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	<title>Comments on: Why Brett Cecil is Not Getting Good Results</title>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10390</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2016 19:22:17 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10390</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[3 of the 5 HR he&#039;s allowed have come off a fastball, and I believe a fourth is classified as coming off a sinker. His 2 worst pitches this year via pitch fx are his sinker (228 wRC+) and his fastball (156 wRC+). I mean, they&#039;re hitting the curve a bit more than in the past, but the fastball is what&#039;s getting crushed.

I do wonder how much his splits with runners on/nobody on, are just coincidence, of if he&#039;s doing something different with runners on. But as to the fastball point - since he can&#039;t throw his curves for strikes, it seems like hitters are sitting on, and crushing his fastball.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>3 of the 5 HR he&#8217;s allowed have come off a fastball, and I believe a fourth is classified as coming off a sinker. His 2 worst pitches this year via pitch fx are his sinker (228 wRC+) and his fastball (156 wRC+). I mean, they&#8217;re hitting the curve a bit more than in the past, but the fastball is what&#8217;s getting crushed.</p>
<p>I do wonder how much his splits with runners on/nobody on, are just coincidence, of if he&#8217;s doing something different with runners on. But as to the fastball point &#8211; since he can&#8217;t throw his curves for strikes, it seems like hitters are sitting on, and crushing his fastball.</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10386</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2016 18:02:18 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10386</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While what you&#039;re saying seems plausible, I wonder how well the available data fits the narrative.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While what you&#8217;re saying seems plausible, I wonder how well the available data fits the narrative.</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10385</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2016 17:57:36 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10385</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;A small sample size that presents a statistical significance below a high threshold (e.g. 90%, 95%, 99%) is pretty much the same as working with no data at all because no meaningful conclusions can be drawn from said data.&quot;

Data that has a lower level of statistical significance isn&#039;t useless; it&#039;s just less reliable in terms of how much confidence you can have in conclusions drawn from it.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;A small sample size that presents a statistical significance below a high threshold (e.g. 90%, 95%, 99%) is pretty much the same as working with no data at all because no meaningful conclusions can be drawn from said data.&#8221;</p>
<p>Data that has a lower level of statistical significance isn&#8217;t useless; it&#8217;s just less reliable in terms of how much confidence you can have in conclusions drawn from it.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10377</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Fri, 02 Sep 2016 13:19:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10377</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The problem is, it&#039;s not luck. Yes, his HR rate is not going to remain 20%, but he was not unlucky to allow this many home runs. The reason he has allowed this many home runs is that he can&#039;t spot his curve, meaning that batters can sit on the fastball. When you&#039;re looking for one pitch, and Cecil can really only throw his fastball in the zone, then it&#039;s easy to hit that pitch hard.

The other issue is that Cecil has just been rocked by RHH. 9 of the 20 hits allowed to RHH have been for extra bases. He&#039;s just not able to get RHH out, a big change from previous years.

Additionally, he really hasn&#039;t been better in the second half. The K rate is up, but so is the BB rate, and he&#039;s allowing even more homers. 

I do kind of wonder if his struggles are related to pitching with runners on. In the past he&#039;s actually been better with guys on base, but this year he&#039;s been at his worst with guys on base. So maybe he&#039;s doing something differently with his pitches with runners on base.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The problem is, it&#8217;s not luck. Yes, his HR rate is not going to remain 20%, but he was not unlucky to allow this many home runs. The reason he has allowed this many home runs is that he can&#8217;t spot his curve, meaning that batters can sit on the fastball. When you&#8217;re looking for one pitch, and Cecil can really only throw his fastball in the zone, then it&#8217;s easy to hit that pitch hard.</p>
<p>The other issue is that Cecil has just been rocked by RHH. 9 of the 20 hits allowed to RHH have been for extra bases. He&#8217;s just not able to get RHH out, a big change from previous years.</p>
<p>Additionally, he really hasn&#8217;t been better in the second half. The K rate is up, but so is the BB rate, and he&#8217;s allowing even more homers. </p>
<p>I do kind of wonder if his struggles are related to pitching with runners on. In the past he&#8217;s actually been better with guys on base, but this year he&#8217;s been at his worst with guys on base. So maybe he&#8217;s doing something differently with his pitches with runners on base.</p>
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		<title>By: Kevin</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10349</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kevin]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2016 22:29:39 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10349</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2660&amp;position=P&amp;pitch=FA

If you look at the above chart, seems to me his fastball velocity peaked in the second half of last year. He hasn&#039;t quite reached that level this year - not consistently at least. Batters can now sit curve as he can&#039;t blow the heater past them. 

That&#039;s my take, as the curveball location looks similar enough to 2015.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p><a href="http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2660&#038;position=P&#038;pitch=FA" rel="nofollow">http://www.fangraphs.com/pitchfxo.aspx?playerid=2660&#038;position=P&#038;pitch=FA</a></p>
<p>If you look at the above chart, seems to me his fastball velocity peaked in the second half of last year. He hasn&#8217;t quite reached that level this year &#8211; not consistently at least. Batters can now sit curve as he can&#8217;t blow the heater past them. </p>
<p>That&#8217;s my take, as the curveball location looks similar enough to 2015.</p>
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		<title>By: KENII</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10348</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[KENII]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2016 22:28:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10348</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[&quot;is there any data on how well opponents have hit Cecil’s curve this year vs. last?&quot; There probably is!

&quot;The sample sizes would be small, but some data is still better than none.&quot; Not necessarily. A small sample size that presents a statistical significance below a high threshold (e.g. 90%, 95%, 99%) is pretty much the same as working with no data at all because no meaningful conclusions can be drawn from said data.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8220;is there any data on how well opponents have hit Cecil’s curve this year vs. last?&#8221; There probably is!</p>
<p>&#8220;The sample sizes would be small, but some data is still better than none.&#8221; Not necessarily. A small sample size that presents a statistical significance below a high threshold (e.g. 90%, 95%, 99%) is pretty much the same as working with no data at all because no meaningful conclusions can be drawn from said data.</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10342</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2016 20:43:05 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10342</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[This is a plausible narrative, but is there any data on how well opponents have hit Cecil&#039;s curve this year vs. last? The sample sizes would be small, but some data is still better than none.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>This is a plausible narrative, but is there any data on how well opponents have hit Cecil&#8217;s curve this year vs. last? The sample sizes would be small, but some data is still better than none.</p>
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		<title>By: walkish</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10336</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[walkish]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2016 18:24:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10336</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[....what KENII said.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>&#8230;.what KENII said.</p>
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		<title>By: walkish</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10335</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[walkish]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2016 18:23:13 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10335</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I don&#039;t see a significant difference in curve location except 3% more curves ending up in the zone high middle (these can be effective if paired with high fastball pitches) and that that more pitches in 2016 are off the left side from the catcher&#039;s perspective (I assume that these may be easier to lay off as they may not look as if they are ever in the zone?).  Also did you look at fastball speed, command?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I don&#8217;t see a significant difference in curve location except 3% more curves ending up in the zone high middle (these can be effective if paired with high fastball pitches) and that that more pitches in 2016 are off the left side from the catcher&#8217;s perspective (I assume that these may be easier to lay off as they may not look as if they are ever in the zone?).  Also did you look at fastball speed, command?</p>
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		<title>By: KENII</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/09/01/why-is-brett-cecil-not-getting-good-results/#comment-10331</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[KENII]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 01 Sep 2016 16:39:57 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=6104#comment-10331</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have a different hypothesis. I actually don&#039;t see a dramatic difference between the 2015 and 2016 strike zone heat maps. Yes, a few more percentages of pitches are missing higher in the strike zone, but that&#039;s minuscule compared to the 27 to 30% of pitches still hitting that lower left corner.

&quot;We can’t point to something in that chart and say that it is why Cecil has been struggling.&quot; I disagree. Consider how batters respond to pitch selection. The line graph shows that in 2015, Brett Cecil pitched a little more than 10% more curve balls than four-seamers. So far in 2016, he&#039;s pitched about 5% more curve balls, and almost 10% fewer four-seamers than the year before. This means that in 2016, he&#039;s pitched almost 25% fewer four-seamers than curve balls. This is significant because the effectiveness of a pitch doesn&#039;t just depend on its independent characteristics (i.e. speed, break, spin rate, etc.), it depends on how it contrasts with other pitches in the pitcher&#039;s arsenal. Throwing more of the same pitch allows batters to adjust to the pitch more easily, making it more &quot;hittable. &quot;

Sometimes I think that with all the data available and analyses that can be done these days, it&#039;s too easy to &quot;over-focus&quot; on the fine details of a player&#039;s performance, while losing sight of the big picture. Baseball&#039;s a multi-layered game, and a player&#039;s performance is affected on each layer, from the spin rate of the ball, to the biomechanics of the pitcher, pitch selection, batters they typically face, innings they&#039;re  brought into, innings worked, pitch count, weekly schedule of playing time and breaks, seasonal strategies by the manager, etc. I think it&#039;s important to consider that pitch characteristics (e.g. movement, location, and spin rate) really only gives us insight into one dimension in a multifaceted game/player.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have a different hypothesis. I actually don&#8217;t see a dramatic difference between the 2015 and 2016 strike zone heat maps. Yes, a few more percentages of pitches are missing higher in the strike zone, but that&#8217;s minuscule compared to the 27 to 30% of pitches still hitting that lower left corner.</p>
<p>&#8220;We can’t point to something in that chart and say that it is why Cecil has been struggling.&#8221; I disagree. Consider how batters respond to pitch selection. The line graph shows that in 2015, Brett Cecil pitched a little more than 10% more curve balls than four-seamers. So far in 2016, he&#8217;s pitched about 5% more curve balls, and almost 10% fewer four-seamers than the year before. This means that in 2016, he&#8217;s pitched almost 25% fewer four-seamers than curve balls. This is significant because the effectiveness of a pitch doesn&#8217;t just depend on its independent characteristics (i.e. speed, break, spin rate, etc.), it depends on how it contrasts with other pitches in the pitcher&#8217;s arsenal. Throwing more of the same pitch allows batters to adjust to the pitch more easily, making it more &#8220;hittable. &#8221;</p>
<p>Sometimes I think that with all the data available and analyses that can be done these days, it&#8217;s too easy to &#8220;over-focus&#8221; on the fine details of a player&#8217;s performance, while losing sight of the big picture. Baseball&#8217;s a multi-layered game, and a player&#8217;s performance is affected on each layer, from the spin rate of the ball, to the biomechanics of the pitcher, pitch selection, batters they typically face, innings they&#8217;re  brought into, innings worked, pitch count, weekly schedule of playing time and breaks, seasonal strategies by the manager, etc. I think it&#8217;s important to consider that pitch characteristics (e.g. movement, location, and spin rate) really only gives us insight into one dimension in a multifaceted game/player.</p>
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