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	<title>Comments on: Ezequiel Carrera and the Need for Another Outfielder</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>By: Victor Amadeo</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21282</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Victor Amadeo]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 18 Jan 2017 07:45:23 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21282</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;d really like the Jays to sign Pagan, he&#039;d be a great fit, swhich hitter, fine defense, even some speed, and experience with postseason experience... so he&#039;s definitely be a great signing, and not to mention he would be cheap to get, so the Jays SHOULD get him.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d really like the Jays to sign Pagan, he&#8217;d be a great fit, swhich hitter, fine defense, even some speed, and experience with postseason experience&#8230; so he&#8217;s definitely be a great signing, and not to mention he would be cheap to get, so the Jays SHOULD get him.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21254</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 22:07:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21254</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Oh, definitely. I wasn&#039;t meaning to imply that the LF should take priority over the bullpen. That definitely needs to be addressed, and I&#039;m pretty confident it will be (the rumoured interest in Tony Watson was very interesting). 

And I really do think improvement will need to come via a combination of runs scored and prevented, which is why I wanted a defence-minded bat who can hit against RHP. You&#039;re right that the effect could be minimal, but when you&#039;re in the upper 80 win range as you suggest, every incremental gain is huge.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Oh, definitely. I wasn&#8217;t meaning to imply that the LF should take priority over the bullpen. That definitely needs to be addressed, and I&#8217;m pretty confident it will be (the rumoured interest in Tony Watson was very interesting). </p>
<p>And I really do think improvement will need to come via a combination of runs scored and prevented, which is why I wanted a defence-minded bat who can hit against RHP. You&#8217;re right that the effect could be minimal, but when you&#8217;re in the upper 80 win range as you suggest, every incremental gain is huge.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21252</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 21:45:09 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21252</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I didn&#039;t include Moss because I think he&#039;s probably going to cost too much. I actually do think he&#039;d be a really nice fit.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I didn&#8217;t include Moss because I think he&#8217;s probably going to cost too much. I actually do think he&#8217;d be a really nice fit.</p>
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		<title>By: James Dailey</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21247</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[James Dailey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 20:29:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21247</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Thank you for the thoughtful reply. I agree some sort of move is preferable, but I also think with Bautista signed the incremental add on offense is not as important as a functional bullpen. They should be top 10 in projected scoring with Bautista back and the projected RA/G for the Jays is likely overstated due to Estrada/Happ/Sanchez being FIP busters to some degree (in their own ways). If RA/G can come in in the 4.3-4.4 area (up from 4.11 in 2016), then the projected 4.7+ with Bautista would translate into a high 80&#039;s projection. I just don&#039;t see how they get meaningfully higher unless they do something like the rumored McCutch trade and completely wipe out the farm system. Otherwise, they&#039;ll need some luck and hope that enough of Betts wall scrapers turn into flyouts this year!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Thank you for the thoughtful reply. I agree some sort of move is preferable, but I also think with Bautista signed the incremental add on offense is not as important as a functional bullpen. They should be top 10 in projected scoring with Bautista back and the projected RA/G for the Jays is likely overstated due to Estrada/Happ/Sanchez being FIP busters to some degree (in their own ways). If RA/G can come in in the 4.3-4.4 area (up from 4.11 in 2016), then the projected 4.7+ with Bautista would translate into a high 80&#8217;s projection. I just don&#8217;t see how they get meaningfully higher unless they do something like the rumored McCutch trade and completely wipe out the farm system. Otherwise, they&#8217;ll need some luck and hope that enough of Betts wall scrapers turn into flyouts this year!</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21244</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 19:40:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21244</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How did you miss the best remaining option? Moss! He&#039;d have been worth 2 WAR if he was played in the OF all year, as he&#039;s a horrendous defender at 1B. Kills RHP. Plays a competent defensive OF, slightly above average even. He would destroy RHP playing half his games here.

If he&#039;s not an option, than the correct answer is DFA Smoak, Carrera is the backup, and Pompey starts. Carrera is still around as a fourth OF in case of injury, or in case Pompey struggles. 

As an aside Pagan is a potential liability on defence, as DRS says he&#039;s much worse than UZR says.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How did you miss the best remaining option? Moss! He&#8217;d have been worth 2 WAR if he was played in the OF all year, as he&#8217;s a horrendous defender at 1B. Kills RHP. Plays a competent defensive OF, slightly above average even. He would destroy RHP playing half his games here.</p>
<p>If he&#8217;s not an option, than the correct answer is DFA Smoak, Carrera is the backup, and Pompey starts. Carrera is still around as a fourth OF in case of injury, or in case Pompey struggles. </p>
<p>As an aside Pagan is a potential liability on defence, as DRS says he&#8217;s much worse than UZR says.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21242</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 18:42:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21242</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My mistake. I&#039;m not sure what happened there. 2015 was only 144 PA, unfortunately. And his overall line is still just .235/.281/.379 in that time period (I have updated the piece to reflect that, thanks). As such, there still should definitely be a platoon partner in place for him.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My mistake. I&#8217;m not sure what happened there. 2015 was only 144 PA, unfortunately. And his overall line is still just .235/.281/.379 in that time period (I have updated the piece to reflect that, thanks). As such, there still should definitely be a platoon partner in place for him.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21241</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 18:38:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21241</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;d rather see a better player too, but I&#039;m dealing with the reality that they likely don&#039;t have the budget. Though with Bruce you&#039;re possibly dealing with an outfield with statues in both corners again. His defensive metrics are so weird. He was a plus defender when young, then bad, then good, then awful. It&#039;s hard to get a proper handle on him. 

As for Zeke, he has never shown any ability to hit RHP, regardless of the sample, and wasn&#039;t a good hitter in the minors. He hasn&#039;t exactly shown anything to earn the kind of belief that he&#039;s going to flip that around.

Also, Pagan is older than Saunders, has been hurt recently, and is coming off a season where didn&#039;t he put up anything close to Saunders&#039; overall numbers (his second half slide notwithstanding). I&#039;d be legitimately shocked if he gets a contract in that range (and wouldn&#039;t want Toronto paying that).

As for Pompey, he was hurt pretty much all of last year. In 2015 he had a .114 ISO while still being very much young for the league after a .152 ISO in 2014. I never called him a power hitter, but he has more power potential than Carrera. The base point, though, was that his floor is basically what you&#039;re getting already from Zeke but with clear potential for more. I don&#039;t really know that there&#039;s an argument against that. That being said, I agree that a better hitter allowing Pompey to stay in AAA is clearly the best option.

Finally, the piece wasn&#039;t about suggesting specific alternatives. It&#039;s about the fact that they need one, whoever it is. I only listed some to show that there are options, and the type of player I believe would help.

I appreciate the feedback though. I love the discussion!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;d rather see a better player too, but I&#8217;m dealing with the reality that they likely don&#8217;t have the budget. Though with Bruce you&#8217;re possibly dealing with an outfield with statues in both corners again. His defensive metrics are so weird. He was a plus defender when young, then bad, then good, then awful. It&#8217;s hard to get a proper handle on him. </p>
<p>As for Zeke, he has never shown any ability to hit RHP, regardless of the sample, and wasn&#8217;t a good hitter in the minors. He hasn&#8217;t exactly shown anything to earn the kind of belief that he&#8217;s going to flip that around.</p>
<p>Also, Pagan is older than Saunders, has been hurt recently, and is coming off a season where didn&#8217;t he put up anything close to Saunders&#8217; overall numbers (his second half slide notwithstanding). I&#8217;d be legitimately shocked if he gets a contract in that range (and wouldn&#8217;t want Toronto paying that).</p>
<p>As for Pompey, he was hurt pretty much all of last year. In 2015 he had a .114 ISO while still being very much young for the league after a .152 ISO in 2014. I never called him a power hitter, but he has more power potential than Carrera. The base point, though, was that his floor is basically what you&#8217;re getting already from Zeke but with clear potential for more. I don&#8217;t really know that there&#8217;s an argument against that. That being said, I agree that a better hitter allowing Pompey to stay in AAA is clearly the best option.</p>
<p>Finally, the piece wasn&#8217;t about suggesting specific alternatives. It&#8217;s about the fact that they need one, whoever it is. I only listed some to show that there are options, and the type of player I believe would help.</p>
<p>I appreciate the feedback though. I love the discussion!</p>
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		<title>By: James Dailey</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21226</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[James Dailey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 15:56:50 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21226</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I agree with Mark - Josh is typically a pretty good analyst, but I think he is suffering from some confirmation bias with this analysis. I am by no means thrilled with the LF situation (Bautista should probably be moved there), but the proposed &quot;upgrades&quot; to a Zeke/Upton &quot;platoon&quot; are wanting. First, the entire premise about Zeke not being able to hit RHP is based upon a grand total of 726 career plate appearances, with only about 400 of those over the past 2 seasons. In comparison, Upton has over 4,000 MLB ab&#039;s against RHP. Second, Pagan will mostly likely not come cheaply given his service time and could reasonably be projected to be a 1-2 WAR player in 2017, Also do we really want another roster spot taken up by an aging veteran who may have trouble staying healthy? Given what Saunders just signed for, why won&#039;t Pagan command something similar or even more? Finally, panicky relegation of Pompey&#039;s career is a good example of...well panic. His .702 OPS and .083 ISO at AAA last year belies the idea that he has some &quot;pop&quot; at this stage/level - in comparison Zeke put up .679 and .107 at MLB level. Is it a good idea to stunt whatever potential development Pompey may still have based upon the hope he&#039;ll hit RHP better than Zeke in 2017...with basically very little in the way of evidence that the probabilities of that occurring are discernible or significant. 

I&#039;d rather see a trade for the much despised Jay Bruce - a Bruce/Upton platoon could be a 2-4 WAR &quot;player&quot;. Their splits last year (which are reasonably reflective of career level) would have produced about a 126 wRC+ and about an .870 OPS. To place that into perspective, Bautista is projected to OPS around .850 in 2017. Also, Upton provides valuable/serviceable depth behind Pillar in CF.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I agree with Mark &#8211; Josh is typically a pretty good analyst, but I think he is suffering from some confirmation bias with this analysis. I am by no means thrilled with the LF situation (Bautista should probably be moved there), but the proposed &#8220;upgrades&#8221; to a Zeke/Upton &#8220;platoon&#8221; are wanting. First, the entire premise about Zeke not being able to hit RHP is based upon a grand total of 726 career plate appearances, with only about 400 of those over the past 2 seasons. In comparison, Upton has over 4,000 MLB ab&#8217;s against RHP. Second, Pagan will mostly likely not come cheaply given his service time and could reasonably be projected to be a 1-2 WAR player in 2017, Also do we really want another roster spot taken up by an aging veteran who may have trouble staying healthy? Given what Saunders just signed for, why won&#8217;t Pagan command something similar or even more? Finally, panicky relegation of Pompey&#8217;s career is a good example of&#8230;well panic. His .702 OPS and .083 ISO at AAA last year belies the idea that he has some &#8220;pop&#8221; at this stage/level &#8211; in comparison Zeke put up .679 and .107 at MLB level. Is it a good idea to stunt whatever potential development Pompey may still have based upon the hope he&#8217;ll hit RHP better than Zeke in 2017&#8230;with basically very little in the way of evidence that the probabilities of that occurring are discernible or significant. </p>
<p>I&#8217;d rather see a trade for the much despised Jay Bruce &#8211; a Bruce/Upton platoon could be a 2-4 WAR &#8220;player&#8221;. Their splits last year (which are reasonably reflective of career level) would have produced about a 126 wRC+ and about an .870 OPS. To place that into perspective, Bautista is projected to OPS around .850 in 2017. Also, Upton provides valuable/serviceable depth behind Pillar in CF.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21222</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 15:06:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21222</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[First, get your splits right.  You listed Upton&#039;s splits against righties for the past year, not the past two years as written.

2016: .226 .274 .360
2015: .261 .303 .433

Upton not being able to hit RH pitching is exaggerated by the media.  Pompey, Pearce and Carrera are plenty of options for us.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>First, get your splits right.  You listed Upton&#8217;s splits against righties for the past year, not the past two years as written.</p>
<p>2016: .226 .274 .360<br />
2015: .261 .303 .433</p>
<p>Upton not being able to hit RH pitching is exaggerated by the media.  Pompey, Pearce and Carrera are plenty of options for us.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2017/01/17/ezequiel-carrera-and-the-need-for-another-outfielder/#comment-21221</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 17 Jan 2017 14:48:27 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8592#comment-21221</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Trading Upton is definitely an option that I didn&#039;t mention. Though he would only free up $1-2M.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Trading Upton is definitely an option that I didn&#8217;t mention. Though he would only free up $1-2M.</p>
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