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	<title>Comments on: Shohei Ohtani, Bo Bichette, and a Window Into the Minds of Blue Jays Fans</title>
	<atom:link href="http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/feed/" rel="self" type="application/rss+xml" />
	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64681</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 20 Nov 2017 00:42:56 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64681</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We actually have no idea what specifically he wants out of his next team. Some rumours have him wanting a team that he can build up, others have him wanting only to go to a team that can hit, one even has him wanting to go to Arizona because of some coach. But in truth, we actually have no idea what his motivations are and won&#039;t until he signs.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We actually have no idea what specifically he wants out of his next team. Some rumours have him wanting a team that he can build up, others have him wanting only to go to a team that can hit, one even has him wanting to go to Arizona because of some coach. But in truth, we actually have no idea what his motivations are and won&#8217;t until he signs.</p>
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		<title>By: RH</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64663</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[RH]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 19 Nov 2017 23:02:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64663</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Ohtani’s Decision to come over now seems to include some motivation to be in a major market and likley with a competitive playoff team. That would suggest Chicago, New York or Los Angeles would best fit the bill. By coming now he is already taking a lower salary so if he really wants a DH opportunity then it is an AL team.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Ohtani’s Decision to come over now seems to include some motivation to be in a major market and likley with a competitive playoff team. That would suggest Chicago, New York or Los Angeles would best fit the bill. By coming now he is already taking a lower salary so if he really wants a DH opportunity then it is an AL team.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64339</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:33:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64339</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I almost can&#039;t tell if you&#039;re being serious there (because the sons of MLB etc seems very tongue-in-cheek), but I really dislike that argument. What exactly does Shohei Ohtani have to do with the failures of Hideki Irabu? 

It&#039;s also an entirely false narrative. Most Japanese pitchers other than he and Igawa (who was never supposed to be more than a back end starter anyway according to most scouts) who came over with any fanfare have done just fine. Nomo, Tanaka, Kuroda, Iwakuma, and Darvish were all good to great. Matsuzaka, while ultimately a bit of a bust, was fine too until he got hurt and lost his stuff. Heck, even Kaz Ishii was useful. On the relief side, Otsuka, Sasaki, Uehara, Hasegawa, and Okajima have all been excellent. 

Like Americans, Dominicans, and Venezuelans, there are excellent players from Japan and those who are less so. And none of them (save for &lt;em&gt;perhaps&lt;/em&gt; Darvish in his youth) had the stuff that Ohtani has.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I almost can&#8217;t tell if you&#8217;re being serious there (because the sons of MLB etc seems very tongue-in-cheek), but I really dislike that argument. What exactly does Shohei Ohtani have to do with the failures of Hideki Irabu? </p>
<p>It&#8217;s also an entirely false narrative. Most Japanese pitchers other than he and Igawa (who was never supposed to be more than a back end starter anyway according to most scouts) who came over with any fanfare have done just fine. Nomo, Tanaka, Kuroda, Iwakuma, and Darvish were all good to great. Matsuzaka, while ultimately a bit of a bust, was fine too until he got hurt and lost his stuff. Heck, even Kaz Ishii was useful. On the relief side, Otsuka, Sasaki, Uehara, Hasegawa, and Okajima have all been excellent. </p>
<p>Like Americans, Dominicans, and Venezuelans, there are excellent players from Japan and those who are less so. And none of them (save for <em>perhaps</em> Darvish in his youth) had the stuff that Ohtani has.</p>
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		<title>By: Gary73</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64336</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gary73]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Nov 2017 22:11:53 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64336</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I dunno. Look at the track record of Japanese stars migrating to mlb vs that of sons of successful major leaguers who bat .350+ at A or better. I bet we regret dumping Bo or Vlad.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I dunno. Look at the track record of Japanese stars migrating to mlb vs that of sons of successful major leaguers who bat .350+ at A or better. I bet we regret dumping Bo or Vlad.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64289</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Nov 2017 18:45:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64289</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I suppose you&#039;d basically be looking at the Singleton contract +10-20M or so as a comparable that the league would allow, though it probably wouldn&#039;t be wise for Ohtani to sign that since he could pretty easily make $40+M in arbitration if he&#039;s as good as we think he is. Either way, I think trying to handicap his landing spot is definitely not the right way to go (and I think you&#039;re saying you agree). That makes him a Jays long shot (as he is with any other team), but nothing worse than that.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I suppose you&#8217;d basically be looking at the Singleton contract +10-20M or so as a comparable that the league would allow, though it probably wouldn&#8217;t be wise for Ohtani to sign that since he could pretty easily make $40+M in arbitration if he&#8217;s as good as we think he is. Either way, I think trying to handicap his landing spot is definitely not the right way to go (and I think you&#8217;re saying you agree). That makes him a Jays long shot (as he is with any other team), but nothing worse than that.</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64273</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Nov 2017 17:28:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64273</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Imagine you&#039;re a fan of another team that is looking to improve at SS. Would trading for Tulo at $15M, $15M, $9M and a $4M buyout for 2021 be high on your list of possibilities to explore? 

Now imagine the other team is SF, with Crawford at SS who&#039;ll be an FA after being paid $8M next season. Also factor in that you&#039;ll be near the luxury tax threshold. Again, does trading for Tulo look like a particularly appealing idea?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Imagine you&#8217;re a fan of another team that is looking to improve at SS. Would trading for Tulo at $15M, $15M, $9M and a $4M buyout for 2021 be high on your list of possibilities to explore? </p>
<p>Now imagine the other team is SF, with Crawford at SS who&#8217;ll be an FA after being paid $8M next season. Also factor in that you&#8217;ll be near the luxury tax threshold. Again, does trading for Tulo look like a particularly appealing idea?</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64269</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Nov 2017 17:15:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64269</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Also, we have no idea how important the money is actually going to be to Ohtani.&quot;

This seems to get left out of some people&#039;s thinking. They see indications he might be leaving $200M on the table by coming to MLS now rather than in two years as a true FA, but they don&#039;t take the next step to seeing that he doesn&#039;t value money the way that they do / think he should. 

A key disconnect is that they see only a couple of teams with $3+M in bonus money left, and they assume that gives them a big advantage over teams with much less. But how well does this line up with his apparent willingness to forego up to $200M? 

It also strikes me that Rogers ought to be able to find / finagle ways to put other money such as endorsements into Ohtani&#039;s pocket. 

And there&#039;s even at least one precedent for signing a player with no MLB experience to an extension. So, as just one possible example, it might be possible for teams to extend Ohtani during the off-season. They&#039;d have trouble justifying anything near $200M, but I&#039;d be very surprised if they (and other teams) can&#039;t put together some kind of package that MLB won&#039;t be able to block and with enough guaranteed dollars to make Ohtani a very rich man.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Also, we have no idea how important the money is actually going to be to Ohtani.&#8221;</p>
<p>This seems to get left out of some people&#8217;s thinking. They see indications he might be leaving $200M on the table by coming to MLS now rather than in two years as a true FA, but they don&#8217;t take the next step to seeing that he doesn&#8217;t value money the way that they do / think he should. </p>
<p>A key disconnect is that they see only a couple of teams with $3+M in bonus money left, and they assume that gives them a big advantage over teams with much less. But how well does this line up with his apparent willingness to forego up to $200M? </p>
<p>It also strikes me that Rogers ought to be able to find / finagle ways to put other money such as endorsements into Ohtani&#8217;s pocket. </p>
<p>And there&#8217;s even at least one precedent for signing a player with no MLB experience to an extension. So, as just one possible example, it might be possible for teams to extend Ohtani during the off-season. They&#8217;d have trouble justifying anything near $200M, but I&#8217;d be very surprised if they (and other teams) can&#8217;t put together some kind of package that MLB won&#8217;t be able to block and with enough guaranteed dollars to make Ohtani a very rich man.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64265</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Nov 2017 16:50:08 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64265</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Whoa. That&#039;s a lot to unpack. Thanks for reading and asking!

For starters, I think going from Smoak to Hosmer is a lateral move for a lot more money, so I&#039;m not at all with you there. Like Smoak, Hosmer is coming off a career year. For much of his career, he has basically been James Loney. If I&#039;m gambling on a player&#039;s most recent year being real, I&#039;d much rather do it for one year at $4.25M (with a team option) than 6-7 years at $20M.

I&#039;m fine with the idea of Gordon, as I think he&#039;s a useful player at a reasonable, though not cheap, salary. I think that&#039;s why you&#039;re hearing a lot of rumours about him to begin with. 

I&#039;m also fine with going after Cobb (though I&#039;d prefer better). He&#039;s a good pitcher and shouldn&#039;t cost TOO much, though he is tied to draft pick compensation. He&#039;s the type of pitcher I expect them to get though. Him, Tyler Chatwood, Lance Lynn, Chris Tillman...something of that ilk. Ohtani is the wild card but, as you suggested, very unlikely.

I don&#039;t see any scenario where the Giants take on Tulo&#039;s deal, even with the Jays eating $5M of it. It just doesn&#039;t make sense for them (or really any team). Obviously if it COULD be done, it would be worth getting Crawford. I just don&#039;t see how they&#039;d agree to that. They can get a much better CF than Pillar elsewhere (and in FA) and keep the better, cheaper player in Crawford.

The biggest problem to me though is your view of the outfield. If you trade Pearce (who I agree should be traded regardless of what they do) and Pillar, you&#039;re stuck playing a group of 3 rookies, with 2 of them coming from a group that is made up of a guy who only has 30 PA above double-A (Alford), a guy who put up a .678 OPS in his second taste of AA last year (Ramirez), a guy who missed the entire season and just can&#039;t stay healthy (Pompey), and a guy who frankly just isn&#039;t really major league calibre (Smith Jr.).

Even if you keep Pillar, you&#039;re still playing 2 rookies and a guy who can&#039;t hit. That&#039;s the type of outfield you field if you&#039;re rebuilding, not if you&#039;re pulling in guys like Alex Cobb and Dee Gordon. Sure, it has upside, but the downside is way too big to justify it. If this team is going to go for it with long term veterans (both Cobb and Gordon will be on at least 3 year contracts), they need to be going all in, not half way.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Whoa. That&#8217;s a lot to unpack. Thanks for reading and asking!</p>
<p>For starters, I think going from Smoak to Hosmer is a lateral move for a lot more money, so I&#8217;m not at all with you there. Like Smoak, Hosmer is coming off a career year. For much of his career, he has basically been James Loney. If I&#8217;m gambling on a player&#8217;s most recent year being real, I&#8217;d much rather do it for one year at $4.25M (with a team option) than 6-7 years at $20M.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m fine with the idea of Gordon, as I think he&#8217;s a useful player at a reasonable, though not cheap, salary. I think that&#8217;s why you&#8217;re hearing a lot of rumours about him to begin with. </p>
<p>I&#8217;m also fine with going after Cobb (though I&#8217;d prefer better). He&#8217;s a good pitcher and shouldn&#8217;t cost TOO much, though he is tied to draft pick compensation. He&#8217;s the type of pitcher I expect them to get though. Him, Tyler Chatwood, Lance Lynn, Chris Tillman&#8230;something of that ilk. Ohtani is the wild card but, as you suggested, very unlikely.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t see any scenario where the Giants take on Tulo&#8217;s deal, even with the Jays eating $5M of it. It just doesn&#8217;t make sense for them (or really any team). Obviously if it COULD be done, it would be worth getting Crawford. I just don&#8217;t see how they&#8217;d agree to that. They can get a much better CF than Pillar elsewhere (and in FA) and keep the better, cheaper player in Crawford.</p>
<p>The biggest problem to me though is your view of the outfield. If you trade Pearce (who I agree should be traded regardless of what they do) and Pillar, you&#8217;re stuck playing a group of 3 rookies, with 2 of them coming from a group that is made up of a guy who only has 30 PA above double-A (Alford), a guy who put up a .678 OPS in his second taste of AA last year (Ramirez), a guy who missed the entire season and just can&#8217;t stay healthy (Pompey), and a guy who frankly just isn&#8217;t really major league calibre (Smith Jr.).</p>
<p>Even if you keep Pillar, you&#8217;re still playing 2 rookies and a guy who can&#8217;t hit. That&#8217;s the type of outfield you field if you&#8217;re rebuilding, not if you&#8217;re pulling in guys like Alex Cobb and Dee Gordon. Sure, it has upside, but the downside is way too big to justify it. If this team is going to go for it with long term veterans (both Cobb and Gordon will be on at least 3 year contracts), they need to be going all in, not half way.</p>
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		<title>By: MichaelBerg</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64247</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[MichaelBerg]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Nov 2017 15:42:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64247</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Here are my thoughts on the off season and please let me know if I am crazy. I follow our minor league pretty closely and have based a lot of my rant on what I am seeing. So here I go:
OF-I just strongly believe that we should not be shopping for an outfielder, if your finances will be tight then this is not the area. Actually this is our strongest area of ready depth in our entire system. I would save the money and look to either Hernendez, Alford, Pompey, Smith Jr, Rameriez. All are young and provide speed. In fact we should also be trading Pearce.
Infield: I would really be looking to add Gordon in a trade. We have lots of prospects that are teir 2 that could get this deal done and honestly we will soon not be able to protect them all. Crazy trade idea coming beware- but I would also be shopping a package of tulo and pillar and would retain 5 million per year on tulos deal making tulo a more reasonable 15 million per year. This would bring back decent prospects I would look to San Francisco getting a deal for Crawford and 2 pitchers that are ready or very close to being ready for the 2019 year.  Also I know this might not be the favourable suggestion as he had a good year last year but we should be trading Justin Smoak. Our number one bat that we should be pursuing in the off season is Hosmer. Smoak’s Werth will never be higher then right now. He is controlled for 2 more years for a reasonable 10 million and provides great Defence. The problem is the jays do not need another power only bat that clogs the base paths and can’t score from second on a base hit. Hosmer provides team leadership, OBP, some power, and good D. Also in our prospect system 1B is our weakest developed position. (Sorry all the tellez fans but we also don’t need another morales). Back up catcher I would look to sign Rosario.
Bullpen-I would not sign a single person here, not because it’s not needed, but because it’s not the need of concern to make us better. We currently will have osuna, biagini, Leone, tempera, Barnes, Loup, mayza.....I can live with this.
SP-Here is another area of need with losing Estrada and happ next year we need to sign a top 3 arm this year. My suggestion is Cobb but that’s everyones suggestion too. Anyways it needs to be too 3. Trading Pearce, smoak, pillar and Tulo will provide more pitching depth to fill those 2 remaining spots for the 2019 year and if we spend right this year next year we fill in-house.
Ohtani- Do I want him, yes! Is it going to happen, no way
So let’s look at money: trading smoak, Pearce, Pillar and tulo but retaining 5 million opens up roughly 30 million dollars. If the jays have roughly 50 million to spend this off season (not counting Josh’s arb of 20 million) to come close to last years budget that provides 80 million. Gordon costs 10, hosmer 20, Cobb 15 spending 45 million. We then have 35 million left, well let’s take that and resign josh to a 5 year 120million $24AAV, and look at extending stroman as well.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Here are my thoughts on the off season and please let me know if I am crazy. I follow our minor league pretty closely and have based a lot of my rant on what I am seeing. So here I go:<br />
OF-I just strongly believe that we should not be shopping for an outfielder, if your finances will be tight then this is not the area. Actually this is our strongest area of ready depth in our entire system. I would save the money and look to either Hernendez, Alford, Pompey, Smith Jr, Rameriez. All are young and provide speed. In fact we should also be trading Pearce.<br />
Infield: I would really be looking to add Gordon in a trade. We have lots of prospects that are teir 2 that could get this deal done and honestly we will soon not be able to protect them all. Crazy trade idea coming beware- but I would also be shopping a package of tulo and pillar and would retain 5 million per year on tulos deal making tulo a more reasonable 15 million per year. This would bring back decent prospects I would look to San Francisco getting a deal for Crawford and 2 pitchers that are ready or very close to being ready for the 2019 year.  Also I know this might not be the favourable suggestion as he had a good year last year but we should be trading Justin Smoak. Our number one bat that we should be pursuing in the off season is Hosmer. Smoak’s Werth will never be higher then right now. He is controlled for 2 more years for a reasonable 10 million and provides great Defence. The problem is the jays do not need another power only bat that clogs the base paths and can’t score from second on a base hit. Hosmer provides team leadership, OBP, some power, and good D. Also in our prospect system 1B is our weakest developed position. (Sorry all the tellez fans but we also don’t need another morales). Back up catcher I would look to sign Rosario.<br />
Bullpen-I would not sign a single person here, not because it’s not needed, but because it’s not the need of concern to make us better. We currently will have osuna, biagini, Leone, tempera, Barnes, Loup, mayza&#8230;..I can live with this.<br />
SP-Here is another area of need with losing Estrada and happ next year we need to sign a top 3 arm this year. My suggestion is Cobb but that’s everyones suggestion too. Anyways it needs to be too 3. Trading Pearce, smoak, pillar and Tulo will provide more pitching depth to fill those 2 remaining spots for the 2019 year and if we spend right this year next year we fill in-house.<br />
Ohtani- Do I want him, yes! Is it going to happen, no way<br />
So let’s look at money: trading smoak, Pearce, Pillar and tulo but retaining 5 million opens up roughly 30 million dollars. If the jays have roughly 50 million to spend this off season (not counting Josh’s arb of 20 million) to come close to last years budget that provides 80 million. Gordon costs 10, hosmer 20, Cobb 15 spending 45 million. We then have 35 million left, well let’s take that and resign josh to a 5 year 120million $24AAV, and look at extending stroman as well.</p>
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		<title>By: MichaelBerg</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/11/17/shohei-ohtani-bo-bichette-and-a-window-into-the-mind-of-the-blue-jays-fan/#comment-64238</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[MichaelBerg]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 18 Nov 2017 15:09:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=14202#comment-64238</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hello Josh big fan]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hello Josh big fan</p>
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