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	<title>Comments on: By Playing it Safe, the Jays May Have Put Themselves in Danger</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>By: magua10</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19693</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[magua10]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 27 Dec 2016 21:36:51 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19693</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Only the insiders know what the budgets are for management...
The Owners ought to appreciate that this team made a significant amount of money this last year...Toronto had to be in the top four teams in all of MLB in revenues....i) fan attendance was high; ii) television viewing was high [being the only Canadian team]; and all the extra revenue that accrued from the Canadians who travelled to any game that the Jays were playing in the USA....toward the end of the season...on road trips there were more Jays fans in the stands, than for the home team...including Baltimore.

My point being the Jays have some money, and if it is spent well, then the Jays may be able to have a WS winning team...]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Only the insiders know what the budgets are for management&#8230;<br />
The Owners ought to appreciate that this team made a significant amount of money this last year&#8230;Toronto had to be in the top four teams in all of MLB in revenues&#8230;.i) fan attendance was high; ii) television viewing was high [being the only Canadian team]; and all the extra revenue that accrued from the Canadians who travelled to any game that the Jays were playing in the USA&#8230;.toward the end of the season&#8230;on road trips there were more Jays fans in the stands, than for the home team&#8230;including Baltimore.</p>
<p>My point being the Jays have some money, and if it is spent well, then the Jays may be able to have a WS winning team&#8230;</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19319</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Dec 2016 19:37:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19319</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How much adaptation is it reasonable to expect given limiting factors such as the budgets that Shapiro and Atkins have had to work with, the contracts they inherited like Tulo&#039;s and Martin&#039;s, and the dearth of prospect capital to use in trades, which is also mostly inherited? 

In addition, while the Jays aren&#039;t in a position where they&#039;re only a reasonably available player or two away from projecting to be at level of CHC or BOS, they&#039;re enough of a playoff contender to make undertaking a rebuild unpalatable.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How much adaptation is it reasonable to expect given limiting factors such as the budgets that Shapiro and Atkins have had to work with, the contracts they inherited like Tulo&#8217;s and Martin&#8217;s, and the dearth of prospect capital to use in trades, which is also mostly inherited? </p>
<p>In addition, while the Jays aren&#8217;t in a position where they&#8217;re only a reasonably available player or two away from projecting to be at level of CHC or BOS, they&#8217;re enough of a playoff contender to make undertaking a rebuild unpalatable.</p>
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		<title>By: Mike Passador</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19296</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mike Passador]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Dec 2016 18:15:22 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19296</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[That&#039;s a good point. Mid-season improvements are definitely still on the table, it&#039;s just curious that they don&#039;t pursue fixes when it will &quot;only&quot; cost money.

That gives me the impression that the organization values the limited dollars left in the budget more than their prospects. Given the fact that those prospects require extra resources and time whereas money is just money, it&#039;s not out of the realm of possibility. Not sure I agree with it, as it essentially boils down to Financial Cost &gt; Partial Financial Cost + Future Value of Prospects but it&#039;s certainly debatable. Not to hop on the Rogers Is Cheap Bandwagon, but I wouldn&#039;t be surprised if that&#039;s the case.

The other thing that suggests is they haven&#039;t see anyone available now who fits what they&#039;ve determined as their needs. That&#039;s fine, and I disagree with that hypothetical assessment, but the team obviously works with more information than we do.

It just seems like they entered with this idea of being able to adapt to the market and haven&#039;t yet done anything to actually adapt. I trust the front office though, so we&#039;ll see what happens.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>That&#8217;s a good point. Mid-season improvements are definitely still on the table, it&#8217;s just curious that they don&#8217;t pursue fixes when it will &#8220;only&#8221; cost money.</p>
<p>That gives me the impression that the organization values the limited dollars left in the budget more than their prospects. Given the fact that those prospects require extra resources and time whereas money is just money, it&#8217;s not out of the realm of possibility. Not sure I agree with it, as it essentially boils down to Financial Cost &gt; Partial Financial Cost + Future Value of Prospects but it&#8217;s certainly debatable. Not to hop on the Rogers Is Cheap Bandwagon, but I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if that&#8217;s the case.</p>
<p>The other thing that suggests is they haven&#8217;t see anyone available now who fits what they&#8217;ve determined as their needs. That&#8217;s fine, and I disagree with that hypothetical assessment, but the team obviously works with more information than we do.</p>
<p>It just seems like they entered with this idea of being able to adapt to the market and haven&#8217;t yet done anything to actually adapt. I trust the front office though, so we&#8217;ll see what happens.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19277</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 21 Dec 2016 05:35:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19277</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[They very clearly &lt;em&gt;are &lt;/em&gt;declining. They&#039;re both still very much useful players, but Tulowitzki&#039;s numbers the last two years are well off his career norms, and Martin is going to be 34 and is coming off his worst season in the last three years, after blowing past his career high in strikeouts by a very large margin and posting a career worst contact rate by over 4.5 percentage points. 

Declining does not equal bad.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They very clearly <em>are </em>declining. They&#8217;re both still very much useful players, but Tulowitzki&#8217;s numbers the last two years are well off his career norms, and Martin is going to be 34 and is coming off his worst season in the last three years, after blowing past his career high in strikeouts by a very large margin and posting a career worst contact rate by over 4.5 percentage points. </p>
<p>Declining does not equal bad.</p>
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		<title>By: James Fireman</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19261</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[James Fireman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Dec 2016 20:36:48 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19261</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I certainly agree that Sha/tkins has earned some latitude.  Almost all of their decisions have been not only defensible but have worked out quite well.

Also, last offseason the entire fanbase was screaming to extend both Bautista and Encarnacion and accused the Jays and Sha/tkins of tanking/scrimping for not having done so.  Quite clearly this was the right move as extention signed then would have been a huge overpay.

Love both EE and Bautista but they are both clearly in the decline phase of their career (both had their words years in a half decade and are in their mid-30s).  Moreover, with the Jays pitching, maintaining their very underrated defence is critical and neither Bautista or EE offer any defensive value.

It&#039;s still very early in the offseason.  Moreover, by not investing heavily in the free agent market, they will have signficant lattitude to take on contracts during the season.  That kind of flexibility can be really useful (recall David Price).  

The rotation is good enough to keep them in contention. Let&#039;s see where they go from here.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I certainly agree that Sha/tkins has earned some latitude.  Almost all of their decisions have been not only defensible but have worked out quite well.</p>
<p>Also, last offseason the entire fanbase was screaming to extend both Bautista and Encarnacion and accused the Jays and Sha/tkins of tanking/scrimping for not having done so.  Quite clearly this was the right move as extention signed then would have been a huge overpay.</p>
<p>Love both EE and Bautista but they are both clearly in the decline phase of their career (both had their words years in a half decade and are in their mid-30s).  Moreover, with the Jays pitching, maintaining their very underrated defence is critical and neither Bautista or EE offer any defensive value.</p>
<p>It&#8217;s still very early in the offseason.  Moreover, by not investing heavily in the free agent market, they will have signficant lattitude to take on contracts during the season.  That kind of flexibility can be really useful (recall David Price).  </p>
<p>The rotation is good enough to keep them in contention. Let&#8217;s see where they go from here.</p>
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		<title>By: Pat Cashman</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19253</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Pat Cashman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Dec 2016 17:47:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19253</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[How on earth do you call Tulo and Martin as declining. Tulo is still terrific defensively and so is Martin. To call them in decline is idiotic at best.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>How on earth do you call Tulo and Martin as declining. Tulo is still terrific defensively and so is Martin. To call them in decline is idiotic at best.</p>
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		<title>By: adrock</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19250</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[adrock]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 20 Dec 2016 16:42:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19250</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Is there any solid argument to be made against DFAing Smoak and bringing back Edwin at &lt;4/$80M?

If he will accept 3/$60M, even factoring in 3/$64M if you count the DFA for Smoak, that&#039;s deal most Jays fans would jump on...

I understand the rationale of the FO approach, and it seems that their assessment of the market was a reasonable one, but as the article ably points out, there&#039;s now a high chance that it backfires.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Is there any solid argument to be made against DFAing Smoak and bringing back Edwin at &lt;4/$80M?</p>
<p>If he will accept 3/$60M, even factoring in 3/$64M if you count the DFA for Smoak, that&#039;s deal most Jays fans would jump on&#8230;</p>
<p>I understand the rationale of the FO approach, and it seems that their assessment of the market was a reasonable one, but as the article ably points out, there&#039;s now a high chance that it backfires.</p>
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		<title>By: JF</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19158</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[JF]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Dec 2016 20:58:35 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19158</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Comments are being a bit harsh. I agree that they&#039;re not committing the dollars (but really the term) that premium guys require but that isn&#039;t really a bad thing given the composition of the roster. 

Facts are that the Jays are paying two declining players 20M each per season (Martin &amp; Tulo) for the next three years and we only have Donaldson (no spring chicken himself) under team control for another two. Those three eat up a lot of payroll and we have Stroman starting arb this year and Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, and Travis all entering their arb years next season. That is a lot of payroll pressure starting next off-season. Too much to make big time commitments to yet more aging sluggers.  

It&#039;d be different if we had pre-arb guys ready to step in... but we don&#039;t. So the team is (IMO prudently) looking for midrange options that won&#039;t curtail their ability to keep the younger guys on the roster through arbitration while they wait for the depleted farm system to bare some fruit.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Comments are being a bit harsh. I agree that they&#8217;re not committing the dollars (but really the term) that premium guys require but that isn&#8217;t really a bad thing given the composition of the roster. </p>
<p>Facts are that the Jays are paying two declining players 20M each per season (Martin &amp; Tulo) for the next three years and we only have Donaldson (no spring chicken himself) under team control for another two. Those three eat up a lot of payroll and we have Stroman starting arb this year and Sanchez, Osuna, Pillar, and Travis all entering their arb years next season. That is a lot of payroll pressure starting next off-season. Too much to make big time commitments to yet more aging sluggers.  </p>
<p>It&#8217;d be different if we had pre-arb guys ready to step in&#8230; but we don&#8217;t. So the team is (IMO prudently) looking for midrange options that won&#8217;t curtail their ability to keep the younger guys on the roster through arbitration while they wait for the depleted farm system to bare some fruit.</p>
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		<title>By: Corey</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19155</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Corey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Dec 2016 19:40:47 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19155</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Smoak signing. Oy vey!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Smoak signing. Oy vey!</p>
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		<title>By: Corey</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/12/19/torontos-hedging-may-have-cost-them/#comment-19154</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Corey]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 19 Dec 2016 19:39:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=8410#comment-19154</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[They&#039;ve clearly quit already. It&#039;s a rebuild without saying so. They still want the crowds that winning teams generate. Greedy Rogers. Tickets mostly sold for next season and we&#039;re hoping for the second wildcard. The Somali signing was dumb. And even taking Liriano salary is questionable if you can&#039;t keep Eddy. The Cleveland crew will eventually be run out of town, and Rogers will be dealing with sib 20K crowds. Seeing as Rogers just wrote down $525m on their failed iptv experiment, they&#039;ve gotta make somebody pay: and that&#039;s blue jays fans.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>They&#8217;ve clearly quit already. It&#8217;s a rebuild without saying so. They still want the crowds that winning teams generate. Greedy Rogers. Tickets mostly sold for next season and we&#8217;re hoping for the second wildcard. The Somali signing was dumb. And even taking Liriano salary is questionable if you can&#8217;t keep Eddy. The Cleveland crew will eventually be run out of town, and Rogers will be dealing with sib 20K crowds. Seeing as Rogers just wrote down $525m on their failed iptv experiment, they&#8217;ve gotta make somebody pay: and that&#8217;s blue jays fans.</p>
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