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	<title>Comments on: Why the Blue Jays Chose Ryan Goins for their Opening Day Roster</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26270</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 06 Apr 2017 12:08:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004#comment-26270</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The stats don&#039;t support your argument that Carrera &gt; Upton offensively. You may prefer to watch Carrera&#039;s smallball, but Upton was similar to Carrera in 2016 and superior in 2015. 

Carrera most definitely hit his peak. And the sad part is Upton even in his declining years is still a better player than Carrera. It&#039;s not particularly close. 

Smoak is an overrated defender, as is Carrera. And the Upton/Pearce combo is a far better defensive unit than the Carrera/Smoak or Carrera/Pearce alignment. Pearce is actually a better defender at 1B than Smoak is, and Upton is a better defender than Carrera/Pearce in the OF.

Goins won&#039;t be backing up Travis - Barney will. Barney &gt; Goins, so Goins will only play as a pinch runner (like we saw yesterday, where he&#039;s an inferior runner to Upton), and in blowouts, or when the Jays need to replace 2 IF (which rarely happens). 

Upton is a far greater player than Goins. It&#039;s not a shrewd decision, because Goins is a replacement level player, and Upton is not.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The stats don&#8217;t support your argument that Carrera &gt; Upton offensively. You may prefer to watch Carrera&#8217;s smallball, but Upton was similar to Carrera in 2016 and superior in 2015. </p>
<p>Carrera most definitely hit his peak. And the sad part is Upton even in his declining years is still a better player than Carrera. It&#8217;s not particularly close. </p>
<p>Smoak is an overrated defender, as is Carrera. And the Upton/Pearce combo is a far better defensive unit than the Carrera/Smoak or Carrera/Pearce alignment. Pearce is actually a better defender at 1B than Smoak is, and Upton is a better defender than Carrera/Pearce in the OF.</p>
<p>Goins won&#8217;t be backing up Travis &#8211; Barney will. Barney &gt; Goins, so Goins will only play as a pinch runner (like we saw yesterday, where he&#8217;s an inferior runner to Upton), and in blowouts, or when the Jays need to replace 2 IF (which rarely happens). </p>
<p>Upton is a far greater player than Goins. It&#8217;s not a shrewd decision, because Goins is a replacement level player, and Upton is not.</p>
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		<title>By: terry mesmer</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26240</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[terry mesmer]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 05 Apr 2017 19:52:11 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004#comment-26240</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Someone needs to pinch run for Morales late in games. Upton would have been great for that.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Someone needs to pinch run for Morales late in games. Upton would have been great for that.</p>
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		<title>By: Gideon Turk</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26156</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Apr 2017 18:46:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004#comment-26156</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[hahaha thanks Sheila!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>hahaha thanks Sheila!</p>
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		<title>By: Sheila MacDougal</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26155</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheila MacDougal]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Apr 2017 17:53:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004#comment-26155</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have se eral objections to your arguments. First, I don&#039;t agree that Upton is superior to Carrera; on the contrary, the latter is preferable both in the field and at the plate. Among other advantages, Carrera is terrific in the clutch and in big games; indeed he is among the best on the team in that regard, while Upton is among the worst. 
     My second objection is that both Smoak and arguably Carrera have not reached their peaks, while Upton is 33 and on a marked decline. That does not show up in the statistics you cite but is hugely significant, especially in the comparison with Smoak. Also, Smoak is considered a good defensive first baseman, so the Pearce (LF)-Smoak combo is defensively superior to Upton-Pearce (1B). As for Goins, he is definitely useful to keep as a utility backup to Travis, and also has superior market value (given Upton&#039;s zero) so can at some point be traded if Travis proves reliably healthy and another infielder can be called up from the minors. Retaining Upton, who is a worthless commodity, while losing Goins who had no options left, would have been a simple mistake. This is an occasion to applaud a shrewd decision by the tip brass.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have se eral objections to your arguments. First, I don&#8217;t agree that Upton is superior to Carrera; on the contrary, the latter is preferable both in the field and at the plate. Among other advantages, Carrera is terrific in the clutch and in big games; indeed he is among the best on the team in that regard, while Upton is among the worst.<br />
     My second objection is that both Smoak and arguably Carrera have not reached their peaks, while Upton is 33 and on a marked decline. That does not show up in the statistics you cite but is hugely significant, especially in the comparison with Smoak. Also, Smoak is considered a good defensive first baseman, so the Pearce (LF)-Smoak combo is defensively superior to Upton-Pearce (1B). As for Goins, he is definitely useful to keep as a utility backup to Travis, and also has superior market value (given Upton&#8217;s zero) so can at some point be traded if Travis proves reliably healthy and another infielder can be called up from the minors. Retaining Upton, who is a worthless commodity, while losing Goins who had no options left, would have been a simple mistake. This is an occasion to applaud a shrewd decision by the tip brass.</p>
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		<title>By: Sheila MacDougal</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26153</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Sheila MacDougal]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Apr 2017 17:24:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004#comment-26153</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That was the most informative and insightful explanation of the Jays roster decisions I have seen anywhere online. I&#039;ll make a point of reading more from this author in the future. I  would also get my teeth fixed by him once he begins his dental practice if I lived closer to Manhattan. Good luck with your studies.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That was the most informative and insightful explanation of the Jays roster decisions I have seen anywhere online. I&#8217;ll make a point of reading more from this author in the future. I  would also get my teeth fixed by him once he begins his dental practice if I lived closer to Manhattan. Good luck with your studies.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26148</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Apr 2017 11:54:28 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004#comment-26148</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Your right i dont understand why the jays like smoak so muh. He hasnt proved anything. I was content to have pearce at first and then upton/carrera/whoever else. Smoak on bench. He doesnt deserve to be a starter. Also pagan i think would of helped for a cheap price but jays dont want to give him a starting job. Dont undertand]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Your right i dont understand why the jays like smoak so muh. He hasnt proved anything. I was content to have pearce at first and then upton/carrera/whoever else. Smoak on bench. He doesnt deserve to be a starter. Also pagan i think would of helped for a cheap price but jays dont want to give him a starting job. Dont undertand</p>
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		<title>By: Peter</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26126</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Peter]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 03 Apr 2017 01:03:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004#comment-26126</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I agree.   Toronto&#039;s commitment to Smoak confuses me greatly.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree.   Toronto&#8217;s commitment to Smoak confuses me greatly.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26120</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Apr 2017 22:34:21 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004#comment-26120</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;The Blue Jays in effect chose Justin Smoak over Melvin Upton. That decision, although questionable, actually makes a lot more sense.&quot;

Except it doesn&#039;t really make sense. Pearce in the OF isn&#039;t a particularly good defensive OF. Pearce at 1B is quite good defensively. Upton is a much better defender &amp; baserunner than Smoak. And while Smoak&#039;s a better hitter, Upton impacts the game in other ways to provide more value to more than offset the offensive gap. 

You&#039;re right that over the past 3 years, Smoak was a better hitter. He had an advantage of a 93 wRC+ to 84 wRC+. Pretty decent advantage there.

Of course, wRC+ isn&#039;t all that matters for player evaluation. Over that time Upton was worth 10 runs by baserunning, and Smoak was -5. So just on baserunning, there was a 15 run difference between the two. By WAR, Upton was worth 3 and Smoak was worth 0.1. That combination I talked about of being more than just offence? Yeah, WAR makes it pretty clear that despite the offensive advantage for Smoak, Upton is the superior player.

If we focus more on 2015-2016, the offensive gap shrinks - Upton has a 92 wRC+, Smoak is 99. So in the 2 most recent years, the difference between Smoak/Upton isn&#039;t significant offensively, but there&#039;s still a massive gap in terms of production and value thanks to Upton&#039;s sizeable advantage in baserunning and defence. Upton is worth 2.7 WAR over the past 2 years, Smoak 0.5.

There&#039;s no reason to choose Smoak over Upton. The Jays are a much better team with Upton in LF (platooned, ideally) and Pearce at 1B, vs Pearce in LF and Smoak at 1B. The defence is much better, and with the right platoon partner, the Jays are significantly better with Upton vs LHP and Pearce full time at 1B. Or even Pearce in LF, Smoak 1B vs RHP and Pearce at 1B and Upton in LF vs LHP. 

If the Jays could have got a piece for Goins, a replacement level player, they should have taken it, quite frankly. Seems like the Jays made a series of questionable decisions, and at the end of the day the best player of Smoak/Carrera/Goins/Upton is no longer in the organization. If you&#039;re right that he signs a minor league deal, then the Jays kept 3 replacement level players at the major league level, and put the only guy with a legitimate upside and likelihood to reach 1 WAR in a bench/platoon role in the minors to protect their replacement level players.

All in all it seems the Jays made several poor choices. Any decision that leads you to keep Ryan Goins, Carrera or Smoak over Upton shows a lack of understanding of quality depth, of which Carrera and Goins are not. And if anybody comes to the conclusion that Smoak is more valuable than Upton, then I&#039;d question that decision as well. Because there&#039;s no evidence to support it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;The Blue Jays in effect chose Justin Smoak over Melvin Upton. That decision, although questionable, actually makes a lot more sense.&#8221;</p>
<p>Except it doesn&#8217;t really make sense. Pearce in the OF isn&#8217;t a particularly good defensive OF. Pearce at 1B is quite good defensively. Upton is a much better defender &amp; baserunner than Smoak. And while Smoak&#8217;s a better hitter, Upton impacts the game in other ways to provide more value to more than offset the offensive gap. </p>
<p>You&#8217;re right that over the past 3 years, Smoak was a better hitter. He had an advantage of a 93 wRC+ to 84 wRC+. Pretty decent advantage there.</p>
<p>Of course, wRC+ isn&#8217;t all that matters for player evaluation. Over that time Upton was worth 10 runs by baserunning, and Smoak was -5. So just on baserunning, there was a 15 run difference between the two. By WAR, Upton was worth 3 and Smoak was worth 0.1. That combination I talked about of being more than just offence? Yeah, WAR makes it pretty clear that despite the offensive advantage for Smoak, Upton is the superior player.</p>
<p>If we focus more on 2015-2016, the offensive gap shrinks &#8211; Upton has a 92 wRC+, Smoak is 99. So in the 2 most recent years, the difference between Smoak/Upton isn&#8217;t significant offensively, but there&#8217;s still a massive gap in terms of production and value thanks to Upton&#8217;s sizeable advantage in baserunning and defence. Upton is worth 2.7 WAR over the past 2 years, Smoak 0.5.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s no reason to choose Smoak over Upton. The Jays are a much better team with Upton in LF (platooned, ideally) and Pearce at 1B, vs Pearce in LF and Smoak at 1B. The defence is much better, and with the right platoon partner, the Jays are significantly better with Upton vs LHP and Pearce full time at 1B. Or even Pearce in LF, Smoak 1B vs RHP and Pearce at 1B and Upton in LF vs LHP. </p>
<p>If the Jays could have got a piece for Goins, a replacement level player, they should have taken it, quite frankly. Seems like the Jays made a series of questionable decisions, and at the end of the day the best player of Smoak/Carrera/Goins/Upton is no longer in the organization. If you&#8217;re right that he signs a minor league deal, then the Jays kept 3 replacement level players at the major league level, and put the only guy with a legitimate upside and likelihood to reach 1 WAR in a bench/platoon role in the minors to protect their replacement level players.</p>
<p>All in all it seems the Jays made several poor choices. Any decision that leads you to keep Ryan Goins, Carrera or Smoak over Upton shows a lack of understanding of quality depth, of which Carrera and Goins are not. And if anybody comes to the conclusion that Smoak is more valuable than Upton, then I&#8217;d question that decision as well. Because there&#8217;s no evidence to support it.</p>
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		<title>By: Gideon Turk</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26119</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Apr 2017 21:55:14 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[You&#039;re welcome! Glad you liked it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>You&#8217;re welcome! Glad you liked it.</p>
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		<title>By: Gideon Turk</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/04/02/the-info-that-went-into-making-the-blue-jays-opening-day-roster-decisions/#comment-26118</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 02 Apr 2017 21:54:54 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=10004#comment-26118</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thanks! Glad you liked it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thanks! Glad you liked it.</p>
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