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	<title>Comments on: On Brett Cecil, Ignorance, and the Illusion of Happiness</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>By: Matt Moore</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15489</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Matt Moore]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 27 Oct 2016 17:10:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7334#comment-15489</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The passage you wrote about how most of the fans in attendance at what was possibly his last appearance as a Jays struck a chord with me. I remember going to a game in 1998 - probably in August - when the Twins were in town. Although Paul Molitor had not announced any retirement plans, I was sure this was his final season (and I was correct). He came to the plate late in the game, and although I stood and applauded what I felt was his final at-bat at SkyDome, I don&#039;t think anyone else knew or cared. Would have liked to seen both of them get more appreciative send-offs, they certainly deserved them.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The passage you wrote about how most of the fans in attendance at what was possibly his last appearance as a Jays struck a chord with me. I remember going to a game in 1998 &#8211; probably in August &#8211; when the Twins were in town. Although Paul Molitor had not announced any retirement plans, I was sure this was his final season (and I was correct). He came to the plate late in the game, and although I stood and applauded what I felt was his final at-bat at SkyDome, I don&#8217;t think anyone else knew or cared. Would have liked to seen both of them get more appreciative send-offs, they certainly deserved them.</p>
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		<title>By: MovieJay (@MovieJay)</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15372</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[MovieJay (@MovieJay)]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 Oct 2016 12:49:46 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[For whatever reason, Cecil only sucked at closer. Despite that, he still managed to put up a sub-3.00 ERA over 200+ IP as a reliever. Looking around at the lefty options this off-season, Chapman&#039;s in a stratosphere all his own, and I reckon he&#039;ll stay put in Chicago. On the other end, in the bargain bin, are Eveland/Matusz/C.Ramos, the latter two each having success over the years but who each decided to suck this past season. In the middle class are Dunn/Logan/Cecil. The highest ground ball % belongs to Logan, then Cecil, then trailing them badly is Dunn. If I were GM, I&#039;d be happy to re-sign Cecil. As a fan, my prediction is that we&#039;ll see either Cecil or Logan in a Jays uni for next season.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For whatever reason, Cecil only sucked at closer. Despite that, he still managed to put up a sub-3.00 ERA over 200+ IP as a reliever. Looking around at the lefty options this off-season, Chapman&#8217;s in a stratosphere all his own, and I reckon he&#8217;ll stay put in Chicago. On the other end, in the bargain bin, are Eveland/Matusz/C.Ramos, the latter two each having success over the years but who each decided to suck this past season. In the middle class are Dunn/Logan/Cecil. The highest ground ball % belongs to Logan, then Cecil, then trailing them badly is Dunn. If I were GM, I&#8217;d be happy to re-sign Cecil. As a fan, my prediction is that we&#8217;ll see either Cecil or Logan in a Jays uni for next season.</p>
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		<title>By: davetill</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15062</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[davetill]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Oct 2016 23:46:42 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Cecil has been very good at times over the years, and was especially good during the last part of 2015, but he had an awful 2016 by almost any standard. He was charged with five losses and a blown save in April, virtually never pitched in May and June, and was beaten up four more times in July to send his ERA to 6.75.

He did pitch well in low-leverage situations during the second half of the season, and recorded three holds in September after Benoit got hurt, but his season was bad enough that you could make a credible claim that Cecil, by himself, cost the Jays the division title.

From what I&#039;ve seen of him over the years, the problem is that, for him, there is a very fine line between excellence and complete ineffectiveness. This makes it difficult for a manager to rely on him in key situations.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Cecil has been very good at times over the years, and was especially good during the last part of 2015, but he had an awful 2016 by almost any standard. He was charged with five losses and a blown save in April, virtually never pitched in May and June, and was beaten up four more times in July to send his ERA to 6.75.</p>
<p>He did pitch well in low-leverage situations during the second half of the season, and recorded three holds in September after Benoit got hurt, but his season was bad enough that you could make a credible claim that Cecil, by himself, cost the Jays the division title.</p>
<p>From what I&#8217;ve seen of him over the years, the problem is that, for him, there is a very fine line between excellence and complete ineffectiveness. This makes it difficult for a manager to rely on him in key situations.</p>
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		<title>By: Joshua Howsam</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15059</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Joshua Howsam]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Oct 2016 22:07:39 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I imagine Cecil will cost way more than Grilli. Grilli has a $3M option, and Cecil probably gets close to twice that on a multi-year deal]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I imagine Cecil will cost way more than Grilli. Grilli has a $3M option, and Cecil probably gets close to twice that on a multi-year deal</p>
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		<title>By: Patrick Cashman</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15052</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Patrick Cashman]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sat, 22 Oct 2016 18:48:33 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7334#comment-15052</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I think that Toronto should make an attempt to resign Cecil at the same money Grilli is getting. Cecil performed well in the playoffs and the shortfalls he had in the regular season could have been an after effect of his Achilles injury the previous fall.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think that Toronto should make an attempt to resign Cecil at the same money Grilli is getting. Cecil performed well in the playoffs and the shortfalls he had in the regular season could have been an after effect of his Achilles injury the previous fall.</p>
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		<title>By: Gideon Turk</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15013</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2016 21:34:10 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[For sure. I do think comfort is a big thing for him, as he struggled with the closer role in 2015 as well.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>For sure. I do think comfort is a big thing for him, as he struggled with the closer role in 2015 as well.</p>
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		<title>By: Nice Article</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15010</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Nice Article]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2016 20:09:33 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I always appreciated Cecil as a great left-handed reliever...  I hope we sign him back.  He was pressed into the set-up role earlier this year, which caused him some problems, but used more as a LOOGY he&#039;s extremely valuable]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I always appreciated Cecil as a great left-handed reliever&#8230;  I hope we sign him back.  He was pressed into the set-up role earlier this year, which caused him some problems, but used more as a LOOGY he&#8217;s extremely valuable</p>
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		<title>By: Gideon Turk</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15008</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Gideon Turk]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2016 17:23:02 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7334#comment-15008</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Right, that would make sense!]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Right, that would make sense!</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15007</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2016 17:16:54 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I&#039;m not thinking the Jays will be influenced by the negative fans, but rather that if it comes to a tight decision for Cecil, he might be influenced to go to a team that doesn&#039;t have a segment of fans who are pre-disposed against him.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m not thinking the Jays will be influenced by the negative fans, but rather that if it comes to a tight decision for Cecil, he might be influenced to go to a team that doesn&#8217;t have a segment of fans who are pre-disposed against him.</p>
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		<title>By: KENII</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/10/21/on-brett-cecil-ignorance-and-the-illusion-of-happiness/#comment-15004</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[KENII]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 21 Oct 2016 14:31:29 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=7334#comment-15004</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;Instead, they chose ignorance and a false sense of happiness.&quot;

The idea that &quot;fans&quot; are deliberately choosing to remain ignorant to attain a &quot;false sense of happiness&quot; about Brett Cecil&#039;s departure (which is what seems to be implied here) is one that I totally disagree with. That only seems possible if you consider Brett Cecil in isolation in a very specific period of time with a small subset of the fan base.

First of all, a fan base is quite diverse. It&#039;s not reasonable to expect every fan to have the same level of knowledge about a team and its players. There are fans new to the game, and people who have been fans since the early &#039;90s (who have maybe seen better players than Cecil). In addition, different fans will engage with the game differently. Some fans love to look at the stats; others, not so much. There isn&#039;t really a right way to be a fan.

Secondly, I don&#039;t get the sense that fans are happy that Cecil is leaving. Maybe it&#039;s because I&#039;m hanging out with a different subset of fans. I would agree that they&#039;re not particularly disappointed about his departure, but there are obvious reasons for that if you look at what&#039;s happening with the team, as a whole, and from a psychological point of view.

For example, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion are both leaving, and they&#039;ve resonated with fans way more than Brett Cecil has so they&#039;re more salient in people&#039;s minds. I know that&#039;s not fair to Cecil, but that&#039;s psychology for you. I&#039;m willing to bet that if Bautista and Encarnacion still had a year left with the Jays, and if only Brett Cecil were leaving, then fans would notice him more and lament his departure. The media would be all over that story about how he was an All-Star, his amazing 2015 year, and the fact that he&#039;s been a Blue Jay longer than anyone else on the roster. I have no doubt that people would miss him more.

The recency effect also plays a role in how fans view a player like Brett Cecil. It&#039;s all about &quot;what have you done for me lately,&quot; where &quot;lately&quot; typically means: &quot;this past season.&quot; I think most fans would agree that Cecil had an amazing 2015. If he left after last season, fans would also have been very disappointed. By comparison, Cecil appeared to have struggled quite a bit more in 2016, which lends itself to a lot of comparison biases that could make his performance this year look worse than it actually was. 

Does Brett Cecil deserve more recognition for his time here? Yes. Are fans feigning happiness about his departure by deliberately ignoring Cecil&#039;s numbers? I think that&#039;s a bit of a stretch. That really necessitates a very sadistic, arguably sociopathic view of Blue Jays fandom, and ignores the myriad of psychological factors that influence human perception on a daily basis.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;Instead, they chose ignorance and a false sense of happiness.&#8221;</p>
<p>The idea that &#8220;fans&#8221; are deliberately choosing to remain ignorant to attain a &#8220;false sense of happiness&#8221; about Brett Cecil&#8217;s departure (which is what seems to be implied here) is one that I totally disagree with. That only seems possible if you consider Brett Cecil in isolation in a very specific period of time with a small subset of the fan base.</p>
<p>First of all, a fan base is quite diverse. It&#8217;s not reasonable to expect every fan to have the same level of knowledge about a team and its players. There are fans new to the game, and people who have been fans since the early &#8217;90s (who have maybe seen better players than Cecil). In addition, different fans will engage with the game differently. Some fans love to look at the stats; others, not so much. There isn&#8217;t really a right way to be a fan.</p>
<p>Secondly, I don&#8217;t get the sense that fans are happy that Cecil is leaving. Maybe it&#8217;s because I&#8217;m hanging out with a different subset of fans. I would agree that they&#8217;re not particularly disappointed about his departure, but there are obvious reasons for that if you look at what&#8217;s happening with the team, as a whole, and from a psychological point of view.</p>
<p>For example, Jose Bautista, and Edwin Encarnacion are both leaving, and they&#8217;ve resonated with fans way more than Brett Cecil has so they&#8217;re more salient in people&#8217;s minds. I know that&#8217;s not fair to Cecil, but that&#8217;s psychology for you. I&#8217;m willing to bet that if Bautista and Encarnacion still had a year left with the Jays, and if only Brett Cecil were leaving, then fans would notice him more and lament his departure. The media would be all over that story about how he was an All-Star, his amazing 2015 year, and the fact that he&#8217;s been a Blue Jay longer than anyone else on the roster. I have no doubt that people would miss him more.</p>
<p>The recency effect also plays a role in how fans view a player like Brett Cecil. It&#8217;s all about &#8220;what have you done for me lately,&#8221; where &#8220;lately&#8221; typically means: &#8220;this past season.&#8221; I think most fans would agree that Cecil had an amazing 2015. If he left after last season, fans would also have been very disappointed. By comparison, Cecil appeared to have struggled quite a bit more in 2016, which lends itself to a lot of comparison biases that could make his performance this year look worse than it actually was. </p>
<p>Does Brett Cecil deserve more recognition for his time here? Yes. Are fans feigning happiness about his departure by deliberately ignoring Cecil&#8217;s numbers? I think that&#8217;s a bit of a stretch. That really necessitates a very sadistic, arguably sociopathic view of Blue Jays fandom, and ignores the myriad of psychological factors that influence human perception on a daily basis.</p>
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