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	<title>Toronto &#187; Dylan Svoboda</title>
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		<title>Roberto Osuna&#8217;s Baserunner Problem</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/15/roberto-osunas-baserunner-problem/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/15/roberto-osunas-baserunner-problem/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 15 Sep 2017 10:28:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dylan Svoboda]]></dc:creator>
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		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13401</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[By fielding independent pitching and deserved run average numbers, Blue Jays closer Robert Osuna is having one of the best seasons from a relief pitcher in team history. His 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings is eighth-best in team history among relievers. His 1.81 fielding independent pitching is topped only by Duane Ward&#8217;s 1.78 FIP in [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>By fielding independent pitching and deserved run average numbers, Blue Jays closer Robert Osuna is having one of the best seasons from a relief pitcher in team history. His 11.6 strikeouts per nine innings is eighth-best in team history among relievers. His 1.81 fielding independent pitching is topped only by Duane Ward&#8217;s 1.78 FIP in 1991. His 2.26 DRA is fourth-best in team history among relievers.</p>
<p>And yet Osuna is sporting a 3.66 earned run average, which ranks 72nd out of 120 relievers with over 50 innings pitched this year. So what&#8217;s the reason for that separation?</p>
<p>It isn&#8217;t a batting average on balls in play problem. Although his BABIP allowed is a career high, .301 vs. a .247 career average prior to this season, it is still hovering around league average. His higher BABIP allowed is due mostly to his 11 percentage point increase in ground ball percentage, which yield a higher batting average on balls in play but lower slugging percentage.</p>
<p>It also isn&#8217;t a long-ball problem. Osuna has allowed just three home runs on the season, fewer than Craig Kimbrel and Kenley Jansen, arguably the two best relievers in baseball. In fact, the Toronto closer has allowed just 0.46 home runs per nine innings compared to 1.09 last year. His home run per fly ball rate is just 6.1 percent, well below the league average of 13.8 percent.</p>
<p>So it&#8217;s not batted balls or home runs. Instead, Osuna&#8217;s DRA and FIP are much lower than his ERA because of his extreme problems with leaving runners on base. He has stranded just 59.5 percent of baserunners this year, second-worst in the major leagues among those with over 50 innings pitched, just ahead of perennial coin flip reliever, Fernando Rodney.</p>
<p>And while things get bad once runners reach base, they get even worse when they are in scoring position. Osuna&#8217;s strikeout rate falls to 26.1 percent when there are runners on, still a solid number but nowhere near as dominant as his 36.3 rate without any baserunners. His batting average allowed shoots up to .262 when there are runners on, once again a decent benchmark but not anything spectacular.</p>
<p>Once they reach second (or third) base, however, Osuna is striking out just 23.1 percent of batters and has allowed a .300 average (batting average may be out of vogue as an evaluative statistic, but 3/10 batters getting hits with runners in scoring position is still quite bad). All told, Osuna has a 1.26 WHIP when there are runners in scoring position this year.</p>
<p>Sequencing has also been a big issue for Osuna this year. He has allowed two or more runs in an outing seven times this year, which accounts for most of his left on base and runners in scoring position troubles.</p>
<p>To underscore this issue, Osuna has been absolutely dominant with the bases empty. He has struck out 36.3 percent of the batters faced when nobody is on. Batters are hitting just .174 against him in the same situation.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s tough to see why Osuna is having these issues, however. He certainly has a different pitch mix with runners on compared to empty bases (see below), but the pitches he is throwing more of (cutter and slider) actually get <a href="https://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=532077&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=whiffswing&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=09/14/2017" target="_blank">more swings and misses</a> and <a href="https://www.brooksbaseball.net/outcome.php?player=532077&amp;b_hand=-1&amp;gFilt=&amp;pFilt=FA|SI|FC|CU|SL|CS|KN|CH|FS|SB&amp;time=year&amp;minmax=ci&amp;var=baa&amp;s_type=2&amp;startDate=03/30/2007&amp;endDate=09/14/2017" target="_blank">allow lower batting averages</a> than the fastball that he is abandoning.</p>
<h6 style="text-align: center"><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/09/Osuna-empty.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13446" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/09/Osuna-empty.png" alt="Osuna empty" width="985" height="333" /></a><br />
<a href="https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/statcast_search?hfPT=&amp;hfAB=&amp;hfBBT=&amp;hfPR=&amp;hfZ=&amp;stadium=&amp;hfBBL=&amp;hfNewZones=&amp;hfGT=R%7C&amp;hfC=&amp;hfSea=2017%7C&amp;hfSit=&amp;player_type=pitcher&amp;hfOuts=&amp;opponent=&amp;pitcher_throws=&amp;batter_stands=&amp;hfSA=&amp;game_date_gt=&amp;game_date_lt=&amp;player_lookup%5B%5D=532077&amp;team=&amp;position=&amp;hfRO=4%7C&amp;home_road=&amp;hfFlag=&amp;metric_1=&amp;hfInn=&amp;min_pitches=0&amp;min_results=0&amp;group_by=name&amp;sort_col=pitches&amp;player_event_sort=h_launch_speed&amp;sort_order=desc&amp;min_abs=0#results" target="_blank">via Baseball Savant</a></h6>
<p>With hitters, it is assumed that exceptional or terrible performance with runners in scoring position will eventually stabilize relative to the players true talent level. Thankfully, it is the same story for pitchers and Osuna has never had this issue in the past. In 2016 and 2015, he posted well above average strand rates at 82.5 and 79.7 percent respectively. His strikeout rates also stayed steady with and without baserunners.</p>
<p>So although the Blue Jays should still be doing everything they can to clean up Osuna&#8217;s troubles with men on base, they should at the same time expect his LOB percentage to regress toward the mean. Fifty-nine innings just isn&#8217;t enough to conclude that Osuna has developed a new problem. The 143 2/3 innings he pitched prior to this season are much more predictive. Although it is something that should be monitored, Osuna should return to dominance when dealing with baserunners in addition to of his elite strikeout, walk, and home run ratios. This will help him strand runners at rates in the Kimbrel and Jansen company where he belongs, leaving the nail-biting to Diamondbacks fans watching Rodney.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>Why Joe Biagini Deserves Another Chance in the Rotation</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/24/why-joe-biagini-deserves-another-chance-in-the-late-innings/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/24/why-joe-biagini-deserves-another-chance-in-the-late-innings/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 24 Aug 2017 13:05:20 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dylan Svoboda]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13095</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[In early May, Joe Biagini made his long-anticipated switch from the bullpen to the rotation. The early results were positive. From May 7th to June 9th, he posted a 3.38 earned run average over seven starts and 37 1/3 innings. It all went downhill from there for the twenty-seven-year-old right-hander. Over his next (and last) four [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In early May, Joe Biagini made his long-anticipated switch from the bullpen to the rotation. The early results were positive. From May 7th to June 9th, he posted a 3.38 earned run average over seven starts and 37 1/3 innings.</p>
<p>It all went downhill from there for the twenty-seven-year-old right-hander.</p>
<p>Over his next (and last) four starts, he allowed 20 earned runs over 17 1/3 innings, good for a whopping 10.38 ERA. The Blue Jays promptly and understandably removed him from the rotation, placing him back into the bullpen.</p>
<p>Upon his return to the bullpen, he posted a 5.54 ERA over 13 innings. The Blue Jays sent him to AAA Buffalo on August 4th after his struggles out of the bullpen, with the intention of stretching him out to make a possible return to the rotation this year or next.</p>
<p>Rumor is Biagini will be re-joining the Blue Jays rotation soon. Deservingly so despite his ugly earned run average.</p>
<p>Despite posting a 5.60 ERA as a starter this year, Biagini had a 3.81 fielding independent pitching. His 12 percent K/BB rate he posted as a starter would be 38th-best in the league if it held up. He walked less batters as a starter than he did as a reliever, a 7 percent walk rate as a starter versus 9.5 percent as a reliever.</p>
<p>Biagini&#8217;s problems stem from an elevated batting average on balls in play and struggles with men on base.</p>
<p>First off, the Blue Jays defense hasn&#8217;t done Biagini any favors as far as his balls in play goes. The Blue Jays defense has the seventh-worst defensive efficiency in the league and the Blue Jays as a team have also allowed the seventh-worst BABIP in the league at .306. Biagini has allowed a .312 BABIP as a starter this season.</p>
<p>While the high batting average on balls in play isn&#8217;t doing Biagini any good, most of his struggles can be tied to his issues when pitching with men on base. He has allowed a .938 OPS in 2017 with men on base, compared to a .561 OPS with the bases empty.</p>
<p>As a result, Biagini&#8217;s left on base rate has been terrible. Among those with over 60 innings pitched, Biagini has the worst LOB% at 60 percent. His earned run average with runners on, 12.18, is twelfth-worst in the league.</p>
<p>Although it is too small of a sample size to conclude that Biagini has a problem pitching with runners on, it should be noted he ran curiously low left on base rates throughout his minor-league career.</p>
<p>His four starts since going down to AAA Buffalo have been encouraging. He has a 3.12 ERA over 17 1/3 innings pitched. He&#8217;s getting a ground balls about 60 percent of the time and is striking out and walking batters at a very similar rate to what he did in the major leagues this season. The only real difference is his success with runners on base. His 80.3% left on base rate would be the best of his professional career, albeit in only 17 1/3 innings.</p>
<p>Biagini is getting his second chance. The Blue Jays brain trust were smart enough to realize he is much more than the results he put up earlier this season. If he has made any improvements at all to his output with men on base, expect Biagini to fill-in the back end of the Blue Jays rotation behind Marcus Stroman, J.A. Happ, and Aaron Sanchez.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
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		<title>What&#8217;s Wrong with Marco Estrada?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/10/whats-wrong-with-marco-estrada/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/10/whats-wrong-with-marco-estrada/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Mon, 10 Jul 2017 13:57:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dylan Svoboda]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12219</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays find themselves at the bottom of the American League East thanks to a myriad of factors: injuries, under-achievers across the roster, bad luck, and the second toughest schedule thus far. One of the most puzzling disappointments has been the complete breakdown of Marco Estrada as a quality, top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher. The veteran [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays find themselves at the bottom of the American League East thanks to a myriad of factors: injuries, under-achievers across the roster, bad luck, and <a href="http://http://www.baseballprospectus.com/sortable/extras/strength_of_schedule.php">the second toughest schedule thus far</a>. One of the most puzzling disappointments has been the complete breakdown of Marco Estrada as a quality, top-of-the-rotation starting pitcher.</p>
<p>The veteran right-hander has been the 9th-worst pitcher in baseball according to Baseball Prospectus&#8217; PWARP at -2.0 wins. Over the past few seasons, Estrada earned himself a reputation as a FIP and DRA beater due to his low ERA&#8217;s despite much higher peripherals. 2017 has been a different story: He has a 5.17 ERA and a 4.33 FIP so far in 2017, and a 7.40 DRA on top of that.</p>
<p>Part of what is so confusing is that Estrada is struggling despite throwing one of the best fastballs of his career. His average fastball velocity has crept back over 90 MPH to 90.2, after being at or below 90 MPH in each of the past four seasons. He is also getting whiffs on his fastball 10.5 percent of the time, his highest mark since the 2012 season. He is riding that newfound velocity to his highest strikeouts per nine innings of his career at 9.8. He is getting more strikeouts, but still having trouble.</p>
<p>One of the big reasons for those troubles is that Estrada has seemingly lost some feel for his typically other-worldly changeup. Hitters are making more contact with the pitch than before; he is getting whiffs on just 19.6 percent of his changeups after posting a 23.3 mark in 2016. In addition to hitting the ball more, batters are doing more damage once they put the ball in play. Estrada&#8217;s changeup is inducing more line drives than at any point in his career, 22.94 percent of the time, which has led to hitters slugging .477 off the pitch &#8211; by far the highest of his career.  At the same time that hitters are squaring up the pitch, Estrada is using his changeup more than ever. It&#8217;s possible he&#8217;s using it too often and showing his hand, turning what was once his calling card into a weakness.</p>
<p>Although he is mostly dependent on his fastball-changeup combo, Estrada&#8217;s curveball has also been much worse in 2017. While he is throwing the pitch just 6.9 percent of the time, the lowest mark of his career, he has given up a line drive 47.8 percent of the time when he throws his hook. That&#8217;s more than double his career high rate (21.1 percent). While a 47.8 percent line drive rate is completely unsustainable, it may explain why Estrada has been more dependent on his changeup than ever. If he is giving up a hard hit ball almost half the time with his curveball, he may feel he has no choice but to simply stop throwing it.</p>
<p>Estrada has been successful in the past due to his ability to limit hard contact. But with his offspeed pitches seeming to have abandoned him, that skill has disappeared in 2017. After posting BABIPs below .300 in every full season of his career, and .216 and .234 marks in 2015 and 2016 respectively, he has posted a .325 BABIP so far in 2017.  His pop-up percentage is well down at 11.6 percent after getting a pop-up 16.2 percent of the time in 2016 (that&#8217;s a drop of nearly 30 percent). Estrada is once again near the top of the league in fly ball percentage, but he is not generating the pop-ups that made his approach sustainable.</p>
<p>As one might expect with the same amount of flyballs but fewer popups, Estrada&#8217;s HR/9 is up to 1.51. Home runs have always been a part of his game and are expected with the way he pitches, but he is on his way to allowing over 30 home runs on the season. His HR/FB is 12.9 percent, and when you take into account his home ballpark and the other parks in the American League East, that doesn&#8217;t really suggest any sort of regression. The increased amount of home runs along with the jump in the number of hits given up suggest that it isn&#8217;t just a small sample size blip, but he may actually be much more hittable right now.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays need Marco Estrada to get right if they want to make one more wild-card run with this aging core. The BABIP gods have caught up to him. It remains to be seen if Estrada can regain his pop-up and BABIP magic, but for now he looks like a sub-replacement level starting pitcher with a 14.5 million dollar salary.</p>
<p>Lead Photo © Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports</p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
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