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	<title>Comments on: Recap: Rangers 6, Blue Jays 5; Late Rally Goes to Waste</title>
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	<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/recap-rangers-6-blue-jays-5-late-rally-goes-to-waste/</link>
	<description>Comprehensive coverage of the Toronto Blue Jays</description>
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		<title>By: Kyle Matte</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/recap-rangers-6-blue-jays-5-late-rally-goes-to-waste/#comment-3260</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Kyle Matte]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Mon, 16 May 2016 15:15:43 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2679#comment-3260</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[While I agree it may have been interesting to note that the Rangers had just a 53.8% chance of winning when Stubbs stepped to the plate (which obviously then became 100%), I feel like you&#039;re going completely overboard with your frustration regarding how Mike chose to phrase one sentence.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>While I agree it may have been interesting to note that the Rangers had just a 53.8% chance of winning when Stubbs stepped to the plate (which obviously then became 100%), I feel like you&#8217;re going completely overboard with your frustration regarding how Mike chose to phrase one sentence.</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/recap-rangers-6-blue-jays-5-late-rally-goes-to-waste/#comment-3197</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 May 2016 20:07:03 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2679#comment-3197</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Since WPA is a standard element in the recap format and can simply be ignored any time a reader feels like it, I don&#039;t see any issue. And if it should be omitted some of the time, what criteria would you suggest for deciding when?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Since WPA is a standard element in the recap format and can simply be ignored any time a reader feels like it, I don&#8217;t see any issue. And if it should be omitted some of the time, what criteria would you suggest for deciding when?</p>
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		<title>By: David Remski</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/recap-rangers-6-blue-jays-5-late-rally-goes-to-waste/#comment-3185</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Remski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 May 2016 16:39:06 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2679#comment-3185</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have no issue with the calculation in general, and I know exactly what it means.  If the 1.0 possibility had been referenced in the article, it would have helped.  But my issue is not with the stat, but with its inclusion in a game report where, as I said, it just sounds silly.  I get that the readers of BP want their stats fix out of the story, but it is also a narrative of the game, and in this case surely the narrative is better served by leaving out the WPA.  To me, stats are helpful when they illuminate or add to our understanding, but here this particular one adds nothing to the story.  I see WPA as helping us to winkle out the most significant of a number of tiny discrete moments that affected the outcome, but there&#039;s no need when the moment is a walk-off homer.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have no issue with the calculation in general, and I know exactly what it means.  If the 1.0 possibility had been referenced in the article, it would have helped.  But my issue is not with the stat, but with its inclusion in a game report where, as I said, it just sounds silly.  I get that the readers of BP want their stats fix out of the story, but it is also a narrative of the game, and in this case surely the narrative is better served by leaving out the WPA.  To me, stats are helpful when they illuminate or add to our understanding, but here this particular one adds nothing to the story.  I see WPA as helping us to winkle out the most significant of a number of tiny discrete moments that affected the outcome, but there&#8217;s no need when the moment is a walk-off homer.</p>
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		<title>By: Arjonn</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/recap-rangers-6-blue-jays-5-late-rally-goes-to-waste/#comment-3174</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[Arjonn]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 May 2016 14:14:37 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2679#comment-3174</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The WPA calculation just shows that Stubbs&#039; homer raised TEX&#039; WP from .538 to 1.0. I&#039;m curious what issue(s) you have with that.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The WPA calculation just shows that Stubbs&#8217; homer raised TEX&#8217; WP from .538 to 1.0. I&#8217;m curious what issue(s) you have with that.</p>
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		<title>By: David Remski</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/recap-rangers-6-blue-jays-5-late-rally-goes-to-waste/#comment-3173</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Remski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 May 2016 13:56:41 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2679#comment-3173</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[On another topic,  and this is not just for Mike but for all the correspondents who write up game reports on BP:  sometimes it&#039;s just silly to refer to the WPA.  Why would anyone go to the trouble of calculating something called, remember, &quot;Win Possibility Added&quot;, to come up with a value for a walk-off homer?  Stubbs didn&#039;t change the chances of the Rangers winning the game, he won the game.]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>On another topic,  and this is not just for Mike but for all the correspondents who write up game reports on BP:  sometimes it&#8217;s just silly to refer to the WPA.  Why would anyone go to the trouble of calculating something called, remember, &#8220;Win Possibility Added&#8221;, to come up with a value for a walk-off homer?  Stubbs didn&#8217;t change the chances of the Rangers winning the game, he won the game.</p>
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		<title>By: David Remski</title>
		<link>http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/2016/05/14/recap-rangers-6-blue-jays-5-late-rally-goes-to-waste/#comment-3172</link>
		<dc:creator><![CDATA[David Remski]]></dc:creator>
		<pubDate>Sun, 15 May 2016 13:51:26 +0000</pubDate>
		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://toronto.locals.baseballprospectus.com/?p=2679#comment-3172</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It hardly seems necessary to point out how many ways Mike is wrong about Gibbie not using Osuna in the tenth last night.  The manager&#039;s &quot;suboptimal deployment&quot; of his &quot;high leverage&quot; relievers was a no-brainer, and I&#039;m the last person to think that Gibbie is always right, because he&#039;s not, but this time he was.  Let&#039;s make a list of why:

First, you don&#039;t use your closer in extra innings on the road when the game&#039;s tied, unless you have no one left or you need to stop an imminent threat.  Once you&#039;ve burned your closer, he&#039;s burned.  
Second, Gibbie had plenty of fresh arms in the pen and no reason to jump to his closer.  Floyd is an ex-starter who can surely go two to four innings in overtime, which is what you sometimes need.  
Third, despite giving up a single in the ninth to Desmond, Floyd was in no trouble, and had just kept Beltre in the park and easily dispatched the Prince of Whiffs.  Why pull him after one inning when he&#039;d thrown well in that inning?
Fourth, sometimes you make a mistake, and sometimes even a non-entity like Stubbs, who could just as easily have worn the goat&#039;s horns as the laurel wreath for botching Bautista&#039;s drive in the ninth, can capitalize on it.  Floyd tried to sneak a breaking pitch by him on one and two, and it was too juicy.  Tant pis--Floyd&#039;s a big boy, he&#039;ll get over it.
Finally, in case anyone hasn&#039;t noticed, Osuna is still young, does give up the odd dinger himself, and is certainly less effective when he can&#039;t smell a save in the offing.  What would we have to say if Gibbie had used him in the tenth, and Stubbs had walked off on him?]]></description>
		<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It hardly seems necessary to point out how many ways Mike is wrong about Gibbie not using Osuna in the tenth last night.  The manager&#8217;s &#8220;suboptimal deployment&#8221; of his &#8220;high leverage&#8221; relievers was a no-brainer, and I&#8217;m the last person to think that Gibbie is always right, because he&#8217;s not, but this time he was.  Let&#8217;s make a list of why:</p>
<p>First, you don&#8217;t use your closer in extra innings on the road when the game&#8217;s tied, unless you have no one left or you need to stop an imminent threat.  Once you&#8217;ve burned your closer, he&#8217;s burned.<br />
Second, Gibbie had plenty of fresh arms in the pen and no reason to jump to his closer.  Floyd is an ex-starter who can surely go two to four innings in overtime, which is what you sometimes need.<br />
Third, despite giving up a single in the ninth to Desmond, Floyd was in no trouble, and had just kept Beltre in the park and easily dispatched the Prince of Whiffs.  Why pull him after one inning when he&#8217;d thrown well in that inning?<br />
Fourth, sometimes you make a mistake, and sometimes even a non-entity like Stubbs, who could just as easily have worn the goat&#8217;s horns as the laurel wreath for botching Bautista&#8217;s drive in the ninth, can capitalize on it.  Floyd tried to sneak a breaking pitch by him on one and two, and it was too juicy.  Tant pis&#8211;Floyd&#8217;s a big boy, he&#8217;ll get over it.<br />
Finally, in case anyone hasn&#8217;t noticed, Osuna is still young, does give up the odd dinger himself, and is certainly less effective when he can&#8217;t smell a save in the offing.  What would we have to say if Gibbie had used him in the tenth, and Stubbs had walked off on him?</p>
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