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	<title>Comments on: Blue Jays Send J.A. Happ to Yankees for 2B/3B Brandon Drury and OF Billy McKinney</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/26/trade-blue-jays-send-j-a-happ-to-yankees-for-2b3b-brandon-drury-and-of-billy-mckinney/</link>
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		<title>By: Matt</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/07/26/trade-blue-jays-send-j-a-happ-to-yankees-for-2b3b-brandon-drury-and-of-billy-mckinney/#comment-125348</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 03 Aug 2018 19:59:58 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=16425#comment-125348</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s been a week and I&#039;m still mad about this shitty trade. I&#039;ve thought about it quote a lot and there are a number of reasons why I hate this trade

1. He&#039;s a replacement level bat

In 1,000PA with Arizona his wRC+ was 93 - that&#039;s below average and roughly a replacement level player. He&#039;s had vision problem that may have lead to this low level of production and after this was corrected in 2018 he put up a wRC+ of 144 at AAA. Unfortunately that was entirely driven by a BABIP of 0.393 so is unsustainable. His walk rate did increase from a career 6% to 14% in AAA, maybe that is showing signs that he&#039;s improving but if that were really true, wouldn&#039;t the Yankees have brought him up to take the place of Neil Walker? Granted, some people do have a sudden late(ish) career improvement (Donaldson, Bautista etc.) but it&#039;s much more likely that he won&#039;t.

2. He has no significant defensive value

He&#039;s a natural 3B but most of his playing time has come at 2B so look at both of these. Neither is a premium defensive position so that&#039;s not a strength. For 2B his career UZR/150 is -2.6 and at 3B it&#039;s -9.8. Both of these have sample size issues but there&#039;s no scout saying that he passes the eye test as a defensive wizard so I can believe these numbers. In short, he&#039;s a below average fielder, always has been and is now 26 so there&#039;s no reason to think he&#039;s going to get better.

3. He&#039;s a bench player, those are available other ways

Because he is below average both offensively and defensively his only position on the team is as a bench player to come in and fill in for rest, injury etc and every team needs a player like that. They typically have a high floor &amp; low ceiling and you can get that player from free agency every year. In 2017 Steve Pearce was available at $6.5M per year for 2 years, 2018 had Eduardo Nunez at $4M per year for 2 years in the 2 most recent off seasons. Why spend trade capital on something you can get easily through free agency when you can spend it on prospects who aren&#039;t typically available? Makes no sense.

4. We already had bench players

Is Drury much better than Solarte? Not on past performance (almost identical wRC+ and UZR/150) and, as I&#039;ve argued above, not likely on future performance either. We already had one Solarte, why trade to get another one? Drury is under control for 2 more years at a lower salary but so what? Years 2021 and 2022 are so far away that getting a bench bat is not important yet and saving $12M in 2019 and 2020 isn&#039;t going to help much either. So say that you play Drury, you like him better than Solarte and trade Yangervis in the off season. How much is he worth? He&#039;s a below average hitter and below average fielder with no defensive flexibility on a 2 year contract for $13.5M. That&#039;s not getting you anything on the trade market, certainly nothing game changing. Say you trade Travis instead, you might get something because he&#039;s cheaper but you still only get 2 years of control so the return still won&#039;t be much.

5. He has no clear position on the roster

You have to fill 5 spots with infielders (3B, SS, 2B, 2 bench spots) not counting 1B and DH that Drury doesn&#039;t have the bat to play.
2019 - Vlad, Tulo, Bo, Gurriel/Solarte/Drury/Diaz/Travis
2020 - Vlad, Tulo, Bo, Gurriel/Solarte/Drury/Diaz/Travis/Biggio
2021 - Vlad, Bo, Gurriel, Drury/Diaz/Biggio/Smith/Groshans/Warmoth
He only has a position as a bench bat at best, a AAA position at worst. Why trade for someone who has no real future value? No, you can&#039;t count on Tulo but when he gets injured Drury can&#039;t play SS anyway so it&#039;s a moot point. No, not all of those prospects will become real players but there are enough of them that you should expect one or two at least.




So to summarize - Drury has a below average bat and a similar glove plus he doesn&#039;t look like getting better with either. You can get these guys in free agency every year for not much money and we already had one of them. Getting him allows you to trade someone else who has no real value. He clogs up the roster in future years because all our top level prospects play in his position.

It&#039;s objectively a terrible trade both now and in the short &amp; long term future. Yes, Happ should have been traded but for lottery ticket prospects instead. At least they have a small chance of positively affecting the Jays team, Drury has minimal chance of doing that. Best case scenario is that Drury is a solid bench bat who is a marginal upgrade on freely available talent]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s been a week and I&#8217;m still mad about this shitty trade. I&#8217;ve thought about it quote a lot and there are a number of reasons why I hate this trade</p>
<p>1. He&#8217;s a replacement level bat</p>
<p>In 1,000PA with Arizona his wRC+ was 93 &#8211; that&#8217;s below average and roughly a replacement level player. He&#8217;s had vision problem that may have lead to this low level of production and after this was corrected in 2018 he put up a wRC+ of 144 at AAA. Unfortunately that was entirely driven by a BABIP of 0.393 so is unsustainable. His walk rate did increase from a career 6% to 14% in AAA, maybe that is showing signs that he&#8217;s improving but if that were really true, wouldn&#8217;t the Yankees have brought him up to take the place of Neil Walker? Granted, some people do have a sudden late(ish) career improvement (Donaldson, Bautista etc.) but it&#8217;s much more likely that he won&#8217;t.</p>
<p>2. He has no significant defensive value</p>
<p>He&#8217;s a natural 3B but most of his playing time has come at 2B so look at both of these. Neither is a premium defensive position so that&#8217;s not a strength. For 2B his career UZR/150 is -2.6 and at 3B it&#8217;s -9.8. Both of these have sample size issues but there&#8217;s no scout saying that he passes the eye test as a defensive wizard so I can believe these numbers. In short, he&#8217;s a below average fielder, always has been and is now 26 so there&#8217;s no reason to think he&#8217;s going to get better.</p>
<p>3. He&#8217;s a bench player, those are available other ways</p>
<p>Because he is below average both offensively and defensively his only position on the team is as a bench player to come in and fill in for rest, injury etc and every team needs a player like that. They typically have a high floor &amp; low ceiling and you can get that player from free agency every year. In 2017 Steve Pearce was available at $6.5M per year for 2 years, 2018 had Eduardo Nunez at $4M per year for 2 years in the 2 most recent off seasons. Why spend trade capital on something you can get easily through free agency when you can spend it on prospects who aren&#8217;t typically available? Makes no sense.</p>
<p>4. We already had bench players</p>
<p>Is Drury much better than Solarte? Not on past performance (almost identical wRC+ and UZR/150) and, as I&#8217;ve argued above, not likely on future performance either. We already had one Solarte, why trade to get another one? Drury is under control for 2 more years at a lower salary but so what? Years 2021 and 2022 are so far away that getting a bench bat is not important yet and saving $12M in 2019 and 2020 isn&#8217;t going to help much either. So say that you play Drury, you like him better than Solarte and trade Yangervis in the off season. How much is he worth? He&#8217;s a below average hitter and below average fielder with no defensive flexibility on a 2 year contract for $13.5M. That&#8217;s not getting you anything on the trade market, certainly nothing game changing. Say you trade Travis instead, you might get something because he&#8217;s cheaper but you still only get 2 years of control so the return still won&#8217;t be much.</p>
<p>5. He has no clear position on the roster</p>
<p>You have to fill 5 spots with infielders (3B, SS, 2B, 2 bench spots) not counting 1B and DH that Drury doesn&#8217;t have the bat to play.<br />
2019 &#8211; Vlad, Tulo, Bo, Gurriel/Solarte/Drury/Diaz/Travis<br />
2020 &#8211; Vlad, Tulo, Bo, Gurriel/Solarte/Drury/Diaz/Travis/Biggio<br />
2021 &#8211; Vlad, Bo, Gurriel, Drury/Diaz/Biggio/Smith/Groshans/Warmoth<br />
He only has a position as a bench bat at best, a AAA position at worst. Why trade for someone who has no real future value? No, you can&#8217;t count on Tulo but when he gets injured Drury can&#8217;t play SS anyway so it&#8217;s a moot point. No, not all of those prospects will become real players but there are enough of them that you should expect one or two at least.</p>
<p>So to summarize &#8211; Drury has a below average bat and a similar glove plus he doesn&#8217;t look like getting better with either. You can get these guys in free agency every year for not much money and we already had one of them. Getting him allows you to trade someone else who has no real value. He clogs up the roster in future years because all our top level prospects play in his position.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s objectively a terrible trade both now and in the short &amp; long term future. Yes, Happ should have been traded but for lottery ticket prospects instead. At least they have a small chance of positively affecting the Jays team, Drury has minimal chance of doing that. Best case scenario is that Drury is a solid bench bat who is a marginal upgrade on freely available talent</p>
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