competition than they’ve ever seen. The main reason for inviting prospects like this to major league training camp is not to have them produce on the field, but rather to have them interact with established major league veterans, and learn from their habits. All three of these players have since been reassigned to minor league camp, and I look forward to each producing once the minor league season gets under way.</p>
<p><strong>Conner Greene – </strong>Starting Pitcher</p>
<p>2 Games, 2 IP – 0.00 ERA, 1 Hit, 3 Ks, 2 BB</p>
<p>The Jays top pitching prospect was only in major league camp for a cup of coffee, but acquitted himself quite well in the two games he in which he appeared. His first inning of work came against the Phillies, and despite walking JP Arencibia (lol), he struck out the side. While he didn’t face a major leaguer, one of his victims was Phillies top prospect Nick Williams. Greene came back a few days later, and in his lone inning against the Rays, he managed to retire major leaguers Brad Miller, Steven Souza &amp; Logan Forsythe. Soon after that game, Green was reassigned to Minor League camp, so we won’t be getting another chance to look at him until the New Hampshire Fisher Cats season gets underway in the first week of April. While this is the smallest of possible samples, there were nothing but positives to take away from Greene this spring.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Non-Roster Invites in Blue Jays Camp: The Prospects</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/12/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-prospects/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/12/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-prospects/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Sat, 12 Mar 2016 13:49:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Ewan Ross]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Uncategorized]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Andy Burns]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Anthony Alford]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Chad Girodo]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Connor Greene]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Danny Jensen]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Derrick Chung]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Dwight Smith Jr]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Jio Mier]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Matthew Dean]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Rowdy Tellez]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=77</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Every year at spring training, there there are a numbers of non-roster invitees (NRIs) that may seem surprising; some are there more as instructors and mentors while others are projects returning from injuries or just looking for another shot at the big leagues. This year the Blue Jays have 29 players in camp who aren’t on [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>Every year at spring training, there there are a numbers of non-roster invitees (NRIs) that may seem surprising; some are there more as instructors and mentors while others are projects returning from injuries or just looking for another shot at the big leagues. This year the Blue Jays have 29 players in camp who aren’t on the 40 man roster &#8211; twelve pitchers and seventeen position players. Fourteen (eight pitchers, six hitters) of these players have some major league experience while the remaining eighteen players comprising of minor league fodder mixed in with legitimate prospects.</em></p>
<p><em>BP Toronto will be breaking down these NRIs into three groups &#8211; <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/03/10/non-roster-invites-in-blue-jays-camp-the-pitchers/">veteran pitchers</a>, <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=57" target="_blank">veteran hitters</a>, and prospects &#8211; and assessing their odds of making the opening day roster.</em></p>
<p><strong>Derrick Chung – Catcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .238/.288/.323 – 2 HR, 0 SB, 16 BB, 41 K &#8211; .222 TAv, -0.8 WARP</p>
<p>As a 28-year-old who&#8217;s only played 71 games above Single A, it&#8217;s fairly safe to assume that Derrick Chung isn&#8217;t much of a prospect. While Chung has shown an excellent batting eye, his two career home runs, and sub .350 slugging percentage leaves much to be desired. Despite his struggles at the plate, Chung comes with a strong defensive reputation for both working with pitchers, and throwing out would be base stealers. This isn&#8217;t the profile of a player destined for a major league career. However, those skills usually lead to a long minor league career followed by a career in coaching.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Chung is a valuable piece for a major league club, even though he&#8217;s incredibly unlikely to don a Blue Jays uniform. His value will come via working with young pitchers as they attempt to make the critical developmental jump to AA.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p><strong>*Danny Jansen – Catcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .211/.273/.335 – 6 HR, 0 SB, 19 BB, 53 K &#8211; .221 TAv, -0.2 WARP</p>
<p>Like Chung, Jansen is a player whose primary skill is his discipline at the plate. However, unlike Chung, he has shown at least some power (5 HRs last season). More importantly, Jansen is only 20 years old. With that said, catching prospects are always the most difficult to get a handle on until they reach the upper levels&#8230;so it&#8217;s tough to predict how he will progress.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> With A.J. Jimenez having lost all of his prospect sheen, and with Max Pentecost&#8217;s status behind the plate in question, Jansen in the Jays top catching prospect. We&#8217;re at least two years away from Jansen even sniffing the big league roster, but he&#8217;s an interesting player to keep track of.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>Low A Lansing</p>
<p>While there was some promise to Jansen&#8217;s season in Lansing last year, I&#8217;d think that his .206 BA wouldn&#8217;t cut it for a promotion. He&#8217;ll probably reach High A Dunedin at some point this season, but it won&#8217;t be at the beginning.</p>
<p><strong>*Rowdy Tellez – First Baseman</strong></p>
<p><em>PECOTA Projection: </em>250 PA &#8211; .229/.279/.388 – 8 HR, 0 SB, 17 BB, 65 K &#8211; .229 TAv, -0.3 WARP</p>
<p>When Rowdy Tellez was drafted in the 30th round of the 2013 draft, he was largely seen as unsignable. That all changed when the Jays failed to sign their first round pick, Phil Bickford, and instead devoted all their excess bonus pool money to signing the power hitting first baseman. In 2015, he rocketed through the Midwest League. As well, despite battling a wrist injury, his second half promotion to the Florida State League was a massive success. With enough plate appearances, he would&#8217;ve finished second in the league in slugging percentage.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Tellez is the Blue Jays&#8217; top power prospect. With both Edwin Encarnacion and Jose Bautista being free agents at the end of the 2016 season, the club may be in need for a power bat by this time next year. With that said, it&#8217;s doubtful that Tellez will be ready that soon. It&#8217;s also still unclear if he has the ability to hit, and hit for power, at the major league level. Nevertheless, he&#8217;s one of the most intriguing prospects to track this upcoming season.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment:</em> High A Dunedin.</p>
<p>While Tellez was very successful in Dunedin last year, he only played in 35 games at that level. As a result, you&#8217;d expect the Jays to let him prove himself there over a larger sample size. However, there is a chance that they get aggressive and push Tellez up to the Fisher Cats to begin the year.</p>
<p><strong>*Matthew Dean – First Baseman</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA – .217/.257/.358 &#8211; 7 HR, 0 SB, 11 BB, 79 K &#8211; .219 TAv, -0.9 WARP</p>
<p>As a non-elite prospect who is restricted to first base, Dean is one of my least favourite type of prospects. Throughout his four year minor league career he has achieved just enough to get promoted further up the ladder, but not enough to really stand out. With that said, Dean did lead the notoriously pitcher friendly Florida State League in home runs. That&#8217;s more than enough to earn him another year of faith on the potential that he could develop into a second division starter at first base.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Dean is at least a full year away from being major league ready (if he&#8217;ll ever be). Strangely, his ability to hit both right and left handed pitchers almost equally is one of the biggest drawbacks to his big league future. If he had similar production, but did most of his damage against left handed pitching, you could see him as a platoon bench bat.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Matthew Dean will likely start the season as the Fisher Cats&#8217; staring first baseman. However, he could potentially be moved to designated hitter when Rowdy Tellez gets the call to AA.</p>
<p><strong>Andy Burns – Infielder</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .248/.297/.395 – 6 HR, 4 SB, 16 BB, 51 K &#8211; .247 TAv, 0.5 WARP</p>
<p>Burns was drafted as a shortstop in 2011, but he was quickly shifted off the position. Over the past two seasons, he has shifted into a super utility role, having played every position on the diamond except for catcher and centre field. He’s unlikely to ever be an impact defender at any of those positions, but that added flexibility gives him an increased chance to make the big leagues. As does his ability to consistently hit left handed pitching. In every season that he has played as a professional, Burns has posted an OPS of .800+ against southpaws. That has all the makings of a quality bench player.</p>
<p><em>How he fits:</em> Burns is a low upside prospect, but one who could still provide value to the big league club as a utility bench bat at some point in the near future. Given his success hitting versus left handed pitching it’s even possible that he could emerge as a platoon starter.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AAA Buffalo</p>
<p>Even with Devon Travis starting the season on the disabled list, Burns is still behind both Goins and Barney on the second base depth chart. He&#8217;s also behind Donaldson and Dominguez on the third base depth chart. As a result, he&#8217;ll likely spend most of the season in AAA.</p>
<p><strong>Jio Mier – Shortstop</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .209/.278/.309 – 4 HR, 3 SB, 22 BB, 61 K &#8211; .215 TAv, -0.6 WARP</p>
<p>Mier was acquired via minor league free agency this offseason. At lot of his sheen comes from the fact that he was drafted 21st overall in 2009. Despite some initial success, Mier&#8217;s career largely stalled after arriving in AA in 2013. At that point, his contact rate completely collapsed, and scouts were starting to question whether he could stick at shortstop.  Strangely, despite never hitting, the Astros yo-yo’d Mier back and forth between AAA and AA before losing him to minor league free agency past offseason.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>With Munenori Kawasaki and Jonathan Diaz leaving the organization over the offseason, Mier has replaced them on the depth chart in the middle infield. He’ll provide stability for the Bisons, and be emergency depth in case of middle infield injuries.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AAA</p>
<p>Mier will begin the year manning shortstop for the Bisons, and with Devon Travis already on the shelf, he’s probably only a single injury away from heading to Toronto.</p>
<p><strong>*Anthony Alford – Center Fielder</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .223/.304/.345 – 5 HR, 7 SB, 25 BB, 72 K &#8211; .235 TAv, -0.1 WARP</p>
<p>At this point, I think most Blue Jays fans are familiar with Alford’s story. The former football star, who put his baseball career on hold until the end of the 2014 season. In the first full season that he devoted to baseball, Alford had a bigger breakout than any prospect in the game. The most surprising aspect of Alford’s breakout was the true baseball skills he showed. It was expected that Alford had the tools to succeed, but seeing his discipline at the plate, and his efficiency in stealing bases has given me even more faith that he will develop into the star he seems destined to become.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>Alford fits as the top prospect in the Blue Jays newly depleted minor league system. If things go especially well this upcoming year, it’s possible that we could see Alford for a cameo in September. However, it’s more likely that the Jays hold him down to preserve his service time.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Considering Alford played 57 games in Dunedin last season, it’s conceivable that the Blue Jays send him back to there to start the season. With that said, he also laid waste to the Florida State League in his cameo appearance there. As a result, I expect the Jays push him up to New Hampshire.</p>
<p><strong>*Dwight Smith Jr. – Outfielder</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 250 PA &#8211; .236/.297/.364 – 5 HR, 2 SB, 20 BB, 51 K &#8211; .238 TAv, -0.3 WARP</p>
<p>Dwight Smith Jr. is a very difficult prospect to get a handle on. He lacks any significant upside, as a likely fourth outfielder. This is largely due to the fact that he lacks a carrying tool. However, while Smith lacks the carrying tool, he also doesn’t have a real weakness either. He isn’t my favourite type of prospect, but he is one who could provide some value to the big league team.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>With Michael Saunders currently slotted in as the starting left fielder, and a collection of veteran fliers in the mix for the fourth outfield spot, I think it&#8217;s incredibly unlikely that Smith gets an opportunity at the major league level this season.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Given the struggles that Smith showed in the sound half while battling injuries, it&#8217;s difficult to justify promoting him up the ladder to AAA. As a result I’m expecting he&#8217;ll restart the season down in New Hampshire. Hopefully he can prove he’s ready for the next challenge and his stay there won’t be long.</p>
<p><strong>*Conner Greene – Starting Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 88.5 IP – 4.75 ERA, 5.04 DRA, 5.9 K/9, 3.7 BB/9</p>
<p>Connor Greene rocketed through the Jays system in 2015, going from Lansing all the way to New Hampshire. In doing so, he emerged as a very legitimate prospect. While the Blue Jays consistently had a highly rated farm system in the Anthopoulos era, it was rarely on the backs of low round draft picks. As a result, seeing someone like Greene emerge from that quagmire is a true credit to the team’s developmental staff.</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>After the Blue Jays traded away 11 pitching prospects at last year’s trade deadline, Greene remains the top pitching prospect left in the Jays system. While it’s unlikely that we&#8217;ll see Greene pitch for the Jays this season, he’s a key name to keep in mind if they need to upgrade the major league squad at the deadline.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AA New Hampshire</p>
<p>Greene will start the 2016 season where he left off 2015 in Double A New Hampshire. I expect that he&#8217;ll stay there for the majority of the season, especially with the Jays increased pitching depth<strong> </strong>decreasing their need for spot starters in 2016.</p>
<p><strong>Chad Girodo – Relief Pitcher</strong></p>
<p>PECOTA Projection: 50.2 IP, 4.12 ERA, 4.42 DRA, 6.9 K/9, 2.9 BB/9</p>
<p>The Jays selected Girodo in the 9<span style="font-size: small"><span style="line-height: 20px">th</span></span> round of the 2013 draft. He was primarily selected because, as a senior, he&#8217;d sign for just $10,000, and then the Jays could save money to spend on the rest of their draft picks. However, despite the low expectations, Girodo has climbed the ladder and emerged as a quality relief prospect (even though that is somewhat of an oxymoron).</p>
<p><em>How he fits: </em>The Jays have an abundance of contenders for the final bullpen slot coming out of camp. Girodo is clearly behind most of the veteran contenders in camp, but if he goes back to Buffalo and posts similar numbers to what he did last year it&#8217;s possible we could see him later in the year.</p>
<p><em>Likely Opening Day Assignment: </em>AAA Buffalo</p>
<p>Girodo got a cup of coffee in Triple A to close out 2015, so he will start the season back there for 2016.</p>
<p><em>*denotes player has already been reassigned to minor league camp</em></p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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