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	<title>Comments on: The Most Surprising Stats from an Underwhelming Blue Jays Season</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/05/the-most-surprising-stats-from-an-underwhelming-blue-jays-season/</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>By: Dwight</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/05/the-most-surprising-stats-from-an-underwhelming-blue-jays-season/#comment-52639</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Dwight]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 27 Sep 2017 14:54:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13285#comment-52639</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[What matters is WHO is striking out.

The difference between the 2016 roster and 2017 roster is that for most of the season, we have light hitters squaring up the ball and inducing ....... weak ground balls! I would say it would lead to more double plays but no one is getting on base enough to see a rise in double play %.

Donaldson replaced by Goins/Barney for a large part of the season
Travis replaced by Goins/Barney most of the season
Martin replaced by AA grade replacement catchers like Maile who can&#039;t hit.
Tulowitzki reduced his strikeout rate down but so did his OPS.

The Blue Jays&#039; strikeout rate went down and was replaced by weak ground balls. Not exactly a winning strategy.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>What matters is WHO is striking out.</p>
<p>The difference between the 2016 roster and 2017 roster is that for most of the season, we have light hitters squaring up the ball and inducing &#8230;&#8230;. weak ground balls! I would say it would lead to more double plays but no one is getting on base enough to see a rise in double play %.</p>
<p>Donaldson replaced by Goins/Barney for a large part of the season<br />
Travis replaced by Goins/Barney most of the season<br />
Martin replaced by AA grade replacement catchers like Maile who can&#8217;t hit.<br />
Tulowitzki reduced his strikeout rate down but so did his OPS.</p>
<p>The Blue Jays&#8217; strikeout rate went down and was replaced by weak ground balls. Not exactly a winning strategy.</p>
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		<title>By: Kenii</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/05/the-most-surprising-stats-from-an-underwhelming-blue-jays-season/#comment-48731</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kenii]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Sep 2017 17:42:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13285#comment-48731</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Regarding your first question, I didn&#039;t say that the Red Sox, Astros, and Indians have &quot;the best offenses,&quot; just that they&#039;re a few of the &quot;best teams in the league&quot; (i.e. overall; especially with respect to the standings). After all, the Padres, Rays, and Athletics also have some of the highest K%s and they&#039;re all doing poorly overall, so if I&#039;m cherry-picking, then so are you. My main point is that while there are obviously exceptions (as there always will be), strikeouts can impact team performance; to say that &quot;strikeouts don&#039;t matter&quot; is more than a stretch.

Regarding your second question: just because the league average K% increased, doesn&#039;t mean that the Jays have done much (if anything) to decrease its K%. I still contend that a 1% reduction in K% is of little practical significance, and that the reason why they *appear* to have improved (especially with respect to their ranking) has much more to do with other teams striking out more than the Blue Jays striking out less. That&#039;s why I pointed out that if the Jays had the exact same K% as last year, they would rank 14th this year; much lower (or higher, depending on your perspective) than the ranking of 8th last year, and much closer to their ranking of 18th this year. That other teams are striking out more gives the illusion that the Jays are striking out much less than they actually are. After all a 20.9% strikeout rate is still the second highest K% for the team in the last 10 years. So, if there&#039;s a slight decline from last year, it could also be because last year&#039;s K% is more of a statistical anomaly (i.e. a much higher than average increase) rather than a normal increase relative to the increase in the league average. Not only that, but given that the season still isn&#039;t over, this figure is also subject to changes. 

Basically, my stance is that strikeouts don&#039;t tell the whole story, but they&#039;re still an important consideration. I&#039;m not sold on the idea, nor does the data convince me, that the Jays&#039; strikeouts have declined as much as you make it sound. 

I&#039;ll still wait until after the season&#039;s over to decide for myself how badly their run scoring has declined, but at this point, I&#039;m not willing to describe it as &quot;cratering.&quot; 

Thanks for replying!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Regarding your first question, I didn&#8217;t say that the Red Sox, Astros, and Indians have &#8220;the best offenses,&#8221; just that they&#8217;re a few of the &#8220;best teams in the league&#8221; (i.e. overall; especially with respect to the standings). After all, the Padres, Rays, and Athletics also have some of the highest K%s and they&#8217;re all doing poorly overall, so if I&#8217;m cherry-picking, then so are you. My main point is that while there are obviously exceptions (as there always will be), strikeouts can impact team performance; to say that &#8220;strikeouts don&#8217;t matter&#8221; is more than a stretch.</p>
<p>Regarding your second question: just because the league average K% increased, doesn&#8217;t mean that the Jays have done much (if anything) to decrease its K%. I still contend that a 1% reduction in K% is of little practical significance, and that the reason why they *appear* to have improved (especially with respect to their ranking) has much more to do with other teams striking out more than the Blue Jays striking out less. That&#8217;s why I pointed out that if the Jays had the exact same K% as last year, they would rank 14th this year; much lower (or higher, depending on your perspective) than the ranking of 8th last year, and much closer to their ranking of 18th this year. That other teams are striking out more gives the illusion that the Jays are striking out much less than they actually are. After all a 20.9% strikeout rate is still the second highest K% for the team in the last 10 years. So, if there&#8217;s a slight decline from last year, it could also be because last year&#8217;s K% is more of a statistical anomaly (i.e. a much higher than average increase) rather than a normal increase relative to the increase in the league average. Not only that, but given that the season still isn&#8217;t over, this figure is also subject to changes. </p>
<p>Basically, my stance is that strikeouts don&#8217;t tell the whole story, but they&#8217;re still an important consideration. I&#8217;m not sold on the idea, nor does the data convince me, that the Jays&#8217; strikeouts have declined as much as you make it sound. </p>
<p>I&#8217;ll still wait until after the season&#8217;s over to decide for myself how badly their run scoring has declined, but at this point, I&#8217;m not willing to describe it as &#8220;cratering.&#8221; </p>
<p>Thanks for replying!</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Dika</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/05/the-most-surprising-stats-from-an-underwhelming-blue-jays-season/#comment-48720</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Sep 2017 16:22:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13285#comment-48720</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I noticed this too. I was thinking of including their low BABIP  in the piece but when I looked at their batted ball data, it seemed like the low BABIP was the result of the Jays hitting a lot of infield fly balls and making soft contact - the likely cause of the low BABIP. 

Thanks for readin!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I noticed this too. I was thinking of including their low BABIP  in the piece but when I looked at their batted ball data, it seemed like the low BABIP was the result of the Jays hitting a lot of infield fly balls and making soft contact &#8211; the likely cause of the low BABIP. </p>
<p>Thanks for readin!</p>
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		<title>By: Nick Dika</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/05/the-most-surprising-stats-from-an-underwhelming-blue-jays-season/#comment-48719</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nick Dika]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Sep 2017 16:14:12 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13285#comment-48719</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Hey Keni! Thanks for reading, you&#039;ve made a bunch of interesting points here. I&#039;ve got a couple questions for ya.

-How come you aren&#039;t considering the Dodgers and Yankees (the 2nd and 3rd best offences in baseball by wRC+) when you talk about the best offences posting low strikeout totals? They both have high K?% totals. As do the Rangers, Rockies, Cubs and D-Backs who rank 4-7 in MLB runs scored. It feels like citing the Stros, Sox (who aren&#039;t a great offensive team) and Cleveland is a bit cherry picked? 

-I don&#039;t understand what you mean when you say the Jays strikeout percentage is the same as last year? The league average K% is going up, yet the Jays&#039; K% is going down? Adjusting for variance would mean that their K% change is actually larger relative to the MLB average (given everyone is striking out more and the Jays are striking out less), and not practically the same?

-I agree it&#039;s a bit challenging comparing run scored totals when we still have a month to go. That&#039;s why I included the Jays MLB rank and not just the total runs scored.

Cheers!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Hey Keni! Thanks for reading, you&#8217;ve made a bunch of interesting points here. I&#8217;ve got a couple questions for ya.</p>
<p>-How come you aren&#8217;t considering the Dodgers and Yankees (the 2nd and 3rd best offences in baseball by wRC+) when you talk about the best offences posting low strikeout totals? They both have high K?% totals. As do the Rangers, Rockies, Cubs and D-Backs who rank 4-7 in MLB runs scored. It feels like citing the Stros, Sox (who aren&#8217;t a great offensive team) and Cleveland is a bit cherry picked? </p>
<p>-I don&#8217;t understand what you mean when you say the Jays strikeout percentage is the same as last year? The league average K% is going up, yet the Jays&#8217; K% is going down? Adjusting for variance would mean that their K% change is actually larger relative to the MLB average (given everyone is striking out more and the Jays are striking out less), and not practically the same?</p>
<p>-I agree it&#8217;s a bit challenging comparing run scored totals when we still have a month to go. That&#8217;s why I included the Jays MLB rank and not just the total runs scored.</p>
<p>Cheers!</p>
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		<title>By: monkeyman</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/05/the-most-surprising-stats-from-an-underwhelming-blue-jays-season/#comment-48716</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[monkeyman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Sep 2017 15:45:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[on the other hand, jays are last in MLB inBABIP and 25th in Clusterluck so pretty sure they&#039;ve been bad and unlucky.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>on the other hand, jays are last in MLB inBABIP and 25th in Clusterluck so pretty sure they&#8217;ve been bad and unlucky.</p>
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		<title>By: Kenii</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/09/05/the-most-surprising-stats-from-an-underwhelming-blue-jays-season/#comment-48710</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kenii]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 05 Sep 2017 15:18:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=13285#comment-48710</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Strikeouts don&#039;t matter&quot; is a deliberately egregious statement. If it were true, Fangraphs wouldn&#039;t show the best teams in the league (Red Sox, Indians, Astros) having the lowest strikeout percentages. Strikeouts matter; it&#039;s just not the sole contributing factor to a team&#039;s poor performance. 

Also, the data presented here doesn&#039;t suggest that the Jays&#039; team strikeouts are &quot;way&quot; down, nor do they suggest that they &quot;significantly&quot; (statistically or practically) cut their strikeout rate. From 2016 to 2017, their strikeout percentage only went down 1%! That&#039;s insignificant given that the league average fluctuated by 0.5% since last year, meaning that 1%  is well within annual statistical variations (noise + error). If anything, their strikeout percentage is practically the same as last year. 

A quick look at Fangraphs also suggests that a rank of 19th is a bit generous given that the Jays are sort of tied with the Mets and Nationals at 20.9%. Except that the Jays have more plate appearances than the Mets and fewer than the Nationals, meaning that they actually rank 18th. A jump in rank by 10 spots might sound impressive, but it doesn&#039;t account for the possibility that other teams are just striking out more. For instance, if the Jays had a 21.9% (last year&#039;s K%) this year, they would only rank 14th, which is only a jump of 4 spots rather than 10!

Run totals seem lower, but again, it&#039;s hard to tell how much of their lower rank is just due to other teams scoring more runs. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference actually have the Jays at 592 runs (the 582 in the article as of this writing may be a typo). 592 does seem like a lot less than 759 from last year, until you realize that there&#039;s still about one month&#039;s worth of MLB left, and the Jays could very well score another 100 to 150 runs in the next month because those are typical monthly figures for runs scored. If they do score another 150, then they&#039;re still on pace to practically tie their run total from last year. It&#039;s a stretch, but even if they only score 100 more runs (perfectly doable), their offense will not have &quot;cratered&quot; since last year. It&#039;s a decline that could be attributed to a number of factors (of which strikeouts could be one), but not a crater. Another interpretation of the combination of runs scored by the Jays and their league ranking could be that perhaps they just haven&#039;t kept up or improved their offensive production the way most of the rest of the league has since last year.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Strikeouts don&#8217;t matter&#8221; is a deliberately egregious statement. If it were true, Fangraphs wouldn&#8217;t show the best teams in the league (Red Sox, Indians, Astros) having the lowest strikeout percentages. Strikeouts matter; it&#8217;s just not the sole contributing factor to a team&#8217;s poor performance. </p>
<p>Also, the data presented here doesn&#8217;t suggest that the Jays&#8217; team strikeouts are &#8220;way&#8221; down, nor do they suggest that they &#8220;significantly&#8221; (statistically or practically) cut their strikeout rate. From 2016 to 2017, their strikeout percentage only went down 1%! That&#8217;s insignificant given that the league average fluctuated by 0.5% since last year, meaning that 1%  is well within annual statistical variations (noise + error). If anything, their strikeout percentage is practically the same as last year. </p>
<p>A quick look at Fangraphs also suggests that a rank of 19th is a bit generous given that the Jays are sort of tied with the Mets and Nationals at 20.9%. Except that the Jays have more plate appearances than the Mets and fewer than the Nationals, meaning that they actually rank 18th. A jump in rank by 10 spots might sound impressive, but it doesn&#8217;t account for the possibility that other teams are just striking out more. For instance, if the Jays had a 21.9% (last year&#8217;s K%) this year, they would only rank 14th, which is only a jump of 4 spots rather than 10!</p>
<p>Run totals seem lower, but again, it&#8217;s hard to tell how much of their lower rank is just due to other teams scoring more runs. Fangraphs and Baseball-Reference actually have the Jays at 592 runs (the 582 in the article as of this writing may be a typo). 592 does seem like a lot less than 759 from last year, until you realize that there&#8217;s still about one month&#8217;s worth of MLB left, and the Jays could very well score another 100 to 150 runs in the next month because those are typical monthly figures for runs scored. If they do score another 150, then they&#8217;re still on pace to practically tie their run total from last year. It&#8217;s a stretch, but even if they only score 100 more runs (perfectly doable), their offense will not have &#8220;cratered&#8221; since last year. It&#8217;s a decline that could be attributed to a number of factors (of which strikeouts could be one), but not a crater. Another interpretation of the combination of runs scored by the Jays and their league ranking could be that perhaps they just haven&#8217;t kept up or improved their offensive production the way most of the rest of the league has since last year.</p>
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