<?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><rss version="2.0"
	xmlns:content="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/content/"
	xmlns:dc="http://purl.org/dc/elements/1.1/"
	xmlns:atom="http://www.w3.org/2005/Atom"
	xmlns:sy="http://purl.org/rss/1.0/modules/syndication/"
	
	>
<channel>
	<title>Comments on: What Happened To Marco Estrada&#8217;s Changeup in 2017?</title>
	<atom:link href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
	<lastBuildDate>Sun, 09 Dec 2018 23:15:57 +0000</lastBuildDate>
	<sy:updatePeriod>hourly</sy:updatePeriod>
	<sy:updateFrequency>1</sy:updateFrequency>
	<generator>http://wordpress.org/?v=4.1.1</generator>
	<item>
		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/#comment-71992</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 11 Dec 2017 02:28:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14443#comment-71992</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The months where his changeup was worst (June and August) were also the months where he threw it the least frequently. He was 28.4% in June, 25.5% in August, over 30% every other month. 

http://bit.ly/2iPDJ80]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The months where his changeup was worst (June and August) were also the months where he threw it the least frequently. He was 28.4% in June, 25.5% in August, over 30% every other month. </p>
<p><a href="http://bit.ly/2iPDJ80" rel="nofollow">http://bit.ly/2iPDJ80</a></p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Terry Mesmer</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/#comment-71913</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Terry Mesmer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 10 Dec 2017 21:52:32 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14443#comment-71913</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&gt; He did use [the changup] a bit more often, but only negligibly so

You should make a chart plotting 2017 monthly CH usage versus results. I suspect there were spikes in CH usage.

I recall Estrada strugging through a start and he was throwing pretty much all changes at one desperate point. Hitters were laying off balls and sitting on strikes. Gibbons went to the mound and chewed him out. Estrada then threw seven or eight fastballs in a row.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&gt; He did use [the changup] a bit more often, but only negligibly so</p>
<p>You should make a chart plotting 2017 monthly CH usage versus results. I suspect there were spikes in CH usage.</p>
<p>I recall Estrada strugging through a start and he was throwing pretty much all changes at one desperate point. Hitters were laying off balls and sitting on strikes. Gibbons went to the mound and chewed him out. Estrada then threw seven or eight fastballs in a row.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Arjon</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/#comment-70406</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 06 Dec 2017 14:47:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14443#comment-70406</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Yeah, I don&#039;t think hitters step to the plate thinking &quot;he threw 29% changeups last year&quot;, but otoh, it doesn&#039;t seem out of the question that as he has continued to throw ~30% year after year, hitters didn&#039;t immediately start guessing at that rate, and instead, have tended to increase how often they sit on it because the body of data supporting such a guess has gotten larger and larger.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Yeah, I don&#8217;t think hitters step to the plate thinking &#8220;he threw 29% changeups last year&#8221;, but otoh, it doesn&#8217;t seem out of the question that as he has continued to throw ~30% year after year, hitters didn&#8217;t immediately start guessing at that rate, and instead, have tended to increase how often they sit on it because the body of data supporting such a guess has gotten larger and larger.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/#comment-70170</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Dec 2017 21:37:24 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14443#comment-70170</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Also, I don&#039;t think hitters bring that kind of tendency data to the plate with them and guess pitches based on the information, though I could be wrong.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Also, I don&#8217;t think hitters bring that kind of tendency data to the plate with them and guess pitches based on the information, though I could be wrong.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/#comment-70168</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Dec 2017 21:33:52 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14443#comment-70168</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[You&#039;re asking a different question than Gene. You&#039;re talking about hitter expectation based on past usage. But in reality, Estrada has been between 28-30% each year between 2014-2016, before the 32% this year.

Because of that, there&#039;s no reason for hitter expectations to have changed dramatically from last year to this, and thus no reason for that to be even close to the main reason for the struggles with the pitch. So while your hypothetical would make sense, it doesn&#039;t really track with any likelihood of matching reality.

In addition, his usage in the two months where the pitch was at its worst, he actually threw it less often (28.4% in June, 25.5% in August) than any other month. ]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;re asking a different question than Gene. You&#8217;re talking about hitter expectation based on past usage. But in reality, Estrada has been between 28-30% each year between 2014-2016, before the 32% this year.</p>
<p>Because of that, there&#8217;s no reason for hitter expectations to have changed dramatically from last year to this, and thus no reason for that to be even close to the main reason for the struggles with the pitch. So while your hypothetical would make sense, it doesn&#8217;t really track with any likelihood of matching reality.</p>
<p>In addition, his usage in the two months where the pitch was at its worst, he actually threw it less often (28.4% in June, 25.5% in August) than any other month. </p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Arjon</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/#comment-70159</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjon]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Dec 2017 21:11:01 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14443#comment-70159</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Maybe just looking at the %s omits the element of batter expectations. If hitters were looking for it more often in 2017, it would have required them to adjust to it less often. 

Using hypothetical guessing rates in a simplified model, if hitters guessed change 20% of the time in 2016, they&#039;d have been been right on 5.8% of his pitches (29% x 20%). If they realized he threw 29% in 2016 and upped their guess rate to 30% in 2017, they&#039;d have been correct 9.6% of the time. 

The absolute absolute difference is only 3.8%, but the relative difference is much greater at 65.5%.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Maybe just looking at the %s omits the element of batter expectations. If hitters were looking for it more often in 2017, it would have required them to adjust to it less often. </p>
<p>Using hypothetical guessing rates in a simplified model, if hitters guessed change 20% of the time in 2016, they&#8217;d have been been right on 5.8% of his pitches (29% x 20%). If they realized he threw 29% in 2016 and upped their guess rate to 30% in 2017, they&#8217;d have been correct 9.6% of the time. </p>
<p>The absolute absolute difference is only 3.8%, but the relative difference is much greater at 65.5%.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/#comment-70092</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Dec 2017 16:08:00 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14443#comment-70092</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[He did use it a bit more often, but only negligibly so (32% vs 29% in 2016 and 28% in 2015). That&#039;s not nearly enough of a change to cause that kind of difference in success.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>He did use it a bit more often, but only negligibly so (32% vs 29% in 2016 and 28% in 2015). That&#8217;s not nearly enough of a change to cause that kind of difference in success.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
	<item>
		<title>By: gene</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/12/04/what-happened-to-marco-estradas-changeup-in-2017/#comment-70089</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[gene]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Dec 2017 15:58:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14443#comment-70089</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I think he was using it to often and the hitters were sitting on as he used it every batter.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think he was using it to often and the hitters were sitting on as he used it every batter.</p>
]]></content:encoded>
	</item>
</channel>
</rss>
