<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:wfw="http://wellformedweb.org/CommentAPI/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	xmlns:slash="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/slash/"
	>

<channel>
	<title>Toronto &#187; Andrew Munn</title>
	<atom:link href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/author/andrewmunn/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Tue, 24 Mar 2026 03:35:47 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<language>en-US</language>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>Luke Maile&#8217;s Success is Worth Celebrating</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/25/luke-mailes-success-is-worth-celebrating/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/25/luke-mailes-success-is-worth-celebrating/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 25 May 2018 10:48:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15923</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We&#8217;ve finally done it. For millennia, a person&#8217;s outlook on life could be tested with a simple idiom, one you may be familiar with: a straightforward question of whether or not a glass of water was half full or half empty. In the year 2018, we have finally found another test that is equally if not even more [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;ve finally done it.</p>
<p>For millennia, a person&#8217;s outlook on life could be tested with a simple idiom, one you may be familiar with: a straightforward question of whether or not a glass of water was half full or half empty. In the year 2018, we have finally found another test that is equally if not even more effective at finding out whether a person is an optimist or a pessimist. The test is just as simple, and, like the glass-half-full conundrum, measures a person&#8217;s reaction to a simple, factual statement:</p>
<p>Luke Maile has been one of the most valuable members of the 2018 Toronto Blue Jays.</p>
<p>Last season, Maile appeared at the plate 136 times. In those 136 plate appearances, he had 19 hits, seven of them going for extra bases. His production led to an overall line of .146/.176/.241, good for a true average of .165. The only player who recorded a lower tAV with a minimum of 100 plate appearances is <a href="https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/66268/arismendy-alcantara" target="_blank">now playing in the Mexican League</a>.</p>
<p>Maile&#8217;s struggles at the plate last season help put into context how remarkable his start to 2018 has been. This season he finds himself sitting fifth among all catchers in WARP, and while the Blue Jays as a team have been spiralling downward rather quickly as of late, Maile has conistently been one of the few bright spots. Not a bad turnaround for one the worst semi-regular hitters in the majors in 2017.</p>
<p>There is an elephant in the room that needs to be addressed whenever Maile’s accomplishments at the plate are brought up, though – his astronomical .477 BABIP. The last time that a player finished a qualified season with a BABIP that high was in 1871, when Levi Meyerle led the National Association of Professional Base Ball Players in hitting.</p>
<p>However, this high BABIP doesn’t mean that Maile’s increased production has been entirely luck-driven. His xWOBA in 2018 is sitting at .360, a rather notable improvement over his .206 mark from last season. He&#8217;s hitting balls harder this season, increasing his average exit velocity by 8.4 mph and his hard hit rate by 26 percent. So while Maile may be due for some regression, there could be reason to believe that he has tuly found something at the plate.</p>
<p>There are a couple of notable differences about Maile this season in comparison with last. One is his newfound and marked success against fastballs. Maile is slugging .533 against fourseamers this season, a notable improvement over his .297 career mark. While he has historically managed to hit breaking balls well &#8212; he owns a career .413 slugging percentage against them &#8212; he hasn&#8217;t shown that he can be a fastball hitter. That is, until now.</p>
<p>What could be leading to this increased production against fastballs? While small sample size may be afoot, Maile&#8217;s swing patterns this season in comparison with his career rates are interesting to look at:</p>
<p><a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Maile-Swing-Rates.png"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-15936" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2018/05/Maile-Swing-Rates.png" alt="Maile Swing Rates" width="985" height="533" /></a></p>
<p>Maile has been a lot more selective at the plate this season compared to previous years, noticeably reducing his swings outside the zone as well as on the outside part of the plate. Maile&#8217;s whiff rate hasn&#8217;t changed this year; in fact, it&#8217;s actually increased, as has his strikeout rate. But his current walk rate of 13.1 percent is six times greater than his 2017 rate, and his newfound propensity to crush fastballs is making it harder for pitchers to come right at him and avoid the free pass.</p>
<p>Luke Maile has shown over the past two months that he can be a better hitter than he was last season, when he was one of the league&#8217;s worst. He has also been able to perform when the spotlight has shone brightest, delivering two walk-off hits and <a href="https://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/luke-maile-just-guessed-right-homer-chris-sale/">hitting his seventh career home run </a>off of one of the toughest pitchers in baseball. And his defensive numbers haven&#8217;t suffered either, with Maile putting up above average framing numbers and posting a 4.3 FRAA.</p>
<p>All in all, Luke Maile has been great this year. His hot streak has provided some joy and reprieve for a team that has battled a myriad of injuries, had a player arrested, and is attempting to navigate their first year without a franchise icon while their next one waits in the wings. There haven&#8217;t been too many great stories for these Blue Jays, so when your backup catcher plays far better than one for nearly two months, it&#8217;s hard not to let a little optimism shine through.</p>
<div class="modal-image-setImageMetadata">
<p class="ng-binding"><em>Lead Photo © John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
</div>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/05/25/luke-mailes-success-is-worth-celebrating/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>What Would an &#8220;Optimized&#8221; Blue Jays Lineup Look Like in 2018?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/27/what-would-an-optimized-blue-jays-lineup-look-like-in-2018/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/27/what-would-an-optimized-blue-jays-lineup-look-like-in-2018/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Mar 2018 10:08:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=15480</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The 2018 season opens this week, and with it comes the annual debate about who should be leading off the Blue Jays lineup. Toronto has not possessed a prototypical leadoff hitter for a few years now, which has resulted in John Gibbons rolling out some fascinating lineup configurations in recent memory. Along with the leadoff [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The 2018 season opens this week, and with it comes the annual debate about who should be leading off the Blue Jays lineup. Toronto has not possessed a prototypical leadoff hitter for a few years now, which has resulted in John Gibbons rolling out some fascinating lineup configurations in recent memory.</p>
<p>Along with the leadoff debates come with them the clashing ideologies about how lineups should be constructed. The debate between the sabermetricians and the traditionalists has been raging for some time now, but all the while teams have been adopting combinations of the two styles to best position their clubs to win games. Today, we are going to take a look at what the Blue Jays lineup should look like from a purely analytical point of view, and see if this is really what would be best for the team.</p>
<p>We can look at <em>The Book</em> to find what an &#8220;optimized&#8221; lineup might look like. For those unfamiliar, <a href="https://www.amazon.ca/Book-Playing-Percentages-Baseball/dp/1494260174/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&amp;qid=1522027062&amp;sr=8-1&amp;keywords=the+book+baseball&amp;dpID=51d3dSilSlL&amp;preST=_SY264_BO1,204,203,200_QL40_&amp;dpSrc=srch" target="_blank"><em>The Book: Playing the Percentages in Baseball</em></a> was written in 2007 by Tom Tango, Mitchel Lichtman, and Andrew Dolphin, exploring the different ways that strategic decision-making could be better implemented and improved in baseball. While it looks at various facets of the game, perhaps its biggest impact has been on how thinking has evolved with regards to lineups.</p>
<p><em>The Book&#8217;s</em> research on optimal batting order essentially manifests in a table with the expected run values by each batting event, adjusted for both position in the batting order as well as the difference in plate appearances for each spot in the lineup. For example, while certain events may be more valuable coming from the #4 position than the #2 spot, the larger number of plate appearances the #2 hitter receives help make up some of the difference.</p>
<p>Using these values, the authors of <em>The Book</em> came up with a <a href="https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by" target="_blank">general outline</a> for lineup optimization. These rules have been steadily finding their way into the game in recent years, with more and more managers bucking traditions such as placing the speediest players in the leadoff spot or the most powerful hitter in the cleanup position.</p>
<p>What the authors of <em>The Book</em> didn&#8217;t have when they outlined these rules, however, is a specific team in mind. Their instructions were made to be taken as guidelines, as the optimal lineup will look different for many different teams due to the skill-sets of the players who occupy them.</p>
<p>If we wanted to look at what the optimal lineup would be for a specific team (say, the 2018 iteration of the Toronto Blue Jays), we could take a look at it through the lens of the previously mentioned expected runs table. Using this table in combination with PECOTA&#8217;s 2018 projections, plus the help of the trusty old Excel Solver add-in, we can figure out which sequence of hitters will optimize the Blue Jays&#8217; expected runs scored this season.</p>
<p>A little background on how we get to the results is necessary. Instead of using the raw values of batting of events (i.e. total number of singles, doubles, etc.), we are going to adjust it per plate appearance, so that the plate appearance projections don&#8217;t include any adjustments for expected position in the batting order.</p>
<p>Essentially, we are going to construct an &#8220;average plate appearance&#8221; for each player. The sum of each batting event for each player will add up to 1, and from here we can multiply the likelihood of each event by its added run probability. Since these expected run values will change based on spot in the lineup, Solver will find the lineup combination that best maximizes the total of each starter&#8217;s average expected run probability per plate appearance. Extending this number out to a team&#8217;s full season of plate appearances will give us the total expected impact of lineup optimization</p>
<p>It is important to note that <em>The Book</em> dissects and discusses topics like lineup construction from an objective point of view. Other factors will certainly to come into play, such as player comfort in certain spots, and the psychological benefits of a hierarchical lineup. Finding a way to achieve peak performance for all of a team&#8217;s players should be the manager&#8217;s top priority, which is why lineup optimization doesn&#8217;t occur as frequently as sabermetricians strive for.</p>
<p>With that, let&#8217;s take a look at what an optimal lineup would look like with the Blue Jays current projected starters:</p>
<p>1. Russell Martin – C</p>
<p>2. Justin Smoak – 1B</p>
<p>3. Randal Grichuk – RF</p>
<p>4. Josh Donaldson – 3B</p>
<p>5. Yangervis Solarte – SS</p>
<p>6. Curtis Granderson – LF</p>
<p>7. Kendrys Morales – DH</p>
<p>8. Devon Travis – 2B</p>
<p>9. Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</p>
<p><em>*This lineup was projected with Yangervis Solarte as the starting SS. This isn&#8217;t a prediction, as he was inserted simply because his offensive projections were better than those of Aledmys Diaz. Inserting Diaz instead and running the program again slots him 8th in the lineup, with Devon Travis moving to 5th.</em></p>
<p>This is a rather interesting lineup to look at, and brings up some intriguing questions about how the Blue Jays lineup could be constructed this season. We&#8217;ll take a look at some of the more interesting tidbits from this batting order.</p>
<p>The first thing that jumps out is the top of the lineup, beginning with Russell Martin. A catcher hitting leadoff would have been a laughable suggestion in years past, but his inclusion here makes a lot of sense. After Josh Donaldson, Martin has the highest projected on-base percentage of all starters this season. While he won&#8217;t be stealing many bases, he isn&#8217;t a liability on the base-paths and his power output is low enough that starting a good chunk of his plate appearances with no one on base won&#8217;t be a huge issue.</p>
<p>Justin Smoak hitting second and Donaldson fourth is an intriguing proposition as well. <em>The Book</em> outlines that a team&#8217;s best hitters should generally hit in the first, second, and fourth spots. This lineup certainly puts Smoak and Donaldson in those highly regarded spots, but likely in reverse of what would be expected. The accepted wisdom would have Donaldson hitting second so as to give the team&#8217;s best player more at bats.</p>
<p>Swapping these two so that Donaldson hits second and Smoak fourth results in a difference of -0.28 runs over a whole season, so the order of the two won&#8217;t make a world of difference. Still, it is certainly interesting to think about how this sequencing would play out in games, especially in the controlled environment of the first inning. This order would ensure that, barring any early runs scored, Donaldson would either: a) hit with runners on base in the first or b) lead off the second inning in his first plate appearance. Maximizing these types of situations for the team&#8217;s best hitter is a great way to generate more runs, and may be worth reducing the total amount of his plate appearances.</p>
<p>Randal Grichuk hitting third could be seen as a bit of a head scratcher. Grichuk is projected to have the lowest OBP of any Blue Jays starter this season, and while he has the power to hit in the three-hole, Smoak and Donaldson are better all-around hitters. The outfielder&#8217;s placement here has more to do with the overall importance of the #3 hitter rather than anything else. This spot in the lineup is more likely than most to begin with no one on and two outs. This is a situation in which a player like Grichuk is better suited to succeed than others &#8211; his high-strikeout tendencies won&#8217;t be of great harm with no one to strand, allowing him to freely aim for the home run ball or extra base hit to put someone in scoring position for Donaldson.</p>
<p>Yangervis Solarte hitting fifth is also a move that would not likely be thought of as best for the team. However, on a per-plate-appearance basis, Solarte ranks near the top of Blue Jays starters in singles and doubles, and is projected to strike out the least by a sizable margin. With a similar offensive profile to Devon Travis, his replacement in the #5 spot should Aledmys Diaz open the season at short, Solarte has been identified as the best remaining option to cash in and move up baserunners left from the top of the lineup.</p>
<p>There aren&#8217;t as many surprises filling out the bottom of the lineup as there were at the top, with projected average hitters in Granderson and Morales slotting in at #6 and #7 followed by Devon Travis and Kevin Pillar to round out the lineup. There is a sizable amount of shuffling that could be done in these slots without a meaningful impact on expected run production.</p>
<p>While this is what expected run values have determined the optimal lineup would be, it is certainly still a lineup with flaws. For one, it doesn&#8217;t take into consideration platoon splits, as it is difficult to project these out into the future. Certain moves, such as hitting Granderson in the leadoff spot against right-handers, could be conceivably beneficial but not measurable through this method of lineup construction.</p>
<p>Going further, it would be reasonable to worry about the lack of protection provided to Josh Donaldson, as teams certainly will be less fearful of Yangervis Solarte then they would be of someone like Justin Smoak. The first-baseman himself could also see more intentional walks, should the opposition feel that they are able to strike out Randal Grichuk behind him.</p>
<p>Finally, one also has to wonder about the speed distribution in a lineup such as this. With base-cloggers such as Smoak and Morales hitting ahead of the likes of Grichuk, Travis, and Pillar, potential base stealing and advancement opportunities are sure to cut down by a non-insignificant margin. <em>The Book</em> comes to the conclusion that base stealers can be leveraged by being slotted ahead of extreme singles hitters, and that while they don&#8217;t necessarily need to be base stealers, good baserunners should be ahead of the teams best hitters. Some extra re-positioning could be done to accomplish this should it be desired.</p>
<p>Even though this is what the data tells us the optimal lineup is, there are still many holes to poke in it. For comparison&#8217;s sake, below is my best guess as to what the actual Opening Day lineup will look like:</p>
<p>1. Devon Travis – 2B</p>
<p>2. Josh Donaldson – 3B</p>
<p>3. Justin Smoak – 1B</p>
<p>4. Randal Grichuk – RF</p>
<p>5. Kendrys Morales – DH</p>
<p>6. Curtis Granderson – LF</p>
<p>7. Russell Martin &#8211; C</p>
<p>8. Yangervis Solarte – SS</p>
<p>9. Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</p>
<p>This lineup, projected out over a full season, can be expected to score 2.54 fewer runs than the &#8220;optimal&#8221; lineup. While this difference is certainly not zero, John Gibbons is doing a rather decent job with structuring his lineup in a way that maximizes output while taking into consideration other factors.</p>
<p>For context &#8211; and a little fun as well &#8211; below is the Blue Jays&#8217; <em>worst</em> possible constructed lineup, which results in 10.97 fewer runs scored than the &#8220;optimal&#8221; lineup:</p>
<p>1. Randal Grichuk &#8211; RF</p>
<p>2. Kevin Pillar &#8211; CF</p>
<p>3. Devon Travis &#8211; 2B</p>
<p>4. Russell Martin &#8211; C</p>
<p>5. Curtis Granderson &#8211; LF</p>
<p>6. Kendrys Morales &#8211; DH</p>
<p>7. Yangervis Solarte &#8211; SS</p>
<p>8. Justin Smoak &#8211; 1B</p>
<p>9. Josh Donaldson &#8211; 3B</p>
<p><i>The Book</i> estimates that the difference between a team&#8217;s best and worst lineup would be around 10-15 runs, so it&#8217;s a good sign that our projections fall within this range. Looking at it realistically, the above lineup is something that would absolutely never happen, and the fact that doing something this unthinkable would only cost the team 11 runs shows that lineup construction offers only marginal benefits.</p>
<p>Still, the Blue Jays are projected to finish in a position in 2018 where the marginal wins mean the most, so any extra value that can be uncovered should be welcomed with open arms. While there won&#8217;t be a call to arms if the &#8220;optimized&#8221; lineup isn&#8217;t used by the Jays, some of the moves could be explored further to see if they are worthwhile pursuing. In particular, rolling out a top four of Russell Martin, Justin Smoak, Randal Grichuk, and Josh Donaldson, in whole or with some slight changes, could be a great way to kick-start offense in the early innings. While it wouldn&#8217;t be the most traditional lineup, it could be a way to grab an extra win or two. It would be a whole cheaper extracting that value from lineup construction rather than from a trade.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Eric Bolte-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/03/27/what-would-an-optimized-blue-jays-lineup-look-like-in-2018/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>1</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Is Troy Tulowitzki Poised to Bounce Back in 2018?</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/19/is-troy-tulowitzki-poised-to-bounce-back/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/19/is-troy-tulowitzki-poised-to-bounce-back/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Jan 2018 11:17:16 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14975</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[As we find ourselves closer and closer to spring training with an unusually underdeveloped free agent market, the 2018 Blue Jays roster is nonetheless beginning to come into focus. The Blue Jays have yet to make a big-name acquisition, thus far focusing on depth players like Yangervis Solarte and Aledmys Diaz. These moves were likely motivated by [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>As we find ourselves closer and closer to spring training with an unusually underdeveloped free agent market, the 2018 Blue Jays roster is nonetheless beginning to come into focus. The Blue Jays have yet to make a big-name acquisition, thus far focusing on depth players like <a title="Yangervis Solarte|Baseball Prospectus" href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/51557/yangervis-solarte" target="_blank">Yangervis Solarte</a> and <a title="Aledmys Diaz|Baseball Prospectus" href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/34706/aledmys-diaz" target="_blank">Aledmys Diaz.</a> These moves were likely motivated by the troubling amount of time that Blue Jays players missed to injury last season, which was a large contributing factor in the team&#8217;s overall poor performance. The front office probably does not want to fall into the same hole should such injuries happen again. In the case of some players, however, the effects of these depth signings will likely be felt even if they don&#8217;t get hurt. One of these players is <a title="Troy Tulowitzki|Baseball Prospectus" href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/46724/troy-tulowitzki" target="_blank">Troy Tulowitzki.</a></p>
<p>Troy Tulowitzki played nothing like the Tulo of old during the 2017 season. After producing a line of .249/.300/.378 over 260 plate appearances, it isn&#8217;t absurd to believe that the 33-year-old&#8217;s productive playing days are over. With three years and $58 million left owed to a player who only managed to accumulate 0.3 WARP over a half-season last year, the Blue Jays have found themselves in an unenviable position regarding Tulowitzki&#8217;s contract.</p>
<p>Tulowitzki seemed even more injury-prone last season than he has notoriously been throughout his career. After missing a month early in the season due to hamstring troubles, the shortstop was shut down for the final two months of the season with ligament damage in his right ankle after <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/c-1660022483?q=troy+tulowitzki+injury">an unfortunate encounter with the first-base bag</a>. This was an unsettling amount of time missed for Tulowitzki, who only appeared in 66 games in 2017 after managing to play in 259 games over his previous two campaigns.</p>
<p>Blaming Tulowitzki&#8217;s poor performance on his injuries could be seen as a cop-out, but the ankle injury did seem to be the nail in the coffin for him. After a poor start to the season that preceded his hamstring injury, Tulowitzki returned in late May to similarly disappointing results. In late June, Jonah Keri <a href="http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/mlb/curious-case-troy-tulowitzkis-low-k-rate-missing-bat-speed/" target="_blank">outlined the differences in Tulowitzki&#8217;s 2016 swing in comparison with his 2017 iteration</a>. His swing seemed to be less focused and involved more moving parts, which might have been a result of the hamstring injury.</p>
<p>However, it seemed like Tulowitzki was beginning to build momentum towards a better season before his season-ending DL stint. From the arbitrary date of June 23rd (incidentally, right after the Keri article was published) through the rest of his season, Tulowitzki hit .266/.304/.431 in 115 plate appearances, only a slightly below league average rate. While this doesn&#8217;t mean that Tulowitzki will continue to hit at this rate when he returns in 2018, it shows that he was making strides towards a better season before going down with the unfortunate ankle injury in July.</p>
<p>There definitely needs to be some protection for Tulowitzki should he go down again. Going further, if the Blue Jays are to take more proactive measures, building more rest into his schedule will likely result in Tulowitzki staying on the field longer. The Jays needed to rely on Tulowitzki and <a title="Devon Travis|Baseball Prospectus" href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/100193/devon-travis" target="_blank">Devon Travis</a> last season given that the sub-replacement level <a title="Ryan Goins|Baseball Prospectus" href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/60144/ryan-goins" target="_blank">Ryan Goins</a> and <a title="Darwin Barney" href="http://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/card/57645/darwin-barney" target="_blank">Darwin Barney</a> were their primary backups, and this reliance may have led to more opportunities for injury. Now, however, the backup role will fall to Diaz and Solarte: the latter worth an acceptable 1.2 WARP in 2017, the former only a season removed from his 4.0-WARP rookie year. This could end up being the biggest benefit of the Diaz and Solarte acquisitions, as both will able to step in for Tulowitzki and Travis when necessary without as significant of a production drop-off.</p>
<p>Back in September, John Gibbons said outright that the <a href="https://www.thescore.com/news/1343504" target="_blank">Blue Jays are committing to Troy Tulowitzki in 2018</a>. This is a logical move, as there likely isn&#8217;t a trade the Blue Jays could make with the veteran that would make the team better. Something that is encouraging, then, is that the Blue Jays are doing what they can to put Tulowitzki in a position to succeed in 2018. Our own Dave Church wrote about how the Blue Jays can <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/06/how-the-jays-can-live-with-troy-tulowitzki/" target="_blank">get the most out of Tulowitzki</a> back in September, and they are an addition or two away from taking all of the steps that Dave outlined.</p>
<p>Returning from his ankle injury with better supporting depth up the middle of the infield, Troy Tulowitzki may be poised for a bounce-back campaign in 2018. While expecting the Rockies-era superstar production to return is a fool&#8217;s errand, a two-to-three WARP version of the shortstop is hardly out of reach. If he can prove that 2017 was an unlucky and abnormal season, Tulowitzki could make a profound impact on a Blue Jays team trying to sneak into the playoffs in 2018.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/19/is-troy-tulowitzki-poised-to-bounce-back/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>How the Blue Jays Can Trade Kendrys Morales</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/19/how-the-blue-jays-can-trade-kendrys-morales/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/19/how-the-blue-jays-can-trade-kendrys-morales/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Dec 2017 12:29:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14637</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[From the outside, it appears that this offseason hasn&#8217;t been kind to the Blue Jays &#8211; who are currently farther away from 2018 contention than they were at the beginning of it. Unless Shapiro, Atkins &#38; Co. are willing to blow up their plans for the future (which they almost certainly, and rightfully, will not), there will need to [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>From the outside, it appears that this offseason hasn&#8217;t been kind to the Blue Jays &#8211; who are currently farther away from 2018 contention than they were at the beginning of it. Unless Shapiro, Atkins &amp; Co. are willing to blow up their plans for the future (which they almost certainly, and rightfully, will not), there will need to be a lot that breaks right for the Jays to return to the playoffs in 2018.</p>
<p>At a quick scan of the roster, the presence of core pieces such as Josh Donaldson, Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, and Justin Smoak is promising. While an extra addition or two will still likely need to be made (cue the “Lo-ren-zo!” chants), there is enough talent on the roster to reasonably squint and see the foundation of a winner in 2018. Some nice complementary pieces are also present, as good and relatively healthy seasons from Troy Tulowitzki, Marco Estrada, and Devon Travis will go a long way in pushing this team over the top, to say nothing of steady contributions from J.A. Happ, Russell Martin, and Kevin Pillar.</p>
<p>&#8216;Healthy&#8217; is an excruciatingly important qualifier for a lot of these players. With so many key contributors unable to step on the field at any given time throughout the 2017 season, reaching the playoffs seemed like a goal that was always just out reach. While it’s probable that less time will be lost due to injury this season, health is never a given and it would be nice to take some proactive measures against the disabled list in 2018.</p>
<p>One way to do this would be to utilize the DH as a sort of roving lineup spot, given to players who could use a day off from the field while still getting their at bats in. In order for this to work, the Blue Jays need to focus some offseason additions on players who can help spell time in the field for their regulars. The team accomplished this to an extent with the acquisition of Aledmys Diaz, who will be used almost as a third starter behind Tulowitzki and Travis up the middle.</p>
<p>Players such as Jose Ramirez and Marwin Gonzalez, coined as super-utility players, are the types that will provide the most value for an oft-injured and aging team such as the Blue Jays and should be prioritized in off-season acquisitions. While Ramirez and Gonzalez will not be on the market themselves, there are plenty of other options available.</p>
<p>A weight that will hold down this plan is current designated hitter Kendrys Morales. While he is a reasonably good hitter, sporting a .250/.308/.445 line in 2017 with 28 home runs in a down year last season, his value is extremely suppressed by his base-clogging tendencies and his positional inflexibility at DH and first. When Morales produces at the plate at a rate that is less than middle-of-the-order caliber, he becomes a below replacement-level player. This was evidenced last year, when Morales was worth -0.5 WARP even though he hit at a just slightly below league-average rate.</p>
<p>By ridding themselves of Morales&#8217; contract, the Blue Jays would acquire a great amount of flexibility, allowing them to cycle through the DH spot to rest some players after hard games on the Rogers Centre turf. However, it is not very easy to find takers for a 34-year old designated hitter owed $23 million over the next two years.</p>
<p>One team that may be willing to take on Morales&#8217; contract is the New York Mets. The team said recently that they were <a href="https://www.newsday.com/sports/baseball/mets/mets-jason-kipnis-1.15459081" target="_blank">more inclined to take on salary</a> than to part with prospects in trade, potentially making them a fit for Morales. Dumping Morales&#8217; contract to another team would be the ideal move for the Jays, allowing for more dollars to allocate to other needs. A big factor any potential deal, however, would be how convinced the Mets are that Morales could play the field. He played over 100 innings at first for the Blue Jays this year, but hasn&#8217;t played more than 300 innings at the position since 2010, the year he tore his ACL.</p>
<p>Asides from the Mets, it is tough to find a team that would be willing to take on Morales&#8217; entire contract. Given this, the only way the Blue Jays may be able to ship out the DH is by taking on another bad contract themselves. While this option seems like it moves further away from the solution, taking on more money in exchange for Morales could potentially fill another of Toronto&#8217;s needs, while also having less of a financial impact than keeping Morales and signing a similar free agent to a market-price deal.</p>
<p>A good example of the framework of a trade that could work for both sides would be sending Morales back to the Kansas City Royals for Alex Gordon. Gordon is owed $40 million over the next two seasons, with a $23 million club option for 2020 and a $4 million buyout. Taking on Morales in a Gordon trade would likely be a good move for the Royals, as it would open up space in the outfield for one of their young players such as Jorge Soler, give them a familiar face to split time at first base and DH with Brandon Moss, and shed salary at the same time.</p>
<p>From a Blue Jays perspective, if it becomes clear to the front office that Morales&#8217; contract is unshakable, then the addition of Gordon only adds $21 million to the payroll if Morales goes the other way. At $10 million per season with a certain $4 million buyout of the soon-to-be 34 year old&#8217;s $23 million option in 2020, this would be a reasonably-priced deal in today&#8217;s free agent market, with the Jays not having to send anything back in a trade other than Morales.</p>
<p>While Gordon hit abysmally with a tAV of .223 last season, this was by far the lowest mark of his career, giving him some room to bounce back slightly. In addition, his floor remains a lot higher than that of Morales, due to his plus (and former Gold Glove-caliber) fielding. If both players&#8217; production value at the plate are on the decline in their age-34 seasons, Gordon will likely still be able to field the outfield, making him a more valuable piece than Morales. This will also open up the DH spot for the Blue Jays, allowing them to utilize a more cyclical approach to their lineup by pursuing players such as Josh Harrison.</p>
<p>If Gordon doesn&#8217;t work out for Toronto, there are other options that could present themselves.  Ian Desmond of the Rockies has $62 million left over the four guaranteed years of his contract. The Rockies, who have multi-positional top prospect Ryan McMahon blocked by Nolan Arenado and DJ Lemahieu, may be willing to ship Desmond out for a player such as Morales on a shorter term to make room for him. Given the $39 million dollar difference between the two players, the Rockies would likely package a prospect in return in this type of deal as well, allowing the Blue Jays to use some financial muscle to obtain pieces for their present and future.</p>
<p>As mentioned above with the Mets, the Rockies would need to be confident in Morales&#8217; ability to play first base. In addition, the Blue Jays would need to assess Desmond&#8217;s ability to play in the outfield, or to be able to return to a middle infield role. After a dismal year at the plate slashing .274/.326/.375, Desmond would also be in need of a bounce back year, but his experience playing multiple positions would be a benefit for the Blue Jays. In addition, his contract is front loaded, meaning that the additional salary paid to him (after removing Morales&#8217; portion paid) would be $11 million in 2018, $3 million in 2019, $15 million in 2020, $8 million in 2021 and a $15 million option in 2022 with a $2 million buyout.</p>
<p>The two players listed above, Gordon and Desmond, represent two players that the Blue Jays could acquire to help improve their roster&#8217;s flexibility. By sending Kendrys Morales the other way in deals for these players, Toronto will lessen the impact of these additions on their bottom line, and in return receive both a flexible DH spot as well as a potentially serviceable fit for the 2018 roster.</p>
<p>Given their comparative budget constraints to teams like the the Yankees and Red Sox, Toronto will need to maximize the value of the players that they do have in order to compete this season. By becoming more flexible and allocating for more rest days without a severe talent drop in replacement players, the Blue Jays can be more proactive in managing their players&#8217; health. Building a multi-layered platoon of utility players might be able to compete with the suddenly larger number of superstars present in the AL playoff race, and the first step in the direction of a flexible roster structure is trading away the inflexibility of Kendrys Morales.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/19/how-the-blue-jays-can-trade-kendrys-morales/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>6</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>The Most Exciting* Blue Jays Wins of 2017</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/20/re-living-the-most-exciting-blue-jays-wins-of-2017/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/20/re-living-the-most-exciting-blue-jays-wins-of-2017/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 20 Oct 2017 14:51:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13908</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[With the MLB postseason in full swing, the Blue Jays find themselves on the outside looking in for the first time since 2014. While playoff baseball in Toronto is dearly and sorely missed, watching the postseason without a vesting interest in the outcome allows for rooting for close games rather than a blowout for your favourite team. Baseball is at [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>With the MLB postseason in full swing, the Blue Jays find themselves on the outside looking in for the first time since 2014. While playoff baseball in Toronto is dearly and sorely missed, watching the postseason without a vesting interest in the outcome allows for rooting for close games rather than a blowout for your favourite team. Baseball is at its best when every pitch has significance, when the outcome of the game is in question at all times and the opportunity to be the hero is presented to everyone on all the remaining squads.</p>
<p>These qualifiers exist perpetually in October, where reputations are earned or tarnished based on one month (at most) of a seven-month slate of games. In the regular season, however, these games are much more sparse. A team may find their night ending in a 6-5 walk-off win, just to be blown out 12-1 the next day. While we can tell that these games have different levels of excitement inherent within them, it&#8217;s a difficult concept to quantify.</p>
<p>This is especially true when we consider that people have different qualifiers for what makes an &#8220;exciting&#8221; baseball game. While most neutral observers of a game can agree that close games are more fun to watch than blowouts, the crowd is more divided when it comes to preferring high-scoring games as opposed to pitcher&#8217;s duels. Because of the subjectivity associated with what people would rather see in games, no measure of excitement will ever be truly objective.</p>
<p>With that said, it still would be nice to point to a definitive measurement of excitement in baseball. So today, we&#8217;re going to try and establish some of the more fun games of the year. While everyone will (and should) have their own favourite games for totally different reasons, this exercise will try and prove which games were the most situationally exciting with cold, hard data.</p>
<p>The key word there is situationally. A very large part of the fun and excitement that comes with baseball is the plays and storylines involved. While systems such as Statcast may be able to provide us with data points such as the number of highlight plays in a game, it would be difficult to extract this data to compare levels of excitement. As for situational excitement, data in the form of win probabilities is much easier to access and can be fairly easily manipulated once collected to help us measure the excitement found in baseball on a game-to-game basis.</p>
<p>To help measure some of the different elements of baseball excitement, we&#8217;re going to look at two different methods. The first method we will use has been explored in other sports such as <a href="http://www.inpredictable.com/2016/06/exciting-finals-boring-games.html">basketball</a> and <a href="http://archive.advancedfootballanalytics.com/2009/06/best-games-of-decade.html">football</a> – the Excitement Index (EI). The EI is calculated by summing the absolute values of all of the win probability changes throughout the game. By doing this, we are able to see how often each team&#8217;s odds of winning change, so that games where there is a push and pull in the probabilities grade out higher.</p>
<p>The second method that we will look at is called the Offensive Excitement Factor (OEF). For this method, we will take the total runs scored by both teams in a game and multiply it by the average Leverage Index. For those unfamiliar, the Leverage Index (LI) is a measure of how high the stakes are at any point in a game, where events that could change the complexion of a game having a high LI and events that won&#8217;t likely change the outcome having a low LI. By using the LI as a multiplier, this method rewards games which were tense throughout while also taking into account the amount of total runs scored in the game.</p>
<p>Both of these methods have their advantages and disadvantages. The Excitement Index is probably the most well-rounded, as it is literally able to capture the ups and downs of a tightly contested ballgame. However, one major fault of the Index is its tendency to rate extra inning games a tad highly. While extra innings games can be good, a <a href="https://www.mlb.com/gameday/blue-jays-vs-red-sox/2017/09/05/492176?partnerId=LR_box#game_tab=box,game_state=final,game=492176" target="_blank">19-inning contest with no runs scored from innings 10-18</a> would not likely come to mind as the second most exciting game of the year as this index would suggest.</p>
<p>The Offensive Excitement Factor tries to combat this, as it rewards barn burners over low-scoring pitchers&#8217; duels. It likely wouldn&#8217;t be able to stand on its own as a catch-all measure of exciting games, however, as it underrates low-scoring games more than it probably should. But when using this method in combination with the Excitement Index, we seem to be able to find some sort of balance between roller-coaster baseball coupled with high-scoring games.</p>
<p>The goal of this is to boil the &#8220;excitement&#8221; in a game down to one number. To do this, I&#8217;ve calculated the EI and OEF of every Blue Jays game this season. Once this was done, I calculated the z-scores for each game and added them together, scaling the score up so that an average game has a score of 5. The result is a definitive (or not, depending on your preference) measure of every Jays game&#8217;s excitement level in 2017.</p>
<p>To verify that the games at the top of the list were, in fact, actually exciting, let&#8217;s go through them individually. The nature of these games is that the result was up in the air until the end. And since it would be no fun to recap some of the ones that got away for Toronto this year, we are going to recap the five most exciting Blue Jays <strong>wins</strong> of the season.</p>
<h4><strong>5. July 27 &#8211; Blue Jays vs. Athletics, W 8-4, Game Score 8.3</strong></h4>
<p>Coming off of a dramatic 9th inning walk-off win the previous night, Marcus Stroman and the Blue Jays stumbled out of the gate early on this Thursday afternoon, giving up three runs in the 1st. After Josh Donaldson trimmed the lead with one of his oft-occurring first-inning home runs, things were fairly quiet until the 5th. Tensions boiled over in the inning, as John Gibbons, Russell Martin, and Stroman found themselves tossed from the game within a matter of minutes by (so-called) umpire Will Little. This seemed to spark the Jays, as Wednesday night&#8217;s hero Kendrys Morales proceeded to deliver a solo shot in the bottom half of the 5th, followed by a game tying RBI single to center by Justin Smoak in the 6th.</p>
<p>Nonetheless, Toronto once again found themselves trailing in the 9th before, once again, Kendrys Morales sent another solo shot to center to give him three home runs in five plate appearances, sending the game to extra innings. After a clean inning from Roberto Osuna, former Blue Jay Liam Hendriks not only walked the bases loaded, but came a pitch away from a Shrimp before serving up a much grander ending to Steve Pearce.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/pearces-walk-off-grand-slam/c-1657068783?tid=240570844" width="400" height="224" ></iframe></p>
<h4><strong>4. June 19 &#8211; Blue Jays @ Rangers, W 7-6, Game Score 8.8</strong></h4>
<p>Entering Globe Life Park in Arlington for the first time since taking two games from the Rangers in the 2016 playoffs, Marco Estrada looked to bring the Blue Jays within one game of .500 and bounce back from a rough three start stretch in which he gave up 17 runs in 12.2 innings. The teams traded punches from the get go, with Nomar Mazara and Justin Smoak belting matching solo shots in the 1st. After Jose Bautista muscled his 12th home run of the season in the 2nd, Steve Pearce roped a double to left to clear the since-loaded bases and give the Jays an early 5-1 lead. This seemingly comfortable lead would soon slip away, as Estrada exited the game in the 4th inning with the Blue Jays down 6-5, his slump lasting another start.</p>
<p>For all the early scoring, the bullpens kept the game under control afterwards. The Blue Jays threatened in the 6th with the bases loaded and one out, but squandered the opportunity after pop outs from Pearce and Ryan Goins. Matt Bush entered the game in the 9th to finish off the Blue Jays and complete the strong work by the Rangers bullpen, but instead gave up hits to Goins, Donaldson, and Morales to flip the game in the Blue Jays&#8217; favour. Roberto Osuna had no such troubles in the bottom half of the inning, earning the Blue Jays the victory and securing the win for journeyman reliever Jeff Beliveau.</p>
<h4><strong>3. May 10 &#8211; Blue Jays vs. Indians, W 8-7, Game Score 8.8</strong></h4>
<p>Francisco Liriano toed the hill against Danny Salazar in this matchup as the Blue Jays looked to distance themselves from their brutal start with a series victory against the Indians. Neither starter managed find their footing in this one, with Jason Kipnis doubling home a pair of runs before Liriano could record an out. The Blue Jays would counter with three runs of their own, culminating with a frozen rope of a home run from Bautista in the bottom half.</p>
<p>Liriano and Salazar continued to work with impressive synchronization, each pitching a scoreless second before being chased in the 3rd. By the time the dust had settled, the Indians found themselves with a 7-5 lead. Darwin Barney then opened the bottom half of the 4th with a double, before being cashed in courtesy of a two-run shot from Ezequiel Carrera. Once again, the bullpens managed to suppress the scoring after having their starters got knocked out early, and neither team managed to get a runner to third base for four and a half innings. This stretch ended in the 9th, with none other than &#8220;Mr. RISP&#8221; himself delivering a bases-loaded, walk-off hit:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/goins-walk-off-single/c-1375653383?tid=69490714" width="400" height="224" ></iframe></p>
<h4><strong>2. April 25 &#8211; Blue Jays @ Cardinals, W 6-5, Game Score 10.2</strong></h4>
<p>While this game will (deservedly) be remembered for a couple of jaw-dropping plays, it was an incredibly exciting game within itself. The opening game of this interleague series began with the Cardinals taking a 1-0 lead on a Jedd Gyorko single to center. The Blue Jays took the lead in the 4th after errant throw off of the head of Ezequiel Carrera and an RBI groundout from Morales, which was quickly erased in the bottom half with an RBI single from Yadier Molina. The score stayed even until, well, this happened:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/coghlan-leaps-over-yadi-to-score/c-1322008283?tid=6479266" width="400" height="224" ></iframe></p>
<p>The Jays would push their lead to 4-2 after (a clearly still flabbergasted) Gyorko committed an error on the next play, allowing Kevin Pillar to score. Jose Martinez would answer for the Cardinals in the bottom half, knocking an opposite-field two run home run to tie the game. The familiar bespectacled face of Brett Cecil made his first appearance against the Blue Jays in the 9th and Jose Bautista greeted him rather rudely by hitting a go-ahead RBI single to left. Continuing to match the Jays tit for tat, Dexter Fowler sent the game to extra innings in the bottom half with an RBI single. Running out of options in the 11th, John Gibbons turned to an unconventional pinch hitter &#8211; setting up for an astonishing at-bat for Marcus Stroman.</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/stromans-double-clutch-run/c-1323392383?tid=6479266" width="400" height="224" ></iframe></p>
<p>Stroman would score on an error by Aledmys Diaz, and Ryan Tepera finished off the second-most exciting Blue Jays win of 2017. You could forgive Blue Jays fans for being a little unimpressed, however, considering that the most exciting win came a mere four days prior.</p>
<h4><strong>1. April 21 &#8211; Blue Jays @ Angels, W 8-7, Game Score 12.4</strong></h4>
<p>The most exciting win (and game) of the year for Toronto started out in Anaheim with two scoreless innings each from Alex Meyer and Mat Latos. Just as expected.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays got to Meyer in the 3rd, as a combination of walks, sacrifices, and wild pitches manufactured a 2-0 lead. This was swiftly wiped out in the bottom half of the inning, as Albert Pujols cleared the bases with a three-run double down the line to give the Angels a one-run lead. In the 5th, Mike Trout extended the lead to 4-2 with his fifth home run of the season. The Jays made it 4-3 on a fielder&#8217;s choice in the bottom half, before things locked down for a couple innings on the behalf of Danny Barnes and Yusmeiro Petit. In the 8th, Justin Smoak gave the Blue Jays the lead with a two-run double, only to have it taken away by a Jefry Marte double in the bottom half.</p>
<p>The game proceeded into extra innings, at which point both teams seemed like they had forgotten how to score. Both sides threatened with runners on first and second in the 10th, then proceeded to put up little fight through the 12th. Jesse Chavez (who later started the last game of the four game series) quickly retired the first two Blue Jays hitters in the 13th, setting up for what was looking like another scoreless inning. Instead, two singles later, a Blue Jays icon was set up perfectly for his first home run of the season:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="https://www.mlb.com/video/share/bautistas-go-ahead-home-run/c-1311222083?tid=69490714" width="400" height="224" ></iframe></p>
<p>Aaron Loup was spotted a three-run lead for the bottom half, three runs that ended up being very desperately needed. Two errors, a passed ball, and a walk later, and Joe Biagini now found himself on the mound with the bases loaded and none out. After striking out Cliff Pennington, a Cole Kalhoun single and Mike Trout hit-by-pitch brought the game within one run with only one out and the bases still loaded. Luckily, Biagini had some magic saved up, strucking out Albert Pujols before getting CJ Cron to fly out to finish of the thriller.</p>
<p>So all told, the five most exciting Blue Jays wins of the year included four one-run games, two walk-off wins, and five games decided in the last inning of play. While this is likely not a perfect process for determining how exciting games can be, it is a start, one that may be able to be built on when we have more data from smarter minds than mine.</p>
<p>For all of the heartbreak and disappointment the 2017 Blue Jays faced, what this exercise has shown is that moments of euphoria still existed. The Steve Pearce grand slam(s), the Ryan Goins walk-off, the Marcus Stroman double (and later home run), and the Coghlan Leap all served as stand-out joyful moments in a season that seemed lost nearly from the outset. At its core, baseball presents itself as a distraction from the stressors of everyday life. And when the doom and gloom of losing season strikes, it somehow still manages to find a way to distract us from itself.</p>
<p>Because at the end of the day, we can always count on a two-out, three-run home run from Jose Bautista to take our mind off things for a while.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Dan Hamilton-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/10/20/re-living-the-most-exciting-blue-jays-wins-of-2017/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>September 18, 2018: Blue Jays Hang On vs. the Orioles</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/19/september-18-2018-blue-jays-hang-on-vs-the-orioles/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/19/september-18-2018-blue-jays-hang-on-vs-the-orioles/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 19 Sep 2017 11:02:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13461</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[*In the midst of not-so-dearly missed meaningless September baseball games, we now flash forward one year into the future, a more hopeful time in which we find the Toronto Blue Jays pushing for their 3rd playoff appearance in 4 years* &#160; The Blue Jays grip on the first wild card spot tightened ever so slightly on Monday night, [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><em>*In the midst of not-so-dearly missed meaningless September baseball games, we now flash forward one year into the future, a more hopeful time in which we find the Toronto Blue Jays pushing for their 3rd playoff appearance in 4 years*</em></p>
<p>&nbsp;</p>
<p>The Blue Jays grip on the first wild card spot tightened ever so slightly on Monday night, as they survived a late scare to top the Orioles 7-5 in Baltimore.</p>
<p>Toronto has received stellar production from all over the diamond this year, and Monday was no different as it was the young faces of the future helping spark a victory. Vlad Guerrero Jr. went 2-4 with a solo shot in the fourth inning, his third since his call-up on September 1st. Elsewhere, Bo Bichette came on as a defensive replacement in the sixth, and ended up being a crucial part of the win as he smacked a two-RBI single in the ninth to cash what would end up being the Blue Jays&#8217; winning runs.</p>
<p>After the Blue Jays were heavily criticized for supposedly rushing Bichette and Guerrero Jr. to the big leagues, the two wunderkinds have done nothing but prove the naysayers wrong during Toronto&#8217;s most recent playoff run. Guerrero is currently hitting .312 with three homers, and Bichette has coupled his .286 average with four doubles and a spectacular highlight-reel catch, robbing Didi Gregorius of the Yankees on Saturday.</p>
<p>&#8220;Kinda goes to show that we knew what we were doing all along, doesn&#8217;t it?&#8221; John Gibbons joked from the clubhouse after the game. &#8220;But the two of them deserve all the credit for that. To get called up to this league, with a target on your back like there is, at 19 and 20 years old, and start off hot like this? It&#8217;s remarkable.&#8221;</p>
<p>Starter Roberto Osuna continued his masterful 2018 campaign, throwing seven innings of two run ball with eight strikeouts and two walks. The right-hander has now thrown at least seven innings in six of his last nine starts, sporting an ERA of 2.40 over the same stretch to bring his season total to 3.62 over 168.2 innings.</p>
<p>&#8220;He&#8217;s been on a tear lately, we&#8217;ve gotten some great innings out of him&#8221; Gibbons commented. &#8220;He&#8217;s come so far, he&#8217;s been one of the more reliable guys in the rotation, which is pretty impressive considering how darn good all of our starters have been this year.&#8221;</p>
<p>The Jays got off to a good start early, as Justin Smoak knocked a two-RBI double in the first. The ball hit off of the top of the wall, nearly clearing the fence for Smoak&#8217;s 30th home run on the season, but still managed to cash in Josh Donaldson and Devon Travis after starter Jesse Chavez issued back-to-back walks to start the game.</p>
<p>Chavez calmed down afterwards to retire the side, and things stayed quiet until the bottom of the third, when Adam Jones singled in a run to center. The Blue Jays responded in the fourth, with Vlad Jr.&#8217;s 428-foot shot to left-center giving Toronto a 3-1 lead. The teams traded runs again in the fifth, where after Ryan Goins cashed in a two-out RBI single up the middle, Manny Machado hit a sacrifice fly to cut the lead to 4-2.</p>
<p>In the sixth, Ezequiel Carrera led off with a walk before Josh Donaldson hit in his 93rd RBI of the season with a double off the wall in centre. The score remained 5-2 until the eighth, when Chris Davis belted a two-run home run off of a low-and-away Dominic Leone changeup, making it a one-run game. That didn&#8217;t last for long, however, as Bichette took advantage of hits by Teoscar Hernandez and Russell Martin in the top half of the ninth by lining a single to right-centre, cashing both Jays to extend the lead to 7-4.</p>
<p>A Mark Trumbo solo shot made it a two-run game in the bottom half, but closer Danny Barnes didn&#8217;t let it get any closer, locking up his 34th save of the season with three strikeouts. The win pushes the Blue Jays&#8217; lead over the Mariners and the second wild card spot to three games with nine games remaining on the season</p>
<p>After taking two of three in Baltimore, the Blue Jays will return to the Rogers Centre on Thursday for their final homestand of the year as they take on the Rays. Chris Archer will take the hill for the Rays, who will face off against Blue Jays ace Shohei Otani.</p>
<p><i>Lead Photo: Dan Hamilton — USA TODAY Sports</i></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/19/september-18-2018-blue-jays-hang-on-vs-the-orioles/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Ezequiel Carrera&#8217;s Approach is Evolving</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/29/ezequiel-carreras-approach-is-evolving/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/29/ezequiel-carreras-approach-is-evolving/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 29 Aug 2017 10:01:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Featured]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13102</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ezequiel Carrera’s beginnings with the Blue Jays came with little fervor or fanfare. After signing with Toronto as a minor league free agent prior to the 2015 season, he made his Blue Jays debut in May of that year replacing a struggling Dalton Pompey. The move wasn&#8217;t likely thought to be a long-term one, as [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ezequiel Carrera’s beginnings with the Blue Jays came with little fervor or fanfare. After signing with Toronto as a minor league free agent prior to the 2015 season, he made his Blue Jays debut in May of that year replacing a struggling Dalton Pompey. The move wasn&#8217;t likely thought to be a long-term one, as the idea was that Pompey needed a little more seasoning in the minors before returning to Toronto to take over in center field.</p>
<p>Flash forward nearly two full seasons later, and the story in the outfield is now much different. Since joining the team in May 2015, Carrera has been Toronto&#8217;s third most valuable outfielder behind Jose Bautista and Kevin Pillar, despite never owning a permanent starting role. While this mostly speaks to the Jays’ inability to find a permanent left fielder, Carrera has helped mitigate any damage by providing solid value for a fourth outfielder.</p>
<p>This has been especially true in 2017, a year that has seen Carrera hitting .301/.375/.448 and battling Justin Smoak for the Blue Jays batting average crown. Since returning from a right foot fracture on June 27, Carrera has even taken his game to another level, hitting .311/.393/.527 in 86 plate appearances. While his defense hasn&#8217;t been up to snuff, Carrera’s offensive production has made up for any deficiencies in the field to bring him to a 1.4 WARP on the season.</p>
<p>What’s spurring Zeke&#8217;s impressive performance this season? While there clearly isn&#8217;t just one explanation for the change, the first thing that might catch your eye is a sky-high BABIP of .364. Even for a player with good foot speed like Carrera, this is a lofty rate to maintain, meaning that some regression to the mean is likely to follow. What is yet to be seen is how <em>much</em> regression is forthcoming. Carrera has recorded a high BABIP of .328 for his career, and he may be showing signs that he can maintain a higher rate of hits on balls in play in the future.</p>
<p>The biggest indicator of a possible change in Carrera&#8217;s game is his hitting approach. Carrera is using an increasingly selective approach at the plate, taking more pitches both in and out of the zone. His swing rate has dropped by more than five percentage points, from 40.9% in 2016 to 35.5% this year. Zeke&#8217;s new approach at the plate has been allowing him to get on base more &#8211; he is currently following up last year&#8217;s career best walk rate of 8.7% by walking at an even better rate of 9.2% in 2017.</p>
<p>Let&#8217;s delve further into what Carrera is doing at the plate, specifically with how he has fared against the five pitches thrown most often against him:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter size-full wp-image-13156" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/08/Carerra-Pitch-Breakdown.jpg" alt="Carerra Pitch Breakdown" width="363" height="244" /></p>
<p>Carrera has always been a fastball hitter, which is something that hasn&#8217;t changed as he&#8217;s continued to mash the pitch. This season, however, Carerra has been able to handle other offerings that pitchers have sent his way. He has experienced newfound success against the sinker, changeup, and slider, proving to be a tougher out this year than in years past. He has been more selective across the board against all different pitch types and is seeing noticeable contact rate spikes against the changeup and slider.</p>
<p>This new approach from Carrera is a good sign for him moving forward. While his extra base hits are still coming mostly off of the fastball, his ability to turn around other pitches for hits means that pitchers are having to find new ways to get him out. Even the curveball, a pitch that Carrera still has trouble with, is being chased and swung at less often this year. His selective approach is allowing him more opportunities to get on base, which should always be the goal for a speedy player like Carrera.</p>
<p>Since signing in the winter of 2014, Ezequiel Carrera has gone from minor league depth to finding himself a sizable amount of plate appearances for the Blue Jays. He was originally perceived to be a glove first player with some speed, probably stemming from his <a href="https://www.mlb.com/video/carreras-amazing-diving-grab/c-35083905" target="_blank">jaw-dropping catch</a> playing for the Tigers in 2014. But while he has shown he is a fast player, his relatively poor base running awareness and general inability to <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/04/27/coming-up-short-ezequiel-carreras-hidden-problem/" title="Coming Up Short: Ezequiel Carrera’s Hidden Problem" target="_blank">judge the length of his arms</a> has prevented him from impacting the game much on those sides of the ball. Even as he has had some memorable moments in the past, there was little reason to believe he could develop into more than a fourth outfielder.</p>
<p>This season, however, Carrera&#8217;s game seems to be evolving. With his new approach at the plate, Carrera might soon be able to list his hitting as a marketable skill on his resume. He also seems to be learning how to be a valuable base runner, successfully stealing eight bases and only getting caught once. With a lot of uncertainty surrounding the Blue Jays outfield heading into 2018, Carrera might find himself in competition for a starting role. As a speedy outfielder with a .375 OBP, it&#8217;s difficult to not give him a look.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/08/29/ezequiel-carreras-approach-is-evolving/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>Toronto&#8217;s Future Plans Will Have a Lot to Do With Russell Martin</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/20/torontos-future-plans-have-a-lot-to-do-with-russell-martin/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/20/torontos-future-plans-have-a-lot-to-do-with-russell-martin/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 20 Jul 2017 10:40:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Russell Martin]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=12442</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays are currently caught in a tough spot. They continue to boast a core group of players with several years of control remaining: Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, Devon Travis, Joe Biagini, and Kevin Pillar. They also have money tied up long term to some aging players to help complement the young [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays are currently caught in a tough spot. They continue to boast a core group of players with several years of control remaining: Marcus Stroman, Aaron Sanchez, Roberto Osuna, Devon Travis, Joe Biagini, and Kevin Pillar. They also have money tied up long term to some aging players to help complement the young guys, including Troy Tulowitzki, Russell Martin, Kendrys Morales, and J.A. Happ.</p>
<p>While this roster structure of young players and veterans is valuable for contenders, it makes for some tough decisions when the team isn&#8217;t playing at that level. Depending on who you talk to, Toronto&#8217;s struggles this season have been the result of either players underperforming based on their true talent levels, or an aging roster declining to the point that their current on-field performance is what can be expected moving forward. The Blue Jays have decisions to make regarding their future based on what they believe is the reason, and it is not unthinkable that some of the older players on the roster will not be back next season as part of a rebuilding or retooling phase.</p>
<p>Russell Martin&#8217;s play in 2017 could lead to a crossroads for the franchise. After a two-week bout with nerve troubles in his neck and shoulder, Martin has returned from the disabled list hitting .237/.361/.396, bringing his true average up to .257 for the season. To this point, Martin has bounced back from a down year in 2016, and his 1.5 WARP is currently best among Blue Jays position players not named Justin Smoak. He has played well enough that he could be considered a trade candidate, a possibility that should have the Blue Jays contemplating what direction they see this team going.</p>
<p>Part of the reason for Martin’s resurgence can probably be attributed to him just being healthy again. He&#8217;s battled with injuries through much of his tenure with the Blue Jays, and the backup catcher situation (or lack thereof) has forced Martin to play more than the optimal amount for a 34 year old catcher. After recovering from a couple of nagging injuries, we may finally be seeing Martin play at near full health.</p>
<p>However, Martin&#8217;s rejuvenation might also have to do with a change in approach. Martin is currently walking at a rate of 15.6% percent. If he finishes the season at that mark it would be a career high for him and well above his career average of 11.7%. This improved plate discipline appears in Martin’s underlying swing numbers as well. His chase percentage is down to 19% percent, an improvement from last season&#8217;s mark of 21.49%. Meanwhile, he is also swinging at more pitches inside the strike zone, up 3.7% from last year. Martin seems to be hitting with a more focused approach this season, something that he needs to be able to do to sustain his offensive production as he ages.</p>
<p>Martin&#8217;s improved approach at the plate has appeared in his expected production as well. His xWOBA of .349 this season has improved over his .325 mark in 2016, even with a similar batted ball profile. In 2017, the average ball off of Martin&#8217;s bat is leaving at a speed of 89.5 mph at a launch angle of 7.9°, in comparison to last season at 89.1 mph and 9.3°.</p>
<p><em>*An interesting tidbit that has come from Martin&#8217;s new approach at the plate has been its occurrence in high leverage situations. In a small sample of 25 high leverage plate appearances, Martin has worked a walk 10 times. He has only two singles in these same situations, but still sports a wild slash line of .133/.480/.133.*</em></p>
<p>If Martin can sustain this improved offensive performance for the rest of the season, he has the potential to make for an interesting trade piece. After 2017, Martin has 2 years/$40 million left on his contract, which may be a steep price to pay for some teams.  However, the catching market this offseason is thin once again, headlined by Alex Avila, a mightily struggling Johnathan Lucroy, Kurt Suzuki, and Welington Castillo. The Jays would very likely have to eat some money on a deal, but in return could receive some quality prospects to help along a potential rebuild.</p>
<p>Tantalizing as it is, trading Martin is predicated on what the Blue Jays plans are for 2018 and beyond. If they&#8217;re expecting to contend next season, then there is no good reason to deal the backstop. Even as some of his skills have declined with age, he is still an excellent framer, a lauded pitch sequencer, and is showing signs that his offensive production may be able to age gracefully. In addition, there isn&#8217;t a clear successor to Martin at catcher. Now at AA, Danny Jansen is having a fantastic 2017 campaign, but the Blue Jays may be understandably weary about handing the starting job to him next season given his age and relative inexperience. After him, there isn&#8217;t much to speak of in terms of in-house options, and attempting to replace Martin with another catcher &#8211; either in-season or with a free agent in the winter &#8211; would present a challenging task in itself.</p>
<p>As we have seen the last couple of years, Martin&#8217;s value is at its highest on a contending team. If there&#8217;s any player that could be worth more than their production due to intangibles like clubhouse presence and leadership, Martin has proven that he is it. When combining these characteristics with the tools he&#8217;s shown he still has in his rebound 2017 campaign, the possibility of trading Russell Martin presents a considerable juncture moving forward, one whose impact will have far-reaching implications on the future of the franchise.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo: Jonathan Dyer-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/07/20/torontos-future-plans-have-a-lot-to-do-with-russell-martin/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>7</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>MLB Draft: Reports and Videos on Blue Jays Picks in Rounds 6-10</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/13/mlb-draft-reports-and-videos-on-blue-jays-picks-in-rounds-6-10/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/13/mlb-draft-reports-and-videos-on-blue-jays-picks-in-rounds-6-10/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jun 2017 22:53:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB Draft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 MLB Draft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11698</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The Blue Jays selected seven players on day two of the draft, with all seven taken from the college level. Here&#8217;s a look at the picks made in rounds six through ten. Round 6, Pick #189 Brock Lundquist, OF, Long Beach State (video) 6&#8217;0 205lbs DOB: 01/23/1996 The Blue Jays took Brock Lundquist 189th overall, the same [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The Blue Jays selected seven players on day two of the draft, with all seven taken from the college level. Here&#8217;s a look at the picks made in rounds six through ten.</p>
<p><strong>Round 6, Pick #189</strong></p>
<p><em>Brock Lundquist, OF, Long Beach State</em> (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vz6KiRqBm4Q" target="_blank">video</a>)<br />
6&#8217;0 205lbs DOB: 01/23/1996</p>
<p>The Blue Jays took Brock Lundquist 189th overall, the same slot in which <a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/11/what-makes-a-good-blue-jays-draft/" target="_blank">Gord Ash drafted Casey Blake</a> 21 years ago. Lundquist was previously drafted by the Oakland A&#8217;s in the 37th round out of high school in 2014.  Lundquist was Baseball America&#8217;s 391st ranked prospect, and wrote this about his abilities:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;&#8230;Lundquist is physically well-put together and has raw power in his 6-foot, 210-pound frame, but has struggled to get to it consistently in games. He served as Beach&#8217;s leadoff hitter rather than hitting in the middle of the order for much of the season, highlighting that inability. Lundquist has a good bat path and good bat speed, but his pitch recognition is below-average and he can get out on his front side. He is an average runner with an average arm and projects as a fringe-average to average defender in left field, with just enough arm to handle right.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>The junior  hit .277/.388/.429 with four home runs and 10 stolen bases for the Dirtbags this season while sporting an <a href="http://www.presstelegram.com/sports/20170526/long-beach-state-dirtbag-brock-lundquist-is-more-than-a-mustache" target="_blank">80-grade mustache</a>.<a href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Lundquist.jpg"><br />
</a></p>
<p style="text-align: center"><img class="aligncenter size-medium wp-image-11732" src="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2017/06/Lundquist-200x300.jpg" alt="Lundquist" width="200" height="300" /></p>
<p><strong>Round 7, Pick #219</strong></p>
<p><em>Colton Laws, RHP, UNC Charlotte</em> (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KexlhbWVD1w" target="_blank">video</a>)<br />
6&#8217;7 215lbs DOB: 12/20/1995</p>
<p>The 6&#8217;7 right-hander towered over the competition this year, showing a massive improvement over his 2016 campaign. Laws started 15 games, threw 96.1 innings, and managed to strike out 94 hitters while only walking 13, a 7.23 K/BB ratio. Due in no small part to a 27.1 scoreless innings streak early in the year, Laws <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft/analytics-peg-hiura-top-college-performer/#rhBCctkqtDEjJ8pF.97" target="&quot;_blank">ranked 17th</a> of all Division I draft-eligible pitchers in park-adjusted ERA this season.</p>
<p>Laws was ranked 376th by Baseball America:</p>
<p><em>&#8220;Laws was closing the season with a flourish, with 14 strikeouts in his final start in the Conference USA tournament. He&#8217;s a redshirt sophomore who attended East Carolina in fall 2014 but transferred after a coaching change. He&#8217;s athletic enough to have been a star basketball player in high school, scoring more than 1,200 points. Statistically, he dominated in 2017, ranking 16th nationally in ERA (1.87) and in the top 25 with 1.21 walks per nine innings. He&#8217;s similar to Mariners farmhand Max Povse as a rangy 6-foot-8 starter who pounds the strike zone, getting ground balls and swings and misses with an 88-92 mph fastball that can touch higher. His slider and changeup have made progress in 2017, and while neither grades as above-average presently, he keeps both pitches down.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><strong>Round 8, Pick #249</strong></p>
<p><em>Kacy Clemens, 1B, Texas</em><br />
6&#8217;2 195lbs DOB: 07/27/1994</p>
<p>In drafting Kacy Clemens, the Blue Jays continued their quest to field a team of the kids of former major league all-stars. While The Rocket&#8217;s son used to be a pitcher like his father, arm troubles have caused him to switch to first base full-time. Starring at Texas <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sfvxf61YAPY" target="_blank">with his brother, Kody</a>, he has taken this switch to the other side of the ball in stride, hitting .305/.414/.532 with 12 home runs. There isn&#8217;t much in the way of scouting reports for Clemens as a hitter, given his recent transition to first base. Nonetheless, his great stats and <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9gfIqiiDjkM" target="_blank">some impressive web gems</a> on defense make this pick a rather intriguing one, as Clemens has the potential to succeed as a late-blooming first baseman.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Kacy Clemens is going to take plus (maybe ++) 1B defense, great makeup, and an intriguing bat with some pop into pro ball. <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/HookEm?src=hash">#HookEm</a> <a href="https://twitter.com/hashtag/BlueJays?src=hash">#BlueJays</a></p>
<p>&mdash; Dustin McComas (@DMcComasOB) <a href="https://twitter.com/DMcComasOB/status/874739592632643585">June 13, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p><strong>Round 9, Pick #279</strong></p>
<p><em> Zach Logue, LHP, Kentucky</em> (<a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xyaEXrpIbxk" target="_blank">video</a>)<br />
6&#8217;0 165lbs DOB: 04/23/1996</p>
<p>Zach Logue has flipped back and forth between the bullpen and the rotation over his career at Kentucky, pitching to mixed results along the way. After earning a 2.68 ERA in 2016 splitting time as a reliever and a starter, he pitched to a 4.84 ERA this season primarily pitching out of the rotation. These numbers might not tell the whole story, however &#8211; Logue posted a nice ratio of 88 strikeouts to 25 walks on the season, and a couple of draft experts praised the Blue Jays for the pick:</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Logue a nice get by Blue Jays solid lefty, guy I hoped to catch this year and strong get by Blue Jays especially in 9th</p>
<p>&mdash; jeff ellis (@jeffMLBdraft) <a href="https://twitter.com/jeffMLBdraft/status/874748310384463873">June 13, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">I don&#39;t think I&#39;ve even moderately disliked a single Blue Jays pick this year. Loving all of it. Just took Zach Logue in the 9th.</p>
<p>&mdash; Justin Perline (@jperline) <a href="https://twitter.com/jperline/status/874748025742249987">June 13, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>Here is a scouting report from Baseball America, who ranked Logue 258th overall: <em>&#8220;After an apprenticeship in Kentucky&#8217;s bullpen, Logue became a reliable starter as a junior, posting a 7-5, 4.84 year, showing the ability to generate strikeouts with his slider, but also showing a propensity to give up hard contact when he caught too much of the plate. Scouts see him moving back to the bullpen as a pro, a role they saw him excel in last summer in the Cape Cod League. Logue&#8217;s 87-90 mph fastball and fringe-average slider both might play up more in short stints as a matchup lefty.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><strong>Round 10, Pick #309</strong></p>
<p><em>Justin Dillon, RHP, Cal State Sacramento</em><br />
6&#8217;3 220lbs DOB: 09/05/1993</p>
<p>Dillon made headlines throwing Cal State Sacramento&#8217;s <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_Oxm29J2BMo" target="_blank">first ever no-hitter</a> in early 2017. This start was the highlight of an all-around solid season for the 23 year old, who pitched to an ERA of 3.36 in 19 games with 108 strikeouts and 26 walks. He was previously drafted out of high school in 2012 by the Colorado Rockies in the 39th round.</p>
<blockquote class="twitter-tweet" data-width="550"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">Good 10th rnd pick by Toronto in Sac St RHP Justin Dillon. Big frame, decent arsenal. Innings eater.</p>
<p>&mdash; Bill Mitchell (@billazbbphotog) <a href="https://twitter.com/billazbbphotog/status/874756962843361280">June 13, 2017</a></p></blockquote>
<p><script async src="//platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script></p>
<p>And with that, the Blue Jays have finished their their selections on day two of the draft. Rounds 11-40 will continue tomorrow.</p>
<p><em>Lead Photo © Butch Dill-USA TODAY Sports</em></p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/13/mlb-draft-reports-and-videos-on-blue-jays-picks-in-rounds-6-10/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
		<item>
		<title>MLB Draft: Blue Jays Select C Riley Adams with the 99th Pick</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/13/mlb-draft-blue-jays-select-riley-adams-with-99th-pick/</link>
		<comments>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/13/mlb-draft-blue-jays-select-riley-adams-with-99th-pick/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Jun 2017 17:49:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Andrew Munn]]></dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Articles]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[MLB Draft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[2017 MLB Draft]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Toronto Blue Jays]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=11607</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Toronto made three selections on day one of the draft, taking high floor middle-infielder Logan Warmouth, flame throwing right-handed pitcher Nate Pearson, and former Little League World Series star Hagen Danner. On day two, the Blue Jays used their first selection of the day on 6&#8217;5, 215 lbs catcher Riley Adams 99th overall. Adams is a [&#8230;]]]></description>
				<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Toronto made three selections on day one of the draft, taking high floor middle-infielder Logan Warmouth, flame throwing right-handed pitcher Nate Pearson, and former Little League World Series star Hagen Danner. On day two, the Blue Jays used their first selection of the day on 6&#8217;5, 215 lbs catcher Riley Adams 99th overall.</p>
<p>Adams is a junior at the University of San Diego, where he hit .312 with 13 home runs and 47 RBI in 54 games on his way to the 2017 WCC Player of the Year award. Adams ranked as the 72nd best prospect in this year&#8217;s draft class by <a href="http://www.baseballamerica.com/draft-preview/" target="_blank">Baseball America</a>, 73rd by <a href="http://m.mlb.com/prospects/2017?list=draft" target="_blank">MLB Pipeline</a>, and 89th by <a href="http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7154" target="&quot;">Keith Law</a></p>
<p>Now, to the scouting reports. <strong>Here are the grades from MLB Pipeline for Adams:</strong></p>
<p>Hit: 45 | Power: 50 | Run: 30 | Arm: 50 | Field: 50 | Overall: 45</p>
<p><strong>Baseball America wrote this about the Jays 99th overall selection:</strong></p>
<p><em>&#8220;&#8230;Adams is a big-league bodied catcher at 6-foot-4, 225 pounds and uses his strength well on both sides of the ball. His raw arm strength grades as plus and earns an occasional 70 on the 20-to-80 scouting scale, while at the plate he possesses big power to all fields and enough feel to hit to get to it. He has had swing-and-miss issues to go along with his power production. Defensively Adams&#8217; hands, receiving and blocking are well below-average and need significant work. Some evaluators believe those skills can improve to be adequate in the context of everything else Adams provides, but others think he will eventually have to move positions, either to first base or an outfield corner. &#8230;Adams&#8217; size, power and pedigree will make him one of the top catchers off the board.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><strong>Here is the scouting report from MLB Pipeline:</strong></p>
<p><em>&#8220;Adams was a solid catching prospect coming out of high school, a very flexible athletic backstop who is a black belt in karate. While some worry that he&#8217;s lost some of that behind the plate, some success with his bat, coupled with the usual dearth of college catching, should help this University of San Diego backstop come June.</em></p>
<p><em>A Cape Cod League All-Star, Adams has shown some ability at the plate and he&#8217;s increased his power output in each of his three years as a starter at San Diego. Some of that has come because he&#8217;s a good guess hitter and pulls balls out of the park, but some scouts feel he has become too spread out at the plate with his Kris Bryant-like stance. In the past, he has shown solid defensive skills and a solid arm, though reports out of the Cape and this spring about his defense have not been overwhelmingly positive.</em></p>
<p><em>Adams is big and strong; the raw power is legitimate. The team that feels it can get him back to tapping into it with a better setup at the plate, not to mention helping him refine his defensive play, will take him off the board in the top three rounds.&#8221;</em></p>
<p><strong>And Keith Law had this to say about Adams:</strong></p>
<p><em>&#8220;Adams is a solid catch-and-throw receiver with some pop, but there are questions about his contact skills. He has been seen a ton this spring and probably goes on Day 1.&#8221;</em></p>
<p>MLB Pipeline&#8217;s scouting video featuring Adams is shown below:</p>
<p style="text-align: center"><iframe src="http://m.mlb.com/shared/video/embed/embed.html?content_id=1324211583&amp;topic_id=210960834&amp;width=400&amp;height=224&amp;property=mlb" width="400" height="224" ></iframe></p>
<p>More footage of him can be found <a href="https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qgw-uv3zQMw" target="blank">here</a>.</p>
<p>The slot value for the 99th pick is $542,400. The Blue Jays will pick next at 129th overall in the fourth round.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
			<wfw:commentRss>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/06/13/mlb-draft-blue-jays-select-riley-adams-with-99th-pick/feed/</wfw:commentRss>
		<slash:comments>0</slash:comments>
		</item>
	</channel>
</rss>
