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	<title>Comments on: The Jays are Missing their Regulars (and the Baseball)</title>
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		<title>By: monologue</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/23/the-jays-are-swinging-and-missing-their-regulars/#comment-9932</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[monologue]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Thu, 25 Aug 2016 03:13:43 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[Defense has also been worse (Saunders, Bautista, Travis, arguably Encarnacion, though he&#039;s been better than expected). Not suggesting to take those guys out of the lineup, but if the offense is down, every little defensive mistake becomes more costly.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Defense has also been worse (Saunders, Bautista, Travis, arguably Encarnacion, though he&#8217;s been better than expected). Not suggesting to take those guys out of the lineup, but if the offense is down, every little defensive mistake becomes more costly.</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/23/the-jays-are-swinging-and-missing-their-regulars/#comment-9910</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Wed, 24 Aug 2016 16:51:25 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[In addition, Saunders has been historically unclutch, so far less effectively productive than his stats might suggest; e.g. his almost meaningless HR last night.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>In addition, Saunders has been historically unclutch, so far less effectively productive than his stats might suggest; e.g. his almost meaningless HR last night.</p>
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		<title>By: Mark</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/08/23/the-jays-are-swinging-and-missing-their-regulars/#comment-9862</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Mark]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Tue, 23 Aug 2016 22:00:20 +0000</pubDate>
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		<description><![CDATA[I think you&#039;re kind of missing the point when you say it&#039;s the same group of regulars as last year. It&#039;s not . Reyes, while a lesser offensive player than Tulo, struck out 12% of the time last year. Tulo is closer to 20%. Revere was 250 PA for the Jays, and he was an 11% K rate vs Saunders who is 28%. Bautista has missed time with injuries, forcing lesser guys into the lineup. It&#039;s not entirely the same group. And now Upton is here, and he&#039;s a big strikeout guy.

I also think you&#039;re wrong about the 1 run games - it&#039;s not about the offence. Baltimore hits even more HR and they have a great record. It&#039;s more random than you&#039;re giving it credit for. 

The reason why the offence is doing worse is that JB is doing significantly worse than last year, that nobody could replace Cola&#039;s production on offence, and regression from some other spots (Pillar, EE, Martin), that Bautista has been injured, and the fill ins haven&#039;t been good.

The K rate by itself isn&#039;t the issue - the team has more strikeout prone players like Saunders for instance - it&#039;s that injuries and regression have made the offence worse than last year. More black holes are an issue - last year the Jays had one of the deepest lineups - now routinely the 7-8-9 spots are like an 80 wRC+. All of this factors in.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I think you&#8217;re kind of missing the point when you say it&#8217;s the same group of regulars as last year. It&#8217;s not . Reyes, while a lesser offensive player than Tulo, struck out 12% of the time last year. Tulo is closer to 20%. Revere was 250 PA for the Jays, and he was an 11% K rate vs Saunders who is 28%. Bautista has missed time with injuries, forcing lesser guys into the lineup. It&#8217;s not entirely the same group. And now Upton is here, and he&#8217;s a big strikeout guy.</p>
<p>I also think you&#8217;re wrong about the 1 run games &#8211; it&#8217;s not about the offence. Baltimore hits even more HR and they have a great record. It&#8217;s more random than you&#8217;re giving it credit for. </p>
<p>The reason why the offence is doing worse is that JB is doing significantly worse than last year, that nobody could replace Cola&#8217;s production on offence, and regression from some other spots (Pillar, EE, Martin), that Bautista has been injured, and the fill ins haven&#8217;t been good.</p>
<p>The K rate by itself isn&#8217;t the issue &#8211; the team has more strikeout prone players like Saunders for instance &#8211; it&#8217;s that injuries and regression have made the offence worse than last year. More black holes are an issue &#8211; last year the Jays had one of the deepest lineups &#8211; now routinely the 7-8-9 spots are like an 80 wRC+. All of this factors in.</p>
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