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	<title>Comments on: Free Agency Not Looking Like Freedom: A Cool Winter’s Effect on a Donaldson Extension</title>
	<atom:link href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/</link>
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		<title>By: K Shaw</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79804</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[K Shaw]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 19 Jan 2018 14:25:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79804</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ok sure. But the &quot;10 teams have removed themselves from free agency&quot; effect is a separate issue; that would apply regardless of the size and depth of the free agent class.

My point is simply that--ceteris paribus--demand and supply shift together so there&#039;s no reason to think there is a correlation between price and cohort size. Any fluctuation in a player&#039;s earning potential from offseason to offseason must be due to other vagaries of the market.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok sure. But the &#8220;10 teams have removed themselves from free agency&#8221; effect is a separate issue; that would apply regardless of the size and depth of the free agent class.</p>
<p>My point is simply that&#8211;ceteris paribus&#8211;demand and supply shift together so there&#8217;s no reason to think there is a correlation between price and cohort size. Any fluctuation in a player&#8217;s earning potential from offseason to offseason must be due to other vagaries of the market.</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle Matte</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79700</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jan 2018 18:03:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79700</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hey K Shaw, it won&#039;t let me reply to your comment directly so hopefully you&#039;ll find my reply down here.

Hypothetically, yes. Every free agent creates an empty roster spot on their old team to be filled. That&#039;s not reflective of reality, however, because those 10 teams not involving themselves in free agency are still releasing free agents into the pool. For example, if a team like Baltimore or Minnesota can&#039;t re-sign Machado or Dozier, they&#039;re not replacing that guy with a different expensive free agent. They&#039;re going to replace them internally and for cheap with someone already in their system.

This imbalance is why we&#039;ve seen the game shift towards younger players in the last five years as players in their mid-to-late 30&#039;s can&#039;t outproduce the difference in salary between them and the typical 0-3 guy.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey K Shaw, it won&#8217;t let me reply to your comment directly so hopefully you&#8217;ll find my reply down here.</p>
<p>Hypothetically, yes. Every free agent creates an empty roster spot on their old team to be filled. That&#8217;s not reflective of reality, however, because those 10 teams not involving themselves in free agency are still releasing free agents into the pool. For example, if a team like Baltimore or Minnesota can&#8217;t re-sign Machado or Dozier, they&#8217;re not replacing that guy with a different expensive free agent. They&#8217;re going to replace them internally and for cheap with someone already in their system.</p>
<p>This imbalance is why we&#8217;ve seen the game shift towards younger players in the last five years as players in their mid-to-late 30&#8217;s can&#8217;t outproduce the difference in salary between them and the typical 0-3 guy.</p>
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		<title>By: K Shaw</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79693</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[K Shaw]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jan 2018 17:29:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79693</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ok, sure, but for every player that reaches free agency there is now a roster hole that needs to be filled. So supply and demand shift together, not independently, keeping the equilibrium price roughly the same. Lots of free agents =&gt; lots of needs; few free agents =&gt; few needs. 

I think price might vary from year to year, but for other reasons, reasons that generate independent shifts in either supply or demand. These other factors, whatever they are, are probably more influential in years with small free agent classes.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ok, sure, but for every player that reaches free agency there is now a roster hole that needs to be filled. So supply and demand shift together, not independently, keeping the equilibrium price roughly the same. Lots of free agents =&gt; lots of needs; few free agents =&gt; few needs. </p>
<p>I think price might vary from year to year, but for other reasons, reasons that generate independent shifts in either supply or demand. These other factors, whatever they are, are probably more influential in years with small free agent classes.</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle Matte</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79672</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jan 2018 13:47:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79672</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Sure. Generally, any time there is significant increase in the supply of a commodity within a market, a surplus is created. With so many available and interchangeable options, economic surpluses lead to a decrease in the buyers&#039; willingness to pay, which subsequently leads to an expected decrease in price.

In the baseball landscape, free agents are those commodities. When so many very good free agents become available at once, the market becomes flooded. This issue is doubled down upon by the fact that, as Passan notes, at least 10 teams in baseball have removed themselves from free agency given the lack of incentive to win 75 games instead of 65.

Where 5 years ago you&#039;d have 30 teams competing for the top 5-10 free agents, it&#039;s now 20 teams. And because the 2019 class happens to be so deep, those 20 teams will be competing for the top 15-20 free agents. It becomes somewhat of an inverted dynamic. Where the elite bat once had 5 or 6 teams bidding for his services and raising his price, teams will now have low-ball offers out to 4 or 5 free agents at a given time. This gives them the ability to throw take-it-or-leave-it ultimatums around to see who blinks first. They may not get the first choice if another team overbids, but they can be reasonably confident they&#039;re coming away with someone because there&#039;s only so many seats available.

Hopefully that helps?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Sure. Generally, any time there is significant increase in the supply of a commodity within a market, a surplus is created. With so many available and interchangeable options, economic surpluses lead to a decrease in the buyers&#8217; willingness to pay, which subsequently leads to an expected decrease in price.</p>
<p>In the baseball landscape, free agents are those commodities. When so many very good free agents become available at once, the market becomes flooded. This issue is doubled down upon by the fact that, as Passan notes, at least 10 teams in baseball have removed themselves from free agency given the lack of incentive to win 75 games instead of 65.</p>
<p>Where 5 years ago you&#8217;d have 30 teams competing for the top 5-10 free agents, it&#8217;s now 20 teams. And because the 2019 class happens to be so deep, those 20 teams will be competing for the top 15-20 free agents. It becomes somewhat of an inverted dynamic. Where the elite bat once had 5 or 6 teams bidding for his services and raising his price, teams will now have low-ball offers out to 4 or 5 free agents at a given time. This gives them the ability to throw take-it-or-leave-it ultimatums around to see who blinks first. They may not get the first choice if another team overbids, but they can be reasonably confident they&#8217;re coming away with someone because there&#8217;s only so many seats available.</p>
<p>Hopefully that helps?</p>
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		<title>By: K Shaw</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79631</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[K Shaw]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 18 Jan 2018 03:59:07 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79631</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m not sure I understand why the depth and size of the 2018-19 class should affect Donaldson&#039;s earning potential? Can you explain.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not sure I understand why the depth and size of the 2018-19 class should affect Donaldson&#8217;s earning potential? Can you explain.</p>
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		<title>By: Jon Shell</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79608</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Jon Shell]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jan 2018 23:20:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79608</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is a terrific out-of-the-box article.  Thanks for writing it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is a terrific out-of-the-box article.  Thanks for writing it.</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle Matte</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79569</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jan 2018 15:20:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79569</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#039;s not at all a given. He probably wants more. The whole premise of the article is that if he&#039;s seeing comparable players struggling to find that kind of money this winter, and if he realizes that, at best he&#039;ll be the 4th or 5th most desirable free agent next winter, it COULD be about as good as it&#039;s gonna get. Or it might not be. We really don&#039;t know. I think six months ago everyone was certain that he&#039;d make bank in free agency, but what is happening this winter is unprecedented and groundbreaking, and it might be enough for him to reconsider.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s not at all a given. He probably wants more. The whole premise of the article is that if he&#8217;s seeing comparable players struggling to find that kind of money this winter, and if he realizes that, at best he&#8217;ll be the 4th or 5th most desirable free agent next winter, it COULD be about as good as it&#8217;s gonna get. Or it might not be. We really don&#8217;t know. I think six months ago everyone was certain that he&#8217;d make bank in free agency, but what is happening this winter is unprecedented and groundbreaking, and it might be enough for him to reconsider.</p>
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		<title>By: Kyle Matte</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79568</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jan 2018 15:15:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79568</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[If you haven&#039;t read Passan&#039;s piece, I&#039;d strongly recommend that you do.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>If you haven&#8217;t read Passan&#8217;s piece, I&#8217;d strongly recommend that you do.</p>
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		<title>By: Arjon</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79566</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jan 2018 15:14:04 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79566</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It hardly seems a given that JD would take a deal in the 4/$110M range. It seems reasonable enough, but why would a player who is so competitive by nature not feel to some degree that salary is another form of competition for him to try to win, whether via an extension or by testing the open market?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It hardly seems a given that JD would take a deal in the 4/$110M range. It seems reasonable enough, but why would a player who is so competitive by nature not feel to some degree that salary is another form of competition for him to try to win, whether via an extension or by testing the open market?</p>
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		<title>By: K Shaw</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2018/01/17/free-agency-no-longer-looks-like-freedom-a-cool-winters-effect-on-a-donaldson-extension/#comment-79565</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[K Shaw]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 17 Jan 2018 14:59:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14936#comment-79565</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Also, have any of these writers spouting off conspiracy theories about collusion taken even 5 minutes to think about how extremely difficult it would be for 30 teams to actually collude in 2018, and not be immediately found out?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also, have any of these writers spouting off conspiracy theories about collusion taken even 5 minutes to think about how extremely difficult it would be for 30 teams to actually collude in 2018, and not be immediately found out?</p>
]]></content:encoded>
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