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	<title>Comments on: It&#8217;s Time to Talk Extension with Josh Donaldson</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/26/its-time-to-talk-extension-with-josh-donaldson/</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/26/its-time-to-talk-extension-with-josh-donaldson/#comment-22289</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2017 13:51:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8729#comment-22289</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[We&#039;ve seen a change in what FO is willing to pay for one dimensional sluggers. The guys who aren&#039;t getting paid are the guys who are liabilities on defence. The guys who are getting paid are the guys who can combine defence AND offence. Note that Jason Heyward got 180/6, and that Cespedes got 110/4 - which was right in line with what everybody expected. 

So no, it&#039;s not true that sluggers aren&#039;t getting paid anymore. Donaldson, Machado, Harper - guys who can both hit and field at a high level -  are going to be making significant, record breaking salaries. Donaldson won&#039;t necessarily be the record breaker in that group, as Machado and Harper might be looking at 250-300M deals, if not more, but Donaldson has no incentive to sign a deal unless it&#039;s starting at 190-200M. Cause he&#039;s going to get more than that in FA.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;ve seen a change in what FO is willing to pay for one dimensional sluggers. The guys who aren&#8217;t getting paid are the guys who are liabilities on defence. The guys who are getting paid are the guys who can combine defence AND offence. Note that Jason Heyward got 180/6, and that Cespedes got 110/4 &#8211; which was right in line with what everybody expected. </p>
<p>So no, it&#8217;s not true that sluggers aren&#8217;t getting paid anymore. Donaldson, Machado, Harper &#8211; guys who can both hit and field at a high level &#8211;  are going to be making significant, record breaking salaries. Donaldson won&#8217;t necessarily be the record breaker in that group, as Machado and Harper might be looking at 250-300M deals, if not more, but Donaldson has no incentive to sign a deal unless it&#8217;s starting at 190-200M. Cause he&#8217;s going to get more than that in FA.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/26/its-time-to-talk-extension-with-josh-donaldson/#comment-22288</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 31 Jan 2017 13:47:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8729#comment-22288</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[He dropped in defence, not in offence. And it&#039;s not that his performance actually dropped. His past 4 years his WAR has been 7.6, 6.6, 8.7, 7.6. So his performance was right in line with what you would expect.

There&#039;s some value in signing a contract now, sure, but 150/6 is far too great a discount when his value is likely closer to 190/6.

It&#039;s a win for the Jays, certainly, but for JD he&#039;s going to want more for the Jays to lock him up.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>He dropped in defence, not in offence. And it&#8217;s not that his performance actually dropped. His past 4 years his WAR has been 7.6, 6.6, 8.7, 7.6. So his performance was right in line with what you would expect.</p>
<p>There&#8217;s some value in signing a contract now, sure, but 150/6 is far too great a discount when his value is likely closer to 190/6.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s a win for the Jays, certainly, but for JD he&#8217;s going to want more for the Jays to lock him up.</p>
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		<title>By: George</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/26/its-time-to-talk-extension-with-josh-donaldson/#comment-22167</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[George]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jan 2017 10:58:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8729#comment-22167</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I think by the end of 2018, you won&#039;t get Donaldson at $30 mil unless you give him a lot of years, and you have to be prepared to overpay him a lot after the time he isn&#039;t worth it. (See Cano, Robinson) There are teams like the Yankees and Dodgers that can afford to do that, but not The Jays. Besides, Donaldson isn&#039;t going to settle for any deal that&#039;s in The Jays&#039; budget after he&#039;s just finished collecting a ridiculous 30.6 fWAR over the last 4 years. Somebody&#039;s going to overpay him, and I sure hope it isn&#039;t The Jays.
I think there are better things to do with their money, such as extending Stroman, Sanchez, or even Osuna. Besides, I&#039;ve never been a huge fan of putting all my eggs in one basket (see Fielder, Prince, or Upton, Melvin). Far better to pay for WAR spread up and down the lineup, rather than having your one big salary have a bad year or go on the DL.
The other thing is that Troy Tulowitzki will have to move to third base soon, and they hired one Lourdes Gurriel against that very event. Even if that doesn&#039;t work, it won&#039;t be long until young Vladdy is knocking on the door, and their #1 prospect right now is a shortstop in AA. The jays&#039; farm system is loaded with talent that&#039;s a year or two away, and if they want, as they claim, to get younger and more athletic (cheaper), then extending Josh isn&#039;t the way to do it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think by the end of 2018, you won&#8217;t get Donaldson at $30 mil unless you give him a lot of years, and you have to be prepared to overpay him a lot after the time he isn&#8217;t worth it. (See Cano, Robinson) There are teams like the Yankees and Dodgers that can afford to do that, but not The Jays. Besides, Donaldson isn&#8217;t going to settle for any deal that&#8217;s in The Jays&#8217; budget after he&#8217;s just finished collecting a ridiculous 30.6 fWAR over the last 4 years. Somebody&#8217;s going to overpay him, and I sure hope it isn&#8217;t The Jays.<br />
I think there are better things to do with their money, such as extending Stroman, Sanchez, or even Osuna. Besides, I&#8217;ve never been a huge fan of putting all my eggs in one basket (see Fielder, Prince, or Upton, Melvin). Far better to pay for WAR spread up and down the lineup, rather than having your one big salary have a bad year or go on the DL.<br />
The other thing is that Troy Tulowitzki will have to move to third base soon, and they hired one Lourdes Gurriel against that very event. Even if that doesn&#8217;t work, it won&#8217;t be long until young Vladdy is knocking on the door, and their #1 prospect right now is a shortstop in AA. The jays&#8217; farm system is loaded with talent that&#8217;s a year or two away, and if they want, as they claim, to get younger and more athletic (cheaper), then extending Josh isn&#8217;t the way to do it.</p>
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		<title>By: drit</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/26/its-time-to-talk-extension-with-josh-donaldson/#comment-22156</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[drit]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jan 2017 05:11:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8729#comment-22156</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Why would he want to sign here?....we just let 40 HR and 120 RBI sign with the enemy.... Does he want to get stuck here during the rebuild? Donaldson will not be a Jay in the very near future.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Why would he want to sign here?&#8230;.we just let 40 HR and 120 RBI sign with the enemy&#8230;. Does he want to get stuck here during the rebuild? Donaldson will not be a Jay in the very near future.</p>
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		<title>By: Joe</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/26/its-time-to-talk-extension-with-josh-donaldson/#comment-22153</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joe]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jan 2017 04:17:19 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[We&#039;ve seen a drastic change in what teams are willing to pay for aging sluggers. I can&#039;t see Shapiro/Atkins offering anything more than 6/140.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>We&#8217;ve seen a drastic change in what teams are willing to pay for aging sluggers. I can&#8217;t see Shapiro/Atkins offering anything more than 6/140.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/26/its-time-to-talk-extension-with-josh-donaldson/#comment-22148</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 29 Jan 2017 03:51:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8729#comment-22148</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[His idea of approaching Donaldson now versus at free agent time offers josh early protection against injury and or productivity loss. In essence josh would receive a guaranteed 25 million per year which is not far off of your 30 million. For him to achieve 30 million per year means he&#039;d have to play two more years healthy and maintain his current level of productivity. He dipped last year versus the previous year so one can not guarantee his productivity will be maintained. I agree with the author that approaching him now is wise and could net the jays a slight discount on a multi year deal while also giving Donaldson some extended comfort. It&#039;s win win.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>His idea of approaching Donaldson now versus at free agent time offers josh early protection against injury and or productivity loss. In essence josh would receive a guaranteed 25 million per year which is not far off of your 30 million. For him to achieve 30 million per year means he&#8217;d have to play two more years healthy and maintain his current level of productivity. He dipped last year versus the previous year so one can not guarantee his productivity will be maintained. I agree with the author that approaching him now is wise and could net the jays a slight discount on a multi year deal while also giving Donaldson some extended comfort. It&#8217;s win win.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/26/its-time-to-talk-extension-with-josh-donaldson/#comment-22027</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 27 Jan 2017 14:49:30 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8729#comment-22027</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Let&#039;s say Donaldson is worth 0.5 WAR less this year and next year, bringing him to 6.6 WAR. If you assume a decline of 0.5 WAR per year, he&#039;d likely be worth 29 WAR over a 6 year period after he&#039;s a FA. Now, if you think that&#039;s too optimistic, you can even drop 1 WAR per year extra, bringing him to 23 WAR over 6 years.

At $9M per win, the 23 WAR over 6 years gets us 207M.  Even at 20 WAR per 6 years, he&#039;s at 180M, meaning he averages 3.3 WAR per year.

I don&#039;t see a chance that Donaldson even considers 150/6. Donaldson is probably going to be looking at 30M+ per year. Barring a massive drop in performance or injury, I think the floor has to be 190/6, or 215/7.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Let&#8217;s say Donaldson is worth 0.5 WAR less this year and next year, bringing him to 6.6 WAR. If you assume a decline of 0.5 WAR per year, he&#8217;d likely be worth 29 WAR over a 6 year period after he&#8217;s a FA. Now, if you think that&#8217;s too optimistic, you can even drop 1 WAR per year extra, bringing him to 23 WAR over 6 years.</p>
<p>At $9M per win, the 23 WAR over 6 years gets us 207M.  Even at 20 WAR per 6 years, he&#8217;s at 180M, meaning he averages 3.3 WAR per year.</p>
<p>I don&#8217;t see a chance that Donaldson even considers 150/6. Donaldson is probably going to be looking at 30M+ per year. Barring a massive drop in performance or injury, I think the floor has to be 190/6, or 215/7.</p>
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